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  • 8/20/2019 ABARES Agriculture Commodities Forecast 201603_v1 0.pdf

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    Agricultural commodities

    Department of Agriculture

    and Water Resources

    2016

    Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural

    and Resource Economics and Sciences

    MARCH QUARTER

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    © Commonwealth of Australia 2016

    Ownership of intellectual property rights

    Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual

    property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the

    Commonwealth of Australia (referred to as the Commonwealth).

    Creative Commons licence

    All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative

    Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence, save for content

    supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat

    of Arms.

    Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a

    standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy,

    distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided

    you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms

    is available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

    au/deed.en. The full licence terms are available from

    creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode.

    Cataloguing data

    This publication (and any material sourced from it) should

    be attributed as ABARES 2016, Agricultural commodities:

    March quarter 2016. CC BY 3.0.

    ISBN No: 978-1-74323-282-5 (online)

    ISSN No: 1839-5627 (online)

    ISBN No: 978-1-74323-282-8 (printed)

    ISSN No: 1839-5619 (printed)ABARES project 43006

    Internet  

     Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2016 is available

    at agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications.

    Contact  

    Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economicsand Sciences (ABARES)

    Postal address GPO Box 858 Canberra ACT 2601

    Switchboard +61 2 6272 3933

    Email [email protected]

    Web agriculture.gov.au/abares

    Inquiries about the licence and any use of this document

    should be sent to [email protected].

    The Australian Government acting through the Depart ment

    of Agriculture and Water Resources, represented by the

    Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economicsand Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing

    and compiling the information and data in this publication.

    Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture and

    Water Resources, ABARES, its employees and advisers

    disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for

    any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any

    person as a result of accessing, using or relying on any of

    the information or data in this publication to the maximum

    extent permitted by law.

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    1ABARES

    Agricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    ContentsEconomic overview

    Crops

    Wheat

    Coarse grains

    Oilseeds

    Sugar

    Cotton

    Horticulture

    Australian wine exports

    Livestock

    Beef and veal

    Sheep meat and wool Pig meat

    Chicken meat

    Dairy

    Fisheries

    Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, – to –

    Productivity in Australian broadacre and dairy industries

    Disaggregating farm performance statistics by size

    BoxesSeasonal conditions in Australia

    Recent developments in Argentina’s agricultural export policies

    Outlook for Australian chickpeas

    UK Waste & Resource Action Programme GlassRite Wine project

    Consumer demand for wool

    Statistical tables

    Report extracts

    ABARES contacts

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    66   ABARES

    Agricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    SugarOutlook to 2020–21

    Benjamin K Agbenyegah

    • The world indicator price for raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearbyfutures, no. 11 contract) is forecast to increase in the short term. This reflects a

    decline in world stocks from record levels as world sugar consumption is forecast

    to exceed production.

    • Over the medium term, world sugar consumption is projected to grow at a faster

    rate than production, further reducing world stocks. By 2020–21 the world

    stocks-to-use ratio for sugar is projected to be around 28 per cent, compared with

    43 per cent in 2014–15.

    • The world indicator price for sugar is projected to average around US16 cents

    a pound (in 2015–16 dollars) in 2020–21. This is based on an expectation that

    world sugar consumption will continue to exceed production and lead to reduced

    world stocks.

    • Reflecting expected higher world sugar prices over the medium term, the

    return to Australian growers is projected to reach $44 a tonne (in 2015–16 dollars)

    in 2020–21, compared with an expected $37 a tonne in 2015–16.

    Short-term outlook 

    Higher sugar prices to 2016–17

    The world indicator price for raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures,

    no. 11 contract) is forecast to increase by around 5 per cent in 2015–16 (October to

    September) to average US14 cents a pound. World sugar consumption is forecast toexceed production in 2015–16, reducing world stocks and putting upward pressure

    on prices. If realised, world sugar stocks will decline for the first time in six years,

    having increased significantly between 2010–11 and 2014–15 to reach a record

    77.8 million tonnes.

