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Running Head: The Future Of Air Transport Between Germany & Syria

The Future Of Air Transport Between Germany & Syria With Special Regard To Immigrant

Travelers.

Ourabi Samheh

International University of App Ourabi Samheh

ID: 9160324

13 Rempart 4677

Echternach Luxembourg

Supervised by Prof. Dr. Christoph Brützel

Submission date:

The Future Of Air Transport Between Germany & Syria 1

Abstract


Acknowledgement


List of Appendices


Index of Figures


Index of Tables


List of Abbreviations


Table of ContentsAbstract..................................................................................................................................................1

Acknowledgement.................................................................................................................................2

List of Appendices..................................................................................................................................3

Index of Figures......................................................................................................................................4

Index of Tables.......................................................................................................................................5

List of Abbreviations...............................................................................................................................6

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................8

1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH STUDY.....................................................9

1.2 RATIONALE.......................................................................................................................10

1.3 OBJECTIVES.......................................................................................................................11

1.3 THESIS STRUCTURE........................................................................................................11

Chapter 2 Literature Review.................................................................................................................12

References............................................................................................................................................12


Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION

As a result of the Syrian War, millions of Syrians have left their home country (Degler,

Liebing, & Sophia, 2017) In total, 6.7 million people have fled as refugees, while 6.2 million

people remain displaced within Syria, half of whom are children (World Vision, 2018). Many

of these individuals and families live on the streets, in tents, in community centers, or in crude

shelters with little to no access to health care, education, and other needed services (World

Vision, 2018). Many of the Syrian cities remain inhabitable, despite the Syrian War having

begun eight years ago. Eastern Ghouta, which is nearby the capital of Damascus, is riddled

with warfare, while the city of Raqqah remains polluted by explosives and destructive

weaponry and is deemed unsafe for return (World Vision, 2018). The number of Syrians in

need of assistance is desperately high; especially considering the population was about 18.5

million in 2016, though 13.1 million people required assistance (World Vision, 2018).

In search of a safer environment, the 6.7 million Syrians that fled had left with other

countries as their destination. These countries included Libya, Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and

Jordan. One of the most popular destinations for Syrians, however, is Germany, due to its

open-door border policy (Dr Engler, 2016) . In 2015 at the height of the immigration from

Syria to Germany (De La Baume, 2017), more than 1 Million people seeking asylum had fled.

This number dropped to 280,000 asylum seekers in 2016 and 186,644 in 2017, though the

number remains a predominant figure (Chase, 2018). To meet the growing demand of Syrian

refugees, Germany created more than 20,000 living spaces between 2013 and 2014, enabled

the Syrians to apply for work immediately, and permitted them to apply for a residence permit

that lasted for a two-year period (Dr Engler, 2016). As areas in Syria regained control and

safe zones were developed, however, Germany began the process of sending Syrians back to

their home country, beginning with those accused of criminal activity in Europe. Other

polices have been underway that shorten the period of the Syrian refugees’ permitted stay

(Traub , 2017).

The influx of Syrian refugees residing in Germany inspired the researcher to consider whether

commercial airfare could profit from this growing population. With a large population of

Syrians residing in Germany, whether for a long period of time or in the short term, it may

prove lucrative to invest in air travel between Germany and Syria in the future. The thought is


that after the war ceases, Syrians living in Germany may wish to visit families back home,

and vice versus.

On November 14, 1983, the Federal Republic of Germany and the Arabic Republic of Syria

signed the Air Transport Agreement (Mattern, 2018). The act, however, has never been

sanctioned. As a result, there is no direct air traffic between Syria and Germany. The

presumption is that there is the opportunity to capitalize from air traffic between these two

countries, especially considering the influx in immigration following the Syrian War. The

chapter contains separate discussions about the purpose and the problem statement, the

background of the study, and the organization of the rest of this thesis.

1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH STUDY

The purpose of this qualitative, historical research study is to consider whether it would be

profitable to provide airfare between Syria and Germany, in the future, due to the influx of

Syrian refugees residing in Germany. Due to the Syrian War, which has been ongoing since it

started eight years ago, millions of Syrians have migrated into Germany as a result of its

open-door policy. There is currently no airfare permitted to travel between Syria and German

and vice versus. Due to the higher population of Syrians residing in Germany, however, the

presumption is that providing airfare between these two countries may be prove to be a

profitable partnership. The aim is to observe and discuss immigration, in this sense, through a

commercial lens to unveil whether there are business opportunities arising from future travel

demand from immigration between Germany and Syria.

The scope of this study requires the collection of data about Syria and Germany and the

standards of each country, particularly following the Syrian War. This includes collecting

historical information about Lufthansa, one of Germany’s most predominant air carriers, and

Syrian Air, one of Syria’s most predominant air carriers. This information would be used to

compare old figures with new figures. In addition to collecting historical data, the researcher

will prepare a survey to distribute among several segments of immigrants. The researcher will

execute this by visiting the ministry of immigration in Germany and receiving specific

numbers of immigrants and places of distribution in Germany, also by posting the survey on

the social media on specific social media groups for Syrian comities in Germany. The

researcher will use this survey to discover information that includes.

a. How many Syrians, refugees and non-refugees, are residing in Germany?


b. How many Syrians are thinking about traveling between Germany and Syria?

c. Are they intend to go back permanently or just to visit their home county?

d. How many times are these Syrians willing to travel?

e. How many of those are business and how many leisure travelers?

f. From which Airport they prefer to travel and which airport they prefer as the final

destination in Syria?

g. This survey will also be helpful in determining whether an opportunity exists for

airlines carriers to provide transportation between Germany and Syria, and whether

this opportunity is permanent or temporary.

1.2 RATIONALESince the Syrian War began in 2011, Germany has had a high influx of refugees seeking

asylum. According to United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (2018),

seeking asylum refers to an individual’s request for political protection from another

country because he is unable to return to his home country. In order to do so, an asylum

seeker must provide evidence of being treated poorly in his home country due to his

religious background, nationality, and race or political views (U.S. Citizenship and

Immigration Services, 2018). Between 2015 and 2016, some 1.2 million people arrived in

Germany requesting asylum, most of which were from Syria (Degler, Liebing, & Sophia,

2017) this sudden influx of immigrants, which remains ongoing, has created challenges

for Germany. Some of these immigrants were ill-prepared to enter the workforce, while

others were unable to speak the language. Moreover, these immigrants’ religious beliefs

differed vastly from theirs, as well as their culture and its customers (Degler, Liebing, &

Sophia, 2017). However even with all those difficulties from around 700,000 Syrian

immigrant in Germany third of them have a university degree and they are in progress to

find a new career opportunities (Mergenthaler, 2017) Figures showed that German

companies have managed to attract more apprentices to on-the-job training schemes due

to a surge in applications from asylum seekers from Syria, 306.574 asylum seekers had

found jobs as of May 2018, and the numbers increasing every month (Petzinger, 2018)

From around 1 million migrant who arrived to Germany to get the asylum status 62%

received the refugee status or human protection 97% are Syrian. (Alkousaa , 2018).

This for the Syrian immigrant who is looking to find a fixed job within the German

market or those who are looking to finish their study, on the other hand, the Syrian are

often inclined to set up their own business this is what the German cities have witnessed

in the last few years the Syrian immigrant opens a large number of restaurants and food


shops and begin to revive the export from Syria which is rose to 15.5 million euro in 2016

(Naser, 2017). This gives us a good view about the stability of the Syrian community and

its ability to integrate into the German community and how most of the Syrian immigrant

thinking about having a stable life in Germany and build a new future for their children

which allowed the researcher to have good idea about the stability of the target market

understudy.

1.3 OBJECTIVESIn this study, the researcher will strive to determine whether a business opportunity exists

for air travel between Germany and Syria due to the influx of Syrians residing in

Germany following the beginning of the Syrian War. As stated, the researcher will obtain

data from historical information and surveys to address the study’s purpose. The historical

data entails the identification of numerical data before and after the influx of Syrians

traveling into Germany. The researcher anticipates discovering a demand in air travel

after the immigrant population increased due to the Syrian War. The researcher also

expects to discover that an opportunity exists to profit from providing direct air travel

between Syria and Germany. If this information holds true for this study, it is imperative

to determine so as soon as possible, so that travel convenience may be provided to

families that have migrated.

1.4 THESIS STRUCTUREThis section briefly describes the structure of the duration of this thesis. Chapter 2 includes a

discussion containing the literature review, which references earlier scholarship about topics

relating to and supporting the subject under study. Chapter 3 includes the methodology, which

is an explanation about how the study will be structured, the population the study will involve,

and the justification behind the research design of the study. And will include analyzation of

the regulatory framework (in particular the air service agreement between Syria and

Germany)

Chapter 4 will include a discussion of the market under study, which includes information

about refugees in general, refugees from Syria, and refugees from neighboring countries,

followed by a discussion about businessmen, and regular travelers, as these groups pertain to

the consideration to offer airfare between Germany and Syria.

Also will include supply-side analysis for players at both ends (Syria, Germany) and maybe

even of other carriers who are or might be active in the Syrian market and offer 3. /4.

Freedom connecting services between Syria and Germany.


Chapter 5 includes the key findings of the study, which is the information collected from the

historical data collection and the survey distribution. This information is discussed in Chapter

6, which draws conclusions based on the research. The study closes with Chapter 7, which

offers ideas for future decisions and further research about the study topic, Recommendations,

and Limitations.

Chapter 2 BACKGROUND / LITERATURE REVIEWThis review of literature consists of an overview and discussion of existing literature relevant

to the identified research problem and the research purpose. The purpose of this qualitative,

and quantitative research study is to consider whether it would be profitable to provide airfare

between Syria and Germany, in the future, due to the influx of Syrian refugees residing in

Germany. This section will be divided into four subsections focused on specific themes found

in the existing literature related to the proposed study.

2.1 Background.In this part the researcher will give a general overview about the war in Syria, which is the

main reason behind the influx of a large number of refugees to Germany who formed a future

market opportunity for air transport sector, also this part will include a quick explanation

about the challenges that the refugee facing during the asylum phase and the Opportunities

arising from this crisis in general and in particular to the air transport sector.

