actions you can take in volatile market linkedin
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Financial planning services and investments offered through Ameriprise Financial
Services, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. © 2008 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actions You Can Take in a Volatile MarketNow more than ever, you need a plan
Benjamin Glover
Today’s agenda
How we arrived where we are today
Putting today’s markets in historical perspective
Fundamental investment strategies to help you deal with
and even find opportunity in volatile markets
Managing emotions as part of the investment process
Steps to consider taking now
Ameriprise Financial
What we learned in our 110-year history
More people come to Ameriprise Financial for
financial planning than any other company*
Ameriprise is America’s largest financial
planning company*
* Based on the number of financial plans annually disclosed in Form ADV, Part 1A, Item 5, available at adviserinfo.sec.gov as of December 31, 2007, and the
number of CFP® professionals documented by the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc.
Our four cornerstones
What’s been driving recent
market volatility?
An oversupply of lending which drove up home values and
resulted in the eventual collapse of the U.S. housing market
Repercussions from the subprime mortgage crisis which
spread to global capital markets
The residual impact of the current credit crisis and the
follow-on effect it has had on the global economy
I read the news today
> Real estate prices collapse
> Largest one-day loss in the Dow
Jones Industrial Average
> Sub-prime bond market collapses,
real estate continues to decline, credit
dries up, savings institutions weaken
> Government bailout is enacted.
Billions of taxpayer dollars spent to
deal with failing lending institutions
> Recession sets in leading to
another stock market decline
1987-1991
Crisis events and subsequent
market performance
Source: Ned Davis Research
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
A familiar pattern
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Monthly)
Copyright © 2008 Thechartstore.com
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that follows the returns of 30 well-established
American companies, and is frequently used as a general measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in the
market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions and other fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1926 1940 1960 1980 2000
The ―flaw‖ of averages
S&P 500 Annual Returns 1926-2007
Ibbotson. Calendar year total returns of S&P 500 Index assuming reinvestment of all dividends and capital gains. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index
commonly used to measure stock performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Measuring volatility
S&P 500 stock index 1976-2007:
Average return is about 14%
Standard deviation (volatility) has
been about 15%
Range of returns is about 44% to -17%
14%
29%
44%
-2%
-17%
The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a
guarantee of future results.
The stock market has delivered over
the long term
From 1966 through 2007, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 10.2% per year
Returns in a given calendar year ranged from -26% to +37%
Below -20% -20% – -10% -10% – 0% 0% – +10% +10% – +20% Over +20%
2002 2001 2000 2007 2006 2003 1983
1974 1973 1990 2005 2004 1999 1982
1966 1981 1994 1988 1998 1980
1977 1993 1986 1997 1975
1969 1992 1979 1996 1967
1987 1976 1995
1984 1972 1991
1978 1971 1989
1970 1968 1985
Source: Ned Davis Research.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500 Index) is an unmanaged list of common
stocks which includes 500 large companies, and is frequently used as a general measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all
distributions and changes in the market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Historical range of returns of S&P 500:
1970-2008*
1 year 5 years 10 years 20 years
61.18
29.63 19.21 18.26
9.94
2.88-3.77
-38.94
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Market Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged list of common stocks frequently used as a measure of market performance. The index reflects
reinvestment of all distributions and changes in market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. The highest return is represented by the top of
each bar and the lowest annual return is shown at the bottom. The rolling 5-,10- and 20-year ranges are also shown. Over time, lower performing years will be offset
by higher performing years and vice versa. Therefore the range of the historical returns over the entire period is narrower than the range of returns in any single year.
