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Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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AMIR TECHNICAL SERVICES LLC
INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY
AZERBAIJAN NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
REPUBLICAN SEISMIC SURVEY CENTER
AZERBAIJAN NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
INNOVATIONS IN MINIMIZATION
OF NATURAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS
ABSTRACTS
OF THE FIRST EURASIAN CONFERENCE
“RISK – 2019”
22 – 24 May 2019, Baku, Azerbaijan
Baku – 2019
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Book of abstracts and Program of the First Eurasian Conference "Innovations in
minimization of natural and technological risks", May 22 - 24, 2019, Baku, Azerbaijan,
136р. Main purposes of conference were to unite scientists and specialists from different fields of
knowledge and give them opportunities to share - information, ideas and innovative solutions in
minimization of the natural and technological risks on Eurasian continent, promote knowledge
exchange on risks, innovations and advanced technologies of risk minimization and
support Millennium Challenges and Sendai (Japan) Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-
2030 under UNO.
Книга тезисов и Программа Первой Евразийской конференции «Инновации в
минимизации природных и технологических рисков», 22 – 24 мая 2019, Баку,
Азербайджан, 136с. Основными целями конференции были объединить ученых и специалистов различных
отраслей знаний и предоставить им возможности обмена информацией, идеями и
инновационными решениями минимизации проблем в области природных и техногенных
рисков, на Евразийском континенте, способствовать передаче знаний о рисках, инноваций и
передовых технологиях минимизации рисков, а также поддерживать Вызовы третьего
тысячелетия и Сендайскую (Япония) рамочную программу действий ООН по снижению риска
бедствий на 2015–2030гг. в качестве руководящего базового документа, в котором отражены
стратегические цели и приоритетные направления действий, а также ожидаемые результаты.
ISSN 978 – 9952 – 8357 – 8 – 6
© Vugar Aliyev
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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SUPPORTERS – ПАРТНЕРЫ
➢ Ministry of Emergency Situations,
Center of Strategic Investigations, RUSSIA
➢ Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Working Group
“Risk and Safety” under the President of RAS, RUSSIA
➢ Institute of Geography
National Academy of Sciences, AZERBAIJAN
➢ Republican Seismic Survey Center
National Academy of Sciences, AZERBAIJAN
➢ Georgian Technical University
Institute of Water Resources, GEORGIA
➢ Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection
Institute of Ecology and Environmental Protection, UZBEKISTAN
➢ National Academy of Sciences, Institute of Radiobiology, BELARUS
➢ Technical University, MOLDOVA
➢ National Eurasian University, KAZAKHSTAN
➢ Rezekne Academy of Technologies, LATVIA
➢ Risk Analyze Society, RUSSIA
➢ OGS – Energodiagnostika
Industrial and Environmental Safety, RUSSIA
➢ Pasha Travel, AZERBAIJAN
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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ORGANIZING COMMITTEE
ОРГАНИЗАЦИОННЫЙ КОМИТЕТ
JOİNT STAFF
General Chair: Prof.Dr. Vugar Aliyev,
Director
AMIR Technical Services LLC
AZERBAIJAN
Co-Chair: Academician Nikolai Makhutov
Head of the Working Group
“Risk and Safety” under the
President of Russian Academy of Sciences, RUSSIA
Co-Chair: Prof.Dr. Motoki Kazama
Tohoku University
Vice President of the
Japanese Geotechnical Society, JAPAN
Executive Secretary: Dr. Emil Gafarov,
Department of Emergency Situations and Human
Life Safety, Azerbaijan University of Architecture
and Construction, AZERBAIJAN
MEMBERS OF ORGANIZING COMMITTEE
ЧЛЕНЫ ОРГАНИЗАЦИОННОГО КОМИТЕТА
Prof. Dr. Academician Ramiz Mammadov, Director Institute of Geography,
National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan Republic
Prof. Dr. Academician Gurban Yetirmishli, General director Seismic Survey Center National
Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan Republic
Ass.Prof. Haider Khwaja, Department of Environmental Health Sciences
School of Public Health University at Albany, Albany, NY, USA
Prof.Aliakbar Rasouli, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and
Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
Doc.PhD., Igor Cheshik, Head of the International Center of Minimization of Radiation Risks,
Director of the Institute of Radiobiology National Academy of Science, Belarus
Assist. Prof. Dr. Vesna Tunguz, Faculty of Agriculture University of East Sarajevo, Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Prof. Dr. Emil Bournaski, Director Climate, Atmosphere and Water Research Institute Bulgarian
Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Prof. Dr. Palma Orlović-Leko, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering
University of Zagreb, Croatia
Dr. Irena Ciglenecki Jusic, Division for Marine and Environmental Research
Rudjer Bošković Institute, Zagreb, Croatia
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Lena Halounova, Faculty of Civil Engineering Czech Technical University in
Prague, Czech Republic
Prof. RAS, Dr. Ira Didenkulova, Laboratory of Modeling of Natural and Anthropogenic
Disasters, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University Russia, Department of Marine Systems,
Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia
Prof.Dr., Givi Gavardashvili, Director Institute of Water Resources, Georgian Technical
University, Georgia
Prof. Rolf-Dieter Wilken, Applied Hydrochemistry Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Germany
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Daya Shanker, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of
Technology Roorkee Uttarakhand, India
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bahman J. Amiri, Senior Specialist Faculty of Natural Resources, University of
Tehran, Iran
Honorary Prof., Dr. Vladimir Gurevich, Senior Specialist Central Electrical Laboratory Israel
Electric Corp. Haifa, Israel
Dr. Virgilio Anselmo, Director Anselmo associati, Chieri, Italy
Academician Akhmetkal Medeu, Director Institute of Geography, National Academy of
Sciences, Kazakhstan
Prof. Dr. Iyad Ahmed Abboud, Professor of Environmental Geochemistry Faculty of Sciences
Taibah University, Kingdome of Saudi Arabia
Prof. Dr. Kamchibek Kojogulov, Director Institute of Geomechanics and Development of
Subsoil National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic
Prof., Dr.Peter Grabusts, Faculty of Engineering, Rezekne Academy of Technologies, Latvia
Assist. Prof. Ina Zivatkauskiene, Head of Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of
Technology Kaunas university of Applied Sciences, Lithuania
Dr. Otilija Miseckaite, Water Resources Engineering Institute Faculty of Water and Land
Management, Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania
Academician Nikolai Makhutov, Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Working Group
“Risk and Safety”, Russia
Dr. Paramesh Banerjee, Technical Director, Earth Observatory of Singapore Nanyang
Technological University, President, Asian Seismological Commission (IASPEI/IUGG),
Singapore
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Prof.Dr. Farshed Karimov, Department of Geology and Mineral Exploration Tajikistan National
University, Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of
Sciences, Tajikistan
Prof.Dr. Dursun Yıldız, Expert on Hydropolitics Director SPD Hydropolitics Academy Center,
Ankara, Turkey
Prof.Dr. Emil Esenov, Research Institute of Seismic Resistance Construction, Ministry of
Construction and Architecture, Turkmenistan
Prof. Anatolii Pavlenko, Faculty of biotechnology, Open International University of Human
Development “Ukraine”, Ukraine
Prof.Dr. Sergei Sazhin, Professor of Thermal Physics Sir Harry Ricardo Laboratories School of
Computing, Engineering and Mathematics University of Brighton, United Kingdom
Prof.Dr. Roman Ibragimov, Laboratory of Regional Seismicity and Seismic Zoning, Institute of
Seismology, Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan
SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE
НАУЧНЫЙ КОМИТЕТ
Academician Garib MAMMADOV, Faculty of Ecology and Soil Sciences, Department of Soil
Sciences, Baku, State University
Academician Islam MUSTAFAEV, Department of Emergency Situations and Human Life
Safety, Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction
Academician Jiang GUIBIN, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, China
Academician Kamchibek KOJOGULOV, Institute of Geomechanics and Development of
Subsoil, National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic
Prof.Dr. Alex SIDORENKO, Institute for Strategic Risk Analysis in Decision Making, Risk
Academy, Russia
Prof.Dr. Andrey BIKOV, Editor-in-Chief, Russian Journal “Issues of Risk Analysis”, Russia
Prof.Dr. Bahadur GALANDAROV, Faculty of Geology, Department of Hydrogeology and
Engineering Geology, Baku State University, Azerbaijan
Prof.Dr. Battogtokh DORJGOTOV, Institute of Geography and Geoecology, Mongolian
Academy of Sciences, Mongolia
Prof.Dr. Dursun YILDIZ, SPD Hydropolitics Academy Center, Ankara, Turkey
Prof.Dr. Ekrem TUSAT, Selcuk University, Cumra School of Applied Sciences, Konya, Turkey
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Prof.Dr. Farshed KARIMOV, Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology
Academy of Sciences, Tajikistan
Prof.Dr. Gergana KOSTADINOVA, Department of Applied Ecology and Animal Hygiene,
Faculty of Agriculture, Trakia University, Bulgaria
Prof.Dr. Habib TORIKUL, Department of Geography and Environment
Dhaka University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Prof.Dr. Hakim DJERIOUAT, University of Toulouse, France
Prof.Dr. Hi-Ryong BYUN, Pukyong National University, Department of Environmental
Atmospheric Sciences, Busan, South Korea
Prof.Dr. Karolien van NUNEN, University of Antwerpen, Belgium
Prof.Dr. Khanduri SUSHIL, Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre, Department of
Disaster Management, Uttarakhand Secretariat, India
Prof.Dr. Livia NISTOR-LOPATENCO, Faculty of Construction, Geodesy and Cadastre,
Technical University of Moldova
Prof.Dr. Meherrem GASANOV, Institute of Geography, National Academy of Science,
Azerbaijan
Prof.Dr. Menafeddin NAMAZOV, Process Automation Engineering Department, Baku
Engineering University, Azerbaijan
Prof.Dr. Mirzohid SAFAEV, Institute of Ecology and Natural Resources, Ministry of Ecology
and Natural Resources, Uzbekistan
Prof.Dr. Palma ORLOVIC-LEKO, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering
University of Zagreb, Croatia
Prof.Dr. Peter GRABUSTS, Faculty of Engineering, Rezekne Academy of Technologies, Latvia
Prof.Dr. Petros PATIAS, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Faculty of Rural and Surveying
Engineering, Thessaloniki, Greece
Prof.Dr. Roman IBRAGIMOV, Laboratory of Regional Seismicity and Seismic Zoning,
Institute of Seismology, Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan
Prof.Dr. Rza MAHMUDOV, Institute of Hydrometeorology, Ministry of Ecology and Natural
Resources, Azerbaijan
Prof.Dr. Sevinc HAJIYEVA, Faculty of Ecology and Soil Sciences, Department of Ecological
Chemistry, Baku State University
Prof.Dr. Shovgi GEOKCHAYLI, Faculty of Ecology and Soil Sciences, Department of
Geographical Ecology, Baku State University
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Prof.Dr. Suocheng DONG, Lab for Resources Use and Environmental Remediation, Institute of
Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,
China P.R.
Prof.Dr. Sven FUCHS, Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, Austria
Prof.Dr. Thomas GLADE, Geomorphic Systems and Risk Research, Department of Geography
and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Austria
Prof.Dr. Vagif MAMMADOV, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Department of Limnology,
Azerbaijan
Prof.Dr. Valery LESNYKH, GASPROM, Gasnadzor, Moscow, Russia
Prof.Dr. Vesna TUNGUZ, Faculty of Agriculture, University of East Sarajevo, Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Prof.Dr. Vladimir GUREVICH, Central Electrical Laboratory, Israel Electric Corporation,
Haifa, Israel
Prof.Dr. Vladimir NADEIN, OGS –Energodiagnostics, Russia
Dr. Anar AHMEDOV, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Antanas Gustaitis’ Aviation
Institute, Department of Aviation Technologies, Lithuania
Dr. Arkady GRANOVSKIY, Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Russia
Dr. Ayten AHMEDOVA, Department of Emergency Situations and Human Life Safety,
Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction
Dr. Emil GAFAROV, Department of Emergency Situations and Human Life Safety, Azerbaijan
University of Architecture and Construction
Dr. Mohammad OMAR, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, United Arab Emirates
Dr. Natalia PUZAN, Institute of Radiobiology, National Academy of Science of Belarus
Dr. Stefano VIGNUDELLI, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Pisa, Italy
Dr. Larisa Agaeva, Scientific Research Institute of Antiseismic Construction Ministry of
Construction and Architecture, Turkmenistan
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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CHAIRMAN’S MESSAGE
Dear participants!
It’s our pleasure and honor to welcome more than 150 experts from 26 countries of the world at
the First Eurasian Conference on “Innovations in minimization of natural and technological
risks”, 22 – 24 May, 2019, in Baku Azerbaijan.
Events taking place as in Azerbaijan as all over the world feature intensification of global
problems related to provision of complex security of population and territories from natural and
technological emergencies. Over the past 25 years, disasters and technological emergencies in
the world have killed more than 3 million people and over 1 billion have suffered casualties.
Undoubtedly, it takes continuous study and monitoring of risks for population and territories and
search of effective control mechanisms in order to prevent emergencies and minimize their
consequences.
We are pleased that some Eurasian countries have accumulated a considerable work experience
on given topic. Nevertheless, the world scientific community expresses concerns of people and
countries being victims of accidents and disasters, death and suffering, destruction of historical
values. We think that the root cause of emergencies arises from insufficient explanatory work,
estrangement from attempts to warn about and prevent emergencies well as from deficiency of
work done on development of risk minimization systems for natural and anthropogenic
emergencies.
Emergencies remain one of the most serious obstacles on achieving sustainable development of
and establishing security in countries. Therefore, developing means of minimization of disaster
consequences through the analysis of risks and innovative control of them in order to create
possibilities for strengthening the sustainable development of countries, as well as development
of reliable protection of population from emergencies are among the most important social and
government tasks.
With regard to it we address to all scientists and specialists of Eurasian countries to intensify
research of innovative solutions of minimizing natural and technological risks. Taking into
consideration the presence of organic interrelation between the minimization of emergency risks
and sustainable development of the countries it is important to involve all interested parties in
work on analysis, estimation and managements of risks.
We appeal to all interested parties to take an active part in the conference, to share experience
and knowledge, and to contribute to common cause of continent steady progress.
Main purpose of conference:
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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to unite scientists and specialists from different fields of knowledge and give them
opportunities to share - information, ideas and innovative solutions in minimization of the
natural and technological risks on Eurasian continent;
to promote knowledge exchange on risks, innovations and advanced technologies of risk
minimization;
to assist with understanding and professional interaction of scientists and organizations to make
joint contribution to the theory and practice of risk analysis and innovative solutions including
protection of population and territories from natural, technological and anthropogenic
emergencies;
to improve cooperation and understanding between entities in the energy (oil, gas, Solar and
wind) industry, and collaboration between the energy industry, research institutions and
academic institutions with regards to energy subjects;
to support Millennium Challenges and Sendai (Japan) Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
2015-2030 under UNO;
to reveal innovations in identifying various kinds of natural and anthropogenic hazards, their
analysis and assessment, indicating ways and methods of administrative solutions that can
provide population dwelling and steady progress of social and economic spheres of Eurasian
continent regions.
We believe “EURASIAN RISK 2019” Conference will contribute to development of innovative
solutions to important problems within analysis, assessment and minimization of natural and
technological risks.
During the conference, the participants will exchange information and experience on these
issues and discuss future plans for close co-operation.
We hope our guests will return to their country with colorful and pleasant impressions about our
country and our city.
With sincere wishes for an effective, successful and productive conference!
On behalf of Organizing Committee,
Prof. Dr. VUGAR ALIYEV
Chair of the Organizing Committee
Director of AMİR Technical Services LLC
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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ОБРАЩЕНИЕ ПРЕДСЕДАТЕЛЯ
Дорогие участники!
Для нас большая честь приветствовать более 200 экспертов из 26 стран мира на Первой
Евразийской конференции «Инновации в минимизации природных и технологических
рисков», 22 – 24 мая 2019г., в Баку, Азербайджан.
События, происходящие как в Азербайджане, так и во всем мире, демонстрируют
углубление глобальных проблем, связанных с необходимостью обеспечения комплексной
безопасности населения и территорий от чрезвычайных ситуаций природного, и
техногенного характера. За последние 25 лет в результате стихийных бедствий и
техногенных аварий в мире погибли более 3 миллионов человек и более 1 миллиарда
пострадали. Безусловно, это требует постоянного изучения и мониторинга источников
риска для населения и территорий, а также поиска эффективных механизмов
минимизации их последствий и управления им.
Мы с благодарностью признаем, что некоторые страны Евразийского континента
накопили значительный опыт работы по минимизацию риска чрезвычайных ситуаций
природного и техногенного характера. Тем не менее, мировое научное сообщество
глубоко озабочено тем, что люди и страны продолжают нести значительные потери от
аварий и бедствий, гибнут и страдают люди, уничтожаются бесценные исторические и
материальные ценности. На наш взгляд, причины такого положения связаны с
недостаточной разъяснительной работой с людьми, отчуждением их от задач
предупреждения и ликвидации чрезвычайных ситуаций, а также низкоэффективной
работой по развитию системы минимизации рисков чрезвычайных ситуаций природного
и антропогенного характера.
Чрезвычайные ситуации остаются одним из серьезнейших препятствий на пути к
достижению устойчивого развития и обеспечения безопасности стран. Поэтому решение
проблемы минимизации опасности бедствий через анализ рисков и инновационного
управления ими с целью создания возможностей для обеспечения и усиления
устойчивого развития стран, надежной защиты населения от чрезвычайных ситуаций
является одной из наиболее важных общественно-государственных задач.
С учетом этого мы обращаемся ко всем ученым и специалистам Евразийских стран
усилить инновационные решения по минимизации природных и техногенных опасностей.
Принимая во внимание наличие органической взаимосвязи между минимизацией
опасности чрезвычайных ситуаций и устойчивым развитием страны, мы считаем важным
вовлечение в работу по анализу, оценке рисков и управлению ими всех заинтересованных
сторон.
Настоящим обращением мы призываем все заинтересованные стороны активно
участвовать в конференции, поделиться опытом и знаниями и, внести вклад в общее дело
устойчивого развития континента.
Основными целями конференции являются:
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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• объединить ученых и специалистов различных отраслей знаний и предоставить им
возможности обмена информацией, идеями и инновационными решениями минимизации
проблем в области природных и техногенных рисков, на Евразийском континенте;
• способствовать передаче знаний о рисках, инноваций и передовых технологиях
минимизации рисков;
• содействовать пониманию и профессиональному взаимодействию ученых,
специалистов и организаций для совершения общего вклада в теорию и практику анализа
рисков и инновативного решения проблем в области рисков, в том числе, в сфере защиты
населения и территорий от чрезвычайных ситуаций природного, техногенного и
антропогенного характера.
• улучшить сотрудничество и взаимопонимание между субъектами энергетической
(нефтегазовой, солнечной и ветровой) промышленности, а также сотрудничество между
энергетической отраслью, НИИ и академическими учреждениями по вопросам
энергетики.
• поддерживать Вызовы третьего тысячелетия и Сендайскую (Япония) рамочную
программу действий ООН по снижению риска бедствий на 2015–2030гг. в качестве
руководящего базового документа, в котором отражены стратегические цели и
приоритетные направления действий, а также ожидаемые результаты.
• выявить инновации в идентификации различного вида опасностей природного и
антропогенного характера, их анализа и оценки, выявление путей и методов принятия
таких управленческих решений, которые бы обеспечили безопасное проживание
населения и устойчивое развитие социально-экономической сферы различных регионов
Евразийского континента.
Выражаем уверенность в том, что наша конференция внесет свой вклад в решение
важных проблем в области оценки, анализа и минимизации природных и техногенных
рисков.
Во время конференции участники обменяются информацией и опытом по этим вопросам
и обсудят планы на будущее для тесного сотрудничества.
Мы надеемся, что наши гости вернутся в свою страну с красочными и приятными
впечатлениями о нашей стране и нашем городе.
С искренними пожеланиями эффективной, успешной и продуктивной конференции!
От имени Организационного Комитета конференции,
Профессор ВУГАР АЛИЕВ
Председатель Организационного Комитета
Директор Компании AMIR Technical Services
LLC
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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AMIR TECHNICAL SERVICES LLC
INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY
AZERBAIJAN NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
REPUBLICAN SEISMIC SURVEY CENTER
AZERBAIJAN NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
INNOVATIONS IN MINIMIZATION
OF NATURAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS
PROGRAM
OF THE FIRST EURASIAN CONFERENCE
“RISK – 2019”
22 – 24 May 2019, Baku, Azerbaijan
Baku – 2019
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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OPENING CEREMONY ЦЕРЕМОНИЯ ОТКРЫТИЯ
Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019
8:00 – 9:00 Registration
9:00 – 10:00 Opening Session. Chairman's welcoming speech
10:00 – 10:15 Professor Motoki
KAZAMA,
JAPAN
Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan
- learned from two Great Earthquake Disasters
for recent 30 years
10:15 – 10:30 Dr. Virgilio
ANSELMO,
ITALY
A modeling process for flood-prone areas and
flood-risk assessment
10:30 – 10:45 Dr. Yana
KRUKHMALEVA,
RUSSIA
Automation of the project and risk
management system on the example of PJSC
GAZPROM international investment projects.
Information security and cyber risks
10:45 – 11:30 Coffee break
11:30 – 11:45 Alexander BARINOV,
RUSSIA
GEOBRUGG technologies and expertise to
strengthen any slopes
11:45 – 12:00 Ramiz MAMMADOV,
AZERBAIJAN
Natural hazards in the mountain regions of the
Azerbaijan Republic and these CIS mapping
12:00 – 12:15 Anatolii PAVLENKO,
UKRAINE
Biosafety electronics
12:15 – 12:30 Sabina KAZIMOVA,
AZERBAIJAN
Modeling of the Earth's Crust of the Greater
Caucasus by Seismic Tomography
12:30 – 12:45 Nikolai MAKHUTOV,
RUSSIA
Risk and Industrial Safety
12:45 – 13:00 Vugar ALIYEV,
AZERBAIJAN
Global Transportation Infrastructure and Risk
of Cascading Effects. Case Study: Azerbaijan
13:00 – 14:30 Lunch
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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14:30 – 16:00, Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019
Session-1: Technological safety
Сессия-1: Технологическая безопасность
1. Vladimir Gurevich
Protection of Electric Equipment against High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse.
Владимир Гуревич
Защита электрооборудования от высотных электромагнитных импульсов.
2. Michail Lukyanchikov, Valery Lesnykh, Alexander Bochkov
Experience in applying of risk-focused approach to corporate control of PJSC
GAZPROM facilities
Михаил Лукъянчиков, Валерий Лесных, Александр Бочков
Опыт применения риск-ориентированного подхода при осуществлении
корпоративного контроля объектов ПАО ГАЗПРОМ.
3. Motoki Kazama
Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan
- learned from two Great Earthquake Disasters for recent 30 years -
Мотоки Казама
Снижение риска стихийных бедствий в Японии - уроки двух больших
землятрасений за последние 30 лет.
4. Sahiba Kalaeva, Vladimir Makarov, Nadejda Markelova, Ramil Kalaev
Obtaining synthetic magnetite and ferromagnetic fluid from industrial waste to purify
water from petroleum products.
Сахиба Калаева, Владимир Макаров, Надежда Маркелова, Рамиль Калаев
Получение синтетического магнетита и магнитной жидкости из отходов
производства для очистки воды от нефтепродуктов.
5. Vinera Bekbaeva, Galina Metaksa
Innovations in minimizing natural and technological risks in the oil industry.
Винера Бекбаева, Галина Метакса
Инновации в минимизации природных и технологических рисков в нефтяной
промышленности.
6. Ulyana Ivanova,Vladimir Moskvichev
The cause-and-effect regularities of anthropogenic accidents.
Ульяна Иванова, Владимир Москвичов
Причинно-следственные закономерности техногенных катастроф.
7. Vladimir Nadein, Rüshdi Safarov, Oleg Zerkal, Natik Seidakhmedov, Igor Fomenko
Assessment and analysis of risks in the reorientation of old industrial areas for urban
planning and recreational purposes (on example of Baku).
Владимир Надеин, Рушди Сафаров, Олег Зеркал, Натик Сеидахмедов, Игорь
Фоменко
Оценка и анализ рисков при переориентации старых промышленных зон на
градостроительные и рекреационные цели (на примере г. Баку).
8. Oksana Hunchenko
Analysis of the main characteristics of industrial risk.
Оксана Гунченко
Анализ основных характеристик промышленного риска.
9. Yury Karin, Natalya Yurkevich, Igor Yeltsov
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Mine wastes: models of mine tailing facilities inferred from geophysical and
geochemical investigations.
Юрий Карин, Наталья Юркевич, Игорь Ельцов
Отходы шахт: модели хвостохранилищ, выведенные из геофизических и
геохимических исследований.
10. Vladimir Malyshev, Larisa Borisoglebskaia
Intellectual innovation system of technological safety for the oil and gas industry.
Владимир Малышев, Лариса Борисоглебская
Интеллектуальная инновационная система технологической безопасности для
нефтегазовой отрасли.
11. Igor Cheshyk, Halina Hutsava, Mikalai Barysevich
Information-psychological protection of the public in nuclear accidents.
Experience of the Republic of Belarus.
Игорь Чещик, Галина Гуцева, Миколай Барышевич
Информационно-психологическая защита населения при ядерных авариях. Опыт
Республики Беларусь.
12. Fakhraddin Gabibov
Development of innovative technologies to minimize the risks during the construction
and operation of structure on unstable soils.
Фахраддин Габибов
Разработка инновационных технологий для минимизации рисков при
строительстве и эксплуатации конструкций на неустойчивых почвах.
13. Palma Orlović-Leko, Irena Ciglenečki-Jusić, Nevenka Mikac, Ivo Galić, Alojzije
Filipović
Environmental risk associated with water in the abandoned mines.
Палма Орлович-Леко, Ирена Чиглинески-Жусич, Невенка Микас, Иво Галич,
Аложзие Филипович
Экологический риск, связанный с водой в заброшенных шахтах.
14. Ivo Galić, Branimir Farkaš, Ivan Soldo
Risk assessment and possible solutions for certain abandoned mines in the Dinarides
area.
Иво Галич, Бранимир Фаркаш, Иван Солдо
Оценка риска и возможные решения для некоторых заброшенных шахт в районе
Динаридес.
15. Youngcheul Kwon, Yudai Kawamura, Hajime Imanishi
Assessment of post-earthquake ground settlement of clayey soils based on consolidation
settlement potential.
Джонг Чеул Квон, Юдаи Кавамура, Хаиме Иманиши
Оценка состояния грунтовых поселений после землетрясения на глинистых почвах
с учетом консолидационного расчетного потенциала.
16. Gennadiy Shmal', Vladimir Nadein, Nikolai Makhutov
Development of safety principles and criteria on offshore hydrocarbon facilities and
infrastructures.
Геннадий Шмаль, Владимир Надеин, Николай Махутов
Разработка принципов и критериев безопасности на морских углеводородных
объектах и инфраструктурах.
17. Nikolai Makhutov, Aleksandr Rybas, Vladimir Nadein
Scientific support of the basis of state policy in the field of industrial safety.
Николай Махутов, Александр Рыбась, Владимир Надеин
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Научное сопровождение основ государственной политики в области
промышленной безопасности.
18. Eugeny Gumennikov, Nikolai Buktukov, Gulzada Mashataeva
Exclusion of the risks of injury in the release of the mountain mass from cleaning blocks
and bunkers.
Евгений Гуменников, Николай Буктуков, Гульзада Машатаева
Исключение рисков травматизма при выпуске горной массы из очистных блоков и
бункеров.
19. Anna Gumenyuk, Inna Nikonorova, Marina Vishnevskaya
Stability and risk in recreational development of the coast of the Cheboksary and
Kuibyshev reservoirs.
Анна Гуменьюк, Инна Никонорова, Марина Вишневская
Устойчивость и риск в рекреационном развитии побережья Чебоксарского и
Куйбышевского водохранилищ.
20. Yana Krukhmaleva
Automation of the project and risk management system on the example of PJSC
GAZPROM International investment projects. The latest software for risk analysis of the
Russian manufacturers. Information security of PJSC GAZPROM.
Яна Крухмалева
Автоматизация системы управления проектами и рисками на примере
международных инвестиционных проектов ГАЗПРОМ. Новейшее программное
обеспечение для анализа рисков Российского производителя. Информационная
безопасность ПАО ГАЗПРОМ.
21. Andrew Botviniev
Russian transport network-bridge between Europe and Asia.
Андрей Ботвиньев
Российская транспортная сеть-мост между Европой и Азией.
22. Nikolay Zapivalov
Risks and uncertainties in the Petroleum Sector.
Nikolai Zapivalov
Риски и неопределенности в нефтяном секторе.
23. Igor Hadjamberdiev, Rustam Tukhvatshin, Ibragimjon Domulajanov
Central Asia old tailings: mutual risk factors.
Игорь Хаджамбердыев, Рустам Тукватшин, Ибрагимджон Домулажанов
Старые отходы Центральной Азии: факторы взаимного риска.
24. Eugeny Telenkov
The experience of Norilsk Nickel: Model of management of technical and production
risks.
Евгений Теленков
Опыт Норильского никеля: Модель управления технико-производственными
рисками.
25. Vugar Aliyev
Deformation of riverbed of Kura river as a factor of emergency situation in oil- and gas-
transport systems.
Вугар Алиев
Деформация русла реки Куры как фактор чрезвычайной ситуации в
нефтегазотранспортных системах.
26. Ayten Akhmedova, Islam Mustafaev
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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The formation of specific effective activity of natural radionuclides in building materials
and products.
Айтен Ахмедова, Ислам Мустафаев
Формирование удельной эффективной активности природных радионуклидов в
строительных материалах и изделиях.
17:00 – 18:30, Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019
Session-2: Natural emergency situations
Сессия-2: Природные чрезвычайные ситуации
1. Daya Shanker
Earthquake risk evaluation in Western Himalaya, India - a scenario report.
Дая Шанкер
Оценка риска землетрясения в Западных Гималаях, Индия – отчет сценарий.
2. Sharpuddin Zaurbekov, Luiza Bekmurzaeva, T Ozdieva
The use of GIS technologies in assessing the exposure of the territory of the Chechen
Republic to dangerous natural processes and phenomena
Шарпуддин Заурбеков, Луиза Бекмурзаева, Оздиева Т.Х Применение ГИС-
технологий при оценке подверженности территории Чеченской Республики
опасным природным процессам и явлениям.
3. Nigora Fayzibaeva
Water resources of Uzbekistan: problems and solutions
Нигора Фейзибаева
Водные ресурсы Узбекистана: проблемы и пути решения.
4. Akhmetkal Medeu, Viktor Blagoveshenskiy, Maulken Askarova, Tamara Gulyayeva,
Alikhan Medeu, Sandugash Ranova
Mudflow Risk Management Experience in Kazakhstan
Ахметкал Медеу, Виктор Благовещенский, Маулкен Аскарова, Тамара Гуляева,
Алихан Медеу, Сандугаш Ранова
Опыт управления селевым риском в Казахстане.
5. Aliakbar Rasouli, Kevin Cheung and Hanieh Mobasher
Highlighting Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Events
Applying a GIS-Oriented Approach Inside the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area
Алиакбар Расули, Кэвин Чэнг, Хание Мобашер
Выделение широко грозовых событий с применением ГИС-ориентированного
подхода в районе Большого Сиднея.
6. Gurban Yetirmishli, Sabina Kazimova
Seismicity of Azerbaijan for the period 2012-2019 yy.
Гурбан Етирмишли, Сабина Казимова
Сейсмичность Азербайджана за период 2012-2019 гг.
7. Adil Aliyev
Mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan: ecological problems and
environmental risk assessment.
Адиль Алиев
Грязевые вулканы Азербайджана: экологические проблемы и
оценка экологических рисков.
8. Jafar Niyazov, Ali Fazilov, Mirzo Saidov
The GIS and remote sensing in the monitoring of debris flow effects in Tajikistan.
Джафар Ниязов, Али Фазилов, Мирзо Саидов
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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ГИС и дистанционное зондирование в мониторинге воздействия селевого потока в
Таджикистане.
9. Larisa Agaeva, Emil Esenov
Issues of assessment and zoning of seismic danger in Turkmenistan.
Лариса Агаева, Эмиль Эсенов
Вопросы оценки и районирования сейсмической опасности в Туркменистане.
10. Avaz Salamov, Vagif Mammadov, Hadiya Khalilova
Formation of sliding processes in the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan and their
threats (case study: the Absheron Peninsula).
Аваз Саламов, Вагиф Мамедов, Хадийя Халилова
Формирование процессов скольжения на территории Азербайджанской
Республики и их угрозы (на примере Апшеронского полуострова).
11. Mikhail Faleev, Nikolai Makhutov, Evgeny Kozlov
Understanding the risks of disaster reduction.
Михаил Фалеев, Николай Махутов, Евгений Козлов
Проблемы понимания рисков снижения стихийных бедствий.
12. Evgeniy Sherzhukov, Dmitriy Morozov
Experience of creating a monitoring system of dangerous hydrological phenomena in the
territory of Krasnodar region.
Евгений Шержуков, Дмитрий Морозов
Опыт создания системы мониторинга опасных гидрологических явлений на
территории Краснодарской области.
13. Merab Gongadze, George Lominadze, George Khomeriki
Natural disaster exodynamic processes and events in Georgia.
Мераб Гонгадзе, Георгий Ломинадзе, Георгий Хомерики
Стихийнные экзодинамические процессы и явления в Грузии.
14. Olga Taseiko, Daria Chernykh
The relative risks for population health in Krasnoyarsk city caused by cold weather.
Ольга Тасейко, Дарья Черных
Относительные риски для здоровья населения в городе Красноярске, вызванные
холодной погодой.
15. Tatiana Kuderina
Atmospheric geochemical risks in strengthening the processes of natural desertification
and anthropogenic land degradation in southern Russia.
Татьяна Кудерина
Атмосферные геохимические риски при усилении процессов природного
опустынивания и антропогенной деградации земель юга России.
16. Kamchibek Kojogulov, Aichurok Toktogulova, Gulnara Kabaeva, Tabaldy Jumaev
About one method of protection from mudflows.
Камчибек Кожогулов, Айчурок Токтогулова, Гулнара Кабаева, Табалды Жумаев
Об одном способе защиты от селевых потоков.
17. Kamchibek Kojogulov, Aichurok Toktogulova, Gulnara Kabaeva, Tabaldy Jumaev
The way to eliminate ice jams on the rivers of Kyrgyzstan.
Камчибек Кожогулов, Айчурок Токтогулова, Гулнара Кабаева, Табалды Жумаев
Способ ликвидации заторов льда на реках Кыргызстана.
18. Emil Bournaski, Ivan Ivanov, Galia Bardarska, Svilen Borisov, Olga Nicheva, Aleksey
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Benderev, Tatiana Orehova, Vladimir Hristov, Petar Gerginov, Neli Hristova, Polia
Dobreva, Ivan Penkov
Scientific program of Republic of Bulgaria for environmental protection and reducing
the risk of negative phenomena and natural disasters.
Эмиль Боурнаский, Иван Иванов, Галия Бардарска, Свилен Борисов, Ольга
Ничева, Алексей Бендерев, Татьяна Орехова, Владимир Христов, Петар Гергинов,
Нелли Христова, Полья Добрева, Иван Пенков
Научная программа Республики Болгария по охране окружающей среды и
снижению риска негативных явлений и стихийных бедствий.
19. Rza Mahmudov, Vugar Aliyev
Global climate change and its impact on hydrometeorological condition in Azerbaijan.
Рза Махмудов, Вугар Алиев
Глобальное изменение климата и его влияние на гидрометеорологическое
состояние в Азербайджане.
20. Emil Bayramov, Ramiz Mammadov, Rafael Bayramov, Saida Aliyeva
Quantitative prediction and mitigation of landslides and erosion risks using GIS and
remote sensing.
Эмиль Байрамов, Рамиз Мамедов, Рафаэль Байрамов, Саида Алиева
Количественное прогнозирование и снижение риска оползней и эрозии с
использованием ГИС и дистанционного зондирования.
21. Ramiz Mammadov
Natural hazards in the mountain regions of the Azerbaijan Republic and these CIS
mapping.