2.1.1 The War in Syria.This influx of Syrian refugees did not take place overnight, nor was it without sound reason.

Nearly eight years ago in March of 2011, the Syrian people started protesting against their

government. They accused President Bashar al-Assad – whose family had led Syria for 40

years of corruption, human rights abuse, and repression. On the contrary, the Syrian people

were pleading for peace and democracy (Macon, 2011). This also took place during the Arab

Spring of 2011, which was a democratic political uprising that started in Tunisia and spread

across the Arab world, affecting Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia,

and Jordan (Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2011). As the protests started spreading in Syria, the

Syrian government met protestors with worsening violence, which prompted the intervention

of former United States President Barack Obama to demand Al-Asaad to step down After Al-

Asaad’s continued refusal, the Syrian government started using chemical weapons to maintain

control, while insisting the United States to intervene (Humud, Blanchard, & Nikitin, 2019,

pp. 30-33). It was also during this time that Al Qaeda – an international Islamist organized

founded by Osama bin Laden, among other Arab volunteers – which was renamed the


Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) formed the al-Nusra Front (Humud, Blanchard, & Nikitin, 2019, pp.

9-11). The objective of the al-Nusra front was to overthrow the government under al-Assad.

In 2014, the ISI and the al-Nusra Front combined to create the Islamic State of Iraq and Al

Sham (ISIS/ISIL), a militant organization known for its savage strategies, which include

beheadings, slaves, and prohibiting behaviors like smoking and listening to music. By 2014,

more than 170,000 Syrians were killed since the beginning of the protests against al-Asaad,

and more than nine million people had fled their homes (BBC, 2014).

As the conflicts continued, ISIS also continued to strengthen in size, range, and violence. In

2014, ISIS stated that it was a caliphate in Syrian and Iraq and its operating capital was at

Raqqah (city in Syria) which had its name changed to Islamic State (IS). In 2014, the United

States began attacking Syria, which was followed by Russian air attacks in Syria in 2015

(Humud, Blanchard, & Nikitin, 2019, p. 1).As stated, the ongoing conflicts in Syria caused

millions of Syrians to leave their homes. Between 2011 and 2015, some 13 million Syrians

left, which equated to half of the country’s population at the time (Ferris & Krisci, 2016). This

information is particularly striking for a country of Syria’s size. With a size of 71,498 square

miles, it is about one-and-a-half times the size of the state of Pennsylvania, and as of 2018,

Syria had a population of 19.5 million (Humud, Blanchard, & Nikitin, 2019, p. 2). According

to Ferris and Kirisci, the displacement of nearly 13 million Syrians in 2016 was identified as

the “most daunting humanitarian crisis of our time” (Ferris & Krisci, 2016, p. 1). Syrians’

decision to flee their home country was no easy feat, as 220,000 people had been killed by

2015 in the process (Doctors Without borders, 2015). The fleeing of the Syrians also placed

immense pressure on surrounding countries, which were tasked with caring for these refugees.

In Lebanon, the increase in the refugee population strained the availability of public services

and worsened tensions (Doctors Without borders, 2015). In 2016, the country of Jordan was

tasked with caring for 629,000 refugees, which was met with a removal of free health care for

refugees residing in camps. Additional countries, such as Iraq, hosted some 251,499 Syrian

refugees in 2015, while Turkey hosted more than one million (Doctors Without borders,

2015)

2.1.2 Syrian refugees in Germany.Germany has been the country of choice for fleeing Syrian refugees, along with Iraqi and

Afghani refugees. As with the other countries, this has caused tension amongst social groups,

who have not determined a method of addressing the growing refugee population. They flee

to Germany is unique, in a sense, because it is characteristic of refugees that will most likely


remain in Germany for a long period of time, particularly in the short term. There are both

benefits and downfalls to this fact. The German population continues to age, while the

population of Syrian refugees is generally younger. This, according to Engler (2016), can be

perceived as an opportunity. Contrastingly, however, the influx of refugees invites thousands

of people who maintain a very different culture, and therefore, their role in the job market

differs as well. Only in 2015, the number of Syrian refugees in Germany reached 476,649 (Dr

Engler, 2016).

Between 2013 and 2014, the German government created spaces to house 20,000 refugees, all

of whom were able to apply for work immediately, and were permitted to apply for a

residence permit that lasted for a two-year period (Dr Engler, 2016). In February 2017,

approximately 9 percent of job seekers in Germany were of refugee status, with more than

half of them being from Syria (Degler, Liebing, & Sophia, 2017). Germany maintained an

open-door policy toward refugees. This was enforced by German Chancellor Angela Merkel,

who defended her decision despite opposition from civilians and neighboring countries. By

2015, Merkel had permitted the admission of more than one million refugees into Syria. This

followed with a number of progressive policies, such as Germany’s suspension of the Dublin

Procedure for Syrians, which enforced that refugees from Syria could no longer be sent back

to the first European Union country they entered (De La Baume, 2017). Moreover, as Europe

faced this refugee crisis, Chancellor Merkel deemed it a national duty to take in refuges. In

2015, more than 890,000 people seeking asylum went to Germany, and during this same year,

more than 1,000 attacks were reported on the asylum centers. As of late, Chancellor Merkel

has continued to push for greater admission of Syrian refugees into Germany (De La Baume,

2017) this reflects the desire of the German government to benefits from these immigrant

after qualifying them to enter the labor market.

2.1.3 Challenges from the Syrian Refugee CrisisThe Syrian refugee crisis originated in the failure that occurred following the Arab Spring,

which resulted in a violent civil war in Syria and an increase in Islamic State’s presence.

Between 2011 and 2015, approximately 13 million Syrians left their homes (Ferris & Krisci,

2016), 12 Million in 2015 (World Vision, 2018), the number of Syrian refugees who moved

to Germany reached a very high numbers (Dr Engler, 2016). Researchers estimate that the

amount of public expenditure that Germany will spend for the basic needs and integration

within the labor market of the refugees it has accepted to be 0.5 percent of Germany’s GDP

(OECD, 2015, p. 2) Researchers estimate the public spending increase will result in the


aggregate annual demand increase in Germany to 0.3%. German government, it is estimated,

will spend approximately €10 billion in responding to refugees annually, and the individual

cost of a refugee is estimated to be €12000 for the nation (RWI Konjunkturbericht, 2015, p.

42). Thomas (2016) noted, however, that in spite of the extra expenditure, in 2015 the budget

surplus of Germany increased to €12.1 billion, which is historic. Such increase resulted from

the additional spending, which resulted in simulating demand domestically within Germany

(Thomas, 2016).

Countries that are politically and economically able to accept significant amount of refugees,

such as Germany, have shown generosity by accepting a large number of refugees from Syria

(Dullien, 2016, p. 5) . Such generosity was evident in the fact that although the legal

requirement as per the Dublin Regulation in accepting refugees required application for

asylum, the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, eradicated the requirement with the

intention of accepting more refugees in Germany and helping decrease other EU states’

burden who were at the border (Dullien, 2016). Such generosity, however, has resulted in a

challenge to the unity of the EU with respect to the Schengen Agreement, as multiple

countries, including Germany, reintroduced border controls in 2016 temporarily (Ferris &

Krisci, 2016, pp. 1-10). A proposal was suggested to create a smaller version of the Schengen

Agreement consisting of countries that were more willing to accept refugees, including

Germany; however, multiple countries such as Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary opposed the

reallocation of refugees between the member states of the EU (Lehne, 2016). As Germany

accepts more refugees, the costs of economic spending are argued to be considered prior to

the benefits the refugees may provide to the economy, as governments have to spend a large

amount of money in order to receive, process application, and rehabilitate the refugees with

meals, home, education, and labor market integration (Heisbourg, Global Politics and Strategy

). The estimated costs for such activities per applicant to the government can be as high as

€12000 . The concerns relating to the financial needs for accepting refugees have been

exacerbated among the public especially due to the global economic downturn and Brexit

Further (Kern, 2016). Studies have found that concerns regarding accepting refugees also

involve the lowering of wages as more individuals become a part of the labor market

following the rehabilitation of the refugees (Allen, 2017, p. 225). The possibility of choosing

between refugees and native population applicants for jobs, resulting from prejudice and

insecurity, could further hinder the assimilation of refugees in the host society (Shahran,

2016, pp. 8-10) other challenges resulting from the refugee crisis involves the unstructured


responses presented by different members of EU. There is a disparity between nations, such

as Germany, which have become overburdened from the resulting costs, and other nations that

have provided lower assistance as a result of unstructured system, Although researchers have

found that the most efficient way to deal with the challenges is to consider equal distribution

of refugees among EU members that reflects their financial abilities, such an effort has not

been possible due to lack agreement between the different EU states. The agencies

responsible for managing refugees either have little authority, or a lack of sufficient financial

capacity to assist in the crisis (Lehne, 2016). Additionally, legal problems resulting from the

sheer number of refugees have also disabled the ability of many EU nations to respond to the

crisis satisfactorily.

2.1.4 Opportunities from the Syrian Refugee CrisisAs already noted, accepting large number of refugees has led to higher public spending in

Germany. However, the higher spending has also resulted in higher demand. In spite of the

extra expenditure, in 2015 the budget surplus of Germany increased to €12.1 billion, which is

historic. Such increase resulted from the additional spending, which resulted in simulating

demand domestically within Germany (Thomas, 2016) . The increased demand has resulted

from the new market provided by the newly arrived refugees who purchase services and

goods from Germany. Such demand could expand the economy of Germany and enhance its

GDP. In Germany, the solutions for the financial requirements included the suggestion to

increase taxes to meet the expenditure needs (OECD, 2015). It is estimated that such tax could

contribute to fixing the difference between the needs of the government in spending and the

need to enhance the economy through higher supply of money.

Researchers have suggested that the government can only begin reaping the financial benefits

from refugees sustainably after the refugees become a part of the labor market (Dustmann,

Fasini , Fratini , Minali, & Schonberg, 2017). In fact helping refugees to enter the labor

market will help the German economy especially in investing in the youth and professional

skills. A groups such as the DIHK cooperated with the Federal economic ministry to establish

a network of more than 2000 companies including many small and medium enterprise to help

the refugees in order to integrate in the labour market (Dowling, 2019). Through the

identification of the accurate skills of the refugees and provision of adequate education, they

could be made into beneficial contributors to the German economy with good cooperation

between the ministry of immigration and the jobcentre to find the best way in order to prepare

the refugees through the educational and the training (OECD, 2017, p. 26/32/67). Researchers


have suggested that highly skilled professionals should not be made to work in jobs that do

not fit their talents, as this would result in missed opportunities for using their talents and

cause them to contribute lower tax in the economy (M Esses, Hamilton, & Gaucher, 2017). As

a result, those who have highlighted the potential opportunities presented by the refugee crisis

have noted the need to create education programs for the rehabilitation of refugees within the

Germany society that is in alignment with their qualifications. Although providing such

education would require additional spending, the benefits of such spending in the long-term

are greater as it would allow the highest possible contribution from the refugees to the nation.

