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Science and Technology Foresight Pilot Project:

Progress Report on Synthesis of Technical Panels and Preliminary Scenarios Development

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TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is…

Systematic exploration of the longer-term future of science and technology, and their potential impacts on society, with a view to identifying emerging factors driving change, and the areas of scientific research and technological development likely to influence change and yield the greatest economic, environmental and social benefits over the next 10-25 years.

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The Disclaimer

The ideas, potential developments and prospective events envisioned in this report have been identified by participants as situations that could occur in the future. They do not purport to be predictive. The approach we are taking relies upon consulting a wide range of expertise, with the expectation that through our collective experience, imaginative abilities and interactive knowledge of technological development pathways, we can begin to construct a coherent view of some of the major developments that can be anticipated within a 10-25 time horizon.

This is the nature of foresight - creating a range of plausible future elements that in their diversity should alert readers to the kinds of issues and perspectives they may not have initially considered in longer term research planning and contingency thinking. 

Accordingly, this report reflects the combined views of the participants, and the best wisdom and creative thinking that we could stimulate with the tools of foresight, but it clearly does not represent an official view of the Government of Canada or any of its Departments and or Agencies.

 

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STFP Project Background

• Pilot project proposed by NRC, endorsed by FINE DMs and ADMs.

• Pilot project independent of any other S&T funding.• Funded by participating agencies.• Multi-departmental Working Group identified 2 key

technology sectors for study:– GEOSTRATEGICS: including geo-spatial data sensing,

gathering, artificial intelligence, pattern analysis and knowledge management.

– BIOSYSTEMICS: including nano to global biotechnology, eco and food systems, emergent and convergent trends in health, genomics & disease mitigation and cognitive science.

• Project Team led by NRC Office of Technology Foresight composed of seconded staff and consultants

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PROJECT OBJECTIVES

• Create a futures context & discussion framework for the development of policies, agendas & investment strategies for S&T and R&D.

• Initiate a network to create discussion and emerging consensus on where and how to collaborate among departments, agencies & other stakeholders.

• Strengthen & focus networks of collaboration among Canadian & international experts in advanced 'geo' and 'bio' S&T.

• Design and test a collaborative learning methodology and process for the inclusion of S&T input to the policy process.

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Science and Technology

Society and Politics

Economics and Finance

Purpose & PracticeE

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Communities of Practice

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Communities of Purpose

• Alignment along priority areas

• Often operate as specialty ‘silos’

• Use S&T as a specialty skill set• Compete for attention and funding

• May have conflicting priorities:

– Environment vs. Resource management

– Economic development vs. Security

– Short term efficiency vs Long term effectiveness

– Opportunities may be missed or problems narrowed to comply with mission boundaries

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Communities of Practice

• Alignment based on horizontal, affiliated disciplines with traditional ways of working together on broad issues

• Society and Politics– Value-based, distributes authority– Operates on political, executive level

• Economics and Finance– Money-based, distributes resource– Operates at central bureaucratic level

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Science and Technology

• Knowledge-based, distributes capability• Fragmented, does not act as a true horizontal

policy vector• Traditions of inter-disciplinarity only now

developing• Significant innovation potential

– Efficiency of existing programs– Formulation of new policies– Avoidance of problems created by a purely commercial

research agenda

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A Range of Prospects

Sustainability science;

Remote environmental sensing

Metabolomics;

Technology convergence/genetics

DNA-based early warning;

Advanced power systems

Microbial ecosystems;

Remote diagnosis/diseases

Personalized medicine;

Biotechnology;

Human global health/environment

Predictive modelling;

Security/Info systems, networks

Integrated nanotechnology

Regenerative medicine

Advanced computational systems

Climate change from space

Sustainable manufacturing

Intelligent robotics systems

Space for environmental security

Biomass energy

Changing northern environment

Space-enabling technologies

Biodiversity/Invasive species

Canada’s sea floor

Virtual ocean

Proteomics/economy, health

Space Surveillance and National Security

Intelligent Autonomous Systems.

Clean hydrocarbons, H2

Sensors/Activators - health

Biodiversity info for KBE

Security of Info Infrastructure

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Geostrategics

The future horizons and applications of geo-spatial data and related knowledge management technologies for decision support, including pattern recognition software, wireless communications infrastructure futures, and links to major new capacities in surveillance, ecological monitoring and resource management technologies.

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The Geostrategics ?The Geostrategics ?

How will geo-strategic knowledge,

technology and prospective applications

likely to be available in 2015 reshape

our understanding of Canada, its land,

sea and air/space resources, and provide

new capabilities for national security,

and the stewardship and sustainability

of Canada’s resources?

