Achievements of KTX project for the past year and

improvement measures

November 8, 2005

Yong Sang, LEE

- Analysis of one-year operation of KTX since opening

- Comparison with Japan’s Shinkansen performances

- Improvement measures (Expanding demand, etc.)

Consciousness of issues

- Rose 40% in demand of Kyungbu line, 16% in Honam line

- Rose 204% in revenue of Kyungbu line, 161% in Honam line

- Korea marks 44.6% out of forecast demand figure

- While Japan marks 46.4% at its first year, 64.9% at its 2nd, 78.8% at third, 89.1% at fourth, 96.3% at fifth, 95.8% at sixth

Change of transport capacity over time

TotalHonam line

Kyungbu lineTotalHonam lin

eKyungbu line

1,6083181,2903,1495132,636Total

1,6083181,290991203788Other trains

2,1583101,848KTXDaily average revenue

1403110919036154Total

140311091162492Other trains

741262KTXDaily average

transport capacity

588,740116,514472,2261,149,072187,037962,035Total

588,740116,514472,226361,57774,041287,536Other trains

787,495112,996674,499KTX

Revenue

51,40211,46339,93969,19613,26855,928Total

51,40211,46339,93942,2658,86533,400Other trains

26,9314,40322,528KTXTransport capacity

April 1, 2003~March 31, 2004April 1, 2004~March 31, 2005

Figure 2. Comparison of transport capacity in pre/post KTX era

(Unit: 100,000 persons, 1 million won)

201(100)236151179(89.1)1967

196319621957

286(100)316193352(123.1)1974

273(100)302187341(124.9)1973

261(100)288181297(113.8)1972

250(100)276175265(106.0)1971

259(100)263169279(107.7)1970

238(100)266163228(95.8)1969

218(100)251156210(96.3)1968

184(100)223142145(78.8)1966

165(100)204133107(64.9)1965

84(100)8412839(46.4)1964

ForecastPerformanceYear

Figure 3. Demand forecast and performance in figure of Tokaido Shinkansen

(Unit : 100 mil. persons·km)

2004~2005

2003~2004

Increase Difference

Upward 1,502 633 869 237

Downward 1,502 662 840 227

Total 3,005 1,296 1,709 232

Year

Bound

(Unit : 1000 persons, %)

Figure 4. Change of demand: Kyushu Shinkansen

Comparison between Korea and Japan

- Though demands of the two countries stood similar at first, Korea is regarded to have performed below expectations considering the nation had the edge over Japan with economic power and speed at the starting point.

- This seems to be the result of the railway-oriented system in case of Japan while Korea was road centered and the usage of conventional line accounts for 66%.

Korea(2004) A

Japan(1964) B

A/B

Population 483.8 mil. 971.8 mil. 0.49

GDP per capita

U$12,000 U$3,000 4.0

Extension of high speed

railway408.8km 515km 0.8

Operation hrs.

2 Hrs.40 Min. 4 Hrs. 0.8

High speed rail demand

62,000 persons

60,538 persons

1.0

(as of the period when Kyungbu high speed rail opened)

Figure 5. Comparison of population and economics

Division Japan Korea

Opening yearTokaido Shinkansen 19

64Kyungbu and Honam lin

es 2004

Usage of conventional line

0% 66%

Schedule speed 129km 154km

Railway extension at opening

20,681km 3,129km

Road extension at opening

181km 2,778km

Transport system Railway centered Road centered

Figure 6. Comparisons of status at opening

- KTX showed 91.7% punctuality by five minutes, better on time than the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany and Britain

- Figure shows that Korea had a more stable start. Japan was very unstable in system in its Infant stage, marking 21 cases of more-than-two-hour delay within a year

- Number of safety dysfunction came to 127 in Korea, 214 in Japan on its first year of operation, 251 on its second year.

Punctuality and train accidents

Nation Punctuality(%)

Japan(JR) 98.3

Spain(RENFE) 96.7

France(SNCF) 93.4

Korea(KTX) 91.7

The Netherlands(NS) 90.7

Sweden(SJ) 89.3

Germany(DB) 89.0

U.K. 84.5

Figure 7. Comparison of punctuality (by 5 minutes)

Division

1964 1965 1966 1967

Number of accident

214 251 153 86

Year 1968 1969 1970 1971

Number of accident

78 88 70 99

Year 1972 1973 1974 1975

Number of accident

168 207 260 254

Year

Figure 8. Number of accident at infant stage of Shinkansen

- Demand of flight between Seoul~Daegu

slashed by 71.5%, Seoul~Busan by 29.5%

- Shinkansen between Tokyo~Nagoya brought

air travel down to zero in four years of

operation

Influences Since KTX Operation

Distance

Transport means

1963 1964 1965 1966 1967

Tokyo

~

Nagoy

a

Railway(number

of passenge

r)

5.078 mil.

(96%)

6.116 mil.

(97%)

6.955 mil.

(99%)

7.261 mil.

(99.7%)

8.323 mil.

(99.9%)

Air218,000

(4%)291,000

(3%)94,000(1%)

22,000(0.3%)

11,000(0.1%)

Total5.296 mil.

6.407 mil.

7.049 mil.

7.283 mil.

8.334 mil.

Figure 9. Railway-Flight ratio between Tokyo~Nagoya

KTX Shinkansen

Number of passenger

62,000 60,538

Performance against demand

forecast44.6% 46.4%

Punctuality 98.9%(by 10 min.)

21 cases of more-than-two-hour delayAverage delay per unit vehicle is 1.7

min.

Operation dysfunction

(number of cases)136 214

OutcomeFlight to Busan down by

30%Flight to Osaka down by 33%

Figure 10. Comparison of KTX-Shinkansen Performances

Improvement measures

- First, in order to create more needs, it is necessary to come up with strategic planning of restoration of connecting transportation, various rate system, improvement of ride comfort, attracting more office workers during week days, more family and group passengers over weekends.

- Second, punctuality is immediately related to reliability and trains should be operated on time.

- Third, problems with rolling stock, signal dysfunction and transmission, facilities must be solved to secure safety, in rail equipment as well.

- Finally, the second phase of high speed rail onstruction should complete at the earliest to maximize efficiency.

THANK YOU

Q&As