ABATEMENT GHG EMISSIONS ABATEMENT GHG EMISSIONS SCENARIO FOR SCENARIO FOR

ENERGY&TRANSPORT SECTORSENERGY&TRANSPORT SECTORS

Ministry of Industry and EnergyMinistry of Industry and EnergyNational Agency of EnergyNational Agency of Energy

PhD. Besim ISLAMIPhD. Besim ISLAMI Chairman of NAEChairman of NAE

Copenhagen, on June 29-30, 2004Copenhagen, on June 29-30, 2004

BULGARIA

MACEDONIA

ALBENIA

BOSNIA &

HERZRGOVINA

GREECE

TURKEY

UKRAINE

HUNGARY

SLOVAKIA

AUSTRIA

POLAND

CZEKIA

ITALY

YUGOSLAVIA

SERBIA

KOSOVO

MONTENEGRO

VOJVODINACROATIA

ROMANIA

MOLDOVA

SLOVENIA

0.0000.1250.2500.3750.5000.6250.7500.8751.0001.1251.2501.3751.5001.6251.7501.8752.0002.1252.2502.3752.500

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2

energy intensity (toe/1000 USD GDP)

Greqia-90

Greqia-95

Greqia-00Kroacia-00

Kroaci-95

Kroacia-90

Shqiperia-00

Shqiperia-95

Shqiperia-90

Maqedonia-90

Maqedonia-95

Maqedonia-00

Energy Sector ChallangesEnergy Sector Challanges ( (1990 currancy)1990 currancy)

Energy Cons. for each sector (kTOE)Energy Cons. for each sector (kTOE)

0200400600800

10001200140016001800200022002400

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Households ServiceIndustry TransportAgriculture Other

0250500750

100012501500175020002250250027503000325035003750400042504500

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Household IndustryService AgricultureOthers

Elect. Cons. for each sector (kTOE)Elect. Cons. for each sector (kTOE)

0200400600800

10001200140016001800200022002400260028003000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Solar EnergyCoalNat GasWoodHydro&Imp. Elec.Oil

Primary En. Supply - kTOEPrimary En. Supply - kTOE

0250500750

10001250150017502000225025002750300032503500375040004250450047505000525055005750600062506500

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

ImportSmall HPPThermal Power Plants Hydro Power Plants

Elec. Generation & ImportElec. Generation & Import, GWh, GWh

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400

100

401

704

1007

1312

1618

2081

2390

2700

3480

4263

5050

5839

6632

7427

8226

Elec. For SH Consump.: (1375 GWh or 23.8% of total)Elect. Demand exluding SH: (4400 GWh or 76.2% of total)

GHG BASELINE EMISSION SCENARIO IN GHG BASELINE EMISSION SCENARIO IN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTORENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR

The software used for development of Energy & The software used for development of Energy & Transport baseline emissions scenario is LEAP Transport baseline emissions scenario is LEAP system which is a computer-based accounting system which is a computer-based accounting and simulation tool designed to assist policy and simulation tool designed to assist policy

makers in evaluating energy policies and makers in evaluating energy policies and developing sound, sustainable energy plans. developing sound, sustainable energy plans.

LEAP, as an integrated energy and LEAP, as an integrated energy and environmental planning tool, can help in the environmental planning tool, can help in the

formulation of more rational and formulation of more rational and environmentally beneficial energy policies environmentally beneficial energy policies

since it expands the boundaries of analysis in since it expands the boundaries of analysis in two important ways. two important ways.

GHG BASELINE EMISSION SCENARIO IN GHG BASELINE EMISSION SCENARIO IN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTORENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR

First,First, demand-side measures for improving demand-side measures for improving efficiency are placed on an equal footing with efficiency are placed on an equal footing with energy supply options. energy supply options.

Second,Second, environmental effects are explicitly environmental effects are explicitly considered in the evaluation of alternative considered in the evaluation of alternative energy plans. The developed long-term energy plans. The developed long-term scenario, uses a Bottom-Up approach, end-scenario, uses a Bottom-Up approach, end-users and technologies. users and technologies.

LEAPLEAP is developed by the Stockholm is developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute - Boston (SEI-B) with Environment Institute - Boston (SEI-B) with support from UNEP and other agencies, LEAP support from UNEP and other agencies, LEAP has been used by more than 140 organizations has been used by more than 140 organizations in over 60 countries.in over 60 countries.