    In 2016–17 the world sugar indicator price is forecast to increase by 11 per cent to

    average around US16 cents a pound. Growth in world sugar consumption is forecast

    to again outpace the rise in world production, resulting in a further decline in

    world stocks.

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    Sugar

    67ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    World sugar indicators a

    Consumption

    Mt2015–16USc/lb

    Price (right axis)

    Production

    Closing stocks

    a Production, consumption and stocks in raw value equivalent and years from October to September.f ABARES forecast. z ABARES projection.

    7

    14

    21

    28

    35

    40

    80

    120

    160

    200

    2020–21z

    2018–19z

    2016–17f

    2014–15

    2012–13

    2010–11

     

    World sugar production to recover in 2016–17

    World sugar production is forecast to be 177 million tonnes in 2015–16, 3 per cent

    lower than in 2014–15. Lower production in China, the European Union and India

    is expected to be partially offset by increases in Australia, Brazil, Thailand and the

    United States. Forecast lower production in China and the European Union reflects

    an estimated reduction in cane and beet plantings and assumed lower cane and

    beet yields. Growers in these countries responded to relatively low sugar prices

    by reducing plantings. Yields are assumed to be lower because of unfavourable

    seasonal conditions.In India, sugar production is forecast to fall by 3 per cent to around 30 million tonnes

    in 2015–16, despite a forecast 2 per cent increase in cane production. The forecast

    decline largely reflects a 2 per cent rise in the share of cane allocated to gur

    production (jaggery or crude, non-centrifugal lump sugar). This follows a shortage

    of cane supply to local jaggery manufacturers in 2014, which resulted in a sharp rise

    in domestic gur prices between October 2014 and September 2015.

    Sugar production in China is forecast to decline by 10 per cent in 2015–16 to

    10.3 million tonnes, reflecting a significant fall in cane and beet production.

    Cane production is forecast to fall by 21 per cent to 86 million tonnes and beet

    production by 14 per cent to around 8 million tonnes. Growers reduced plantings

    in response to relatively low sugar prices, compared with alternatives, and dry

    seasonal conditions negatively affected yields in some major producing regions.

    In Europe, sugar production is forecast to be 23.5 million tonnes in 2015–16, down

    from around 28 million tonnes in 2014–15. This forecast decline largely reflects

    an estimated 23 per cent reduction in sugar production in the European Union to

    around 15 million tonnes. Relatively low sugar prices during planting resulted in

    growers reducing area. Average yield is estimated to decline because of dry seasonal

    conditions in many EU countries. Partially offsetting this decline is an estimated

    3 per cent rise in sugar production in Eastern Europe, driven by record production

    in the Russian Federation. Sugar production in the Russian Federation is forecast to

    be 5.3 million tonnes in 2015–16, 8 per cent higher than in 2014–15. Relatively highdomestic prices resulted in an estimated 12 per cent increase in planted area to around

    1 million hectares. Average beet yield is expected to reach a record 38 tonnes a hectare.

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    Sugar

    68   ABARES

    Agricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    Sugarcane production in Brazil is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 662 million tonnes

    in 2015–16. This forecast is based on an estimated 5 per cent increase in average

    cane yield to 72 tonnes a hectare, reflecting improved seasonal conditions in Brazil’s

    central south region, which produces around 90 per cent of Brazilian cane. Brazil’s

    sugar production is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 37.8 million tonnes.

    Despite the forecast increase in cane crush, the share of cane allocated to ethanolproduction is expected to rise, constraining growth in sugar production.

    The expected rise in the share of cane allocated to ethanol production in Brazil

    reflects the lifting of the mandatory blending ratio of anhydrous ethanol with

    gasoline by the Brazilian Government to 27 per cent in February 2015. In the first

    10 months of the 2015–16 season (April to March), the share of cane allocated to

    ethanol production rose to 59 per cent, compared with around 56 per cent in 2014–15.

