a1 - producing a quality cost estimate; hints, tips and best … · 2017. 5. 8. · title: a1 -...

Copyright @ 2011. All rights reserved

Producing a Quality Cost Es=mate; Hints, Tips and Best Prac=ce

Project Controls Expo -‐ 31st Oct 2012 Twickenham Stadium, London

Carl Dalton Director

Polaris Consulting Ltd


Speaker Profile -‐ Carl Dalton

o  Carl is a Fellow of the Associa=on of Cost Engineering and has over 30 years of experience in providing management and technical consultancy to governments and industry. Carl has worked for a variety of government organisa=ons and leading contractors in Europe, North America, the Far East and Australia.

o  He specialises in Cost Analysis and Project Risk Management; generally on large complex programmes. These include large aircraR and ship programmes, military and commercial vehicles, complex weapons, other transporta=on systems, soRware intensive programmes, personnel and commodi=es.

o  He is experienced in u=lising commercial available cost and risk management products and tools as well as developing bespoke solu=ons.


Index

o  What is an Es=mate o  What to include in an Es=mate o  The Es=ma=ng Process o  Types of Es=ma=ng o  Developing a Cost Es=ma=ng Tool/Model o  Data Collec=on o  Cost Engineering o  Risk o  Verifica=on and Valida=on


What is an Es=mate?

“An assessment of the likely quan%ta%ve result. Usually applied to project costs and dura9ons.”

PMI-‐Guide to the PMBOK 4th Edi=on

“An approxima%on of project 9me and cost targets that is refined throughout the project life cycle.”

APM Body of Knowledge 5th Edi=on


Es=ma=ng

o  Es=ma=ng is about helping management make decisions n  Establish what tasks/ac=vi=es are required to be completed n  Es=mate each ac=vity in terms of required resources, dura=on and cost n  Apply known facts, using relevant historical data where available, and make

assump=ons for unknown factors.

n  Apply to all ac=vi=es (work packages) n  Define accuracy/confidence n  Document to provide an audit trail to suppor=ng EVIDENCE

o  Accuracy increases as project progresses


The Tip of the Iceberg

Acquisition Cost

(R & D, Production) Training

Cost Test & Support Equipment

Cost Supply Support

(Inventory & Distribution)

Cost Transportation &

Handling Cost Facilities

Cost

Technical Data Cost


Define Cost Elements and Boundary

Cost Elements o  Development o  Produc=on o  Bringing into Opera=on/Service o  Opera=ng o  Suppor=ng o  Disposal

Es=mate Boundary o  Physical – Equipment Breakdown e.g.

Space System n  Ground sta=on n  Launcher n  Satellite n  Interfaces

o  Programme n  Quan=ty n  Phases n  Life n  Whole Life? Or Par=al Life

o  Economic n  Economic condi=ons n  Currency


Whole Life Cost Assessment Consistent Processes = Reliable Es=mates

1.  Confirm Scope and Scale of Estimating Task/Project

2.  Establish Technical Baseline, Ground Rules and Produce Cost Strategy Plan

3. Collect Data, derive assumptions, normalise and record

4.  Document assumptions and data; and agree.

5.  Establish tool, populate and generate Baseline Estimates

7.  Conduct sensitivity analysis

6.  Review, Verify Validate and discuss Estimates

8.  Quantify Risks and adjust Costs

9.  Prepare Final Report and Present Results


Es=ma=ng Start-‐up

o  Complete Es=mate Registra=on Form n  Why? n  Details of project n  Es=ma=ng requirements

o  Establish Start-‐Up mee=ng: n  Review project brief; agree project scope/deliverables n  Establish the es=ma=ng strategy n  Review current data and make assump=on n  Agree framework for the WBS n  Define responsibility & authority; lines of communica=on

o  Agendance: Key stakeholders (client/sponsor-‐PM-‐core team)


Types of Es=ma=ng Techniques

o  Cost es=ma=ng requires arithme=c opera=ons; many of which must be performed in a specified sequence

o  Parametric o  Analogy o  Scaling o  Detailed o  There is usually no single predic=ve technique/tool/model that covers

n  the whole of the life cycle and n  all of the cost elements required


When to employ different techniques

Parametric

Analogy

Engineering Build-Up Actuals

Demonstration Concept Assessment Production Support

•  Estimating often requires a combination of the above

•  Use multiple methods as a sanity/cross check


Building a Cost Es=ma=ng Model

The 6 disGnct phases of a ‘bespoke’ cost esGmaGng model development are: 1.   Scope – assess the requirements and agree with customer; 2.   Specify – define the logic with simple formulae, no embedded constants and ensure

input is only made once. No cost es=ma=ng rela=onships are to be developed in programming language; clear and open;

