aaa thanksgiving 2012 travel forecast - home | aaa newsroom
TRANSCRIPT
1 CONFIDENTIAL FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Travel Forecast
Prepared for:
Prepared for:
American Automobile Association
November 13, 2012
1 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Table of Contents
Holiday Forecast Methodology: A Brief Overview ................................................................................................................... 2
Thanksgiving 2012 Travel Forecast ........................................................................................................................................ 3
Travel by Mode of Transportation ........................................................................................................................................... 5
Travel by Region: East North Central ..................................................................................................................................... 8
Travel by Region: East South Central ................................................................................................................................... 10
Travel by Region: Middle Atlantic ......................................................................................................................................... 12
Travel by Region: Mountain .................................................................................................................................................. 14
Travel by Region: New England............................................................................................................................................ 16
Travel by Region: Pacific ...................................................................................................................................................... 18
Travel by Region: South Atlantic ........................................................................................................................................... 20
Travel by Region: West North Central .................................................................................................................................. 22
Travel by Region: West South Central .................................................................................................................................. 24
Thanksgiving 2012 Holiday Traveler Profile Survey Methodology ....................................................................................... 26
Change in the Average Thanksgiving Traveler ..................................................................................................................... 27
Total Spending ...................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Party Composition ................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Activities ................................................................................................................................................................................ 32
Dates of Travel for Thanksgiving Trips ................................................................................................................................. 34
Addendum 1: US Economic Forecast Summary .................................................................................................................. 35
Addendum 2: US Regional Forecast Summary ................................................................................................................... 36
Regional definitions used throughout the report:
East North Central (ENC): IL, IN, MI, OH, WI
East South Central (ESC): AL, KY, MS, TN
Middle Atlantic (MATL): NJ, NY, PA
Mountain (MTN): AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY
New England (NENG): CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT
South Atlantic (SATL): DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV
West South Central (WSC): AR, LA, OK, TX
West North Central (WNC): IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD
Pacific (PAC): AK, CA, HI, OR, WA
2 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Holiday Forecast Methodology: A Brief Overview
The AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Travel Forecast combines information from several sources to provide a prospective
assessment of likely travel patterns for the upcoming holiday weekend. This report consists of two key components: the
holiday travel forecast and the holiday traveler profile. The travel forecast is based on economic conditions while the
holiday traveler profile is developed employing survey data on travel behaviors. This approach provides the most
comprehensive and detailed understanding of holiday travel at both the national and regional levels. In addition, the
regional travel sections in this report have been enhanced to incorporate information about the state of the local tourism
industries throughout the United States.
Holiday Travel Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, IHS Global Insight developed an approach to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The
economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from IHS Global Insight. These data
include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices,
interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including prices of gasoline, airline
travel, and hotel stays.
The historical travel volume estimates come from the ongoing travel survey database of D.K. Shifflet & Associates
(DKSA), the premier source of US resident travel volume and behavior. DKSA interviews over 50,000 US households per
month tracking trip incidence, party composition, traveler behavior, and spending…all after the trips have been taken.
Holiday travel is forecasted by person-trips, where a person-trip is defined as a round-trip that involves travel of 50 miles
or more away from home. In particular, AAA and IHS Global Insight forecasts total US holiday travel, travel by mode of
transportation, and travel by US census region. The Actual Travel Forecast presented in this report was prepared the
week of October 8.
Holiday Traveler Profile
The Holiday Traveler Profile is a survey of intended travel behaviors related to party composition, travel distances, trip
expenditures, and vacation activities conducted by D.K. Shifflet & Associates. The initial survey includes 1,352
households, out of which only the respondents intending to travel during the designated holiday are interviewed in detail
about their anticipated trips. For Thanksgiving 2012, 417 respondents were interviewed in detail about their intended trips.
The survey was in the field from Monday, October 1 to Thursday, October 4, 2012.
Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period
For purposes of this forecast the Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as trips that include travel of 50 miles or
more away from home during the period from Wednesday, November 21 to Sunday, November 25, 2012.
3 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Thanksgiving 2012 Travel Forecast
Travel for the 2012 Thanksgiving holiday period is expected to remain largely unchanged from 2011, as AAA and IHS
Global Insight forecast an increase in travel volume of just 0.7 percent from last year. The expected volume of 43.6 million
travelers continues the string of increasing travel volume since 2008, but the pace should slow considerably this year.
Significant economic uncertainty remains, and after two years of growth in the six to eight percent range, much of the
post-recession pent-up demand has been met and a stronger economic climate will be needed to spur higher growth
levels.
CHART 1
THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS 2001-2012
TOTAL PERSON-TRIPS*
* 2001-2011 represent actual travel results. 2012 is a forecast.
The economic outlook for the Thanksgiving holiday period remains consistent with what has been seen throughout the
year. Improvements in the unemployment rate and the housing market are welcome, but gains are less than expected and
lower than needed to spur a strong recovery. Economic growth remains muted, showing only marginal improvements from
a year ago. Further, while gas prices have eased from their most recent peak in August, they still remain above year-ago
levels and act as a further drag on travelers.
Total economic activity, measured as real gross domestic product, is expected to grow by 1.6 percent for the fourth
quarter of 2012 compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. The employment market shows a similar expectation, with fourth-
quarter unemployment forecast to average 8.2 percent, which is more than half a percentage point lower than last year,
but still higher than needed to provide a boost to the overall economy. For consumers, the effect is that real disposable
income is forecast to be up just two percent, while consumer spending is forecast to rise 3.3 percent.
Gas prices nationally increased 15 percent from early July through mid-October with averages breaking daily record highs
every day between August 20 and the end of October. During this period, gas prices in California reached an all-time high
of $4.67 a gallon on October 9. Despite recent declines that should continue through the holiday, gas prices remain very
high in comparison to historical trends and it is possible that national average prices on Thanksgiving will be the highest
on record for the holiday. Nevertheless, average gas prices during the second-half of October have dropped at speeds not
44.141.5 38.2
46.8
58.6
47.650.6
37.8 37.940.9
43.3 43.6
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(F)
(Perc
en
t C
han
ge)
(Millio
n)
Person Trips (left) % change (right)
4 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
seen since the financial crisis of 2008. AAA predicts that Hurricane Sandy should have only a limited effect on gas prices
and the national average price of gasoline should continue to drop through the end of the year and may reach as low as
$3.25-3.40 by the week of Thanksgiving. While gas prices are not expected to have a significant impact on travel volume,
prices may have an effect on holiday spending depending on how fast prices drop by Thanksgiving.
Despite the continued sluggish economic recovery, consumers remain more positive than last year. The
Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index shows increases in both current conditions and expectations
compared to last year. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index saw gains in all of its components as well, covering the
state of the economy, personal finances, and the buying climate. This overall level of positivity from the consumer, at least
compared to last year, will help offset the overall weakness in the economy to help keep travel volume ahead of last year.
The Thanksgiving holiday differs from the holidays earlier in the year in that it has a much greater focus on family. From
displaced family members congregating at a central location to college students returning home during their break, the
Thanksgiving holiday is a time to reconnect, and we don’t expect a sluggish recovery to impact Americans desire to spend
the holiday with family in 2012. The IHS Global Insight and AAA forecast of a 0.7 percent increase in travel volume will
bring the Thanksgiving 2012 travel volume up to 43.6 million person-trips. The 2012 volume represents a 15 percent
increase since 2008 and the fourth consecutive year of positive travel volume growth.
5 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
“Last year traveled to Hawaii. This
year going to a closer destination.”
Pacific Respondent
Travel by Mode of Transportation
AAA and IHS Global Insight forecast that automobile travel will account for just under 90 percent of total travel this
upcoming Thanksgiving holiday period. About 39.1 million Americans are expected to travel by automobile, which will be
an increase of 0.6 percent over the 38.9 million travelers who used this mode in 2011. With the expected growth in
automobile travelers right in line with the overall growth in travelers, that 90 percent share is nearly unchanged from 2011.
The price of gasoline remains an important issue for holiday travelers, and with
the national average price of self-serve regular as of October 31 at $3.52, it will
be an important factor in trip planning again this year. However, gas prices are
not expected to have a major impact on the share of travelers by automobile,
as the overall economic outlook favors car travel, due to its increased
convenience and lower average cost for groups when compared to air travel.
Air travel is expected to make up 7.2 percent of overall travel this holiday period, down slightly from the 7.4 percent share
seen in 2011. The 3.1 million travelers expected to fly to their destination will be 1.7 percent less than the 3.2 million who
flew in 2011. While this will be the second consecutive year of declining air travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, the total
decline since 2010 is only five percent as air travel volume seems to have leveled off at a new normal after two years of
steep declines in 2008 and 2009.
Other modes of travel (bus, trains, watercraft, multi-modal travel) will make up the remaining 2.9 percent of the total travel
volume, as just under 1.3 million travelers are expected to choose these modes. That volume is approximately 10 percent
higher than in 2011, and the resulting travel share is up from the 2.7 percent in 2011. Travel via these modes appears to
be on a slow and steady return towards historical norms after falling by more than two-thirds in 2009.
CHART 2
DISTRIBUTION OF US 2012 THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS
BY MODE OF TRANSPORTATION
Automobile
90%
Air
7%
Other
3%
6 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
CHART 3
THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS 2001-2012
AUTOMOBILE PERSON-TRIPS*
*2001-2011 represent actual travel results. 2012 is a forecast.
CHART 4
THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS 2001-2012
AIR PERSON-TRIPS*
*2001-2011 represent actual travel results. 2012 is a forecast.
36.034.4 30.8
38.8
49.9
40.243.0
32.535.5
36.8 38.9 39.1
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(F)
(Perc
en
t C
han
ge)
(Mil
lio
ns)
Person-Trips (left) % change (right)
4.88
4.454.10
4.88 5.10
4.104.44
2.50
1.57
3.31 3.20 3.14
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(F)
(Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e)
(Millio
n)
Person-Trips (left) % change (right)
7 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
CHART 5
THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS 2001-2012
OTHER TRAVEL MODES PERSON-TRIPS*
*2001-2011 represent actual travel results. 2012 is a forecast.