    Sugarcane production and allocation, Brazil a

    Cane production

    Mt   %

    Ethanol share (right axis)

    Sugar production

    a Production in raw value equivalent. z ABARES projection.

    20

    40

    60

    80

    200

    400

    600

    800

    2020–21z

    2017–18z

    2014–15

    2011–12

    2008–09

    2005–06

    2002–03

     

    In Thailand, cane production is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to a record 108 million

    tonnes in 2015–16, reflecting an estimated 5 per cent increase in planted area more

    than offsetting the effect of an assumed 2 per cent decline in average yield. The rise

    in planted area is being driven by the introduction of government incentives that

    are encouraging Thai farmers to move away from rice to sugarcane production.

    Despite the forecast of a record cane crush in 2015–16, sugar production is forecast

    to increase by only 1 per cent to 11.6 million tonnes. This reflects higher returns

    to ethanol production, which have led to sugar mills diverting sugar cane and rawsugar to ethanol production. In September 2015 the domestic price of ethanol

    was around US63 cents a litre, compared with the world sugar export price of

    US12 cents a pound.

    Sugar production in the United States is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in

    2015–16 to 8 million tonnes. Area planted to cane and beet is estimated to increase

    by 1 per cent to 825 000 hectare. Favourable seasonal conditions are expected to

    support a slight improvement in average cane and beet yields.

    In 2016–17 world sugar production is forecast to recover by 3 per cent to around

    183 million tonnes. This largely reflects production increases in the European Union,

    China, Brazil and India.

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    69ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    EU sugar production is forecast to recover by 29 per cent in 2016–17 to

    19 million tonnes. An assumed return to average seasonal conditions, following

    dry weather in 2015–16, is expected to encourage higher planting and improved

    beet and sugar yields.

    Sugar production in China is forecast to rise from 10.3 million tonnes in 2015–16 to

    12 million tonnes in 2016–17. This forecast reflects increased cane and beet plantingas a result of an expected improvement in returns to sugar production.

    Sugar production in Brazil is forecast to be around 40 million tonnes in 2016–17,

    5 per cent higher than in 2015–16. This increase is largely based on an expected

    rise in cane planting as growers respond to improving returns to sugar production.

    Relatively low oil prices are expected to constrain growth in ethanol consumption

    despite the Brazilian Government’s policy to support ethanol demand. The share of

    cane allocated to ethanol production is expected to decline from its current high of

    59 per cent to 52 per cent in 2016–17.

    Forecast changes in world sugar production, by country a

    Mt

    2015–16

    2016–17

    –4

    –2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    world

    other

    Australia

    EasternEurope

    EuropeanUnion

    Mexico

    UnitedStates

    Thailand

    China

    India

    Brazil

    a Production in raw value equivalent.

    Higher world sugar consumption to 2016–17

    World sugar consumption is forecast to increase from 181 million tonnes in 2014–15

    to around 184 million tonnes in 2015–16. This forecast is driven by an increase indemand for sugar from food processing industries in developing Asian countries,

    particularly China, India and Indonesia, and Brazil. If realised, forecast world sugar

    consumption will exceed world production for the first time in six years.

    In 2016–17 world sugar consumption is forecast to grow by a further 1 per cent to

    around 187 million tonnes, supported by income and population growth in non-OECD

    countries. China, India and Brazil are expected to account for around 95 per cent of

    forecast world consumption growth.

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    70   ABARES

    Agricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    World sugar consumption, by country a

    Mt

    a Consumption in raw value equivalent. f ABARES forecast.

    Other

    European Union

    Brazil

    China

    50

    100

    150

    200

    India

    2016–17f

    2014–15

    2012–13

    2010–11

    2008–09

    2006–07

    2004–05

    Lower world sugar stocks in 2016–17

    World closing stocks of sugar are forecast to fall from a record 77.8 million tonnes

    in 2014–15 to around 71 million tonnes in 2015–16. This decline reflects forecast

    world consumption exceeding production. At this forecast level, the world

    stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline by 2 percentage points to around

    39 per cent in 2015–16.

