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20 OCT 24 OCT 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Page 1: A1 Weekly Commodity Market Trading Tips

20 OCT – 24 OCT 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: A1 Weekly Commodity Market Trading Tips

MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures fell for the second straight day as gains in equities reduced demand for

the precious metal as a haven. Palladium climbed after yesterday approaching a bear

market. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose as much as 1.9 percent, while European

shares snapped the longest slump since 2003. U.S. housing starts gained in September

after slumping a month earlier, government data showed today. Gold advanced for

the second straight week amid global economic concerns.

Last week, the metal dropped to the lowest this year on the outlook for higher U.S.

borrowing costs amid gains in the economy. Gold rebounded as the Fed signaled a

worldwide slowdown may delay interest-rate increases. Prices slumped 8.4 percent in

the third quarter as equities surged to a record. Gold futures for December delivery

fell 0.2 percent to settle at $1,239 an ounce at 1:49 p.m. on the Comex in New York.

Yesterday, the price dropped 0.3 percent. This week, futures climbed 1.4 percent.

The metal on Oct. 15 reached $1,250.30, the highest for a most-active contract since

Sept. 11. On Oct. 6, gold touched $1,183.30, the1 lowest since Dec. 31.

Brent crude extended its rebound on speculation that a 25 percent drop from this

year’s high was excessive. West Texas Intermediate was little changed after falling

below $80 yesterday. Brent pared its fourth weekly loss.

Brent for December settlement increased 34 cents to end at $86.16 on the London-

based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices touched a four-year low of $82.60

yesterday before closing up 0.8 percent. Prices are down 4.5 percent this week and

22 percent this year.

WTI for November delivery gained 5 cents to $82.75 a barrel on the New York

Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped below $80 yesterday for the first time since

2012 before ending up 1.1 percent. The futures are down 3.6 percent this week and

16 percent in 2014.

Brent traded at a premium of $4.10 to WTI for December on ICE, compared with a

front-month spread of $4.39 at the end of last week.

Brent Crude

Extends Rebound

on Speculation

Drop Excessive

Copper Still

under Radar of

Bears as Global

Growth Concerns

Remains.

Copper still under radar of bears as the global growth concerns remained on the top of

agenda. On the economic front, a Federal Reserve report on Thursday showed

industrial production in the U.S. rebounded much more than expected in September,

after an unexpected drop in production in the previous month.The Federal Reserve

said industrial production in the U.S. surged by 1.0 percent in September after edging

down by a revised 0.2 percent in August. A report from the National Association of

Home Builders showed homebuilder confidence in the U.S. to have deteriorated

notably in October, with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropping to 54

in October after jumping to a nearly nine-year high of 59 in September. In a separate

news, Society of Indian Automobiles Association (SIAM) release has shown that sales

of two wheelers registering a sharp appreciation even the production of passenger

vehicles increased sharply. The industry produced a total 2227140 vehicles including

passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers in

September 2014 as against 1818753 in September 2013, registering a growth of 22.45

percent over the same month last year. MCX Copper was trading at Rs 407.55 per kg,

down 0.35 percent. The prices have tested a high of Rs 408.65 per kg, and a low of Rs

404.5 per kg. COMEX Copper was trading at $ 2.97 per pound, down 0.04.

Gold Falls for

Second Day on

U.S., Europe

Equity Gains.

Page 3: A1 Weekly Commodity Market Trading Tips

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Oct 21 7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.11M 5.05M

Oct 22 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%

6:00pm CPI m/m 0.0% -0.2%

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 8.9M

Oct 23 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 269K 264K

6:30pm HPI m/m 0.4% 0.1%

7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.2 57.5

7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.8% 0.2%

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 94B

Oct 24 7:30pm New Home Sales 473K 504K

Page 4: A1 Weekly Commodity Market Trading Tips

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

27050 26735 26470 27455 27760 28065

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

38130 37200 36000 39400 40500 41550

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed strength in whole

week, gave breakout of double bottom

pattern and test the resistance of

27500 but not able to maintains above

the resistance level of 38.2%

retracement. Now, if it able to

maintains above 27610 then next vital

resistance is seen near the

psychological level of 28000. Contrary

if it sustain below 27050 then next

support is seen around 26500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 27650 for the target of 28050

with stop loss of 27000.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

sideways movement and trades below

its important resistance level i.e.

39400. Now, if it sustain below 38000

then next support is seen in the range

of 37000-36000. On higher side 39500

is act as important resistance level for

it above which it may test the

psychological level of 40000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 37900 for

target of 36000, with stop loss of 39500.

Page 5: A1 Weekly Commodity Market Trading Tips

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

4940 4795 4665 5200 5375 5525

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

404.20 398.45 391.80 414.40 420.50 427.05

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed highly

volatile movement found resistance

around upper band and broke lower

band of triangle pattern but unable to

closed below it. Now, if it show

reversal from lower band then

immediate resistance is seen around

61.8% retracement i.e. 412 above

which it may test upper band of

triangle. On lower side psychological

level of 400 is act as strong support.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell below 5000 for the targets of 4800,

with stop loss of 5300.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed free

fall after breakout of its important

support level i.e. 5130 and also broke

psychological level of 5000 but unable

to close below it. Now, again if it

breaks support of 5000 and closed

below it then it is in weak zone and

may find next support around 4850. If

some correction occurs then 5200 is

act as immediate resistance for it.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 404, with stop loss of 415 for the

targets of 395.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: A1 Weekly Commodity Market Trading Tips

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