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Biosystemics

The convergence of nanotechnology, ecological science, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences, and their prospective impacts on materials science, the management of complex public systems for bio-health, eco and food system integrity and disease mitigation.

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The Biosystemics ?

How can the federal government better

understand the complexities and

interdependencies of Canada’s food, health and

environmental systems, and develop a 10+ year

horizon of actionable intelligence for research

and policy in these areas, given new knowledge

about emergence, behavior of populations,

disease ecology, genomics, etc.?

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BioSystemics Characteristics

• Scale– Nano-scale observations at low end– Data handling and simulation at high end

• Convergence– Unity at the material level

• Consilience– High level models may result in unity at theoretical

level

• Emergence– Seeking to understand rules for networks, tipping

points, systems structure, chaos and complexity

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Science and Scale

ExaPetaTeraGigaMegaKiloHectoDeca1DeciCentiMilliMicroNanoPicoFemtoAtto

SC

AL

E

Physics Chemistry Biology

Giga scaleIncreased Understandingof systemsDynamics &integration

NanoscaleIncreased abilityTo observe &Work with matterAt atomic level

epidemiology

Semiconductorphotonics

genomics

bioinformaticsecology

biogenerationGenetic engineering

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Convergence

Biotech

Genes

Atoms

Nanotech

Computers

Bits

Neurons

Networks

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Consilience

• Unity of theory and knowledge

• Vertical integration using computational models

• Hybrid technologies– Nano-medecine– Quantum computing

• May well include social sciencesNano Bio Info/Cogno

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GeoStrategics Value System

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Focus & Scope

• We approach Geostrategics from a application perspective, as opposed to the technology areas offered in Biosystemics.

• 6 Topics Identified by the Scoping workshop:

1. Environment & Resources

2. National Security & Emergency

3. Transportation

4. Sustainable Cities and Urban Development

5. Heath Risks and Hazards

6. Ocean and Inland Water Resources

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Convergence Of Sciences & Advanced Technologies

• Two week weather prediction

Land/ biosphere predictionPrediction of air/water qualityPrediction of natural hazardsEfficient management of resources

Enable:

Climate/ environmental prediction

Advanced IT Systems

Advanced IT Advanced IT SystemsSystems, Internet

Real-Time Systems

Lower LaunchCosts

High bandwidthCommunication

Systems

Improved Sensors &Advanced Platforms

Improved Sensors &Advanced Platforms

Improved Sensors &Advanced Platforms

Increased ScientificUnderstanding &Improved Models

Increased ScientificIncreased ScientificUnderstanding &Understanding &Improved ModelsImproved Models

IT = Information Technology

GeoscienceGeoscience

Atmospheric ScienceAtmospheric Science

NanotechnologyNanotechnology

MeteorologyMeteorology

OceanographyOceanography

EcologyEcology

BiologyBiology

PhotonicsPhotonics

ClimatologyClimatology

MappingMappingRoboticsRobotics

Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy

Knowledge Knowledge ManagementManagement

Urban StudiesUrban StudiesAdvanced Advanced MaterialsMaterials

•••••

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Spectrum of Breakthrough GeoStrategic Technologies Needed

Sensors• 3D Detectors

• Non-Linear Optics

• Tunable Lidar

•Advanced microwave

• Micro Lidar

•Warm Focal Planes

•Large Telescopes and Antennas

• Biological Markers

Sensorweb• Adaptive Data

Management• Automated Calibration• Reconfigurable

Communications• Autonomous Operations• Multi-Functional

Structures• Rad-Tolerant

Microelectronics

Access to Knowledge• Human-Computer Interface for

Geo-Spatial Datasets• Collaborative Environments• Distributed Visualization• High Bandwidth Delivery Systems• Data Mining/Dynamic Data Fusion • Geo-reference Standards

Information Synthesis• Space/Ground Programming Env..• Reconfiguration Management• Open Model Architecture• Parallel Systems • Geo-spatial DBMS• Standards & Protocols

SensorsSensor Web

Information SynthesisAccess to Knowledge

Science & Architectures

Source: Dr. Bob Ryerson, NRCan

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DELIVERABLES & REPORTING

• Summaries of results for each stage: scoping workshops; technical panels; synthesis, and scenarios.

• High priority 'robust' + disruptive or transformative technologies.

• Potential collaborative R&D strategies.• Potential new planning and contingency roles or foci

for government, industry and academia.• Suggestions for action, including; horizontal

S&T/R&D mechanisms and partnerships, capacity requirements, best practices, & improvements to project methodology.