    In 2016–17 continued growth in sugar consumption is forecast to result in a

    further 6 per cent fall in world stocks to around 67 million tonnes. The world

    stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline to around 36 per cent.

    World sugar stocks-to-use ratio

    %

    z ABARES projection.

    2020

    –21z

    2017

    –18z

    2014

    –15

    2011

    –12

    2008

    –09

    2005

    –06

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

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    71ABARES

    Agricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    World sugar exports to grow in 2016–17

    World sugar exports are forecast to be 66 million tonnes in 2015–16, up from

    64 million tonnes in 2014–15. This forecast reflects increased sugar supplies in

    major exporting countries and strong import demand from China, the European

    Union and Indonesia. Sugar supplies available for export are forecast to be higher in

    Brazil, Thailand, India and Australia. Although India’s sugar production is forecastto be lower in 2015–16, the continuation of government export subsidies and large

    carry-over stocks from 2014–15 are expected to support an increase in exports.

    In 2016–17 world sugar exports are forecast to increase by a further 10 per cent

    to around 72 million tonnes, reflecting forecast increases in sugar production and

    continued growth in import demand.

     Australian sugar returns to increase in 2016–17

    The average mill-gate return to Australian cane growers is forecast to increase by

    3 per cent in 2015–16 to $37 a tonne. This mainly reflects the combined effects of

    higher world sugar prices and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.In 2016–17 the mill-gate return is forecast to increase by a further 8 per cent to

    $40 a tonne, largely reflecting the forecast rise in the world sugar price.

    Modest growth in Australian sugar production to 2016–17

    Australian sugar production is forecast to increase in 2015–16 by 5 per cent to

    4.8 million tonnes. This increase is mainly based on an estimated 3 per cent increase

    in sugarcane production to 33.1 million tonnes, largely reflecting an estimated rise in

    harvested area. Average yield is expected to decline slightly because of dry seasonal

    conditions and the spread of canopy syndrome in some growing regions.

    Australian sugar production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2016–17 to5.1 million tonnes, reflecting forecast higher cane production as a result of an

    expected increase in cane plantings and an improvement in yields.

    Australian sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers a

    Production

    Mt2015–16$/t

    Return to cane growers(right axis)

    Exports

    a Production and exports in raw value equivalent. z ABARES projection.

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    2020–21z

    2017–18z

    2014–15

    2011–12

    2008–09

    2005–06

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    72   ABARES

    Agricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    Reflecting the increase in sugar production, Australian exports are forecast to rise in

    2015–16 by 5 per cent to around 3.8 million tonnes. In 2016–17 Australian sugar

    exports are forecast to increase by a further 4 per cent to 4 million tonnes. The value

    of Australian sugar exports is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015–16 to around

    $1.8 billion and in 2016–17 by 7 per cent to $1.9 billion, reflecting the combined

    effects of increased export volumes, higher world sugar prices and an assumeddepreciation of the Australian dollar.

    Medium–term outlook to 2020–21

    Strong sugar demand to support world prices

    The world indicator price for sugar is projected to rise slightly in 2017–18, before

    easing towards the end of the projection period. By 2020–21 the world indicator

    price is projected to average around US16 cents a pound (in 2015–16 dollars).

    This projected higher price in 2020–21 is largely based on an expectation that world

    sugar consumption will continue to exceed production and reduce world stocks over

    the medium term.

    World sugar consumption is projected to increase by an average of 2.5 million tonnes

    a year over the medium term, to reach a record of around 197 million tonnes in 2020–

    21. This projection is based largely on rising world population and continued income

    growth in non-OECD countries, particularly in India, China, Brazil and Indonesia. The

    food processing industries in these countries are expanding rapidly and expected to

    increase sugar consumption accordingly.

    World sugar production is projected to grow at an average annual rate of around

    2 per cent over the medium term to reach 196 million tonnes in 2020–21, compared

    with 177 million tonnes forecast for 2015–16. This largely reflects increased

    production in Brazil, but production is also projected to rise in other major sugarproducing countries, including India, China, Thailand, Mexico, Australia and Pakistan.