Such contribution would also involve economic benefits to the existing companies, which is

the focus of this study. Researchers have suggested the need for cooperation between non-

profit organizations and government and private companies in order to provide beneficial

solutions for the challenges, both those in the long term and those on the short, resulting from

the refugee crisis. Research suggests the great potential to change the challenges resulting

from the rehabilitation of refugees into financially beneficial possibilities for private

organizations (M Esses, Hamilton, & Gaucher, 2017). For instance, the Federation of German

Industries has suggested that the refugees provide opportunities to host countries’ businesses.

In this regard, changes have also been suggested in the labor laws in Germany to enhance the

process of turning challenges into opportunities for the economy, especially with regards the

acceptance of refugees in the labor market. It has been suggested that, as government agencies

focus their attention on processing the application and ensuring the rehabilitation of refugees,

private organizations could assist by providing training, allocation, and assessment in the

workforce to refugees (OECD ilibrary, 2018, p. Chapter 3) .Syrian refugees are well-educated

and young. Additionally, they have shown interest in contributing to the economy, especially

by using the opportunities for employment in the private corporations. Researchers have,

therefore, called private organizations to identify and take advantage of the opportunities

resulting from the refugee crisis (IW REPORT 37/2017 INSTITUT DER DETSCHEN

WIRTSCHAFT, 2018, p. 10/13/15).

Although the potential opportunities for the economy of Germany have been highlighted in

the research, studies suggest that the concerns expressed by citizens regarding the loss of

employment are not irrational. At least in the near future, native population workers who

work in jobs that require unskilled labor may experience higher competition from newly

arrived refugees, which may lower their compensation Specifically, the short-term challenges

of refugee inflow includes the negative influence on native employees working in agricultural


jobs and the field of education. Following this period, however (M Esses, Hamilton, &

Gaucher, 2017) researchers have predicted that the presence of refugees will not lead to lower

compensation for the native citizens or their unemployment. It is also found that native

citizens, as a result of refugee inflow, begin to target their applications to employment

opportunities with higher wages. For instance, Foged and Peri (2015) found that the refugees

that entered in Denmark labor force beginning from 1991 affected the employment of those

working in law-skilled employments and the native citizens, in turn, targeted employment

opportunities with better wages. While in the near future the refugees have to accept jobs that

are lower to their qualifications, within two decades the distance between their qualification

and their employment as a whole reaches the same level as that of the native citizens, and

refugees begin to enjoy the same standard of living along with an equal contribution to the

economy (Foged & Peri, 2013, p. 1/4/10/14)

The benefits of refugee integration with respect to Syrian refugees have been documented in

the existing literature. For instance, Cali and Sekkarie (2015) found that, in the case of

Lebanon, which accepted more than a million refugees from Syria following the Syrian crisis,

a large number compared to the population of the country, the acceptance of refugees has

resulted in political problems. However, with respect to the economy, between 2013-2014, the

country experienced its fastest growth in the decade with 2.5% increase. This growth occurred

despite the fact that crisis in its neighbor country caused damage to Lebanon’s economy in

some aspects, such as tourism. The benefits resulted from accepting and rehabilitating the

refugees, who increased the demand, which the refugees paid through their income, savings,

aid, and remittance from relatives (Cali & sekkarie, 2015)

According to (Christian Bodewig) in a society consisting of an aging population such as

Germany, refugees provide benefits to the economy. Young refugees provide additional

contribution to the nation’s economy in the form of taxes and allow governments to allocate

more money to aged citizens’ welfare. Researchers have warned that countries which have

rejected to accept the require number of refugees in the EU may have the highest

requirements of such populations given their aging population. The aging population of such

countries will result in a slower growth of the economy and will increase the burden on the

social safety net. Germany, however, may benefit from the high number of refugees it has

accepted. The German birth rate, research suggests, is the lowest compared to other countries.

Additionally, it is decreasing with time. Researchers have suggested that by the middle of this

century, there will be a requirement of at least two people who are part of the labor force


opposite one citizen who receives pension. As a result, Germany will require a million and a

half high skilled workers from other countries to meet the demands. To meet the

requirements, German government has taken a number of steps, including modifying the law

to accommodate more flexibility to companies that higher refugees instead of hiring them

only in the absence of a native candidate. The focus of this study will be on contributing

towards the strategies that can be employed to take advantage of the opportunities presented

by the new refugees (Desilver, 2015)

2.1.5 Opportunities for Private SectorResearchers have begun to assess policies regarding the ways in which refugees are dealt

with. The opportunities for airlines between Germany and Syria with respect to the refugee

crisis could occur mostly with respect to the contribution of assimilated refugees to the private

sector. Researchers have found that some refugees, seeks of asylum, and other immigrants

experience difficulties with assimilation in the labor market as a result of lack of alignment

between their skills and the available jobs or not being wanted (Fasani, Frattini, & Minale,

2018, pp. 2-5). Such a lack of assimilation could result in the talents of refugees not being

utilized. This development harms not only the refugees themselves but also the economy of

their communities. As a result, researchers have studied and suggested the ways in which the

contributions of refugees can be productively used to strengthen the host country’s economy.

In the context of private sector, researchers have suggested the potential presented by refugees

that organizations can utilize through unique solutions that provide tools and integration to

refugees that allow them to become a part of the labor market and also increase the diversity

in the workplace, increase stakeholder trust, and decrease organizational turnover rates

(Dustmann, Fasini , Fratini , Minali, & Schonberg, 2017). An awareness of the possibility for

the private sector has resulted in many stakeholders in the private sector increasing their

investment in the potential of refugees and helping develop common values that provide a

link between non-governmental organizations and private organizations. However, the full

potential of the opportunities presented by the refugees in Germany remains to be realized.

Researchers have highlighted the need to recognize unique solutions that can be introduced to

actualize the potential of refugees for the economy and decrease the burden on the public

spending required for rehabilitation of the refugees (Carrera & Vankova, Human rights

aspects of immigrant and refugee integration policies, 2019, p. 13).


It is found that with respect to private sector, organizations are slow in welcoming refugees

despite the benefits that result from refugee employment and despite the shortage of labor in

Germany. Researchers have highlighted many benefits of assimilating refugees in the private

sector (Carrera & cortinovis, Global Compact on Refugees p2-8, 2019) Refugees are

adaptable and motivated. They have lower rate of turnover. Additionally, they introduce

diversity to the workplace, which can help innovation. Private companies may experience

benefits in their brand reputation if they show commitment and responsibility with respect to

social issues, which can increase the loyalty of their customers and trust of communities

(Dustmann, Fasini , Fratini , Minali, & Schonberg, 2017).

Due to their capacity for risks and resilience, refugees can help develop entrepreneurship,

especially in the context of local communities. Refugees may start small businesses and,

research findings suggest, may experience more success in doing so compared to the citizens

of their host countries. Private organizations can create investments in such initiatives by

providing refugees with training and investment. Many private organizations have introduced

programs for refugees to recognize the potential of refugees. Private organizations can assist

public services for employment through a collaboration that can be mutually beneficial,

especially in areas in which there is shortage of labor (OECD, 2017, pp. 43-61)

Refugees can interact with a private organization not only as employees but also as partners or

customers. Refugees can increase the economy of a community as consumers (Betts, Bloom,

Kaplan, & Omata, 2014). Due to the number of refugees accepted into Germany, their

purchasing power is high. Research suggests that local producers may target refugees for their

products, which may provide an important new market to the producers. Research conducted

in the context of Tanzania suggested that many farmers in the local area used their surplus

food to provide the refugees from neighboring Burundi and Rwanda (Verwimp & Maystadt,

2015, p. 21), which resulted in the farmers discovering a new customer base. Additionally, in

the 1990s, due to these refugees, the demand and rate for food increased, which provided

more benefits to the farmers in the area. Another case of refugees providing new market to

businesses was in the context of Uganda. Studies conducted on the outcomes of refugees in

the area suggested a significant impact of refugees as consumers of products by local

producers. It was found that the majority of refugees purchased food supplies from local

farmers (Betts, Bloom, Kaplan, & Omata, 2014).

Additionally, the findings of Betts et al. (2014) suggested that the economic activities of

refugees in the camps and areas where they settle resulted in a positive effect which benefited


the economies of the local communities across every stage. It was found that local businesses

are often preferred b refugees for their supplies. Local businesses, in turn, were found to

target their products across the camps and settlements of refugees. The businesses also

established storefronts, in which the refugees were employed, thus becoming both the

consumers and the producers in the local communities. The higher demand introduced by

refugees have been found to lead to higher employment and greater productivity in the

countries that host refugees.

Studies conducted on private businesses suggested that refugees had, on average, higher

chance compared to natives and non-refugee immigrants of becoming owners of small

businesses. This likelihood, in turn, create a chain of economic activities in the local

communities that resulted in more local employment not only for the refugees themselves but

also for the native country citizens. This finding was also supported in the study by (Betts,

Bloom, Kaplan, & Omata, 2014). In Uganda, it was found that entrepreneur refugees in cities

made 40% of their business’ work force from local citizens. This finding was also supported

in a research study conducted in Kenya by (Anna Lindley) in the context of refugees from

Somalia. Many hundred thousand refugees in the 1990s migrated as refugees to Kenya as a

result of the civil war in Somalia. The study was conducted in the district of Eastleigh in

Nairobi, which had approximately 60,000 refugees. It was found that, due to the arrival of

refugees, the neighborhood transformed from a residential area to a business district which

assisted the economic development of the city. (Lindley, 2007).The transformation included

investments in the housing and commercial areas to accommodate the demands presented by

the incoming refugees. It was found, additionally, that the development was not only for the

refugees. Instead, the majority of the development was by the refugees. A number of refugees

created small businesses. Displaced families from Somalia took up their previous enterprises

and crafts once again, which included export and import businesses, shopping stores, cafes,

lodging, and restaurants. Similar cases were noted in the context of Kenya at the Dadaab

refugee camp, with benefits to the economy resulting from the refugee intake estimated to be

$14 million annually (Enghoff, et al., 2010, p. 9)

Similar result on refugees as producers and consumers was also found in the context of

Pakistan regarding refugees from Afghanistan. Following the invasion of Soviets in 1979 in

Afghanistan, many Afghan nationals left for Pakistan. Findings from research conducted on

these refugees suggest that, in the context of productivity and entrepreneurship, the refugees

have dominated and developed the transformation industry in Pakistan for two and a half


decades (Zetter, 2012). It has been found that this productivity has had a significant influence

on their communities, creating opportunities for employment of native citizens.