Driving FACTORS for GHG BASELINE and Driving FACTORS for GHG BASELINE and ABATMENT EMISSION SCENARIOS IN ABATMENT EMISSION SCENARIOS IN

ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTORENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR GDP-development (Bln. 1990-lek) 1994 Future years (reference)

Total GDP 15.105 5.5% Industry 3.324 9.0% Agriculture 8.245 3.4% Services 3.537 4.4% Lek/capita 4.650 4.3%

TABLE 1.: TOTAL GDP AND VALUE ADDED BY ECONOMIC SECTORS AND PROJ ECTIONS

(million) Future years (reference) Population 3.202 1.10% Households 0.785 3.11%

TABLE 2.: GROWTH RATE AND ITS PROJ ECTIONS

Parameter Value Real discount rate 10% p.a. Inflation rate 15% p.a. Monetary base year 1994

TABLE 3.: GROWTH RATE FOR OTHER PARAMETERS USED IN ANALY SE

-

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

CO2-transformation CO2-non energy use CO2-transport CO2-industry CO2-services CO2-agriculture CO2-residential

GHG BASELINE EMISSION SCENARIO IN GHG BASELINE EMISSION SCENARIO IN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR - 1000 tonENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR - 1000 ton

The Mitigation Scenario is divided The Mitigation Scenario is divided in two parts:in two parts:

First Part:First Part: Reduction of GHG Emissions Reduction of GHG Emissions throught introduction of different energy throught introduction of different energy efficiency measures in each economic sectorefficiency measures in each economic sector

Second Part:Second Part: Reduction of GHG Emissions Reduction of GHG Emissions throught introduction of natural gas power throught introduction of natural gas power plants versus HFO plants and introduction plants versus HFO plants and introduction of different renewable energy sources (solar of different renewable energy sources (solar energy, small hydro power plants, wind energy, small hydro power plants, wind energy, biomass energy, biogass, etc)energy, biomass energy, biogass, etc)

Introduction of different energy Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in efficiency measures in Household SectorHousehold Sector

1.1. Thermal insulation of existing stock Thermal insulation of existing stock (zone (zone III & II) and all new stock to be III & II) and all new stock to be based in based in Approved New Energy Building Approved New Energy Building Code,Code,

2.2. Efficient Refrigerators;Efficient Refrigerators;

3.3. Efficient Lighting; Efficient Lighting;

4.4. Thermal Time-switches for Thermal Time-switches for electric electric boilers; boilers;

5.5. Prepayment Meters; Prepayment Meters;

6.6. Solar Water Heaters System for Solar Water Heaters System for substitution of electric boilers.substitution of electric boilers.

Introduction of Introduction of Thermal Thermal InsulationInsulation//HouseholdHousehold

Reference option: Households without thermal insulation O&M 0.05 Activity 1 household Original inv. in space heating equipment 421 US$ Utilization time 3100 hrs Annual electricity used 4265.28 kWh

General inputs: 1 Ton CH4 = 21 Ton CO2

1 Ton N2O =

310 Ton CO2 Discount rate 0.05 Fuel CO2 emission factor 77.366 kgCO2/GJ fuel oil Fuel CH4 emission factor 0.002 kgCH4/GJ fuel oil Fuel N2O emission factor 0.0006 kgN2O/GJ fuel oil Invest. in reference power plant 1000 US$/kW

Life time of power plant

20 years Capacity factor 3100 hours Coal to elec. efficiency 0.449 Electricity transfer losses 0.15 Ref power plant O&M 0.015

Reduction option: Electricity for space heating with reduction of thermal losses by thermal insulation

Technology Thermal Insulation O&M Cost 0 Activity 1 household Utilization time 3100 hrs Annual electricity used 2973 kWh

Electricity for space heating with reduction of thermal losses by thermal insulation

Costs in US$ Mitigation Reference Increase Total investment 264.8 264.8 Project life (years) 40.0 40.0 Ann. Levelized investment 15.4 0.0 15.4 Ann. O&M 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lev. inv. in power plant 90.5 129.9 -39.3 Ref. power plant O&M 16.9 24.3 -7.4 Ann. Fuel Cost 168.1 241.1 -73.0 Total annual cost 291.0 395.3 -104.3

GHG Emissions (Gg) Ann. Emissions (tons) Mitigation Reference Reduction Fuel CO2 2.17 3.11 0.94 Fuel N2O 0.000017 0.000024 0.00 Fuel CH4 0.000056 0.00 0.00 Total CO2 equiv. 2.1763161 3.1218863 0.95 Tonne CO2 reduction/unit 0.94557 US$/ton CO2 equivalent -110.30