CHART 6
AVERAGE OCTOBER* GASOLINE PRICES
NATIONAL AVERAGE PER GALLON REGULAR UNLEADED
2001-2012
Source: AAA Fuel Gauge Report
* October gasoline prices are emphasized because prices observed several weeks prior to the holiday are likely to influence holiday travel planning, while actual holiday prices are typically less influential.
3.24
2.72
3.253.08
3.68
3.323.11
2.85
0.890.79
1.161.28
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(F)
(Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e)
(Millio
n)
Person-Trips (left) % change (right)
$1.34 $1.45
$1.56
$1.99
$2.76
$2.24
$2.80$3.09
$2.55$2.79
$3.43$3.71
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(Pe
rce
nt
Ch
ange
)
$ per Gallon (left) % change (right)
8 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
-0.9%
1.5%
6.6%
1.5%
-0.5%
1.6%
3.1%
2.0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Unemployment Rate
Real Gross State Product
Median Price New Single
Family Home
Real Disposable Personal Income
Chart 1AYOY Growth, 2011Q4 to 2012Q4
East North Central and United States
ENC Total US
Source: IHS Global Insight
Travel by Region: East North Central
The recovery in the East North Central (ENC) region has weak momentum, but has not ground to a halt. Fourth-quarter
growth looks modest (1.5 percent, compared to fourth-quarter 2011), as the two key drivers of the recovery thus far—
exports and business fixed investment—have run out of steam in the face of global economic headwinds and domestic
policy uncertainty. The recovery will eventually come to life as light-vehicle sales and housing starts—traditionally the key
drivers of recovery—gain momentum. As the ENC economy crawls forward, travel volumes are expected to increase this
Thanksgiving holiday, albeit by less than 1 percent (0.7 percent, relative to last year). Travel by automobile, which
accounts for almost 90 percent of total person-trips, is expected to rise by 0.6 percent, while airplane trips are forecast to
decline by 1.7 percent. The 7.16 million person-trips from the ENC region represent 15.3 percent of the population, which
is higher than the national frequency expected to travel (13.8 percent).
TABLE 1A
2012 THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST – EAST NORTH CENTRAL REGION AND UNITED STATES
The ENC regional economy is growing, but at a very modest pace. The forecast for real gross regional product growth is
just 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, which is on a par with the slow pace of growth that is expected nationwide. Still, the
vehicle market has been a bright spot in
the national recovery, and a key driver
of growth in the ENC. US light vehicles
sales rose 13 percent in September,
and year-to-date sales are up 14.6
percent, compared to 2011. This is
good news for Michigan and Indiana, in
particular, which are heavily dependent
on the automobile industry and durable
goods manufacturing. The combination
of an aging fleet needing replacement
and easing credit conditions continues
to support vehicle demand, which
reached a post-recession high in
September. Manufacturing is struggling,
however, due to weakness in exports
and business fixed investment. As such,
the pace of recovery remains modest.
Thanksgiving Travel
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
Total (millions of person trips) 0.7% 7.16 15.3% 0.7% 43.56 13.8%
Automobile (millions of person trips) 0.6% 6.43 13.8% 0.6% 39.14 12.4%
Air (millions of person trips) -1.7% 0.53 1.1% -1.7% 3.14 1.0%
Economy (2012Q4)
YOY %
Change Level
YOY %
Change Level
Unemployment Rate (YOY Change) -0.9% 8.0% -0.5% 8.2%
Real Gross Product ($, bn)* 1.5% 1,836 1.6% 13,649
Median Price, New Single Family Home ($, thn) 6.6% 222 3.1% 227
East North Central United States
9 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
CHART 1BREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
YOY % CHANGE
ENC Total USSource: IHS Global Insight
IL, 33.7%
IN, 13.9%MI, 18.9%
OH, 22.3%
WI, 11.1%
CHART 1CREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
EAST NORTH CENTRAL REGION MAKEUP BY STATE, 2012Q4
Source: IHS Global Insight
Although consumer sentiment improved in September, spending remains cautious. Households still face too many
negatives to allow a robust consumer spending recovery—high debt burdens, low house prices, modest employment
growth, and a lack of confidence in the government’s ability to make things better. Compared to this time last year, real
disposable income in the ENC region increased 1.5 percent, which is less than the national figure for comparison (2
percent). The fact that the debt ceiling will need to be raised sometime in the first few months of 2013 adds an unwelcome
extra complication. Extreme uncertainty over fiscal policy is likely to remain a fact of life, and a deterrent to risk-taking,
well into 2013.
On the bright side, the regional housing market appears to have turned the corner. Inventories of unsold homes are falling
fast and housing permits and starts appear set on an upward trend. Home prices are rising as well, as the median price of
new single-family units in the ENC region is expected to be 6.6 percent higher than the previous fourth quarter. As
promising as the housing numbers have been recently, it is important to keep in mind that this market is still depressed
and recent improvements have been modest. The outlook is for a modest recovery that lasts about three years, not the
sharp upswing that characterizes most housing recoveries.
In addition to the originating travel forecast
of person-trips from the East North Central
region, the following information provides a
look into the state of the local tourism
industry in the region. In general, because
the majority of travel occurs by automobile
and remains within regional borders,
regional travel ties closely with the output
generated by that region's leisure and
hospitality industry.
The tourism industry in the ENC region, as
measured by leisure and hospitality industry
output (the value of goods and services
produced by the leisure and hospitality
industry), has been growing on an
annualized basis since the third quarter of 2011, albeit at
a decreasing rate over the course of the calendar year. In
the fourth quarter of 2012, total output from the leisure
and hospitality industry in the ENC region is expected to
see minor annual growth of 0.5 percent. Chart 1B
demonstrates that the tourism industry recovery in the
ENC region has lagged the national tourism recovery in
the past two quarters.
The composition of tourism industry output by state in the
ENC region is fairly balanced (Chart 1C). With Chicago
being one of the top cities for tourism in the United
States, it is no surprise that Illinois accounts for one-third
of tourism output in the East North Central region.
Wisconsin accounts for the smallest share, with just 11.1
percent of the total.
10 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
-1.0%
1.6%
0.4%
1.7%
-0.5%
1.6%
3.1%
2.0%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Unemployment Rate
Real Gross State Product
Median Price New Single
Family Home
Real Disposable Personal Income
Chart 2AYOY Growth, 2011Q4 to 2012Q4
East South Central and United States
ESC Total US
Source: IHS Global Insight
Travel by Region: East South Central
Travel from the East South Central (ESC) region over the Thanksgiving holiday is projected to show an increase of 0.8
percent relative to Thanksgiving 2011. This represents a slightly higher bump in travel volumes than is forecast for the
national population (0.7 percent). Automobile travel is expected to increase by 0.6 percent, while air travel is expected to
decline by 1.7 percent. The recovery has slowed in recent quarters, with the crisis in Europe and slowdown in Asia
dampening consumer and business confidence nationwide. As the ESC economy crawls towards Thanksgiving, travel
volumes will inch forward at a modest pace. Total person-trips in the East South Central region are projected to account
for 13.8 percent of the population, which is on a par with the expected nationwide frequency.
TABLE 2A
2012 THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST – EAST SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND UNITED STATES
The ESC region is slowly recovering, but remains far from reaching its prerecession peak. Compared to this time last
year, real gross state product in the ESC grew by just 1.6 percent, fourth-lowest among the nine census regions.
Employment growth has been modest, with total payrolls expected to increase by just one percent in the current calendar
year. The service sectors are leading the way in terms of payroll expansion. The two areas that accounted for the largest
share of this year's employment gains were professional/business services and education/health services. Manufacturing
also posted a nice turnaround after crashing during the recession; however, the global slowdown has reduced export
growth to a low single-digit pace, thereby
constraining the expansion in
manufacturing. The unemployment rate
in the ESC stands at eight percent, down
one percentage point from Thanksgiving
2011. In the face of global economic
headwinds and domestic policy
uncertainty, employment growth remains
weak, and is expected to drive a modest
increase in holiday travel as a result.
The regional housing market continues to
make small strides. The residential real
estate market in the ESC region is in
better shape than the country as a whole.
With one of the least expensive housing
markets in the nation, the ESC region
weathered the real estate crisis better
Thanksgiving Travel
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
Total (millions of person trips) 0.8% 2.58 13.8% 0.7% 43.56 13.8%
Automobile (millions of person trips) 0.6% 2.47 13.2% 0.6% 39.14 12.4%
Air (millions of person trips) -1.7% 0.08 0.4% -1.7% 3.14 1.0%
Economy (2012Q4)
YOY %
Change Level
YOY %
Change Level
Unemployment Rate (YOY Change) -1.0% 8.0% -0.5% 8.2%
Real Gross Product ($, bn)* 1.6% 622 1.6% 13,649
Median Price, New Single Family Home ($, thn) 0.4% 166 3.1% 227
East South Central United States
11 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
CHART 2BREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
YOY % CHANGE
ESC Total USSource: IHS Global Insight
than most, protected by relatively little price speculation, an ample supply of land, and lack of a housing craze that
elsewhere led to boom and bust. As such, the median price of new single-family units is up 0.4 percent compared to this
time last year, which is lower than the degree of price appreciation experienced nationwide (3.1 percent). Slow but steady
improvements in the housing market support the modest increase forecasted for travel this Thanksgiving holiday.
In addition to the originating travel forecast of person-trips from the East South Central region, the following information
provides a look into the state of the local
tourism industry in the region. In general,
because the majority of travel occurs by
automobile and remains within regional
borders, regional travel ties closely with the
output generated by that region's leisure
and hospitality industry.
