Members Seminar23rd September 2014

Torfaen Schools’ PerformanceTorfaen Schools’ Performance2013 – 20142013 – 2014

Performance overall

Trend   2012 2013 20141 Year

Improvement3 Year

Improvement

Foundation Phase FPI*LA 83.3 87.6 90.6 3.0 7.3

Wales 80.5 83.0 85.2 2.2 4.7

KS 2 CSI*LA 85.6 89.1 91.2 2.1 5.6

Wales 82.6 84.3 86.1 1.8 3.5

KS3 CSI*LA 71.8 79.8 82.4 2.6 10.6

Wales 72.5 77.0 81.0 4.0 8.5

KS 4 L2 Threshold E/W & M1LA 45.6 50.5 53.2 2.6 7.6

Wales 51.1 52.7      

KS 5 L3 ThresholdLA 97.1 95.7 99.0 3.3 1.9

Wales 96.9 96.5      

[1] Figure correct 3rd September * denotes teacher assessment

Foundation Phase

• Performance has improved across all aspects• We are ranked 2nd best performer in Wales on

the Foundation Phase Indicator• However a significant number of schools

missed their target.

Trend   2012 2013 20141 Year

Improvement3 Year

Improvement

Foundation Phase FPI

LA 83.3 87.6 90.6 3 7.3

Wales 80.5 83 85.2 2.2 4.7

Key Stage 2Trend   2012 2013 2014

1 Year Improvement

3 Year Improvement

KS 2 CSILA 85.6 89.1 91.2 2.1 5.6

Wales 82.6 84.3 86.1 1.8 3.5

• There has been improvement over 3 years in all areas except Welsh first language

• We are range 1st in Wales for performance on the Core Subject Indicator

• However a significant number of schools missed their target.

Key Stage 3

• There has been improvement in English, Mathematics and the Core Subject Indicator for the last three years

• Torfaen is ranked 11th in Wales on CSI

Trend   2012 2013 20141 Year

Improvement3 Year

Improvement

KS3 CSILA 71.8 79.8 82.4 2.6 10.6

Wales 72.5 77 81 4 8.5

Key Stage 4Name % Level 2 Threshold inc E & M

  2011 2012 2013 2014 Change

Abersychan 38.95 30.32 33.66 48.68 15.02

Croesyceiliog 50.77 43.22 65.07 59.19 -5.88

Fairwater 29.45 32.17 53.05 56.00 2.95

Llantarnam 36.44 45.78 28.99 40.00 11.01

St Albans 56.77 74.17 70.07 69.80 -0.27

West Mon. 37.04 46.63 49.05 46.05 -3.00

Gwynllyw 59.12 55.94 64.56 56.40 -8.16

PRU     0.00 0.00 0.00

Crownbridge     0.00 0.00 0.00

Torfaen 42.97 45.63 50.53 53.17 2.64

Key Stage 4 cont.

• As of today the L2+ improvement is c 2.5%• The rate of improvement is slowing and is now

close to that of Wales 9 based on WLGA estimates). This means unless we make further improvement next year we will not close the gap for our learners.

• Performance is patchy with some schools making significant gains and others losses.

• Several of these movements were not predicted by the school nor the EAS.

Authority Level 2 inc prov

2013/14 Rank

Monmouthshire 65.0 1

The Vale 63.4 2

Ceredigion 61.0 3

Flintshire 60.5 4

Gwynedd 60.4 5

Powys 59.1 6

Swansea 58.5 7

Carmarthenshire 58.0 8

Denbighshire 55.4 9

Neath PT 55.4 10

Conwy 55.0 11

Bridgend 54.0 12

Cardiff 54.0 13

Wrexham 53.5 14

Anglesey 53.0 15

Pembrokeshire 52.7 16

Torfaen 52.6 17

Newport 51.5 18

RCT 51.0 19

Caerphilly 49.2 20

Merthyr T 48.0 21

Blaenau G 41.2 22

Issues Arising

The pattern of improvement over time in primary is exceptional. This progress should be having a significant impact on attainment rates in Key Stage 3 and 4  but this is not the case.

There are significant discrepancies between teacher assessments of pupils and the national test outcomes. These differences are substantial in a large proportion of schools. This calls into question the reliability of teacher assessments in many schools and requires urgent attention.

English Reading 116+ Welsh Reading 116+ Numeracy Procedural 116+ Numeracy Reasoning 116+