Рамиз Мамедов
Стихийные бедствия в горных районах Азербайджанской Республики и их ГИС
картографировании.
22. Eberhard Gröner, Armin Roduner
Slope stabilization and erosion protection in a single operation.
Эберхард Грёнер, Армин Родунер
Стабилизация склона и защита от эрозии за одну операцию.
23. Corinna Wendeler, Eberhard Gröner, Alexander Barinov, Matthias Denk
Ten years’ experience in flexible debris flow barriers.
Каринна Вэндэлер, Эберхард Грёнер, Александр Баринов, Маттиас Денк
Десять лет опыта в области гибких барьеров для селевого потока.
10:00 – 13:00, Thursday, May 23rd, 2019
Session-3: Complex Safety
Сессия-3: Комплексная безопасность
1. Arkady Granovskiy, Bulat Dzgamuev, Oleg Simakov, Daria Lvova
The use carbon fiber and carbon mesh to increase the seismic resistance of masonry
buildings.
Аркадий Грановский, Булат Дзгамуев, Олег Симаков, Дарья Львова
Использование углеродного волокна и углеродной сети для повышения
сейсмического сопротивления каменных зданий.
2. Irina Malneva
Operational forecasts to minimize the natural and man-made risks of hazardous
geological processes.
Ирина Мальнева
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Оперативные прогнозы для минимизации природных и техногенных рисков
опасных геологических процессов.
3. Anatolii Pavlenko
How to neutralize biopathogenic and technopathogenic radiation on humans
Анатолий Павленко
Как нейтрализовать биопатогенное и технопатогенное излучение на человека.
4. Nigora Talipova
Issues of food security while minimizing natural risks.
Нигора Талипова
Вопросы обеспечения продовольственной безопасности в условиях минимизации
природных рисков.
5. Irina Glinyanova
Holistic Approach to Phytomonitoring in the System of Ecological Safety of Urban
Areas.
Инна Глинянова
Целостный подход к фитомониторингу в системе экологической безопасности
городских территорий.
6. Nadira Mavlyanova
Development of cooperation of NIS countries for mitigation of natural and
technological risk.
Надира Мавлянова
Развитие сотрудничества стран СНГ по снижению природных и техногенных
рисков.
7. Vladimir Moskvichev
Comprehensive assessment of the natural and man-made safety of Siberian regions.
Владимир Москвичов
Комплексная оценка природной и техногенной безопасности регионов Сибири.
8. Bahman Amiri
Caring of the shape of change in our landscape: from hydrological context into
landscape planning one.
Бахман Амири
Забота о форме изменений в нашем ландшафте: от гидрологического контекста до
ландшафтного планирования.
9. Fakhraddin Gabibov, Arzu Zeynalov
Choice of innovative risk management measures at industrial facilities within complex
topography with landslide hazard.
Фахраддин Габибов, Арзу Зейналов
Выбор инновационных мер по управлению рисками на промышленных объектах в
сложной топографии с опасностью оползня.
10. Fakhraddin Gabibov, Aydin Huseynov
The main economic and administrative barriers affecting a high level of risks in the
commercialization of innovations.
Фахраддин Габибов, Айдын Гусейнов
Основные экономические и административные барьеры, влияющие на высокий
уровень рисков при коммерциализации инноваций.
11. Valdemaras Makutėnas. Assessing the impact of environmental tax revenue on
environmental pollution in European countries.
Вальдемарас Макутенас
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Оценка воздействия налога на загрязнение окружающей среды в Европейских
странах.
12. Daiva Makutėnienė
Factors affecting crop insurance: The case of Lithuania
Дайва Макутениене
Факторы, влияющие на страхование урожая: случай Литвы.
13. Irina Rudaya, Boris Anikin
Risks and opportunities of the cross-border e-Commerce development in the context of
the new customs legislation of the Eurasian Customs Union and the Russian Federation.
Ирина Рудая, Борис Аникин
Риски и возможности развития трансграничной электронной торговли в контексте
нового таможенного законодательства Евразийского таможенного союза и
Российской Федерации.
14. Anna Fedotova, Lyudmila Yakovleva, Elena Loktionova
The environmental component of the integrated security of the Caspian macro-region.
Анна Федотова, Людмила Яковлева, Елена Локтионова
Экологическая составляющая комплексной безопасности Каспийского
макрорегиона.
15. Vadim Plyushchikov, Vladimir Avdotin, Vladislav Plyushchikov, Mirashraf Fatiev
The influence of the combined effect of negative factors: heavy metals, pesticides,
radionuclides, etc. - in the soils of urban agglomerations to ensure their key functions
and ecosystem services.
Вадим Плющиков, Владимир Авдотьин, Владислав Плющиков, Мирашраф
Фатиев
Влияние комбинированного воздействия негативных факторов: тяжелых
металлов, пестицидов, радионуклидов и т. д. - на почвы городских агломераций
для обеспечения их основных функций и экосистемных услуг.
16. Irena Ciglenečki, Milan Čanković, Jelena Dautović, Marija Marguš, Ivica Janeković
Changes in the environment: Importance of long-term monitoring.
Ирена Чиглинески, Милан Чанкович, Елена Даутович, Мария Маргус, Ивица
Джанекович
Изменения в окружающей среде: важность долгосрочного мониторинга.
17. Yuliia Kvach
Risk management at the piloting stage.
Юлия Квач
Управление рисками на этапе пилотирования.
18. Vladimir Avdotin, Aleksandr Kononov, Vadim Plyushchikov, Julia Avdotina, Vladislav
Plyushchikov
On the causes and consequences of cognitive distortions in assessing the significance
and role of civilization factors in risk and safety management.
Владимир Авдотьин, Александр Кононов, Вадим Плющиков, Юлия Авдотьина,
Владислав Плющиков
О причинах и последствиях когнитивных нарушений в оценке значимости и роли
цивилизационных факторов в управлении рисками и безопасностью.
19. Givi Gavardashvili
Disasters resilience of infrastructure to natural and human-caused hazards.
Гиви Гавардашвили
Устойчивость инфраструктуры к стихийным бедствиям и антропогенным
воздействиям.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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20. Vesna Tunguz, Ljiljana Nesic, Otilija Miseckaite
Zalomka-underground stream and Eastern Hercegovina soils.
Весна Тунгуз, Льйиляна Неич, Отилижа Мисекаите
Заломка - подземный ручей и почвы Восточной Герцеговины.
21. Vladimir Belozerov, Vyacheslav Vorotilov, Pavel Obukhov
Adaptation of the method of rapid analysis of liquid packaged products for recognition
of counterfeit alcohol.
Владимир Белозеров, Вячеслав Воротилов, Павел Обухов
Адаптация метода экспресс-анализа жидких упакованных продуктов для
распознавания контрафактного алкоголя.
22. Lia Matchavariani, Giorgi Metreveli, Zaza Gulashvili
Integrate management of water reservoirs problems.
Лия Мачавариани, Георгий Метревели, Заза Гулашвили
Комплексное управление проблемами водохранилищ.
23. Ramiz Mammadov, Khosiyat Ismatova, Natavan Jafarova
Experience of using space technologies to minimize the risk of natural and man-made
disasters in Azerbaijan.
Рамиз Мамедов, Хосият Исматова, Натаван Джафарова
Опыт применения космических технологий для минимизации риска природных
и техногенных катастроф в Азербайджане.
24. Seymur Mammadov, Emil Gafarov
About the condition of physical stability of the Mingechevir dam.
Сеймур Мамедов, Эмиль Гафаров
О состоянии физической устойчивости Мингечевирской плотины.
25. Vugar Aliyev
Water supply and global critical infrastructure of Azerbaijan: Interdepencies and
interactions.
Вугар Алиев
Водоснабжение и глобальная критическая инфраструктура Азербайджана:
взаимозависимости и взаимодействия.
26. Aliona Tihon The global problem of natural and man-made disasters.
Алёна Тихон
Глобальная проблема природных и техногенных катастроф.
27. Ahmed Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, Denys Dutykh
Nonlinear deformation and run-up of tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical
simulations and analytical predictions.
14:30 – 18:00, Thursday, May 23rd, 2019
Session-4: Modeling of Processes, Assessment and Minimization of Risks
Сессия-4: Моделирование процессов, оценка и минимизация рисков
1. Valery Lesnykh, Tatiana Timofeeva
Classification and modeling of intersystem accidents for infrastructure-complex areas.
Валерий Лесных, Татьяна Тимофеева
Классификация и моделирование межсистемных аварий для инфраструктурно-
сложных территорий.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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2. Elena Patrusheva, Elena Lifanova
Innovation projects risks monitoring when achieving company’s strategic targets.
Елена Патрушева, Елена Лифанова
Мониторинг рисков инновационных проектов при достижении стратегических
целей компании.
3. Yeraly Shokbarov
Assessment of seismic risk in Almaty.
Ералы Шокбаров
Оценка сейсмического риска в Алматы.
4. Mikhail Lebedev, Kirill Romanevich
Natural and industrial risk assessment and forecasting at the project phase of the Second
Severo-Muysky Tunnel.
Михаил Лебедев, Кирилл Романевич
Оценка и прогнозирование природных и промышленных рисков на этапе
реализации проекта второго Северо-Муйского тоннеля.
5. Mikhail Lebedev, Vladimir Maslak, Konstantin Bezrodny, Yury Isaev
Natural and industrial risks minimization in the course of operation of Sochi Olympic
Tunnels.
Михаил Лебедев, Владимир Маслак, Константин Безродный, Юрий Исаев
Минимизация природных и промышленных рисков при эксплуатации
Олимпийских тоннелей в Сочи.
6. Jafar Niyazov, Mirzo Saidov, Majid Gulayozov, Mustafo Safarov, Sukhbatullo Saidov
The challenges of sustainable solution for reducing risk levels in the Sarez lake area,
Tajikistan.
Джафар Ниязов, Мирзо Саидов, Маджид Гулаязов, Мустафо Сафаров, Сухбатулло
Саидов
Проблема устойчивого решения для снижения уровней риска в районе Сарезского
озера, Таджикистан.
7. Fakhraddin Gabibov, Yerali Shokbarov, Huseyn Bayat
On the introduction of technical innovations to reduce risk in development of territories
with high seismicity.
Фахраддин Габибов, Ералы Шокбаров, Гусейн Баят
О внедрении технических инноваций для снижения рисков при освоении
территорий с повышенной сейсмичностью.
8. Tetiana Tkachenko, Olena Voloshkina
“Green structures” as a tool for reducing the environmental risks of urban ecosystems.
Тетиана Ткаченко, Олёна Волошкина
«Зеленые структуры» как инструмент снижения экологических рисков городских
экосистем.
9. Virgilio Anselmo
A modeling process for flood-prone areas and flood-risk assessment.
Виргилио Анселмо
Процесс моделирования для подверженных наводнениям территорий и оценка
риска наводнений.
10. Olga Herasimenko, Michael Lazarenko
Evaluation of magnitudes and parameters of earthquake earth in quasireal time scale by
neural network modeling.
Ольга Герасименко, Михаил Лазаренко
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Оценка магнитуд и параметров землетрясения Земли в квазиреальном масштабе
времени с помощью моделирования нейронной сети.
11. Nikolay Petrov, Inna Nikonorova, Nadezhda Prokopyeva
Compliance of the computational model with the components of the natural-man-made
system is the most important condition for risk minimizing.
Николай Петров, Инна Никонорова, Надежда Прокофьева
Соответствие вычислительной модели компонентам природно-антропогенной
системы является важнейшим условием минимизации природных и техногенных
рисков.
12. Karina Alenina, Nikolay Akatov, Dmitriy Bryukhanov
Modeling of an enterprise management competence-based capacity development in the
context of a modern risk management paradigm.
Карина Алёнина, Николай Акатов, Дмитрий Брюханов
Моделирование развития потенциала управления предприятием на основе
современной парадигмы управления рисками.
13. Dmitry Abrosimov, Valery Belozerov, Maxim Filimonov
Model of split systems for fire and explosion protection of apartments
of multi-storey buildings and individual houses.
Дмитрий Абросимов, Валерий Белозеров, Максим Филимонов
Модель сплит систем противопожарной и взрывобезопасности квартир
многоэтажных домов и индивидуальных домов.
14. Rumella Jafarova
Risk assessment methods for a construction company.
Румелла Джафарова
Методы оценки рисков для строительной компании.
15. Gurban Yetirmishli, Sabina Kazimova
Modeling of the Earth’s crust of the Greater Caucasus by seismic tomography.
Гурбан Етирмишли, Сабина Казимова
Моделирование земной коры Большого Кавказа методом сейсмической
томографии.
16. Leszek Kuchar
Risk estimation of high river flows for future climate.
Лесзек Кучар
Оценка риска высоких речных потоков для будущего климата.
17. Samira Akbarova
Minimization of fire risks in ventilated facade systems of buildings.
Самира Акбарова
Минимизация пожароопасности в вентилируемых фасадных системах зданий.
18. Shakir Mamedov, Tukezban Hasanova, Tural Mammedli
Experimental research of dynamic parameters of multi-storey buildings at vibrating
seismic loadings.
Шакир Мамедов, Тукезбан Гасанова, Турал Маммедли
Экспериментальное исследование динамических параметров многоэтажных зданий
при вибрационных сейсмических нагрузках.
19. Tamaz Chelidze, Nodar Varamashvili, Zurab Chelidze, Tengiz Kiria, Nugzar Ghlonti,
Jemal Kiria
Landslide monitoring and early warning multifunctional system.
Тамаз Челидзе, Нодар Варамашвили, Зураб Челидзе, Тенгиз Кириа, Нугзар Глонти,
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Джемал Кириа
Многофункциональная система мониторинга оползней и раннего предупреждения.
20. Ekaterina Buldakova, Vyacheslav Zaikanov, Tatiana Minakova
Geo-environmental aspects of safe urban planning.
Екатерина Булдакова, Вячеслав Заиканов, Татьяна Минакова
Геоэкологические аспекты планирования безопасных городов.
21. Sabina Magerramova
On reducing the safety risks of water facilities.
Сабина Магеррамова
О снижении рисков безопасности водохозяйственных объектов.
22. Sabina Magerramova
Modeling of emergency situations at water facilities.
Сабина Магеррамова
Моделирование аварийных ситуаций на водохозяйственных объектах.
Friday, May 24, 2019. Cultural Programme
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Technological safety
Технологическая безопасность
Protection of Electric Equipment against High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse
Vladimir Gurevich
Central Electric Laboratory, Israel Electric Corp., Haifa 31000, POB 10, Israel
Some 20-30 years ago the concept of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) resulting
from the high-altitude (30 – 400 km) explosion of a nuclear charge, was only mentioned in the
brochures on civil defense. Military men were well informed about this effect of nuclear
explosion; however, information on this topic was strictly confidential. It was pretty sound at
that time, considering technical obstructions and expenses related to obtaining of this
information. However, this resulted in the fact that until recently civil specialists working in
different fields of engineering science had no idea (and some of them are not aware even now)
about this phenomenon and the danger that it may pose.
Meanwhile, modern trends of engineering development, resulting in wide-spread use of
microelectronics, microprocessors, PCs, quick improvement of microprocessors' capacity
accompanied by sharp increase of micro-transistors count per a unit of volume, reduction of
operation voltage and insulation level between internal elements and the layers in a crystal, lead
to sharp increase of susceptibility of modern equipment to HEMP and stimulated interest of
army men to use HEMP as a self-sufficient and very efficient type of weapon. Now it becomes
clear that HEMP is an ideal non-lethal weapon capable to destroy the infrastructure of the
enemy almost completely without hecatomb, if a nuclear weapon is exploded at high altitude.
This has inspired the military men so much that they ordered development of purely
electromagnetic weapon was underway, where powerful electromagnetic emission affecting
modern microelectronic and microprocessor-based systems is generated by non-nuclear source.
Electromagnetic bombs, shells, grenades and missiles with electromagnetic war-heads, mobile
units on wheel or track chassis that generate powerful directed electromagnetic radiation capable
to destroy electronic equipment from large distances are not science fiction anymore, but
contemporary realities.
Unfortunately, these realities are still not broadly addressed by specialists of many field of
engineering science, particularly those in the field of electric energy industry. Indeed, electric
energy is the foundation of a country's infrastructure, without which neither water supply system
nor communication or any other vital system can operate.
More than 400 pages on the phenomenon, known to military specialist only described in the new
book from De Gruyter publishing house: “Protection of Electric Equipment. Good Practices for
Preventing High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse Impacts”, 2019.
The difference of this book from all previous publications on this topic is that it describes
practical technical engineering solutions for protection against electromagnetic pulse, and not
theoretical reasoning, as it has been until now.
This book is a first practical guide for engineers and technicians about electromagnetic pulse
that has not yet been on the book market.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Experience in applying of risk-focused approach to corporate control of PJSC
GAZPROM facilities
Michail Lukyanchikov1, Valery Lesnykh1, Alexander Bochkov1, 1 LLC GAZPROM Gaznadzor, Moscow, Novocheremuchkiskaya Str.65, Russian Federation
In recent years in the Russian Federation the risk – focused approach actively applies into
activity of the controlling organizations. This approach represents a method of the organization
and implementation of corporate control of industrial objects at which the choice of intensity
(forms, durations, frequency) holding actions for control, actions for prevention of derogations
from mandatory requirements is defined by reference of activity of the controlled organizations
and the industrial objects used by them at implementation of such activity to a certain risk
category or a certain class (category) of danger. For optimum use of the human, material and
financial resources involved at implementation of control actions, and increases in effectiveness
of activity of LLC “GAZPROM gaznadzor” since 2018 are used by risk - focused approach
when planning inspection control activity on industrial objects of PJSC GAZPROM. Planning of
actions is carried out on the basis of forecasting of undercontol risk subjects of check by
generalization, the analysis and assessment of retrospective data on accidents, incidents and
incidents on objects of check, information on quantity and effectiveness of inspection control
actions. This type of risk is understood as the indicator of subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM
characterizing uncertainty degree at assessment of its importance for corporate control,
infrastructure and life support of fuel and energy complex as a part of which it functions. The
undercontrol risk defines a rank of structural division of subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM in the
ordered list and is used for formation of the plan of control inspection actions. Methods of the
multicriteria theory of usefulness are the basis for an algorithm of assessment of undercontrol
risk. The risk size of structural division of PJSC GAZPROM depends on category of consumers
(including foreign) and topology of their placement in the region which functioning is
influenced by decline in production of objects of PJSC GAZPROM, criticalities of the ranged
structural division of subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM, "quality of the environment" in which the
ranged structural division of subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM, vulnerabilities (to sanctions of the
public supervisory authorities and body of corporate control) the ranged structural division of
subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM and also from correction and weight factors functions. In the
report examples of assessment of undercontrol risk and results of ranging of subjects of control
inspection activity are given.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan - learned from two Great
Earthquake Disasters for recent 30 years
Motoki Kazama Tohoku University, 980-8579, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan
On May 1st in 2019, the name of an era in Japan changed from Heisei to Reiwa. Heisei continued for
about 30 years from 1989. For these 30 years, Japan experienced two great earthquake disasters. One is
Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster, and the other is Great East Japan earthquake disaster. In this
lecture, based on these experiences, it is introduced what is the most important for earthquake disaster
risk reduction.
Inland type M7.3 earthquake occurred in January 17th at 5:43 in early morning, 1995. The earthquake
occurred just below the modern city and caused serious damage to human life and urban infrastructure,
such as traffic facilities and life lines. Over 6000 people was died by collapse of the residential house and
buildings caused by extremely large seismic motion. Unfortunately, the Japanese government failed to
respond to the initial response, because there were few strong motion stations, it was not possible to
immediately grasp what happened at a location 500 km away from Tokyo. This earthquake led to the
development of strong motion observation networks located approximately 20 km apart.
The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, offshore type earthquake with extreme large
magnitude 9.0, occurred in March, 2011. Great East Japan Earthquake disaster brought by this
earthquake inflicted catastrophic damage on Japan, particularly over a wide region in east Japan.
According to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, the dead person reaches 19,667 including
earthquake disaster-related death [1]. Economic loss estimated by Japanese government was 236 billion
dollars. Kazama and Noda [2] summarized damage statistics of the earthquake. The main cause of many
deaths is the tsunami. Japan had past tsunami experiences, but it has not been successfully transmitted to
the generation after the generation.
From the Although 8 years have passed since then, rehabilitation work is still ongoing in the pollution
area of the nuclear power plant accident. This is almost certainly because current de-sign standards and
codes, many of which are based on experience, are able to evaluate effectively those phenomena that
occur within the limits of pre-assumed conditions but will generally be of no help in the case of
phenomena that occur outside such assumed conditions.
From the experiences of the two earthquake disasters, here, I would like to point out the following two
important points as a necessary preparation in advance for the government to do.
(1) Risk awareness: Correctly understand the source of disaster. It is also necessary to aware that
unexpected disasters may occur. Don't neglect that prior preparation.
(2) Disaster information: In the event of a disaster, it is necessary to establish in advance a system for
obtaining a lot of correct information quickly.
REFERENCES
[1] Fire and Disaster Management Agency of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and
Communications, http://www.fdma.go.jp/bn/higaihou/pdf/jishin/158.pdf, (In Japanese).
[2] M. Kazama and T. Noda: Damage statistics (Summary of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of
Tohoku Earthquake damage), Soils and Foundations, Vol. 52, No.5, 2012, pp.780-792.
doi.org/10.1016/j.sandf.2012.11.003 .
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Obtaining synthetic magnetite and ferromagnetic fluid from industrial waste to
purify water from petroleum products
Sahiba Kalaeva, Vladimir Makarov, Nadejda Markelova, Ramil Kalaev Yaroslavl State Technical University, 150023 Yaroslavl, Russia
Magnetite is the most popular magnetically soft ferromagnetic material. However, due to its
intensive use in various areas, the reserves of natural magnetite found in erupted rock are on the
decline at an accelerated rate, especially in foreign regions. Therefore, it is very important to
study the possibility of obtaining magnetite from iron-containing industrial waste.
We obtained synthetic magnetite in various ways:
1. chemical condensation with waste containing Fe3+ and waste containing Fe2+;
2. electrochemical process, when the main process at the anode is the reaction of dissolution of
iron waste (an electrode made out of scraps or iron filings);
3. high temperature recovery of iron-containing industrial waste (galvanic sludge).
The magnetite obtained by these three methods was used to obtain ferromagnetic fluids (FF)
which are a suspension of nano-dispersed particles of a magnetic material (magnetite) of about
5-100 nm stabilized in the carrier liquid. FF could have quite a wide range of applications;
however, its use is limited by its very high cost (about $1,000 per liter) because the dispersed
phase of FF (magnetite) is made of reactive materials. Therefore, the synthesis of magnetite
from waste that already exists in larger quantities would not only reduce the anthropogenic
impact on the environment but also the cost of ferromagnetic fluid, thus expanding its scope of
application.
The obtained ferromagnetic fluids were used to remove petroleum products from the water
surface.
There is a method of water purification from petroleum products using ferromagnetic fluids
which cleans the water from the petroleum products much better. With this method, FF is
sprayed through special spray devices over an oil film (OF), and the "magnetized" petroleum
products are collected with an electromagnetic device. For this purpose, kerosene-based FF is
more suitable. Such treatment technology requires to use large amounts of ferromagnetic fluid.
The high cost of industrial ferromagnetic fluids made from "clean" raw materials is one of the
factors impeding wide spread of the environmental technology mentioned above. It is
economically feasible to replace the ferromagnetic fluid synthesized from the "clean" raw
materials with a similar material obtained from the recycling of harmful industrial waste.
The results of the study showed that the most appropriate treatment parameters with an OF layer
up to 10 mm thick are: FF:OF ratio = 1:7, wait time after spraying FF – 5-7 minutes, drum
rotation speed with permanent magnets to collect "magnetized": OF – 30 rpm. The treatment
efficiency is 90-96%. The residual concentration of OF in water is no more than 8-10 mg/dm3
compared to the existing industrial oil separators – 50-70 mg/dm3, and flotators – 20-30
mg/dm3.
Thus, we found a source of magnetite, which is large iron-containing waste. We developed the
technology of obtaining cheap ferromagnetic fluids, and this technology expands the ways to
use them in areas that require a lot of them; for example, to treat water from oil products.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Innovations in minimizing natural and technological risks in the oil industry.
Vinera Bekbaeva1, Galina Metaksa2
1Eurasian Agrarian College, 050000, Almaty, Kazakhstan 2Institute of Mining. D.A. Kunaev, 050000, Almaty, Kazakhstan
The paper provides a rationale for the restoration of small-scale polluted land. A method for
their recultivation using water and activated magnetic quartz is proposed.
The most important task of environmental protection in the development of oil fields is the
cleaning and disposal of industrial waste, which not only pollutes the soil, removes vast
territories with their fauna and flora from the natural state, but also pollutes the ground and
surface waters. All this has a detrimental effect on the health of people living in this region and
does not contribute to the sustainable development of our society.
The total land area in the region, taken out of circulation as a result of pollution is 3.8 thousand
hectares. Production waste resulting from the development of oil and gas fields and the storage
and transportation of hydrocarbons has a great influence on the state of land resources. Oil
polluted land in the Atyrau region, where the studied OGDU is located “Dossormunaygas”, at
the end of 2014, there were 3,844,576 hectares, of which by the end of 2015 only 261.94
hectares were reclaimed. According to available data, the depth of petrochemical soil pollution
at fields varies from a few centimeters to several meters. On the polluted lands, soil salinization
occurs, litters form, the process of desertification develops [1, 2].
Soil contamination by oil, in addition to its direct impact, can lead to excessive accumulation in
soils of heavy metals contained in oil - zinc, copper, lead, etc.
To achieve this goal in the work solved the following tasks:
- analysis of the current state of the environment in the region and existing methods for
reducing the harmful effects of oil producing industries on the environment;
- study of the capabilities and properties of magnetic powder for cleaning oil waste (sludge
collectors, oil contaminated soils, oil spills).
Developed theoretical basis for the treatment of small-scale contamination:
- the catalytic activity of water with respect to the quartz-containing magnetic powder linearly
depends on its concentration;
- the concentration ratio of the magnetic adsorbent and the spilled oil in a ratio of 1: 10.
The practical significance of the work is as follows:
- for small-scale pollution, an energy-saving method for the elimination of pollution using
magnetic quartz has been proposed;
- The results of research on the development of proposals and methods to reduce the negative
impact of oil production waste on the environment, presented in the thesis, can be practically
applied under production conditions.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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The cause-and-effect regularities of anthropogenic accidents
Ulyana Ivanova1,2,Vladimir Moskvichev1,2
1Institute of computational technologies SB RAS,660049, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
2Siberian Federal University,660041, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Analysis of the retrospective for natural and anthropogenic emergencies allows us to identify
the main groups of risks specific to certain territorial entities and subjects of the Russian
Federation. On this basis, the analysis of territorial development risks is carried out with the
identification of hazard factors and sources, quantitative values of emerging and regulatory risk
levels. This statement of research for cause-and-effect relations of risks formation is considered
on the example of municipalities of Krasnoyarsk territory.
In accordance with the action Plan for the prevention and elimination of emergency situations
of natural and anthropogenic of the Krasnoyarsk territory, approved 22.02.2019 year, on the
result the violation of technological processes in the production activities on the objects of the
technosphere and adverse hydrometeorological and heliogeophysical processes 32 hazardous
factors of emergency may occur (19 anthropogenic , 10 natural and 13 biologo-social). In this
situation, the Krasnoyarsk territory is considered as an unstable social-natural-technogenic (S-
N-T) system. In the study for the main sources of anthropogenic emergencies, a cause-and-
effect complex conditioned at the large number of factors of random nature is distinguished,
that determines the anthropogenic emergencies as probabilistic events.
The paper presents the results for systematization and graphical-probabilistic representation of
sources and factors that cause accidents and anthropogenic disasters in a specific territory. The
graphical-probabilistic approach involves the use of the methodologies of failure trees and
events, that allows to identify regularity of anthropogenic emergencies, to establish the causes
or set of causes for their occurrence, and to give quantify assessments the probability of events.
The determination of probabilities on the main sources of anthropogenic emergencies will
allow to unify the methodology of risk assessment and improve the management of territorial
S-N-T systems.
The event First Eurasian Conference "Innovations in minimization of natural and technological
risks" was funded by Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
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Assessment and analysis of risks in the reorientation of old industrial areas for
urban planning and recreational purposes (on example of Baku)
Vladimir Nadein1, Rüshdi Safarov2, Oleg Zerkal1, Natik Seidakhmedov2, Igor Fomenko1 1LLC « Oil and Gas Safety – Energodiagnostika"», 115162, Moscow, Russia 2Azerbaijan State Scientific – Research Institute of Labour Protection and Safety, Baku, Azerbaijan
Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, is a modern, dynamically developing metropolis located in the southern
part of the Absheron Peninsula. At the same time, in the region of the Absheron Peninsula and in the
adjacent water area of the Caspian Sea, there are situated richest oil and gas fields, which have been
developed for more than 150 years, being one of the oldest oil and gas producing regions in the world. At
present, necessity to give a "second wind" to the old-industrial areas, using them for urban planning and
recreational purposes, has become acute. A constraining factor for the implementation of these projects is
the need to evaluate and analyze the current state of various hazardous man-made facilities, including
decommissioned wells, which were mothballed or eliminated in different years using various
technologies, some of which cannot be considered as perfect at present. Considering that after
completion of exploitation of oil deposits, up to 60-70% of under-recovered oil and up to 10-20% of gas
can remain in them, the hazard assessment of such kind of technogenic objects is an important
component of the analysis and management of risks (minimization) in the development of old industrial
areas.
At present, in spite of the measures taken, some of the previously liquidated and mothballed wells may
come to emergency condition. During the time that has passed after conservation and liquidation of wells
has been completed, cement bridges are destroyed, corrosion of the columns and wellhead equipment
develops, losing its tightness, which can be accompanied by the recovery of oil and gas exit paths or
under conditions of natural increase in gas pressure behind the casing and annular space - the formation
of open fountains. To meet the challenges of ensuring the safe involvement of the old industrial areas in
the economy, specialists from the Azerbaijan State Scientific – Research Institute of Labour Protection
and Safety, together with specialists from LLC OGS-Energodiagnostika and Geological Faculty of
Moscow State University, proposed an approach to assessing the risk of decommissioned oil and gas
production facilities in areas of proposed development including:
- documentary, retrospective audit of facilities;
- current audit of facilities, including mapping, inventory and assessment of the technical and eco-
geological state of the territory, state of the previously abandoned and suspended wells at the time of the
survey;
- engineering-geological and eco-geological surveys at the sites of the planned development,
supplemented by further geological-geophysical studies of the current state of deep parts of the
geological section, as well as monitoring the deformation processes on the surface and development, if
necessary, of a program for re-elimination / conservation of wells and additional cleaning of the territory.
Obtained data on risk factors (technological, geological, environmental) will further ensure the safe
urban planning and recreational development of old industrial areas based on risk management
(minimization).
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
34
Analysis of the main characteristics of industrial risk
Oksana Hunchenko1
1Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, 03037, Kyiv, Ukraine
Any practical, including industrial, human activity is potentially dangerous, that is, it is
impossible to achieve absolute security in any of its types. Based on this thesis in western
countries, the basis of the life-safety methodology, which is part of the protection of labor, is
based on the concept of acceptable risk. The concept of "risk" has a long history of use as a
legal category. But due to the rapid development of industrial production and the need to justify
various aspects of military activity, this concept has become more widespread in other sectors.
Usually, risk is associated with a manifestation of uncertainty and signs of danger.
Different risk theories associated with the development of a market economy, such as
"classical" and "neoclassical", have become important. They helped in determining the risk of
the possibility of transferring hazard characteristics into a category of measured category. In
the manufacturing sphere, the risk is the probability of an accident occurring taking into account
the damage inflicted on human health and its severity.
In our time attention is drawn to the fact that every risk is inherent in such a feature as
uncertainty. That is, this or that unwanted event or unfavorable state or "failure" of the
equipment or a false human reaction in the production environment due to harmful and
dangerous factors. Consequently, "risk" is a quantitative measure of danger, which is
emphasized by the expression "degree of risk". Risk is also a measure of danger, which
simultaneously indicates both the possibility of causing damage, and its magnitude.
All existing causes of occupational injuries and diseases are divided into the following groups:
technical; organizational; psychophysiological. All the causes of accidents can be specified
depending on harmful and dangerous production factors action. The most suitable for technical
branches is the classification according to the effect of these factors to the human body.
In the protection of labor there are such concepts as "dangerous", "critical" and "emergency"
situations for classification of the level of danger, therefore it can be argued that their formation
is a consequence of the interaction of certain risk factors that arise in the relevant sources. At
the same time, each undesirable event occurs in relation to the object of risk - a person.
According to the effect on a person there are individual, group, technical, environmental,
economic and social risks, each of which is determined by certain sources and factors. The task
of employers is optimizing the funds that can be used for occupational safety issues. For a
situation of limited funds, this is the achievement of the highest level of production safety and
the use of best safety practices.
Research into the risk of production does not make it through the development of technology
and equipment due to lack of a basic methodology. And use of various methods and means for
production risk assessing leads to incorrect indicators or to inappropriate conclusions, which
are base for making managerial decisions, both in the design and construction of technologies
and equipment, and during their operation.
Consequently, theoretical studies of industrial risk factors should be based on the achievements
obtained in the field of not only "technical" systems reliability, but also on understanding of the
impact of psycho-physiological features human-operator on the risk of injury. This will improve
the methodological and engineering bases of the risk-oriented approach for creating safe
working conditions at design stage of production processes.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
35
Mine wastes: models of mine tailing facilities inferred from geophysical and
geochemical investigations
Yury Karin1, Natalya Yurkevich 1,2, Igor Yeltsov1,2
1Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics of Siberian Branch of RAS
2Novosibirsk State Technical University
The topicality of our study of sulfide containing mine wastes is determined by their negative
impact on the environment due to the formation and spreading of highly mineralized acidic
drainage solution, causing soil and air pollution. Besides, concentrations of rare-scattered
(dispersed) elements, non-ferrous and precious metals, often exceeding cur-off grades in modern
ores, allow ranking such tailings as " technogenic deposit " (TD).
The storage capacity of potential TDs in Russia reaches cumulatively several billion tons
(according to the 2016 State Statistics Service (Goskomstat) report). By comparison with
advanced industrial countries implementing programs for the integrated use of resources and
widely introducing low-waste technologies, such problems dealt with in Russia are mostly
concerned with the development of methods for technogenic facilities monitoring, vital for to
implementation of the programs for recycling of industrial minerals, safe disposal of toxic
mining waste, and reclamation of disturbed lands.
Application of electric prospecting methods allows optimizing the system of observations of
geochemical behavior of mine tailings and dumps using reduced number of samples; delineation
of the oxidation zone; determining the drainage routes of solutions; estimating the volume of
useful components. Therefore, developing methodology for comprehensive geological and
geophysical monitoring, including appropriate electrical resistivity data interpretation techniques
and taking into account the available a priori geological information has become a matter of
priority.
This study aimed to build volumetric models of mine tailings areas based on the case study of
four objects in the Kemerovo region (Salair, Ursk, Belovo) using geophysical and geochemical
methods. The resulting integrated research methodology is applicable to investigations of mine
tailings, implemented as a systematic sequence of the following actions: mapping and
delineating area boundaries of the studied object based on electromagnetic frequency sounding
method; identification of the lowest-resistivity areas for emplacement of pits and
microelectrochemistry profiles; geochemical sampling of pits, to obtain a relationship the
between resistivity and chemical composition of wastes; deployment of electrical resistivity
tomography (ERT) profiles; identification of acid mine drainage migration routes and estimation
of the maximum dam storage capacity; statistical analysis and data interpretation; geological and
geophysical modeling of technogenic bodies. The developed method allowed to assess
variability of the geochemical zonality, to identify migration routes of toxic solutions, and to
determine concentrations of high-profile substances having promising prospects of their
reclamation. Thus, the volumes of precious and potentially toxic elements in gold mine tailings
amounted to (average values, tons): 9100 As, 4300 Cu, 1900 Zn, 10 Ag, 1.2 Au. Of which, the
concentrations of arsenic (Class 1 hazard element) estimated at 9100 tons alone is liable for the
highly negative environmental impact from the tailing dump facilities located within the village
area harming thereby the immediate vicinity of the residential area. The obtained results indicate
that the levels of useful components (Zn, Cu, Ag, Au, Sn) contained in the studied objects are
comparable to ore concentrations. Their production could significantly offset the cost of
elimination of the environmental damage to the affected area. It would be therefore wise to
develop recommendations for the extraction of minor metals and reclamation of the disturbed
areas.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
36
Intellectual innovation system of technological safety for the oil and gas industry
Vladimir Malyshev1, Larisa Borisoglebskaia1
1Orel State University, 302026, Orel, Russia
Results of the analysis of the dynamics of man-made risks in oil and gas sector shows, that
only in the last ten years, the economic costs of accidents has increased more than 2 times.
