ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

Bill Lawrence – DOH & Mike Pierce – Sr. Hydro.

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

OverviewOverview

Brief summary of current set-upBrief summary of current set-up Calibration work – Mike PierceCalibration work – Mike Pierce Verification - Bill LawrenceVerification - Bill Lawrence

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

• Using prototype version since 2003Using prototype version since 2003

• Display the DHM time-series in IFPDisplay the DHM time-series in IFP with the lumped model - 2004with the lumped model - 2004

• 21 sites currently defined – 4 not in21 sites currently defined – 4 not in operational 6hr lumped modeloperational 6hr lumped model

• Using Research Distributed Hydrologic Using Research Distributed Hydrologic Model for Gridded FFG - 2006Model for Gridded FFG - 2006

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES21 DHM Basins Defined

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

IFP Example

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

General observations – All Sites General observations – All Sites

• In many cases - too much volumeIn many cases - too much volume - no modifications?- no modifications? - monthly PE- monthly PE

• Performs better when precipitationPerforms better when precipitation is concentrated near the bottom ofis concentrated near the bottom of the basin.the basin. - as well as or better then lumped in - as well as or better then lumped in some casessome cases

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

• Began archiving hourly data for 21 sites Began archiving hourly data for 21 sites

in 2004in 2004

• Verification software slow down – Verification software slow down –

had to run overnighthad to run overnight

• Dropped number of archived sitesDropped number of archived sites

to six – for nowto six – for now

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

• Focus on calibration and verificationFocus on calibration and verification

• Completed calibration comparison Completed calibration comparison forfor

Blue on the Blue River in March 07Blue on the Blue River in March 07

• Compared 7 different calibrationsCompared 7 different calibrations

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

Calibrations compared:Calibrations compared:

1.1. Current OHD calibration – DMIP1Current OHD calibration – DMIP1

2.2. Eric Anderson #1Eric Anderson #1

3.3. Eric Anderson #2Eric Anderson #2

4.4. Eric #1 lumpedEric #1 lumped

5.5. Eric #2 lumpedEric #2 lumped

6.6. A priori - OHDA priori - OHD

7.7. MDP manual calibration – adjusted routingMDP manual calibration – adjusted routing

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

• Used historical record from 1996 to 2004.Used historical record from 1996 to 2004.

• 12 high flow events – diverse gridded 12 high flow events – diverse gridded pcpn, upper, lower, middle of basin.pcpn, upper, lower, middle of basin.

• Used XDMS to display time-seriesUsed XDMS to display time-series

• Looking for trendsLooking for trends

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

RESULTS:RESULTS:

• Random - no clear winner – noRandom - no clear winner – no

apparent trendsapparent trends

• Some evidence of improvement by Some evidence of improvement by

adjusting the routing parametersadjusting the routing parameters

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

• Overall statistical results:Overall statistical results:

CCalibration % bias Corr. Coeff.alibration % bias Corr. Coeff. OHD 23 .81OHD 23 .81 Eric #1 56 .74Eric #1 56 .74 Eric #2 26 .77Eric #2 26 .77 Eric #1 lumped 26 .82Eric #1 lumped 26 .82 Eric #2 lumped 11 .85Eric #2 lumped 11 .85 a priori 51 .78a priori 51 .78 MDP manual 21 .85MDP manual 21 .85

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

Corbin KS on Chikaskia River – April 07Corbin KS on Chikaskia River – April 07

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

Calibrations compared:Calibrations compared:

1.1. Current calibration - ABRFCCurrent calibration - ABRFC

2.2. 6hr lumped - operational6hr lumped - operational

3.3. Scaled to 6hr lumpedScaled to 6hr lumped

4.4. A priori - OHDA priori - OHD

5.5. MDP manual calibration – adjusted MDP manual calibration – adjusted routingrouting

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

Results:Results:

• MDP manual calibration performed best MDP manual calibration performed best overalloverall

- 17 out of 20 events.- 17 out of 20 events.

- calibration of routing parameters improved- calibration of routing parameters improved

simulationsimulation

• 6-hr lumped parameters performed well6-hr lumped parameters performed well

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

Overall statistical results:Overall statistical results:

Calibration % bias Corr. Coeff.Calibration % bias Corr. Coeff.

A priori -65 .82A priori -65 .82

6hr lumped -19 .826hr lumped -19 .82

Scaled -47 .83Scaled -47 .83

Current -24 .8 Current -24 .8 MDP manual -4 .87MDP manual -4 .87

ABRFC DHM EXPERIENCESABRFC DHM EXPERIENCES

Some ObservationsSome Observations• Need better calibration methods and toolsNeed better calibration methods and tools

- Automated methods?- Automated methods?

- Manual calibration appears to be- Manual calibration appears to be

best method currentlybest method currently

• Calibration of routing parameters isCalibration of routing parameters is

important – future work?important – future work?