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www.gogla.org GOGLA Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access 1

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Page 1: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

www.gogla.org

GOGLAAccelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to

Reach Universal Access

1

Page 2: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

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GOGLA is the industry association for the off-grid lighting and electrification sector

Our mission is to help our members build sustainable markets, made up of profitable companies, delivering quality, affordable off-grid electricity products and services to as many customers as possible across the developing world.

Our Mission

Page 3: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

3

GOGLA in numbers

> 100members around the world

Two membership categories: industry members and associate members. Industry members represent mainly off-grid solar manufacturers and distributors. Associate members include investors, sector facilitators and research facilities.

13team membersBased in Utrecht, London, Mumbai, Nairobi.

7 BoD membersRepresentatives of GOGLA members.

5 working groupsPolicy, Impact, Technology, Business Development and Sustainability

Page 4: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

GOGLA Focus

Solar Lanterns

Solar HomeSystems

(+ Household Appliances)

Community &Street Lighting

Off-grid Productive Use

Appliances

Page 5: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

The off-grid solar market at a glance

5

3.52m products sold globally in H1 ‘17

$95.6m Cash sales revenues in H1 2017

East African countries and India are key markets.

People with improved energy access historically

120.3m

Page 6: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

TBD

Market Forecast

Source:2018 Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report, Dalberg market model and analysis

200

450

250

350

300

30

150

100

400

00

120

50

90

60

434

40

2019

4(12%)

2022

33(82%)

24(33%)

7(18%)

39(75%)

31

47(67%)

27(88%)

13(25%)

52

2021

70

2018

336

23(92%)

1(4%)

2020

22(96%)

2017

23 252

(8%)

Cumulative (base case)PnP SHSCumulative (aggressive case)Pico

OGS market forecast for pico and PnP SHSMillion units; left axis: annual sales; right axis: cumulative sales (2017-22)

Aggressive case: Annual total sales growth: 30%

Base case: Annual total sales growth: 25%

Page 7: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

TBD

Note: 2017 figures include estimates of the acquisition of Fenix International by Engie and a follow-on investment from a consortium of investors led by Investec Asset Management into Mobisol. This study has not been able to verify the size of these transactions, and estimates that they collectively fall in the range of USD 30-45 million; Source: GOGLA 2018 Deals Database

2.4 9.8 21.3 25.4Avg. size of top 5 transactions

2.8

Annual investment in OGS sector over time by type of financing USD Millions (2012- YTD December 2017)

21

75

2013

56%

18

2012 2014

4%

3%207

5%

+98%

40%

2016

317

56%

YTD Dec 8, 2017

284

2015

61%

36%

40%

DebtEquityGrants

Avg. size of overall transactions

1.0 3.1 5.6 5.01.4

Number of transactions 18 24 37 5715

31.7

4.0

79

5%

45%

50%

922

2012 – YTD 2017

Type and Amount of Capital Attracted to Date

Page 8: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

Funding Raised per Region 2012 - 2017

8Source: GOGLA 2018 Deals Database; Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report

Page 9: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

TBD

Source 2018 Solar Off-Grid Market Trends Report; Dalberg OGS 2017-2022 financing needs forecast model; Dalberg analysis

Total funding needs

Internal funding

$5.1 – 5.7

$1.1 – 1.3

$2.4 – 2.6

Expected external funding from publicly announced sources

$1.6 – 1.9

New external funding to be raised

Funding gapsUSD Billions (2017-2022)

Estimated Funding Needs 2017 - 2022

Page 10: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

The Role of Governments

10

Page 11: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

Expanding the Commercial Market

11Source: GOGLA guidance for governments

Page 12: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

Ways to Deploy Public Funding

12

Results-based financingConcessional finance schemesFOREX risk mitigation

Concessions

Page 13: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

There is a clear need for public & private to work together:

• Accelerated market growth • Intensified geographic expansion • Support 2nd and 3rd generation companies• Bridge the viability gap

13

Page 14: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

How to contact us

14

[email protected]

+31 304 100 914

Follow us on

www.gogla.org

All Materials/ Reports quoted in this slide deck can be found here: www.gogla.org/resources

Page 15: Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal ... · Accelerating the Off-Grid Solar Market to Reach Universal Access (Webinar Presentation) Author: Ruben van Weerdhuizen

Addressable Market

15

For 1.5-3Wp pico @ USD25 standard price (light and phone charging)

Source: 2018 Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report