    Production growth is expected to be largely driven by increased planted area,

    as producers respond to higher sugar prices. Some improvement in yields is also

    expected, under the assumption of average seasonal conditions.

    World production of cane-based ethanol is expected to grow over the medium

    term but at a slower pace than recent years. The recent significant decline in world

    crude oil prices is expected to have a limited effect on ethanol production in Brazil,

    the world’s largest cane-based ethanol producer. This is because the Brazilian

    Government mandates ethanol blending in automotive fuel. For smaller ethanol

    producers, such as Thailand and India, sharply lower oil prices are likely to adversely

    affect ethanol consumption but this is likely to be muted because of governmentincentives and support for ethanol production.

    Production prospects for major producers

    In Brazil, sugar production is projected to reach 47 million tonnes in 2020–21,

    15 per cent higher than the record of around 41 million tonnes in 2009–10.

    This projection largely reflects the Brazilian Government’s move to significantly

    expand cane plantings and support sugarcane production. For example, in 2012

    the government announced a loan package of US$2.2 billion to bring new land into

    production and replace ageing cane plantings.

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    73ABARES

    Agricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    Sugarcane demand for ethanol production in Brazil is also projected to rise over

    the medium term, reflecting the mandatory blending ratio of anhydrous ethanol in

    gasoline. However, the share of cane for ethanol production is expected to decline

    from its current high of 59 per cent to 42 per cent in 2020–21. This reflects improved

    returns to sugar production and constrained ethanol consumption growth beyond

    the mandated level resulting from relatively low world crude oil prices.Sugar production in India is projected to rise to around 34 million tonnes in 2020–21,

    compared with 30 million tonnes forecast in 2015–16. Sugarcane production in India

    largely depends on rainfall during the Indian monsoon, with production volumes

    fluctuating widely from season to season. Over the medium term, India is expected to

    invest in the construction of more irrigation dams to reduce the reliance on monsoon

    rainfall for cane production. The Indian Government is also expected to continue

    policy measures supporting domestic sugar production, such as minimum support

    prices for raw and refined sugar, export subsidies and loan facilities.

    Thai sugar production is projected to reach 14 million tonnes in 2020–21, up from

    around 12 million tonnes forecast in 2015–16. The Thai Government is expected to

    continue current support policies to increase sugar production, including setting

    domestic sugar prices, investing in new mills, making direct payments to cane

    growers and supporting ethanol production.

    In the European Union, sugar production is projected to grow to 21 million tonnes in

    2020–21, compared with around 15 million tonnes estimated in 2015–16. The removal

    of the EU quota system in October 2017 is expected to encourage higher sugar beet

    planting—particularly in France and Germany, which have more efficient production

    systems. The EU quota system restricts the amount of sugar produced by each

    member state in support of a minimum sugar beet price. The quota for the 2015–16

    season is 13.5 million tonnes and any production in excess of this can only be used

    for export, sold for biofuel or other industrial non-food uses, or counted against thefollowing year’s quota.

    Sugar production in the Russian Federation is projected to reach 6.5 million tonnes

    in 2020–21, 1.2 million tonnes higher than estimated in 2015–16. This projected

    increase largely reflects continued efforts by the government of the Russian

    Federation to achieve more than 90 per cent self-sufficiency in meeting increasing

    domestic demand.

    US sugar production is projected to reach just over 9 million tonnes in 2020–21,

    up from 8 million tonnes forecast in 2015–16. The US Government is expected to

    continue supporting sugar production through subsidised loans to producers and

    tariff-rate quotas, which have the effect of raising domestic sugar prices above

    world prices. This support provides loans to sugarcane and sugar beet producers

    and processors that guarantee a minimum price regardless of the prevailing market

    price. The loan term is generally nine months, with sugar processors and producers

    either giving the government the sugar they produced as payment for the loan or

    selling their sugar on the market if the prevailing market price is higher than the loan

    amount. For the 2015–16 season, the loan rate is US18.75 cents per pound for raw

    cane sugar and US24.09 cents per pound for refined beet sugar.