3.   Design – produce the most effec=ve structure and logical layout i.e. top to bogom and leR to right, for the model. Ensure there are separate worksheets for control, inputs, calcula=ons (cos=ng engine) and outputs and use freeze panes. Use agreed colour coding e.g. grey for informa=on, yellow for inputs, green for calcula=ons and blue for outputs;

4.   Develop – construc=on of the tool/model takes place with appropriate documenta=on i.e. design, verifica=on & valida=on log book together with user and future developer instruc=ons;

5.   Test – do basic checks prior to independent Verifica=on and Valida=on; 6.   Use – populate model and produce Cost es=mates.


Colour Coding Different Es=ma=ng Ac=vi=es

Start Up Data Gathering

Cost Modelling &

Analysis Report

Data and Assumptions

Validation and Verification

Tool Development

Key:

Information Inputs

Calculations

Outputs


A Cost Es=ma=ng Model

INPUTS

Def

initi

ons

e.g.

Cos

t Ele

men

ts

COSTING ENGINE

OUTPUTS

-‐ Data and Assump=ons

-‐ Cost Report

-‐ Constant Costs

-‐ Ougurn Costs

-‐ Net Present Value

-‐ Equivalent Annual Costs

Boundary

RAW DATA

Raw Data

Normalised Data

Options

Uncertainty Ranges

Key: Information Inputs

Calculations

Outputs


Data Collec=on

o  Gathering and Normalisa=on o  Data Requirements o  Data Sources o  Recording Data and

Assump=ons


Gathering and Normalisa=on

o  Major phase of any cost study; Most =me/effort consuming phase of the assessment…itera=ve…more data becomes available becomes available

o  Establish a structured approach o  Need for quality data o  Need for relevant data o  Historical cost data needs to be normalised to a common base

n  Common economic condi=ons n  Common currency n  Common allowances e.g. Profit, Tax etc.

o  Data needs to be sanity checked o  Where data is suspect; or not available assump=ons need to be made o  These need to be clear, unambiguous and agreed where-‐ever possible o  Provides background ‘EVIDENCE’


Data Requirements

o  Historical/Actuals n  Essen=al to assist in the

future predic=on of cost and schedule es=mates

n  Analogy n  Model development n  Model calibra=on

o  Candidate Solu=on n  Technical n  Physical n  Programme n  Economical

o  Alterna=ve Op=ons

o  Cost o  Effort o  Schedule o  Phase o  Labour rates o  Base Rates o  Suppor=ng technical/physical data

n  Op=on descrip=on n  Physical characteris=cs;

weight, size, material n  Use Case n  Reliability/Defects


Data Sources

o  Contractors n  Across all disciplines; Engineering, Produc=on Support….

o  Conceptual Designs/Engineering Drawings o  Bills of Materials o  Process/Rou=ng Sheets o  Master produc=on Schedules o  Accoun=ng/Finance/Historical Records/Standard Time data o  Supplier/Catalogue informa=on o  Labour rates o  Use cases o  Repair and Maintenance Schedules o  Enterprise Resource Planning Systems o  Actual hardware o  Company experts; interviews/ques=onnaires/input sheets o  Lessons learned reports o  …and don’t forget your colleagues!


Data Readiness Levels

DRL DefiniGon e.g. Sources and Indicators

DRL 1 Early Indica=on Individual Opinion

DRL 2 Consensus SME Consensus

DRL 3 Minimum level of data Limited data but not reliable source

DRL 4 Minimum data CERs; reliable source but un-‐validated es=mate

DRL 5 More detailed data Parametric modelling and sound methodology

DRL 6 Data for Business Case Calibrated parametric or bogom up es=mate

DRL 7 Pre-‐contract Pre-‐nego=a=on bid

DRL 8 Mature costs Detailed bogom up

DRL 9 All data fully mature Validated ‘actuals’


Uncertainty/Variability in Es=ma=ng

o  In source data o  In assump=ons o  In modeling approach o  …

o  Important to produce a cost es=mate based on a single currency..but; n  ORen costs/prices are

provided from suppliers etc. in different currencies

n  Use exchange rates at a common base point

n  Document values used in an Cost Data Assump=ons List

n  Conduct sensi=vity analysis to test how much the exchange rates need to move to significantly change the costs.