The ESC region's tourism industry has
lagged behind the national recovery over
the past year and a half. In the fourth
quarter of 2012, however, total output in
the leisure and hospitality industry is
projected to rise 1.2 percent over year-ago
levels, which is higher than the national
figure for comparison (one percent).
The share of tourism industry output in the ESC
region is rather even. Tennessee is the largest
contributing state, making up 43.7 percent of ESC
region’s tourism output, while Alabama, Kentucky,
and Mississippi make up the remaining three-fifths of
the total.
In terms of growth, Alabama is expected to see the
largest fourth-quarter increase in tourism output,
growing 2.6 percent compared to year-ago levels.
Conversely, Kentucky is forecast to experience a 0.4
percent contraction in tourism industry output.
12 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
0.3%1.9%
11.1%
1.9%
-0.5%
1.6%
3.1%2.0%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Real Gross State Product
Median Price New Single
Family Home
Real Disposable Personal Income
Chart 3AYOY Growth, 2011Q4 to 2012Q4
Middle Atlantic and United States
MATL Total US
Source: IHS Global Insight
Travel by Region: Middle Atlantic
Thanksgiving holiday travel originating from the Middle Atlantic (MATL) region is forecast to increase 0.3 percent relative
to last year. Sluggish job growth and overall weak momentum in the current recovery speak to the modest projected
increase in holiday travel originating from the MATL region. The forecast for travel by automobile calls for an increase of
0.3 percent in total person-trips, while air travel is expected to decline by two percent. About 12.4 percent of the regional
population is expected to journey at least 50 miles from home this holiday, a slightly lower frequency than is expected
nationwide (13.8 percent).
TABLE 3A
2012 THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST – MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND UNITED STATES
The Middle Atlantic region fared pretty well through the first half of 2012, averaging 1.6 percent job growth from January to
June, which is a very solid performance. As the global economy ran out of steam, however, the regional labor market
decelerated as well. Total payrolls in the MATL are expected to increase by 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, leading to an
unemployment rate of 8.6 percent, which is 0.3 percentage point higher than at this time last year. Much of western New
York state and nearly two-thirds of Pennsylvania are considered part of the Rust Belt, and these areas have been hit hard
by job losses in manufacturing. In this respect, the squeeze on foreign demand stemming from the rapidly deteriorating
global outlook is having a negative impact on the regional labor market.
In terms of real output, the Middle
Atlantic region is expected to show
modest signs of improvement in the
fourth quarter, growing 1.9 percent
compared to year-ago levels, slightly
higher than the projected increase in
real gross domestic product (1.6
percent). Consumers remain cautious
in terms of their spending decisions,
but consumer sentiment is improving,
as evidenced by the pickup in vehicle
and housing sales. Still, high gasoline
prices, sluggish employment growth,
and high debt burdens are some of the
negatives preventing a robust spending
recovery. Compared to the fourth
quarter of 2011, real disposable
Thanksgiving Travel
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
Total (millions of person trips) 0.3% 5.11 12.4% 0.7% 43.56 13.8%
Automobile (millions of person trips) 0.3% 4.58 11.1% 0.6% 39.14 12.4%
Air (millions of person trips) -2.0% 0.42 1.0% -1.7% 3.14 1.0%
Economy (2012Q4)
YOY %
Change Level
YOY %
Change Level
Unemployment Rate (YOY Change) 0.3% 8.6% -0.5% 8.2%
Real Gross Product ($, bn)* 1.9% 1,988 1.6% 13,649
Median Price, New Single Family Home ($, thn) 11.1% 345 3.1% 227
Middle Atlantic United States
13 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
CHART 3BREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
YOY % CHANGE
MATL Total USSource: IHS Global Insight
incomes are forecast to increase by just 1.9 percent in the MATL in 2012. Subtle growth in real incomes combined with
the modest increase in real output supports the small increase in predicted travel volumes originating from the Middle
Atlantic region this Thanksgiving.
The median price of new single-family homes in the MATL is expected to increase by 11.1 percent in the fourth quarter of
2012, the second-highest rate of home price appreciation among the nine census regions. As promising as the housing
numbers have been recently, it is important to keep in mind that this market is still depressed and that the recent
improvements have been modest. The MATL housing market will continue to improve, so long as the regional economy is
creating jobs. This means that the recovery will be slow, in line with the modest pace of job creation.
In addition to the originating travel forecast of
person-trips from the Middle Atlantic region, the
following information provides a look into the
state of the local tourism industry in the region.
In general, because the majority of travel occurs
by automobile and remains within regional
borders, regional travel ties closely with the
output generated by that region's leisure and
hospitality industry.
The national tourism industry has witnessed
leisure and hospitality output (the value of
goods and services produced by the leisure and
hospitality industry) expand on an annualized
basis since the third quarter of 2011. Chart 3B
shows that Middle Atlantic tourism output has
also been increasing over this same time span,
but it has been recovering slower than the
nation over the last four quarters, until the fourth
quarter of this year.
In the fourth quarter of 2012, the leisure and
hospitality industry in the Middle Atlantic is
anticipated to generate two percent higher output
than in the fourth quarter of 2011. The relative
nationwide figure for comparison is one percent
annual growth in tourism output.
New York State contributes 57.7 percent of the
Middle Atlantic region's tourism output, which is no
surprise, since New York City is one of the top tourist
destinations in the country. New York State is also
growing faster than Pennsylvania and New Jersey in
terms of tourism output, expected to increase 2.6
percent annually since one year ago. However,
Pennsylvania and New Jersey contribute large
amounts to the Middle Atlantic regional tourism
output, accounting for 23.6 and 18.7 percent,
respectively.
NJ, 18.7%
NY, 57.7%
PA, 23.6%
CHART 3CREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MAKEUP BY STATE, 2012Q4
Source: IHS Global Insight
14 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
-0.5%
1.7%
3.4%
2.1%
-0.5%
1.6%
3.1%
2.0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Unemployment Rate
Real Gross State Product
Median Price New Single
Family Home
Real Disposable Personal Income
Chart 4AYOY Growth, 2011Q4 to 2012Q4
Mountain and United States
MTN Total US
Source: IHS Global Insight
Travel by Region: Mountain
The recovery in the Mountain region is crawling forward, amid weak employment gains and fiscal policy uncertainty. As
such, the holiday travel forecast calls for a modest increase of 0.6 percent in travel volumes originating from the Mountain
states, compared to last Thanksgiving. Automobile travel is expected to rise 0.5 percent, as travelers respond to the
current high price of gasoline by reducing travel distances and forgoing air trips (down 1.8 percent). The share of the
Mountain population that is expected to travel (14.4 percent) is higher than the projected national frequency of 13.8
percent.
TABLE 4A
2012 THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST – MOUNTAIN REGION AND UNITED STATES
The Mountain region is realizing economic growth, albeit slowly. Job growth in the region is expected to outpace the
nation in the fourth quarter (1.4 percent versus 1.3 percent nationwide), although the pace of recovery remains painfully
slow. Educational services and the natural resource and mining sectors are leading the recovery in terms of payroll gains,
expanding 4.2 and 3.6 percent, respectively, compared to year-ago levels. Manufacturing and construction will also
continue to expand payrolls in the fourth quarter, but the pace of job growth has slowed considerably from the first half of
this year. The regional unemployment rate sits at eight percent, which is 0.5 percentage point lower than last
Thanksgiving, and below the national average of 8.2 percent. While the Mountain region has made strides in the past 12
months, there is still huge slack in the
labor market, which is showing a slow
underlying pace of job creation.
While the housing recovery in the
Mountain states has been unsteady
over the past two years, there is
growing evidence that the pent-up
demand for homes is finally spurring
growth. The median price of new
single-family houses is expected to
rise by 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter
of this year compared to year-ago
prices, which is higher than the
national average (3.1 percent). Higher
home prices are especially good for
the economy as they bring more
Thanksgiving Travel
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
Total (millions of person trips) 0.6% 3.28 14.4% 0.7% 43.56 13.8%
Automobile (millions of person trips) 0.5% 2.87 12.6% 0.6% 39.14 12.4%
Air (millions of person trips) -1.8% 0.20 0.9% -1.7% 3.14 1.0%
Economy (2012Q4)
YOY %
Change Level
YOY %
Change Level
Unemployment Rate (YOY Change) -0.5% 8.0% -0.5% 8.2%
Real Gross Product ($, bn)* 1.7% 890 1.6% 13,649
Median Price, New Single Family Home ($, thn) 3.4% 189 3.1% 227
Mountain United States
15 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
CHART 4BREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
YOY % CHANGE
MTN Total USSource: IHS Global Insight
builders into the game and accelerate the pickup in housing starts. Still, credit remains extremely tight for both
homeowners and builders, and credit must loosen if sales are to continue to climb. In this respect, the “fiscal cliff” brought
on by the political paralysis in the United States is, arguably, the single biggest drag on growth, as the extreme uncertainty
over fiscal policy is likely to remain a fact of life—and a deterrent to risk-taking—well into 2013. The good news is that the
underlying dynamics of recovery are in place so that growth will reignite once these high levels of uncertainty diminish.
The most likely timing for a growth rebound is late 2013 and early 2014. As such, the housing recovery will be slow, in
sync with the slow pace of overall economic growth, and will support a modest increase in travel volumes this
Thanksgiving holiday.
In addition to the originating travel
forecast of person-trips from the Mountain
region, the following information provides
a look into the state of the local tourism
industry in the region. In general, because
the majority of travel occurs by automobile
and remains within regional borders,
regional travel ties closely with the output
generated by that region's leisure and
hospitality industry.
The tourism industry in the Mountain
region, as measured by leisure and
hospitality output (the value of goods and
services produced by the leisure and
hospitality industry), has been growing on
an annual basis since the third quarter of
2011. However, the Mountain region has
been trailing the national tourism recovery until the fourth quarter of this year. In the fourth quarter of 2012, leisure and
hospitality output in the Mountain states is expected to rise 2.1 percent relative to one year ago (the national tourism
output growth rate for comparison is one percent).
