a140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

49
A 140&year long historical water isotope simula8on with the 20 th century reanalysis and its comparison with climate proxy data Kei Yoshimura 1 , Lowell StoA 2 , and Masao Kanamitsu 3 1: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Ins8tute, University of Tokyo 2: Department of Geology, University of Southern California 3: Scripps Ins8tu8on of Oceanography, UCSD H 18 O H H D 16 O preliminary work

Upload: others

Post on 01-Feb-2022

5 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

A"140&year"long"historical"water"isotope"simula8on"with"the"20th"century"reanalysis"and"

its"comparison"with"climate"proxy"data�

Kei"Yoshimura1,"Lowell"StoA2,""and"Masao"Kanamitsu3"

1:"Atmosphere"and"Ocean"Research"Ins8tute,"University"of"Tokyo"2:"Department"of"Geology,"University"of"Southern"California"

3:"Scripps"Ins8tu8on"of"Oceanography,"UCSD�

H" 18O H"

H"D"16O

preliminary"work�

Page 2: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Seager"et"al.,"2007�

Will"the"Dust"Bowl"era"become""the"new"climatology??�

Page 3: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Bristlecone pine tree at SE CA

Berkelhammer"et"al.,"2009;"StoA"and"Yoshimura,"in"prep�

δ18O"in"cellulose"seems"good"indicator"for"historical"drought"events,""but"not"for"the"current"drought."�

Page 4: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Mo8va8on�

•  Specific:""Is"the"current"SW&US"drought"aAributable"to"the"global"warming?"Is"the"isotopic"data"able"to"tell"the"uniqueness"of"this"event?"

•  General:""How"accurate"are"isotopic"proxies"to"reconstruct"the"recent"climate?"Is"there"any"change"in"the"rela8onships?""

Page 5: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Stable"Water"Isotopes"and"Hydrologic"Cycle"

•  SWI"have"integrated"records"of"phase"changes"during"its"transport."

Iso Var

Iso. Var.

River Flow

H"

H"

18O

16O H"

H"

<

H"D"16O

0.20*� 0.016*�

H2O

H218O HDO

(‘Heavy’ Water) Easy to condense

(‘Light’ Water) Easy to evaporate

“Fractionation” causes large heterogeneity in time and space.

Recorded"in:""ice"core,"coral,"cellulose,"etc.etc.�

Page 6: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

•  Found"good"correla8on"between"precipita8on"isotopes"and"surface"temperature"at"mid&high"latutude"and"precipita8on"amount"at"low"la8tude"(Dansgaard,"1964).""Jus8fica8on"for"Paleoclimate"reconstruc8on"�

GNIP"Observa8on"(1960s&,"WMO/IAEA)�

Page 7: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

•  To"interpret"past"and"current"climate"informa8on"from"ice"cores,"corals,"stalagmite,"etc.,"in"various"spa8al/temporal"scales.""

•  To"detect"an"erroneous"hydrologic"process"in"the"model"and/or"evaluate"the"model"/"reanalyses"in"an"integrated"manner."""

Isotopes"are"useful…"

Page 8: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Isotope"studies"are"hot"these"days"due"to"new"remote"sensing"technology�

Poten8al"for"direct"data"assimila8on"for"isotopes!!"""different"ongoing"study�

Page 9: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Isotopes"in"GCM/RCM"

•  Incorporate"water"isotopes"as"passive"tracers"in"GCMs/RCMs."Whenever"water"phase"change"takes"place,"isotopic"water"(HDO,"H2

18O)"behave"differently"to"ordinary"water"(H2O)."

Risi"et"al."2008"Courtesy"of"JMA"

Typical"convec8ve"precipita8on"process"

Page 10: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Spectral"Nudging"+"Isotope"GSM"–"Poor&man’s&data&assimila/on&for&isotopes"–"

Use large scale (>1000km) winds from R2 to constrain dynamical field, so that the isotopic field is also constrained and reproduced in daily to inter-annual time scales.