Document Data and Assump=ons

o  General o  Op=on Specific o  Exclusions o  Known Data o  Cost Data Assump=ons List

o  Get it agreed before detailed cost es=ma=ng


Cost Engineering

o  Ougurn; inflated to then year costs o  Constant; baseline economic

condi=on o  Discounted; allows comparison o  Normalised Outputs

n  Equivalent Annualised Costs n  Rate of Return

o  Cost Drivers

o  Cost Benefit Analysis o  Cost Effec=veness o  Design to cost o  Value Analysis o  Budgets o  Benchmarking o  Cost Control

n  Objec=ves n  Approaches n  Cost Variances n  Earned value


Output requirements

•  Outputs should be adjusted to reflect the customer’s requirements, however more often than not you can build ‘generic’ outputs to be produced within your cost model for all projects.

•  Outputs can be shown in cumulative constant costs, net present value and inflated as well as costs by budget holder, phase of project and activity.


Factors affec=ng Accuracy

o  Es=ma=ng is not an exact science. Some of the factors that affect the quality of es=mates are: n  the scope, approach and the es=ma=ng technique employed n  accurate historical data n  understanding the problem/requirement n  the availability of reliable design/technical informa=on for the candidate

system/project n  the type and size of the project n  the extent to which feedback is used n  the teams/es=mators op=mism and desire to protect own posi=on n  the es=mators skill and knowledge; or lack of it; and ability to use

appropriate judgement.


The Effects of Risks on Es=mates

o  A Point Es=mate is never correct! o  There is always poten=al variability in inputs. o  Costs of managing the Risks that we decide to manage:

n  Budget for Managed Risks o  Costs of the impacts of Risks that we decide to accept (Known-‐Unknowns):

n  Con=ngency Reserve o  Costs of the impacts of Risks that we were unaware of (Unknown-‐Unknowns):

n  Management Reserve


Risk Quan=fica=on

o  Aim: Quan=fy the effects of risk o  Input: Qualita=ve risk assessment o  Techniques:

n  Monte-‐Carlo simula=ons n  Path convergence n  Decision trees

o  Results: n  Defines range of outcomes + most likely n  May create false impression of precision and reliability


Risk Assessment -‐ Quan=ta=ve

£30M £34M

Pro

babi

lity

(%

)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Independent Verifica=on and Valida=on

o  Model should be fit-‐for-‐purpose and working correctly o  Cost model needs to be verified to confirm it meets its specifica=on o  Model and data must be documented to allow evidence for an audit trail o  In-‐built rela=onships e.g. CER should be checked o  VBA is frowned upon unless to help func=onality i.e. adding lines o  Data entry and manipula=on of data needs to be confirmed and validated o  Check for double coun=ng…missed items o  Can the Business Case costs be traced back to the cost model; have costs

changed since the previous itera=on o  Need to ensure the model can conduct:

n  Sensi=vity analysis n  Risk Analysis

o  Peer and Management Reviews


Seven Tests of a Quality Cost Es=mate

o  Objec=vity n  Is the es=mate based on objec=ve data; grounded in facts and related historical data.

Firm founda=on o  Honesty

n  Genuinely building on above data; representa=ve of the true posi=on of the bid. o  Relevance

n  Are the data and analysis relevant and per=nent to what is being es=mated o  Logic

n  Does the es=mate make sense. Are the math's correct. Are there any gaps or overlaps? o  Accuracy

n  Are you es=ma=ng processes producing accurate es=mates. Have you tested past es=mates/ougurns and made adjustments where necessary. Does an independent es=mate verify the main es=mate?

o  Holism n  Is it complete? Integrated?

o  Communicability n  Is the es=mate clear and easy to understand. How well is the cost es=mate being

communicated internally, to peers and reviewers, and externally. Is it well documented with assump=ons etc. How is the es=mate being perceived.


Know the Jargon – Acronyms -‐ Interpreta=on

A key necessity for a cost engineer is to know your Jargon-Acronyms-Interpretation • WLC – Whole Life Costs • CDEL – Cost Departmental Expenditure List • RDEL – Resource Departmental Expenditure List • CRBS – Cost Resource Breakdown Structure • CDAL – Cost Data Assumptions List • NPV – Net Present Value


Ques=ons

Carl Dalton Director

Polaris Consul=ng Ltd 07764 685332

carldalton@polarisconsul=ng.co.uk

a1 - producing a quality cost estimate; hints, tips and best … · 2017. 5. 8. · title: a1 -...

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