Research conducted by (Bollinger & Hagstrom, 20111) using refugee data since the 1990

within the context of United States has shown that the refugees are found to have lower

likelihood of being poor compared to other groups of immigrants according to official

measures. The productivity of refugees has also been found to be higher, as compared to other

groups of immigrants, they worked 4% longer hours, took more risks in business, and made

20% more income. Although it is often lamented as a political issue, the findings from

research on the linguistic abilities of refugees suggest that compared to other groups of

immigrants, refugees are better at learning the local language, Their ability to adapt to their

local environment in terms of language assists refugees to become more productive both as

producers and consumers. Research on language was also conducted by (Waxman, 2006, pp.

472-505) in the context of Afghan, Bosnian, and Iraqi refugees in Australia. It was found that

refugees who were better at English received more possibilities of employment and being

productive compared to those who did not learn the language. As a result, refugees have more

pressure to learn the local language in order to survive.

In the context of this study, another important finding from research on refugees suggests

their ability to increase the ties between two countries, their original country and their host

country. After living in the host nation for at least five years, this ability was found to become

more significant (Sucharita, 2015). Such ties are often made in the context of trade, as

suggested from the literature. Particularly, immigrants arrive to their host nations with their

knowledge, culture, and relationships. Personal relationships of a large number of immigrants

can have a significant influence on trade in the long term that may be profitable to the host

nation. Although it is true that these findings in the context of refugees may not be as valid as

in the context of other immigrants, due to the fact that the relationship between the refugees

and their host country may not be positive (Sucharita, 2015). However, despite this

possibility, research conducted in the United States and Canada has suggested that refugees

may have a positive impact on the outcomes associated with the trade between their country

of origin and host nation.

Thus, research suggests that refugees can interact with the private sector of their host nation

not only as employees but also as producers or customers. The research on refugees as

customers, however, has not been conducted in the context of airlines. Airlines may benefit

the host country especially as refugees may utilize them for a variety of purposes before they


are accepted to their host nation and after they are rehabilitated. It is not known how airlines

may benefit from the presence of refugees and this area of literature has been understudied.

Although the findings from the existing literature suggests that refugees, as consumers, rely

on local business for their needs, such research has been lacking in the context of airlines in

Germany. The aviation relationship between Germany and Syria is based on the declaration of

the Air Transport Agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and the Arabic

Republic of Syria. However, this act, which was signed on November 14, 1983, was never

sanctioned. Currently, there is no document available about this agreement between the

Arabic Republic of Syria and the Federal Republic of Germany. It is important, therefore, to

examine whether it would be profitable to provide airfare between Syria and Germany, in the

future, due to the influx of Syrian refugees residing in Germany as part of the literature on the

benefits of refugees in the private sector. From all the previous studies and research, we are

given a positive indication that the economic repercussions are positive for the local economy

and that the Syrian refugees, the third largest foreign community in Germany. (DESTATIS ,

2019) (HINDY, 2018)

Are becoming an economic activity that is positive for the local economy and provides future

economic opportunities, in different study about 9% of all registered job applications in

Germany were Syrian Refugees also they are the second-highest educated group from the

total refugees seekers in Germany after the Iranian, and the highest registered as job seekers

by legal status with the highest recognized qualification applications in 2012. (OECD, 2017,

pp. 11-11) The desire of education is inherited in the Syrian community where the country has

seen the highest level of new student among other communities, the total number of the new

Syrian students reached 9% of the total foreign students in Germany as advanced category

(Beauftragten der Bundesregierung für Migration Flüchtlinge und Integration, 2016).


Those numbers represent the future stability of the Syrian community in Germany as they are

one of the highest educated job seekers with one very important advantage which is the

average age, comparing to the total population residing in Germany the Syrian community

exhibits a very young population profile and the average age of the Syrian immigrant is 26.8

years ( Ragab, Rahmeier , & Siegel , 2017, p. 50) in the air transport sector, this community,

which is close to one million people between the holder of asylum and between the applicant

for international protection part of them they will decide to return to Syria permanently and

there will be a larger part aspirations want to stay in Germany, especially those who entered

into life Economic and educational institutions in Germany, especially young people,

adolescents and children who have received a study in German schools and universities, but

Syria remains as a country of origin, which they wish to visit for several social and economic

reasons and that promising business opportunity for air transport between the two countries.

2.1.6 Syrian Refugees Transportation between Germany and Syria.When Syrians flee for Germany, they embark on a dangerous voyage that can take weeks, and

even months, to travel, it costs at least $3,000 per person for refugees to travel from Syria to

Germany. When many of the refugees arrive, they do not have any money left over.

Throughout their journey, the refugees are met with smugglers, who place high price tags on

traveling costs. This includes smugglers offering refugees rubber boats to travel to Greece –

which is how they enter into Europe – with no guarantee that these boats will not sink, for at

least $1,000 (Murdock, 2016). Without a place to live, refugees may sleep in hostels, in tents

or on the streets along the way. Germany provides a safe haven for these refugees; one that is

met with challenges by the country, which was and is acknowledged as a host country for

refugees (UNHCR, 2017). Between January 2017 and September 2017, a total of 139,635

refugees arrived in Germany. When considering this figure from 2016, which was 213,000,

the number was nearly cut in half. By the end of 2016, a total of 669,482 refugees resided in

Germany, while 60,000 visas for family reunification were issued during the first half of

2017. This influx did not occur without help, as the United States donated $162.37 million to


the cause. Between this same period, 168,306 people submitted an asylum claim, while

695,733 asylum cases had been decided (UNHCR, 2017). This entails a great responsibility,

as all of the asylum cases need to be provided with food, water, shelter, health care, and

schooling for children. These necessities add up, costing approximately $12,000 USD per

person. As stated, previously, the influx of Syrian refugees was thought to be unique in that

most Syrian families are anticipated to remain in Germany for several years. With these

families remaining in Germany, there is the question of whether there is the opportunity to

capitalize on providing Syrians residing in Germany with transportation to visit their families

in Syria. One of these means of transportation is airfare. Syria has two airlines, which include

Syrian Air, the national carrier and Cham Wings Airlines, and Germany, contrastingly, has a

list of airlines, one of which includes Lufthansa the National carrier. Currently, Syrian Air

does not fly to Germany and Lufthansa does not fly to Syria. The consideration is, however,

whether it would be profitable for these countries to provide direct transportation, not

necessarily for political reasons, but for travel and leisure reasons. This transportation would

not be provided during the ongoing conflict, but following the conflict, it is presumed that

transportation may be effective in providing Syrians with a way to visit family back home.

Not only may this be advantageous for Syria, but also for neighboring countries like Turkey,

Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt, which have all taken in Syrian refugees. refugees are

costly. But perhaps, there is a means of translating a new problem that may be a common feat

for Syrians residing in Germany, into capital. (HINDY, 2018).

2.1.7 Airfare relationship between Germany and Syria.The aviation relationship between Germany and Syria is based on the declaration of the Air

Transport Agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and the Arabic Republic of

Syria. This act, which was signed on November 14, 1983, was never sanctioned. An air

transport agreement refers to a contract between two countries that enables international air

transportation between these locations. Currently, there is no document available about this

agreement between the Arabic Republic of Syria and the Federal Republic of Germany, as the

agreement was never ratified (Mattem, 2018).According to the Luftahrt-Bundesamt website,

aircrafts that are not registered in the First Republic of Germany are not permitted to enter

Germany for transportation purposes unless approved by the government. This requires

outside countries to apply for entry permission to be granted by the Luftahrt-Bundesamt. In

order to do so, the carrier that is slated to provide the transportation such as Syrian Air must

apply for permission to provide charter flights to and from Germany. Aircraft carriers may

apply for a single flight or a chain of flights, and approval is often granted if there is a level of


reciprocity between Germany and the applying country regarding flights.The approval process

is not long, with Luftahrt-Bundesamt requiring two full business days’ worth of notice prior to

a flight for single flights (LBA Luffahrt.Bundesamt, 2019).On the contrary, Syria also has

laws to regulate the presence of German aircrafts. And all the requirmned documentation

must be sent to the Syrian Air Transport Department, the changing points for the Airlines in

the current situation is the insurance that must covers the region of Syria in regards to

aircrafts. According to Article 53 under Law 6 of the 2004 Civil Aviation Law, no aircraft is

permitted to fly into Syria without carrying the proper documentation and operating within the

laws and regulations of the country in which it is operating. This information is made ever

more challenging by the notion that the majority of the 193 countries in the United Nations

have avoided entering Syrian airspace since the Syrian War began eight years ago, out of fear

for possible airstrikes. In April 2018, Syrian Air remained the only aircraft carrier to offer

flights that entered Syrian airspace (Smith, 2018). The regularity frame work regarding the

Air transportation between Germany and Syria will be presented and elaborated more broadly

in Chapter 4.

2.2 The Regulatory Framework.To understand the regulatory framework between Germany and Syria the researcher will

present a sequential explanation of the relation between the two countries politically and

economically with the comparisons between the pre-post and post-war period and the current

situation of air transport sector in Syria, before entering into the details of the regulatory

framework in particular to the air service agreement between Germany and Syria.