Yoshimura and Kanamitsu, 2008; Yoshimura et al., 2008

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~kyoshimura/IsoGSM1

Previous"works�

Page 11: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Comparison"with"GNIP"Climatology"

Page 12: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Comparison"with"GNIP"Climatology"

•  Many"other"verifica8on"studies"available."Uemura"et"al.,"2008;"Abe"et"al.,"2009;"Frankenberg"et"al.,"2009;"Pfahl"and"Wernli,"2009;"Schneider"et"al,"2010;"Galewsky"and"Hurley,"2010;"Yoshimura"et"al.,"2010,"Berkelhammer"et"al.,"2011;"etc."

Page 13: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Comparison"with"Bristlecone"δ18O"

Bristlecone pine tree at SE CA

nudged

free

Extension of simulation needed!!

Page 14: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

20th"century"Reanalysis""(Compo"et"al.,"2010)�

•  Using"only"surface"pressure"data"historically"recorded"since"1870’s"

•  Ensemble"Kalman"Filter"for"data"assimila8on"(56"member)"

•  T62L28"GFS"with"NOAH"LSM"

•  Reanalysis"skill"is"comparable"to"current"Day&3"forecast"skill"(Whitaker"et"al.,"2009)"

Whitaker"et"al."(2009)�

"1"December"1918""

SLP� 500"hPa"GPH"

Page 15: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Simula8on"Design�

•  Model:"IsoGSM"(Yoshimura"et"al.,"2008)"&"River"(Yoshimura"et"

al.,"2004)"&"Simple"Biochem"(Roden"et"al.,"2000)""

•  Atmospheric"forcing:"20C"Reanalysis"(Compo"et"al.,"2010)"spectral"files,"6&hourly"ensemble"mean"field"

•  Boundary"forcing:"HadISST"•  Period:"1871&2008"

–  Stream"1:"1871&1980"–  Stream"2:"1979&2008"(for"comparison"with"Y08)"

Page 16: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Results�

•  Performance"in"the"recent"decades""("poster"available)"–  Comparison"in"global"means"with"other"global"datasets"

–  Comparison"with"GNIP"monthly"precipita8on"isotope"data"

–  Isotope"signal"related"with"AO"–  Isotope"signal"related"with"ENSO"

•  Comparison"with">100&year"proxy"isotope"data"–  Tree&ring"cellulose"δ18O"in"Cambodia"–  Coral"δ18O"near"Philippines""

Page 17: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 18: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 19: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 20: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Number of GNIP sites where correlation is significant for 1980-1999 ECHAM GISS-E IsoGSM-R2 IsoGSM-20C

Correlation NH (210) 147 171 (81%) 174 (83%) 174 (83%)

Tropics (142) 68 82 (58%) 96 (68%) 105 (74%) SH (37) 22 (60%) 18 25 (68%) 27 (73%)

Anomaly Correlation

NH (146) 13 (9%) 12 114 (78%) 93 (64%) Tropics (67) 9 12 (18%) 32 (48%) 28 (42%)

SH (29) 1 3 (10%) 12 (41%) 11 (38%)

Good Bad Good Bad

Comparison"with"GNIP"data�

Page 21: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

coral&derived"δ18Osw"vs."modeled"δ18Osw"(Annual"average)�

Kojima"and"Yoshimura,"in"prep�

�����

��

����

����

���

���

����

����

�� �

����

�����

����

�����

���

����

���

����

����� ����� ����� ����� ���� ����� ����� ����� �����

�%!����� �%!����� �!$���

Indonesia"(2N"125E)�

����

����

�����

�����

��

����

����

���

�����

������

��

�����

����

�����

����

����� ����� ����� ����� ���� ����� ����� ����� �����

coral"δ18Osw

(‰)�

�%!����� �%!����� �!$���

Philippine"(13N"124E)�

mod

eled

"δ18Osw�

coral&derived"δ18O

sw "�

Page 22: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Larger"amplitude?�

Wrong"phase?�

Cambodian"Treering"Cellulose"δ18O�

Page 23: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Comparison"with"Bristlecone"δ18O"(preliminary)"