According to published data, the annual rate of the oil and gas field occurs around 20 000
serious accidents involving hazardous air pollution of natural water bodies and territories. To
date, the "corrosive defects" accounted for 31% of the total number of failures on the main
pipelines Russia Accidents involving pipelines, especially underwater, characterized by
considerable economic and environmental losses. According to the JSC "Gazprom" in urgent
need of examination of at least 30% of all the exploited pipes. Depreciation of fixed assets of
trunk pipelines, which is estimated at 56% and the average age of gas pipelines exceeding 24
years, adversely affect the reliability of their operation. Accidents at oil and gas facilities occur
not only in Russia, but also in many industrialized countries.
All this, in the opinion of US experts, forces us to accept the thought of the inevitability of a
certain number of accidents. To date, the oil and gas industry there is acceptable for practical
use systems which would allow for a specific object to evaluate the level of technological
safety, identify and justify the list of activities that allow the transition from the existing level
of safety to normability. The current state of science and technology make it possible to use an
innovative approach to ensuring technological safety.
The approach is to transfer a maximum of functions and, accordingly, the risk of system
software and hardware systems. Structurally innovative technological safety system consists of
two subsystems: the hardware and software. In turn, the hardware is divided into information
subsystem sensors, a communications subsystem and a processing subsystem and display
information.
The information sensor subsystem consists of a set of sensors whose composition is
determined by the complexity of the problem being solved.
The communication subsystem is designed to transfer data from sensors to the processing and
display subsystem. The information processing and display subsystem is intended for
receiving sensor data, converting it into a regulatory form, processing information, deciding on
the current level of technological safety of the test object, choosing an algorithm for reducing
the level of danger, if any, and issuing recommendations for taking necessary measures. The
basis of the subsystem is software containing software modules. Information processing is
performed fully automatically.
As a result of the state of the object of control of technological safety systems based on the
input data is detected and the identification of the situation, exceeding the level of security
events generated algorithm to eliminate it at a constant tracking of the current state of the
object. The very innovative technological safety system can be implemented in two ways:
standard and intelligent. Intellectually embodiment, the system operates completely
independently, regardless of the complexity of the emergency and the type of control object. In
both cases, the staff only needs to follow the recommendations issued by the system.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
37
Information-psychological protection of the public in nuclear accidents.
Experience of the Republic of Belarus.
Igor Cheshyk1, Halina Hutsava1, Mikalai Barysevich2 1
Institute of Radiobiology of NAS of Belarus, 246007, Gomel, Republic of Belarus 2
Scientific Research Institute of Fire Safety and Emergencies of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of
the Republic of Belarus, 220072, Minsk, Republic of Belarus
The lessons of Chernobyl today take on new significance, with a special focus on social and
ethical consequences of this major disaster. While the main importance is still being attributed
to radioecological and medical effects, these, too, should be considered essential issues not to
be underestimated. In fact, the potential of humanitarian and socio-ethical dimensions can
appear even more global and bear more significance than environmental consequences because
they trigger the processes of social disintegration and general destabilization of the society.
Lately, the Chernobyl-related issues have started to reveal the tendency of being regarded as
rather outdated and of no more relevance to the modern times. However, the events of recent
years (Fukushima Daiichi accident) demonstrate, in a convincing manner, the inadequacy of
such attitudes towards such important matters and to the aspects of nuclear technosphere
development in general.
Even today, 31 years after the Chernobyl accident (being also the half-life of the main dose-
contributing radionuclides of cesium-137 and strontium-90), a significant part of population
(30–40%) in Belarusian affected areas counts as a risk group that is characterized by adverse
personal and emotional changes arising from exceptionally subjective comprehension of what
radiation risk is.
One of the forces that has had no small part in shaping the public mindset governing the overall
perception of ‘the Chernobyl’ was the absence of a robust psychological defence mechanism
that could protect the populations against the torrents of inappropriate, psycho- traumatic
information expressed in oversized estimates of the real scales of radiological hazard and
unbalanced negative versus positive critical reviews of the situation. As an expected result, a
variety of the most inept and doom-laden prognoses transmitted to the social consciousness
was profoundly reinforced as something real or inevitable. Up to the present day, the affected
areas of Belarus keep preserving some of their Chernobyl-origin stigmas and myths, e.g. ‘all
foods are contaminated’, ‘all diseases come from Chernobyl’, ‘Chernobyl area is inhabited by
mutants’ etc.
The changes and shifts to the better achieved through recovery and remediation efforts do not,
as a rule, have the immediate effect on the public consciousness since it builds itself on
stereotypes and the past social experience. Therefore, the safety of livelihoods in the existing
exposure situations should be provided by means of ensuring the following essential elements:
information and psychological protection, development of the radiological culture and
practical safety skills, targeted risk communication based on the level of awareness and the
specifics of individual subjective perception of a radiation hazard.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
38
Development of innovative technologies to minimize the risks during the
construction and operation of structure on unstable soils
Fakhraddin Gabibov Intellectual Property Agency, AZ 1001, Baku, Azerbaijan
Modern construction requires the development of areas that are considered risky due to the
fact that the soils in these areas are characterized by structural instability. New engineering
measures (innovations) have been developed to significantly reduce or completely eliminate
the risks of emergency events in the construction and operation of structures on structurally
unstable soils. The new compaction and subsidence of ground by the deep explosions, the
new design of foundations, efficiently transmit the load on swelling and collapsible soils. It is
proposed to strengthen unstable soils in limited weak areas in the soil massif, determined by a
simple engineering calculation.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
39
Environmental risk associated with water in the abandoned mines
Palma Orlović-Leko1, Irena Ciglenečki-Jusić2, Nevenka Mikac2, Ivo Galić1, Alojzije Filipović3
1University of Zagreb, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia
2Institute Ruđer Bošković, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia
3Geological Survey of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 771210, Sarajevo, Bosnia and
Herzegovina
There is a strong need for mine water risk assessment. In Europe, the majority of mine water
problems are associated with abandoned mines, thousands of which can be found in nearly all
European countries. The abandoned mines are the mine sites that are no longer operational, not
actively managed, not rehabilitated. These sites include open pits and waste disposal areas, such
as tailing dumps and ponds. The most serious problems are linked to the interruption of
dewatering, leading to flooding in mines and discharge of mine water to surface water and to
river valleys. The major problem affecting water resources is acid mine drainage (AMD). That
is the consequence of the interaction of sulphides such as pyrite minerals, with oxygenated
water. Due the increased mobility of metals at low pH, acid mine waters with elevated
concentrations of toxic metals and metalloids, such as As, can affect water quality and thereby
also aquatic biota. The mine water can pose serious health hazards for the communities around
the area, and can affect the livelihood of communities that depend on fishing.
In the Balkans region, we have investigated the quality of the water and sediment in the lakes
that have formed naturally in the place of former open pits (OP) of the Smreka iron mine, Drage
coal mine, Vinjani bauxite mine, as well as in the Veovača tailing lake, located in the location
of the of abandoned Zn-Ba-Pb mine. Metal concentrations were determined using ICP-MS
techniques. It was found that lakes are not acidic; the pH values are circum-neutral due to the
presence of carbonates. At the location of the coal mine, the water is characterized by elevated
Mn (55.8 - 84.3 µg/L), Ni (30.7 - 33.1 µg/L) and uranium (up to 33.7 μg/L) concentrations.
Number of metals (Cd, Pb, V, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, Sb, Ba, As) showed high enrichment in
sediments of the lakes Smreka and Veovača. In both lakes, concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Pb
and Zn in sediment are above the Probable Effect Levels (PELs) values, according to the
Canadian Sediment Quality Guidelines. However, the concentrations of metals in the water of
these lakes are low suggesting that metals deposited in sediment are not very mobile.
Mine water studies and designing monitoring program allow timely recognition of risks and the
development of methods to minimize their adverse impact.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
40
Risk assessment and possible solutions for certain abandoned mines in the
Dinarides area
Ivo Galić1, Branimir Farkaš1, Ivan Soldo2
1 Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering University of Zagreb, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia
2 Ministry of Economy, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia
The abandoned mine sites are associated with high levels of environmental problems, physical
hazards and socio-economic issues. Mining works have significant and long-lasting impact on
environment, especially if mining works are abruptly discontinued and measures of
rehabilitation of the mining area are not carried out. Dangers are manifested, dominantly in
reducing the safety and human health, in changing landscapes and environmental pollution. In
the Dinarides area there are numerous mine sites where, because of political and economic
reasons, mining works were suspended or minimised and no rehabilitation was carried out. Over
the last 50 years, the most common was the exploitation of metallic ore (iron, lead, zinc and
bauxite) and coal deposits, after which there were numerous unrehabilitated and abandoned
mines in a very sensitive ecosystem. In karst areas, close to the mine sites a large amount of
overburden was deposited, leading to changes of landscape. Abandoned mines and waste-rock
dumps represent a constant threat because in these areas the garbage is uncontrollably dumped.
Also, there is a great risk of slope instability and endangering lives and health of people in the
immediate environment. Priority in the rehabilitation of abandoned mines is given to those
mines that present severe public safety concerns and then to those characterized by adverse
impact on the environment. In this work we have focused on several abandoned or minimally
used surface bauxite mines as well as waste-rock dumps in which, due to the lack of control,
garbage is dumped. In order to minimize life-threatening and human health risks, effective
rehabilitation measures for these abandoned mines were proposed.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
41
Assessment of post-earthquake ground settlement of clayey soils based on
consolidation settlement potential
Youngcheul Kwon1, Yudai Kawamura1, Hajime Imanishi1
1Tohoku Institute of Technology, 35-1 Yagiyama Kasumicho, Taihaku, Sendai, Japan
Shinhama area in Shiogama, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, is an unimproved ground that reclaimed
from the 1970s where the soft clayey soils were thickly deposited. As a result, the ground
settlement has been progressing in the area for a long time, and a large-scale settlement occurred
immediately after the earthquake, especially the Great East Japan Earthquake in Tohoku in
2011. In the ground settlement due to an earthquake, there are two major influence factors:
crustal movement and surface layer ground deformation. This study focuses on consolidation
settlement of soft clayey soil on the latter. Shiogama clay collected from the site is subjected
to consolidation tests using two types of soil samples: the undisturbed clay and artificially
reconstituted clay soils. The difference in the void ratio between the undisturbed and the
reconstituted sample at the consolidation yield stress, Pc, is defined as consolidation settlement
potential in this study. Consolidation settlement potential indicates the maximum amount of
ground settlement caused by clay soils after earthquakes, that is, the possibility and the risk of
ground settlement by earthquakes. This may be different from the actual amount of settlement
because it is assumed that the skeletal structure of the clayey soils is completely destroyed by
earthquake motion. In order to estimate the consolidation settlement potential, however, many
of consolidation tests have to be carried out using the undisturbed and the reconstituted samples.
It has been considered a limitation of these kinds of approach because it requires a lot of time
and the advanced consolidation test equipment. Therefore, authors have been studying the ways
that the consolidation settlement potential can be assessed more easily. Based on this motivation,
the pilot study that could estimate the potential using the plastic limit of soil is proposed in this
study. Finally, the risk of the ground settlement after earthquakes is estimated quantitatively at
each measured points of in-situ by using the method proposed in this study. Authors will present
about the basic concept of the settlement risk assessment method and the result of comparison
between the predicted settlement and the actual amount of settlement data conducted to verify
the applicability of the proposed approach.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
42
Development of safety principles and criteria on offshore hydrocarbon facilities and
infrastructures
Gennadiy Shmal1, Vladimir Nadein2, Nikolay Makhutov3
1President of CISPR, Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia 2General Director of LLC “OGS-Energodiagnostika”, Russia 3Corresponding Member of RAS, Chairman of the Board on Technogenic Safety
Oil and gas producing countries and companies starting exploration, extraction, processing,
storage and transportation using traditional and new offshore technologies is associated with a
whole complex of complex legal, scientific, technical, technological, economic problems.
Experience in the development of the offshore fields in the North, Kara, Okhotsk, Caspian Seas,
in the Gulf of Mexico showed that the facilities and infrastructure created on the shelf should be
categorized as critically (CIF) and strategically (SIF) important for national security by their
socio-economic and potential hazards. In this regard, the justification and safety assurance of
such facilities and infrastructures should be based on the highest requirements for their design,
construction, operation and decommissioning. The requirements include two main groups -
ensuring compliance with applicable national and international standards and rules of
Rostekhnadzor, the Maritime Register, Rosstandart, Rostransnadzor, Stroynadzor, and risk-based
approaches with new methods and criteria of the Security Council, Russian Academy of
Sciences, EMERCOM of Russia.
Assessment, provision and improvement of safety according to risk criteria for facilities and
infrastructures of offshore development involves consideration of such issues as multilevel
scheming of scenarios for the emergence and development of hypothetical, beyond design and
design based accidents and catastrophes, the use of conjugate systems of standard, emergency
and catastrophic diagnostics and automated protection, multi-criteria safety examination at all
stages of the life cycle in terms of strength, resource, survivability, cold resistance, seismic
resistance, crack resistance, explosion-fire resistance.
Report outlines main provisions of the scientific, applied and methodological developments of
specialists of the Union of Oil and Gas Industrialists, sections of the Scientific and Technical
Council of Rostekhnadzor, the Working Group under the President of the Russian Academy of
Sciences on risk analysis and safety issues, LLC OGS-Energodiagnostika. They were carried out
in the last two decades in relation to the Sakhalin-1, Sakhalin-2, CPC, Prirazlomnaya projects in
cooperation with leading foreign companies (USA, Norway, Japan, Great Britain, the
Netherlands). The results of these developments are reflected in two oriented volumes of the
Safety of Russia series - “Safety fundamentals during the development of the continental
shelves” (2013, 768 p.), “Ensuring the strength and safety of the facilities on continental shelf”
(2015, 664 p.).
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
43
Scientific support of the basis of state policy in the field of industrial safety
Nikolai Makhutov1, Alexander Rybas2, Vladimir Nadein3
1Russian Academy of Sciences, Chairman of the Board on Technogenic Safety 2Rostekhnadzor, Moscow, Russia 3OGS-Energodiagnostika LLC, Moscow, Russia
At the international conference held in Baku (Azerbaijan) it should be borne in mind that a
whole range of measures is being taken in the world to improve safety and reduce the risks of
accidents, catastrophes and natural disasters. This applies to the Sendai Framework Program of
the UN until 2030, the programs of the CIS member states for the protection of the population
and territories from natural and man-made disasters.
In the last two years, in the Russian Federation, Presidential decrees approved the basics of state
policy in the field of fire, industrial and integrated safety in emergency conditions. In these
programs and fundamentals, one of the main criteria in science-based safety assessments is to
use the risks of hazards (crises, failures, accidents and catastrophes) for all stages of the life
cycle of industrial facilities. Risk parameters are defined as a function of the likelihood
(frequency) of these hazards and the negative consequences (damages) from them. According to
these parameters are established: hazard classification; categorization of facilities; the
acceptability or unacceptability of design, technological, operational and supervisory decisions.
At the same time, quantitative damage can be defined in three terms, such as: social (loss of life
and health of operators, personnel and population), material (loss and damage to objects of the
technosphere and natural environment) and economic (total financial losses in social, natural and
technological) fields.
To define, standardize, and improve integrated security, it is necessary to use two risk
characteristics: the actual risks that emerged at this stage of the life cycle, and the acceptable
risks that are set taking into account social, technological, and economic opportunities.
Acceptable risks are scientifically justified and established by the state as the ratio of critical
(unacceptable) risks to the risk margin. The difference between actual and acceptable risk
determines the level of safety.
To achieve a given level of safety, it is necessary to implement complexes of organizational
design, technological, personnel, and supervisory measures with scientifically based financial
costs of industrial enterprises and industries aimed at reducing actual risks to an acceptable level.
On the basis of scientific and applied research, the report provides basic equations, design cases
and parameters linking the interaction of science, government and business in order to
implement the foundations and strategies of national and international security.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
44
Exclusion of the risks of injury in the release of the mountain mass from cleaning
blocks and bunkers
Eugeny Gumennikov, Nikolai Buktukov, Gulzada Mashataeva
Institute of Mining Art named D.A.Kunaev, Kazakhstan, 050046, Almati, Abai ave., 191
The article provides an analysis of the effectiveness of hydroimpulsive destruction of hard and
abrasive rocks relative to the existing blast-hole drilling technology, as well as the processes of
destruction by steel shells.
The work is devoted to solving the problems of remote crushing in an explosive-free way based
on the modernization of an experimental model of a hydraulic cannon developed in the Institute
of Mining Art named D.A.Kunaev.
The impulserubble-striking is equipped with a impulse rock-breaking organ with an impact
energy of 250–300 kJ, contains a powerful thermal generator, which, due to overheating of the
fluid in one of the water filled sections of the barrel cavity, creates a hydrostatic pressure of
water up to 300 MPa in 2-3 seconds. Then, in accordance with the specified pressure, the shut-
off valve is activated and the water jet, which is converted into the cylinder in the aero-
hydrodynamic path, is ejected from the nozzle onto the object to be destroyed at a speed of
about 650-700 m / s.
The distance to the destructible object is up to 5 m. When using a side-bucket in quarries, the
distance to the destructible object can be increased up to 15 m by moving the column with the
hydraulic gun out of the guides.
Water consumption up to 5 m3/h during continuous operation. Electricity consumption per shot
0.25 kW/h.
The use of a hydro-impulse rubbish will allow remote cutting of oversized during the
production process and increase the productivity at the mining facility by an average of 10-
12%, as well as fully ensure safe technological and environmental conditions for underground
personnel.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
45
Stability and risk in recreational development of the coast of the Cheboksary and
Kuibyshev reservoirs
Anna Gumenyuk, Inna Nikonorova, Marina Vishnevskaya Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Russia
The study area is located in the northern part of the Chuvash Republic, on the right and left
banks of the Cheboksary and Kuibyshev reservoirs (The Volga river), which caused the
division into the right-bank and left-bank parts.
The right-bank part includes the modern borders of the cities of Cheboksary and
Novocheboksarsk, the left-bank part - the Trans-Volga region. Chuvash Zavolzhye is a favorite
place for recreation for urban residents.
According to Bredikhin (2008), the relief stability is associated with two circumstances. First,
the stability of the relief depends on the natural properties of the relief, which determine its
dynamics and evolution.
These include morphometry (nature of erosional dismemberment, slope steepness, relative
heights, remoteness from denudation basis, etc.), morphology (river valleys shape, longitudinal
profile of slopes, shore shape, etc.), modern geomorphological processes, their type and
intensity. The natural properties that determine the natural stability should also include the
properties of the substrate (granulometry of loose sediments, degree of permeability, form of
occurrence, etc.).
The natural properties that determine the natural stability should also include the properties of
the substrate (granulometry of loose sediments, degree of permeability, form of occurrence,
etc.). Secondly, sustainability is determined by the type of recreational development. The
territory undergoes changes already at the preparatory stages, during the period of technogenic
development and, finally, during recreational operation.
Sustainability is one of the most important factors determining the development path (changes
and sometimes destruction) of natural complexes. Only when it is taken into account can one
make a reasonable forecast of the development of a recreational territory, and, consequently,
save it as a recreational resource for a more or less long time.
The relief of the right-bank part is subject to intensive gully-ravine erosion, landslides are
actively developing. The slopes undergo repeated motions that form landslides-alloys.
These dangerous relief-forming processes adversely affect the existing recreational areas
located within the Cheboksary reservoir. Debris covers the Moscow Embankment, where
pedestrian and cycle paths are laid. Currently, this coastal part of the Cheboksary reservoir is
under reconstruction.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
46
Automation of the project and risk management system on the example of PJSC
Gazprom Interantional investment projects. The latest software for risk analysis of
the Russian manufacturers. Information security of PJSC Gazprom
Yana Krukhmaleva
PJSC GAZPROM
Without exception, all global projects implemented using modern methods and best project
management practices do not fit into the budget and deadlines. The main reason is the inability to
make risk-oriented decisions and to control the situation in the face of uncertainty,
incompleteness and inaccuracy of information, in inefficient risk management.
Some investment projects implemented by PJSC Gazprom are implemented on the principles of
project financing with the involvement of foreign partners. Such projects are characterized by
scale, complexity and capital intensity, a large number of stakeholders, as well as the associated
high demands on the efficiency and transparency of project management.
For more than 10 years, PJSC Gazprom has been creating a comprehensive project management
information system, the main task of which was to increase efficiency in decision making under
uncertainty and opacity during project implementation. In accordance with Federal Law No.
209-FZ of July 19, 2018 “On Amendments to the Federal Law“ On Joint-Stock Companies ”,
risk management and internal audit should be organized in a public company ... What increased
the importance of the presence of risk management in state corporations. But due to the lack of
specifics on the formalization of this functionality, the absence of exclusively Russian risk
management standards that will allow you to effectively manage projects taking into account
risks in Russian reality, the lack of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the work of the
relevant unit, work in the field of risk management is formal, and almost negligible in almost all
major corporations. Regarding the use of an automated risk management solution, due to the
absence of strict requirements to use a single Russian software product for risk accounting and
control, most even very large companies use primitive unsuitable for system work tools (excel,
word), and the whole process is formal character Although in this direction, Russian analogues
of high-quality software already exist. There is a second no less global problem in project
management. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 16, 2015 No.
1236 “On imposing a ban on the admission of software originating from foreign countries for the
purpose of procurement for state and municipal needs” prohibits admission of programs
originating from foreign states.
First Deputy Chairman of the Government and Head of the Ministry of Finance A.G. Siluanov
signed a directive ordering state-owned companies to develop a clear plan for the transition to
domestic software. Back in 2015, Vladimir Putin demanded that state-owned companies start
switching to domestic software, in November of the same year, Prime Minister Dmitry
Medvedev signed a decree that prohibited state-owned companies from purchasing software
abroad, if there are analogues in Russia. In July 2016, the relevant directive was signed by Igor
Shuvalov. In February 2018, a government commission decided that the Competence Center for
Import Substitution in the ICT field would be coordinated with plans for the transition to
domestic software. In accordance with the new Siluanov directive, state-owned companies, ten
days after its receipt, will have to convene a board of directors, where state representatives must
approve the directive. After that, state-owned companies must approve a plan for switching to
Russian software within two months - by 2021 its share should exceed 50%. Similar tasks should
be assigned to subsidiaries. These are companies from the list No. 91-p, approved by the
government in 2003.
But the whole problem is that in Russia there are no analogues of imported software in many
areas of activity. And plans to switch to Russian software will not solve the problem itself, since
the transition is impossible.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
47
Russian transport network-bridge between Europe and Asia
Andrew Botviniev Moscow, Russian Federation
Improving the standard of living of people in the global or national economy is equally
dependent on the availability and quality of goods and services. Globalization of economic
processes is directly related to the increase in the intensity of trade, strengthening and expansion
of international cooperation. There is a growing need to ensure the rapid and safe movement of
goods carried out by international transport, including road transport and hence the
development of a network of international transport corridors. The possibilities of increasing the
efficiency of transit transport infrastructure through the development of the Russian transport
network, the introduction of innovative technologies are described here. The main result should
be an increase in the quality of logistics services, which involves primarily reducing the delivery
time and all types of logistics costs. The development of transport infrastructure in accordance
with the new requirements for the quality of services of logistics operators, the expansion and
development of international trade is one of the priorities in the economic program of the
Russian government. In order to accelerate the movement of goods, reduce transport costs, a
number of measures were taken, in particular, the state program "Development of the transport
system", which includes international transport corridors (ITC). ITC "North-South" will connect
the port of Saint-Petersburg with the port of Mumbai (India) for the strategic partnership of
Russia with the countries of the Caspian region, as well as improve Russia's connections with the
Gulf states and South Asia. The length of this corridor is more than 7000 km, most of it passes
through the Railways of Russia - up to 53% of the total length of the corridor. The Western
branch of the corridor provides direct rail links through the Samur (Russia) -Yalama
(Azerbaijan) border crossings, with further access to the Iranian railway network through the
Astara (Azerbaijan) - Astara (Iran) border crossing
The main advantages of ITC "North- South" over other routes (in particular, in comparison with
the sea route through the Suez canal) can be considered a reduction of more than 2 times the
distance of transportation, reducing the cost of transportation of containers compared to the cost
of transportation by sea. In the medium term, the timing of commissioning of the new Resht-
Astara (Iran)-Astara (Azerbaijan) railway line, which is the last missing link of the direct North -
South railway line on the Western branch of the ITC, will be in great demand.
Within the framework of cooperation between Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, a multi-modal route
India-Iran-Azerbaijan-Russia is being formed for transportation of goods in containers on a
regular basis. Sea transportation of goods-between the ports of India and Iran, rail and road
transportation - through Iran, followed by delivery by Azerbaijani and Russian Railways to the
end user. On the route connecting the EEC countries and China, one of the main transport
corridors is the Europe-Western China corridor, the territory of the Russian Federation is 2,233
km out of a total length of 8,445 km. Innovations include the organization of the movement of
unmanned vehicles, the absence of toll points on the roads for non-stop high-speed traffic, as
well as the introduction of a "free flow" system for the uniform passage of trucks in order to save
motor fuel, which will significantly reduce environmental pollution.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
48
Risks and uncertainties in the Petroleum Sector
Nikolay Zapivalov Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, SB RAS University, 630090, Novosibirsk, Russia
The problem of risks and uncertainties is one of the key problems in oil production (Upstream &
Midstream). In petroleum sphere, risks and uncertainties are unavoidable actualities. The
question is, how to identify them, and how to reduce them?
In petroleum sphere, risks may be described as follows (a symbolic risk formula is presented
involving the whole set of relevant factors):
R = H + (G1 + G2 + G3) + (T1 + T2) + (E + C) + F + P, where
H is human factor;
G1, G2, and G3 stand for geological, geophysical, and geographical information to the full extent,
with summarizing models;
T1 and T2 are technical and technological factors, with account of innovative techniques and
effective systems of production processes management;
E and C denote ecological factors and natural catastrophes;
F stands for financial means;
P is the political factor.
All of the above factors are to be viewed in their dynamics. At each specific moment, some of
them may be crucial factors and others may turn out to be negligible. It depends upon a wide
range of circumstances such as regional and local dynamics of geological processes, changes in
technological & information systems, geopolitics etc.
Professor Akif Narimanov (Azerbaijan, Baku), a discoverer of such major Azerbaijan oil fields
as Azeri, Chirag, Gunashli, said: «The risk of failure is always very high, even with best-
equipped geological survey companies. Many major companies, being fully confident in the
profitability of well-drilling at the Caspian structures, faced a full failure. It should be kept in
mind that an element of randomness is always present, even when we have a full scientifically
well-founded confidence. The average proportion of failed prospecting wells and those with at
least some oil inflow, is 9:1. On average, only one of seventy prospecting wells may result in a
commercially profitable discovery.».
The situation is similar in other regions of the world.
To cope with geological & geophysical risks, especially in oil prospecting and exploration
(«Upstream Risks»), we have to keep in mind several important points as follows:
❖ In oil prospecting for large territories or separate objects, there is no need to be strictly guided
by location of the oil-source rocks (beds). Therefore, detection of source rocks loses its
meaning as an indispensable condition of oil-and-gas capacity.
❖ At the initial stage of oil-prospecting works, the principle of «extensive (wide-range) search»
is very important. This approach brilliantly justified itself in India in 1955-1965, resulting in
discoveries of many oilfields either on land and on Bombay shelf. This approach also proved
itself in West Siberia.
❖ Above all, intuition and luck always remain a significant factor in petroleum geology, being
an implicit result of rich experience and high professionalism. A.A. Trofimuk and N.N.
Rostovstev (USSR), A.I. Levorsen (USA), Professor Akif Narimanov (Azerbaijan), Kev
Dashav Malavia and Subir Raha (India) were bright examples of geologists with fine
intuition which permitted them to make successful prognosis.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
49
Central Asia old tailings: Mutual risk factors
Igor Hadjamberdiev1, Rustam Tukhvatshin2, Ibragimjon Domulajanov2 1Toxic Action network Central Asia, per Ala-Too 6, Bishkek 720031, Kyrgyzstan; 1Asian medical institute named S.Tentishev, ul Gagarina 52, Kant 720000, Kyrgyzstan.
There are known old uranium tailings and dumps (former USSR military industry), and
warehouses of obsolete pestisides in Central Asia (CA). Uranium: North Tadjikistan - Degmay
tailing (exposition power 3,00-20,00 Mk Zivert/hour); Kyrgyzstan - dozen tailings (only in
Mailuu-Suu, total 1,9 mln cubic m), but also Taboshar, Shekaftar, Min-Kush, Ak-Tjuz etc. Total
radioactive wastes volume of four CA countries – about 760 mln ton. These tailings could
pollute distant areas of CA (by infiltration or directly by rivers, we made maps of these CA
risks). Contemporary study of locals health in tailings area find several additional unfortunate
factors (except uranium in environment). These factors are: arsenic (as some uranium wastages
transported to Mailuu-Suu from Warsaw Block -GDR, Czech-Slovak rep, Bulgaria). Obsolete
pesticides: infiltrated from badly saving dozen warehouses in Fergana and Chui valleys.
Persistent organic pollutants POP (especially – DDT) have the same unfortunate impacts to -
immunity, genetic, endocrine system as it has been shown by our 12 years study. New climatic
changing (GW) lead to hillsides destabilization and new landslides formation. For example,
number of rush of mountain lakes are rise up twice latest ten years, and now: 368 in Kyrgyzstani
Tien-Shen, 670 in Kazakhstani mountains, and 1553 in Tajikistani Pamir. So, it new dangers of
tailings and warehouses destruction. Additionally, there are foreign sources of health harmful
factors in CA – import of DDT. The chemicals are illegally imported as insecticide from India
and China, where DDT producing has been permitted by WHO (due malaria problem). Separate
and special hygiene interest of mutual impact for population health - are home and street dusts.
There are data that dust/smog in CA contains: a) local coal dust, which is, well known, contain
strontium and uranium; b) dioxins due burning of plastic and rubber); c) asbestosis dust from
house slate roof; d) Polyaromatichydrocarbonates (PAHs). We did screening analysis in several
rooms in two tailings areas (results: 36 μg/m2 and 90 μg/m2 ); just to compare – Caucasus high
industrial town 20 μg/m2 , China - polluted settlements 162 μg/m2. An additional danger to health
is emergence of the POP in the air.
Conclusion. Assessment of uranium tailings and pesticides warehouses in changing environment
- must take into account in National and regional Emergency planning.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
50
The experience of Norilsk Nickel: Model of management of technical and
production risks
Eugeny Telenkov
Norilsk Nickel Company, Russia
One of the main risk categories for industrial companies, which they can successfully manage,
are technical-production risks. Technical and production risks may affect the volume of
production, the need to restore damaged assets, compensation for damage caused by third parties
and the environment.
One of the key problems in evaluating technical and production risks is to accurately determine
the likelihood of a risk event occurring in the future. As a rule, it is quite difficult for a person,
even an expert, to determine with what probability a particular risk is realized. There is always
the possibility of error. In this regard, the quality of expert risk assessment strongly depends on
those who perform this expertise, and the risk manager should always take this into account in
his work.
Another significant problem in assessing the likelihood of the implementation of technical and
production risks is the use of statistical data. First, very often there is no relevant statistics on the
basis of which a risk assessment could be carried out. Secondly, even the available statistics
often do not reflect the specific conditions associated with the assessment of specific risks.
Thirdly, the use of statistics obtained in the course of monitoring the operation of specific
equipment for the purpose of analyzing risk in the future may also not always be relevant.
In Norilsk Nickel, a stochastic (probabilistic) approach is used to assess technical and production
risks based on the scenarios of the maximum possible and most probable damage. The
advantages of this approach compared to the expert assessment of determining the probability of
risk realization are:
• no need to require experts to accurately determine the value of the probability of risk
occurrence;
• the ability to simultaneously take into account when assessing one risk different scenarios
of events, ranging from the most probable to the most unfavorable;
• the ability to determine statistical parameters specifying the risk assessment, for example,
mode — the most frequent damage from risk realization, as well as performing calculation of
damage from risk realization for any given percentile;
• an opportunity to calculate the aggregate portfolio impact of risks on the production
activity of an enterprise.
This approach allows you to perform detailed diagnostics of the risk profile of an enterprise and
assess the potential damage associated with the realization of risks not only for the production
and financial activities of Norilsk Nickel, but also for the objectives of the enterprise related to
environmental protection, ecology and labor protection.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
51
Deformation of riverbed of Kura River as a factor of emergency situation in oil- and
gas-transport systems
Vugar Aliyev AMIR Technical Services LLC
Kura River is the main waterway of Southern Caucasus. Along the Kura River passes the main
pipelines of Baku-Tbilisi-Djeyhan, Baku-Tbilisi-Supsa, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum, etc., international
roads and numerous elements of an important critical infrastructure. The transport corridor
proceeds in a difficult environment – wetlands and a dense hydrographic system of Azerbaijan
and Georgia. On the one hand, numerous transitions of pipelines through water objects promote
a material deterioration, on the other hand, deformation of riverbed is washing away coastal
constructions, create danger of failures. It defines a research actuality of riverbed deformations
through which take place pipelines. Washout of riverbed under the pipeline leads its slacking-off
that, subsequently, leads to refusal.
In the presented work estimation attempt of riverbed deformations of Kura river from 1967 on
2017, an estimation of extremely possible vertical washout of riverbed and the forecast greatest
possible planned riverbed deformations of the river till 2050 is made. At designing of transitions
of the oil pipeline through the rivers the estimation of size of horizontal and vertical
deformations of riverbed is necessary. Comparing the maximum deformations of riverbed of
Kura River to other plain rivers, it is possible to draw a conclusion that at the investigated Kura
river deformation develops more intensively. It is tied assistance with isolation of high-water
bed from a riverbed and high degree of meandering that promotes to strong riverbed erosion.
High degree of meandering creates a turbulent stream that during high water seasons, transfers a
considerable quantity of solid deposits. The turbulent stream sated with deposits behaves as an
emery paper washing away riverbed walls.
The taking into account of riverbed deformations at designing of oil- and gas-pipelines on the
rivers will allow to lower considerably quantity of failures and, as consequence, will improve
ecological conditions.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
52
The formation of specific effective activity of natural radionuclides in building
materials and products
Ayten Akhmedova, Islam Mustafaev
Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Baku, AZ-1073, Azerbaijan
Natural radionuclides are extracted from the bowels of the earth along with various kinds of
mineral raw materials as a result of industrial activity, and enter the biosphere. Thereby, an
anthropogenic modified, commonly enhanced background radiation which is an additional
source of radiation exposure the population is formulated. In this regard, a special role in limiting
the public exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation belongs to the building materials
industry. First of all, this is due to large scale construction industry relating with the extraction
and involvement of natural raw materials and industrial wastes to the sphere of human activity.
It becomes obvious that the level of NRN exposure the population will depend on the
radioactivity of building materials, which are produced, usually from the local mineral raw
materials; established practice of construction in the country and the climatic characteristics of
the particular region.
Correct score of natural radionuclides loads allows comparing the levels of natural and artificial
sources of radiation, determining the volume, orientation and even the usefulness of
rehabilitation. In addition, the decrease in total current dose load, and consequently, the harmful
effects of radiation may be more effective in the implementation of measures to reduce exposure
from natural sources.
Power of gamma radiation in the room depends on the radionuclide content in the enclosing
building constructions. Reducing gamma background in the accommodations of civil, residential
and public buildings already constructed is practically impossible or uneconomical due to
significant penetrating of gamma-radiation. This decline is real only in those cases where
elevated levels of gamma background are due to the use of materials for the thermal insulation
backfilling device or territories with a high content of natural radionuclides around the building.