2.2.1 The Political Relationship between Germany and Syria.The political relationship between Germany and Syria started few years after the second

world war after establishment of the diplomatic relations with the federal republic of

Germany in 1953, Syria opened an embassy at the government headquarter in Bonn, which

was initially the place of the Syrian general consulate in Lindenallee 64 Marienburg,

Underscoring the depth of diplomatic relations in the past (UNIVERSITATbonn). after Bonn

established itself as the headquarter of the west German government in the 1980s, Syria was

one of the countries that wanted to establish its diplomatic representation in the planned

embassy area on the edge of the Rheinauenpark in the south of the parliamentary and

government areas. Shortly before the fall of the Berlin Wall on 9 November 1989, Syria was

the only country to start building the embassy building on this site - which included both the

embassy building and the residence. Following the transfer of the German government to


Berlin in 1999, the Syrian Embassy moved there in 2002/03, the embassy built with oriental

unique interior design (Wenzel, 2017). Good diplomatic relations between the two countries

continued and a period of greater openness took place during President al-Assad's assumption

of power on June 21, 2000.In 2010 a group of German businessmen and politicians arrived to

the capital Damascus in appositive mood looking for a deep business relation with Syria as

the Syrian government opened its gates to the big Germans companies and looking for the

free market, the German delegation signed many contracts with Syrian government and found

a German-Syrian Business council together with Syrian partner. (Geopolitica, 2013). Now

Germany became the European front-state against Syria. Berlin stranded-politically against

Damascus in all traditional levels, economic, diplomatic In view of the repressive approach of

the Syrian government against the people and causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands

and the displacement of millions. The diplomatic representation between the two countries

continued uninterrupted until the beginning of crisis in 2011 when the German government

decided to close the embassy in Damascus in 2012, however the Syrian government still

maintains some form of consular representation in Berlin, while the German government has

only conducted consular affairs on the Syrian issue from the German embassy in

Beirut/Lebanon (German Embassy, s.d.).

2.2.1.1 Germany and the Syrian conflict.Germany has appealed for a peaceful resolution in order to solve the conflict in Syria and to

be developed through negotiations, with all the major actors engaged in the Syrian conflict.

Germany is a third-rate actor in the Middle East. It has limited possibilities of having a real

impact on the politics of this region dominated by Saudi-Iranian and Turkish-Iranian and

where the largest players like USA and Russia, trying to enforce their own interests. However,

Germany has been developing its diplomatic activity. Germany with sixteen other states are

the founding members of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG), which began

development of the outline of a peace plan for Syria from October 2015 during negotiations in

Vienna. The German Minister of Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier made a number of

visits to the region (including to Saudi Arabia and Iran,) before the talks in Vienna in October

2015 as well as in February 2016 German representatives are also present in UN structures

engaged in resolving the conflict in Syria. Towards the end of September 2015, (Frymark &

Gotkowska, 2016) Germany's participation in operations in Syria is proof of the German

government's keenness to try to restore stability in the country and prevent extremists from

taking control of economic and vital resources as German government aspires only to build a

future partnership with post-war Syria and avoid a military solution as much as possible,


Therefore, Germany has appealed for a peaceful resolution to the conflict to be developed

through negotiations, with all the major actors being engaged. Germany’s ministers of foreign

affairs and defense have presented political strategies for fighting Islamic State and resolving

the conflict in Syria. (Frymark & Gotkowska, 2016).

2.2.2 The economic relationship between Germany & Syria.As a result of the agreement of the international community not to divide Syria and the need

to find a political solution, Syria will remain for Germany and the West an important and

balanced country in the area of Middle East. Until 2011, the EU was its most important

trading partner, while Germany was at the forefront of its international partners with a trade

exchange of over $ 2 billion a year. Germany, as the largest importer of Syrian oil (Statista,

2019)

Figure (….)

(Statista, 2019)

While Siemens and. Thyssenkrupp, two of the largest companies in Germany shared strongly

with the development of telecommunications, ports and energy, and the manufacture of

medicines and medical equipment in Syria. On Oct 13th 2011 Siemens signed 425$ m

contract with the Syrian government in the field of electric power (The Economist, 2011).On

the other hand, there is great Syrian interest in the return of German companies to Syria

because of their high-quality products. (Kremer, 2017). The volume of trade exchange

between the two countries reached the highest level in the year between 2011 and 2012 and

then fell to its lowest level with the beginning of the crisis (Trading Economic, 2019).


Figurs …. (Trading Economic, 2019)

Even with the crisis in Syria, the Syrian government is drawing up plans for reconstruction,

and German companies are seen as ideal partners of quality and high efficiency, in addition to

Germany's great experience in reconstruction after the Second World War. (Kremer, 2017)

All these indications show that both countries are interested in maintaining good economic

relations in the post-war phase. This is in the interests of both parties due to the economic

benefit that German companies will gain if they participate in the reconstruction phase and

from the Syrian side, which will receive high-quality services for the reconstruction.

2.2.3 The Relationship between the European Union and Syria.As we highlighted the Syrian-German economic relations in the pre- and post-crisis periods.

And since Germany is a member of the European Union, it is influenced by any decision of

the European Union regarding the Syrian issue and affects the quantity and type of trade

exchange between the two countries according to the European regulations.

The bilateral EU-Syria relations are governed by the Cooperation Agreement signed in 1977

but it is partially suspended since 2012 due to the crisis in Syria. The UE and Syria negotiated

an association agreement, but the agreement has been put on hold due to the situation in Syria

this situation led to restrictive measures by the EU which reflected negatively on the bilateral

trade, which would automatically restrict the trade between Germany and Syria. Due to EU

restrictive measures, bilateral trade has dropped significantly since the crisis began in Syria, to

only 0.5 billion euros in 2016. Imports from Syria dropped by 97% and exports by 85%

compared to 2011, which reflects what we mentioned previously to the volume of Syrian-

German trade exchange and its decline markedly with the beginning of the Syrian crisis and

the adherence of Germany to European restrictions. (European Commission , 2019)

Figures …..

EU Trade flows and

balance, annual data

2008 - 2018

(European

Commission, 2019)


The IMF and UN estimated the cost of the reconstruction of Syria will reach 388 billion

dollars the first indication for the German companies as an incentive to invest in Syria in the

future. The UN also estimated the period of reconstruction between 10 to 15 years which an

induction for long term investment for the German companies. (Middleeast monitor, 2018)

(Associated Press, 2018). "Syria and Iraq offer real potential for the German economy," says

Philipp Andree, head of the Middle East unit of the German Chamber of Industry and

Commerce (DIHK). But the basic prerequisite for German involvement remains the

stabilization of the political situation and an end to the war. Siemens says its focus is on a

project in the area of energy production and the supply of medical technology to Syria, and

that it is "committed to contributing to reconstruction in this country." (Kremer, 2017).

The idea behind these statistics and linking them to the subject of the research is that if we

want to prove the existence of a business opportunity for air transport between Syria and

Germany after the war there should be a commercial background between the two countries

and an incentive for the German companies to invest in Syria, especially in the reconstruction

phase and this We have seen it through the previous statistics, which give us also an

estimation about one of the expected travelers category which is the business travelers not to

mention the main category in this research (which are the immigrants).

2.2.4 The Regulatory Framework in Particular to the Air Service Agreement between Germany and Syria.The aviation relationship between Germany and Syria is based on the declaration of the Air


Syria. This act, which was signed on November 14, 1983, was never sanctioned. An air

transport agreement refers to a contract between two countries that enables international air

transportation between these locations, in later meetings between the Aeronautical Authorities

of both countries the details of the bilateral air transport matters has been further defined

regarding designation, frequencies and points of landing. Air Transport Agreements are

publicly available only after ratification and publication in the Bundesgesetzblatt (Federal

Law Gazette) when the Agreement has been implemented in German law. As the Air



Syria is not yet ratified, therefore there is no document available about this agreement

between the Arabic Republic of Syria and the Federal Republic of Germany, (Mattern, 2018)

A previous Transport Agreement between the two countries signed on 06 July 1965 was

found in the Arabic version showing the consent of the Syrian government to ratify the

Convention signed between the two countries. (parliament of Syria, 2014) (Syrian Parliament)

It is clear that this convention has been abolished and replaced by the convention that was

signed in 1983. This signed agreement is not ratified in German law according to the ministry

of transport, however, this agreement entered into force. This is reflected in the history of the

flights operated by the national carriers between Syria and Germany. The sources concerning

the Air Transport Service Agreement between the two countries are very limited, which led

the researcher to find alternative ways to prove that the Agreements which are signed on 1965

and 1983 have already come into effect, reference to the old flight schedule for the Syrian

National carrier, the flight schedule for Syrian Air indicated that the company operated

commercial flights between Damascus and Munch since March 1964, the year of signing the

first agreement. (Airline Timetable Images, 2012). Other brochures and flight schedule shows

the Syrian Air operating commercial flight to Germany since 1990 (wikipedia, 2019).

According to Mr. Walter. Lufthansa the German National Carrier was operating 3 to 4 weekly

flights but the company ceased the operation to Damascus in 1999 due to commercial reason,

and no data still available before 1993 to find out the first flight for LH to Syria (Walter,

2018)

Figures..

According to Mr. Abdulhadi No official decision has been issued by the German or the Syrian

government to cancel this agreement based on the crisis in Syria, which mean The air

transport agreement between Syria and Germany was signed and still valid, but the operation

of the flights has been stopped since 2012 due to the unsafe situation in Syria and the sanction

imposed on The Syrian government by the European Community (Abdulhadi, 2018).


2.2.4.1 The sanction imposed by the EU.In response to the continued brutal repression and widespread violation of human rights by

the Syrian government, the EU has gradually introduced comprehensive restrictive measures,

starting in May 2011 (sanctionswiki, 2012). The restrictions were political, economic and

military and included the aviation sector which suspended the flights to and from Europe and

the prevention of the supply of spare parts and the sale, purchase or lease of aircraft, The EU

council decision concerning restrictive measures against Syria. The text of the resolution

contained the following.

1. It shall be prohibited, consistent with international law, to accept, or provide access to

airports in the Union by, exclusively cargo flights operated by Syrian carriers and all flights

operated by Syrian Arab Airlines, except where:

(a) The aircraft is engaged in non-scheduled international air services and landing is for non-

traffic or non-commercial traffic purposes, or

(b) The aircraft is engaged in scheduled international air services and landing is for non-

traffic purposes. As provided for under the Chicago Convention on International Civil

Aviation or the International Air Services Transit Agreement.

2. Paragraph 1 shall not apply to flights for the sole purpose of evacuating citizens of the

Union and their family members from Syria.