1 Monmouthshire 23.7 1 Cardiff 25.2 1 Ceredigion 21.3 1 Ceredigion 22.3

2 Vale of Glamorgan 22.4 2 Monmouthshire 24.3 2 Vale of Glamorgan 20.8 2 Anglesey 19.5

3 Ceredigion 21.2 3 Vale of Glamorgan 24.0 3 Monmouthshire 20.0 3 Gwynedd 19.2

4 Powys 20.8 4 Denbighshire 20.5 4 Gwynedd 19.3 3 Powys 19.2

5 Pembrokeshire 19.0 5 Gwynedd 20.1 5 Anglesey 18.9 5 Vale of Glamorgan 18.5

6 Cardiff 18.4 6 Powys 18.5 5 Swansea 18.9 6 Carmarthenshire 17.6

7 Swansea 17.8 7 Ceredigion 18.4 7 Carmarthenshire 18.0 7 Swansea 17.3

8 Anglesey 17.5 8 Conwy 17.7 8 Powys 17.0 8 Monmouthshire 16.9

9 Flintshire 16.7 Wales 17.5 9 Pembrokeshire 16.9 9 Pembrokeshire 16.7

9 Carmarthenshire 16.7 9 Carmarthenshire 17.2 10 Cardiff 16.6 10 Cardiff 15.2

11 Gwynedd 16.6 10 Merthyr Tydfil 17.0 11 Bridgend 15.6 11 Bridgend 14.9

Wales 16.5 11 Pembrokeshire 16.6 Wales 15.5 Wales 14.8

12 Bridgend 16.3 12 Anglesey 16.0 12 Neath Port Talbot 14.7 12 Wrexham 14.7

13 Conwy 15.7 13 Swansea 15.6 13 Wrexham 14.4 12 Flintshire 14.7

14 Wrexham 15.6 14 Neath Port Talbot 14.9 14 Conwy 14.1 14 Denbighshire 14.3

15 Newport 15.3 15 Wrexham 14.7 15 Flintshire 13.9 15 Conwy 14.2

16 Denbighshire 14.4 16 Torfaen 13.7 16 Denbighshire 13.1 16 Neath Port Talbot 12.0

16 Neath Port Talbot 14.4 17 Flintshire 13.5 17 Newport 12.8 17 Newport 11.7

18 Torfaen 13.9 18 Bridgend 13.4 18 Caerphilly 12.2 18 Torfaen 11.3

19 Rhondda Cynon Taf 12.9 19 Caerphilly 12.6 19 Merthyr Tydfil 11.9 19 Caerphilly 11.2

20 Caerphilly 12.8 20 Rhondda Cynon Taf 10.6 20 Torfaen 11.7 20 Rhondda Cynon Taf 10.4

21 Merthyr Tydfil 12.3 20 Newport 10.6 21 Rhondda Cynon Taf 11.3 21 Merthyr Tydfil 10.3

22 Blaenau Gwent 10.5 22 Blaenau Gwent 1.9 22 Blaenau Gwent 9.3 22 Blaenau Gwent 7.3

National Tests 2014 (Cumulative performance for Years 2-9 pupils attaining a standard score of 115+)

There are significant disparities in KS 2 and 3 between teacher assessment and pupils outcomes in national tests.

This is a matter of significant concern and is being addressed by head teachers, the LA and the EAS.

School School L4+ NFER L4+ Difference

Victoria Primary 94.3 65.7 -28.6

Pontymoile Primary 87.5 62.5 -25.0

Blenheim Road CP 92.3 69.2 -23.1

Blaenavon Heritage VC 95.1 75.6 -19.5

Nant Celyn Primary 92.9 78.6 -14.3

Greenmeadow Primary 96.4 82.1 -14.3

Cwmffrwdoer Primary 95.8 83.3 -12.5

Padre Pio RC Primary 83.9 74.2 -9.7

Coed Eva Primary 93.3 85.0 -8.3

Ysgol Bryn Onnen 89.2 81.1 -8.1

George Street Primary 96.0 88.0 -8.0

Pontnewydd Primary 88.5 80.8 -7.7

Maendy Primary 100.0 93.1 -6.9

Croesyceiliog Primary 98.4 91.8 -6.6

Griffithstown Primary 97.9 91.7 -6.2

Ysgol Cwmbran 89.5 84.2 -5.3

Henllys CiW Primary 93.5 90.3 -3.2

New Inn Primary 98.6 95.8 -2.8Llantarnam CP 100.0 100.0 0.0

Our Lady of The Angels RC 100.0 100.0 0.0

Pontnewynydd Primary 87.5 87.5 0.0

Ponthir CiW Primary 90.9 90.9 0.0

Garnteg Primary 90.0 93.3 3.3Woodlands 89.7 93.1 3.4

Llanyrafon Primary 88.6 93.2 4.6Penygarn CP 57.6 66.7 9.1

St David's RC Primary 75.0 87.5 12.5

Issues Arising cont.• All schools set their targets for their learners in the Autumn

term. Given the poor correlation of teacher assessment with national tests outcomes we cannot allow this process to proceed as planned and will be agreeing a more accurate process based on more stringent assessment of pupils. The new process will be agreed with the EAS and head teachers in the coming weeks and is likely to be based on the national test performance outcomes.

• Although Torfaen’s performance is ranked second in the consortium, we are ranked 17th overall in Wales in terms of the Level 2 threshold indicator (5 A*-C GCSEs). Pupils’ performance in national tests across years 2 to 9 are closely aligned to the L2+ outcome. We are ranked 12th in Wales for free school meals.

Issues Arising cont.• Categorisation of schools later this term will be based on submitted

data. However the second judgement on leadership and the quality of teaching will be based on firm evidence that the reported performance of pupils is born out through the EAS’ scrutiny of books and teaching in schools. We anticipate this will mean many schools will see an impact on their categorisation.

• Discussions with the Recovery Board and our link Estyn colleagues have focused on the issues outlined above and there are high expectations that we will bring about change in teacher assessment processes this year. There is general acceptance and understanding for our statutory partners that this will result in a significant drop in reported performance as we get more accurate and reliable processes in place. This will bring some challenges but is a vital step in ensuring we know our learners well and can make consistent progress over time.

Improving Teacher Assessment – Next steps

• Outcome from the conference on the 25th will be a new assessment policy for Torfaen which will act as a pilot for the consortium which will: Address issue of target setting this year which will need to be based on an objective

measure of performance and not submitted teacher assessment data Agree the use of national and other test data as a fundamental part of the

assessment process Include details of random sampling by EAS/ partner head teachers and support for

teachers e.g. moderation library, training, cluster support.

• EAS and LA will discuss implications for current commission and any additional resources required