Returns over 1 year in length are annualized. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Returns by decade
Decade# of years
down# of years up 0–18%
# of years up 18%+
Average annual return for decade
1920s 3 2 5 8.77%
1930s 6 0 4 -0.05%
1940s 3 2 5 9.17%
1950s 2 2 6 19.35%
1960s 3 4 3 7.81%
1970s 3 3 4 5.86%
1980s 1 3 6 17.55%
1990s 1 3 6 18.20%
Average 2.75 2.375 4.875 10.83%
1920s 3 2 5 8.77%
1930s 6 0 4 -0.05%
1940s 3 2 5 9.17%
1950s 2 2 6 19.35%
1960s 3 4 3 7.81%
1970s 3 3 4 5.86%
1980s 1 3 6 17.55%
1990s 1 3 6 18.20%
Average 2.75 2.375 4.875 10.83%
Source: Ibbotson. S&P 500 Index returns assume reinvestment of all dividends and capital gains. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to
measure stock market performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Where we stand in the current decade
-9.10%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-11.88%
-22.9%
28. 37%
10.87%
4.91%
15.79%
5.49%
?
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
?
Source: S&P Fact Book. Annual Returns of S&P 500 Index, 2000-2007, assuming reinvestment of dividends. The average annual total return for the period 12/31/99
to 12/31/07 was 3%. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock market performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an
index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Comparing this decade to others
Annualized performance of the S&P 500
19.35%
20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s(1925 – 1929) (2000 – 2007)
8.77%
-0.05%
9.17%7.81%
5.86%
17.55%
1.66%
18.20%20
15
10
5
0
-5
Source: Ibbotson. S&P 500 Index returns assume reinvestment of all dividends and capital gains. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to
measure stock market performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Markets don’t move in a linear fashion
Stocks tend to bounce back after five-year periods of negative performance
-5.10%
-11.24%-12.47%
-9.93%-7.51%
-2.36%-0.20% -0.59% -.057%
-2.29%
22.47%
14.29%
10.67% 10.91%
17.87%
14.76% 14.10% 12.83%
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-151927–1931
1932–1936
1929–1933
1933–1937
1929–1933
1934–1938
1930–1934
1935–1939
1937–1941
1942–1946
1970–1974
1975–1979
1973–1977
1978–1982
1998–2002
2003–2007
1999–2003
2000–2004
2004–2008
Source: Ibbotson. Losses are based on Large-Capitalization U.S. Stocks, based on annualized performance of the Standard & Poor's 500® Index through the
five calendar-year periods ending on the dates shown. Returns assume reinvestment of all dividends and capital gains. It is not possible to invest directly in an
index. Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500 Index) is an unmanaged list of common stocks which includes 500 large companies, and is frequently used as a
general measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in the market prices, but excludes brokerage
commissions or other fees. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Long-term investing strategies
Diversify to manage business, market, and interest rate risk
Rebalance your portfolio if it is appropriate
Consider the current and future tax ramifications of
your actions
Dollar-cost average to keep your investment strategy
on track
Manage your emotions by following a disciplined plan based
on solid fundamentals, not emotion
*Data as of 12/31/07. The table above shows how various asset
classes and a hypothetical diversified portfolio based upon equal
weighting of each of the asset classes have performed from 2000–
2007. Sources: Lipper, Inc., Thomson/InvestmentView and Wilshire
REIT Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Diversification helps you spread risk throughout your portfolio, so
investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do
relatively better. Diversification and asset allocation do not
guarantee overall portfolio profit and do not protect against loss. The
above performance is not intended to represent any specific
investment. It is not possible to invest directly in any of the
unmanaged indices shown above. All performance shown assumes
reinvestment of interest and does not include the expenses of
managing a mutual fund. Every investor has unique goals and
tolerance for risk. Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the
performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000
Index with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth
values. Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the
1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index with lower price-
to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. MSCI EAFE
Index is designed to measure the performance of the developed
stock markets of Europe, Australia and the Far East, weighted by
capitalization. Russell 2000® Value Index contains those Russell
2000 securities with lower price-to-book ratios. Russell 2000®
Growth Index contains those Russell 2000 securities with higher
price-to-book ratios. Russell Midcap® Index consists of the smallest
800 companies in the Russell 1000 Index, as ranked by total market
capitalization. Lehman Brothers High Yield Bond Index covers the
universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt. The Index
includes both corporate and noncorporate sectors. Lehman Brothers
Aggregate Bond Index is composed of corporate, U.S. Government,
mortgage-backed and Yankee bonds with an average maturity of
approximately 10 years. Wilshire REIT Index is an unmanaged
group of publicly-traded real estate investment trusts. Diversified
Portfolio assumes quarterly rebalancing and an equal weighting in
each of the listed indices. This is for illustrative purposes only and
does not reflect the performance of any specific investment.