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    74   ABARES

    Agricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

     Sugar production in Mexico is projected to reach a record 7.7 million tonnes in

    2020–21, driven by favourable returns from exporting sugar to the United States.

    US sugar prices are maintained well above world levels and Mexico benefits

    from this because of access to the US market through the North American Free

    Trade Agreement.

    World sugar exports to increase over the medium term

    World sugar exports are projected to increase at an average annual rate of around

    3 per cent over the medium term to reach a record 79.8 million tonnes in 2020–21.

    This mainly reflects expected increases in sugar available for export, particularly in

    Brazil, Thailand, Australia, Mexico and India.

    World sugar closing stocks to decline

    World sugar stocks are projected to decline by an average of 2.7 million tonnes a

    year to reach around 55 million tonnes in 2020–21, reflecting higher growth in

    world consumption than production over the medium term. If realised, projected

    world stocks would be at the lowest level since 1997–98, when 47 million tonnes was

    recorded. By 2020–21 the world stocks-to-use ratio for sugar is expected to decline by

    15 percentage points to around 28 per cent. At this level, the projected stocks-to-use

    ratio would be the lowest on record.

    Return to Australian cane growers and sugar production

    to grow

    Reflecting higher world sugar prices, the average mill-gate return to Australian cane

    growers is projected to increase over the medium term to average around $44 a tonne

    (in 2015–16 dollars) in 2020–21. This compares with $37 a tonne (in 2015–16 dollars)

    expected in 2015–16.

    The area of sugar cane harvested in Australia is projected to expand to

    413 000 hectares in 2020–21. This is 5 per cent higher than the 393 000 hectares

    estimated in 2015–16 but well below the record 448 000 hectares harvested in

    2003–04. The expansion of cane area is expected to be constrained by limited suitable

    land close to existing sugar mills and the conversion of some former cane land to other

    uses, including forest plantation.

    Combined with an assumed 4 per cent rise in average yield, the projected increase

    in area is expected to result in sugarcane production reaching 36 million tonnes in

    2020–21, up from an estimated 33 million tonnes in 2015–16. Reflecting higher cane

    crush, Australian sugar production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1 per centto around 5.4 million tonnes in 2020–21. This projection is above the estimated

    4.8 million tonnes in 2015–16 but below the record 5.6 million tonnes produced

    in 1997–98.

    Sugar exports from Australia are projected to be 4.4 million tonnes in 2020–21,

    14 per cent higher than forecast in 2015–16. This compares with a record

    4.7 million tonnes shipped in 1997–98. The value of exports is projected to reach

    $2.2 billion (in 2015–16 dollars) in 2020–21, up from $1.8 billion expected in 2015–16.

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    Agricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    Area of sugar cane harvested and average cane yield, Australia

    Area harvested

    ’000 ha   t/ha

    Cane yield (right axis)

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    z ABARES projection.

    2020–21z

    2017–18z

    2014–15

    2011–12

    2008–09

    2005–06

    Outlook for sugar a

     

    unit 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f 2016–17 f 2017–18 z 2018–19 z 2019–20 z 2020–21 z