Of all the Mountain states, Arizona is expected
to see the largest year-over-year increase in
tourism output in the fourth quarter (3.3
percent), followed by Colorado (2.9 percent) and
Utah (2.5 percent).
The Mountain region includes Nevada,
Colorado, and Arizona, which contribute large
amounts of tourism output to the regional total.
Nevada, which includes the major tourist city of
Las Vegas, contributes 37.8 percent of the
Mountain region's tourism output. The
remainder of the states account for much
smaller shares of the Mountain region's tourism
output.
AZ, 20.1%
CO, 21.0%
ID, 3.3%
MT, 3.1%NM, 5.3%
NV, 37.8%
UT, 6.9%WY, 2.6%
CHART 4CREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
MOUNTAIN REGION MAKEUP BY STATE, 2012Q4
Source: IHS Global Insight
16 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
-0.5%
1.6%
11.3%
2.0%
-0.5%
1.6%3.1%
2.0%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Unemployment Rate
Real Gross State Product
Median Price New Single
Family Home
Real Disposable Personal Income
Chart 5AYOY Growth, 2011Q4 to 2012Q4New England and United States
NENG Total US
Source: IHS Global Insight
Travel by Region: New England
Travel originating from the New England region is expected to increase a modest 0.6 percent over the 2011 Thanksgiving
holiday period, an increase that slightly trails the national holiday travel forecast (0.7 percent). Automobile travel from the
New England region is projected to rise 0.7 percent compared to the holiday last year, and the forecast also calls for a
decline in air travel of 1.6 percent. The forecast indicates that 13.3 percent of the New England population will travel this
upcoming Thanksgiving holiday period, which is lower than the national frequency (13.8 percent). However, a slightly
higher percentage of the regional population will travel by air than the broader nation (1.3 percent compared to one
percent).
TABLE 5A
2012 THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST – NEW ENGLAND REGION AND UNITED STATES
Uncertainties over the strength of global growth, the Eurozone crisis, the fiscal cliff, and the November elections are giving
employers plenty of reason for caution. Still, the employment numbers show that the New England labor market has
improved over the past year, with the unemployment rate falling 0.5 percentage point to 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
Some of the most important sectors that contributed to payroll growth were healthcare services; professional, scientific
and technical services; and administrative support services. It is important to note, however, that data for the most recent
months offer evidence that the regional economy has hit a soft patch, coinciding with accumulating concerns for the near-
term US and global economic outlooks. Key economic indicators show that the recovery has weak momentum, as real
gross state product is expected to
increase by just 1.6 percent,
compared to the fourth quarter of last
year. With the regional economy
crawling towards the Thanksgiving
holiday at a growth rate of less than
two percent, holiday travel in New
England is expected to increase by
just 0.6 percent, relative to last
Thanksgiving.
After adjusting for inflation, disposable
incomes in New England are expected
to rise just two percent in the fourth
quarter, compared to year-ago levels.
Weak income growth and high
Thanksgiving Travel
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
Total (millions of person trips) 0.6% 1.94 13.3% 0.7% 43.56 13.8%
Automobile (millions of person trips) 0.7% 1.71 11.7% 0.6% 39.14 12.4%
Air (millions of person trips) -1.6% 0.19 1.3% -1.7% 3.14 1.0%
Economy (2012Q4)
YOY %
Change Level
YOY %
Change Level
Unemployment Rate (YOY Change) -0.5% 6.9% -0.5% 8.2%
Real Gross Product ($, bn)* 1.6% 736 1.6% 13,649
Median Price, New Single Family Home ($, thn) 11.3% 368 3.1% 227
New England United States
17 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
CHART 5BREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
YOY % CHANGE
NENG Total USSource: IHS Global Insight
gasoline prices have forced many New Englanders to put less money aside in order to make ends meet. Households
have been aggressively reducing their debt levels over the past four years, and this process of deleveraging should ease
in the next two years, resulting in stronger growth in consumer spending. For now, however, households still face too
many negatives to allow a robust spending recovery. Consequently, holiday travel volumes are forecast to grow modestly
compared to last Thanksgiving.
Vehicles and houses are the bright spots in an otherwise muted national recovery, and New England has especially
benefitted from the revival in housing demand. Inventories of unsold homes are falling fast, and the median price of new
single-family homes is expected to increase 11.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to year-ago prices, which is the
highest rate of home price appreciation among the nine census regions. Higher home prices will bring more builders into
the game and accelerate the pickup in housing starts, which is traditionally a key driver of economic recovery. Still, as
promising as the housing numbers have been recently, it is important to keep in mind that this market is still depressed
and that the recent improvements have
been modest. The outlook is for a modest
housing recovery that lasts about three
years, not the sharp upswing that
characterizes most housing market
recoveries. As a result, the recent uptick
in home prices is not expected to have a
sizable impact on holiday travel decisions,
but should allow for higher levels of
spending on discretionary items such as
travel in the future.
In addition to the originating travel
forecast of person-trips from the New
England region, the following information
provides a look into the state of the local
tourism industry in the region. In general,
because the majority of travel occurs by
automobile and remains within regional borders,
regional travel ties closely with the output generated by
that region's leisure and hospitality industry.
Tourism output (the value of goods and services
produced by the leisure and hospitality industry) in
New England is expected to rise 1.3 percent in the
fourth quarter, relative to this time last year. In
comparison, the national tourism industry is expected
to register growth of one percent.
Massachusetts is the largest contributor of tourism
output to the New England economy, accounting for
50.8 percent of the regional total. Rhode Island and
Vermont, although smaller than Massachusetts in level
terms, are expected to see the largest growth in
tourism output since the fourth quarter of 2011, both
rising 2.9 percent.
CT, 20.6%
MA, 50.8%
ME, 8.0%
NH, 8.6%
RI, 6.8%
VT, 4.9%
CHART 5CREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
NEW ENGLAND REGION MAKEUP BY STATE, 2012Q4
Source: IHS Global Insight
18 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
-0.6%
1.8%
-0.3%
2.4%
-0.5%
1.6%
3.1%
2.0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Unemployment Rate
Real Gross State Product
Median Price New Single
Family Home
Real Disposable Personal Income
Chart 6AYOY Growth, 2011Q4 to 2012Q4
Pacific and United States
PAC Total US
Source: IHS Global Insight
Travel by Region: Pacific
The Pacific (PAC) region is continuing to undergo a slow and painful recovery. Real gross regional output growth in the
fourth quarter is expected to reach 1.8 percent, relative to the same quarter last year. While the unemployment rate has
declined 0.6 percent from last Thanksgiving, it remains the highest unemployment rate among the nine census regions,
and is expected to average 10 percent during the fourth quarter. With evidence of continued sluggish growth, total holiday
travel in the Pacific region is expected to increase by only 0.6 percent, compared to Thanksgiving 2011. This growth will
be driven by a 0.6 percent increase in automobile travel. Airplane travel, which accounts for about 10 percent of all travel,
will decline by 1.7 percent. The 7.3 million person-trips from the PAC region represent 14.3 percent of the population,
which is higher than the national frequency expected to travel of 13.8 percent.
TABLE 6A
2012 THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST – PACIFIC REGION AND UNITED STATES
The recovery in the Pacific region started off well in the beginning of 2012, with the economy recording 3.1 percent growth
in real output, relative to the first quarter of last year. However, real gross output has decelerated since then, and is
expected to increase by only 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The financial, manufacturing, and trade, transportation and
utility sectors account for nearly 50 percent of the region’s gross output. Growth in the financial sector is expected to
remain flat in the fourth quarter, while
mining (10.7 percent) and
manufacturing (6.4 percent) will show
the largest increases in output,
relative to the fourth quarter of 2011.
Despite positive output growth, the
PAC region maintains the highest
unemployment rate in the nation.
California, the region’s largest state,
contributes the most to this figure,
with an expected fourth-quarter
unemployment rate of 10.5 percent.
While most sectors are expected to
add jobs in the fourth quarter, the
reduction in the regional employment
rate will be modest.
Thanksgiving Travel
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
Total (millions of person trips) 0.6% 7.31 14.3% 0.7% 43.56 13.8%
Automobile (millions of person trips) 0.6% 6.34 12.4% 0.6% 39.14 12.4%
Air (millions of person trips) -1.7% 0.74 1.4% -1.7% 3.14 1.0%
Economy (2012Q4)
YOY %
Change Level
YOY %
Change Level
Unemployment Rate (YOY Change) -0.6% 10.0% -0.5% 8.2%
Real Gross Product ($, bn)* 1.8% 2,411 1.6% 13,649
Median Price, New Single Family Home ($, thn) -0.3% 301 3.1% 227
Pacific United States
19 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
CHART 6BREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
YOY % CHANGE
PAC Total USSource: IHS Global Insight
The housing recovery in the Pacific region remains sluggish, but it should improve now that the recovery at a national
level finally seems to be under way. California was the epicenter of the housing boom and bust, with home prices rising to
unsustainable levels in the prerecession years, and then plummeting spectacularly, bringing construction activity to a
screeching halt. Home prices are still falling, as the median price of a new single-family home is expected to decline by
0.3 percent during the fourth quarter, compared to this time last year. Thanks to increased economic activity, rising pent-
up demand, and improved affordability, the recovery should start to take hold in 2013, but it remains a strong headwind in
the near term. Low house prices, modest employment growth and high gasoline prices are some of the negatives that
households face impeding robust spending recovery. As a result, the increase in total person-trips originating from the
Pacific region will be modest, compared to Thanksgiving 2011.
