A V I S I O N F O R M I N N E S O TA S O L A R

L E S S O N S A N D B A R R I E R S F R O M T H E N O R T H S TA R S TAT E

John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyNovember 15, 2017

Presentation to the MnSEIA - Midwest Gateway to Solar

Installed solar capacity, Minnesota

37 MW

P R E - 2 0 1 6

N O W

???

Installed solar capacity, Minnesota

552 MW

37 MW

P R E - 2 0 1 6

N O W

T H E B I G P I C T U R E I S J U S T A S E X C I T I N G

S O L A R G R O W T H D E S T R O Y S F O R E C A S T S

Source: https://twitter.com/aukehoekstra/status/866313289306963969

Solar PV could provide fully half of global electricity by 2050

Source: http://bit.ly/2f6Anfk

S O L A R G R O W T H D E S T R O Y S F O R E C A S T S

1 I N S TA L L E V E R Y 6 0

S E C O N D S

United States, 2016

I T ’ S G E T T I N G E V E N B E T T E R

D O U B L E T H E R A N G E , S A M E P R I C E

I T ’ S C O M I N G F O R Y O U R F U R N A C E …

W H AT C O U L D S T O P U S ?

What game are we playing?A B

C

D E

What game are we playing?

“There is one great advantage that must follow regulation, and

that advantage is protection"

Samuel Insull

F I R S T S TAT E O V E R S I G H T O F M O N O P O LY U T I L I T I E S ( C . 1 9 0 5 )

M I D W E S T A N D M I D - AT L A N T I C U T I L I T Y M O N O L I T H

S E E K I N G S U B S I D I E S

O V E R - R U L I N G R E G U L AT O R S

C U T T I N G C O M P E T I T I O N

P O L I T I C A L J I U - J I T S U

C H O I C E C A N W I N

D E F E AT E D

R E V E R S E D

C A N U T I L I T I E S L E A D ?

“We come to work each day to do what we did the day before”

“An IOU divided cannot stand”

D I S R U P T I O N

Photo credits: Donnie Ray Jones and Billy Brown via Flickr

S M A R T P H O N E I M A G E

Raise your hand if you got your smartphone

from…

From your landline phone

company?

C H A N G E I S C O M I N G …

B AT T E R I E S A R E G E T T I N G C H E A P FA S T

Actual

B AT T E R I E S G I V E C U S T O M E R S C H O I C E

Number of commercial electricity customers who can subscriber to tariffs with demand charges in excess of $15/kW

Source: http://bit.ly/2gK7fdO

B AT T E R I E S G I V E C U S T O M E R S C H O I C E

Number of commercial electricity customers who can subscriber to tariffs with demand charges in excess of $15/kW

Source: http://bit.ly/2gK7fdO

S O L A R + S T O R A G E I S G E T T I N G C H E A P

E L E C T R I C I T Y C O S T P E R K W H

0

10

20

30

40

Hawaii, 2016

Solar + storageUtility electricity

V

W H AT M I N N E S O TA H A S D O N E R I G H T

A S TA N D A R D T O J U M P S TA R T T H E M A R K E T

NMState standards

NMState benchmarks

NV

AZ

NM

CO

NJ

DE

MDNJ

NM

CO

MD

AZ MN IL

Percent of sales from solar

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Installed solar

P R E S E R V E D FA I R P R I C I N G

M N VA L U E O F S O L A R ( X C E L

0

0.03

0.06

0.09

0.12

0.15

Avoided Fuel Cost

Avoided Plant O&M Fixed

Avoided Plant O&M Fixed

Avoided Gen Capacity Cost

Avoided Reserve Capacity Cost

Avoided Trans Capacity Cost

Avoided Distribution Capacity Cost

Avoided Environmental Cost12.3¢ per kWh

E X PA N D E D O N - S I T E G E N E R AT I O N

2012 2013

Net metering size limits (investor-owned utility territory)

4 0 K W 1 0 0 0 K W

E N A B L E D C O M M U N I T Y S O L A RM N C S G C A PA C I T Y

( N O V 2 0 1 7 )

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2015 2016 2017

Utility Type

- Cooperative

- Investor-Owned Utility

- Public Power

Available

Limited by tech or customer type

Utility option to offer

Virtual Net Metering Policy

Megawatts

E N A B L E D C O M M U N I T Y S O L A RM N C S G C A PA C I T Y

( N O V 2 0 1 7 )

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2015 2016 2017

Utility Type

- Cooperative

- Investor-Owned Utility

- Public Power

Available

Limited by tech or customer type

Utility option to offer

Virtual Net Metering Policy

Megawatts

S O L A R O N S C H O O L S

Credit: IPS Solar

$7.7 million over 25 years

W H AT M O R E C A N W E D O ?

30%

23%

49%47%

34%

40%

32%

50%

31%

25%35%

57%

26%

32%

39%

47%

35%

23%74%40%

34%

31%

27%

34%26%

28%

14%

34%44%

34%

44%

24%

39%

34%

42%

39%

36%

40%

33%

30%

37%

46%

30% 35%

37%

60%

53%60%

All buildings Source: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65298.pdf

R O O F T O P S O L A R P O T E N T I A L

43%

43%

POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL

ROOFTOP SOLAROver 50% 40 to 50% 25 to 40% 11 to 25%

2008 data

R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S(Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)

K E E P O N B U I L D I N G

M N C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R C A PA C I T Y ( N O V 2 0 1 7 )

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2015 2016 2017

A D D S T O R A G E

Some electricity sharing allowed

No electricity sharing

C O M M U N I T Y R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y

Solar AND wind!

I N C L U S I V E E N E R G Y F I N A N C I N G

Only improvements that save you money are

allowed

C O S T- E F F E C T I V E

The utility (like Xcel or Centerpoint) pays for the insulation, windows, or solar panels

I N C L U S I V E F I N A N C I N GM A K I N G C L E A N E N E R G Y E A S I E R T H A N A C R E D I T C A R D S W I P E

Because the utility pays the money upfront for the improvements, payment history of utility bills is used instead of credit scores.

Opens the door to financing for renters, landlords, low income homeowners.

You, the customer, sign up for better insulation, windows, a rooftop solar panels, or a share of solar on a nearby building

A C C E S S

H O W I T W O R K S

B E N E F I T S

1

2

No bank loans or new monthly bills S I M P L E

Part of the savings reduces your energy bill

3Part of the savings is used to pay for the improvements

Tariff-based

G E N E R AT I O N T R A N S M I S S I O N D I S T R I B U T I O N

3¢ 3¢ 4¢+ +P U B L I C U T I L I T Y R E G U L AT O R Y P O L I C I E S A C T

D E F E N D T H E R I G H T T O S E L L …Utilities must buy electricity from “qualifying facilities,” including wind and solar, at their

“avoided cost”

F E D E R A L L AW

G E N E R AT I O N T R A N S M I S S I O N D I S T R I B U T I O N

3¢ 3¢ 4¢+ +

Account for point of delivery

… AT A FA I R P R I C E

P U B L I C U T I L I T Y R E G U L AT O R Y P O L I C I E S A C T

F R O M E N E R G Y M O N O P O LY T O E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y

Before

After

T H A N K Y O U !@johnffarrell

www.ilsr.org

C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S

P R O V I D I N G T O O L S

1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y

H U M A N S C A L E

L O C A L O W N E R S H I P

D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y

I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N