    Production   Mt   182.1   182.4   177.0   182.9   185.0   189.8   192.8   196.0

     – Brazil   Mt   39.6   37.0   37.8   39.7   42.5   43.9   45.3   47.0

    Consumption  Mt   179.0   181.0   183.5   187.5   189.3   193.6   196.5   196.9

    Exports   Mt   64.3   64.0   66.0   72.4   73.5   75.5   77.2   79.8

    Closing stocks   Mt   76.4   77.8   71.4   67.0   62.6   59.1   55.6   55.0

    Stocks‐to‐use ratio   %   42.7   43.0   38.9   35.7   33.1   30.5   28.3   28.0

     – nominal   USc/lb   16.8   13.4   14.0   15.5   17.0   17.5   17.7   17.5

     – real  d   USc/lb   17.1   13.5   14.0   15.2   16.4   16.5   16.4   15.9

    Production  g   kt 4 364 4 572 4 800 5 081 5 179 5 222 5 266 5 387

    Export volume   kt 3 052 3 675 3 846 4 004 4 068 4 105 4 226 4 382

     – nominal  A$m 1 384 1 643 1 766 1 883 2 095 2 202 2 338 2 440

     – real  h   A$m 1 436 1 676 1 766 1 838 1 995 2 046 2 120 2 158

    a Volumes in raw value equivalent. b October–September years. c Nearby futures price, Intercontinental Exchange, New York, no. 11 contract. 

    d In 2015–16 US dollars. e July–June years. f  ABARES forecast. g Raw tonnes actual. h In 2015–16 Australian dollars. s ABARES estimate. 

    z ABARES projection.

    Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of  Statistics; Intercontinental Exchange; International Sugar Organization

    World  b

    Australia  e

    Price  c

    Export value

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    283ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 6 no. 1 • March quarter 2016

    ABARES contacts

    Executive Director  Karen Schneider [email protected] (02) 6272 4636

    Agricultural Commodities and Trade

    Assistant Secretary and

    Chief Commodity Analyst Jammie Penm [email protected] (02) 6272 2030

    Agricultural Trade Caroline Gunning-Trant [email protected] (02) 6272 2123Agricultural Commodities Trish Gleeson [email protected] (02) 6272 2124

    ACT Outlook Peter Collins [email protected] (02) 6272 2017

    Agricultural Risks Management Matthew Miller [email protected] (02) 6272 3527

    Farm Analysis and Biosecurity

    Assistant Secretary Peter Gooday [email protected] (02) 6272 2138

    Productivity Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487

    Infrastructure and Water Tim Goesch [email protected] (02) 6272 2009

    Farm Survey and Analysis Milly Lubulwa [email protected] (02) 6272 2069

    Biosecurity Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487

    Invasives and Social Sciences Bertie Hennecke [email protected] (02) 6272 4263

    Fisheries, Forestry and Land

    Assistant Secretary Ilona Stobutzki [email protected] (02) 6272 4277

    Domestic Fisheries and Marine Simon Nicol [email protected] (02) 6272 4638

    International Fisheries and Data James Larcombe [email protected] (02) 6272 3388

    Fisheries Economics Robert Curtotti [email protected] (02) 6272 2014

    Quantitative Sciences Belinda Barnes [email protected] (02) 6272 5374

    Forest Sciences Steve Read [email protected] (02) 6272 5582

    Forest Economics Beau Hug [email protected] (02) 6272 3929

    Portfolio Strategies and Land

    Assistant Secretary Lisa Elliston [email protected] (02) 6272 2091Deregulation Donna Hawkes [email protected] (02) 6272 4627

    Data and Land John Sims [email protected] (02) 6272 5732

    Editing, Production,

    Online and Design John Wilson [email protected] (02) 6272 3811

    Library Resources Karen Kidd [email protected] (02) 6272 4270

    Media [email protected] (02) 6272 3232

    Publication inquiries [email protected] (02) 6272 3933

    Agricultural commodities March quarter 2016 was designed and produced by the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources and the Agricultural Commodities team of ABARES.

    Editors: Jane Wiles, Julia Church and Emma Rossiter

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    agriculture.gov.au/abares

    Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource

    Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

    Postal address GPO Box Canberra ACT

    Switchboard

    Email [email protected]

    Web agriculture.gov.au/abares

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    The ‘Biosphere’ Graphic Element 

    The biosphere is a key part of the department’s visual identity.

    Individual biospheres are used to visually describe the diverse nature

    of the work we do as a department, in Australia and internationally.

    Also in this series

    • Agricultural commodities, December

    • Agricultural commodities, March

    • Agricultural commodities, June

    • Agricultural commodities, September

    • Agricultural commodities, December