In addition to the originating travel forecast
of person-trips from the Pacific region, the
following information provides a look into
the state of the local tourism industry in the
region. In general, because the majority of
travel occurs by automobile and remains
within regional borders, regional travel ties
closely with the output generated by that
region's leisure and hospitality industry.
In terms of growth in total leisure and
hospitality output (the value of goods and
services produced by the leisure and
hospitality industry), the Pacific region had
been leading the national recovery during
the second and the third quarters of 2012.
However, in the fourth quarter of 2012,
tourism output in the Pacific region will be
roughly the same as it was last year.
Washington’s tourism industry is expected to shrink by
0.7 percent during the fourth quarter, the largest
contraction among the Pacific states. Conversely,
Hawaii will experience the highest increase in tourism
output, growing 2.5 percent, relative to the fourth
quarter of last year.
The composition of tourism industry output by state in
the Pacific region is dominated by California, which
accounts for 75.5 percent of tourism output in the
region. Washington is the second largest state,
contributing 11.9 percent of tourism output to the
Pacific region.
AK, 1.4%
CA, 75.5%
HI, 5.9%
OR, 5.4%
WA, 11.9%
CHART 6CREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
PACIFIC REGION MAKEUP BY STATE, 2012Q4
Source: IHS Global Insight
20 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
-0.8%
1.3%
-0.3%
2.0%
-0.5%
1.6%
3.1%
2.0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Unemployment Rate
Real Gross State Product
Median Price New Single
Family Home
Real Disposable Personal Income
Chart 7AYOY Growth, 2011Q4 to 2012Q4South Atlantic and United States
SATL Total US
Source: IHS Global Insight
Travel by Region: South Atlantic
The South Atlantic (SATL) regional economy continues to crawl towards the Thanksgiving holiday. In the fourth quarter,
real gross regional output is projected to grow 1.3 percent, compared to this time last year, while the unemployment rate
is expected to decline 0.8 percent. Adjusted for inflation, disposable income levels are expected to be just two percent
higher than a year previous, as residents are faced with high gasoline prices, low house prices and debt burdens that are
still too high. The SATL economy has weak momentum, but has not ground to a halt, and travel volumes are expected to
increase 0.5 percent relative to last year. Automobile travel, which accounts for nearly 90 percent of total person-trips, is
expected to increase by 0.4 percent. Airplane travel is forecast to decline 1.9 percent. The share of the population from
the South Atlantic region expected to travel (13 percent) is slightly lower than the frequency projected nationwide (13.8
percent).
TABLE 7A
2012 THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST – SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION AND UNITED STATES
While the pace of recovery in the South Atlantic remains below the national average, the SATL region continues to record
positive growth. The manufacturing sector is expected to lead the recovery in the fourth quarter, with 4.4 percent growth in
real output, compared to year-ago levels. While business equipment spending growth has slowed at the national level, the
September ISM manufacturing report showed a rise in orders for the first time since May. This is a hopeful sign, but not an
“all clear.” If the mid-October increase in
the Reuters/University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Index is
maintained, this may provide a boost in
holiday sales that will benefit the SATL
manufacturing sector. The professional
and business services sector is expected
to lead the recovery in the regional labor
market, as fourth-quarter payrolls are
forecast to increase by 2.6 percent,
compared to year-ago levels. The overall
increase in employment will remain
modest, however, as the construction
sector, among others, continues to shed
jobs.
Thanksgiving Travel
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
Total (millions of person trips) 0.5% 8.02 13.0% 0.7% 43.56 13.8%
Automobile (millions of person trips) 0.4% 7.29 11.9% 0.6% 39.14 12.4%
Air (millions of person trips) -1.9% 0.56 0.9% -1.7% 3.14 1.0%
Economy (2012Q4)
YOY %
Change Level
YOY %
Change Level
Unemployment Rate (YOY Change) -0.8% 8.2% -0.5% 8.2%
Real Gross Product ($, bn)* 1.3% 2,452 1.6% 13,649
Median Price, New Single Family Home ($, thn) -0.3% 224 3.1% 227
South Atlantic United States
21 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
CHART 7BREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
YOY % CHANGE
SATL Total USSource: IHS Global Insight
Despite the recent improvements in consumer sentiment, spending decisions remain cautious. While the housing market
is beginning to demonstrate signs of growth around the country, the median price of a new single-family home in the
SATL region is expected to decline 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, relative to last year. Uncertainty about future tax
policies coupled with low house prices, sluggish employment growth, and high rates of household debt preclude a rapid
consumer spending recovery. High gasoline prices add yet another strain to household budgets. In the South Atlantic
region, gasoline prices increased nearly 16 percent between July and October of this year. With modest disposable
income gains (two percent, compared to year-ago levels), holiday travel from the SATL region is expected to increase by
just 0.5 percent in the upcoming holiday season.
In addition to the originating travel forecast of person-trips from the South Atlantic region, the following information
provides a look into the state of the local tourism industry in the region. In general, because the majority of travel occurs
by automobile and remains within regional borders, regional travel ties closely with the output generated by that region's
leisure and hospitality industry.
The tourism industry in the SATL region, as
measured by leisure and hospitality industry
output (the value of goods and services
produced by the leisure and hospitality
industry), continues to grow, albeit at a
declining pace. In the fourth quarter of
2012, total output from the leisure and
hospitality industry in the SATL region is
expected to grow by 0.9 percent from the
year prior, which is slightly below the
national average of one percent.
Florida contributes almost 41 percent of
tourism output to the South Atlantic tourism
industry, with its draw of high-profile
beaches and amusement parks in the state.
Georgia contributes the second-largest
share of tourism output with Atlanta being
one of the top cities for tourism in the
United States. Other states such as North
Carolina, Maryland and Virginia contribute
nine to twelve percent each to the region's
tourism industry.
DC, 3.8%
DE, 1.4%
FL, 40.8%
GA, 13.1%
MD, 9.2%
NC, 12.0%
SC, 6.3%
VA, 11.1%
WV, 2.2%
CHART 7CREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION MAKEUP BY STATE, 2012Q4
Source: IHS Global Insight
22 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
-0.5%
2.0%
6.3%
1.4%
-0.5%
1.6%
3.1%
2.0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Unemployment Rate
Real Gross State Product
Median Price New Single
Family Home
Real Disposable Personal Income
Chart 8AYOY Growth, 2011Q4 to 2012Q4
West North Central and United States
WNC Total US
Source: IHS Global Insight
Travel by Region: West North Central
The recovery in the West North Central (WNC) region is continuing on a slow path, albeit a faster pace than the nation.
Real gross regional product is expected to grow two percent compared to year-ago levels (versus 1.6 percent nationally),
while the regional unemployment rate is expected to fall another half-percentage point, reaching 5.8 percent by year-end
(compared to 8.2 percent nationwide). Although the region’s mining and energy sectors have performed well, the global
slowdown has reduced export growth to a low single-digit pace, and removed a key driver of the recovery thus far. With
questions over the weak momentum of the current recovery, travel originating from the WNC region is expected to
increase by just 0.9 percent over the upcoming holiday season, higher than the national increase of 0.7 percent. Travel by
automobile is expected to increase by 0.7 percent, while airplane travel is forecast to decline by 1.6 percent. While the
WNC region has one of the smallest populations in the country, 17.5 percent of the population is expected to travel, which
is well above the national average of 13.8 percent.
TABLE 8A
2012 THANKSGIVING FORECAST – WEST NORTH CENTRAL REGION AND UNITED STATES
At roughly 5.8 percent, the West North Central possesses the lowest unemployment rate of any region in the country. The
region’s mining sectors continue to generate jobs, particularly in resource-rich North Dakota, where the unemployment
rate fell to just three percent over the course of this year. The region’s service industries will also add jobs in the fourth
quarter, as will the financial sector, which benefits from a high concentration of finance firms in Omaha, and a North
Dakota energy sector that is fueling
finance job growth. Government remains
a weak spot across the country, including
the West North Central, where the
government sector will continue to shed
payrolls.
From a national perspective, the rebound
in housing activity has been one of the
lone bright spots in an otherwise weak
recovery. While the housing recovery is
still at an early stage, the WNC region
has experienced a bounce-back that
outperforms the nation. The median price
of new single-family homes in the WNC is
expected to grow 6.3 percent relative to
the fourth quarter of last year, which is
Thanksgiving Travel
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
Total (millions of person trips) 0.9% 3.65 17.5% 0.7% 43.56 13.8%
Automobile (millions of person trips) 0.7% 3.32 16.0% 0.6% 39.14 12.4%
Air (millions of person trips) -1.6% 0.16 0.8% -1.7% 3.14 1.0%
Economy (2012Q4)
YOY %
Change Level
YOY %
Change Level
Unemployment Rate (YOY Change) -0.5% 5.8% -0.5% 8.2%
Real Gross Product ($, bn)* 2.0% 872 1.6% 13,649
Median Price, New Single Family Home ($, thn) 6.3% 218 3.1% 227
West North Central United States
23 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
CHART 8BREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
YOY % CHANGE
WNC Total USSource: IHS Global Insight
more than twice the rate of home price appreciation expected nationwide (3.1 percent). Inventories of unsold homes are
falling fast, and housing permits and starts appear set on an upward trend. The outlook is for a modest recovery that lasts
about three years, not the sharp upswing that characterizes most housing recoveries.
Measured employment gains and the recent uptick in housing activity are good reasons for optimism; however, the
current recovery in the WNC remains marred by uncertainties at home and economic weaknesses abroad. While job
growth in the region is among the highest in the country, real disposable personal income growth remains sluggish (1.4
percent compared to two percent nationwide). High gasoline prices and rising food prices are acting to further constrain
household budgets, amid weak personal income gains and high debt burdens. Moreover, the nascent recovery in the
WNC housing market, while certainly encouraging, is still at a very early stage. Household net worth remains significantly
below pre-recessionary levels and the recovery is likely to be long and laborious. Also, weak export markets and low
business fixed investment are constraining the expansion of manufacturing production. A significant portion of the region’s
manufactured exports are shipped to Asia and Europe, and the recently observed slowdown in Asia and the recession in
Europe will weigh heavily on the WNC region in terms of factory employment. Therefore, despite the promising signs of
improvement, the mood remains cautious
and the recovery is likely to continue at a
modest pace. As a result, travel during the
upcoming holiday season is expected to
increase by less than one percent.
