Judgment & Decision Making+ Technology .Behavior Change

Gretchen ChapmanDepartment of Psychology

School of Arts & Sciences, Rutgers University

2 Modes of Decision Making

With your mind:Deliberative

With your gut:Intuitive

System 1 System 2Fast ParallelAutomaticEffortlessAssociativeSlow-learningEmotional

SlowSerialControlledEffortfulRule-governedFlexibleNeutral

Psychology of Decision Making• Normative Models: Rational or

normative models of decision making– e.g. economic theory

• Descriptive Models: How people actually make decisions– e.g., behavioral economics

• Decision biases = systematic differences between the two

Framing Effects Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for outbreak of an

unusual disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the program are as follows:

• Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 39, 341-350.

Gain Frame If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

(72%)

If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved. (28%)

Loss Frame If Program A’ is adopted, 400 people will die. (22%)

If Program B’ is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die. (78%)

Perception is driven by change (or comparison)

Can we use technology to harness decision psychology to

encourage good behavior?

be healthy

Pedometers• Encourage walking• Track progress• Provide feedback

Research Question• Is feedback more motivating when it is

compared to a reference point?

Chapman, Colby, Convery, & Coups (in prep)Funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

2 weeks of active phase with open pedometer

1 week of baseline with sealed pedometer

Random assignment to a personal goalBaseline average

+ 10%Baseline average

+ 50%Baseline average

+ 100%

Study 1 (goal magnitude)

Walking Goals Study (N=145)

Low (n=49) Medium (n=49)

High (n=50)0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

69567664

6687

83088862

10220

7651

11483

13373

Baseline PeriodIntervention PeriodGoal

Experimental Goal Condition

LS M

ean

Step

s Pe

r Day

2 weeks of active phase with open pedometer

1 week of baseline with sealed pedometer

Random assignment to condition

Control Social Comparison

Study 2 (social comparison)

Social Comparison Study (N=64)

Control Group• Daily web log• Personal feedback only• Twice weekly reminder

emails

Social Comparison Group• Daily web log• Personal feedback +

social comparison¥

• Twice weekly social comparison emails

Web log compliance:75% 88%*

¥(Today’s steps – baseline average) as a percentile relative to performance by Study 1 participants.

02000400060008000

10000

6556 735473888508

Baseline PeriodIntervention Period

Experimental Condition

LS M

ean

Step

s Pe

r Day

2 weeks of active phase with open pedometer

1 week of baseline with sealed pedometer

Random assignment to condition

Count Up• Pedometer starts at 0• Counts up to goal

Count Down• Pedometer starts at goal• Counts down to zero

The Study That Never Was (counting up or down)

Counting Up vs. Down• The up/down pedometers were not

accurate• Participants (N=14) complained• Study discontinued

Walking Study• People walk more with a goal• Higher goals are better• Social comparisons act like a goal

• Results are in line with theories of reference points

The power of social norms

Prosocial Motivation

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Hand hygiene prevents you from catching diseases

Hand hygiene prevents patients from catching diseases

Grant & Hoffman, 2011

Conclusions

• Technology provides, information, feedback, & prompts

• Psychological principles can be harnessed to make those more effective– Reference points– Social comparisons & social norms– Prosocial motives?

• We need field experiments to find out if these interventions really work

Thank you

Gretchen ChapmanDepartment of Psychology School of Arts & Sciences

Rutgers Universitygretchen.chapman@rutgers.edu