3. It shall be prohibited to participate, knowingly and intentionally, in activities the object or

effect of which is to circumvent the prohibition referred to in paragraph 1 (EUR-Lex, 2019)

On 28 May 2018, the Council extended EU restrictive measures against the Syrian regime

until 1 June 2019 (European Council, 2018).

2.2.5 The Regulatory Framework Stakeholders.There are many governmental and international organizations that define the regulatory

frameworks for the work of air agreements and the rights of air transport between the

countries. The researcher will list these entities to understand their requirements and their

impact on the future of air transport between the two countries.

2.2.5.1 (LBA) Luftahrt-Bundesamt.The Luftfahrt-Bundesamt (LBA) founded in 1954 - is the Federal Aviation Office located in

Braunschweig and directly subordinated to the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital

Infrastructure (BMVI). LBA is exclusively responsible for the commercial operators,


maintenance, flight operations, and security, LBA is the entity authorized to issue the

permissions to the operators in order to operate commercial flight to and from Germany,

whether for the operators from the EU or for the operators from outside the EU (LBA

Luffahrt.Bundesamt, 2019). Regarding the regularity frame work according to the Luftahrt-

Bundesamt website, aircrafts that are not registered in the First Republic of Germany are not

permitted to enter Germany for transportation purposes unless approved by the government.

This requires outside countries to apply for entry permission to be granted by the Luftahrt-

Bundesamt. In order to do so, the carrier that is slated to provide the transportation from Non

EEA state must apply for permission to provide commercial schedule flights to and from

Germany. The Aircraft operator can provide the schedule of the flights, number, timing of the

operation and approval is often granted if there is a level of reciprocity between Germany and

the applying country regarding flights (LBA Luffahrt.Bundesamt, 2019). The Aircraft operator

and in order to obtain the permission to operate flight to and from Germany shall submit and

fill in the following documents,

1. Articles of Association

2. Excerpt from the commercial register

3. Latest annual report /details concerning the board of management and the composition of

the capital

4. Flight Schedule and the List of fleet with details of the capacity of the aircraft

5. Certificate of Registration

6. Certificate of Airworthiness (if applicable: Airworthiness Review Certificate)

7. Noise Certificate

8. TCO-Approval

9. Third Party Legal Liability Insurance

10. Liability Insurance covering damage to persons, baggage, cargo and damage caused by

delay

11. Declaration concerning an authorized recipient in Germany

12. Air Operator Certificate with a validity of at least one year


13. Designation of the air carrier by the government of the state of registry for scheduled air

services between the state of registry and the Federal Republic of Germany

14. Estimate of the volume of traffic to be expected on the planned route for the first year of

operation

15. Aviation Security Plan

16. In case of carrying cargo and/or mail: ACC3-designation according to Regulation (EC)

No. 300/2008 for third country airports which security standards are not equivalent

17. Safety authorization issued by EASA. (LBA Luffahrt.Bundesamt, 2019)

2.2.5.2 Syrian Civil Aviation (SCA).The Syrian Civil Aviation was created after the independence in the 1950s and in 1958 was

attached to the ministry of defense, and then to the ministry of transport in 1974, in 2003 law

No. 20 established to create the Syrian Civil Aviation Authority as a public institution with

financial and administrative independence. The Syrian Civil Aviation Authority is responsible

to grant the permissions for the commercial flights within the Syrian air space for the local

and foreigner operators. As there is no official requirements published on the website of the

civil aviation authority in English, there is only one copy of the Syrian civil aviation law in

Arabic version where the third chapter shows all the requirements from the Aircraft operator

in order to operate flights from and to Syria. According to the texts and Articles of the Syrian

Civil Aviation Law, No aircraft may operate in the territory of the State except under a license

or official permit issued by the Syrian Civil Aviation Authority and to meet the following

conditions.

No aircraft may commence any flight unless the documents and records listed below are

borne. 1- Certificate of registration of aircraft. 2. Airworthiness certificate. 3. Licenses of the

crew members. 4- Technical record of the aircraft. 5. Journey log book. 6. Radio License. 7.

Operating manuals and maintenance documents for commercial air transport or air operations.

8. A list of cargo, mail and a statement of all its details, if the aircraft carries goods or mail. 9.

Load sheet & weight and balance. 10. A certified copy of the insurance documents.

11 Aircraft of noise certificate. (Low Group, 2017).

And according to Mr. Jnidi, In order to operate commercial flight to and from Syria by non-

Syrian operator the Aircraft operator must apply for entry permission to the SCAA contained

the following documents,


1. Designation letter from the German civil aviation directed to the Syrian civil aviation.

2. The operator must have an agent in Syria.

3. The agent must be approved by the Syrian economic ministry.

4. Commercial Agreement between the operator and Syrian Air for ground handing and

5.passengers handling.

6. Insurance to cover Syria.

7. All Aircraft documents to be sent to the SCA air transport department,

The Insurance certificate is the most challenging demand for airlines that wish to operate

commercial flights to Syria at the present time as most of the insurance companies refused to

grant insurance foe the airlines to land in Syria or even to fly over the Syrian airspace only at

a very high price.

2.2.5.3 International Civil Aviation Organization. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is an organization that was established

by the United Nations in 1944 to oversee the management of the Convention on International

Civil Aviation. One of the objectives of this specialized agency is that it helps its 192 member

states to collaborate to support a safe, secure, and efficient operation of the global air transport

network. The efforts of the ICAO have enabled 100,000 flights to take place every day,

worldwide (ICAO, 2019). The ICAO, however, does not comment on joint relations between

its member states, which include the states’ implementation of the ICAO’s standards and

recommended practices. The Convention on International Civil Aviation, however, which is

also known as the Chicago Convention, states that states maintain autonomous authority over

their airspace. This sovereignty entails the accountability of distributing risk advisories

concerning threats to the safety of civilian airspace operating within their airspace. These

threats may include the potential for armed conflicts, ash clouds due to volcanic eruptions,

missile tests, and rocket launches. These states also maintain the ability to close their airspace

whenever safety threats may permit this decision. Consequently, both aircraft and airline

carriers are held accountable for analyzing the international airspace risks that have been

communicated by other states in the United Nations before choosing where to fly. The ICAO,

therefore, does not maintain the responsibility of overriding autonomous states in order to

cease their airspace activity or redirect airline traffic (ICAO, 2019). The military or terrorist

conflict may occur in any country of the ICAO member states and that could pose risks to the


civil aviation, therefore it is important for all relevant actors such as the civil aviation

authorities, Aircraft operators and ANSPs to cooperate together in order to share all the

information in order to assure the safety of civilian flights. (ICAO, 2019). ICAO is able to

urge States to ensure the safety of their airspace and provide relevant support, however, there

are no unambiguous requirements specifying when States must close their airspace. For the

time being, ICAO believes there is no reason to review the Chicago Convention in this

respect. (ICAO, 2019).

Since the ICAO does not involve itself with the independent operations of autonomous states,

there must be an alternative method of considering how to build and support a bilateral

agreement between Germany and Syria to provide commercial flights, in light of the

immigration influx. If the two countries agreed to re-operate the flights after removing Syria

from the conflict list or after the civil aviation in Germany confirmed the safety of operation

within the Syrian airspace. The Aircraft operators are allowed to operate technical and

commercial flights according to Chicago convention 1944.

The participation of the Federal Republic of Germany effected in accordance with the

provisions of Article 93 of the convention and resolution of June 9, 1955, by Assembly of

ICAO. Effective June 8, 1956. (state.go, 2019). Syria signed on the agreement on 7 Dec 1944

and entered into force on 20 Jan 1950 (state.go, 2019).

The freedoms of the air are a set of commercial aviation rights granting a country's airlines the

privilege to enter and land in another country's airspace (ICAO, 2019). Those freedoms are

formulated due to the disagreements between the contracted states on Chicago convention

1944 about the aviation liberalization limits and considered as the main rules for the

international aviation network to grant the right to operate flights within the scope of

international signed agreement, those freedoms apply to commercial aviation and determined

the types of services which is allowed between two countries or more, even if this service

allowed by the country but the Airline still can face some restrictions under the terms of the

agreement or other reasons. (Boeing, 2009).

What is important for the two countries to start the operations is the first five freedoms as they

are officially enumerated by the international agreements specially Chicago agreement, The

Chicago convention provides that no schedule international air service may be operated over

or into the territory of a contracting state except with a permission or authorization (Jui

Cheng, 1995, p. 107). The operators can grant permission for schedule service via,


1. The transit agreement (Two freedom agreement Chicago conference).

2. The transport agreement (five freedom agreement Chicago conference).

3. The bilateral treaties between the states concerned. (Jui Cheng, 1995, p. 107)

With regard to the traffic rights granted by multilateral or bilateral agreements, most of them

cover fifth freedom traffic, these freedoms provide for the following,

1. First Freedom of the Air - the right or privilege, in respect of scheduled international air

services, granted by one State to another State or States to fly across its territory without

landing (also known as a First Freedom Right).

2. Second Freedom of the Air - the right or privilege, in respect of scheduled international air

services, granted by one State to another State or States to land in its territory for non-traffic

purposes (also known as a Second Freedom Right).

3.Third Freedom of The Air - the right or privilege, in respect of scheduled international air

services, granted by one State to another State to put down, in the territory of the first State,

traffic coming from the home State of the carrier (also known as a Third Freedom Right).

4. Fourth Freedom of The Air - the right or privilege, in respect of scheduled international air

services, granted by one State to another State to take on, in the territory of the first State,

traffic destined for the home State of the carrier (also known as a Fourth Freedom Right).

5. Fifth Freedom of The Air - the right or privilege, in respect of scheduled international air

services, granted by one State to another State to put down and to take on, in the territory of

the first State, traffic coming from or destined to a third State (also known as a Fifth Freedom

Right) (ICAO, 2019).