TABLE 5.: Rate and units of penetration of thermal insulation in Albanian households which

will use electricity for meeting space heating demand year 2010 2020

Rate of penetration

Units of penetrating Rate of penetration Units of penetrating

Value 20% 283027 60% 792680

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

thermal insulation of households-wood Eff. refridgerators

thermal insulation of households-LP G thermal insulation of households-elec

thermal insulation of households-ker Efficient lightingThermas timeswitches P repayment meters

thermal insulation of households-DH Solar thermas

Introduction of all different Introduction of all different energy efficiency measures energy efficiency measures in in Household SectorHousehold Sector

Introduction other measures in Introduction other measures in HouseholdHouseholdThe proposed measures will include all about The proposed measures will include all about

mentioned above but may not be limited only mentioned above but may not be limited only to them. The following measures also produce to them. The following measures also produce reduction of GHG emissions, while they will be reduction of GHG emissions, while they will be analysed during the Second National analysed during the Second National Communication in Household Sector. Communication in Household Sector.

1.1. Central Heating Systems for substituting Central Heating Systems for substituting individual heaters in multi-stored buildings;individual heaters in multi-stored buildings;

2.2. District Heating Schemes in new districts District Heating Schemes in new districts in urban areas;in urban areas;

3.3. SSCHP and DH Schemes in new districts SSCHP and DH Schemes in new districts in urban areas.in urban areas.

4.4. Carry out awareness campaign to Carry out awareness campaign to promote energy efficiency for all measures in promote energy efficiency for all measures in HouseholdHousehold

Introduction of different energy Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in efficiency measures in Service SectorService Sector

In Abatement GHG Emissions Scenario by In Abatement GHG Emissions Scenario by implementing the following energy efficiency implementing the following energy efficiency measures in Service Sector considering a measures in Service Sector considering a proper norm of penetration, the energy proper norm of penetration, the energy demand will be reduced bringing in the same demand will be reduced bringing in the same time abatement of green house gases from time abatement of green house gases from service sector. service sector.

1.1. Efficient Refrigerators,Efficient Refrigerators,

22 Efficient Lighting,Efficient Lighting,

3.3. Efficient Electrical Motors. Efficient Electrical Motors.

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Efficient lighting

Efficient motors

Eff. refridgerators

Introduction of different energy Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in efficiency measures in ServiceService

Introduction other measures in Introduction other measures in ServiceServiceThe proposed measures will include all The proposed measures will include all about mentioned above but may not be limited about mentioned above but may not be limited only to them. The following measures also only to them. The following measures also produce reduction of GHG emissions, while produce reduction of GHG emissions, while they will be analysed during the Second they will be analysed during the Second National Communication in Service Sector. National Communication in Service Sector.

1.1. Solar Water Heaters Systems in public Solar Water Heaters Systems in public and private service buildings;and private service buildings;

2.2. District Heating Schemes in existing and District Heating Schemes in existing and new public and private service buildings;new public and private service buildings;

3.3. SSCHP and DH Schemes in existing and SSCHP and DH Schemes in existing and new public and private service buildings.new public and private service buildings.

4.4. Carry out awareness campaign to Carry out awareness campaign to promote energy efficiency for all measures in promote energy efficiency for all measures in ServiceService

Introduction of different energy Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in efficiency measures in Industry SectorIndustry Sector

Historically, energy intensity in industrial sub-Historically, energy intensity in industrial sub-sectors has been very high. The following sectors has been very high. The following measures are selected for introduction in measures are selected for introduction in industrial sector in order to reduce GHG industrial sector in order to reduce GHG emissions: emissions:

1.1. Efficient Heavy Fuel Oil fired Boilers;Efficient Heavy Fuel Oil fired Boilers;

2.2. Efficient Coal fired Boilers;Efficient Coal fired Boilers;

3.3. Efficient Electrical Motors;Efficient Electrical Motors;

4.4. Improvements of Power Factor;Improvements of Power Factor;

5.5. Efficient Lighting.Efficient Lighting.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Efficient lighting

P ower factor correction

Efficient motorsEfficient boilers coal

Efficient boilers fuel oil-diesel

Introduction of different energy Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in efficiency measures in Industry SectorIndustry Sector

Introduction other measures in Introduction other measures in IndustryIndustryThe following measures also produce reduction of The following measures also produce reduction of

GHG emissions, while they will be analysed GHG emissions, while they will be analysed during the Second National Communication in during the Second National Communication in Industry Sector. Industry Sector.

