a year’s progress and promise for the future. state leadership center for climate strategies
TRANSCRIPT
A Year’s Progress and Promise for the Future
State Leadership
www.climatestrategies.usCenter for Climate Strategies
State Climate Plan Results
Center for Climate Strategies
Cost Curves, Sectors
Center for Climate Strategies
National Scale Up
Center for Climate Strategies
National Cost Curve
Center for Climate Strategies
Matching Portfolios
Center for Climate Strategies
Policy Integration
Center for Climate Strategies
MID-RANGE CASE – 2030
-110
1.0 1.2 1.4
-50
1.8 2.00.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.20.4 0.80
-40
0.6
-20
-10 1.6
10
40
50
70
80
100
20
-100
-70
-80
30
60
90
-120
-30
-60
-90
-230
Residential electronics
Commercial electronics
Residential buildings - Lighting
Commercial LED Lighting
Commercial buildings - Combined heat & power
Industry – Combined heat and power
Residential buildings – Shell retrofits
Commercial buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency
Residential buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency
Commercial buildings – New shell improvements
Energy efficiency-related opportunities
PotentialGigatons/year
CostReal 2005 dollars per ton CO2e
Significant capture - 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act
Commercial Super T8 lighting
Refrigeratorsand commercialwater heaters
Residential water heaters
• Efficiency represents 37% of abatement potential• Substantial energy efficiency opportunity (1.3 gigatons);
primarily negative cost• Perishable (e.g., differential between new-build and retrofit
costs up to $80 per ton)• Addressing opportunity dependent upon many consumer
choices• Known and challenging barriers (e.g., agency, education,
payback) prevent capture
Energy efficiency opportunity profile
Source:McKinsey analysis
Residential NB HVAC
Controlsystems
Non-refrigeratorappliances
Conversion efficiency improvements
Source:U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2007) “Reference case;” McKinsey analysis
Terawatt-hours
2005 load
Incremental load
2030 projected
load
Buildings and appliances
Industry Trans-portation (plug-in hybrids)
2030 load
40%
Abatement categories
MID-RANGE CASE – 2030
Energy efficiency has potential to offset majority of projected build through 2030
4,11514217
1,0675,3851,520
3,865
Net gain from energy efficiency
MID-RANGE CASE – 2030
-110
1.0 1.2 1.4
-50
1.8 2.00.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.20.4 0.80
-40
0.6
-20
-10 1.6
10
40
50
70
80
100
20
-100
-70
-80
30
60
90
-120
-30
-60
-90
-230
Coal power plants – CCS new builds with EOR
Coal power plants – CCS rebuilds with EOR
Coal-to-gas shift – dispatch of existing plants
Coal power plants – CCS new builds Coal power
plants – CCS rebuilds
Distributed solar PV
PotentialGigatons/year
CostReal 2005 dollars per ton CO2e
Power sectoropportunities
Nuclear new-build
• Power sector represents 26% of abatement potential and is most capital-intensive
• Many high-potential technology options where current costs and/or business risks slow adoption
• Support required for– Research, development and deployment– Debottlenecking of business and regulatory processes
Source:McKinsey analysis
Low-carbon power opportunity profile
High-penetration onshore wind
Geothermal
Low-penetration onshore wind
Med-penetration onshore wind
Offshore wind
Small hydro
3%8%
20%
17%0%
52%
3,865
2005
1%
9%
17%
9%9%
33%
2030 with abatement
Other*Renewables
Nuclear0%
Coal with CCS
Conventionalcoal
-24%
4,115
13%
60%
5,385
2030 reference case
2%
23%
24%Gas
100% =
Energy efficiency reduction
Terawatt-hours, PercentChanges in composition of U.S. power generation
MID-RANGE CASE – 2030
*Includes oil, geothermal, municipal solid waste, and pumped storage
Source: U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2007) “Reference case“, McKinsey analysis
Energy Efficiency as a Resource
Energy efficiency is widely available, quickly deployable and the least-cost energy resource
Investment in Energy Efficiency can: • Defer the need for new generation or transmission • Help to reduce future electric costs• Create new “green collar” jobs in the local community
Helps reduce the cost of fuel – gas and coal – by reducing demand and helping rebalance marketsComplements renewable energy programs
Role of Efficiency in U.S. Economy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2001
94
9
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
Qu
ads
$ 1.7 Trillion
$ 1.0 Trillion
New Physical Supply = 25 Q
Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005
If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1% per year)
Source: Art Rosenfeld, CEC
Projected electric sales with EE&RE policies
Renewables - RPS
Renewbles - Onsite
Efficiency Savings
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
Ele
ctri
c S
ales
(Bill
ion
kWh)
2008 Consumption
20%
4%
6%
Efficiency and RenewablePolicy Impacts for Florida
2023 EE&RE Resources = 99 Billion kWh
Public Awareness Program
What do we do?
BIG Changes Needed:• Improve visibility of the energy efficiency resource
through data collection and dissemination • Facilitate investments in EE technologies and services
by expanding the range of investment options;• Promote and reward adoption of EE technologies and
services by identifying and providing social, political, and economic incentives steering behavior toward sustainable energy practices.
Panel Participants
Suzanne WatsonPolicy DirectorAmerican Council for an Energy Efficient Economywww.aceee.org
Michael SoleSecretaryFlorida Department of Environmental Protectionwww.dep.state.fl.us
Scott NyquistDirector, Global Energy & MaterialsMcKinsey & Companywww.mckinsey.com
Tom PetersonPresident & CEOCenter for Climate Strategieswww.climatestrategies.us