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Nanotechnology

Present•Nanotubes•Nano-coatings•Liposomes•Lapping compounds

Convergence•Microbivores•Photonic crystals•Molecular switching•Sensors

Future•Quantum dots•Catalyst•SET•Self-org manufacture

Consilience•Reproduction of natural processes (DNA)•Enable macro n/w

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Info-Cogno Technology

Present•Moore’s Law•Internet•Data Mining•Simulation

Convergence•Bio-interface•Asynchronous•Low energy chip•Gigaflop modeling

Future•AI - Smart•Controls•Autonomic•Pervasive

Consilience•Singularity – change so rapid it can only be managed by trans-humans

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Systemics

Present•Top-down models•Epidemiology•Model results•H. Scale dynamics

Convergence•Biological models•Replication•Adaptation•Heuristic

Future•Bottom-up•Eco-epidemiology•Model basic activity•Micro-dynamics

Consilience•Unified world view will require high level of cross-disciplinary education.

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Geostrategic Future?

Present:•Distributed silos•Fragmented data collection•Fragmented infrastructure, systems•Some Interconnections•Data focused•Lack of real-time coverage, data, systems•Difficult data integration

Future:•Integrated Geo Utility at system level•Open system integrated infrastructure•Integrated data collection •Seamless to users; “get what you want when you want it”•Real-time coverage, data and systems•Significantly wireless•Integrated, inexpensive sensors• AI and pattern recognition & pervasive surveillance•Sensor webs with bio, physical, chemical and physical measurements•Peer to peer calibration and validation real time•Smart maps•Smart systems•Information and decision support focused for customers

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Geostrategics Wild Cards

• Technology acceptance (e.g. privacy vs. security)

• International conflicts, war• Terrorist attacks (chemical,

biological, radioactive, nuclear, information, internet)

• Unexpected natural disasters (floods, droughts, hurricanes etc.)

• Climate change acceleration• Satellite, ground station

failures• Collapse of the economy,

financial system

• Collapse of the United Nations, change in world order

• Human made disasters and accidents (e.g. Walkerton, genetic accident)

• Technology breakthroughs or commercialization of unknown military technologies with significant impact

• Pandemic• Interstellar events

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Range of Enabling Technologies

• Nanotechnology• Designer materials• Increasing information processing

power of semiconductors, photonic, DNA, quantum computing

• High speed, high bandwidth communications

• Semantic internet• Smart systems and agents• Autonomic software (self-repair and

automatic code generation)• Wireless communications, including

peer to peer communications and computing

• Portable fuel cells and new forms of power generation

• Real-time information systems• Robotics, nanorobotics• Organic, bio sensors• Integrated, inexpensive, smart sensors

(nano, bio, chemical, physical, optical)• New human-machine interfaces (e.g.

direct link to the brain)• Virtual reality based visioning and

decision-support tools• Telepresence• Smart vehicle technologies• Geopositioning systems• Micro, nano satellite constellations• Ocean technologies

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Scenario Approaches

• Axes of Uncertainty: boundaries of expectation, quadrants of contrast

• Themes that Colour: technovectors and societal receptions; social diversity

• Projective Analytics : projecting the present and adding “spice to the space”

• Wildcards and Inversions: thinking the unthinkable and the reversals

• S&T Emergent & Determinant: technology as the dominant driver and critical differentiator

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Scenario Purposes

• Tracking emergence & prospective impacts of influential trends & technologies

• Informing R&D planners, policy makers• Engaging, coalescing strategic thinking• Elucidation of unseen connections, new insights• Evaluating & comparing a range of scenarios to

assess robustness of technologies• Facilitating long term R&D and strategic investments• Imagining future knowledge & skills needs, job shifts

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e.g. 15 Potential Themes

• GAIA Strikes Back– technology & systems collapses, pervasive barriers

• Agility Advantage Can : succeeding, adapting, competing, diversifying

• Co-Evolu-Innova-tion: Gov’t & communities as co-innovators

• Insecure Cocoon: terrorism unchecked, ever present

• Virtual Avatar: cyber-reality• Genomic Anomic: biotech

transformations & upsets• Comfortably Numb: big brother

takes care through technology

• Birkenstock Bicycle: toward assured sustainability

• Cool is Cruel: cultural fixations for technology, & fast shifts

• O Say Can You C AmeriCanada?: Canada slow merge into the USA

• Navigation Net: fully enabled wireless net functionality

• Techno Freak: reversals of socio-technical potential into problems

• Other Sides: parallel worlds of values & technology co-existing

• True North Long & Narrow: life on the fringe

• Invisible Hand: vibrant 21st century marketplaces

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VII. Implications for Federal Research & Development