The Syrian and German Civil Aviation Authority may agree to apply some or all the

remaining freedoms under bilateral agreements which can be signed between the two

countries. The freedoms from one to five are more universal while the rest of freedoms are

more controversial. The liberal open skies agreement one of the least restrictive air service

agreement and include most of the freedoms ( Steinen & Probst , 2013, pp. 19-21)

From the sixth freedom to the ninth freedom not officially recognized under applicable

international agreement but it can be agreed between two or more countries, and these

freedoms provide for the following,


6. Sixth Freedom of The Air - the right or privilege, in respect of scheduled international air

services, of transporting, via the home State of the carrier, traffic moving between two other

States (also known as a Sixth Freedom Right). (ICAO, 2019)

7. Seventh Freedom of The Air - the right or privilege, in respect of scheduled international

air services, granted by one State to another State, of transporting traffic between the territory

of the granting State and any third State with no requirement to include on such operation any

point in the territory of the recipient State. (ICAO, 2019)

8. Eighth Freedom of The Air - the right or privilege, in respect of scheduled international air

services, of transporting Passengers between two points in the territory of the granting State

on a service which originates or terminates in the home country of the foreign carrier or (in

connection with the so-called Seventh Freedom of the Air) outside the territory of the granting

State. (ICAO, 2019)

9. Ninth freedom of the air refers to the right of a country’s aircraft to carry traffic between

two domestic points in a foreign country. The freedom facilitates traffic within a foreign

country without continuing service to one's own country. (ICAO, 2019).

2.2.5.4 European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)Germany is a member of the European Aviation safety Agency and its role does not depend

on the application and implementation of the safety procedures and restrictions issued by the

Agency, also to contribute to the enactment of those laws and procedures.

EASA confirmed that the Airlines themselves have the final say on which route they will fly

to reach their destination and they must gather information about any potential risk. (EASA,

2019). EASA published all the information regarding the flying over the conflict zone in the

conflict zone information Bulletin, EASA works with ‘rapid alerts’ that can be distributed

quickly through a special network of representatives of national aviation authorities within the

EU. In case of availability of a common EU risk assessment when a “high” risk level has been

concluded, EASA will initiate the drafting of a CZIB which, in some cases, may contain an

operational recommendation. Such recommendations are non-mandatory and do not constitute

flight prohibitions. (EASA, 2019)

EASA already listed Syria on the Conflict Zone Information Bulletin and it is valid until 25

Oct 2019. The decision taken by the Federal republic of Germany to prohibit the civil German

air operators to plan and conduct flights within FIR Damascus OSTT potential risk to aviation

due to a state of war including military operations. (EASA, 2019).


Similar to the case of ICAO, EASA leaves the decision to the Airlines and the Airlines at the

end governed to the Authority of civil aviation where the Airline registered, therefore for any

Airlines walling to operate commercial flight to Syria then they have to grant the permissions

from the two countries, while the ICAO and EASA only provide guidance and

recommendations.

2.3 The Current status of Air Transport in Syria (overview and expectations).Since 2012 most of the Aircraft operators suspended their operations to and from Syria due to

the crisis in the country, now that the current situation is witnessing a remarkable

improvement especially in the capital Damascus and the city of the Syrian coast and the

decline of war in the northern regions of the country, this is evidenced by the following

reports of many companies that are seriously considering re-operating in Syria and benefiting

from over flying the Syrian airspace, now Damascus is looking to make a comeback on the

international airline market. (Singh, 2019).

2.3.1 Airlines re-operate over the Syrian Airspace.At present, Middle East Airlines, and Qatar Airways are the only non-Syrian still flying over

Syria but the two operators do not land anywhere in the country. Both carriers obtained

permissions from the Syrian government to overfly the Syrian Airspace. By overflying Syria

Qatar Airways form Beirut to Doha saved one hour fuel flight time, and now Qatar Airways

will overfly Syria for all the flight to Europe (Macheras, 2019).

And regarding re-operate flights from and to Syria. Mr. Akbar Albaker the aviation analyst of

Qatar Airways said that Qatar Airways want to be comfortable more in order to star the

operation to the Syrian airport and the first reason that Qatar can’t operate to Syrian now is

about the insurance requirements. (Macheras, 2019).

According to Mr. Ali Hamoud. The Syrian minister of transport, there are more than 12 initial

requests from different airlines in order to re-operate the flight to and over the Syrian

airspace. Mr. Hamoud confirmed that the Syrian government is keen to reach these targets


and regarding the permissions, The Minister confirmed that the first overflying permission for

Qatar Airways has already been granted and the ministry of Transport will cooperate fully

with all Airlines wishing to re-fly in the Syrian territory, the Minister of Transport assured us

that among the Airlines companies that applied for the initial request to operate over the

Syrian territory there is a German Airline company and another Swedish without mentioning

the name of the two companies. The use of Syrian airspace would see “increased revenues in

hard currency for the benefit of the Syrian state which Syria has been deprived of for many

years, he added (Hamoud, 2018). This gesture may be a pre-emptive step from these

companies to obtain initial approval from the Syrian government, pending the outcome of the

situation in Syria, and waiting for the German government to grant formal approval to the

German Airlines for crossing the Syrian airspace.

2.3.2 Airlines preparing to make their move back into the Syrian market.With stabilization back on the horizon, Airlines are wasting no time in preparing to make their

move back into the Syrian market, with both, previous operators and newcomers expected to

announce nonstop flights to the country, Jordan Airlines one of those Airlines preparing to re-

operate commercial flights to and from Syria. A delegation from Jordan visited Damascus

Airport to check the safety and security regulations in order to resume the flights between

Amman and Damascus Airport (Moubayed, 2019). The CEO of royal Jordanian Stefan

Pichler said, we want to fly to Syria, it’s a very important market for us, Royal Jordanian

operated two daily flights before to Damascus and Aleppo Airports (Macheras, 2019). In the

Gulf, the UAE aviation regulator is serious in giving the green light to the UAE aircraft

operators to operate flights to Syria. (Arabnews, 2018). This comes after the decision of the

UAE government to reopen the UAE embassy in Damascus in December 2018 (Britton &

Faraj, 2018). Within the Same Area, Emirates and Etihad suspended fights to Damascus in

2012, the two operators requested to be briefed on the technical status of Damascus Airport as

they determined the viability to re connect the emirates of Dubai and Abu Dhabi with the

capital Damascus. (Arabnews, 2018). Flydubai also considering resuming flights to Syria

according to the Airline spokesman, The United Arab Emirate’s budget airline, Flydubai,

looking forward to resume the flights to Danscus, and the company studding the option to

reenter the market but they are waiting the final decision from the GCAA to reinstate the

UAE national carriers’ operations to Syria. ( Maceda, 2019). Not far from the UAE, Oman

Air is the first Airline to get the green light in order to re operate flights to Damascus and the

Omani flag carrier now recruiting a new staff at Damascus Airport. ( KEITH, 2019).


2.3.3 Airlines Operating Flights to and from Syrian Airports.By Now the only airlines seen operating flights from and to the Syrian airports include the

country’s flag carrier, Syrian Air, is Cham Wings Airlines the only Syrian Private Airlines so

far holding AOC 02. And Fly Baghdad the Iraqi private Airlines. The national carrier Syrian

Air scheduling international flights to Baghdad, Al Najaf, Cairo, AL Khartoum, Algeria,

Tehran and Moscow (SYRIANAIR, 2019). While Cham Wings operating flights from

Damascus Airports to Kuwait, Khartoum, Beirut, Istanbul, Adana, Baghdad, Najaf, Muscat,

Doha, Dubai, and local flights to Kameshli Airport (CHAMWINGS, 2019). As the only

foreign company Fly Baghdad operating international flight from Basra Airport in Iraq to

Damascus Airport (Flightera, 2019).

2.4 Indications about improving the situation in Syria.there are many developments in the current situation in Syria, which indicate the

improvement in the country during the last years, and the most important is the Russian

conflict in the Syrian situation which led to the siege of the conflict in the north of Syria,

specifically in the province of Idlib and the deployment of the Russian military police in the

Syrian cities and villages to prevent any retaliation or sabotage operations that may occur

between supporters and opponents of the regime ( Kabalan , 2018) (Yee, 2018).

Russia making every effort to resolve the situation in Syria and to impose its control on the

country in order to preserve its interests in the region. In February 2018 Russia and Syria

signed a multiyear roadmap in the energy sector and in the next month the Russian power

company Stroytransgaz signed a 50 years contract to invest in the Palmyra phosphate

deposits, the most important agreement for the Russian government is the agreement to rent

out the Syrian port of Tartus City for 49 years. (ESBER, 2019)

Other indication which is the announcement of the of Trump administration in March 2019

that U.S troops will withdraw from Syria as the troops finished their mission in Syria which is

defeating ISIS, leaving the entire territory to Russia to impose its influence in the country

(Schmitt, 2019). This may be the principle of sharing quotas between the two most powerful

countries in the world, as the US knows perfectly well that Russia will not abandon the last

base for them in the Mediterranean.

The return of UN troops to the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria and the agreement

of the two sides to reopen the Golan crossing is also evidence of the improvement in the

situation in the region (Benari, 2018). From the Arab side and after the step were taken by the

UAE government to reopen the embassy in Damascus, In October 2019 the announcement of


the Jordan government to reopen Nassib border crossing between the two countries after the

Syrian government with support from the Russian army fully regained control of the southern

region in July 2018,

Which will revive the commercial exchange between the two countries and facilitate the

movement of passengers and greatly affect the recovery of the market in the region fully, as

Lebanon relies on Syria for overland connections to Jordan all other countries. (Al-Khalidi &

Barrington, 2018).

The stability and the security situation in Syria is not confirmed and not guaranteed in the

nearest future, but for sure all the Airlines must see that reopening the Syrian market is more

close than any times in previous 6 years, the Gulf carriers are the most Airlines showed

interest to reopen the Syrian Market, most of the Airlines are still caution regarding the Syrian

Market because of the natural of the conflict in this country but the general impression is

positive.

Chapter 3 METHODOLOGYIn order to achieve the resurrect objectives the researcher need to answer many questions and

collect data and numbers via utilizing a mix of primary data based on a survey collected from

the target market participants and structured expert interviews, Those includes data from

international bodies like the Directorate General of Civil Aviation, official reports and

statistics the secondary data., information collected from reports, journals and websites.