1.1. Improvements of energy consumption as Improvements of energy consumption as a consequence of a better managementa consequence of a better management;;

2.2. District Heating Schemes in existing and District Heating Schemes in existing and new industrial consumers;new industrial consumers;

3.3. SSCHP and DH Schemes in existing and SSCHP and DH Schemes in existing and new industrial consumers.new industrial consumers.

4.4. Carry out awareness campaign to Carry out awareness campaign to promote energy efficiency for all measures in promote energy efficiency for all measures in IndustryIndustry

Introduction of different energy Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in efficiency measures in Transport SectorTransport Sector

Both GHG Scenarios and projections of the sector Both GHG Scenarios and projections of the sector itself, assume that the energy demand for the itself, assume that the energy demand for the Transport Sector will continue to develop with Transport Sector will continue to develop with the same trends. the same trends. The qualitative measures are The qualitative measures are the following:the following:

Improvement of the difficult situation of the Improvement of the difficult situation of the existing roads and construction of new ones;existing roads and construction of new ones;

Increasing the share of public transport for Increasing the share of public transport for passengers and goods;passengers and goods;

Increasing the taxes for second hand category Increasing the taxes for second hand category cars; etc.cars; etc.

Introduction of different energy Introduction of different energy efficiency measures in efficiency measures in Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector

With the objective of reducing the energy consumption according to With the objective of reducing the energy consumption according to the Abatement Scenario, the following quantitative and the Abatement Scenario, the following quantitative and qualitative measures will be taken into consideration and qualitative measures will be taken into consideration and analyzed in Second Communication:analyzed in Second Communication:

1.1. Reduction of 10% of energy intensities due to a better Reduction of 10% of energy intensities due to a better management. It will be achieved by restructuring the management. It will be achieved by restructuring the agriculture sector and establishing farmer groups that will agriculture sector and establishing farmer groups that will enable the use of mechanized machineries.enable the use of mechanized machineries.2.2. Application of biomass schemes and production of Application of biomass schemes and production of biogas from plants and agriculture and animal farming wastes.biogas from plants and agriculture and animal farming wastes.3.3. Use of solar collectors that produce hot air for drying up Use of solar collectors that produce hot air for drying up of different cultures.of different cultures.4.4. Use of existing irrigation reservoirs to install SHPP Use of existing irrigation reservoirs to install SHPP where economically efficient (with a total capacity of 20-25 where economically efficient (with a total capacity of 20-25 MW).MW).5.5. Installation of 20 wind energy power plants close to 20 Installation of 20 wind energy power plants close to 20 pumping stations to protect lands from flooding.pumping stations to protect lands from flooding.

Introduction ofIntroduction of Energy TransformationEnergy TransformationGHG abatement measures related with energy GHG abatement measures related with energy transformation sector are also very important. In transformation sector are also very important. In Albania, main efforts in this category of Albania, main efforts in this category of abatement measures will be focused on power abatement measures will be focused on power sector and utilization of renewable energy sector and utilization of renewable energy sources.sources. The following measures will be The following measures will be introduced:introduced:

1.1. Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO Plant;Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO Plant;

2.2. Hydro Power Plant instead of Natural Gas Plant;Hydro Power Plant instead of Natural Gas Plant;

3.3. Gas Power Plant instead of HFO Power Plant;Gas Power Plant instead of HFO Power Plant;

4.4. Minihydro versus diesel generator;Minihydro versus diesel generator;

5.5. Wind Turbines versus diesel generators;Wind Turbines versus diesel generators;

6.6. Wind Turbines versus natural gas power plant;Wind Turbines versus natural gas power plant;

7.7. Solar PV versus diesel generator.Solar PV versus diesel generator.

Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO PlantHydro Power Plant instead of HFO Plant

Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO PlantHydro Power Plant instead of HFO Plant Schematic Layout of

Drin River Cascade

Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO PlantHydro Power Plant instead of HFO Plant

Schematic Layout of Vjosa River Cascade

Hydro Power Plant instead of HFO PlantHydro Power Plant instead of HFO PlantSchematic Layout of Devolli River Cascade

Small Hydro PP instead Diesel SetsSmall Hydro PP instead Diesel Sets

There are 84 SHPP with a total capacity of 14 MW and only 25 of them are working.