The basis for calculation may be the formula for determining the dose level at the center of the
accommodation on the known values of specific effective activity of NRN materials of barriers,
but in this case radiation penetrating from the outside and from neighboring rooms is not
considered. Initial data for calculation can be obtained from data on the radioactivity of local
building materials and, the technical and economic indicators of the project in terms of material
consumption per unit of construction products.
Statistical analysis of the results of the measuring allowed to determine the lowest value of
specific effective activity of NRN that observed in the lime 16.5 Bq / kg, the plaster 27.2 Bq / kg,
the asbestos and asbestos materials, respectively, 28.3 and 37.5 Bq / kg, sand-lime brick 62.8 Bq
/ kg, mortar mix 54 Bq / kg and of Portland cement and 93.2 Bq / kg, gravel 98 Bq / kg, crushed
stone 108 Bq / kg and sand-gravel mix 131 Bq / kg that are used as fillers have a somewhat
higher values Aeff compared to heavy concrete and lightweight aggregate concrete, that is
certainly related to the presence in the latter less radioactive Portland cement.
In general, it should be noted that the construction raw and materials are characterized by a large
range of variability NRN activity, however, as specified, the normalized value of specific
effective activity in the building mixtures can be easily calculated from the known values of raw
materials Aeff with respect to their mass contributions and characteristics of production
technologies. This important circumstance indicating the possibility of radiation quality control
of construction products by eliminating or reducing the proportion of highly radioactive
materials in building materials and products.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
53
Natural emergency situations
Природные чрезвычайные ситуации
Earthquake risk evaluation in Western Himalaya, India - a scenario report
Daya Shanker
Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee-247667
Uttarakhand, India
General understanding of risk is commonly probabilistic in nature, relating to the probability of
occurrence of a hazard that acts to trigger a disaster or series of events with an undesirable
outcome. This combines the probability of the hazard event with a consideration of the likely
consequences of the hazard. As an alternative to the probabilistic approach, we may use
quantitative measures of outcome as proxies for risk, particularly where we are concerned with
historical data. Probabilistic and outcome-based measures represent alternative but
complementary ways of approaching risk assessment. In particular, we may use data relating to
adverse socio-economic impacts as a retrospective measure of historical risk, representing
outcomes arising from the interaction of hazard and vulnerability. Technological risk is any
potential for technology failures to disrupt your business such as information security incidents
or service outages. Risk management processes all include steps to identify, assess and then
treat risks. Risk depends on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and location. Out of all events, risks
associated with earthquake are most attractive, because, it is mother of all risky events. For this
purpose Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand states (29°N - 33°N and 75°E - 81°E) of western part
of Himalaya, India one of the most seismically active regions has been considered for the risk
evaluation using earthquake data of period 1963 to 2017 with Mw≥4.0 taken from USGS and
ISC catalogue. Earthquake engineers express risk in terms of acceleration (g) which relates
direct force to buildings during earthquake loading. In this track, deterministic seismic hazard
analysis was carried out. Whole study region was divided into grids of 0.5° by 0.5° and 89-
seismo-tectonic potential sources were identified and using an appropriate attenuation model
the peak horizontal accelerations, peak vertical accelerations and ratios of peak vertical to
horizontal accelerations were computed. The estimated peak horizontal accelerations vary from
0.02g to 0.60g and peak vertical accelerations vary from 0.01g to 0.47g. The ratios of vertical to
horizontal accelerations vary from 0.27 to 0.78. The PGA contour maps prepared for the region
show that larger Peak Ground Accelerations are present in the region where there is a higher
density of larger faults and vice versa.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
54
The use of GIS technologies in assessing the exposure of the Chechen Republic
territory to dangerous natural processes and phenomena
Sharpuddin Zaurbekov, Luiza Bekmurzayeva, T Ozdieva.
Grozny State Oil Technical University named after Academician M. D. Millionshchikov,
Grozny, Russia
The great variety of landscape conditions on the Chechen Republic (ChR) territory determines
the wide development of dangerous natural processes and phenomena of different genesis. The
complexity of the orography of the Chechen Republic (ChR) territory makes difficult to conduct
full-fledged field research. GIS technology helps in this situation.
By virtue of GIS technologies, we obtained integral thematic maps of the dangerous natural
processes and phenomena demonstration on a scale of 1: 600,000 relative to certain subtypes of
landscapes. This approach is connected, firstly, with the fact that dangerous natural processes
and phenomena are part of the landscape-forming factors. Secondly, the landscape basis is
recognized as the most convenient basis for the economic development of the territory.
For example, there were identified, according to literary and statistical sources, places avalanche
formation is possible (20-45о). It helped to construct a map of potential avalanche danger from
the available polygonal objects characterizing the steepness of the slopes. Further, the procedure
for subtracting areas covered with woody vegetation was carried out and areas with precipitation
amount insufficient for the formation of avalanche mass were excluded. At the final stage,
potential avalanche areas of less than 1 ha. were generalized. All results were updated in general-
purpose vector editors. Subsequently, the potential avalanche-dangerous areas obtained were
superimposed on the landscape map of the Chechen Republic and the number and area of the
avalanche-dangerous areas were calculated within each landscape subtype. At the next stage, we
calculated the number and area of avalanche-prone areas along the river basins of the Chechen
Republic, the map of which was previously constructed in the SAGA 2.04 system using a digital
elevation model.
Similar operations were carried out for other dangerous natural processes and phenomena, which
made it possible to obtain the following results:
− The high-altitude subalpine bush-meadow landscapes are the most prone to avalanche
danger. Here are the maximum number of avalanche-prone foci (1412) and the maximum
area of avalanche-prone areas (129 km2).
− The greatest number of outbreaks belong to the Argun (1848) and Sharo-Argun river
basins (1195);
− The most susceptible to mudflow activities are mountainous forest and forest landscapes.
Here the maximum number of mudflow channels is noted (79). Most of these channels
fall on the Argun river basin (66 mudflow channels with a total length of 289 km2);
− The medium mountain forest landscapes are the most prone to landslide hazards (128
plots with a total area of 209.5 km2). The largest number of plots belong to the Argun
river basins - 167 plots with a total area of 255.6 km2 and Sharo-Argun - 112 plots with a
total area of 151.6 km2;
− The delta and floodplain landscapes are characterized by greatest probability of flooding
(1011 km2). The maximum area of potential flooding belong to the Terek River basin
(919 km2);
− The semi-desert and desert landscapes are most susceptible to wind erosion. In the
Chechen Republic, the total area of land subject to wind erosion is 1603 km2. The area of
highly exposed to wind erosion is 301 km2, moderately exposed - 1302 km2.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
55
Uzbekistan water resources: problems and solutions
Nigora Fayzibaeva University of World Economy and Diplomacy, Tashkent
The Republic of Uzbekistan is located in Central Asia in the subtropical zone of the northern
hemisphere. Its territory is 447.4 thousand km, the population is more than 32 million people.
Almost 4/5 of the country extends within the Central Asian deserts, bordered to the south and
south-east, powerful mountain formations of the Tien-Shan and Gissar-Alai. Mountains
occupy 15 per cent of its territory and have a high tectonic activity. The rational use of water
resources is one of the most important issues in Uzbekistan. The mismanagement of these
resources for 40 years now threatens agriculture, soil quality, and the availability of water
resources for a variety of purposes.
This article raises problems on providing the population with sources of water supply, as well
as one of the largest global environmental disasters in recent history experienced by the
countries of Central Asia - the tragedy of the Aral Sea, which, due to its environmental,
climatic, socio-economic and humanitarian consequences, poses a direct threat to sustainable
regional development, health, the gene pool and the future of the people living there.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
56
Mudflow Risk Management Experience in Kazakhstan
Akhmetkal Medeu1, Viktor Blagovechshenskiy1, M. Askarova2, T. Gulyayeva1, A. Medeu Jr.1,
S. Ranova1
1Institute of Geography, Almaty, Kazakhstan 2Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Mountainous areas of Kazakhstan are largely exposed to a mudflow hazard. The Zhetysu and Ile
Alatau ranges in the South-Eastern Kazakhstan are particularly vulnerable to a mudflow risk.
The city of Almaty with a population of about 2 million people, which is the largest metropolis
of the country, is located on mudflow cones of the Ile Alatau. Large mudflow disasters in the Ile
Alatau occurred in 1921, 1950, 1963, 1973, 1977, 1980, 1993, 1999, 2006, 2014, and 2015.
Volumes of catastrophic mudflows amounted to several million m3, the discharges exceeded 10
000 m3/s. The main reasons for mudflows’ formation are heavy rains with a layer of precipitation
of more than 40 mm and breaks of glacial lakes with a volume of more than 100 thousand m3.
In Kazakhstan, documentary data on mudflow phenomena are available since 1900. They are
systematically monitored since 1950. Such observations are carried out by Kazakhstan
Hydrometeorology Service, Kazakhstan Mudflow Protection Service, and the Institute of
Geography. There was compiled an anthology of mudflow phenomena in Kazakhstan. There
were investigated the geomorphological, hydrometeorological, and geobotanical factors of
mudflows’ formation. And there were developed the methods for predicting rain and glacial
mudflows.
The Institute of Geography has developed methods for assessing and mapping mudflow hazard
and risk. There were compiled small- and medium-scale overview maps for all the areas with
mudflow hazard in Kazakhstan. They were published in 2009 in the Atlas of Natural and
Anthropogenic Hazards and Risks of Emergencies in the Republic of Kazakhstan that was
awarded with a State Prize. There were compiled large-scale maps for the territory of Almaty
city, showing the mudflows’ distribution boundaries for mudflows with different volume and
frequency, as well as objects affected by mudflows. On the basis of these maps, there was
estimated a mudflow risk in the form of average annual economic damage and life losses.
In Kazakhstan, a great experience in construction of mudflows’ protection dams has been gained.
The first such dam was the famous Medeu dam, created by a directional explosion. This dam
saved the city of Almaty from destruction in 1973. Now there are more than a dozen of
mudflows’ protection dams of various designs in Kazakhstan. In the coming years, construction
of two more dams is planned.
Since the 1970s, an active work on preventive emptying of glacial lakes with a break hazard has
been carried out. The unique techniques for such emptying were developed. Currently, an
evacuation channel through a lake’s closing dike is laid in this regard. Explosives as well as mini
bulldozers and excavators are used for this purpose. Lakes are also lowered by high-performance
pumps and siphons. In this way, it was possible to prevent the breaks of several lakes that could
result in formation of catastrophic glacial mudflows.
In 2017, the Institute of Geography developed a draft system of an automated monitoring of
mudflow hazard and early warning at the territory of Almaty city. The project includes
construction of monitoring stations at glacial lakes and mudflow channels. The data from the
monitoring stations arrive at the control desk of an operational duty officer. When sensors of
mudflows are actuated, population emergency warning sirens turn on automatically and
hazardous road sections are blocked. The system will be installed in 2020. A similar system has
been developed to protect the International Center for Border Trade on the Khorgos River in the
Zhetysu Alatau.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
57
Highlighting Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Events Applying a GIS-Oriented
Approach Inside the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area
Aliakbar Rasouli1,2, Kevin Cheung1 and Hanieh Mobasher2 1
Department of Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
2
Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Tabriz, Iran
Signifying the major severe thunderstorms events (STE) climatology inside the Greater Sydney
Metropolitan Area (GSMA) is regarded to be very important topic in the current climatic
conditions. The most concurrent and widespread STE producing hails, rains, winds and
tornados (observed from 1998 to 2017) were selected to characterize their temporal-spatial
distributions, based on a few criterion applied to the associated database. Accordingly, STE
were first derived from the severe storm archive of the Australian Bauera of Meteorology, to be
compared with other relevant data-sets such as: Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the
Australian Gridded Daily Rainfall data in determining their concurrent distributions. Accurately
252 events, observed in 34 severe thunderstorm-days, have been differentiated in three
dissimilar single, paired and multi-STE types throughout the study area. To acquire spatial
distribution patterns, a ST-oriented GIS was intently applied in the archiving, examining,
integrating and mapping procedure of the main widespread STE inside the GSMA. Within a
Model Builder setting, two dissimilar geoprocessing indices such as a Nearest Neighbor Index
(NNI) and a Directional Distribution (Standard Deviational Ellipse) were applied to display the
spatial distribution of STE clustering and inclination behaviours.
Analysing STE occurrence shows that damaging hail events (48.81%) have the highest chance
of incidence in the region followed by flash flooding rains (27.78%), destructive speedy winds
(19.84%) and hazardous tornadoes (3.57%), occurring in afternoons and early evenings
predominately, particularly in summer months with a maximum in December. The concluding
outcomes might well highlight the concurrent influence of dissimilar synoptic weather systems,
as major controlling mechanisms, in the developing and initiating of severe thunderstorms in
the region. Mutually, the spatial distribution models demonstrate three main patterns inside
GSMA, indicating Sydney Metropolitan, coastal area and topographic effects, by dominating
single ST- days (47.1%) and multi-ST types (39.3%) in the region. These patterns may expose
the interplay of a strong effect of Tasman Sea, dense urban areas effects in controlling of the
wide-extend STE, while there at least one category of a synoptic weather system is active. In
most cases, on the ground, such storms have catastrophic and significant expensively impacts
upon the natural environment and social community in the region, specifically upon the Sydney
Metropolitan's highly populated areas in the current climate change circumstances.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
58
Seismicity of Azerbaijan for the period 2012-2019 yy.
Yetirmishli Gurban, Sabina Kazimova Republican Seismological Survey Center of National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, N.Rafibeily 9,
1001, Baku, Azerbaijan
For the period of 2012-2017 years seismicity was uneven both in magnitude of the released
seismic energy and in the number of occurred earthquakes. The number of earthquakes has
reached an anomalous value in 2015 due to an increase of weak seismicity. The greatest
concentration of epicenters is observed in Zagatala-Lagodekhi region, in Oguz, Shamakhi-
Ismayilli, Saatli seismically active zones, Talish, and the north-western part of Iran adjacent to
Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. In the water area of the Caspian Sea condensations are
observed in the northern Azerbaijani part, around the Absheron peninsula, and also in the
central part of the Caspian Sea. The territory of Azerbaijan part of the Greater Caucasus is
characterized by high seismic activity, where the historical period have seen a dramatic and
catastrophic earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 6. About quite energetic continuing tectonic
movements in the Caucasus says seismicity on the territory in 2012-2019 yy. On May 07, 2012
in 04 h 40 m and 14 h. 15 m 13 sek. with on Greenwich time in Zagatala region of Azerbaijan
with a magnitude of M=5.6-5.7, on October 7, 2012 at 11 h 42 m 50 s with on Greenwich time
near Ismailli region earthquake with a magnitude of M=5.3, near Balaken October 14, 2012 at
10h. 13 m 13 s. with on Greenwich time with M=5.6 occurred strong earthquakes.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
59
Mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan: ecological problems and environmental risk
assessment
Adil Aliyev
Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Azerbaijan National of Academy Sciences, H. Javid ave., 119, Baku,
AZ1143, Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is considered the land of mud volcanoes. Within East Azerbaijan, there are more than
350 mud volcanoes and mud volcanic manifestations on land and in the adjacent water area of
the Southern Caspian. Their study is very important from an environmental point of view since
the mud volcano activity has both positive and negative effects on the environment.
During volcanic eruptions, hydrocarbon gases are carried to the Earth’s surface, which form a
column of flame about 300–500 m high, sometimes in large quantities carbon dioxide and
volcanic breccia, which adversely affect the environment. During the period of gryphon-salsa
activity, volcanoes emit gas, mineral water, silty mud, and richly oil (more than 40 volcanoes are
known). As a result, in the volcanic areas, an unusual salinized, oil-saturated soil and a unique
volcanic landscape are formed from a geochemical point of view.
Along with geological and climatic factors, the formation of volcanic landscapes and,
accordingly, the ecology of the environment are significantly affected by the variability of the
chemical composition of fluids and trace elements of volcanic breccia.
The presentation discusses some important environmental issues related to the paroxysmal and
calm gryphon-salsa stage of mud volcanoes located in various climatic (semi-desert, steppe and
mountain meadow) landscape zones of Azerbaijan. On the basis of the actual material, the issues
of littering the territories of volcanoes, the dangers of carrying out construction works near them,
the preservation of the geochemical unique volcanic landscapes that have been formed are also
affected.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
60
The GIS and remote sensing in the monitoring of debris flow effects in Tajikistan
Jafar Niyazov1, Ali Fazilov1, Mirzo Saidov2
1Institute of water problems, hydropower and ecology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2Research center of Geodesy and Cartography of Republic of Tajikistan
Tajikistan is one of the country most prone to natural disasters, and mudflow/debris flow is
considered as most dangerous phenomenon (more than 30% of the total number of natural
emergencies), the season of which begins in March and lasts until August, and are represented by
all zones of formation (slope, valley, foothills, middle and alpine) and classes of mudflows
(zonal, regional and anthropogenic). Areas of Tajikistan prone to the risk of mudflow/debris flow
are located mainly in the Zarafshan, Surkhob, Obikhingoy Basins Rivers, on the southern slope
of the Gissar range, South Tajik highlands (Varzob, Vakhsh and Panj rivers). The significant
spread of debris flow phenomena differs Pamir and Darvaz (Panj, Gunt, Vanj basins of the
rivers).
Currently, most of the investigations are devoted to the study of the structure of mudflows and
their intensity, and much less attention to the analysis of mudflow hazard, assessment of
mudflow risk, as well as the consequences of mudflow events. The research works and risk
assessment was conducted using modern IT, GIS and RS technologies were carrying out in the
mountainous and foothill areas characterized by steep slopes, a high degree of weathering of
rocks and the presence of a large number of faults, which in conditions of sparse vegetation,
intense rainfall that entails frequent descent of mudflows and other exogenous processes.
GIS analysis are done on the base of SRTM digital elevation model, Landsat 8 Operational Land
Imager (OLE) images, geological map in scale 1:200 000 and field investigation. Application of
GIS technology provides an opportunity for easy performing of spatial analysis and investigation
the functional and spatial relations between different aspects of debris flow environment. The
results of the study can be used in the assessment and mapping of debris flows hazard, which is
the first step towards disaster risk reduction and management.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
61
Issues of assessment and zoning of seismic danger in Turkmenistan
Larisa Agaeva, Emil Esenov Scientific-Research Institute of Antiseismic Construction, Ministry of Construction and Architecture of
Turkmenistan
The territory of Turkmenistan is one of the highly seismic areas of the Alpine-Himalayan
seismic belt, characterized by the possible occurrence of strong earthquakes that occurred here at
all times. The seismic activity of the region is determined by the tectonophysical situation and is
associated with the large geological structures of the alpine folded zone of the Turkmen-
Khorasan Mountains, the Elbus system and the adjacent platform structures of the Turan plate. In
this regard, one of the priorities of the development of science in the country is seismology and
earthquake-proof construction.
Large populated areas, agro-industrial complexes are located in the seismically active zones of
the country, the development of mineral deposits is under way, and important structures and
transport routes are concentrated. The development of productive forces, as well as rural,
industrial and urban construction and the potential seismic danger of the territory determine the
need to develop preventive measures of protection from underground elements.
Danger is a property of material objects and systems of nature and society to cause any damage
when interacting. Seismic danger manifests itself in the form of a predictable, but uncontrollable
threat of earthquakes with given parameters on a specific area in a certain period of time, with
unpredictable economic, social and environmental consequences. Its main indicators are
intensity and risk. The first is characterized by the values of the energy class, the depth of the
source, the characteristics of the earthquake, regardless of the possible loss of the affected
objects. Seismic risk is estimated only for objects exposed to danger, with consequences defined
in time and space.
The earthquake of 1948, which triggered the development of seismological science and
earthquake-proof construction, awakened scientific and technical thought, presented new
requirements for seismic hazard assessment, methods for calculating buildings and structures for
seismic loads, quality design, construction and materials. As a result of experimental and
theoretical studies of the seismic regime and seismic and geological conditions, maps of general
seismic zoning (GSZ) of Turkmenistan, detailed seismic zoning (DSZ) of regions, and seismic
micro zoning (SMZ) of urban areas were compiled.
Results. A concept has been developed for taking into account the influence of local natural
conditions and factors on the distribution of the intensity of seismic vibrations. The scientific-
theoretical and methodological basis of the complex of research on GSZ, DSZ and SMZ has
been developed and the corresponding regulatory maps have been compiled on the example of
Ahal and Balkan regions in areas of 32 and 35 thousand square kilometers, respectively.
For the first time, a scientific and methodological manual for construction and installation work
was developed and introduced into practice - departmental construction norms VSN 01-05
(2005), where, along with well-known methods, it was proposed to use the results of
electromagnetic studies of wetted soils, vibration records from unsteady sources, residual seismic
deformation, seismic stability factors of slope deposits , features of the strike of discontinuous
and buried structures with respect to focal zones.
A technology and criteria for the development of construction sites on category III soils in terms
of more than 9-point seismicity, recognized by the former standards as unsuitable for
development and development, are proposed.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
62
Formation of sliding processes in the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan and
their threats (Case study: the Absheron Peninsula)
Avaz Salamov1, Vagif Mammadov1, Hadiya Khalilova2
1Institute of Geology and Geophysics of ANAS, AZ1143, Baku, Azerbaijan
2Institute of Physics of ANAS, AZ1143, Baku, Azerbaijan
Landslide is one of the dangerous exogenous geological processes (EGP) arising from the joint
activities of geological, geographical and technological factors of the Earth’s surface. Landslides
occur both on mountain slopes and on shore areas of water bodies.
Landslides cause a lot of economic and moral damage to residential buildings, population,
various engineering infrastructures and other social facilities.
The number of sliding processes in the world has increased sixfold in the last 50 years, and this
process is ongoing.
Studying sliding processes and eliminating the consequences of their destruction requires a lot of
financial resources.
The traditional engineering-geological methods of exploration can not fully evaluate the territory
in terms of its propensity for landslides. Therefore, it is expedient to use complex geophysical
works during engineering and geological research.
As a result of studies on landslide slopes of the Republic of Azerbaijan, carried out by the
method of vertical electrical sounding geological, hydrogeological and engineering- geological
conditions of the territory were specified. It was established that along with such factors as the
presence of faults, disagreement between the angle of decline and the steepness of the slope and
the change in hydrogeological conditions, favorable conditions for the preparation and activation
of sliding processes on the slopes are mainly created as a result of fluctuations in the level of the
Caspian Sea.
Landslides take place in the Greater Caucasus (Gusar, Guba, Shabran, Siyazan, Khizi, Agsu,
Shamakhi, Ismailly, Gobustan, Oguz, Gakh, Balaken), in the Lesser Caucasus (Gedabey, Goygol
districts), Talysh mountains (Lerik, Jalilabad, Yardimli and Astara district), Nakhchivan
mountain-wrinkle zone (Shahbuz district) and in the shores of Mingachevir reservoir.
High-risk landslide processes occur and are under development also in the territory of the
Absheron Peninsula, namely, on the territory of the Bayil slope of Baku, Zykh village as well as
on the eastern slope of the Bibiyabat brakhiantiklinali and the Ahmedli massif where the area is
densely populated.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
63
Understanding the risks of disaster reduction
Mikhail Faleev1, Nikolai Makhutov2, Evgeny Kozlov2
1Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis, Ministry of Emergency Situation, Russia 2Russian Academy of Sciences
Disaster risk reduction issues are declared by the UN under the Sendai Framework as one of the
most important ones for the period up to 2030.
Many countries in the world, having ratified this program, became participants in its
implementation. The Russian part of the program has become one of the constituent elements of
both the world program and the national program for the protection of the population and
territories from natural and man-made emergencies.
The state coordinator and main implementer of the program is the Emergencies Ministry of
Russia, and the scientific leadership is carried out by the Russian Academy of Sciences. The
Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis, which includes the country's leading specialists,
provides two main functions:
- consolidation of scientific potential around the creation of a scientific and regulatory and
technical base in the field of natural and man-made security of man, society and the state;
- formation of a public understanding of the role of disaster risk reduction for life support at the
individual, local, regional and international levels. At the same time, the provisions on the
quantitative assessment of integrated security indicators, reflected in two public declarations -
damages from loss of lives and acceptable social risks, are of key importance. These provisions
form the basis of state policy in the field of emergency protection and fire safety. They constitute
a contribution to the solution of theoretical and applied problems of security management in all
spheres of life activity of the “man - nature - technosphere” system.
The report sets out the results of the Company's activities both in the Russian Federation and in
the international community of scientific organizations in analyzing the risks of social and
economic crises, natural disasters, technological accidents and catastrophes.
The Company focuses on the human factor, which is directly connected not only with the
initiation of emergency situations and the magnitude of the associated damage associated with
them, but also with the most important human function - to predict, prevent and minimize social,
economic, technological and environmental risks.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
64
Experience of creating a monitoring system of dangerous hydrological phenomena
in the territory of Krasnodar region Evgeniy Sherzhukov1, Dmitriy Morozov1
1 LLC "Emercit», Krasnodar, Russian Federation
In recent decades, there has been a steady increase in natural hazards that have caused damage to the economy. Among all natural disasters, flood damage is about 80%. According to
Roshydromet, the territory in the Russian Federation is periodically exposed to about 500
thousand km2; floods with catastrophic consequences - 150 thousand km2, where more than 300 cities, tens of thousands of villages and settlements (settlements) are located, more than 7
million hectares of agricultural land.
To reduce the damage caused by floods, a number of measures of a different nature are
necessary, including a reliable operational forecast of changes in the water level for a particular
locality or economic object. The lead time of the forecast should provide the necessary reaction
time.
The state observational network has observation posts that provide a high degree of reliability
of the forecast of hazardous events for 1-3 days. At the same time, the forecast of Rosgidromet
for a particular settlement has significant uncertainty, both in the degree of danger of the threat
and in the time of its occurrence. To take timely measures to protect the population and objects
of the economy, an ultra-short-term forecast (2-6 hours) of hazardous phenomena for specific
objects with a certainty close to 100% is required. Such a forecast will make it possible to take
prompt measures to protect the population (up to evacuation). It is possible to solve this problem
using departmental and regional resources. The use of regional resources is due to the fact that
the full responsibility for ensuring the safety of the population is directly borne by the heads of
municipal and regional authorities, who need prompt and reliable information about the
emergency situation, or about the threat of an emergency situation, localization of the place of
emergency and its scale.
In 2012, an automated flood situation monitoring system was created in the Krasnodar
Territory. The system contains 214 hydrological posts installed in 29 municipalities, of which
38 observation posts are equipped with precipitation measurement sensors. Based on the
information on precipitation, using hydrodynamic models, the hydrograph and flooding zones
are calculated at given points of the watercourse.
In case of reaching the water level of marks of dangerous or adverse events, the system of
emergency voice notification of the heads of municipalities and rescue services is activated.
The flood monitoring system established in the Krasnodar Territory has shown its high
efficiency. In addition to mountain rivers, the system can be used to monitor lowland rivers
during the spring flood in the step-by-step correction mode of the flood forecast.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
65
Natural Disaster Exodynamic Processes and Events in Georgia
Merab Gongadze, George Lominadze, George Khomeriki
Vakhushti Bagrationi Institute of Geography, Tbilisi State University
Environment protection from natural disasters and their development forecast is now one of the
major socio-economic problems for each civilized country and one of the priority directions.
According to the scale of development of natural disasters and the damage inflicted by them,
Georgia, is one of the most outstanding among the mountainous countries, as these processes
cover almost all geographical areas here. Thus, the constant monitoring and research of these
processes is very important for sustainable development of the country's economy. The backward
movement trend of the glaciers of the southern slope of the Caucasus is related to the growing
rate/speed of global warming, which is determined by the long-term observations of glaciologists
of the Tbilisi State University Institute of Geography. In the years 1970 - 2013, here glaciers
retreated by 300-350 m, i.e. by 12-13 m per year. This circumstance is associated with excessive
evaporation, which enhances the circulation processes in the atmosphere and, therefore,
increases the precipitation. For example, according to the data of the last years of the weather
stations (Telavi, Sagarejo, Lagodekhi, Dedopolskaro) in Kakheti region, the sum of the average
annual precipitation exceeded by 25 - 40% the average of perennial norm. Increase of
precipitation, in its turn, causes a sharp intensification of natural exodynamic processes (snow
avalanches, flood flows, rock avalanches, landslides, mudflows etc.). Based on the triggers
analysis and generalization of the results of studies conducted in the last decade there are defined
the regions of Georgia, where in the conditions of high sensitivity of the natural environment, in
case of atmospheric precipitation over perennial norm or high intensity rainstorms period, is
expected activation of natural disasters processes above allowable background and related with
this geo-ecological complications. The danger of activation of these events or their
transformation into hazardous condition almost permanently exists in the regions of Kakheti and
Mtskheta-Mtianeti, Racha-Lechkhumi, Svaneti, Adjara, Samegrelo foothills, Upper Imereti
region and in the territory of Tbilisi agglomeration.
The Georgian National Academy of Sciences has developed the concept of ecological security of
Georgia. It provides for the establishment of a permanent ecological commission, composed of
scientists and practitioners, working in the environmental field, which will supervise the
implementation of scientifically proven and practically time-tested environmental measures in
the country.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
66
The relative risks for population health in Krasnoyarsk city caused by cold
weather
Olga Taseiko1,2 Daria Chernykh1,2 1
Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology, 660037, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
2Institute of Computational Technologies SB RAS, 660049, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Climate change every year more and more intensively affects the population health. The
dependence between air temperature and mortality in recent years has been studied quite
intensively. Many researchers show the presence of a connection between temperature waves
and increasing of premature mortality. The effect of abnormal temperatures is associated with
an increase in mortality mainly among the elderly, suffering from chronic diseases of the
cardiovascular or respiratory systems.
According to meteorological observations Krasnoyarsk territory is characterized by the sharply
continental climate and high temperatures during summer (to +36 ºС) and extremely low during
winter (to -43 ºС). To take into account the influence of these features on the population
mortality and morbidity this research considers such parameters as cold waves and sudden
temperature changes over a short period.
The identification of cold waves for Krasnoyarsk city was carried out by the method of long-
term distributions for average daily temperatures. The daily mortality rates were divided into
four age groups (0-17, 18-29, 30-64 and 65+) and three groups of causes of death (circulatory
system diseases, respiratory diseases and external causes). Temperature contrasts were
evaluated for a time period not exceeding one day. To estimate the proportion of the population
affected by the obtained parameters the relative risks are calculated.
The results of this study present that the greatest negative impact from cold waves there were
established for mortality from circulatory system diseases in the age of 65 years and older. At
the same time, the relative risk indicators for the sudden temperature changes factors are
significant for diseases of the circulatory system.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
67
Atmospheric geochemical risks in strengthening the processes of natural
desertification and anthropogenic land degradation in southern Russia
Tatiana Kuderina Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia
Environmental changes in the territory of central Eurasia, associated with climate change and
geopolitical processes, lead to the formation of new landscape connections and land use changes.
The processes of desertification and land degradation are mostly long-term in nature, but
periodically lead to catastrophic events causing natural and socio-economic risks. The global
challenge of our time is to combat desertification, land degradation and resist drought. Land
management, which ensures the well-being of people, should be based on knowledge of the
current state of landscapes and the use of rational technologies.
Desertification in Central Asia at the end of the twentieth century led to regional disasters (the
Aral crisis, melting glaciers, water shortages, etc.) and has a negative impact on adjacent
territories. Degradation of the surface of landscapes leads to an increase in the emission of fine
material into the surface atmosphere. Transboundary transport determines the migration of a
substance over long distances. An increase in the dusting of the atmosphere actively influences
the welfare of the population.
The aim of the research is the ecological and geochemical assessment of the surface atmosphere
in landscapes of southern Russia, which identified local and regional sources of atmospheric
dusting and revealed the effect of transboundary substance transfer.
Experimental ground studies were carried out in all natural zones with a landscape-geochemical
approach using the aerosol complex of observations of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Russian Academy of Sciences. A.M. Obukhov and the Institute of Geography RAS. At the same
time, modern types of land use of the underlying surface and climatic parameters of atmospheric
dynamics were taken into account.
The results of studies of natural and anthropogenic landscapes in the south of Russia revealed
local sources of finely dispersed substance emission during the drying and degradation of the soil
surface, determined anthropogenic influence and transboundary pollution. In the conditions of
climatic desertification, the dusting of the atmosphere increases with the disturbance of
vegetation cover due to risky land use. These processes are directly affected by economic factors
(short-term land lease, one-time economic benefits, disruption of crop rotation, lack of protection
of vulnerable areas, etc.). The anthropogenic effect on the surface atmosphere has an areal
character and is manifested in an increase in the concentrations of heavy metals, rare-earth and
other chemical elements coming from point man-made sources. The transboundary transfer of a
substance supplies into landscapes chemical elements that are not typical for a given area, and
may be the subject of interstate interactions to solve pollution problems.
Thus, atmospheric geochemical risks in the landscapes of southern Russia are long-term. They
are mainly affected by regional and transboundary pollution associated with economic activity.
Work done on the project Russian Foundation of Fundamental Investigations № 17-05-41121
and Russian national Foundation № 18-17-00178.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
68
About one way of protection against mudflows
Kamchibek Kojogulov1, Aichurok Toktogulova2, Gulnara Kabaeva2, Tabaldy Jumaev2 1 Institute of Geomechanics and Development of subsoils , National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz
Republic, Bishkek
2 Kyrgyz State Technical University named after I.Razzakov, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous country, so its territory is subject to intense natural and man-made
disasters, which include earthquakes, landslides, mudflows, landslides and other dangerous
phenomena. One of the negative processes causing damage to the population and economy of the
Republic is mudflows. Analysis of the literature has shown that the occurrence of mudflows is
primarily affected by hydrometeorological conditions on the mountainous terrain, capable of
creating large volumes of water during a short time period. As a result of long-term observations
of the processes of formation of mudstone mudflows, the presence of muddy substance in front
of the mudflow, at least 3 cm high, which is the guiding element of its movement. It is the
"tongue" i.e. the head of the suspension. This murky and high-viscosity layer of an aqueous
slurry followed by rapid mudflows is its "kernel". On the basis of our experiments found that if
you change the direction of motion of the muddy viscous water suspension in front of the
moving mud masses, i.e. "tongue", in the same direction begins to move the mudflow itself. The
proposed method of protection against mudflows is based on the control of the movement of the
"tongue" from the very beginning of the process of formation of the mudflow.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
69
The way to eliminate ice jams on the rivers of Kyrgyzstan
Kamchibek Kojogulov1, Aichurok Toktogulova2, Gulnara Kabaeva2, Tabaldy Jumaev2 1 Institute of Geomechanics and Development of subsoils , National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz
Republic, Bishkek
2 Kyrgyz State Technical University named after I.Razzakov, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
One of the dangerous natural processes in Kyrgyzstan, leading to flooding of coastal areas is ice
jams.
Conducted long-term observations on the Alamedin and Ala-Archa rivers only within the city of
Bishkek found that ice jams are mainly formed in front of bridges and hydraulic structures, in
which there are obstacles to the movement of ice.
An analysis of the literature shows that the complexity of the masking process, the high cost and
the insecurity of the field work associated with the elimination of this phenomenon, the difficulty
of accurately reproducing it in the laboratory are the main reasons for the low effectiveness of
the control measures taken.
To eliminate the formation of congestion in a certain part of the river, a method has been
proposed without destroying the integrity of the formed ice with snow cover, removing melt
water from the under-ice and arriving from above along the channel of ice with ice drift,
achieved by nesting in the center of the river bed, beginning from the end of the mash tail,
sequentially connected reinforced concrete gutters into a dug canal, the beginning of which is
with a semi-funnel-shaped fence with a slope and a deep bottom below the bottom of the river
bed.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
70
Scientific program of Republic of Bulgaria for environmental protection and
reducing the risk of negative phenomena and natural disasters
Emil Bournaski1, Ivan Ivanov1, Galia Bardarska1, Svilen Borisov1, Olga Nicheva1, Aleksey
Benderev1, Tatiana Orehova1, Vladimir Hristov1, Petar Gerginov1, Neli Hristova2, Polia
Dobreva1, Ivan Penkov2
1Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
2The University of Sofia, Bulgaria
In recent years, Bulgaria has suffered from a number of disasters that have killed people and caused
considerable damage to infrastructure, cultural heritage, protected natural areas, livelihoods and property
of the population. On the other hand, the characteristics of the environment, such as physical parameters,
air and water quality and dynamics, climatic conditions and geological environment, have a significant
impact on both the quality of life, human health and all aspects of human activity as well as on
ecosystems and biodiversity. This required the Government of the Republic of Bulgaria to undertake and
finance a national scientific program "Environmental protection and reducing the risk of negative
phenomena and natural disasters" at the end of 2018. The aim of the program is to conduct fundamental
and applied research aimed at ensuring a sustainable, favorable and safer living environment for the
population of the Republic of Bulgaria. The activities of the program are organized in the following
work packages:
WP.I.1. Regional/local scale characteristics of the climate of the country. WP.I.2.
Water balance and water resources of the country.
WP.I.3. Quality of national water resources (surface and underground).
WP.I.4. Processes, quality of the marine environment, ecosystem functions and services in the coastal
zone and the Bulgarian Black Sea Economic Zone.
WP.I.5. The quality of life in the country.
WP.I.6. Models of changing ecosystems as a result of catastrophic events in the past - a key to
understanding current and future threats to the planet.
WP.I.7. Biodiversity, ecosystem functions and quality of the living environment.
WP.I.8. Assessing the risk of adverse / catastrophic atmospheric and hydrophobic phenomena.
WP.I.9. Assessing the risk of adverse / catastrophic geological (including hydrogeological) phenomena.
WP.I.10. Assessing the dangers of catastrophic earthquakes and their consequences.
As well as cross-cutting work packages: WP.II.1. Creating a unified geo-information environment.
WP.II.2. International cooperation. WP.II.3. Public presentation and communication.
With the implementation of the program, science is expected to play a more active role in the
relationship between decision-makers, the media and the general public. Significant efforts will be made
to identify, formulate and offer to the public information on the current status and expected future
changes in the atmosphere, the lithosphere, the hydrosphere and the biosphere, their possible impact on
the quality of life and human activity and the necessary measures to prevent and mitigate of any adverse
or disastrous phenomena.
The present report pays more attention to water resources of the country and water balance. The
components of water resources such as rivers, lakes, artificial ponds, marshes and groundwater will be
analyzed and evaluated. The mechanism for the formation of groundwater resources in Bulgaria will be
defined in selected representative sections. A computer adapted-to-the-catchment model can simulate
with sufficient accuracy the river runoff using predicted rainfall data, and this can be used to construct a
water balance of the river basin. The assessment of the available water balance will be based on real
statistics on water consumption and water use in the country's economic activity. The water resource
required by Bulgaria from the Danube river will be defined on the basis of long-term studies of the
waters used. A comparison will be made with the water balance of the other EU countries. The water
balance of the Mesta transboundary river between Bulgaria and Greece will be assessed. A modern
assessment of national water resources will be made and forecast for their change.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
71
Global climate change and its impact on hydrometeorological condition in
Azerbaijan
Vugar Aliyev1, Rza Mahmudov2
1AMIR Technical Services LLC 2Hydrometeorological Institute, Ministry for Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic
Because of the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, several
hydrometeorological conditions, likely, will be significantly impacted. This paper presents a case
study review (from 1991 to 2014) of local weather generators in order to model hydrological
impact of climate change in Kura River basin in Azerbaijan Republic. The hydrometeorological
conditions considered in this study include maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation,
and streamflow. Changes in the frequency of hydro-climatic extremes are one of the most
significant consequences of climate change. We present here following main results of carried
out researches: on the territory of Azerbaijan, the average annual temperature has been increased
on +0.7°C in comparison with the multiyear norm; during the all period of instrumental
observation, the maximal temperature was +46°C (01-02 August, 2000); except of the spring, the
increase of the temperature has been observed in all others seasons of the year. The most growth
of the temperature is observed in winter. The increase of the temperature by heights depends on
the territory. So, on the altitudes >1000 m the often observable increase of the temperature is
about +1.1°C. In 2010 the increase of the average annual temperature in comparison with the
multiyear norm was higher (+1.3°C). On altitudes >1000 m such a rise was even about +1.9°C.
At last time the dynamics of local processes and the number of natural disasters depend on
hydrometeorological processes more essentially. In particular, intensity and repetition of floods,
squall of hail and sleet, submergence events increase. As a result, in the republic in spring of
2010, the sustainable submergence event, happened on the low flow of Kura River, has caused
500 million USD damage.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
72
Quantitative Prediction and Mitigation of Landslides and Erosion Risks using GIS
and Remote Sensing
Emil Bayramov1, Ramiz Mammadov1, Rafael Bayramov2, Saida Aliyeva3 1Geography Institute of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences
2Faculty of Geography, Baku State University
3Microbiology Institute of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences
The objectives of this research are the following: quantitative assessment of erosion-prone
areas, assessment of the impacts of climate change on future erosion risks and quantification of
erosion risks in relation to landcover classes. The practical value of this study is that it promotes
a collaborative planning and decision-making tool for the mitigation of erosion risks and
consequences which are inevitable for the Southern Caucasus. The selected study area in the
Southern Caucasus is the Ismayilly District. The scientific novelty lies in the fact that it
considers the aspects of climate change in the prediction of erosion risks. The Universal Soil
Loss Equation was used for the prediction of soil loss rates. Out of 2559 km2, 292 km2 were
predicted as critical erosion classes with soil loss rates of more than 10tons/ha/year.
Precipitation impacts calculated by means of theHadGEM2-AO climate change model to
erosion processes also showed an increase in soil loss rates. The quantification of predicted
erosion related to landcover revealed a significant variation of critical erosion classes within
barelands (5–10 ton/ha/year to 6.21 km2, 10–20 ton/ha/year to 11.90 km2, 20–50 ton/ha/year
to 28.24 km2, 50–100 ton/ha/year to15.44 km2, 100–200 ton/ha/year to 0.75 km2). The
quantification of erosion rates related to landcover classes showed their highest spatial
distribution variability within barelands (62.55 km2 out of total 71 km2) and grasslands (339.44
km2 out of total 895 km2). Significant areas of stressed vegetation with low NDVI values (0.1–
0.2) were observed to be 259.51 km2 within croplands affected by intensive agricultural
activities which reduced soil productivity over years.
Fig. 1 (a) USLE predicted erosion classes; ( b) quantified areas of predicted erosion rates for
current precipitation condition for 1960–2003 (W1.4) and future precipitation projections for
2041–2060(HD26PR50-HD85PR50) and 2061–2080 (HD26PR70-HD85PR70); (c) linear
representation of quantified areas of predicted erosion rates
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
73
Natural hazards in the mountain regions of the Azerbaijan Republic and these CIS
mapping
Mammadov R.M. Institute of Geography ANAS
Caucasus Mountains are characterized by the occurrence of hazardous contemporary
endogenous and exogenous processes such as earthquakes, mud volcanoes, rockfalls, screes,
avalanches, mudslides, flooding, etc. Processes of desertification, wind erosion, shrinkage of
territory of glaciers and water basins, landslides, mudflows etc. have been intensified in recent
decades.
Geomorphological hazards (the threat of a disaster and catastrophe, caused by a
geomorphological object, resulting in the emergence of avalanches, mudflows, landslides, and
other destructive natural processes) are activated in recent decades in the mountain areas of
Azerbaijan. These hazards are studied in context with related risk – the probability of activation
of natural events leading to material loss and killing of people.
Classification of geomorphological hazards: For area of occupation: 1) regional; 2) of medium
scale; 3) local. By duration: 1) Instantly occurring (in a second or a minute) – earthquakes,
avalanches, rock-falls and etc. 2) short-term (happening within hours, days) – mudflows,
atmospheric processes (heavy rains, snowfalls) and etc. 3) Long-term, i.e. during. By character
of influence: 1) destructive impact (earthquake, flood, landslide, rockfall, avalanche, etc.) 2)
paralyzing effect (heavy rain followed by flooding, haze); 3) debilitating impact (depending on
power of a process). By heaviness extent of results: 1) Weak (break of communications); 2)
Medium (damage on communication network and settlements); 3) Hard (heavy damage and
destructions in facilities and settlements, deaths); 3) Destroying (total loss of natural bases of
territorial complex, population and economy).
Reason of hazards:
Natural factor: Endodynamic activity of certain geoblocks is the key factor, defining the
balanced development of geocomplexes in the Caucasus region.
Anthropogenic impact: In 60es – early 90es of 21st century the landscapes of foothills and low
mountain were degraded at higher grade as result of expansion of vineyards, grain fields and
orchards, while the middle mountain areas and in part low-mountain forests as a source of fuel
were not subjected to intensive cutting.
The situation has changed in the last 10-15 years when the intense deforestation occurred in the
mountainous regions due to considerable deterioration of the socio-economic situation
In 90es, huge number of flocks were directed to alpine- and sub-alpine-type meadows of Greater
Caucasus. As a result of this, the extension of mountain slopes without vegetation was observed
in the medium and high regions of the Greater Caucasus.
In the study seismicity, rockfall, landslides, mudflows in the Greater and Lesser Caucasus of
Azerbaijan was research separately. Map of the landslide density of the Greater Caucasus, map
of the landslide tensity of the north-eastern part of the Lesser Caucasus, Map-scheme of
mudflow hazard of the Greater Caucasus, scheme of morphodynamic density of the Greater
Caucasus was develop. The overall territory area of the territories encompassed by landslides in
the territory Azerbaijan is over 4000 sq. km. also the settlements, exposed to landslides in
Azerbaijan is given as table.
13% of the territory (over 10 sq.km) of Azerbaijan are under the influence of hazardous natural
processes, including chiefly: hazard of flooding – 700 km2, hazard of mudflow – 1300 km2,
hazard of seismic shifts – 6518 km2, hazard of heavy snowfall and avalanche – 400 km2,
hazard of rockfall – 150 km2 .
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
74
Slope stabilization and erosion protection in a single operation
Eberhard Gröner, Armin Roduner Geobrugg AG, Romanshorn Switzerland
For a successful and long-term stabilization of natural embankments and new cuttings in loose
rock, their effective revegetation is very important. In combination with hydro or dry seeding,
so-called three-dimensional erosion control mats made of polypropylene are very effective. On
the one hand, the 3D structure reduces the impact energy of raindrops, and on the other, the drag
force of the draining water is reduced. In addition, soil particles as well as organic substances
such as small roots, branches and leaves can be retained in the loop structure, thus improving the
natural nutrient supply. In order to reduce the negative effect of heating by solar radiation which
occurs when black variants are used, systems color-matched to the soils with less heating and
thus a better greening success are available.
Geotextiles, which are used as planting aids, usually have only a low strength and are therefore
only effective for low slope angles, or in combination with a stabilization measure such as wire
mesh.
In the last 15 years, meshes made of high-tensile steel wire for slope stabilization in combination
with soil nailing have established themselves. They can transfer larger forces and thanks to a
very high puncturing resistance are better to introduce the load into the nailing. Their
dimensioning for the stabilization of superficial instabilities can be carried out with a design
software according to the so-called RUVOLUM concept.
In order to increase the range of application of the erosion control mats described above, they
were combined during production with a light mesh made of high-tensile steel wire to increase
their load bearing capacity to 53 kN/m. They are mainly used as roll-off protection and/or
greening aids without nailing to the ground. The experience gained has now been used to
produce a product that combines the advantages of high-tensile steel wire mesh and the erosion
control mat. Loads of 150 kN/m and puncturing resistances of 180 kN can be introduced into the
nailing when using a system spike plate.
We show the development and application of both systems. Thanks to the systems described
above, it is now possible to efficiently secure steep soil embankments in combination with a soil
nailing system and to revegetate depending on the location.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
75
Ten years’ experience in flexible debris flow barriers
Corinna Wendeler1, Eberhard Gröner
1, Alexander Barinov
1, Matthias Denk
2
1 Geobrugg AG (Romanshorn, Switzerland)
2 EMDES Environmental Engineering (St. Gallen, Switzerland)
Since 2005, over 250 flexible debris flow barriers have been installed, in more than 25 countries.
Between 2005 and 2008, full scale experiments at the test site Illgraben, in Switzerland, proved
the feasibility of retaining debris flows.
The efficiency of some of the first reference projects, mostly installed in Switzerland, was
analysed and a load design was then established together with the Forest, Snow and Landscape
Federal Institute (WSL). Standard systems were then developed with the simulation software
FARO. Data from real-scale testing were used to verify and calibrate the software outputs.
Following this development, the flexible ring nets became increasingly an alternative to classical
debris flow barriers in Europe, USA and South America. In large scale projects, where flexible
nets were installed in a row in the same channel, the efficiency of retaining large volumes and
the feasibility of this type of installation in a row were proven as well.
Flexible nets are appreciated, by designers and engineers, as a practical and economical addition
or alternative to existing classical debris flow protections.
Ten years of experience with flexible ring net barriers signify that their advantages have been
recognised and their efficiency in the field have been established. The increasing knowledge of
single barriers, barriers in a row and large scale barriers have allowed to understand the
advantages but also the limits of such a flexible debris flow barrier. This acquired knowledge is
presented in the following paper, accompanied by case studies.
More than 20 flexible ring net barriers for debris flow protection were installed in the last 20
years, in over 25 countries and have been protecting infrastructure, roads and railway tracks from
great damage. These flexible ring net debris flow barriers have been in the meantime established
as a certified European product, obtaining the CE marking. This contribution relates the
evolution of the first real scale testing barriers, leading to standardized barriers up to fully
working debris flow barrier projects. Case studies will highlight advantages and challenges of
this technology in regards to construction technics, economical aspects and its environmental
friendly characteristics.
Conclusions. Since the publication of the load design of flexible debris flow barriers and their
appropriateness tests in the Illgraben in Switzerland, many projects have been successfully
installed in the last 10 years.
Several construction details have been revised and improved. When taking into account the
hydrological processes affecting the stability of the stream banks and planning for reinforcement,
the flexible ring net systems can be considered as equivalent to classical large concrete
protection structures. To prevent steel corrosion the used flexible net system has a zinc-
aluminum coating. For more restrictive corrosion conditions, other solutions such as stainless
steel or a thicker coating layers are options for longer lifetime guarantee. Therefore, no material
disadvantage is evident compared to concrete barriers. Further, the lighter conception of the
barriers make it an unavoidable solution when easy handling, environmental requirements and
landscape protection are key issues of a project. The dimensioning concept developed at the
WSL, in use worldwide, has been verified by several filling and successfully retaining events. A
further adaptation and refining of the dimensioning concept could be achieved with more testing,
but is hampered by lack of funding.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
76
Complex Safety
Комплексная безопасность
The use carbon fiber and carbon mesh to increase the seismic resistance of masonry
building
Arkady Granovskiy1, Bulat Dzgamuev1, Oleg Simakov1, Daria Lvova1
Moscow State University js Civil Engineering. Yaroslavskoye shosse,26 Moscow 129337
One of methods of strengthening masonry is the method of external reinforcement based on
carbon fibers (FRP). To date, tests have been carried out using this method of strengthening
building elements for the effect of static loads. The next stage is testing on the natural fragments
of buildings with the dynamic application of loads corresponding to seismic effects. This
experimental study on evaluation of seismic resistance of the large-scale model of a two-story
fragment of brick building from ceramic bricks on cement mortar was conducted. The dynamic
testing of the prototype was carried out on the two-component vibroplatform, where seismic
impacts with the intensity of 7 to 9 according to MSK-64 scale were modelled. During the tests
the constant load on floors – 4,5 kH/m2 was simulated using dynamic forces to the prototype
were simulated. Different options for strengthening of load-bearing brick walls concrete blocks.
The dimensions of the two-storey fragment are 2,3x × 1,56 × 3,0 m. Using scrims from carbon
fibre the slabs at each floor were combined into a single hard disk. During the tests, the
horizontal and vertical with composite fabrics, scrims and nets, were considered. Upon the
nature of the hysteresis curves the zones of elastic performance of masonry walls at the moment
of cracks and destruction were determined. Based on the results of the tests, the optimal schemes
for strengthening brick walls using tapes, canvases and nets made of carbon fiber were
determined. The possibility of increasing the disk stiffness of floor slabs (an important
component of the overall seismic resistance of buildings and structures, which is usually not
given enough attention) has been proven in the course of these tests. It was concluded that a
sufficient level of reliability of the method of strengthening the brickwork with composite
materials based on carbon fibers (tape, mesh, fabric) while increasing the seismic resistance of
buildings and structures.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
77
Operational forecasts to minimize the natural and man-made risks of hazardous
geological processes
Irina Malneva Highland Geophysical Institute, Russia, Nalchik, Lenin ave., 2
In connection with the recent global increase in natural disasters, including those associated with
manifestations of hazardous geological processes (landslides, mudflows, erosion, and others), the
task of ensuring the sustainable development of active economic development areas, minimizing
their losses from the negative effects of these processes. At the same time, their prediction
becomes most important. Both long-term forecasts and, especially, operational forecasts, which
will allow for a few days, even hours, to warn of a possible danger matter. To identify the main
trends in the development of processes and rapidly changing factors, their substantial links with
solar activity were previously taken into account. Currently, there is a deep minimum of 24
cycles of solar activity, with virtually no spots on the sun. Reliable predictions of changes in
solar activity is currently not available. Therefore, the current trend in the development of
hazardous geological processes is now advisable to determine on the basis of the development
trend of the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere, which N.K. Kononova and the
author in a large number of publications (website www.atmospheric-circulation.ru).
To obtain the necessary data for operational forecasts. Hazards of mudflows, landslides and other
geological processes should be analyzed by analyzing some indicators of the parameters of
physics of solar-terrestrial relations depending on episodic manifestations of the activity of
processes on the Sun. First of all, it is the plasma velocity of the solar wind in near-Earth space
and the density of protons in it. The solar wind is the main agent through which active processes
in the Sun affect the state of near-Earth space, the geomagnetic field and the near-surface region
of the Earth. This is an additional source of energy in the development of natural processes. The
main parameters of the plasma of the geoeffective solar wind near the Earth's orbit have the
following characteristic values: speed 300–800 km/s and more; the proton concentration is most
often 0.1 to 10 cm3. The largest amplitudes of bursts of solar wind velocity values, reaching up
to 1,800 km/s and more.
The speed of the solar wind during the formation of catastrophic natural processes, as established
by us on the basis of the analysis of many catastrophes, is very high (more than 700 km/s). For
example, with the collapse of the Kolka glacier, September 20, 2002, a catastrophic flood in
Krymsk 7.07. 2012, flooding in Tbilisi on the night of June 13-14, 2015, mudflow in the territory
of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan on 04/27/2017, breakthrough of the
lake Bashkar and catastrophic mudflow along the valley of river Adylsu (Northern Caucasus) on
the night of September 1, 2017.
The indicated indicators of space weather (plasma velocity of the solar wind and its density)
should be used to refine the operational forecasts of hazardous geological processes (with a
possible lead time of 2 to 3 days and up to a week).
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
78
How to neutralize biopathogenic and technopathogenic radiation on humans
Anatolii Pavlenko Open International University of Human Development "Ukraine”, Kyiv, UA, 03115
Fresh fears have been raised over the role of mobile phones in brain cancer after new evidence
revealed rates of a malignant type of tumour have doubled in the last two decades. Techno
pathogenic effect - a set of factors and processes that have any kind of negative effect or impact
on living organisms resulting from scientific and technological progress of mankind.
This is a summary of ideas and methods for protecting the public from the negative impact of
electronic technology. While conducting research, the author tried to clearly define the
prevailing negative impact on living of torsion fields (TF) in comparison with electromagnetic
radiation. Electromagnetic fields warm the tissues of a person using all sorts of gadgets, while
torsion fields affect the gene level. Much attention is paid to the technology of protection from
torsion fields.
American biologists drew attention to this phenomenon, calling such radiation "nonclassical
electromagnetic radiation". The specific absorption rate (SAR) is considered as an official
standard for measuring the effects of electromagnetic radiation (EMR) from mobile phones on
human brains.
However, the biologists do not consider SAR measurements as an accurate representation of
mobile phone EMR effects on the human brain in real life. As an alternative of SAR the
increasing number of scientists uses the biological systems for evaluation of harmful effects of
mobile phone EMR. In the above-mentioned works the positive moment is a reference to "non-
classical" electromagnetic fields though their physical nature has not been disclosed. In our
opinion the "non-classical" electromagnetic fields are torsion fields
We need to convey to people the truth about the impact of electronic technology on the living.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
79
Issues of food security in terms of minimizing natural risks
Nigora Talipova
Russian University of Economics named Plekhanov G.V., Tashkent Branch
The risk estimate of excessive food dependence is, as a rule, expert probabilistic in nature, and
involves the anticipation of possible negative situations, which, in turn, necessitates the
development and implementation of effective measures and mechanisms to prevent or mitigate
their consequences.
The article envisages the issues of influence of natural risks and acts on food security. And this
problem is further increased by climate change. Over the past decade, natural disasters and
natural acts in developing regions have affected more than 1.9 billion people and caused an
estimated damage of nearly half a trillion US dollars. In this respect, the agricultural sector
absorbs approximately 22 per cent of the total economic damage caused by these natural
disasters, which undoubtedly affects the sector’s ability to maintain food security.
A wide range of sophisticated risk management models are being deployed at the continental,
national and local levels to provide funding for government emergency plans and to insure
farmers in case of severe drought or other natural disasters.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
80
Holistic Approach to Phytomonitoring in the System of Ecological Safety of Urban
Areas
Irina Glinyanova
Volgograd State Technical University, 400005, Volgograd, Russia
For the purpose of ecological risk assessments in urban agglomerations phytomonitoring is used
quite often. The scientific research analysis on the monitoring of leaf plates of woody plant
forms in various countries revealed that many researchers evaluate the quality of the urban
environment using passive urban biomonitors (plant leaves).Environmental monitoring is a
subdivision of the environmental safety system. Studies of fine dust on the plant leaves, the
dispersed and chemical composition of dust particles as well as the material and element-by-
element composition of leaf plates as a whole, allow to conclude on the environmental situation
in the test area and predict the development of environmental risks for the local population.
The majority of the conducted studies focus on plants response to the technogenic pollution of
urban areas while natural pollution has not been not studied in a proper way. There are attempts
by some researchers to identify in some urban plants natural pollutants, for example, radon and
its decay products, etc. There are studies that analyze the contamination of the territory in terms
of both natural and man-made loads in urban areas, for example, from the standpoint of the
geochemical characteristics of the elemental composition of poplar leaves. However, the
presented studies fail to properly disclose the whole range of natural and man-made pollution
sources and lack a comprehensive approach to this issue. In view of this, the author in this article
makes an effort to present an integrated, systematic - holistic approach to the phytono-
monitoring of urban areas which would allow to take into account and evaluate all ranges of the
urban environment pollution in order to predict the maximum possible environmental risks for
the population, the rapid development of environmental measures to reduce them. A holistic
approach to environmental science was formulated as early as the beginning of the twentieth
century. It attached "great importance to the concept of the "whole" but not to its component
parts". In view of this, the author reveals the methodological basics of a holistic approach
applied to phytomonitoring in the system of ecological safety of urban areas, systematizes the
types of possible contamination with dust particles.By way of example the author provides the
study of the dispersed and chemical composition of fine dust on apricot trees leaves (Prúnus
armeníaca), as well as the chemical composition of apricot trees leaves (Prúnus armeníaca) in
low-rise buildings in the Sredneahtubinsky district of the Volgograd oblast. The author
concludes on presence in plant leaves of pollutants from sources of man-made and natural
factors, environmental risks are predicted and environmental measures are proposed to improve
the population quality of life and the safety of urban areas.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
81
Development of cooperation of NIS countries for mitigation of natural and
technological risk
Nadira Mavlyanova Institute of Environmental Geoscience, 101000, Moscow, Russia
Subsequent the Soviet Union included 15 states: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Estonia,
Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. All of them had unified political and economic system
during 69 years (from 1922 to 1991). After the collapse of the USSR, on the territory of the
previously united country, was formed 15 independent states, respectively new boundaries were
formed, and existing environmental problems have become cross-border. Recently, a feature of
the post-Soviet model of cross-border cooperation is, in one hand, cultural-historical proximity
of the countries participating, on the other hand – economic and political differences that
require from neighbouring countries considerable effort.
The need of cooperation for enhancing geo-environmental security in the post-Soviet area is
becoming stronger to meet common issues of prevention and liquidation of emergency situations
and disasters of natural and technogenic character. In this situation, it is absolutely necessary to
establish regional organizations and integration associations to solve common problems
including the formation of single assessment methods of social and economic risks. Scientific
experience of our days shows that the preventing of natural disasters is one of the most
important destabilizing factor, resisted to a normal development of humanity. Earthquakes,
floods, volcanoes, tsunamis, droughts caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.
Meanwhile, natural disasters have no national boundaries and can span several countries and
their consequences are getting trans-border character.
The development of integration processes between the countries-participants of the former
USSR has been a process with several stages and multiple projects. There are several
international and regional organizations created on the post-Soviet territories: the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Eurasian economic Union (EEU), and
Organization of collective security Treaty (CSTO).
Taking into account the transborder character of natural disasters, the adequate assessment and
reduction of the existing level of natural hazard require the joint international coordinated work
of scientists, engineers, economists, sociologists, design and planning organizations, various
levels of government, international organizations, and national ministries of emergency
situations and their field units, including the coordination of efforts in hazardous areas along
national borders. It will make possible to identify and map the areas with the largest risk level,
as well as to develop an effective system. The scientific collaborative links between the research
scientific institutions of the independent countries were broken or become inefficient.
Development of a harmonized approach to assessment of natural hazards, vulnerability
classification, preparedness for mitigation of consequences of natural disasters, ensuring safety
of the population is considering as one of the principal goals of the cross-border collaboration.
The geological features of this vast region determine the probability of occurrence of most types
existing natural disasters with catastrophic social-economic damages. The cross-border
cooperation is essential to deal with the hazardous seismic threat, floods, landslides, pollution of
surface and ground water because natural hazards have no boundaries.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
82
Comprehensive assessment of the natural and man-made safety of Siberian regions
Vladimir Moskvichev1,2 1Institute of computational technologies SB RAS,660049, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
2Siberian Federal University,660041, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
The problem of a comprehensive study of the environment and the technosphere safety is
particularly relevant for the Siberian Federal District (SFD) of the Russian Federation, taking
into account its strategic position and great economic importance. Analysis of potential sources
of accidents and catastrophes, estimated areas of damaging factors impact and the number of
people living in these areas, allowed to classify the territories of SFD subjects by degree of
danger.
SFD includes a number of industrial regions characterized by the presence of potentially
dangerous, critical and strategically important facilities with functionally complex and highly
hazardous production systems. The complex of these plants and factories increases the
likelihood of various accidents and man-made disasters, characterized by both explicit (risks of
emergencies) and hidden (environmental pollution) threats to the life and health of the
population. Reduction of the territorial development risks ensures a more stable functioning of
the Siberian Federal District territories and will minimize the costs of eliminating the
consequences of emergencies and disasters. Strategic and regional planning for the sustainable
development of industrial regions should be ensured by achieving an acceptable level of risk.
This work has identified and analyzed the main types of hazards to which large regions of
Siberia are exposed. The analysis and assessment of the complex risks of the Siberian Federal
District industrial regions (Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Kemerovo Region, the Irkutsk Region
and the Novosibirsk Region) was carried out. According to the research results, a project of
guidelines for assessing the territorial risks of municipalities with the definition of basic risks,
their actual and regulatory values has been developed.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
83
Caring of the shape of change in our landscape: from hydrological context into
landscape planning one
Bahman Amiri1, 2 1Visiting Professor, Chinese Academy of Science, NIGLAS, Nanjing, China 2Associate Professor, University of Tehran, Faculty of Natural Resources, Iran
Emerging challenge within water science communities on how and to what extent inspiring the
concepts from landscape ecology might direct them in re-defining the traditional concepts in
hydrology in a more tangible manner, could be associated by increasing the number of works in
this new arena. Hence, it is of significant importance to know to what extent the structure of
landscape would influence on hydrological responses. It should be noted that lag time is
accounted as one of the most important responses, as having known it as well as possible,
managing the watershed of our interest would conducted in a more wise manner upon occurrence
of pollutants releases.
In order to indicate how our well-documented knowledge in hydrology might be faced with
challenge in the landscape hydrology, three hydrological responses, including flood magnitude,
time of concentration and lag time have been examined using the structural features of landscape
at 39 catchments in the southern basin of the Caspian Sea. This study has been investigated
relationship between these three hydrological responses and landscape metrics (shape index,
fractal dimension index, perimeter-area ratio, related circumscribing circle, and contiguity index)
for land use/land cover (LULC), hydrologic soil groups (SHGs) and geological permeability
classes (GPCs).
The regression-based models for lag time (0.68 ≤ r2 ≤ 0.80), those of time of concentration (0.40
≤ r2 ≤ 0.89), and flood magnitude (0.69 ≤ r2 ≤ 0.84) indicated that the hydrological responses
could be explicitly predicted by applying average values of the related circumscribing circle,
fractal dimension, perimeter-area ratio and shape indices for the landscape categories, hydrologic
soil groups and geologic permeability classes of the catchments. The findings also indicated that
shape-related features including but not limited to regularity, irregularity, and elongation, which
are measured by the landscape metrics, of the patches of landscape classes, hydrologic soil
groups, and geological permeability classes can standalone be applied in explaining total
variations in the flood magnitude, time of concentration and lag time of the catchments.
Hence, we should be more care of how we change our landscape in the catchments, as the shape
of change in the catchment landscape will influence on how the catchment of interest behave in
face of natural event such as a rainfall.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
84
Choice of innovative risk management measures at industrial facilities within
complex topography with landslide hazard
Fakhraddin Gabibov1, Arzu Zeynalov2 1Intellectual Property Agency, AZ 1001, Baku, Azerbaijan 2Azerbaijan Research Institute of Construction and Architecture, AZ 1015, Baku, Azerbaijan
Studies on risk management at sites located in areas with high landslide risk, which are based
on the General theory of risk-analysis. The system of measures with innovative resources
regulating management activities to reduce the risk at the facilities within the complex terrain
with landslide hazard is proposed. The technique of definition of integral risk taking into
account the principle of integrated assessment of danger at implementation of administrative
actions for risk reduction on the objects located in a zone of high landslide danger is offered. A
calculation formula is proposed to determine the effect of the introduction of innovative
engineering measures to reduce risk at sites located in areas with high landslide danger. This
takes into account the indicators of both individual and social risk.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
85
The main economic and administrative barriers affecting a high level of risks in the
commercialization of innovations
Fakhraddin Gabibov, Aydin Huseynov
Intellectual Property Agency, AZ 1001, Baku, Azerbaijan
In Azerbaijan, the commercialization of innovations began to develop intensively from the end
of the 19th century in connection with the development of the oil-extracting and oil- refining
industries. The main sources of innovative technologies are analyzed. Further the period of
development of innovative technologies during the Soviet period, i.e. the 30th – 80th years of
the 20th century with the limited innovative development in the defense, oil- field and chemical
industries is considered. At the same time, promotion of technical innovation is noted as a
positive moment, but also inhibiting factors of bureaucratic red tape and the accumulation of
environmental problems could be mentioned. Since the 90th years of the 20th century, after the
collapse of the USSR and gaining independence, Azerbaijan has moved away from the socialist
planned innovation system, without trying to preserve positive components of this system.
System analysis shows the commitment of the republic's leaders in the organization and
implementation of western countries approaches when commercializing of technological
innovations, but at the same time the economic, managerial, administrative barriers affecting
the preservation of a high risk level at the implementation of perspective innovations come to
light.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
86
Assessing the impact of environmental tax revenue on environmental pollution in
European countries
Valdemaras Makutėnas
Vytautas Magnus University, Faculty of Bioeconomy Development, Lithuania
Policy-makers in all countries have been looking into environmental taxation and environmental
taxes as one of the main methods to address global warming and rapidly increasing pollution in
their countries (Morley, 2012). This also helps increase the state budget revenues, which calls for
verification of whether these taxes actually perform the functions they are originally supposed to
perform. Importance of environmental taxes is defined as the capacity of environmental taxes to
perform their functions and implement the respective goals, such as reduction of environmental
pollution through increase of the environmental protection related tax rates (OECD, 2000).
Research aim: to assess the effect of environmental taxes on the environmental protection and
compare it to the selected European countries.
Research methodology:
The following variables suggested by the foreign researchers to be included into the econometric
model for assessment of the factors that have effect on variation of revenues from environmental
taxes have been selected for the research:
Environmental taxes (ET) – percentage share of environmental protection related taxes in GDP,
% (dependent variable);
Independent variables: GDP – GDP per capita, EUR; Energy Saving (ES) – energy saving for
primary energy consumption, thous. tonnes of oil equivalent; SO2 – sulphur oxide emissions,
tonnes; Waste (W) – municipal waste per capita, kg; Renewable energy (RE) – generation of
primary renewable energy, tous. tonnes of oil equivalent; Regulation quality (RQ) – regulation
quality indicator: – 2.5 (low) to 2.5 (high); Environmental protection expenditure (EPE) –
environmental protection expenditure per capita, EUR.
Conclusions:
The correlation analysis has suggested that GDP per capita, environmental protection
expenditure, generation of renewable energy and SO2 emissions have the strongest and
statistically significant relationship across the European countries, i.e. the share of revenues from
environmental taxes in GDP tends to vary in case of variation of these factors. Meanwhile,
energy saving, amount of waste and regulation quality have slightly weaker correlation
relationship compared to other variables in the European countries. Moreover, in view of the
coefficients of the multivariate regression model, GDP per capita has been found to have the
greatest and most significant effect in Lithuania, same as all other European countries.
Generation of renewable energy and SO2 emissions also have strong effect in Lithuania. On the
other hand, in other countries, environmental protection expenditure (Germany, Sweden,
Norway) and energy saving (Estonia and Denmark) have shown particularly strong effect.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
87
Factors affecting crop insurance: the case of Lithuania
Daiva Makutėnienė Vytautas Magnus University, Faculty of Bioeconomy Development
Universiteto str.10-315, 53361 Akademija, Kaunas distr., Lithuania
Due to the specificity of agricultural activity (dependence on natural and climatic conditions,
high seasonality of production and market cycles, peculiarities of assets used in production, long
production cycle and slow capital turnover, environmental constraints on activity, regulation and
volatility of political provisions and other factors), this sector of the economy has a higher
degree of risk compared to other economic activities. On the other hand, the adverse effects of
global climate change and other phenomena in recent years have resulted in a dramatic increase
in the damage caused by meteorological phenomena to agricultural entities. Therefore, there is a
need for search of effective techniques and means for risk management and protection against
potential loss caused by these phenomena. One of them is the insurance of agricultural plants and
crops, which provides protection against the dangers of meteorological phenomena and thus
helps to ensure the yield of crop farms, the stability of economic activity, preserve their vitality
and encourage farmers to engage in business risk management.
After data (2008–2018) analysis of crop insurance development in Lithuania, it can be assumed
that the positive development of crop insurance exists, and even though crop insurance is not
evenly divided throughout the country, the amount of policyholders, area of insured crops and its
share, the insured area by one person and insurance package supply is increasing, moreover
country’s and EU financial support for compensations of crop insurance contributions. At
present, cereal, maize, potato, sugar beet, legume, oil and fiber crops are prohibited in Lithuania.
In order to protect crops from meteorological risks, farmers can choose one of five mutual
insurance packages offered by “VH Lietuva”: protection against hail; protection against hail,
storm, rain; protection against hail, storm, rain, frost; protection against hail, storm, rain, natural
drought; packages for protection against hail, storm, rain, frost, natural drought. Survey shows
that the major factors which restrict crop insurance are bad economic situation, financial
inefficiency, not satisfying conditions for crop insurance and loss management system, low
reimbursement rates for insurance and excessive bureaucracy. Farmers indicate these fostering
factors for crop insurance: reduction of insurance contributions, higher contributions for
compensations, more flexible insurance conditions, simpler procedures of reimbursement of
contributions, better financial situation.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
88
Risks and opportunities of the cross-border e-Commerce development in the context
of the new customs legislation of the Eurasian Customs Union and the Russian
Federation
Irina Rudaya1, Boris Anikin2 1 P.G. Demidov Yaroslavl State University, 150003, Yaroslavl, Russian Federation 2State University of Management, 109542, Moscow, Russian Federation
The advanced development of e – Commerce is one of the global trends of the XXI century.
Cross-border e-commerce has opened up new opportunities for many people and companies
around the world as it does not restrict a buyer and a seller to the national framework, promotes
the development of new needs and the spread of innovation, and stimulates price reduction in the
interests of the consumer. This is the fastest growing market, the total volume of which can reach
a trillion dollars only in the B2B sector by 2020.
However, the availability of cross-border e-Commerce is ultimately determined by the capacity
of national logistics systems that support the physical movement of goods. Longer delivery time
or higher delivery prices decrease the efficiency of cross-border e-Commerce and hinder the
improvement of the population’s life quality. One of the risk factors is the low efficiency of
customs clearance procedures when goods arrive at the place of delivery. The subject of the
study is an analysis of this group of risks and opportunities for improvement of the efficiency of
logistics of cross-border e-commerce in the context of the new customs legislation of the
Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Russian Federation.
The results of the study show general trends in the development of the international logistics
market in Russia and are of interest to producers and sellers in the market of cross-border e-
Commerce who use the services of logistics providers and are interested in improving the
efficiency of delivery processes and the development of the Russian market.
The basis of the processes security is established in the WCO Cross-Border E-Commerce
Framework of Standards which offers two main solutions: Simplified Clearance Procedures and
Expanding the Concept of Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) to Cross-Border E-Commerce.
The customs legislation of the EAEU and the Russian Federation provides for the simplification
of customs clearance procedures for express cargo and the introduction of the institution of
Authorized Economic Operator.
The problems of practical implementation of the de-risking tools include a low integration of the
Russian logistics system, in particular, into the global system of international logistics services,
administrative barriers, and the lack of common standards for the use of data for customs
purposes. To date, Russia has not found an effective solution for the single-window system. The
specificity of the requirements of the Russian customs prevents the international logistics
business from cooperation in the field of customs affairs.
Further penetration of ‘door-to-door’ and ‘express’ logistics delivery solutions deep into the
region opens the door to new opportunities for participants in the market of cross-border e-
Commerce. A qualitative change in the international logistics market is possible with the
development of a wide network of AEO in Russia; the efforts of the international and Russian
business should be aimed at promoting the cooperation with a view of development of this
opening services sector.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
89
The environmental component of the integrated security of the Caspian
macro-region
Anna Fedotova, Lyudmila Yakovleva, Elena Loktionova Astrakhan State University
In modern society for the development natural living conditions are necessaryin addition to the
well-established stereotypes about the presence of high technologies in it. And the main ones are
WATER and FOOD. The development of human civilizations began where there was water
(river valleys) and conditions for growing "food" (fertile soil). History shows that such territories
are rich in natural resources and minerals. Its presence is associated with the economic good of
the region and entails the intensive development of the mining and processing industries, which
naturally puts pressure on the ecological framework of the territory.
The Caspian macro-region is unique in terms of the availability of diverse natural resources
(biological resources, minerals, hydrocarbons, fresh water, natural and climatic conditions). The
region has “three whales” and the security of the macro-region plays an important role in
ensuring the security of every individual Caspian state. Despite the fact that the problems of the
Caspian region are constantly in the field of view of scientists, comprehensive studies, taking
into account the entire pool of problems and regional aspects, have practically not been carried
out on this issue.
The main goal of the research is to develop the integrated security system that takes into account
the interrelation and interaction of a whole complex of factors that are a necessary condition for
preserving and further developing it on the basis of large-scale comprehensive scientific research
on the current state of the Caspian macro-region.
The Astrakhan region is one of the three regions of the Russian Federation with direct access to
the Caspian Sea,there for all the problems associated with the Caspian macro-region are top
priorities for it. Tourist flows, economic factors, new pipelines and logistics systems, turns in
international relations are largely related to the ecology of the region. The balance in the Caspian
macro-region is associated with the ecological state and population size of various flora and
fauna species. Talking about the natural balance in this perspective does not make sense, since
the ecological situation, and hence biodiversity, is largely determined by the legislation of a
single state of the Caspian coast.
The long-term research of the scientists of the Astrakhan State University allowed us to more
fully assess the evolution of the delta landscapes of the Russian part of the Caspian basin. On the
basis of the results obtained, the hypothesis was proposed for the main paths of evolution of the
soil and vegetation cover under the conditions of a change in the hydrological regime as a result
of transgressions of the Caspian Sea. Some methodological approaches to the study of the
mechanisms of development, assessment and diagnosis of degradation processes in soils are
substantiated, and the composite latent indicator of soil quality is constructed.
In the context of ensuring environmental safety in the Caspian Sea region, efforts should be
directed at solving two interrelated strategically important tasks.It is necessary to ensure the
proper use of the environmental and natural resources component in the region and take all
measures aimed at preserving the marine environment and the Caspian ecosystem. The
biological resources of the Caspian Sea, in contrast to the mineral and raw materials, are
renewable and they can serve people indefinitely if they are exploitedproperly.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
90
The influence of the combined effect of negative factors: heavy metals, pesticides,
radionuclides, etc. - in the soils of urban agglomerations to ensure their key
functions and ecosystem services.
Vadim Plyushchikov1, Vladimir Avdotyin2, Vladislav Plyushchikov1, Mirashraf Fatiev3
1Agrarian Technological Institute, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 2Department of Technosphere Safety Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 3Department of Landscape Design and Sustainable Ecosystems of the Agrarian-Technological Institute,
Peoples' Friendship University of Russia
The subject of the work is to take into account the influence of the combination of negative
factors (heavy metals, pesticides, radionuclides, etc.) in the soils of urban agglomerations on the
provision of their key functions and ecosystem services in order to take this factor into account
in disaster risk reduction programs of the municidal formations on the basis of predicting the
synergies of mutagenic, carcinogenic and lethal effects in the interaction of various
environmental factors. The methodology of the work is built on a risk-oriented approach within
the framework of Sendaiisk th Framework Program for Disaster Risk Reduction for 2015-2030.
The results of the work are based on a mathematical model of synergism that quantitatively
describes and interprets data on the yield of mutations and cytogenetic damage in plants, living
organisms. The results of the work complement the current level of understanding of synergistic
interactions of various environmental negative factors in the soil of urban agglomerations to
ensure their key functions and ecosystem The main result of the work is the inclusion of the
combination factor and the mutual influence of the negative factor succinctly in the list of
factors that must be taken into account when developing programs for disaster risk reduction by
municipalities. The results of this work can be used in the materials of textbooks for university
students. They can also be of interest to ecologists and make practical recommendations for
sanitation and hygiene services.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
91
Changes in the environment: Importance of long-term monitoring
Irena Ciglenečki, Milan Čanković, Jelena Dautović, Marija Marguš, Ivica Janeković Rudjer Bošković Institute, Division for marine and environmental research, Zagreb, Croatia
Long-term data sets from freshwater, estuarine and marine ecosystems provide unique
information on complex dynamics within the ecosystems themselves, especially when they
respond to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Today, they become even more
important since they play a key role in comprehensive discussions and conclusions concerning
the climatic and anthropogenic pressure. The importance of long-term research in the aquatic
environment is crucial for many reasons, such as: the interpretation of main processes within
ecosystems, detecting the occurrence of complex conditions which might be indiscernible in
short-time scale, documenting physical, chemical and biological phenomena and discovering
the complexity of interactions as well as dynamics and the population ecology. Therefore, long-
term research is an ideal basis for the evaluation and creation of legislation focused on
environmental quality and pollution control, and monitoring and prediction of climate change.
In that sense, long-term data on the ecological status of Rogoznica Lake (RL), a unique marine
system on the Adriatic coast, characterized by the occurrence of hypoxic-anoxic conditions, as
well as data on the characterization of organic matter in the northern Adriatic (NA), which are
unified and discussed within the projects of the Croatian Science Foundation SPHERE (Sulfur
and carbon dynamics in the marine and freshwater environment, IP-11- 2013-1205) and
MARRES (Rogozničko Sea Lake as a Responsive Response to Environmental Changes, IP-
2018-01-1717) are unique for the Adriatic and Mediterranean, and beyond.
Rogoznica Lake is an ideal site for monitoring changes in the environment. Long-term data
(1992-2018) indicate that the lake track climate changes that reflect in the warming, and
accumulation of toxic sulphide and ammonium in the bottom layer of the lake. Those changes
are congruent with the reports for the Adriatic, and represent a potential trigger for further, even
more severe changes, which can ultimately lead to degradation of this lake ecosystem.
Similarly, the same scenario can be expected in other similar and by climate change threatened
systems.
On the other side organic matter in the NA shows very pronounced changes in quantity and
properties. During the studied years (1990-2018), periods of high and low carbon content were
exchanged, with evident changes in reactivity relative to the content of the surface active
fraction of the organic matter. Recorded changes point to alteration of eutrophic and
oligotrophic episodes, embedded in the general trend of oligotrophy in the studied period.
Changes in organic matter properties point to changes in the northern Adriatic ecosystem,
which are mostly related to changes in predominant phytoplankton communities, in response to
changes in hydrographical conditions as a part of global changes.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
92
Risk management at the piloting stage
Yuliia Kvach National Aviation University, Kyiv, Ukraine
Air transportations are related to the risk. Risk is an objective reality, because there is no
absolutely reliable technique, and there is no person who would not be mistaken. Reducing the
risk of aviation events that is bringing it to an acceptable level is a key component of the aviation
safety management system.
The normative and technical documentation emphasizes the need for a systematic solution to the
problem of managing flight safety.
It is proposed to identify potential risks through modeling in the MATLAB environment, so that
in case of necessity to toke measure for reduction of occurrence probability of aviation event due
to a management by reliability of the light-signal providing.
The toolkit is created using the MATLAB interface to determine the visual search of the obstacle
visibility designated both by marking and illumination by stationary lights of the corresponding
colors and intensity in such a way as to satisfy both the pilots and the population, depending on
the indication in the field of input data:
1. the coordinates (X, Y, Z) and the angles (V, G) of the location of the light-signal fires on
the obstacles;
2. photometric data of light-signal fires by calling ies-files of the respective fires;
3. the coordinates of the observer's location with respect to the obstacles marked with light-
signal fires for determining the length of the trajectory between the light emitter and the receiver;
4. parameters characterizing the complexity of meteorological conditions with pointing of
the background brightness (Lf), atmospheric transparency and meteorological distance of
visibility (MDV).
The created toolkit allows to get:
− illumination, taking into account the cosine dependence created by aerodrome fires at the
pupil of the observer (E0);
− illumination on the Allard, which is created by light-signal fires at the observer's pupil
(EA);
− total illumination produced by light-signal fires at the observer's pupil (E) with the
definition of its minimum, average and maximum values;
− probabilities of observation of light-signal lights (R);
− evaluation of the risk of an aviation event occurrence;
− graphic image of illumination from each light-signal fire;
− graphic image of radiation orientation of light-signal fires.
The simulation result of the effect of the atmosphere transparency, the coordinates and the angles
of the location of the light-signal fires on the obstacles, will help to determine the quantitative
significance of the risk of an aviation event occurring during the piloting stage, which will allow
to evaluate its acceptability and, if necessary, take measures to reduce it.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
93
On the causes and consequences of cognitive distortions in assessing the significance
and role of civilization factors in risk and safety management
Vladimir Avdotin1, Aleksandr Kononov2, Vadim Plyushchikov1, Julia Avdotina3 , Vladislav
Plyushchikov1 1RUDN University, Russia, Moscow, 117198, Miklouho-Maclay’s Street , 6
2Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control" of RAS, Russia, 117312, Moscow, prospect
60-letia Octiabria, 9 3EMERCOM, Russia, Moscow, 121352, st. Davydkovskaya, 7
There is a large amount of information about the meaning of civilization for the population of
the Earth. However, in this information environment, not enough attention is paid to explaining
to people about cognitive distortions in the perception of the risk of the destruction of
civilization. Cognitive distortions - all sorts of systematic errors in thinking, as well as patterned
deviations that occur in certain situations, which are based on distorted judgments about
compliance with safety requirements. When it comes to the “human factor” as a source of
accidents and catastrophes, the root cause is cognitive distortions in people who depend on their
health and safety. The consequence of this is that many people experience cognitive distortions
in assessing the role and place of civilization, they do not understand what level of civilizational
support of a person and social structure is currently needed. What can separate regions,
countries, municipalities, each person lose in choosing and performing certain actions that are
at first glance correct and what negative consequences this may entail for the safety of human
life. As a result of cognitive distortions of people in the minds of many, they take the path of
destructive influence on society and civilization, join different groups carrying destructive
ideas. A quantitative assessment of the level of such cognitive distortions allows us to
reasonably form measures to level the impact of cognitive distortions on sustainable
development. The assessment of cognitive distortions is based on the methodology of criterion
modeling allowing to achieve the reduction and elimination of cognitive distortions in the
safety assessment. The article shows the importance of solving the problem of reducing
cognitive distortion while providing security. A description of the basic methods for
constructing structural and core-based models, methods for evaluating the fulfillment of criteria
and indicative risk assessment is given. Methods for assessing cognitive distortions, detected
and eliminated when using the methods of criterial modeling, are presented. Presents the results
of the application of these techniques on the example of different areas of activity. As a result,
it was revealed that erroneous statements about the state of security caused by cognitive
distortions averaged about one third of the total number of statements about the state of
security, and the use of criterial modeling made it possible not only to identify these distortions,
but also to eliminate them, thereby preventing the possibility of accidents and disasters due to
non-compliance with safety requirements.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
94
Disasters Resilience of Infrastructure to Natural and Human-Caused Hazards
Givi Gavardashvili
Ts. Mirtskhulava Water Management Institute of Georgian Technical University
60, Ave. I. Chavchavadze, 0169, Tbilisi, Georgia
This project has the objective of developing and introducing a national strategy and action plan
for managing risks and enhancing resilience due to natural and human-caused hazards (including
terrorism) for Georgia taking into consideration the Sendai international strategy 2015-2025
(Sendai City, Japan) on the reduction of natural and human-caused hazards including ecological
terrorism.
The project will also examine potential improvements in practices by governmental and non-
profit non-governmental organizations connected with risk management in order to create an
effective, integrated and consistent national planning practices and responses concerning the risk
management and resilience enhancement, including prevention, neutralization and recovery, of
natural and human-caused hazards.
− Hazard Analysis - In this task, hazards will be identified as they relate to infrastructure
with special attention to dam failure caused by the natural disasters and terrorist attack;
− Resilience and Risk Management Framework - The Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk
Analysis (CAPRA) Model, which provides a quantitative approach for all-hazard risk
analysis (Ayyub et al. 2007) will be used as a basis for a framework with updates based
on resilience related methods as provided by Ayyub (2013 and 2015);
− Inundation Analysis - in this task, we will study extreme waves in the reservoir formation
and flow hazard forecasting, mathematical modeling based on the theory of non-small
amplitude waves ripple boundary between the two (2D) and three (3D) dimensional
mathematical models and numerical formulation of the solution;
− Impact and Consequence Analysis - In this task, we will examine methods and principles
to assess the impacts to populations in the South Caucasus region in terms of the quality
of life using statistical development by using social survey of these populations;
− Recovery and Resilience - In this task, recovery will be studied for the purpose of
enhancing resilience;
− Risk and Resilience Management - The focus of this task is on risk reduction and
enhancing resilience. Strategies will identified relating to dams.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
95
Zalomka-Underground Stream And Eastern Hercegovina Soils
Vesna Tunguz1, Ljiljana Nesic2, Otilija Miseckaite2 1University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Agriculture, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina
2University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia
3Aleksandra s Stulginskis University, Akademija, Lithuania
The land is one of the basic natural resources, and as a natural good in function in plant
production for food production.
The territory of the Republic of Srpska is divided into two river basin districts: 1. River Sava
basin with rivers: Una, Vrbas, Ukrina, Bosna, Drina, and 2. The regional river basin of the
Trebišnjica river consists of river basins: the Trebišnjica basin and the Neretva basin. Gacko
and Nevesinje field is a karst field and is virtually the only oasis of arable land in the region
studied. Nevertheless, nothing significant has been done in this area over the past decade to
protect land resources from damage and permanent destruction.
The entire area of the Gacko and Nevesinje fields has a karst character and is scarce with
surface watercourses, especially in the summer months. Zalomka is underground stream. It
springs at the Gacko field, and in the upper stream it is also called Djeropa. Zalomka stretches
across the Nevesinje field and it springs in numerous sinks. During the dry period, Zalomka
gets dry, while in the humid, rainy, period it is richer in water. Watercourses in this area are
particularly full in the spring after snow melting. When the time of the drought occurs
afterwards, only the deepest sinks remain for a long time filled with water. So the sink of
Zalomka has got always water in its middle course and makes it one of the most important
summer water reservoirs.
During the studied area, two profiles of fluvial soil were open, and profile no. 13 represents the
fluvial soil of the studied area (Gradina site).
The construction of the reservoirs Nevesinje and Zalomka on the river Zalomka (whose waters
flows in underground stream towards spring of Buna and Bunica) will also provide protection
form the floods of the now endangered, primarily, agricultural areas of the Gacko and
Nevesinje Fields.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
96
Adaptation of the method of rapid analysis of liquid packaged products for
recognition of counterfeit alcohol
Vladimir Belozerov1, Vyacheslav Vorotilov2, Pavel Obukhov1
1Don State Technical University, 344003, Russia, Rostov-on-Don,
2JSC "Scientific and Technical Enterprise AVIATEST", 344006, Russia, Rostov-on-Don
The report presents the results of the analysis of methods and means of quality control of
packaged liquid alcoholic products and identification of counterfeit products, which indicate that,
despite the fact that manufacturers protect their products against counterfeiting, the volumes of
counterfeit products do not decrease, and the number of deaths from alcohol substitutes is more
than half all poisoning. At the same time, the statistics of «Rospotrebnadzor» indicate that
counterfeit accounts for more than one third of all alcoholic beverages sold.
Based on the analysis of regulatory and technical documents of food products, an important part
of which is the recipe, as well as methods for testing alcoholic products for their identification
and compliance with standards and technical conditions of production, we selected a method of
weight impedance spectroscopy and a number of patents of the Russian Federation, which
developed the model of express analysis of alcoholic beverages.
Ways to adapt the method of weight impedance spectroscopy for alcoholic beverage products are
proposed, on the basis of which, in the course of further research of a number of alcoholic
products, their similarity criteria will be determined, allowing to identify both the product and its
quality, as well as the cover-sensor and portable automated express complex control of packaged
alcoholic beverages, without opening the container.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
97
Integrate management of water reservoirs problems
Lia Matchavariani, Giorgi Metreveli, Zaza Gulashvili Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, 0128, Tbilisi, Georgia
Within the projects, financed by National Scientific Foundation of Georgia, our studied connect
with necessity of creation and operation of water reservoirs. The development of hydroelectric
power creates serious conflicts in coastal security and population safety, that is caused by the
need to create reservoirs on the mountainous rivers. The dam of water reservoir blocks sediment
stream that is necessary to protect the coastline. In addition, accumulated material in the
reservoir gradually raises tributary channels, thus increasing the likelihood of devastating
catastrophic floods of communities and infrastructure. In Georgia this problem had worsened
since the construction of cascades of reservoirs on Chorokhi river and its tributaries. These hydro
power plants will withhold river sediments for centuries, eventually destroying the coastline and
threatening settlements. To avoid development of such events it was necessary to create a
method that would simultaneously save the environment from destruction and provide significant
financial benefit. Because of that it was necessary to find out the sedimentation rate of the
reservoir and to study the space-time dynamics of its silting prism. The two-year natural
experiment was arranged on three small mountainous very sedimental rivers. The findings of the
field examinations of these experiments and of operational reservoirs are generalized in the
conclusions: The formation of silting prism continues until river produces an "equilibrium
channel". Its inclination allows to transport sediment to the lower basins; The silting prism
consists of the main part and the tail end. The first one is in the reservoir, the second is its
continuation in the slopes; The volume and length of the silting prism are 1.5 times higher than
the design parameters of the reservoir; The most effective way to minimize the consequences of
hydro dam is to continually remove beach-maker sediments via the quarry system.
As for the assessment of the impact of reservoirs on the Environment and public safety, it is
planned to develop the methods to assess the negative impacts of water reservoirs and identify
the ways to prevent or mitigate them. A new type of a mathematical expression to calculate the
probability of the impact of water reservoir on the population and infrastructural safety will be
used for the first time. The impact of the water reservoir on the climate will be evaluated on the
background of ongoing climate fluctuations by using analog and mathematical statistical
methods. The impact of the water reservoir on the sea coastal zone will be evaluated by using the
drift balance method used to determine the annual drift volume and identify the ways to
eliminate the deficit. The impact of the water reservoir on the ground water volume and regime
will be evaluated by using the filtration and water reservoir water balance methods, which can be
adapted to concrete water reservoirs by means of monitoring of filtered water. Considering the
fact that to date, there is no method to assess the probability or risks of the safety of the headrace
population and infrastructure, a method of “predicting the balance bed” will be developed, which
can be used to evaluate the hazards of heightening the beds of the tributaries.
For the first time in the national and international practice, the complex methods, allowing
avoiding wrong decisions when selecting a water reservoir location and type of regulation and
location of the settled areas will be developed. The obtained results will serve as a basis for the
new modernized method to calculate the volume of the boundary water reservoir silting and
duration of exploitation.
Acknowledgements. This work was supported by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation
of Georgia (SRNSFG) [FR-18-009].
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
98
Experience of applying space technology in minimizing the risk of natural and
teсhnological disasters in Azerbaijan
Ramiz Mamedov1, Khosiyat Ismatova2, Natavan Jafarova1
1ANSA Baku Azerbaijan 2National Aviation Academy, Baku, Azerbaijan
Aerospace monitoring of ecologically dangerous risks for population and territories is an
effective mechanism of control to prevent extreme situations and minimize their consequences.
In Azerbaijan first experiments were obtained while participating in projects to combat
desertification, creating cadaster of polluted manufacturing wastes of lands, monitoring of
floods, actions of mud volcanoes, dynamics of coastal zones while changing the level of Caspian
sea, leakage of oil on marine surface, preserving national parks, evaluating social-economic
development of territories.
Absheron peninsula of Azerbaijan is a densely populated territory, but both on land and coastal
territories works on drilling to extract, refining and transporting oil have been conducted. Thus, it
is important to pay attention to developing and deploying technologies of preventative evaluation
and early diagnosis of consequences of soil, marine and environmental pollution. Currently,
space and geoinformation technologies play an important role where one of the major ways is to
create digital model of terrain and land (DMT and DML), geoinformation analysis of spatial
information both as space and on land measurement. Here we represent informational analytical
system of spatial information of Absheron peninsula, which includes digital models of lands,
terrain, geomorphology, desertification, polluted lands, dynamics of coastal zones, land usage,
social-economic situation.
Another not less important problem is an issue of preventing floods, landslides, mudflows and
evaluating their consequences. According to space pictures from different times, it is possible to
track zones of floods from last years, evaluate flood hazard zoning, model zoning and direction
of floods based on digital models of terrains. In the mountainous territories of three digital
models of terrain allow to consider slopes, exposition, curvature of slopes and other
geomorphological parameters to evaluate landslide and mudflow hazards. By using data of
satellite Azersky, we supply data basis of digital models of terrains and lands for various
territories of Azerbaijan.
In order to study an influence of natural and technological disaster hazards on safety of
population, data on social-economic development of territories play an important role. In this
area works on creating maps of modern socio-economic development of territories, demography,
health, education, manufacturing and agriculture are also conducted.
Thus, created digital models of territories of Azerbaijan may serve as timely, operational and
necessary information to respond quickly to extreme situations, evaluation of consequences and
prediction of risk occurrence.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
99
About the condition of physical stability of the Mingechevir dam
Emil Gafarov, Seymur Mammadov Department of Emergency Situations and Human Life Safety
Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction
In our opinion, the value of horizontal displacement of the dam ridge (ΔS) is the most significant
for the diagnosis and assessment of the safety of the Mingechaur alluvial dam. The value of the
ridge displacement, as a diagnostic parameter, characterizes well the state of the “dam-reservoir”
system and is easily controlled both quantitatively and qualitatively.
Observations show that after numerous cycles of repetitive filling of the Mingechevir reservoir
(from maximum to minimum and back), the horizontal displacements of the ridge begin to
change quasi-elastic. Wherein, the irreversible (residual) movements of the dam ridge practically
reach their maximum and their further increments are close to zero by the end of this period.
Based on this legitimacy, the state of the dam is considered normal if the following inequality
holds: ΔSres(t1) > ΔSres(t2) > ΔSres(t3) > … > ΔSres(tn) → 0,where ΔSres(t1), ΔSres(t2), and etc. -
natural values of increments of the irreversible (residual) component of horizontal displacements
at controlled points of the dam ridge in the first and subsequent cycles of operation under
pressure; t1, t2, … tn - measurement cycles in the first and subsequent years.
After the transition of the horizontal displacements of the ridge to the quasi-elastic stage (after
many years of normal exploitation), the condition of normal operation can be given the form:
ΔSrev(tn) ≈ ΔSrev(tn-1) ≈ ΔSrev(tn-2) ≈ … ≈ const, where ΔSrev (tn) ≈ ΔSrev(tn-1) and etc. - natural
values of horizontal quasi-elastic (reversible) displacements in controlled points of the ridge in
the first and subsequent years after the attenuation of irreversible displacements.
With a continuous process of changing the increments of irreversible (residual) horizontal
displacements of the dam ridge, its condition should be assessed as potentially dangerous, but
when increasing in time - as a pre-emergency.
Criterion K1, which sets the boundary between normal and potentially dangerous states in the i -
th year, is recommended as a condition: ΔSres (ti) ≈ ΔSres(ti-1) ± δ , where, δ - is the error in
measuring displacements.
As a criterion for K2, which sets the boundary between potentially dangerous and pre-emergency
states in the i-th year, the following condition can be recommended: ΔSres(ti) > ΔSres(ti-1)
Thus, the possible conditions of the dam according to precipitation are characterized by the
ratios: a) Normal: ΔSres(ti) < ΔSres(ti-1) ± δ; b) Potencially dangerous: ΔSres(ti) ≈ ΔSres(ti-1) ± δ;
c) Pre-emergency: ΔSres(ti) > ΔSres(ti-1) ± δ. Besides the procedure for comparing the measured
(calculated) indicators of mixing of the dam crest with their criterial values, the diagnostic
control includes a comparison of the measured diagnostic indicator with its predicted value. That
is, besides verifying the fulfillment (or non-fulfillment) of the above three conditions, the
diagnostic indicator should be monitored in the confidence interval predicted for the actual loads
at the time of the test: ΔSpred - δ ≤ ΔSmeas ≤ ΔSpred + δ, where, ΔSmeas - is measured
(calculated by measured) value of diagnostic indicator; ΔSpred - is the value of the diagnostic
indicator predicted for real loads and the effects of a deterministic or statistical predictive model;
Δ - permissible error of the predictive model.
Thus, the simulation of a satellite geodetic controlling system for deformations of the
Mingechevir dam, along with a system of digital water level recorders with GSM-
communication in most of the important points of the Kura River, the Ganykh River (Alazani)
and the Gabyrry River (Iori) upstream from Mingechevir dam can contribute to the establishment
of an Early Warning Center and Monitoring of the dam condition and the development of a
permanent monitoring program.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
100
Water supply and global critical infrastructure of Azerbaijan: Interdepencies and
interactions
Vugar Aliyev AMIR Technical Services LLC
Article is devoted studying of water supply infrastructure of Azerbaijan in a context of
interdependence and interaction of elements and systems of a global critical infrastructure.
Protection of critical infrastructure is extremely important for Azerbaijan, which is at war
conditions with neighboring Armenia. A critical infrastructure concerns objects and systems,
failure in which work will be reflected on health, safety and well-beings of citizens of the
country and its sustainable development as a whole.
As a case study analyzed critical infrastructure vulnerability of the Djeyranbatan water supply
system, which laid on Azerbaijan-Russian transport corridor. On the given corridor with a width
2км and length 1km, in holy place area between Zarat and Beshdam villages of Siyazan district,
are laid 11 important elements. Strong earthquake or terrorist threats, for example, explosion in a
hillside, etc., will by all means lead to destruction simultaneously several elements of a critical
infrastructure, including elements of water supply. Failure in work of critical infrastructure
anyway to be reflected on health, safety and well-beings of citizens of the country. The elements
of above mentioned critical infrastructure is managing by software. Such control systems, are
vulnerable, also to cyber-attacks.
In summary it is necessary to note, in spite of the reason, for example, earthquake, terrorist
attack, military blows and others etc., destruction of one system of a global infrastructure by all
means stimulates cascade destruction of associated elements and systems of other infrastructures.
In such narrow and dense transport corridors as Azerbaijan-Russia, restoration of ability to live
of all set demands some years of laborious work. Therefore, they need reliable system of the
prevention and protection.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
101
The global problem of natural and man-made disasters
Aliona Tihon State University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Nicolae Testemitanu",Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
The economic development of states, the welfare and health of nations are under constant threat
from natural and man-made disasters. At the same time, if in the past such phenomena were
extremely rare and their consequences were limited to individual regions or regions of one
country, then by the end of the twentieth century the situation changed radically. Natural and
man-made disasters have acquired a destructive global character, both for the economy of the
planet and for its ecology. In recent years, the number of natural hazards and large man-made
disasters has been steadily increasing.
Risks of emergency situations arising in the process of global climate change and economic
activity, pose a significant threat to the population and economic facilities. Over the past 20
years, more than 3 million people in the world have been victims of man-made and natural
disasters, and over 800 million people have suffered. Among the most devastating natural
disasters in the world are tropical storms and typhoons, as well as floods. They account for about
one third of the total number of natural disasters. Countries near ocean shores often suffer from
devastating tropical typhoons and hurricanes. For example, in Bangladesh over the past 30 years,
more than 700 thousand people have died from typhoons and hurricanes. The most destructive
typhoon occurred in November 1970, when more than 300 thousand people died in this country
and 3.6 million people were left homeless. In the remaining third, earthquakes and droughts
prevail, accounting for 9–13% of the total number of natural disasters, respectively. Earthquake
is one of the most terrible phenomena of nature. In China alone over the past four centuries (16-
20 centuries), more than 1.2 million people have died from earthquakes. Among the man-made
emergencies in the world, up to two thirds are accidents and disasters in transport.
Disaster risk assessment is a key decision element and decision making process. Speaking about
reducing risks and damage from natural and man-made disasters, it should be noted that
emergency situations cannot be completely prevented, but the risk of damage can be minimized
by timely replacement of dilapidated equipment, vehicles, buildings and structures,
implementation of monitoring systems for their operation, and strict implementation of
established work regulations and compliance with safety regulations.
An important role in reducing risks and damages is called upon to play in advance the
development of possible scenarios for the development of emergency situations and on the basis
of taking measures to reduce the danger to personnel of enterprises and the population living
near potentially dangerous objects, as well as high-quality theoretical and practical training of
personnel and emergency services for work in emergency situations.
Among man-made processes, the greatest danger is induced seismicity, waterlogging, lowering
of the Earth's surface. The problem of natural hazards and the social and material losses
associated with it are determined not only by the natural conditions of the territories, but also by
the socio-economic situation of the peoples living there. The greatest social losses are observed
in underdeveloped countries, where a high population size and its weak protection are the cause
of mass death and enormous human suffering during the development of natural disasters. In
economically developed countries, the death rate is much smaller, but the development of
dangerous phenomena here is accompanied by huge material losses.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
102
Nonlinear deformation and run-up of tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical
simulations and analytical predictions
Ahmed Abdalazeez1, Ira Didenkulova1,2, Denys Dutykh3 1Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, 12618, Tallinn, Estonia 2Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev, 603950, Nizhny Novgorod,
Russia 3Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LAMA, 73000, Chambéry, France
Evaluation of wave run-up characteristics is one of the most important tasks in coastal
oceanography. This knowledge is required as for planning coastal structures and protection
works, as for short-term tsunami forecast and tsunami warning.
The nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity in the
conjoined water basin, which consists of the constant depth section and a plane beach is studied
numerically and analytically in the framework of the nonlinear shallow water theory.
Analytically, wave propagation along the constant depth section and its run-up on a beach are
considered independently without taking into account wave reflection from the toe of the bottom
slope. The propagation along the bottom of constant depth is described by Riemann wave, while
the wave run-up on a plane beach is calculated using rigorous analytical solutions of the
nonlinear shallow water theory following the Carrier-Greenspan approach. The numerical
scheme employs the finite volume method and is based on the second order UNO2
reconstruction in space and the third order Runge-Kutta scheme with locally adaptive time steps.
The model is validated against experimental data.
Found analytically, that maximum run-up height of single waves of positive polarity on a beach
of a conjoined water basin depends on the wave front steepness at the toe of the bottom slope.
This dependence is general for single waves of different amplitudes and periods and can be
approximated by the power fit: ( )0.42
max 0 0/ /R R s s= .
This dependence is slightly weaker than the corresponding dependence for a sine wave,
proportional to the square root of the wave front steepness. The stronger dependence of a sine
wave run-up on the wave front steepness is consistent with the philosophy of N-waves.
Shown numerically, that all numerical curves for different wave amplitudes and periods, are
parallel to the analytical one. Therefore, for estimates one can use the analytical dependence on
the wave front steepness.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
103
Modeling of Processes, Assessment and Minimization of Risks
Моделирование процессов, оценка и минимизация рисков
Classification and modelling of intersystem accidents for infrastructure-complex
areas
Valery Lesnykh1, Timofeeva Tatiana2
1Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis, Moscow, Davidkovskay Str., 7, Russiaan Federation 2State Management University, Moscow, Ryazaanski Prospect, 99, Russian Federation
Actively developing over the past few decades, the process of urbanization leads to an increase
in the number of infrastructure-complex areas. At the same time, the interdependence of critical
infrastructures is increasing, which, combined with the increasing frequency and scale of
anomalous natural processes, increases the risk of intersystem accidents. Fuel and energy supply
systems play a special role in the initiation and development of intersystem accidents.
Intersystem accidents can be characterized by cascading processes and disastrous consequences.
Such accidents are characterized by a high level of socio-economic consequences, affecting
various critical infrastructures (transport, water supply, telecommunications, etc.), which
requires the development of methods and models for assessing the conditions of their occurrence
and development. Despite the large number of activities in the field of risk analysis in critical
infrastructures, to date, the problems of risk analysis of intersystem accidents have been
investigated fragmentally and, to some extent, are of a qualitative nature. In the presentation the
problem of systematization and description of intersystem accidents is considered, and also the
variant of their classification is offered. The analysis of existing approaches to modeling and
quantitative assessment of the risk of intersystem accidents is made. The results of quantitative
assessments of the development of intersystem accidents in electricity and gas supply systems
based on simulation are presented.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
104
Innovation projects risks monitoring when achieving company’s strategic targets
Elena Patrusheva1, Elena Lifanova2 1
The Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation, 150003, Yaroslavl, Russia
2 P.G. Demidov Yaroslavl State University, 150003, Yaroslavl, Russia
The strategic business efficiency management requires implementation of investment projects
which often have innovative features. The risks arising in long and difficult processes of their
development, realization and operation of project’s product are considerable. They appear to be a
deviation of projects parameters from their initial levels that decreases efficiency of the project
and prevents the customer from achieving strategic objectives. At the same time modern
strategic setup in a type of business value growth is equivalent to the project’s net present value
(NPV)), and display of risks in the form of a negative project parameters deviation does not
allow to achieve goals. In project management focused on competences of project team the
targets on creation of project’s product with sufficient quality in time at limited resources not
always coordinated with a purpose of project customer business – growth of its efficiency, are
set.
We assume that all project processes as well as processes of innovative product operation
following them demand on-time monitoring and control in order to achieve the required
efficiency level. At the same time the arising changes of innovation projects key characteristics
and also cost of the adjusting procedures have to be estimated, and the set level of projects
efficiency has to be a reference point of monitoring and regulation. Basic conditions of
risks/efficiency management are: modeling of interrelations of project parameters with the
amount of net present value, coverage of the entire project’s life cycle, information support of
monitoring carrying out. As a result of this in innovative projects risk management process it is
necessary to include adherence of the following conditions:
1. To change an approach to identification of the innovation project risks which in standards of
project management contact mainly display of external factors, but which can arise in a subsoil
of project works and relationship of project participants.
2. In standards of project management it is established that implementation of control
procedures is carried out at a management stage "organization and control of performance", and
development of corrective actions - at the stage "analysis and regulation". However at the stage
"planning" there can already be deviations of planned cost and time of works execution levels
from that of put in efficiency calculation at a stage of project initiation. It will cause
corresponding changes of their analogs in financial model of efficiency calculation - the amount
of investments and duration of an investment stage.
3. At the subsequent stages of project management, besides control of cost and time the quality
level which if decreased can cause in operation of project product the reduction of operating
income amount, becomes important characteristic of the project.
4. At the stage "organization and control of performance" the process of an innovative product
development which is often quite expensive and long-term becomes an important task of project
works monitoring. Its delay causes not only increase in duration of the project investment phase,
but also decrease in the long term of the operational results and its net present project value as a
innovative product novelty advantages loss.
5. All the deviations mentioned in previous points, as well as expenses for the actions
correcting them it is necessary to consider at regular revaluation of the project cost efficiency
level. They can reduce inadmissibly its level which limit has to be set by the project’s customer.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
105
Assessment of seismic risk in Almaty
Yeraly Shokbarov Kazakh Scientific-Research Project Institute of Construction and Architecture, Kazakhstan, Almaty, 21
Solodovnikov str, www.kazniisa.kz
Almaty (Verny, Almaty) was founded in 1867 and is currently the largest administrative,
economic and cultural center of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The territory of the city is located in
one of the most seismically active regions of Central Asia. Almaty seismogenic zone is bounded
on the South with the TRANS-ili, on the South-East to North-Kungeiskiy, in the South-West
with Kemin, in which was located the foci of strongest earthquakes. Over the past 100 years,
there have been three major earthquakes: Verny in 1887, Chilik in 1889 and Kemin in 1911. The
magnitude of the latter was close to 8.2 at an intensity in the epicenter of 10 to 11 points. As a
result of the earthquake in Verny buildings were destroyed and people were killed. In some areas
of the city formed gaps in the ground. In some places the width of the gaps was up to 1 m at a
depth of 5 m. In earthquake-prone regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan and in Almaty city, at
different times, work was carried out, according to expert estimates, seismic hazard and risk
survey of the condition of existing buildings. An expert assessment of the state of buildings in
earthquake-prone areas of Kazakhstan, carried out in 1990, showed that, for example, residential
buildings with a total area of 16.5 million m2 (19%) required seismic reinforcement; 10 million
m2 (12%) were subject to demolition. Expert assessment of buildings in earthquake-prone areas
of Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Union has not been carried out for more than thirty years.
This work was resumed in 2017. For seismic hazard and risk assessment of objects of housing
and civil purposes of Almaty was held a two-year (2017-2018g.) research work (passport) for
buildings and structures by city Almaty. In 2017, the certification covered 7027 real estate
objects in Almaty, including 6493 apartment buildings and 534 social facilities (schools,
kindergartens, hospitals, clinics). In 2018, a survey of 3169 housing and civil facilities in Almaty
was conducted, including 1683 apartment buildings, 1486 civil and public buildings
(administrative buildings, shopping centers, sports facilities, school and preschool buildings,
sanatorium buildings, recreation and tourism buildings, polyclinics). Based on the results of
certification, electronic passports of the surveyed buildings were created with an assessment of
their seismic vulnerability, an expert assessment of the economic costs of seismic reinforcement
and economic damage to social losses from the effects of possible earthquakes of different
intensity was given. As a result of certification, an electronic database on seismic vulnerability of
buildings and structures was created and work is being done to create an electronic map of
seismic risk in Almaty.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
106
Natural and industrial risk assessment and forecasting at the project phase of the
Second Severo-Muysky Tunnel
Mikhail Lebedev1, Kirill Romanevich1 1
OJSC “NIPII “Lenmetrogiprotrans”, 191002, Bolshaya Moskovskaya str., 2, Saint-Petersburg, Russian
Federation
The Severo-Muysky Tunnel (SMT) is located on the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) which is
one of the largest railways of the world with a length of 4,287 km, leading from Eastern Siberia
to the Pacific coast of the Russian Far East. The tunnel was opened for the train traffic on the
5th of December 2003 – 19 years later after the construction of remaining sections was
completed. Therefore the SMT is so called “golden link” of the BAM. The prior to the
completion of the SMT, the railway communication on this section was carried out via a
temporary bypass line through an avalanche-hazardous mountain pass through two loop
tunnels, multiple bridges and rocky lacets with slopes up to 40 ‰. The construction of the SMT
intermittently lasted 28.5 years in extremely difficult mining and geological conditions, and
also critical economic and political situation in the country. Nowadays the SMT is a complex of
the structures which includes a single track tunnel with a length of 15,343 m, an exploratory
transport and a drainage adit parallel to the main tunnel, a number of drainage galleries, vertical
shafts and shaft sidings. The depth of the mine workings reaches 1 km.
At present the cargo traffic of the BAM is constantly growing and there is a need to build a
duplicate tunnel by means of which the throughput on this section of the BAM will be greatly
increased from 16 to 100 million tons per year.
A key element of the Second Severo-Muysky Tunnel safe construction is the assessment and
forecasting of natural and industrial risk at the project phase. The main method for risk
identification here is to consider the past experience of the SMT construction: the enclosing
granite rock mass is highly burst-prone, complicated by plenty large discontinuous faults and
fractures filled with friable, thermal water saturated and soft fragmental rock with a level of
hydrostatic pressure up to 5 MPa – these circumstances were the main reasons for emergency
compression of the tunnel boring mechanisms, as well as catastrophic rushes and collapses in
faces with human losses during rock tunnelling. The presence of discontinuous structures is
determined by the SMT location in the mountain ridge of the rift basins forming the northeast
flank of the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ) – the intracontinental split of lithospheric plate developing
under the complex field of neotectonic and modern stresses. Vertical movements of the BRZ
splits reach 20 mm per year, and horizontal movements reach 17 mm per year. Thousands of
weak shocks and up to 2 strong earthquakes occur here annually according to the International
Seismological Centre. The largest of them is 1957 Muyskoye earthquake (М=7.5-7.9). It is
rated as catastrophic along the length of the surface discontinuity zone up to 25 km, vertical
displacements up to 3.3 m and the perceptibility area of over 700 km from the epicentre with 11
out of 12 intensity degrees by MSK-64. A wide range of natural risks is complemented by the
industrial impact of construction on the enclosing granite rock mass.
Risk assessment and forecasting at the project phase of the Second Severo-Muysky Tunnel will
allow choosing the optimal route for the new tunnel, to determine the construction technology
and develop preventive measures adequate to predictable risks. Due to the extreme
heterogeneity of the granite rock mass it is also necessary to perform a short-term assessment of
engineering and geological risks, detailing and updating the forecast of possible complications
ahead of the tunnel faces by means of the complex geotechnical monitoring (GTM) system
during construction.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
107
Natural and industrial risks minimization in the course of operation of Sochi
Olympic Tunnels
Mikhail Lebedev1, Vladimir Maslak1, Konstantin Bezrodny1, Yury Isaev1 1
OJSC “NIPII “Lenmetrogiprotrans”, 191002, Bolshaya Moskovskaya str., 2, Saint-Petersburg, Russian
Federation
In connection with preparations for the 2014 Winter Olympics a number of unique structures
including transport infrastructure facilities were built in Sochi, Russian Federation. Thus, there
were built 6 railway and 3 highway tunnels with about 32.5 km total length of underground
excavations on the site of combined road Adler – “Alpika-Service”.
The geological section crossed by the tunnel complexes is characterized by a large variety of
rocks which are represented by magmatic, sedimentary metamorphosed and unmetamorphosed
laminated rocks of Mesozoic age. The sections of the tunnels pass through both solid rock
masses and a large number of tectonic zones and quaternary deposits cut-ins which easily
acquire a mobile state under external influence. All advanced technologies were applied to
ensure the sustainability of the rock mass during the construction of the tunnels.
Hundreds of sensors were installed to control the stress-strain state of the “lining – enclosing
rock mass” system during the construction of the tunnels, including the structures of tunnel
support and linings. The installation of this equipment was carried out with the view that it will
be used to predict the technical conditions of the tunnels during their operation in the future.
Considering the natural risk in course of operation these engineering structures, i.e. the seismic
activity in the region, wide range of engineering-geological and hydrogeological conditions; as
well as industrial risk, i.e. the occurrence of man-made accidents, the geotechnical monitoring
system was developed and implemented as a part of the process and control system for the
operation of transport tunnels. Geotechnical monitoring consists of:
- Stress-strain state control in tunnel lining;
- Assessing the stability of the “lining - enclosing rock mass” system by the technique based on
measuring the natural electromagnetic radiation (NEMR);
- Seismic monitoring.
All test equipment installed in the linings of “Olympic” tunnels was connected to automated
geotechnical monitoring system that allows controlling the stress-strain state of lining in real
time mode.
The information from instrumentation equipment of nine tunnels goes to the monitoring servers
that are based in the highway and railway control centers where it is to be processed, visualized
and entered in the database. The most valuable in the implemented system of the geotechnical
monitoring from the point of view of the operation is the possibility to forecast the technical
conditions of the tunnel’s lining. This kind of monitoring system is the most extensive project in
the Russian Federation and has indisputable advantages over the existing instructions and
methodological recommendations for assessing the technical conditions of the transport tunnels.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
108
The challenges of sustainable solution for reducing risk levels in the Sarez lake
area, Tajikistan
Jafar Niyazov1, Mirzo Saidov2, Majid Gulayozov3, Mustafo Safarov3, Sukhbatullo Saidov4 1Institute of water problems, hydropower and ecology Academy of Sciences, Republic Tajikistan
2Research center of Geodesy and Cartography; 3Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of
Central Asia (Dushanbe); 4Tajik National University)
The article is devoted to the research and monitoring of Sarez lake, Usoy natural dam,
engineering geology, hydrographic, geophysical mapping of the study area conducted over many
years, as well as the initial results of field observations using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
on July 2018 conducted jointly by the Research Center for ecology and environment of Central
Asia (Dushanbe), Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan, Committee on emergency
situations and civil defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan and Xinjiang
Institute of ecology and geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Sarez Lake is located in Gorno-Badakhshan province of Republic Tajikistan (south-east). The
Sarez Lake formed on February 18, 1911, after a great earthquake, when the Murghab River was
blocked by a big landslide. The length of the lake is about 76 km; Average depth is 185 meters;
Maximum depth is 505 m; water surface elevation about 3263 m and about 16 km3volume of
water. Whereas the probability of breach in the Usoy dam is minimal, while the presence of a
monitoring and early warning system in the area of Sarez lake in emergency suggests an
acceptable level of risk for the population living downstream of Sarez lake.
Security of settlements located in the Murgab river valley and located below the Sarez Lake have
required an integrated and effective approach based on modern GIScience and Remote sensing
technologies. The aerial photographs of the area using UAVs were obtained for the first time in
the history of the study of Sarez Lake. The researchers carried out a lot of work on the aerial
survey of Sarez Lake adjacent to the Usoy dam, using UAVs on the area of 70 km2 with a
resolution of 20 cm and Usoy dam on the area of 10 km2 with a resolution of 10 cm. The whole
investigated area was divided into zone 102, size 0.5x0.37 km; the results (images) are placed in
the compiled Atlas.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
109
On the introduction of technical innovations to reduce risk in development of
territories with high seismicity
Fakhraddin Gabibov1, Yerali Shokbarov2, Huseyn Bayat1
1Intellectual Property Agency, AZ 1001, Baku, Azerbaijan
2Kazakh Research and Design Institute of Construction and Architecture, 050036, Almaty, Kazakhstan
3Technical University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
According to the research results, it is proposed to determine the probability of receiving damage
from an earthquake as a product of the probability of formation and realization of a negative
cause or occurrence of a negative event of a certain type and the probability of obtaining a
certain damage during an earthquake when a negative event of a certain type is realized. The
average seismic risk is considered as a product of the total probabilities based on the distribution
laws of negative causes realization and on the distribution laws of damage from the earthquake
with the implementation of negative events. The reduction of seismic risk at the implementation
of technical innovations and increase the risk in speculative approaches are graphically shown.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
110
“Green structures” as a tool for reducing the environmental risks of urban
ecosystems
Tetiana Tkachenko1, Olena Voloshkina1
1 Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Kyiv, 03037, Ukraine
Modern urbocenosis is an unstable artificial ecosystem. Under the influence of natural and
man-made factors, urbocenoses are subject of environmental, economic and social risks.
Optimal using and restoration of natural areas is one of the ways to reduce the risks of
urbocenoses, a way to increase their stability and sustainable development.
Our analysis of the state of the green areas of the city of Kiev (Ukraine) showed insufficient
planting of common areas (below the accepted standard of 20 m2 per person), as well as the
unsatisfactory condition of the territories of limited and special using. The problem is aggravated by the inability to expand green zones of the urban system due to the compacted
buildings and large zones of asphalted areas. One of the ways to solve this problem and
minimize risks is “green building”, based on environmental friendliness, energy efficiency, and care for future generations. “Green building” involves the using of “green technologies”, which
include “green structures” - “green slopes”, eco-parking, “green roofs”, vertical and front gardening. According to ISO - 14040-14043, modern construction is considered as a chain of
complex stages: raw materials extraction (1) → materials production (2) → design
(3) → construction site preparation (4) → building (5) → operation of the finished object (6)
→ reuse (7) → recycling (8). Almost at every stage of construction, it is possible to reduce the
environmental hazard by introducing “green structures”. At the first and second stages, it is
possible to reduce the intensity of the extraction of building materials through the using of plant
biopolymers and recycled materials in the production of "green structures". At the third stage,
thanks to the "green planning", you can lay in the project of facade or roof gardening. At the
sixth stage during the operation of the facility, “green structures” perform environmental,
economic (energy efficiency) and social functions. At the seventh stage, the circuit is closed,
and the components of "green structures" can be reused. Due to the natural origin, “green
structures” are almost completely naturally utilized (the eighth stage), due to which the disposal
of the construction object “under zero” is carried out.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
111
A modeling process for flood-prone areas and flood-risk assessment
Virgilio Anselmo Anselmo associati, 10023 Chieri, Italy
The maintained higher intensity of natural phenomena and the higher value of elements at risk
are becoming or should be a major concern for local administrations in modified human systems.
The paper presents a procedure to assess the flood-prone areas extent and the flooding severity in
alluvial floodplains of temperate and continental climate.
According to a consolidated procedure applied in Northern Italy, the process could be developed
following a number of steps and requirements.
First of all, the fluvial region must be assumed as the area where present morphology as well as
relict landforms can be detected.
Topography of the fluvial region should be surveyed according to a Lidar technique which may be
able to provide 1.5 points/m2 with an elevation accuracy of the order of ±15·10-2 m and a
planimetric accuracy of the order of ±30·10-2 m. The technique allows to separate the terrain
(DTM) from spurious objects (DSM) according to the protocol followed by the Italian Ministry
for the Environment. In such a way, the relevant features of the terrain (embankments, terraces,
etc.) likely to influence the flood propagation can be detected and supplied to the numerical
model.
Once the design flows have been assigned, flood-prone areas are delineated by means of the
numerical code Sobek-Rural developed by Deltares and flooded areas, water depth and velocity
maps can be provided with the required detail of information just by assigning the mesh
dimension (generally, 10x10 or 20x20 m).
The process is of affordable cost and it should be recommended as a preliminary tool for the
design of development plans. It should be of interest for the public administrations in countries of
quickly growing economies.
In already developed areas, the procedure is of value in the analysis of risk, of the efficiency of
the proposed protective works and of any action devised to risk mitigation.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
112
Evaluation of magnitudes and parameters of earthquake earth in quasireal time
scale by neural network modeling
Olga Herasimenko, Michael Lazarenko Institute of Geophysics NAS,03142, Kiev,Ukraine
This article is devoted to an extremely important topic of searching for a short-term warning of
the entry of destructive earthquake shake by assessing in real-time conditions the characteristics
of the seismic process — magnitude and localization parameters of the earthquake source, using
the mathematical apparatus of neural network modeling. Earth's surface can be considered as
projection in this point of the dynamic processes occurring in the source of the earthquake, and
each projection (that is, signal recording) as an example of the behavior of a certain function,
whose arguments include, among other things, parameters that characterize output processes and
the path of the run of the seismic signal. On the basis of these considerations, the determination
of the magnitude and localization parameters of an earthquake can be formalized as a problem of
approximation of functions describing their behavior in space, by superposition’s of functions,
examples of this behavior. This superposition is carried out using networks of artificial neurons.
It is known that the least distorted part of the package of seismic waves is located in the first
parts of their recording, that is, in its P-part. Considering each seismogram as a graphical
projection of some image of an earthquake source and seismic wave propagation medium and
using the remarkable image feature that allows its properties to be reproduced, based on
information only about its part, we use neural network to estimate magnitude and localization
parameters of an earthquake, such as coordinates of the event and the depth of the hypocenter the
initial part of the seismic signal recording for a network seismic stations. To solve the problem,
we use a multi-layer, controlled, fully connected neural network of different architectures, the
training of which was carried out by the method of reverse error transmission. Of the entire set of
vectors of the general population, consisting of digital records 494x3 (E, N, Z projections of the
wave process), seismic events, recorded by a network of stations, an educational structure was
formed to form a matrix of codes, which has the ability to generalize the output set and thus
predict the behavior of the system which is modeled, or its individual elements. The environment
for the network of artificial neurons in our case is a set of training samples Bk of the input
vectors xik of the k-th process under study - digitized samples of waveform signals S (t) in the
time window [t - Δt, t]. In the role of a “teacher” who manages the modification of parameters,
the values of target values tik are estimates of two defined parameters of the source of excitation
of registered earthquakes: a) magnitude-depth M-h; b) the coordinates of the epicenter φ-λ. For
the operation of the network in operational mode, 39 examinations of earthquakes were
randomly selected from the database, which is 8% of the total number of analyzed data that were
saved for the exam. The trained neural network was excited by a signal (parameter vector)
formed from this test sample, and the network output was compared with the target values
indicated above. Each of the signals included in the training sample, regardless of the size of the
time window, is encoded by a 12-dimensional vector. This makes it possible, with the same
neural network architecture, consisting of four hidden layers of different power, to conclude that
the time windows of different duration are relatively informative. For events that did not
participate in the training of the network, comparing the results of modeling the depth of the
focus, the magnitude of the event, the latitude and longitude of the epicenter, with the catalog
values.
The simulation carried out confirms that the most informative and the least distorted are the
initial segments of the arrival of signals - the first seconds of the recorded records, regardless of
the characteristics of the sources and the energy level of the events being analyzed. The results of
neural network modeling confirm that the most informative and least distorted are the initial
segments of the entry of signals - the first seconds of the recorded records, regardless of the
characteristics of the sources and the energy level of the analyzed events.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
113
Compliance of the computational model with the components of the natural-man-
made system is the most important condition for risk minimizing
Nikolay Petrov, Inna Nikonorova, Nadezhda Prokopyeva Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Russia
Minimizing the risk from hazardous processes depends on the accuracy of forecasting the
conditions for reliable operation of the natural-man-made system. The accuracy of the forecast
largely depends on the accuracy of the computational model - the structural- kinematic scheme
of the interaction of technogenic components with components of the geological environment,
including components of the landslide system.
Real life shows that the main cause of many major emergencies in recent years, in particular,
during the construction of the M-7 highways (Sursky Spusk) and 1P-178 (Saransk-Sursky km84
+ 00 - km97 + 50) is low quality of exploratory work and, accordingly, computational models as
a result of: a) the bureaucratic trading system, which contributes to the seizure of objects of
design and construction by incompetent organizations; b) the illiteracy of prospectors, especially
in geomorphology, errors in determining the type of slopes, lack of recognition skills for
landslides and their parts (blocks, tiers, floors) during field surveys and interpretation of
aerospace photographs and topographic maps. And, as a result, we obtain incorrectly conducted
investigations, criminal, geological sections that have nothing to do with reality, according to
which only false design solutions are possible with disastrous consequences during construction.
In those cases when code calculations are performed on models built on incorrect geological
sections, the results of such calculations are obviously unsuitable for design work, regardless of
the quantity and quality of the used methods. Moreover, it is not the calculation methods that
determine the optimality of the stability coefficient (SC), but the quality of the calculated models
and the validity of the design characteristics of the soils of the displacement zone.
Systemic errors in calculating SC are often related to the survivability of two conditions (in fact,
errors), enshrined in regulatory documents, but not providing an optimal result: a) 1st delusion -
about the suitability of the design characteristics of soils, obtained by statistical processing of
laboratory data, for all calculations as initial parameters; b) 2nd - the geotechnical requirements
of the Building Rules (BR) 11-105-97, part II, paragraph 4.2.11, as the need to perform
"calculations by various methods in order to increase the reliability of the results obtained".
It has long been proven that for obtaining an optimal result, it is enough to have a single method
for solving the problem on the correct model with the calculated characteristics of the soils of the
displacement zone, specified by inverse calculations. It should be recalled that no methods, or
rather, no new mechanical and mathematical formulas for calculating stability, will not help to
improve the quality and accuracy of the calculation with insufficient consideration for the
engineering and geological components of this problem.
Minimizing the risk and damage from hazardous slope processes depends on the study of the
structure of the landslide system and the slope massif, harmonization of the interaction of the
components of the designed object with the components of the geological environment.
Professional analysis of engineering and geological factors is a decisive condition for the
correctness of the computational model, the accuracy of design decisions, and the minimization
of natural and man-made risks.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
114
Modeling of an enterprise management competence-based capacity development in
the context of a modern risk management paradigm
Karina Alenina1, Nikolay Akatov2, Dmitriy Bryukhanov3
1 Academy of Digital Economics, Komsomolsky Ave., 41, Perm, Russia 2 Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Komsomolsky Ave., 29, Perm, Russia, 3 Demidov Yaroslavl State University, Jaroslavl, Sovetskiy street, 14, Jaroslavl, Russia
On the threshold of a new millennium, corporate executives around the world are facing risks
that were difficult to imagine ten years ago. In the “new economy” conditions the main factors of
uncertainty are: a) new technologies and the Internet; b) growing global competition; c)
increasing the freedom of trade and investment on a global scale; d) the emergence of complex
financial instruments; e) weakening of state regulation; e) changes in organizational structures as
a result of reductions, reengineering and mergers (with a significant increase in the number and
volume of mergers); g) the growing expectations of consumers of products and services.
The new paradigm of risk management in modern conditions consists not only in preparing for
the prevention of failures, but also in the desire to realize new opportunities. The modern
approach to risk management shifts the focus from fragmented, episodic activity, when managers
consider it necessary, to an integrated, continuous and expanded, aimed at finding new
opportunities.
The above mentioned requires the expansion of approaches to the development of the
competence capacity of enterprise management. It is necessary to develop competencies that are
relevant not only to identify and prevent threats and risks for the development strategy of the
enterprise, but also those that allow the detection and use of new opportunities at risk and the
formulation of new strategic priorities. It is especially important to be able to manage uncertainty
factors that can not only negatively but also positively affect the achievement of the goals of the
enterprise.
Therefore, the main sphere of manifestation and implementation of the competence-based
management capacity (CBMC) of the enterprise is the human behavior in situations of
uncertainty and risk.
Decision-making in situations, critical for the enterprise, dictates the need of attraction to group
reflexive activity not only top managers, but also experts in narrower spheres of production
activity (f.e. designers, technologists, logisticians, economists, etc.) which knowledge will allow
to carry out system situation analysis, and their competences will give the chance to find rational
solutions and to offer procedures of their realization.
Modeling of an enterprise management competence-based capacity development in the context
of a modern risk management paradigm demands coordination of a number of key aspects: a) the
theoretic-methodological approaches created within social psychology; b) paradigms and
principles of modern management; c) experience and modern practices of business management;
d) real opportunities of practical application of technologies of networking, digitalization,
computerization.
As the main functional feature of the hi-tech industrial enterprises is the dynamism and
turbulence of the business environment, the methodology of critical situations identification and
solvation has to be in a context of modern risk management paradigm. The article is devoted to
these aspects.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
115
Model of split systems for fire and explosion protection of apartments of multi-
storey buildings and individual houses
Dmitry Abrosimov1, Valery Belozerov2, Maxsim Filimonov2
1JSC "Scientific and Technical Enterprise AVIATEST", 344006, Russia, Rostov-on-Don 2Don Sate technical university, 344003, Russia, Rostov-on-Don
The article presents the development of the “intellectualization” methodology for household
electrical appliances, split-systems in particular, for diagnostics of dangerous factors of fire and
explosion from household gas leaks in apartment residential buildings and individual houses.
Using the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of a previously developed split-system-
fire detector model, in which thermoelectronic protection modules, smoke and gas sensors are
installed, which detect dangerous fire factors and leakage of household gas, the need to use
multi-split systems with two or three internal units is proved , one of which is mandatory
installed in the kitchen and complexed with a gas meter having an electromagnetic valve for
shutting off the supply of household gas, as well as with instead of a centrifugal fan, we use a
thermomagnetic air separator, which turns on when hazardous factors of fire and explosion are
detected, separates and removes oxygen through the drainage hose to the outside, ensuring the
prevention of explosion or fire spreading in the protected room returned by inert gases (nitrogen,
carbon dioxide, etc.), by generating an audible alarm and an SMS call to the appropriate
emergency service.
The obtained results testify to the effectiveness of the use of multi-split systems modified in this
way, not only for ventilation and air conditioning in apartments of high-rise buildings and in
individual residential buildings, but also for their fire and explosion protection.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
116
Risk assessment methods for a construction company
Rumella Jafarova Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction
An essential condition for the activity of entrepreneurial construction companies in the
investment area, aimed at increasing production volumes, stable profitability and successful
implementation of their social programs, is considering risks related to business and quality
management. A construction company of all types of activity or form of ownership with an
effective risk management system has significant competitive advantages in the market.
I have reviewed the main aspects of modern business risk:
1. Uncertainty and business risk, the relationship between risks and crises of a construction
company.
2. Business risk and risk management.
3. Description of threats and classification of business risks.
4. Techniques of influencing business risks.
5. Investment risk implies a total absence of profits or revenue shortfalls.
6. Financial risk depends on the sources of the entrepreneur’s funds and the state of these sources
in the company's balance sheet, in particular on the share of equity and debt capital, total assets,
etc.
7. Commercial risks arise in the field of purchase and sale.
Investment activity requires development of a real model of the market situation for given type
of product, movements of prices for raw materials and material resources for the production of
this type of product, an accurate forecast of science and technology, analysis of the state of
affairs in the construction industry. All this causes a significant amount of investment risks. In
this regard, there are four risk zones, and a formula is derived that determines the degree of
entrepreneurial risk.
Any activity of a construction company is associated with business risk. Risks can and should be
managed, since the realized risks turn into crises of a construction company. Risk assessment
should be carried out at the place of their occurrence: from the manufacturer, seller, and investor.
It is thus necessary to identify and predict risks, choose the forms of risk insurance, determine
the risk profiles of the company. This will contribute to increase profits and the cost of capital of
entrepreneurial companies.
In conclusion, it should be noted that a thorough study of risk prediction methods, selection of
optimal forms of insurance and self-insurance of risky operations and actions, the definition by
each company of its risk profile, and effective mechanisms for managing production,
commercial, personnel and other risks are necessary.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
117
Modeling of the Earth's crust of the Greater Caucasus by seismic tomography
Yetirmishli Gurban J., Kazimova Sabina E. Republican Seismological Survey Center of National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, N.Rafibeily 9,
1001, Baku, Azerbaijan
One of the best regions, if not the best place, on the planet to study early stages mountain
building is the Greater Caucasus where most of the volcanism and uplift appears to be on the
order of 5 Ma. The collisional belt between the Eurasian and Arabian plates forms a very young,
diffuse plate boundary and has important similarities and differences with the India- Eurasia
collision zone. The Greater Caucasus mountain belt contains the highest topography of the
Eurasia-Arabia plate boundary. The Greater Caucasus, the Lesser Caucasus, a broad plateau to
the south, and the Eastern Anatolian plateau to the southwest comprise the diffuse and
tectonically active plate boundary between Arabia and Eurasian plate.
The resulting data set will be used to create robust seismic images that will allow us to determine
the mechanism of uplift for the Greater Caucasus and to better understand the origin of large
earthquakes in the region. Until recently, there were very few digital broadband seismic data
available from the Greater Caucasus and therefore current velocity models are largely based on
travel time data from analog stations in the region. The stations in the region have primarily
intermediate-band and short-period seismometers; thus, a broadband experiment would greatly
increase the imaging tools available to scientists studying the region.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
118
Risk Estimation of High River Flows for Future Climate
Leszek Kuchar Department of Applied Mathematics, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Science (Poland)
In this paper the methodology of risk estimation of high river flows for future climate is
presented. The method is illustrated by the example of a river catchment and selected climate
change scenarios.
A simulation of maximum daily flows for the Kaczawa River in south-west Poland and the year
2080 are presented. The flow simulation in the river catchment was made using MIKE SHE
hydrological model and long series of generated data for 24 sites of meteorological stations.
Generated data as solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and total rainfall
were set up using spatial weather generator SWGEN producing the multisite daily time series
based on 35 years of observed data gathered from the Institute of Meteorology and Water
Management National Research Institute (IMGW). Data were generated for the present (the year
2000 are used as a background) as well for future climate condition for 2080 according
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The large number of new simulated
series determined by the lead time, three climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and
RCP8.5), and number of generated years (1000 for each case) is equal to 5000 for a single
station. Finally, Lognormal pdf function for the maximum flows are presented as well
probability of exceedance of maximum values.
The simulated maximum annual and seasonal, flows predicted for 2080 according to the
averaged scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 are consistent with the maximum annual (seasonal)
flows obtained for the SRES A1B scenarios (GISS Model E, HadCM3 and GFDL R15) in earlier
studies. A 10-20 percent increase in the maximum and minimum annual daily flows in the case
of significant water deficits in Poland is not a hydrological risk to the catchment of the Kaczawa
River.
The long series of simulated years and the large number of stations used in calculations based on
35 years of observation allow us to believe that the simulations in flow changes in Kaczawa
basin are reliable. The use of the hydrological rainfall-runoff model MIKE SHE together with
the spatial weather generator SWGEN enables effective assessment of changes in flows in river
basins with a long time horizon.
References.
IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. 2014, Geneva, Switzerland, pp.151,
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment- report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf.
Iwanski S. Kuchar L. Spatial generation of daily meteorological data (in Polish). Acta
Scientiarum Polonorum - Formatio Circumiectus, 2003, 2, 1, p.113–121.
Kuchar L. Iwanski S. Jelonek L. Szalinska W. A modeling framework to assess the impact of
climate change in river runoff. Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manag., 2, 2, p.49–63.
MIKE 11. A modelling system for Rivers and Channels, User Guide, DHI Water and
Environment, 2003.
Walpole R.E. Myers R.H. Myers S.L. Ye K. Probability and statistics for engineers and
scientists. Prentice Hall, 7th Ed., 2002, NJ.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
119
Minimization of fire risks in ventilated facade systems of buildings
Samira Akbarova Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Baku, A.Sultanova -11
Nowadays, ventilated facade systems (VFS) are becoming increasingly popular both in the
construction of new and reconstruction of old buildings. One of the main requirements for such
systems is their fire safety, which is mainly determined: by the properties of building structures
materials and their flammability, fire resistance; by the corresponding engineering- construction
solutions in accordance with the requirements of building codes. For VFSs solutions of fire
safety are the installation of the fire-prevention vertical and horizontal cut- offs, fire breaker,
installation of windows, doors within special fire-prevention boxes. The increased fire safety
requirement for VFSs is due to the fact that according to their design: between the thermal
insulation and the external facing of the facade there is air cavity where air ventilation
continuously occurs. The ventilated air cavity contributes to the rapid spread of the flame. In
order to minimize fire risks, in addition to the use of non-combustible building materials, the
engineering measures should be implemented on the basis of a unified methodology for
calculating VFSs. Despite the large amount of research on this topic, there are still no works
containing an objective assessment of the impact of cut-offs on the movement of cavity airflow.
There is also great potential for developing of the constructive proposals for the improvement of
the cut-off design in order to minimize negative impact on cavity air velocities and others
parameters.
The fire-prevention cut-off is a metal plate made of thin-sheet steel with a thickness more than
0.6 mm, and a length is about 6 m. When designing fire-prevention horizontal cut-offs, fire
breakers, it is necessary to take into consideration that these elements cannot completely block
the air movement in the air cavity of VFS. They should not adversely affect the airflow
parameters and the moisture content of the wall structures. Therefore, fire-prevention horizontal
cut-offs must be made perforated. The percentage of perforation must provide the necessary air
exchange in order to meet the requirements for the humid state of the system structures, on the
other hand, the cut-offs must meet fire safety requirements.
The article examines the impact of the cut-offs on characteristics of air cavity. This article
focuses on the methodology for engineering calculation of the optimal distance between the fire-
prevention horizontal cut-offs and fire breaker along the facade height depending on the average
local wind speed in the area of the building location. For that the air velocities are measured in
the air cavity of the facade. The reference building is operating. The required number of cut-off
points and their parameters is calculated for each specific building in accordance with
Construction codes SNIP 21-01-97 “Fire safety of buildings and structures”. Analysis of the
obtained results makes to conclude that with wind speed more than 7 m/s and façade heights of
more than 15 m, the façade should be divided into zones by height with perforated fire-
prevention horizontal cut-offs or fire breakers. They should be located along the entire perimeter
of the building. At the same time the cavity air velocity should be maintained at about 0.5-1 m/s.
It is shown that the cut-offs adversely affect the cavity air velocity and reduce the velocity factor
by five or seven times, depending on the façade configuration. The results of research and
engineering calculations can be used to further improve the regulatory framework, for the design,
installation and long-term operation of VFSs, for the calculation and experimental control during
the multi-disciplinary energy auditing of the building.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
120
Experimental research of dynamic parameters of multi-storey buildings at vibrating
seismic loadings
Shakir Mamedov1, Tukezban Hasanova2, Tural Mammedli3 1Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Department Exploitation and Reconstruction of
Buildings and Constructions, Azerbaijan
2Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Department Exploitation and Reconstruction of
Buildings and Constructions, Azerbaijan
3Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Azerbaijan
Currently, all buildings erected in seismic areas must be resistant to seismic impacts.
The purpose of these experimental studies is to determine the oscillation parameters of the object
of observation, in this case, the layout of a four-story building and a sixteen-story frame building
constructed in Baku with a rigidity diaphragm under natural vibration seismic effects.
To obtain data on perturbing forces, that is, the seismic effect of vibrations, the mutual influence
between the foundation and the base, as well as forced and natural vibrations of a 16-storey
building, a clearer idea of the form and amount of displacement, seismometers are installed at the
bottom of the foundation on the first, fourth, eighth, twelfth and sixteenth floors. Changing the
direction of the location of vibration measuring devices, oscillograms of the transverse and
longitudinal free oscillations of the building were obtained.
Dynamic tests were conducted to determine the dynamic and stiffness characteristics, the carrying
capacity of the structural elements of the building, to identify hidden defects.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
121
Landslide monitoring and early warning multifunctional system
Tamaz Chelidze1, Nodar Varamashvili1, Zurab Chelidze1, Tengiz Kiria1, Nugzar Ghlonti1,
Jemal Kiria1 1M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
The ultimate goal of the work is to develop low-cost precision geophysical monitoring complex
telemetry system with autonomous power supply (solar batteries), which use radio signal or
Internet connection for signalling activation and initiation of mudflow/landslide. In recent years,
the satisfaction of accuracy and cost efficiency demands can be achieved with the help of new
technologies (e.g. MEMS sensors, different sensors of soil moisture and tilts/accelerations with
modern digital processing and transfer elements).