��

��������

�������

��������

�������

��������

��

���

��

���

���

���

���

���

��

��

��

��

���

���

���

���

��

� �

��

��

��

���

���

���

���

��

� �

����

���

����

����

����

����

����

����

���

�� �

���

��

���

������

����

�� ���

�� �

������

�� �� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ���� ���� ����� ����� �� �� ����� ����� �����

#!�#!����"�$���!'���'���#!��

precipita8on"amount"(mm/s)�

surface"vapor"δ18O"(‰)�

Page 24: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Issues"�•  Rela8onship"between"Bristlecone"δ18O"and"δ18O"in"surface"vapor"remains"unclear."–  Limita8on"of"Roden"et"al."(2000)"biochem"model?"

•  Did"ensemble"mean"wind"field"properly"work?"– A"single"member"run"is"necessary."

•  More"comparison/verifica8on"is"needed."Monthly"climatology"of"moisture"divergence"contribu8on"from"transient"term�

1871&80"Jan� 1981&90"Jan�

Page 25: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Challenges�•  Is"climate"proxy"rela8onship"changing?"

–  "More"accurate"and"comprehensive"climate"reconstruc8on"will"be"achievable."

•  A"climate"reanalysis"with"isotope"informa8on?"– Simpler"model"is"newly"needed."But"how?�

Correla8on"between"temperature"and"δ18O"in"precipita8on�

Page 26: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Thanks"for"your"aAen8on.�

Any"Q&C,"send"email"to""[email protected]

Page 27: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Model Simulates Individual Storms For the Past 30 Years

The most enriched isotopic events are associated with southwesterly flow tapping into a “heavy” vapor pool

Berkelhammer"et"al.,"prep."

Page 28: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

The Current Drought is Different

Open Questions:

What implications do these ongoing changes have for aridity in the region?

Page 29: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

���

�����

�����

����

�����

��

����

���

����

����

��

����� ����� ����� ���� ����� ����� �����

Correla8on"between"spring"coral&δ18Osw"(March"to"May)"and"previous"season"NINO34"(DJF)�

Page 30: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

��

���

����

����

����

����

���

���

��������

����

�����

�������

����

���

����

����� ����� ����� ���� ����� ����� �����

Precipita=

on(m

m/m

onth)�

δ18O

sw(‰

)�

)���%(��$!���!$��� �$���"�&�&�! �

δ18Osw"from"coral"vs."precipita8on"(1year"running"average)�

��

���

����

����

����

����

���

���

��������

����

�����

�������

����

���

����

����� ����� ����� ���� ����� ����� �����

Precipita=

on(m

m/m

onth)�

δ18O

sw(‰

)�

)���%(��$!���!$��� ��$��%�

IsoGSM"precipita8on�

Local"precipita8on"(1951~2000)�

Page 31: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 32: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 33: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 34: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 35: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 36: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 37: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Simula8ng"sea"water"isotopes"(1979&2009)�

���BeAer"reproducibility"(R=0.25~0.73)"at"humid"climate"sites������

��

����

��

�����

��

����

���

����

����

����

�� �

Maiana"(2N"173E)"""""""""""""""""""r=0.35�

Papua"NewGuinea"(5S"144E)""""r=0.73� Vanuatu"(16S"167E)""""""""r"="0.42�

Philippine"(13N"124E)"""""""""r"="0.54�

��

����

���

����

����

��

�� �� ����� ����� ����� ����� �����

Seychells"(5S"54E)""""""""r"="0.41"�

����

�����

����

���

����Clipperton"(10N"108W)""""r="0.46�

:"Model� :"Obs"(Coral)�

Δ18O

sw(‰

)�

�����

��

����

�� �� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� �����

(Courtesy"of"Keitaro"Kojima)�

Page 38: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 39: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 40: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 41: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 42: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 43: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 44: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Correla8on"with"ENSO�

Page 45: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Comparison"with"AO�

Page 46: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 47: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 48: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20
Page 49: A140&yearlonghistoricalwaterisotope simula8onwiththe20

Larger"amplitude?�

R=0.324,">99%"sig.�

Cambodian"Treering"Cellulose"δ18O