aacu2013futures
TRANSCRIPT
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2023:Towards
the future of higher
education
AAC&UAnnual Meeting
-January 2013
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nitle.org
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Communities of practice
Research
Joint projects
Outreach
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Network platform: events f2f/online
Partnerships Translation
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Grappling with the future
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Caveat: the limits of emergent
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Caveat: wild cards and Black Swans
Extraordinary political or economic event
Technology breakthrough (ex: AI, unrest)
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Environmental scanning
Multiple sources
Should belongitudinal
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Scan 2.0: crowdsourcing Social
networks Iterated
resource feeds
Scanner contributes content
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Next 20 years? Screening Interacting Sharing Flowing Accessing Generating
-Kevin Kelly
Pattern recognition:Deductions from scanning
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Delphi
Assemble experts
Probe for opinions
Rank and distill ideas
Reiterate
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Horizon trends, 2013
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less Massively Open Online Courses
Tablet Computing
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Horizon trends, 2013
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years Big Data and Learning Analytics
Game-Based Learning
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Horizon trends, 2013
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years 3D Printing Wearable Technology
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Futures markets Propositions in time Shares to be traded
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How many American universities will have online, open, credentialed programs
by the end of 2012?
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Why do this? Quant. +
Qual. Affordances of
play
Continuous Distributed
feedback
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Scenarios Stories about futures Event and response Creativity
Roles and times Emergent practices
and patterns
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Scenarios
Integrate previous methods: Select drivers –
environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi
reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions –
prediction markets
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Trendline analysis
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More Asian liberal arts campuses
State university gaming company
Social media growth continues
"Generation Screwed" vs seniors online
Microsoft tablet Google US-
sources hardware
More Asian than Hispanic immigrants
Certification rising
New OLI use cases
Kickstarter continues to grow
One R1 tries to cut libraries down
Academic unions crit distance learning
July 2012 scan sample
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Senior job retention
Government-supported maker classes
MOOCs: more; mutations
Google Course-builder
New badges initiative
Google Glass video shooting
3d printing lab equipment
US R+D low MBA bubble? Adjunct
discrimination by time
September 2012 scan sample
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British MOOC enterprise
The United States birthrate fell to its lowest level since 1920
student-library disconnection
academic social media use cases
cloud computing price war
printer sales stagnate
Android dominates smartphones
3d printing in Staples
adjunct union organization
enrolled undergraduates decline
January 2013 scan sample
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Demographic crunch and few spikes
More MOOCs Online
coursetaking rises
F2f enrollment stalls
Open edu expands
Digital humanities grows
Athletics spending does well
Shale oil -> edu spending
Facebook search launches
February 2013 scan sample
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Trendline categories
1. Economics and college finances2. Communities and populations3. Teaching and learning and tech4. Technology ecosystem5. The future of liberal education6. MOOCs7. Scholarship
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Major driver: ubiquitous computing
Mark Weiser, 1988ff Example: "The Computer
for the Twenty-First Century" (1991)
“The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave
themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.”
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Augmented Reality
First, the light stuff Museum tours GPS navigators
(Garmin) Location services
(Yelp)
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Searchthe
world
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Multimedia lives here
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AR art
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Interface changes
Gartner: end of the mouse
Touch screen (iOS) Handhelds (Wii) Nothing (Kinect)
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Wild card driver: gaming
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Gaming as part of mainstream culture
Median age of gamers shoots past 35
Industry size comparable to music
Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces, other industries
Large and growing diversity of platforms, topics, genres, niches, players
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Gaming as part of mainstream culture
Anecdata: number of Facebook CityVille players:
(as of July 2012, http://www.appdata.com/?AFB_redir=1 )
23,900,000
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Games serious, public, and political
• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries• Jetset, Persuasive Games• The Great Shakeout, California• DimensionM, Tabula Digita
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Gamification
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Gaming extends throughout everyday life:
…literally…practically…conceptually
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Very explicitly about behavior modification
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Imperial gamification
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Large simulations are normal
(political and
mundane)
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Use games to impact society
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Five possible futures
1.Phantom Learning 2.Open world3.The Lost Decade4.The Serpent Digests a
Very Large Mammal5.Renaissance
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I: Phantom learning
Post-tsunami Schools are rare and distant
Information is plentiful and nearby
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Learning
Information on demand
Instructors, peers “ “ Grading outsourced Multimedia: social, personalized
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Institutions Function: content supplements
Faculty: adjunct rōnin
Accreditation: online, multiple, display-based
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Institutions Library: media production camp
Professional development: via social media
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Students spent more time in K-12 with online classes than face-to-face ones
K-12 as social center, working parent support spaces
Libraries are software Buildings without AR look
naked
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MOOCs?
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No, MOOCsNo good categorical name:
…which sometimes indicates the future
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II: Open world Open content, open access, open source
• Very Web-centric
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Good things Global conversations increase, filter bubble pops
More access, more information
Lots of creativity
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Good things on campus Information prices drop Faculty creativity, flexibility grow
IT “ “ “ Academic content unleashed on the world
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Not so good things
Industries collapse Authorship mysterious Some low quality tech (videoconf.)
Some higher costs More malware + less privacy
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How does this impact campuses?
Tech challenges Outsourcing and offshoring
PLE beats LMS Crowdsourcing faculty work
Information literacy central
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Internet has always been open
Web <> money Online identity has always been fictional, playful
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III: The Lost Decade
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Model:
Japan in the 1990s
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Decay sets in
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Chronic popular discontent
Media battles
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Higher education landscape: Two Cultures redux: STEM
vs New Left Adjunct faculty 95% Public institutions’
shrunken footprints Scholarly publication 1/3rd
2000 level
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Higher education landscape: Accreditation: the source of closures
Libraries: rare and/or smaller
Professional development: distance, DiY
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Great Recession began in 1st grade One or more family members
unemployed “ “ “ “ “ underemployed Public education has always been
stretched to breaking point/poor Public-private gap even wider Online learning can beat their
schools “Library” denotes digital collection
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IV: The Serpent Digests a Very Large Mammal
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How it happened
Economic growth returns to US (energy, medical, nanotech vs world)
17-22-year-old niche revitalized (K-12 failure)
Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA strike)
Digital tech firewalled from class (i.e., tv + film)
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Higher education landscape: Supplemental rather than
transformative tech Logistical instead of
pedagogical tech Academics include tech in
old structures (classes, publication)
Reconfigured to protect IP
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18-year-olds were .ppt proficient by 5th grade
Schools <> digital life They find their parents’ recollections of life before the web are oddly charming
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V. Renaissance
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Gaming world
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Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games
Peacemaker, Impact Games
Revolution (via Jason Mittell)
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• Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)
• Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008)
• Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009)
Game studies as academic field
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How is gaming used now?
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Some impacts on campuses
Changes in hardware, software
Part of undergraduate life Learning content, both informal and formal
Career paths
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Higher education landscape: Accreditation: drives project-
based, studio-style pedagogy Libraries: gaming production,
archiving Professional development:
distance, DiY Faculty multimedia production
is the norm
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Elsewhere in the world: War on IP rages Nostalgia waves for old media
Competing storytelling schools
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Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12
Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors
Most of their work and school is gamified
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Five possible futures
1.Phantom Learning 2.Open world3.The Lost Decade4.The Serpent Digests a
Very Large Mammal5.Renaissance
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NITLEhttp://nitle.org
NITLE prediction markets game
http://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander