acm 97 laws of predictions gordon bell microsoft the folly 1.0
TRANSCRIPT
ACM 97
Laws
of Predictions
Gordon Bell
Microsoft
The Folly 1.0
ACM 97
ACM 97ACM 97THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
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Copyright Copyright 1997 ACM, Association for Computing 1997 ACM, Association for Computing
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THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTINGTHE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97James BurkeJames Burke
Master of CeremoniesMaster of Ceremonies
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ACM 97GORDON BELL
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Laws
of Predictions
Gordon Bell
Microsoft
The Folly 1.0
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I think there is a world I think there is a world
market for maybe five market for maybe five
computers.computers.
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”” Thomas Watson Senior, Chairman of IBM, 1943
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Harvard Mark I aka IBM ASCC
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Predictions require Predictions require some history.some history.
The computer hadn’t been invented.
Watson’s prediction held for 10 years.
You need history to predict.ACM 97ACM 97
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Navy Delphi Panel1969
Card readers will peak at 1500 Card readers will peak at 1500 cards per minute by 1974 and cards per minute by 1974 and then their use will decline.then their use will decline.
Advances in cores, wire, and thin Advances in cores, wire, and thin film will provide large memories film will provide large memories with one million words by 1976.with one million words by 1976.
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I’ll bet we’ll be I’ll bet we’ll be
manufacturing cores manufacturing cores
in 1980.in 1980.
H. LamireVP Manufacturing, Digital
1975
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A technology can come A technology can come from nowhere and wipe from nowhere and wipe you out!you out!
MOS memories and micros were introduced in 1972.
By 1976, MOS memories wiped out core memories.
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Moore’s Law 60%/yr. Memory -- 4 x size every 3 years
10 G
1 G
100 M
10 M
1 M
100 K
10 K
1 K
0.1 K1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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Moore’s Law predicts 2.55 Moore’s Law predicts 2.55 PetaBytes/chip in 30 years. PetaBytes/chip in 30 years.
On 1/97 a U.of Minn. team On 1/97 a U.of Minn. team stored one electron in a stored one electron in a cell at this density.cell at this density.
Nathan MyhrvoldMicrosoft, 1/97
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Top 108 reasons we predict
10. A vision and challenge
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Top 108 reasons we predict
10. A vision and challenge
7. To plan and avoid surprises– MBA schools say so– To maintain staff & budget
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Top 108 reasons we predict
10. A vision and challenge
7. To plan and avoid surprises– MBA schools say so– To maintain staff & budget
6. To extract great gobs of money– With a petaflops, we could …– It’s our “Grand Challenge” ...
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Top 108 reasons we predict
5. You have to: business plans, … grants
4. To stimulate new “zero growth” markets and lure investors into new ventures
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Top 108 reasons we predict
5. You have to: business plans, … grants
4. To stimulate new “zero growth” markets and lure investors into new ventures
3. A job. “Futurists” do it for pay.
2. To celebrate anniversaries and have conferences
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Top 108 reasons we predict
1. To bet on the future and earn $$$s.
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AT&T will not have AT&T will not have screwed up its screwed up its purchase of NCR by purchase of NCR by 1996.1996.
anon 1992 ($100)
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By 1997 By 1997 Video-on-Demand will Video-on-Demand will be available and be available and operating in six cities operating in six cities and...and...
Raj Reddy & Ed Lazowska1992 (winners get fed)
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By April 1, 2001 By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs 50% of the PCs and be in use.and be in use.
Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper,
loser gets fed)
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For short-term predictions, bet against the optimist.
They are likely to be wrong. Longer term, science-based
predictions have a good chance ... wait 11 years (Mead’s Rule)
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For short-term predictions, bet against the optimist.
They are likely to be wrong. Longer term, science-based predictions have a
good chance ... wait 11 years (Mead’s Rule)
Organizations usually behave poorer than anyone can predict
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““
Gordon Bell “ Future of Computing” at MIT, 1972
Future computers are BOTH cheaper Future computers are BOTH cheaper AND faster model positedAND faster model posited
Semiconductor companies may make the Semiconductor companies may make the computerscomputers
We need networks, else people are the We need networks, else people are the network that serve computersnetwork that serve computers
Semiconductors (bipolar) just improve Semiconductors (bipolar) just improve for 6 more yearsfor 6 more years
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Progress will continue for just 6 more years!
One generation beyond the product being worked on
If you are actually doing it as an engineer ... you tend to be very conservative
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”” Everything cyberizable Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!will be in Cyberspace!
Gordon Bell and Jim GrayACM, 1997
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Outline
Cyberspace: platforms, networks, and cyberization
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Outline
Cyberspace: platforms, networks, and cyberization
Some Laws from failed predictions Useful exponentials for prediction Computers we might predict
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Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
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Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
Pure bits Bit tokens State: places, things, and people State: physical networks
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“Everything will be in Cyberspace” Is this a challenge? Our goal?
Our quest? or Fate? Cyberization enables
new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content– Three evolutionary dimensions
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Region/Region/IntranetIntranet
CampusCampusHomeHome
BodyBody
WorldWorld
ContinentContinent
Cyberspace: A Network of ... Networks of ...
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DataData
Cyberspace: one, two or three networks?
TelephonyTelephony
TelevisionTelevision
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Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space
ComputationComputation
CommunicationCommunication CyberizationCyberization
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Some more Laws from failed predictions to guide the journey into Cyberspace
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There is no reason There is no reason anyone would want a anyone would want a computer in their home.computer in their home.
Ken OlsenPresident, Chairman and
founder of Digital, 1977
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““ ”” UNIX is Snake Oil.UNIX is Snake Oil.
Ken Olsen1987
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I wouldn’t put my I wouldn’t put my company on the company on the Internet.Internet.
Ken Olsen, ChairmanModular Computer Systems http://www.mod.com
ComputerWorld 1996
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Equating yourself to the average“user/buyer” is risky . . . unless you’re an average user.
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”” Navy Delphi Panel
Bernstein, 1969
Some form of voice I/O Some form of voice I/O will be in common use by 1978 will be in common use by 1978 at the latest!at the latest!
A computer will interpret A computer will interpret simple spoken sentences simple spoken sentences by 1975.by 1975.
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Speech systems will be Speech systems will be commercializedcommercialized because because all significantall significant steps have steps have
been made.been made.
Harry OlsenRCA Labs, 1962
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Speech typewriter:
Microphone analyzer code typer pages
With translation:
Microphone analyzer code translator code typer pages
Translated speech:
Microphone analyzer code translator code synthesizer output speech ACM 97ACM 97
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Speech predictions are optimistic and have been wrong.
Mobs and especially committees predict poorly.
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ISDN will be ubiquitousISDN will be ubiquitous
by 1985.by 1985.
Irwin Dorros, VP Long Lines ATT, 1981
“ Unfortunately, ISDN is still likely to become the ubiquitous connection, by default, for the next 5 years.”
Gordon Bell, ACM 1997
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Network bandwidth becomes available slower than the most conservative prediction.
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We under-estimate the devastating power ofcompanies & planners,
lawyers & government,
to foul up predictions.But to really foul up requires an econometric model!
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Parallel processing Parallel processing computer architectures computer architectures will be in use by 1975. will be in use by 1975.
Navy Delphi Panel1969
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In Dec. 1995 computers In Dec. 1995 computers with 1,000 processors with 1,000 processors will do most of the will do most of the scientific processing. scientific processing.
Danny Hillis 1990 (1 paper or 1 company)
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”” DARPA, 1985
Strategic Computing Initiative (SCI)
A 50 X LISP machineA 50 X LISP machine
Tom Knight, Symbolics
A 1,000 node multiprocessorA 1,000 node multiprocessor
Gordon Bell, Encore
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All of ~20 HPCC projects failed!ACM 97ACM 97
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Bell Prize winners 1987-1997
Speedup: 2000X
Moore’s law: 100X
Spend more: 2X
ECL CMOS:10X
‘87 ‘89 ‘91 ‘93 ‘95 ‘97
Teraflops
100 Gigaflops
10 Gigaflops
Gigaflops
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““ ”” Petaflops by 2010Petaflops by 2010
DOEAccelerated Strategic
Computing Initiative (ASCI)
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1997-2010: Over a 1997-2010: Over a Petaflops is possiblePetaflops is possible
Moore’s Law 100-450x Spend more ($100M $500M) 5x Centralization of centers 3x Commoditization (competition) 3x
Gordon Bell, ACM 1997
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Parallel processing is a constant distance away.
Our vision ... is a system of millions of hosts… in a loose confederation.
Users will have the illusion of a very powerful desktop computer through which they can manipulate objects.
Grimshaw, Wulf, et al CACM Jan. 1997
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Predictions are easy… especially about parallelism.
Doing is hard.
Predictions about parallelism were risky…now they are predictable.
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Vannevar Bush c1945
There will always be plenty of things to There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things.complicated things.
memex … stores all his books, records, and memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibilityspeed and flexibility
Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopediaMatchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia
Speech to textSpeech to text
Head mounted camera, dry photographyHead mounted camera, dry photography
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Steve ManninCyberspace
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Moore’s Law is based on data and understanding.
Faith in science and a vision can be used as a predictor…
but being Vannevar Bush and being really lucky helps!
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Predicting with datawhen change is exponential
Exponentials let you predict anything you want.
But beware of how you use them!
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1. We get more
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2. New overtakes old
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3. Things get cheaper
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4. Newer & cheaper wins?
Old
NewNew
Old
NewNew
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Bob Lucky, Vice President Bellcore, 1995
If we couldn’t predict the Web, If we couldn’t predict the Web,
what good are we?what good are we?
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Exponentials change everything
… you can’t see ‘em coming!
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Internetters growth
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
Internet GrowthInternet Growthextrapolated at 98% per yearextrapolated at 98% per year
World PopulationWorld Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per yearextrapolated at 1.6% per year
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
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Internetters growth
InternettersInternetters
PCsPCs
TVs & PhonesTVs & Phones
World PopulationWorld Population10000
1000
100
10‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
““1 Gp by 20001 Gp by 2000””NegroponteNegroponte
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Computing and communication predictions: processing, memory, and networks
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EDSAC (c1949)
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Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
11947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year
ProcessingProcessing
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Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
11947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year
StorageStorageBackboneBackbone
MemoryMemoryProcessingProcessing
Telephone ServiceTelephone Service17% / year17% / year
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Microprocessor performance100 G
10 G
Giga
100 M
10 M
Mega
Kilo1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Peak Peak Advertised Advertised
Performance Performance (PAP)(PAP)
Moore’sMoore’sLawLaw
Real AppliedReal AppliedPerformance Performance
(RAP) (RAP) 41% Growth41% Growth
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Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
1.E+21
1.E+18
1.E+15
1.E+12
1.E +9
1.E+61995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
20%= 20%= TeraopsTeraops
40%= 40%= PetaopsPetaops
60%= 60%= ExaopsExaops
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New overtakes old
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Processor performance
1000
100
10
1
0.1
0.011970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
RISC shiftRISC shift
CMOSCMOSmicroprocessormicroprocessor
BipolarBipolarprocessorsprocessors
VAXVAX
90009000
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Things get cheaper
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Computers by price are stable. Lower priced computers form!
new models come at constant price and increased effectiveness
constant performance, lower price computers come
and establish new use
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Newer & cheaper wins?
Old
NewNew
Old
NewNew
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“The mainframe is dead!… and for sure this time!”
PRICE
MainframeMainframe
ServerServer
PCPC
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Predictable computers The network computer
System-on-a-chip industry
Home Area Network
Body Area Network: “on body”, “Guardian Angel”
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CMU wearable computers
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MedtronicsImplanted
Cardioplastic
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4 Experts Predict BionicsWired, February 1997
Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005
Bionic Limbs 2013
Artificial Vision 2040
Bionic Person (unlikely)
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Observations on predicting Existence proofs are essential, otherwise
it’s faith and luck.
Numbers and data are our friends.
Bet on predictors who are grounded, intuitive, imaginative, and lucky.
Because it could, doesn’t mean it will.
It’s usually just the economics, stupid!
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Everything will be in cyberspace
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