In addition to the originating travel forecast of
person-trips from the West North Central
region, the following information provides a
look into the state of the local tourism
industry in the region. In general, because
the majority of travel occurs by automobile
and remains within regional borders, regional
travel ties closely with the output generated
by that region's leisure and hospitality
industry.
Tourism in the WNC region, as measured by leisure
and hospitality industry output (the value of goods
and services produced by the leisure and hospitality
industry) has been growing at a declining pace over
the past year. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the
WNC region is expected to be the only region to see
a decline in leisure and hospitality output (down 0.3
percent). Minnesota and South Dakota are the only
states that are expected to see positive growth in
tourism output growth.
Missouri and Minnesota remain the largest
contributors to tourism output in the West North
Central region, followed by Iowa, Kansas,
Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota.
IA, 12.6%
KS, 11.2%
MN, 29.9%
MO, 31.7%
ND, 3.3%
NE, 7.1%SD, 4.3%
CHART 8CREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
WEST NORTH CENTRAL REGION MAKEUP BY STATE, 2012Q4
Source: IHS Global Insight
24 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
-0.6%
2.6%
1.3%
2.3%
-0.5%
1.6%
3.1%
2.0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Unemployment Rate
Real Gross State Product
Median Price New Single
Family Home
Real Disposable Personal Income
Chart 9AYOY Growth, 2011Q4 to 2012Q4
West South Central and United States
WSC Total US
Source: IHS Global Insight
Travel by Region: West South Central
The West South Central (WSC) region has shown relatively strong economic growth this year, expanding faster than the
rest of the country. The region continued to add jobs throughout the year, maintaining the second lowest unemployment
rate among the nine census regions (6.8 percent). With the recovery in the WSC outpacing the greater nation, total
holiday travel is expected to increase at a higher frequency than the nation at large (1.2 percent versus 0.7 percent
nationally). Automobile travel, which makes up nearly 90 percent of all travel, is expected to increase by 1.2 percent, while
airplane travel is forecast to decline by the same frequency (down 1.2 percent). The 4.5 million person-trips from the WSC
region represents 11.9 percent of the population, which is below the expected national frequency of 13.8 percent.
TABLE 9A
2012 THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST – WEST SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND UNITED STATES
Real gross regional output in the WSC has been growing steadily throughout the year, and is expected to expand by 2.6
percent in the fourth quarter (compared to 1.6 percent nationwide). Texas is the region’s largest state and the largest
contributor to regional output, while being the leading producer of oil and natural gas in the country, As such, the
performance of the WSC economy is closely tied to energy prices. Despite the fluctuation in oil prices, the mining sector
has expanded rapidly this year and is expected to continue expanding payrolls, and producing more output in the fourth-
quarter of this year, compared to year-ago
levels.
Among the nine census regions, the WSC
has the second lowest unemployment rate at
6.8 percent. The West South Central region
has led the country in recovery, expanding
faster and adding more jobs than any other
region. Both Texas and Louisiana have fully
recovered all the jobs lost during the
recession, and in Oklahoma, payrolls are
less than one percent below their previous
peak. However, as in much of the country,
the expansion has slowed in recent months,
with the crisis in Europe dampening
consumer and business confidence
nationwide. During the remainder of the
Thanksgiving Travel
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
YOY %
Change Level
% of
Population
Total (millions of person trips) 1.2% 4.51 11.9% 0.7% 43.56 13.8%
Automobile (millions of person trips) 1.2% 4.12 10.9% 0.6% 39.14 12.4%
Air (millions of person trips) -1.2% 0.28 0.8% -1.7% 3.14 1.0%
Economy (2012Q4)
YOY %
Change Level
YOY %
Change Level
Unemployment Rate (YOY Change) -0.6% 6.8% -0.5% 8.2%
Real Gross Product ($, bn)* 2.6% 1,639 1.6% 13,649
Median Price, New Single Family Home ($, thn) 1.3% 176 3.1% 227
West South Central United States
25 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4
CHART 9BREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
YOY % CHANGE
WSC Total USSource: IHS Global Insight
year, we expect the WSC economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace, unable to match the strong gains
recorded in the first quarter of the year. As a result, the expectations for total travel during the upcoming holiday season
remain modest.
The recovery in the WSC region will eventually come to life, but residents still face too many negatives to allow a robust
consumer spending recovery. High gas prices, modest employment growth, and high debt burdens are some of the
headwinds that residents face in the current economy. Real disposable income grew a mere 2.3 percent compared to the
same quarter of last year, and while the housing recovery finally seems to be under way with the median price of new
single-family units up 1.3 percent compared to year-ago prices, the recovery is still at a very early stage. Households have
been aggressively reducing their debt levels over the past four years. This process of deleveraging will ease in the next
two years, resulting in stronger growth in consumer spending and more bank lending. However, the current recovery has
weak momentum, and the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday is expected to see a modest increase in travel volumes as a
result.
In addition to the originating travel forecast
of person-trips from the West South
Central region, the following information
provides a look into the state of the local
tourism industry in the region. In general,
because the majority of travel occurs by
automobile and remains within regional
borders, regional travel ties closely with
the output generated by that region's
leisure and hospitality industry.
The WSC region’s real gross state product
from the leisure and hospitality industry
(the value of goods and services produced
by the leisure and hospitality industry)
has been growing throughout the year at a
faster pace than the nation at large. In the
fourth quarter, WSC output in leisure and
hospitality is expected to increase by two
percent.
Texas accounts for nearly three-quarters
of tourism output in the West South
Central region. Arkansas accounts for the
smallest share with just five percent of
regional tourism output.
AR, 5.0%
LA, 14.9%
OK, 7.8%
TX, 72.3%
CHART 9DREAL GROSS PRODUCT -- LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
WEST SOUTH CENTRAL REGION MAKEUP BY STATE, 2012Q4
Source: IHS Global Insight
26 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Thanksgiving 2012 Holiday Traveler Profile Survey Methodology
The Holiday Traveler Profile study, conducted by D.K. Shifflet and Associates, surveys holiday travelers regarding their
planned holiday travel including planned party composition, travel distances, trip expenditures, and activity participation.
For the Thanksgiving 2012 holiday, the survey was in the field October 1–4, 2012, and 417 respondents were interviewed
in detail about their holiday plans. This panel was designed to yield survey responses that are statistically significant at the
national level.1 Although we report detail for individual census regions, the reader should be aware that the census-region-
level results are not generally statistically significant and margins of error are generally large.
Those census region-level responses that do differ significantly from national responses are flagged with asterisks, as in
the example below from our Memorial Day 2010 report:
Party Composition Memorial Day 2010 (example)
* Indicates estimate differs from estimate for Total US with 99 percent confidence or greater.
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Ltd.
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
In the above example, note that the percent of New England respondents planning to travel as a party of "Two Adults" is
listed as "10 percent*." As the footnote below the table states, the asterisk indicates that the New England estimate differs
from the Total US estimate with 99 percent confidence or greater. In other words, if the actual proportion of New England
residents traveling in a party of two adults were the same as the actual proportion of US residents traveling in a party of
two adults, there would be a 1 percent or lower chance of seeing a difference as large as the difference observed in this
survey (10 percent for New England versus 33 percent for Total US). Therefore, it is unlikely—though not impossible—
that this difference is reflective of random sampling error.
Although we will focus primarily on national responses, our commentary on the Holiday Traveler Profile tables may call
out certain regional responses of interest. When we discuss a regional response, we will generally avoid highlighting
responses with large margins of error. For example, the margin of error for the share of New England residents travelling
in parties with two adults is +/-14 percent, meaning that the share could be as high as 24 percent. As such, we would
either avoid highlighting that result or provide the margin of error to the reader for appropriate statistical context.2
1 Specifically, the margin of error for each binary response question is, at most, about 6 percentage points, with 99% confidence.
2 This +/-14% margin of error reflects a 99% confidence interval based on a t-distribution.
One Adult Two Adults
Three or
more Adults Families
Total US 21% 33% 19% 27%
New England 11% 10%* 26% 53%
Middle Atlantic 7% 19% 15% 60%*
South Atlantic 30% 33% 23% 14%
East North Central 39% 17% 23% 21%
East South Central 27% 23% 15% 35%
West North Central 6%* 17% 28% 49%
West South Central 16% 39% 20% 24%
Mountain 26% 52% 10% 13%
Pacific 13% 67%* 14% 6%*
27 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Change in the Average Thanksgiving Traveler
While consumer sentiment readings improved in September compared to last September, households still face too many
headwinds to allow a robust spending recovery. The recovery has weak momentum, and the travel plans of those
households making less than $50,000 will be most affected by the weak economic landscape. As such, the chart below,
taken from the Holiday Traveler Profile, shows that households making less than $50,000 are expected to make up 34
percent of all travelers this year, down from 37 percent in 2011. Households making over $100,000 will make up 28
percent of holiday travelers this year versus 31 percent in 2011, as households making between $50,000-$100,000 will
comprise the remaining 38 percent of total person-trips.
CHART 7
HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF INTENDING TRAVELERS
THANKSGIVING 2012 AND 2011 HOLIDAY
TOTAL US
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Ltd.
Numbers may not sum due to rounding
37%
32% 31%34%
38%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Under $50k $50k - $100k Over $100k
2011 2012
28 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
“Not traveling as far. Driving instead
of flying.”