Privatization process for them has started on 1998, so actually all of them are in final stage of privatization

We have started a Program with kfW to finance with soft loan for the best SHPP in three phase:

1. Rehabilitated the best one with 7 MEURO

2. Rehabilitated others based in cost benefit analize the best one with 10-12 MEURO

3. Build new ones with a total capacity 50-70 MW with a total investment of 40-60 MEURO

KOSOVAKOSOVA

solar energy solar energy for hot waterfor hot water

kWh/m2 year Sunshine hours/years

Solar energy for hot water in serviceSolar energy for hot water in service

kWh/m2 year

1.6

7

3.0

3

1.1

4

1.6

7

1.1

2

3.7

3

2.4

5

6.1

3

6.2

6

15

.46

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Solar En.

Diellore

LPG Diezel En.

Elektrike

Lenda Djegese

Kosto f ikse

HFO Solar

Lek/kWh1 USD = 100 Lek

Tabla I.11.: Average speed of wind (m/s)

Month Durres

Kryrvidh

Tepelene

Sarande

January 4.10 5.00 5.80 4.90 February 4.50 5.10 5.70 4.90 March 4.20 4.60 4.90 4.80 April 4.10 4.50 4.30 4.60 May 3.60 3.70 3.60 4.30 June 3.40 4.10 3.40 4.50 July 3.30 4.30 3.50 4.60 August 3.20 4.00 3.50 4.40 September

3.30 4.30 4.10 4.10

October 3.50 4.70 5.30 4.50 November

4.10 4.90 4.70 4.70

December

4.40 5.10 5.60 5.00

Mesatare

3.80 4.52 4.53 4.60

Density W/m2

75 150

100 230 100 230 110 250

Wind Wind EnergyEnergy

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

G as po wer plant

M ethane fro m s ewage

M inihydro po wer

Wind turbines

H ydro po wer

Introduction of different measurments in Introduction of different measurments in Energy Transformation SectorEnergy Transformation Sector

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26reduction of GHG in energy transformation sectorreduction of GHG from energy consumption in transportreduction of GHG from energy consumption in agriculturereduction of GHG from energy consumption in industryreduction of GHG from energy consumption in servicereduction of GHG from energy consumption in residentialbaseline scenario

Introduction of different Introduction of different measurments in Energy & measurments in Energy &

TransportTransport

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

reduction of CO2 eqv in %

Total base line CO2 eqv

Total abatment line CO2 eqv

Introduction of different Introduction of different measurments in Energy & measurments in Energy &

TransportTransport

1.63415

0.93836

0.74953

0.73436

0.63656

0.37596

0.32128

0.31391

0.31381

0.25480

0.16226

0.15477

0.15371

0.11218

0.10941

0.08667

0.08643

0.02636

0.02299

0.01941

0.001400.00031

0.00018

0.00010

0.00002

industry: Efficient motors

industry: Efficient boilers coal

residential: thermal insulation of households-elec

transformation: Hydro power

industry: Efficient boilers fuel oil-diesel

service: Efficient motors

residential: P repayment meters

residential: Thermas timeswitches

residential: Solar thermas

transformation: Gas power plant

transformation: M inihydro power

industry: P ower factor correction

transport: Gastaxies

residential: Eff. refridgerators

transformation: Methane from sewage

residential: thermal insulation of households-ker

transformation: Wind turbines

residential: thermal insulation of households-wood

residential: thermal insulation of households-LP G

service: Eff. refridgerators

residential: thermal insulation of households-DH

transformation: Solar P V water pumps

residential: Efficient lighting

industry: Efficient lighting

service: Efficient lighting

ALL ENERGY AND ALL ENERGY AND TRANSPORT TRANSPORT ABATEMENT ABATEMENT

MEASURES IN MEASURES IN MILLION TONS OF MILLION TONS OF CO2 EQUIVALENT CO2 EQUIVALENT

FOR THE YEAR 2020 FOR THE YEAR 2020 RANKED IN THE RANKED IN THE

DECREASING ORDERDECREASING ORDER

-750

-700

-650

-600

-550

-500

-450

-400

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

OF SELECTED GHG EMISSIONS ABATEMENT OF SELECTED GHG EMISSIONS ABATEMENT MEASURES BASED ON COST OF REDUCTION MEASURES BASED ON COST OF REDUCTION

[USD/CO2 EQUIVALENT][USD/CO2 EQUIVALENT]