A system was developed to monitor, generate and transfer an alarm signal of landslide
activation. Based on the integrated processing and analysis of several physical parameters
observed in the hazardous area, it estimates (in the real-time) the level of activity in the area of
hazardous situation. The sensors used in the system are waterproof boxes, containing three-
component analog mini-modules accelerometer-tiltmeter: MMA7361, a mini-module of the
radio-frequency soil moisture sensor (2.7 GHz Radar sensor) and a mini-module of the linear
semiconductor temperature meter (LM35).
At the final stage we tested our early warning system on the real landslide. For testing object was
selected unstable urban area (Gldani landslide) in Tbilisi, which poses a serious hazard to
residential buildings. The system has been installed for several months ago at landslide and
provides information transmission in continuous mode.
The system we have created, can, in principle, be used to monitor and produce early warning of
mudflows, floods, avalanches, etc., as well as to monitor response of large constructions and
residential buildings to mechanical vibrations (earthquakes, wind).
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
122
Geo-environmental aspects of safe urban planning
Buldakova Ekaterina1, Zaikanov Vyacheslav1, Minakova Tatiana1 1Sergeev Institute of environmental geosciences RAS, Ulansky pereulok 13, building 2, P.O.Box 145,
101000, Moscow, Russia
In connection with increasing urbanization, especially in recent decades, it is important to ensure
the environmental safety of urban areas, including geo-environmental safety. In recent years,
there has been a trend of redevelopment of urban areas with accumulated negative geological
and environmental factors. In addition, often under the new construction is given inconvenient
areas for the development where technical facilities are in areas of hazardous geological
processes. The development of areas with complex engineering-geological conditions within
urban areas is an urgent task of urban planning. Unsuitable by natural conditions sites are on
average 10-15%, and in some cities reach 35-40%. A large proportion of them are urban ravines
and gullies.
To minimize the risks of dangerous natural and natural-anthropogenic processes and phenomena
it is necessary to make a balance between social, economic and environmental interests in policy
and decision-making on urban planning is required. The interaction of geologists and urban
planners, architects, and other experts in the field of decision-making require the creation of a
unified information field for the different participants in the planning process, taking into
account that many of them have a limited understanding of the issues of geo-environmental
safety.
Geo-environmental safety of urban areas is an integral part of environmental safety. Among the
selected groups of environmental hazards to the number of geo-environmental are included:
dangerous geological and hydrological processes, contaminated soils as a result of anthropogenic
impact. In total, we have identified 12 groups of environmental hazards, including geo-
environmental in urban areas of natural and man-made classes. For each group, examples of
environmental safety indicators are given that are important for monitoring and evaluating the
safe development of cities.
To solve the strategic task of increasing the requirements for the safety of the urban
environment, it is necessary to improve the collection and analysis of data on the assessment of
geo-environmental safety of the territory of cities on the basis of a system of interrelated,
relevant and measurable indicators that take into account aspects of human interaction with
nature. In order to eliminate the current lack of territorial tools for planning compliance with
restrictions in areas of potential risk of geo- environmental hazards, it is necessary to develop a
comprehensive index of geo-environmental safety. This will make it possible to increase the
efficiency of management decisions and reduce the cost of eliminating the consequences of
dangerous geo-environmental processes and phenomena in the development of urban space.
Indicators of geo- environmental safety of the urban area are the indicators that characterize the
existing and expected geo-ecological risk at specified time intervals. They can be quantified
using statistical and monitoring data.
Geo-environmental safety index is a quantitative characteristic of one or more indicators. It can
be used as a universal tool to provide the various actors involved in the planning and
management of the urban environment with relevant and comparable information to coordinate
actions to ensure the environmental safety of cities.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
123
On reducing the safety risks of water facilities
Sabina Magerramova Department of Land Reclamation and Hydroeconomic Construction
Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction
In a general sense, the concept of risk to the safety of water facilities is interpreted as a threat to
the security and sustainability of their vital functional interests. In the scientific and technical
literature, the concept of “safety of a water management facility” is interpreted as a specific
relationship between an object and the conditions of its existence. An analysis of these general
definitions shows that they describe various aspects of security risk depending on the direction of
their application. In developed countries, there is a legal framework and relevant regulatory and
standard requirements for the assessment, analysis and management of the safety risk of
buildings of hydraulic structures, water management and melioration facilities, etc. Today in
Azerbaijan there are no relevant laws, regulatory and standard requirements. Therefore, in
practice, similar documents of the Soviet era are used, still in force.
With regard to objects of land reclamation, or rather hydroamelioration, there is the problem of
differentiating the concept of “safety”, which involves two components, which can be called
“static safety” and “dynamic safety”.
For “Azerbaijan Amelioration and Water Management” JSC, the concept of “safety” describes
only the static state of hydraulic structures. At the same time, groups of indicators, in one form
or another, characterizing the technical condition of structures (reinforced concrete, concrete,
soil, etc.), metal structures of hydraulic equipment are considered. Additionally, hydraulic,
filtration and a number of related indicators are evaluated, which, in essence, characterize only
the efficiency of the facility (hydraulic structure combined with the environment).
New approaches to assessing the safety of production facilities include a variety of it, referred to
as either “functional safety” or “process safety”. At the same time, technological safety is
assessed by a set of indicators characterizing the state of protection of an object from internal
and external threats.
For reclamation facilities, the concepts of “technological safety” with the aforementioned
concept of “dynamic safety” are in many respects adequate.
The peculiarities of interaction and interaction of buildings and equipment of land-reclamation
purposes allows using the concept of "land-reclamation technology", which more fully takes into
account the totality of types of work, methods and sequence of their implementation, a number
of other related factors characterizing the production activities of economic entities of
Azerbaijan's land-reclamation complex, including features of the cultivation of crops on irrigated
land.
Analysis of the design features of land-reclamation systems and structures, applied technologies
and technological processes during the operation of land-reclamation facilities, allows making
some generalizations about the composition of indicators and mechanisms for assessing
technological safety of reclamation facilities: to improve the quality and accuracy of
technological security assessments, it is advisable to classify reclamation facilities by their
functions.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
124
Modeling of emergency situations at water facilities
Sabina Magerramova Department of Land Reclamation and Hydroeconomic Construction, Azerbaijan University of
Architecture and Construction
Currently, the average age of existing water facilities is over half a century. Due to the long
term of work, many channels of ameliorative designation require reconstruction, repair and
modernization. The low technical condition is mainly due to the violation of the system of
maintenance and repair of facilities, which resulted in a high probability of emergency
situations (flooding and water-logging of the territory, breakthrough of the canal sides, etc.).
Possible emergency situations on the channels can be attributed to three groups:
− accidents caused by the influence of hydraulic factors of a moving stream of water;
− accidents caused by filtration processes;
− accidents caused by landslides.
The analysis shows that accidents can be caused by the following reasons:
− operation of channels with violation of technological regimes (high rate of decrease or
rise of the water level, unsteady flow patterns with the formation of release waves, etc.);
− flow rates leading to sedimentation of the channel with sediments or to its erosion;
− violation of the static stability of the soil slopes of the channels;
− Significant filtering through channel dams (appearance of free filtering moves);
− an increase in the roughness coefficient of the channel leading to a decrease in the
channel capacity (overgrowing of the channel with aquatic vegetation);
− deformation of the channels of the channels during operation (erosion of the slopes and
bottom);
− erosion of the sides of the canals with current and the action of wind waves;
− untimely maintenance of the earthen channels of the canals (cleaning of sediments,
mowing of vegetation, bedding of berms and slopes);
− late repair of hydraulic structures;
− damage to the dam's body (suffusion, erosion of slopes, etc.);
− overflow through the dam crest in case of accidents on hydraulic structures.
Based on an analysis of the causes of accidents, two main scenarios can be identified - overflow
of water through the crest of the canal dam with the formation of a blockhole and the
occurrence of filtration deformations in the body of the dam. Consider the modeling of each of
these scenarios.
Modeling emergency situations at water facilities is a complex multifactor task. The course of
the accident is affected by the initial violations that caused it, the design features of the dams,
the geological conditions of the area, meteorological factors, the topography of the area.
At present, it is necessary to develop and substantiate mathematical models for the calculation of
burrs and filtration deformations for large channels, which would take into account all the
features of the operation mode of these structures.
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
125
Content
Содержание
Supporters
Партнеры
3
Organizing Committee
Организационный комитет
4
Scientific Comittee
Научный комитет
6
Chairman’s Message
Обращение председателя
9
Program
Программа
13
Technological safety
Технологическая безопасность
Vladimir Gurevich
Protection of Electric Equipment against High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse.
Владимир Гуревич
Защита электрооборудования от высотных электромагнитных импульсов.
27
Michail Lukyanchikov, Valery Lesnykh, Alexandr Bochkov
Experience in applying of risk-focused approach to corporate control of PJSC
GAZPROM facilities
Михаил Лукъянчиков, Валерий Лесных, Александр Бочков
Опыт применения риск-ориентированного подхода при осуществлении
корпоративного контроля объектов ПАО ГАЗПРОМ.
28
Motoki Kazama
Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan - learned from two Great
Earthquake Disasters for recent 30 years
Мотоки Казама
Снижение риска стихийных бедствий в Японии – уроки двух больших
землятрасений за последние 30 лет.
29
Sahiba Kalaeva, Vladimir Makarov, Nadejda Markelova, Ramil Kalaev
Obtaining synthetic magnetite and ferromagnetic fluid from industrial waste to
purify water from petroleum products.
Сахиба Калаева, Владимир Макаров, Надежда Маркелова, Рамиль Калаев
Получение синтетического магнетита и магнитной жидкости из отходов
производства для очистки воды от нефтепродуктов.
30
Vinera Bekbaeva, Galina Metaksa
Innovations in minimizing natural and technological risks in the oil industry.
Винера Бекбаева, Галина Метакса
Инновации в минимизации природных и технологических рисков в
нефтяной промышленности.
31
Ulyana Ivanova,Vladimir Moskvichev
The cause-and-effect regularities of anthropogenic accidents.
Ульяна Иванова, Владимир Москвичов
Причинно-следственные закономерности техногенных катастроф.
32
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
126
Vladimir Nadein, Rüshdi Safarov, Oleg Zerkal, Natik Seidakhmedov, Igor
Fomenko
Assessment and analysis of risks in the reorientation of old industrial areas for
urban planning and recreational purposes (on example of Baku).
Владимир Надеин, Рушди Сафаров, Олег Зеркал, Натик Сеидахмедов,
Игорь Фоменко
Оценка и анализ рисков при переориентации старых промышленных зон на
градостроительные и рекреационные цели (на примере г. Баку).
33
Oksana Hunchenko
Analysis of the main characteristics of industrial risk.
Оксана Гунченко
Анализ основных характеристик промышленного риска.
34
Yury Karin, Natalya Yurkevich, Igor Yeltsov
Mine wastes: models of mine tailing facilities inferred from geophysical and
geochemical investigations.
Юрий Карин, Наталья Юркевич, Игорь Ельцов
Отходы шахт: модели хвостохранилищ, выведенные из геофизических и
геохимических исследований.
35
Vladimir Malyshev, Larisa Borisoglebskaia
Intellectual innovation system of technological safety for the oil and gas
industry.
Владимир Малышев, Лариса Борисоглебская
Интеллектуальная инновационная система технологической безопасности
для нефтегазовой отрасли.
36
Igor Cheshyk, Halina Hutsava, Mikalai Barysevich
Information-psychological protection of the public in nuclear accidents.
Experience of the Republic of Belarus.
Игорь Чещик, Галина Гуцева, Миколай Барышевич
Информационно-психологическая защита населения при ядерных авариях.
Опыт Республики Беларусь.
37
Fakhraddin Gabibov
Development of innovative technologies to minimize the risks during the
construction and operation of structure on unstable soils.
Фахраддин Габибов
Разработка инновационных технологий для минимизации рисков при
строительстве и эксплуатации конструкций на неустойчивых почвах.
38
Palma Orlović-Leko, Irena Ciglenečki-Jusić, Nevenka Mikac, Ivo Galić, Alojzije
Filipović
Environmental risk associated with water in the abandoned mines.
Палма Орлович-Леко, Ирена Чиглинески-Жусич, Невенка Микас, Иво
Галич, Аложзие Филипович
Экологический риск, связанный с водой в заброшенных шахтах.
39
Ivo Galić, Branimir Farkaš, Ivan Soldo
Risk assessment and possible solutions for certain abandoned mines in the
Dinarides area.
Иво Галич, Бранимир Фаркаш, Иван Солдо
Оценка риска и возможные решения для некоторых заброшенных шахт в
районе Динаридес.
40
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
127
Youngcheul Kwon, Yudai Kawamura, Hajime Imanishi
Assessment of post-earthquake ground settlement of clayey soils based on
consolidation settlement potential.
Джонг Чеул Квон, Юдаи Кавамура, Хаиме Иманиши
Оценка состояния грунтовых поселений после землетрясения на глинистых
почвах с учетом консолидационного расчетного потенциала.
41
Gennadiy Shmal', Vladimir Nadein, Nikolai Makhutov
Development of safety principles and criteria on offshore hydrocarbon facilities
and infrastructures.
Геннадий Шмаль, Владимир Надеин, Николай Махутов
Разработка принципов и критериев безопасности на морских
углеводородных объектах и инфраструктурах.
42
Nikolai Makhutov, Aleksandr Rybas, Vladimir Nadein
Scientific support of the basis of state policy in the field of industrial safety.
Николай Махутов, Александр Рыбась, Владимир Надеин
Научное сопровождение основ государственной политики в области
промышленной безопасности.
43
Eugeny Gumennikov, Nikolai Buktukov, Gulzada Mashataeva
Exclusion of the risks of injury in the release of the mountain mass from
cleaning blocks and bunkers.
Евгений Гуменников, Николай Буктуков, Гульзада Машатаева
Исключение рисков травматизма при выпуске горной массы из очистных
блоков и бункеров.
44
Anna Gumenyuk, Inna Nikonorova, Marina Vishnevskaya
Stability and risk in recreational development of the coast of the Cheboksary and
Kuibyshev reservoirs.
Анна Гуменьюк, Инна Никонорова, Марина Вишневская
Устойчивость и риск в рекреационном развитии побережья Чебоксарского
и Куйбышевского водохранилищ.
45
Yana Krukhmaleva
Automation of the project and risk management system on the example of PJSC
GAZPROM International investment projects. The latest software for risk
analysis of the Russian manufacturers. Information security of PJSC
GAZPROM.
Яна Крухмалева
Автоматизация системы управления проектами и рисками на примере
международных инвестиционных проектов ГАЗПРОМ. Новейшее
программное обеспечение для анализа рисков Российского производителя.
Информационная безопасность ПАО ГАЗПРОМ.
46
Andrew Botviniev
Russian transport network-bridge between Europe and Asia.
Андрей Ботвиньев
Российская транспортная сеть-мост между Европой и Азией.
47
Nikolay Zapivalov
Risks and uncertainties in the Petroleum Sector.
Nikolai Zapivalov
Риски и неопределенности в нефтяном секторе.
48
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
128
Igor Hadjamberdiev, Rustam Tukhvatshin, Ibragimjon Domulajanov
Central Asia old tailings: mutual risk factors.
Игорь Хаджамбердыев, Рустам Тукватшин, Ибрагимджон Домулажанов
Старые отходы Центральной Азии: факторы взаимного риска.
49
Eugeny Telenkov
The experience of Norilsk Nickel: Model of management of technical and
production risks.
Евгений Теленков
Опыт Норильского никеля: Модель управления технико-
производственными рисками.
50
Vugar Aliyev
Deformation of riverbed of Kura river as a factor of emergency situation in oil-
and gas-transport systems.
Вугар Алиев
Деформация русла реки Куры как фактор чрезвычайной ситуации в
нефтегазотранспортных системах.
51
Ayten Akhmedova, Islam Mustafaev
The formation of specific effective activity of natural radionuclides in building
materials and products.
Айтен Ахмедова, Ислам Мустафаев
Формирование удельной эффективной активности природных
радионуклидов в строительных материалах и изделиях.
52
Natural emergency situations
Природные чрезвычайные ситуации Daya Shanker
Earthquake risk evaluation in Western Himalaya, India - a scenario report.
Дая Шанкер
Оценка риска землетрясения в Западных Гималаях, Индия – отчет
сценарий.
53
Sharpuddin Zaurbekov, Luiza Bekmurzaeva, T Ozdieva
The use of GIS technologies in assessing the exposure of the territory of the
Chechen Republic to dangerous natural processes and phenomena
Шарпуддин Заурбеков, Луиза Бекмурзаева, Оздиева Т.Х Применение ГИС-
технологий при оценке подверженности территории Чеченской Республики
опасным природным процессам и явлениям.
54
Nigora Fayzibaeva
Water resources of Uzbekistan: problems and solutions
Нигора Фейзибаева
Водные ресурсы Узбекистана: проблемы и пути решения.
55
Akhmetkal Medeu, Viktor Blagoveshenskiy, Maulken Askarova, Tamara
Gulyayeva, Alikhan Medeu, Sandugash Ranova
Mudflow Risk Management Experience in Kazakhstan
Ахметкал Медеу, Виктор Благовещенский, Маулкен Аскарова, Тамара
Гуляева, Алихан Медеу, Сандугаш Ранова
Опыт управления селевым риском в Казахстане.
56
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
129
Aliakbar Rasouli, Kevin Cheung and Hanieh Mobasher
Highlighting Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Events
Applying a GIS-Oriented Approach Inside the Greater Sydney Metropolitan
Area
Алиакбар Расули, Кэвин Чэнг, Хание Мобашер
Выделение широко грозовых событий с применением ГИС-
ориентированного подхода в районе Большого Сиднея.
57
Gurban Yetirmishli, Sabina Kazimova
Seismicity of Azerbaijan for the period 2012-2019 yy.
Гурбан Етирмишли, Сабина Казимова
Сейсмичность Азербайджана за период 2012-2019 гг.
58
Adil Aliyev
Mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan: ecological problems and
environmental risk assessment.
Адиль Алиев
Грязевые вулканы Азербайджана: экологические проблемы и
оценка экологических рисков.
59
Jafar Niyazov, Ali Fazilov, Mirzo Saidov
The GIS and remote sensing in the monitoring of debris flow effects in
Tajikistan.
Джафар Ниязов, Али Фазилов, Мирзо Саидов
ГИС и дистанционное зондирование в мониторинге воздействия селевого
потока в Таджикистане.
60
Larisa Agaeva, Emil Esenov
Issues of assessment and zoning of seismic danger in Turkmenistan.
Лариса Агаева, Эмиль Эсенов
Вопросы оценки и районирования сейсмической опасности в
Туркменистане.
61
Avaz Salamov, Vagif Mammadov, Hadiya Khalilova
Formation of sliding processes in the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan and
their threats (case study: the Absheron Peninsula).
Аваз Саламов, Вагиф Мамедов, Хадийя Халилова
Формирование процессов скольжения на территории Азербайджанской
Республики и их угрозы (на примере Апшеронского полуострова).
62
Mikhail Faleev, Nikolai Makhutov, Evgeny Kozlov
Understanding the risks of disaster reduction.
Михаил Фалеев, Николай Махутов, Евгений Козлов
Проблемы понимания рисков снижения стихийных бедствий.
63
Evgeniy Sherzhukov, Dmitriy Morozov
Experience of creating a monitoring system of dangerous hydrological
phenomena in the territory of Krasnodar region.
Евгений Шержуков, Дмитрий Морозов
Опыт создания системы мониторинга опасных гидрологических явлений на
территории Краснодарской области.
64
Merab Gongadze, George Lominadze, George Khomeriki
Natural disaster exodynamic processes and events in Georgia.
Мераб Гонгадзе, Георгий Ломинадзе, Георгий Хомерики
Стихийнные экзодинамические процессы и явления в Грузии.
65
Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN
130
Olga Taseiko, Daria Chernykh
The relative risks for population health in Krasnoyarsk city caused by cold
weather.
Ольга Тасейко, Дарья Черных
Относительные риски для здоровья населения в городе Красноярске,
вызванные холодной погодой.
66
Tatiana Kuderina
Atmospheric geochemical risks in strengthening the processes of natural
desertification and anthropogenic land degradation in southern Russia.
Татьяна Кудерина
Атмосферные геохимические риски при усилении процессов природного
опустынивания и антропогенной деградации земель юга России.
67
Kamchibek Kojogulov, Aichurok Toktogulova, Gulnara Kabaeva, Tabaldy
Jumaev
About one method of protection from mudflows.
Камчибек Кожогулов, Айчурок Токтогулова, Гулнара Кабаева, Табалды
Жумаев
Об одном способе защиты от селевых потоков.
68
Kamchibek Kojogulov, Aichurok Toktogulova, Gulnara Kabaeva, Tabaldy
Jumaev
The way to eliminate ice jams on the rivers of Kyrgyzstan.
Камчибек Кожогулов, Айчурок Токтогулова, Гулнара Кабаева, Табалды
Жумаев
Способ ликвидации заторов льда на реках Кыргызстана.
69
Emil Bournaski, Ivan Ivanov, Galia Bardarska, Svilen Borisov, Olga Nicheva,
Aleksey Benderev, Tatiana Orehova, Vladimir Hristov, Petar Gerginov, Neli
Hristova, Polia Dobreva, Ivan Penkov
Scientific program of Republic of Bulgaria for environmental protection and
reducing the risk of negative phenomena and natural disasters.
Эмиль Боурнаский, Иван Иванов, Галия Бардарска, Свилен Борисов, Ольга
Ничева, Алексей Бендерев, Татьяна Орехова, Владимир Христов, Петар
Гергинов, Нелли Христова, Полья Добрева, Иван Пенков
Научная программа Республики Болгария по охране окружающей среды и
снижению риска негативных явлений и стихийных бедствий.
70
Rza Mahmudov, Vugar Aliyev
Global climate change and its impact on hydrometeorological condition in
Azerbaijan.
Рза Махмудов, Вугар Алиев
Глобальное изменение климата и его влияние на гидрометеорологическое
состояние в Азербайджане.
71
Emil Bayramov, Ramiz Mammadov, Rafael Bayramov, Saida Aliyeva
Quantitative prediction and mitigation of landslides and erosion risks using GIS
and remote sensing.
Эмиль Байрамов, Рамиз Мамедов, Рафаэль Байрамов, Саида Алиева
Количественное прогнозирование и снижение риска оползней и эрозии с
использованием ГИС и дистанционного зондирования.
72
Ramiz Mammadov. Natural hazards in the mountain regions of the Azerbaijan
Republic and these CIS mapping.
73
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131
Рамиз Мамедов
Стихийные бедствия в горных районах Азербайджанской Республики и их
ГИС картографировании.
Eberhard Gröner, Armin Roduner
Slope stabilization and erosion protection in a single operation.
Эберхард Грёнер, Армин Родунер
Стабилизация склона и защита от эрозии за одну операцию.
74
Corinna Wendeler, Eberhard Gröner, Alexander Barinov, Matthias Denk
Ten years’ experience in flexible debris flow barriers.
Каринна Вэндэлер, Эберхард Грёнер, Александр Баринов, Маттиас Денк
Десять лет опыта в области гибких барьеров для селевого потока.
75
Complex safety
Комплексная безопасность Arkady Granovskiy, Bulat Dzgamuev, Oleg Simakov, Daria Lvova
The use carbon fiber and carbon mesh to increase the seismic resistance of
masonry buildings.
Аркадий Грановский, Булат Дзгамуев, Олег Симаков, Дарья Львова
Использование углеродного волокна и углеродной сети для повышения
сейсмического сопротивления каменных зданий.
76
Irina Malneva
Operational forecasts to minimize the natural and man-made risks of hazardous
geological processes.
Ирина Мальнева
Оперативные прогнозы для минимизации природных и техногенных
рисков опасных геологических процессов.
77
Anatolii Pavlenko
How to neutralize biopathogenic and technopathogenic radiation on humans
Анатолий Павленко
Как нейтрализовать биопатогенное и технопатогенное излучение на
человека.
78
Nigora Talipova
Issues of food security while minimizing natural risks.
Нигора Талипова
Вопросы обеспечения продовольственной безопасности в условиях
минимизации природных рисков.
79
Irina Glinyanova
Holistic Approach to Phytomonitoring in the System of Ecological Safety of
Urban Areas.
Инна Глинянова
Целостный подход к фитомониторингу в системе экологической
безопасности городских территорий.
80
Nadira Mavlyanova
Development of cooperation of NIS countries for mitigation of natural and
technological risk.
Надира Мавлянова
Развитие сотрудничества стран СНГ по снижению природных и
техногенных рисков.
81
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132
Vladimir Moskvichev
Comprehensive assessment of the natural and man-made safety of Siberian
regions.
Владимир Москвичов
Комплексная оценка природной и техногенной безопасности регионов
Сибири.
82
Bahman Amiri
Caring of the shape of change in our landscape: from hydrological context into
landscape planning one.
Бахман Амири
Забота о форме изменений в нашем ландшафте: от гидрологического
контекста до ландшафтного планирования.
83
Fakhraddin Gabibov, Arzu Zeynalov
Choice of innovative risk management measures at industrial facilities within
complex topography with landslide hazard.
Фахраддин Габибов, Арзу Зейналов
Выбор инновационных мер по управлению рисками на промышленных
объектах в сложной топографии с опасностью оползня.
84
Fakhraddin Gabibov, Aydin Huseynov
The main economic and administrative barriers affecting a high level of risks in
the commercialization of innovations.
Фахраддин Габибов, Айдын Гусейнов
Основные экономические и административные барьеры, влияющие на
высокий уровень рисков при коммерциализации инноваций.
85
Valdemaras Makutėnas
Assessing the impact of environmental tax revenue on environmental pollution
in European countries.
Вальдемарас Макутенас
Оценка воздействия налога на загрязнение окружающей среды в
Европейских странах.
86
Daiva Makutėnienė
Factors affecting crop insurance: The case of Lithuania
Дайва Макутениене
Факторы, влияющие на страхование урожая: случай Литвы.
87
Irina Rudaya, Boris Anikin
Risks and opportunities of the cross-border e-Commerce development in the
context of the new customs legislation of the Eurasian Customs Union and the
Russian Federation.
Ирина Рудая, Борис Аникин
Риски и возможности развития трансграничной электронной торговли в
контексте нового таможенного законодательства Евразийского
таможенного союза и Российской Федерации.
88
Anna Fedotova, Lyudmila Yakovleva, Elena Loktionova
The environmental component of the integrated security of the Caspian macro-
region.
Анна Федотова, Людмила Яковлева, Елена Локтионова
Экологическая составляющая комплексной безопасности Каспийского
макрорегиона.
89
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133
Vadim Plyushchikov, Vladimir Avdotin, Vladislav Plyushchikov, Mirashraf
Fatiev
The influence of the combined effect of negative factors: heavy metals,
pesticides, radionuclides, etc. - in the soils of urban agglomerations to ensure
their key functions and ecosystem services.
Вадим Плющиков, Владимир Авдотьин, Владислав Плющиков, Мирашраф
Фатиев
Влияние комбинированного воздействия негативных факторов: тяжелых
металлов, пестицидов, радионуклидов и т. д. - на почвы городских
агломераций для обеспечения их основных функций и экосистемных услуг.
90
Irena Ciglenečki, Milan Čanković, Jelena Dautović, Marija Marguš, Ivica
Janeković
Changes in the environment: Importance of long-term monitoring.
Ирена Чиглинески, Милан Чанкович, Елена Даутович, Мария Маргус,
Ивица Джанекович
Изменения в окружающей среде: важность долгосрочного мониторинга.
91
Yuliia Kvach
Risk management at the piloting stage.
Юлия Квач
Управление рисками на этапе пилотирования.
92
Vladimir Avdotin, Aleksandr Kononov, Vadim Plyushchikov, Julia Avdotina,
Vladislav Plyushchikov
On the causes and consequences of cognitive distortions in assessing the
significance and role of civilization factors in risk and safety management.
Владимир Авдотьин, Александр Кононов, Вадим Плющиков, Юлия
Авдотьина, Владислав Плющиков
О причинах и последствиях когнитивных нарушений в оценке значимости
и роли цивилизационных факторов в управлении рисками и безопасностью.
93
Givi Gavardashvili
Disasters resilience of infrastructure to natural and human-caused hazards.
Гиви Гавардашвили
Устойчивость инфраструктуры к стихийным бедствиям и антропогенным
воздействиям.
94
Vesna Tunguz, Ljiljana Nesic, Otilija Miseckaite
Zalomka-underground stream and Eastern Hercegovina soils.
Весна Тунгуз, Льйиляна Неич, Отилижа Мисекаите
Заломка - подземный ручей и почвы Восточной Герцеговины.
95
Vladimir Belozerov, Vyacheslav Vorotilov, Pavel Obukhov
Adaptation of the method of rapid analysis of liquid packaged products for
recognition of counterfeit alcohol.
Владимир Белозеров, Вячеслав Воротилов, Павел Обухов
Адаптация метода экспресс-анализа жидких упакованных продуктов для
распознавания контрафактного алкоголя.
96
Lia Matchavariani, Giorgi Metreveli, Zaza Gulashvili
Integrate management of water reservoirs problems.
Лия Мачавариани, Георгий Метревели, Заза Гулашвили
Комплексное управление проблемами водохранилищ.
97
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134
Ramiz Mammadov, Khosiyat Ismatova, Natavan Jafarova
Experience of using space technologies to minimize the risk of natural and man-
made disasters in Azerbaijan.
Рамиз Мамедов, Хосият Исматова, Натаван Джафарова
Опыт применения космических технологий для минимизации риска
природных и техногенных катастроф в Азербайджане.
98
Seymur Mammadov, Emil Gafarov
About the condition of physical stability of the Mingechevir dam.
Сеймур Мамедов, Эмиль Гафаров
О состоянии физической устойчивости Мингечевирской плотины.
99
Vugar Aliyev
Water supply and global critical infrastructure of Azerbaijan: Interdepencies and
interactions.
Вугар Алиев
Водоснабжение и глобальная критическая инфраструктура Азербайджана:
взаимозависимости и взаимодействия.
100
Aliona Tihon. The global problem of natural and man-made disasters.
Алёна Тихон.Глобальная проблема природных и техногенных катастроф.
101
Ahmed Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, Denys Dutykh
Nonlinear deformation and run-up of tsunami waves of positive polarity:
numerical simulations and analytical predictions.
102
Modeling of Processes, Assessment and Minimization of Risks
Моделирование процессов, оценка и минимизация рисков Valery Lesnykh, Tatiana Timofeeva
Classification and modeling of intersystem accidents for infrastructure-complex
areas.
Валерий Лесных, Татьяна Тимофеева
Классификация и моделирование межсистемных аварий для
инфраструктурно-сложных территорий.
103
Elena Patrusheva, Elena Lifanova
Innovation projects risks monitoring when achieving company’s strategic
targets.
Елена Патрушева, Елена Лифанова
Мониторинг рисков инновационных проектов при достижении
стратегических целей компании.
104
Yeraly Shokbarov
Assessment of seismic risk in Almaty.
Ералы Шокбаров
Оценка сейсмического риска в Алматы.
105
Mikhail Lebedev, Kirill Romanevich
Natural and industrial risk assessment and forecasting at the project phase of the
Second Severo-Muysky Tunnel.
Михаил Лебедев, Кирилл Романевич
Оценка и прогнозирование природных и промышленных рисков на этапе
реализации проекта второго Северо-Муйского тоннеля.
106
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135
Mikhail Lebedev, Vladimir Maslak, Konstantin Bezrodny, Yury Isaev
Natural and industrial risks minimization in the course of operation of Sochi
Olympic Tunnels.
Михаил Лебедев, Владимир Маслак, Константин Безродный, Юрий Исаев
Минимизация природных и промышленных рисков при эксплуатации
Олимпийских тоннелей в Сочи.
107
Jafar Niyazov, Mirzo Saidov, Majid Gulayozov, Mustafo Safarov, Sukhbatullo
Saidov
The challenges of sustainable solution for reducing risk levels in the Sarez lake
area, Tajikistan.
Джафар Ниязов, Мирзо Саидов, Маджид Гулаязов, Мустафо Сафаров,
Сухбатулло Саидов
Проблема устойчивого решения для снижения уровней риска в районе
Сарезского озера, Таджикистан.
108
Fakhraddin Gabibov, Yerali Shokbarov, Huseyn Bayat
On the introduction of technical innovations to reduce risk in development of
territories with high seismicity.
Фахраддин Габибов, Ералы Шокбаров, Гусейн Баят
О внедрении технических инноваций для снижения рисков при освоении
территорий с повышенной сейсмичностью.
109
Tetiana Tkachenko, Olena Voloshkina
“Green structures” as a tool for reducing the environmental risks of urban
ecosystems.
Тетиана Ткаченко, Олёна Волошкина
«Зеленые структуры» как инструмент снижения экологических рисков
городских экосистем.
110
Virgilio Anselmo
A modeling process for flood-prone areas and flood-risk assessment.
Виргилио Анселмо
Процесс моделирования для подверженных наводнениям территорий и
оценка риска наводнений.
111
Olga Herasimenko, Michael Lazarenko
Evaluation of magnitudes and parameters of earthquake earth in quasireal time
scale by neural network modeling.
Ольга Герасименко, Михаил Лазаренко
Оценка магнитуд и параметров землетрясения Земли в квазиреальном
масштабе времени с помощью моделирования нейронной сети.
112
Nikolay Petrov, Inna Nikonorova, Nadezhda Prokopyeva
Compliance of the computational model with the components of the natural-
man-made system is the most important condition for risk minimizing.
Николай Петров, Инна Никонорова, Надежда Прокофьева
Соответствие вычислительной модели компонентам природно-
антропогенной системы является важнейшим условием минимизации
природных и техногенных рисков.
113
Karina Alenina, Nikolay Akatov, Dmitriy Bryukhanov
Modeling of an enterprise management competence-based capacity development
in the context of a modern risk management paradigm.
Карина Алёнина, Николай Акатов, Дмитрий Брюханов
Моделирование развития потенциала управления предприятием на основе
современной парадигмы управления рисками.
114
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136
Dmitry Abrosimov, Valery Belozerov, Maxim Filimonov
Model of split systems for fire and explosion protection of apartments
of multi-storey buildings and individual houses.
Дмитрий Абросимов, Валерий Белозеров, Максим Филимонов
Модель сплит систем противопожарной и взрывобезопасности квартир
многоэтажных домов и индивидуальных домов.
115
Rumella Jafarova
Risk assessment methods for a construction company.
Румелла Джафарова
Методы оценки рисков для строительной компании.
116
Gurban Yetirmishli, Sabina Kazimova
Modeling of the Earth’s crust of the Greater Caucasus by seismic tomography.
Гурбан Етирмишли, Сабина Казимова
Моделирование земной коры Большого Кавказа методом сейсмической
томографии.
117
Leszek Kuchar
Risk estimation of high river flows for future climate.
Лесзек Кучар
Оценка риска высоких речных потоков для будущего климата.
118
Samira Akbarova
Minimization of fire risks in ventilated facade systems of buildings.
Самира Акбарова
Минимизация пожароопасности в вентилируемых фасадных системах
зданий.
119
Shakir Mamedov, Tukezban Hasanova, Tural Mammedli
Experimental research of dynamic parameters of multi-storey buildings at
vibrating seismic loadings.
Шакир Мамедов, Тукезбан Гасанова, Турал Маммедли
Экспериментальное исследование динамических параметров
многоэтажных зданий при вибрационных сейсмических нагрузках.
120
Tamaz Chelidze, Nodar Varamashvili, Zurab Chelidze, Tengiz Kiria, Nugzar
Ghlonti, Jemal Kiria
Landslide monitoring and early warning multifunctional system.
Тамаз Челидзе, Нодар Варамашвили, Зураб Челидзе, Тенгиз Кириа, Нугзар
Глонти, Джемал Кириа
Многофункциональная система мониторинга оползней и раннего
предупреждения.
121
Ekaterina Buldakova, Vyacheslav Zaikanov, Tatiana Minakova
Geo-environmental aspects of safe urban planning.
Екатерина Булдакова, Вячеслав Заиканов, Татьяна Минакова
Геоэкологические аспекты планирования безопасных городов.
122
Sabina Magerramova
On reducing the safety risks of water facilities.
Сабина Магеррамова
О снижении рисков безопасности водохозяйственных объектов.
123
Sabina Magerramova
Modeling of emergency situations at water facilities.
Сабина Магеррамова
Моделирование аварийных ситуаций на водохозяйственных объектах.
124