West South Central Respondent
Travel Distances Travelers intend to journey an average of 588 miles round-trip this upcoming Thanksgiving, which is a decline of 16.7
percent from last year, when travelers planned to log an average of 706 miles. When comparing the change in distribution
among mileage categories, there is an apparent shift towards shorter-distance holiday trips. Among those households
surveyed, only 28 percent expect to travel more than 700 miles this coming
holiday (versus 35 percent in 2011), while 38 percent are planning to travel 250
miles or less (compared to 34 percent last year). The increase in expected
round-trips spanning between 401 and 700 miles (20 percent in 2012 versus 14
percent in 2011) is likely the result of long-distance automobile trips replacing
air travel of more than 700 miles.
TABLE 8
EXPECTED ROUND-TRIP DISTANCE TRAVELED
THANKSGIVING 2012 HOLIDAY
TOTAL US AND BY REGION OF RESIDENCE
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Ltd.
Numbers may not sum due to rounding
50-150
miles
151-250
miles
251-400
miles
401-700
miles
701-1500
miles
Over 1500
miles
Average
Miles
Total US 20% 18% 14% 20% 14% 14% 588
New England 32% 16% 19% 17% 10% 6% 473
Middle Atlantic 14% 26% 12% 27% 3% 17% 573
South Atlantic 19% 23% 14% 23% 17% 5% 529
East North Central 30% 29% 8% 13% 14% 5% 452
East South Central 20% 15% 16% 24% 16% 10% 525
West North Central 26% 14% 26% 11% 13% 10% 541
West South Central 12% 9% 24% 18% 14% 23% 714
Mountain 16% 14% 6% 31% 19% 14% 607
Pacific 20% 7% 8% 14% 18% 34% 887
(Percentage of Travelers)
29 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
“'This year, I will not be flying for the
holiday and the events I am going to
are price fixed.”
South Atlantic Respondent
Total Spending
The median Holiday Traveler Profile respondent expects to spend $498 this upcoming holiday period, which is 10 percent
lower than the expected median spending of $554 from intending travelers in 2011. The Thanksgiving holiday is a less
expensive holiday compared to other travel holidays, (Labor Day 2012—$749, July 4th 2012—$749, Memorial Day 2012—
$702) owing to its emphasis on the gathering of friends and family.
Total spending can be roughly grouped into the following categories:
transportation spending and spending occurring at the travel destination
including lodging; food and beverages; shopping; and entertainment.
Transportation spending accounts for roughly 32 cents of the traveler dollar,
while other categories make up the remaining 68 cents of the holiday dollar.
The largest single spending category is a tie between shopping and food, with
the shopping spend being driven by Black Friday, which is traditionally the
busiest shopping day of the year.
TABLE 9
MEDIAN EXPECTED TOTAL TRIP SPENDING AND AVERAGE EXPECTED SHARES OF BUDGET BY CATEGORY
THANKSGIVING 2012 HOLIDAY
TOTAL US AND BY REGION OF RESIDENCE
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Ltd.
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Total US
New
England
Middle
Atlantic
East
North
Central
West
North
Central
South
Atlantic
East
South
Central
West
South
Central Mountain Pacific
Median Total $498 $425 $644 $250 $227 $522 $275 $802 $569 $767
Fuel Transportation 14% 11% 13% 15% 15% 20% 20% 13% 14% 7%
Other Transportation 18% 16% 19% 14% 7% 10% 13% 23% 19% 30%
Accommodations 13% 11% 17% 20% 9% 8% 14% 12% 17% 11%
Food & Beverages 20% 24% 19% 17% 17% 24% 17% 20% 19% 18%
Shopping 20% 23% 18% 15% 37% 23% 27% 16% 17% 18%
Entertainment/Recreation 11% 12% 11% 14% 11% 10% 6% 11% 10% 14%Other 4% 2% 3% 4% 3% 5% 3% 5% 4% 3%
30 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Chart 10 illustrates the average expected shares of budget by category for 2012. Chart 11 shows the change in budget
distribution from Thanksgiving 2011 to Thanksgiving 2012.
CHART 10
US 2012 THANKSGIVING SPENDING
DISTRIBUTION BY CATEGORY
CHART 11
TOTAL US THANKSGIVING SPENDING
CHANGE IN BUDGET SHARE FROM 2011 TO 2012
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Ltd.
Fuel
14%
Other
Transp.
18%
Lodging
13%
Food &
Bev.
20%
Shopping
20%
Ent/Rec
11%
Other
4%
0.2%
-1.3%
-3.0%
1.5%
2.5%
-0.3%
0.4%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Fuel Other Transp.
Lodging Food & Bev.
Shopping Ent/Rec Other
31 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Party Composition
For Thanksgiving 2012, the most common expected travel party (33 percent) is composed of two adults. About 23 percent
expect to travel as just one adult, and 28 percent of respondents expect to travel with family this Thanksgiving holiday
travel period.
TABLE 13
PARTY COMPOSITION
THANKSGIVING 2012 HOLIDAY
TOTAL US AND BY REGION OF RESIDENCE
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Ltd.
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
One Adult
Two
Adults
Three or
more Adults Families
Total US 23% 33% 16% 28%
New England 27% 34% 12% 27%
Middle Atlantic 25% 41% 12% 23%
South Atlantic 20% 41% 18% 21%
East North Central 15% 32% 27% 26%
East South Central 20% 27% 9% 44%
West North Central 26% 32% 5% 37%
West South Central 28% 21% 16% 35%
Mountain 17% 39% 6% 39%
Pacific 28% 30% 21% 21%
32 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
“Last year I didn’t hunt - this year
I will”
West North Central Respondent
Activities
While spending time with friends and relatives is a primary activity for nearly all holidays, it is even more relevant for
Thanksgiving travelers. It is therefore not surprising that three-quarters of all intending travelers expect to spend time with
friends and family during the holiday period. It is also unsurprising that dining would
take the next highest participation rate for the holiday.
Half of all travelers intend to shop, which is to be expected given that Black Friday
occurs during the holiday weekend and is the busiest shopping day of the year.
Travelers intend to participate in all other activities at a rate of less than 25 percent.
TABLE 14
EXPECTED PRIMARY ACTIVITIES
THANKSGIVING 2012 HOLIDAY
TOTAL US AND BY REGION OF RESIDENCE
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Ltd.
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Total
US
New
England
Middle
Atlantic
East
North
Central
West
North
Central
South
Atlantic
East
South
Central
West
South
Central Mountain Pacific
Visit with friends/relatives 75% 77% 76% 71% 78% 81% 72% 77% 69% 74%
Dining 56% 52% 59% 50% 38% 62% 33% 59% 69% 66%
Shopping 50% 45% 51% 36% 43% 59% 36% 59% 50% 51%
Touring/sightseeing 21% 16% 22% 15% 12% 19% 22% 29% 16% 29%
Go to beach/waterfront 14% 4% 8% 9% 7% 19% 7% 26% 15% 15%
Night Life 15% 16% 16% 14% 11% 14% 14% 13% 7% 26%
Visit museums, art exhibits, etc. 15% 14% 27% 7% 14% 17% 13% 9% 9% 17%
Hike, bike, etc. 9% 6% 9% 8% 12% 6% 9% 7% 13% 10%
Visit historic sites 13% 17% 18% 11% 4% 10% 14% 9% 16% 20%
Attend festivals, craft fairs, etc. 10% 14% 11% 3% 8% 16% 7% 11% 7% 9%
Visit national or state parks 11% 4% 26% 2% 6% 12% 10% 9% 11% 9%
Watch sporting events 24% 23% 24% 19% 31% 28% 18% 26% 33% 11%
Attend concerts, plays, dance, etc. 6% 10% 5% 3% 8% 6% 11% 9% 10% 2%
Gambling 6% 4% 12% 7% 7% 0% 9% 2% 13% 7%
Boat/sail 3% 0% 12% 4% 2% 0% 1% 3% 0% 3%
Visit theme/amusement parks 4% 5% 6% 1% 1% 2% 5% 9% 11% 1%
Play golf 4% 3% 4% 4% 6% 1% 0% 1% 12% 5%
Observe & conserve nature/culture 4% 1% 12% 3% 3% 6% 2% 0% 1% 2%
Hunt, fish, etc. 6% 1% 3% 12% 4% 11% 0% 3% 7% 3%
Spa 5% 0% 8% 4% 1% 4% 0% 13% 5% 5%
Look at real estate 3% 6% 6% 3% 4% 2% 11% 2% 1% 2%
Attend show: boat, car, home, etc. 3% 2% 6% 0% 1% 0% 3% 8% 0% 3%
Compete in sporting events 2% 4% 6% 0% 6% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0%
Snow ski, snow board, other snow 3% 3% 6% 0% 7% 0% 0% 3% 7% 3%
Other 5% 6% 8% 2% 4% 4% 14% 4% 2% 8%
33 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
While the overall travel volume for this Thanksgiving period is not expected to change much from last year, we do expect
to see a decrease in spending and travel distance. As a result, there will be some changes in the expected activities
during the holiday. The drop in spending can be seen in the decrease in dining, touring, attending concerts, and gambling,
but comes despite an expected modest increase in those expected to shop during the holiday. Overall, the expected
activities are fairly consistent with 2011, as only visiting with friends and families, visiting historical sites and watching
sporting events is expected to see a change in expectations of more than five percentage points.