3.1 General Methodology.The primary research approach based on deductive approach theory the working theory title,

stating that there is an business opportunity from air travelers between Germany and Syria

and there was a need for a deductive marketing approach for the Syrian immigrant willing to

travel to Syria after the war, as a start there is as search explain the new situation of aviation

business between Germany and Syria and expectation of the Syrian immigrant numbers in

Germany and the possible impact on the aviation market by collecting data and presenting the

respective result . choosing a deductive approach in this research to simplify the market

theory of the topic and apply it to a specific phenomenon and approve this theory from the

data collected and analyze it throw the research methods (Saunders , Lewis , & Thornhill,

2000, p. 61) not choosing anther approach because other approach will not take the topic

theory for this research as a back ground and the research must start from scratch which is not


the case here, in this research case we have the theory from the literature review and data

collected from the research design therefore the research moving from theory to data.

3.2 Research Design.The research design section gives an overall view of the method chosen and the reason for

that choice (Saunders , Lewis , & Thornhill, 2000, p. 43), the research will use a combination

of research design qualitative and quantitative design. The qualitative design will be used to

discuss the theory of our research with the data collected about the Syrian immigrant in

Germany in order to evaluate the theory and answer some questions from the structured

expert interviews and discus with the expert the impact on the aviation business the, using

qualitative design will allow us to understand the natural of this phenomena while using the

export interview to answers the main questions from the exports pion of view in the same

time using the interview with experts to collect some historical data and numbers about the

market demand in the past, number of flight, average load factor and revenue this part will

follow a quantitative design even the survey used in this research will follow a quantitative

and qualitative design as it will collect data and numbers and it will give information’s about

the type and the classifications of the travelers also following a quantitative design in the

survey will give the information’s about the numbers of the travelers willing to travel and how

many times, by analyzing those information’s and compare the data and numbers derived

from the survey with the historical data collected from the interviews we can build up an

assumption about the market and determine the size of the market, in outline to improve the

theory of the topic and defined if there is a market for air travel from the Syrian immigrant in

Germany. Using mixed methods, both qualitative and quantitative, are possible, and possibly

highly appropriate, within one study (Saunders , Lewis , & Thornhill, 2000, p. 109)

The first interview was conducted with Mr. Fawaz Abdulhadi Former station manager for

Syrian airlines at Munch Airport and flight operations manager for Syrian Airlines.

The second interview was conducted with Mr. Christoph Walter. He is in a

management position of network planning at Lufthansa.

The third interview was conducted with Mr.Nizar Sulayman the commercial manager

for Cham Wings airline the first private airlines in Syria.

The fourth interview was conducted with Mr. Volker Mattern from the Federal

Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure.

The fifth interview was conducted with Mr. Fadi Jnidi the Air Transport Manger for

the Syrian Civil Aviation.


3.3 The Research Survey.Using the survey study associated with the deductive approach allow the researcher to answer

who, what, where and how much, and allow the collection of a large amount of data from a

sizable population, using the survey study gives more control over the research process when

sampling is used. (Saunders , Lewis , & Thornhill, 2000, p. 144). Using the survey

questionnaire in the research and follow the two research design quantitative and qualitative,

to give us answers regarding the proof of the research theory. And to give a percentage where

we can build an assumption and predict the size of the market in the future. Through our

targeting of the required category (the Syrian community in Germany) both those who came

to Germany because of the war (the refugees) or who were mainly in Germany before the war.

After analyzing the data collected through the survey and knowing the percentage of people

who would like to travel to Syria after the war, and comparing these numbers with the old

numbers that we obtained from the two airlines that were operating previously between

Germany and Syria (Lufthansa & Syrian Airlines) We can prove the research theory that there

is a business opportunity from immigrant willing to travel between Germany and Syria after

the war and even give us the forecast of the increase in the market because of the increase in

demand arising from the increase of the populations, and with analyzing the other data from

the questionnaires survey we get additional information such as the type of travelers, the

expected market size and the number of flights required to cover the demand and preferred

airports by travelers.

3.3.1 The Survey Questions.Table 3.3.1

Question Intention Do you want to Travel to Syria after the war?

To know the initial market size from the total target market

Will you return to Syria permanently after the War.?

To specify the temporary and the permanent market.

If you want to live in Germany even after the war how many times you are willing to visit Syria? And are you traveling alone or with the family?

To specified the traveler’s category.

Which Airport you prefer in Germany and Syria?

To specified the catchment area

Do you prefer economic or business class To specified how many leisure and how many business travelers.

Did you arrived to Germany before or after 2011?

To compare between the market before and after the war.


CHAPTER 4 MARKET INVIROMENT.This chapter will include a discussion of the market under study, which includes information

about refugees in general, refugees from Syria, and refugees from neighboring countries,

followed by a discussion about businessmen, and regular travelers, as these groups pertain to

the consideration to airfare between Germany and Syria. Also will include a supply-side

analysis for players at both ends (Syria, Germany) and other carriers who are or might be

active in the Syrian market and offer the 3rd and the 4th Freedom, connecting services

between Syria and Germany.

In this research we are not defending and analyzing the market as much as it is to prove the

research theory as we are not creating a product and try to find where and to who we can sell

this product, the Idea of the research topic builds on an existing business market, but this

market was frozen due to war and during this suspend the costumers they couldn’t use this

service and the target market increased under these circumstances, and when the reasons for

stopping these services finished the customers will need to have these services or this product

again but this time the demand will be much bigger than before.

4.1 Target Market / Market under-Study.The target market or the expected costumers are the air travelers between Germany and Syria

which they increased by big numbers because of increasing the numbers of Syrian refugees in

Germany, The product is the aircraft set offered by the two main competitors in this market

before, which they are two national carriers, Lufthansa and Syrian air, in addition to other

carriers, who are or might be active in the Syrian market and try to be part of the market

share, and in this research will concentrate on the two national career and the private airlines

registered in the two countries as they are the most fortunate to get a part of the market share

for their ability to operate direct flights between the two countries benefiting from the five

freedoms. (2.2.4).

4.1.1 Refugees.Refugees and seekers of international protection are the main focus of the research and the

main component of the research theory. The idea of the research is rooted in the suffering of

the refugees and the hope of the post-war. It is certain that wars have brought to humanity

only destruction, killing, and suffering. In most circumstances, civilians pay the bill for these

wars and its expensive bill. It will be paid in several ways, Homes, and money from the

material part and the bill may be more expensive than that, and some of them may pay their

lives or losing part of their bodies as a bill for this war. And the war has other bills paid by


displaced civilians in the form of lost dreams and wasted hopes and memories have been left

behind the doors of their destroyed homes. What is hoped for most of the displaced and the

escapees from the scourge of war is the hope of the end of this war and the dream of a better

future to restore the smile to their exhausted hearts and their miserable lives? At least for the

new generation that may wish in the future to return only to the home country to participate in

its reconstruction and build a better future. Despite all this, there are post-war requirements

and there is always a beneficiary and loser of the war. A loser from one side and a winner

from the other side, during the wars there are always beneficiaries who create business

opportunities during the war may be the dirty business like trading with human lives and the

exploitation of their needs, and it could be a clear business which aims to achieve to make

business during the war but without exploitation. After the war there are displaced people who

have adapted and integrated into the society fully, but in the end they want to return to their

mother country either to visit their homeland or to visit what remains for them from the

family and friends, And there is also another part which is waiting for war to end to return to

his country permanently. In both cases, there is a new market and this demand must be

covered in the future.

4.1.2 Refugees from Syria.Through researching and collecting the data about the Syrian refugees in Germany, we find

that the flow of refugees to Germany began with the beginning of the war in Syria and began

to increase gradually until reaching its peak in the year 2015 and then retreated in recent year

due to the tightening of controls on the borders and held several agreements on the

distribution of refugees in Europe. (Chase, Refugee numbers in Germany , 2018).

During the analysis of the data obtained about the numbers of refugees who arrived in

Germany during the period between the outbreak of the war and the year 2018 which is based

on the information provided by the German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees

(BAMF) and the Federal Statistical Office. The data can be analyzed for each year as follows:

According to the Central Register of Foreigners AZR the most common nationality of all

persons who received a residence permit in 2017/2016 were Syrians (BAMF, 2017).

In the statistics of 2014, the numbers of Syrian refugees was 51.525 with 6.6% from the total

of third-country nationals who received a residence permit in Germany. (BAMF, 2015, p. 12).

The statistics for the year 2015, shows’ that the number of Syrian refugees received a

residence permit reached 112.879 with 13.2% from the total of third-country nationals who

received a residence permit in Germany (BAMF, 2016, p. 12). Where the percentage of the


Syrians who received residence permit, a Blue Card EU or a settlement permit in 2016 and

2017 (567.736) persons. 267.087 with 21.9% from the total of third-country nationals who

received a residence permit in Germany in 2017 and 300.649 with 27.1% from the total of

third-country nationals who received a residence permit in Germany in 2016 , And most of

those permits issued for humanitarian reasons. (BAMF, 2017, p. 12).

Figures…..

And this brings the total to 732.140 and in order to confirm this number the data was sent to

the Federal Statistical Office and they explained that at the end of 2017 the number of Syrian

nationals was 698,950. The difference in numbers is due to the fact that there are many

applications that were rejected later or transferred to other countries of the European Union

under the Dublin Convention. After that, we add the number of Syrians who are residing in

Germany prior to the war as employees or students and they don’t hold a refugee status.And

to reach approximate statistic for the year of 2018 we added the numbers of Syrians who

received a residence permit, a blue card EU or settlement permit and they are 26.095. (BAMF,

2018, p. 5). To reach a total number of 725.045 of Syrian nationals in Germany.

The Syrians are now the third largest community in Germany after the Polish and Turkish

community. (destatis., 2018, p. 15). Figures …


And in order to obtain more credibility about the numbers and statistics collected from the

official statistics reports and in order not to be caught in any confusion may be due to the

multiplicity of statistics between the versions of the different report, the researcher managed

to contact the Destatis (The Federal Statistical Office). to gather the last data about the Syrian

Immigrant in Germany until 2018 and about the Syrian immigrant in Germany before the war,

in order to build two segments of immigrants, the pre-war immigrant segment and the post-

war immigrant segment, which will help the researcher when analyzing the data and

comparing the previous market with the expected market after the war. The excel sheet with

all the data received from the Federal Statistical Office will be included in annex? And as a

final result the researcher summarized the data as following:

The Syrian Immigrant Before 2011 The Syrian Immigrant after 2011

4.2 Main Players

4.3 Infrastructure

CHAPTER 5 RESEARCH FINDINGS & ANALYSIS.

CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION.

CHAPTER 7 RECOMMENDATION & LIMITATION.


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