TABLE 15
VARIANCE IN EXPECTED PRIMARY ACTIVITIES
THANKSGIVING 2012 HOLIDAY
COMPARED TO THANKSGIVING 2011 HOLIDAY
Expected Primary Activities 2012 2011 Variance
Visit with friends/relatives 75% 68% 7%
Dining 56% 60% -4%
Shopping 50% 49% 1%
Watch sporting events 24% 18% 6%
Touring/sightseeing 21% 25% -4%
Night Life 15% 13% 2%
Visit museums, art exhibits, etc. 15% 13% 2%
Go to beach/waterfront 14% 16% -2%
Visit historic sites 13% 18% -5%
Visit national or state parks 11% 11% 0%
Attend festivals, craft fairs, etc. 10% 9% 1%
Hike, bike, etc. 9% 10% -1%
Attend concerts, plays, dance, etc. 6% 8% -2%
Gambling 6% 9% -3%
Hunt, fish, etc. 6% 4% 2%
Spa 5% 5% 0%
Other 5% 5% 0%
Visit theme/amusement parks 4% 4% 0%
Play golf 4% 4% 0%
Observe & conserve nature/culture - Eco-Travel 4% 3% 1%
Boat/sail 3% 2% 1%
Look at real estate 3% 5% -2%
Attend show: boat, car, home, etc. 3% 1% 2%
Snow ski, snow board, other snow/ice sports 3% 1% 2%
Compete in sporting events 2% 1% 1%
34 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Dates of Travel for Thanksgiving Trips
Thanksgiving Day always falls on the fourth Thursday of November. The
midweek incidence of the holiday is part of what makes Thanksgiving
unique, as the long weekend frees up more time for families and friends
to spend together, while allowing more flexibility in terms of their travel
plans. Moreover, because the timing of the holiday is consistent each
year, travelers can schedule their plans accordingly to take full
advantage of the long holiday weekend.
The Holiday Traveler Profile asked intending travelers what day they
plan to leave for, and return from their Thanksgiving Holiday trip this
year. Among those surveyed, the majority of intending travelers plan to
leave the Wednesday before the holiday (45 percent) and return the
following Sunday (36 percent), with another 25 percent expecting to
return on Monday, November 26. Use of the remaining dates is fairly
even, which speaks to the added flexibility that the long holiday
weekend allows.
CHART 13
HAS ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
IMPACTED TRAVEL PLANS
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Ltd.
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Mon11/1916%
Tues
11/20 16%
Wed
11/21 45%
Thurs
11/22,18%
5%
10%
Fri11/2313%
Sat11/2417%
Sun11/2536%
Mon11/2625%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Date of Departure Date of Return
(Percentage of Respondents)
WHAT DAY DO YOU PLAN TO LEAVE FOR, AND
RETURN FROM YOUR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
TRIP?
DATE OF DEPARTURE:
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH, OR
EARLIER
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 20TH
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 21ST
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22ND
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23RD
, OR LATER
DATE OF RETURN:
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22ND
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23RD
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 24TH
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25TH
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26TH
, OR LATER
35 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Addendum 1: US Economic Forecast Summary
PUBLISHED 10/08/2012
Crawling towards the election
The economy is crawling towards the election at a growth rate of less than 2%. Exports and business fixed investment have run out of steam in the face of global economic headwinds and domestic policy uncertainty, and employment growth remains weak. We are hopeful that growth will eventually accelerate as the traditional drivers of recovery—vehicles and houses—gain momentum, but fear that the fog of uncertainty will not clear quickly. Our optimism is for 2014 and 2015, rather than 2013. Questions over the Eurozone crisis and Chinese growth momentum are unlikely to be answered quickly. Domestically, we assume that, in the end, budget deficit reduction will require compromise and some combination of tax increases and spending reductions—whoever is president—but the process of getting there is likely to be messy.
Second-half growth still looks modest. We continue to expect second-half 2012 GDP growth to average 1.5%, slightly slower than the first half. We expect third-quarter growth to come in at just 1.4%; our estimate would have been below 1.0% but for a bump from an apparent jump in defense spending. GDP growth for calendar-year 2012 now comes in at 2.1%, down slightly from 2.2% in last month's forecast. Our 2013 projection remains 1.8%.
Exports and business fixed investment no longer leading the recovery. The global slowdown has reduced export growth to a low single-digit pace, hobbling one of the two key drivers of the recovery thus far. The other key driver, business fixed investment, is also weakening. We expect that business fixed investment will drop in the third quarter, the first decline since the recovery began. Business structures spending appears sharply lower, although it can be volatile from quarter to quarter. More troubling is that business equipment spending growth has slowed. Orders have fallen and production cannot be maintained indefinitely by order backlogs. The September ISM manufacturing report, which showed a rise in orders for the first time since May, is a hopeful sign but not an “all clear.”
Vehicles and houses are the bright spots. Vehicle and housing demand are traditionally the key drivers of recovery. A combination of an aging fleet needing replacement with easing credit conditions continues to support vehicle demand, which reached a new post-recession peak in September. The housing recovery is at a much earlier stage, but appears to be real. Household formation is reviving, despite sluggish employment growth, and the recovery in demand is spreading from rental units to the owner-occupied sector. Although we are skeptical of the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's new quantitative easing (QE3) policy, its open-ended nature might convince nervous borrowers and cautious lenders that the downside risk on house prices is limited and that now is the time to act.
The “fiscal cliff” is not going away soon. Amid the discussion of taxes and deficits in the first presidential debate, there was no mention whatever of the immediate threat facing the economy—the fiscal cliff. We assume that the lame-duck Congress will punt this problem down the road, postponing the tax hikes and spending cuts for a few months. That means that extreme uncertainty over fiscal policy is likely to remain a fact of life—and a deterrent to risk-taking—well into 2013. The fact that the debt ceiling will need to be raised some time in the first few months of 2013 adds an unwelcome extra complication.
Federal Reserve: QE3 likely to be amplified in 2013. The Fed came through in September with an open-ended program of asset purchases, announcing $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities. It pledged to do more still if the labor market outlook fails to improve "substantially." We assume that the Fed will begin purchasing Treasury securities again in 2013, after the expiry of the existing Operation Twist at year-end, since there is little chance that it will see the improvement it is seeking by then. We assume that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate near zero through mid-2015, in line with its new guidance.
36 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Addendum 2: US Regional Forecast Summary PUBLISHED 11/1/2012
Moderate recovery continues
This fall, most state economies continue to slowly expand. Over the course of the year ending in September, 29 states saw positive job
gains, and West Virginia was the only one with a large loss. Although we saw a slight deceleration over the summer, the number of
states with positive year-over-year growth has been fairly stable since the spring.
For the remainder of the year and throughout 2013, employment growth should remain moderate, averaging 1.5% per quarter over the
next six quarters. All states except West Virginia will post job gains by the end of this year, and all will see payrolls rise in 2013. By the
end of 2012, though, only New York (although Hurricane Sandy could change this) and Oklahoma will join the five states that have
already returned to their prerecession employment levels—North Dakota, Alaska, the District of Columbia, Texas, and Louisiana.
Another seven states will move from recovery to expansion in 2013, but most states will not be able to close their employment gap until
2014, a testament to the depth of the recession and the sluggish pace of the ongoing recovery. Strong construction sector gains, on the
back of a recovering housing market, will move Arizona, Florida, California, and Nevada among the top 15 states in terms of
employment growth in 2013.
Regionally, we expect the West South Central to continue to be the leading economic performer, generating annual payroll growth well
ahead of the other regions in 2012, at 2.2%. Most of the rest of the regions will cluster around 1.0% job growth this year, again in line
with a moderate national recovery. The only outliers will be the Mountain region, which will vault forward a bit with 1.5% job growth, and
the Northeast, which will lag behind with 0.7%.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in most states has been trending lower since the last quarter of 2011. As a result, only three
states—Nevada, California, and Rhode Island—still have double-digit rates. We expect this rate to slow during the remainder of the
37 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
year and into 2013, however, as ongoing employment gains attract previously discouraged job seekers back into the labor force. By the
end of 2013, more than half the states will still have unemployment rates at or above 7%.
Employment Growth, 2012-18, Average Annual Growth Rate
Although the housing sector has finally seen some improvement, some of the drivers that were previously supporting growth have
weakened. Global economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding the impending fiscal cliff have taken a toll on exports and business
fixed investment and, as a result, manufacturing has lost its momentum, at least temporarily. We thus expect that overall growth in
output and employment will remain modest through the remainder of this year and during much of 2013.
State personal income growth, second-quarter 2012
According to the latest figures published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), state personal income decelerated in the second
quarter of 2012, rising by an annualized 4.1% quarter on quarter (q/q), after expanding by a revised 6.9% in the first quarter of the year.
Personal income rose in all states, but growth slowed in 40 states and the District of Columbia. While growth of the dividends, interest,
and rents component accelerated, net earnings and transfer receipts slowed significantly.
Earnings in the professional, scientific, and technical services sector and the healthcare sector once again contributed the most to
growth. These sectors drove earnings gains in all regions except the Southwest and the Plains. In the Southwest, the construction
sector added more to earnings growth than any other sector, with strong gains in Arizona and Texas. Indeed, these two states
accounted for nearly two-thirds of the national gain in construction sector earnings during the second quarter. In the Plains region, farm
sector earnings, which were actually down nationally, drove second-quarter personal income growth, with very strong gains in the
Dakotas. In North Dakota, however—the top state in terms of earnings growth—the mining sector drove earnings growth, as it
continues to benefit from a booming energy sector thanks to soaring exploration at the Bakken Shale.
Percent
0.8 to 1.1
1.2 to 1.3
1.4 to 1.6
1.6 to 2.4
38 IHS Global Insight / AAA Thanksgiving 2012 Forecast
Highest and lowest net earnings growth rates, 2012Q2
(Quarter-on-quarter, annual rate)
Rank State Growth rate
%
Rank State Growth rate
%
1 North Dakota 9.5 47 Delaware 1.0
2 South Dakota 9.2 48 Idaho 1.0
3 Hawaii 4.8 49 Montana 1.0
4 Mississippi 4.6 50 Wyoming 0.0
5 Indiana 4.5 51 New Mexico -0.5
Nationally, three sectors saw earnings drop during the second quarter: the farm, federal government, and military sectors. Large farm
sector losses made New Mexico one of the worst-performing states in the nation, and also contributed significantly to weak earnings
results in Wyoming and Idaho.