n Large Cap Growth: Russell 1000® Growth Index
n Large Cap Value: Russell 1000® Value Index
n Int’l Stocks: MSCI EAFE Index
n Small Cap Value: Russell 2000® Value Index
n Small Cap Growth: Russell 2000® Growth Index
n Mid Cap Stocks: Russell Mid Cap® Index
n High Yield Bonds: Lehman Brothers High Yield Bond
Index
n Bonds: Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index
n Real Estate: Wilshire REIT Index
n Diversified Portfolio: Hypothetical portfolio with quarterly
rebalancing and an equal weighting in each of the
indices listed
REAL
ESTATE
31.04%
SMALL CAP
VALUE
22.83%
BONDS
11.63%
MID CAP
STOCKS
8.25%
LARGE CAP
VALUE
7.01%
DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO
1.14%
HIGH YIELD
BONDS
-5.86%
INT’L
STOCKS
-13.96%
LARGE CAP
GROWTH
-22.42%
SMALL CAP
VALUE
14.02%
REAL
ESTATE
12.35%
BONDS
8.44%
HIGH YIELD
BONDS
5.28%
DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO
-1.87%
LARGE CAP
VALUE
-5.59%
MID CAP
STOCKS
-5.62%
LARGE CAP
GROWTH
–20.42%
INT’L
STOCKS
-21.21%
BONDS
10.25%
REAL
ESTATE
3.58%
HIGH YIELD
BONDS
-1.41%
SMALL CAP
VALUE
-11.43%
DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO
-11.74%
LARGE CAP
VALUE
-15.52%
INT’L
STOCKS
-15.66%
MID CAP
STOCKS
-16.19%
LARGE CAP
GROWTH
-27.88%
SMALL CAP
GROWTH
48.54%
SMALL CAP
VALUE
46.03%
MID CAP
STOCKS
40.06%
INT’L
STOCKS
39.17%
REAL
ESTATE
36.18%
DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO
33.58%
LARGE CAP
VALUE
30.03%
LARGE CAP
GROWTH
29.75%
HIGH YIELD
BONDS
28.97%
BONDS
4.10%
REAL
ESTATE
33.16%
SMALL CAP
VALUE
22.25%
INT’L
STOCKS
20.70%
MID CAP
STOCKS
20.22%
DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO
16.63%
LARGE CAP
VALUE
16.49%
HIGH YIELD
BONDS
11.13%
LARGE CAP
GROWTH
6.30%
BONDS
4.34%
INT’L
STOCKS
14.02%
REAL
ESTATE
13.82%
MID CAP
STOCKS
12.65%
DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO
7.46%
LARGE CAP
VALUE
7.05%
LARGE CAP
GROWTH
5.26%
SMALL CAP
VALUE
4.71%
HIGH YIELD
BONDS
2.74%
BONDS
2.43%
REAL
ESTATE
35.97%
INT’L
STOCKS
26.86%
SMALL CAP
VALUE
23.48%
LARGE CAP
VALUE
22.25%
DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO
17.97%
MID CAP
STOCKS
15.26%
HIGH YIELD
BONDS
11.85%
LARGE CAP
GROWTH
9.07%
BONDS
4.33%
LARGE CAP
GROWTH
11.81%
INT’L
STOCKS
11.63%
BONDS
6.97%
MID CAP
STOCKS
5.60%
DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO
2.19%
HIGH YIELD
BONDS
1.87%
LARGE CAP
VALUE
-0.17%
SMALL CAP
VALUE
-9.78%
REAL
ESTATE
-17.55%
SMALL CAP
GROWTH
-22.43%
SMALL CAP
GROWTH
-9.23%
SMALL CAP
GROWTH
-30.26%
SMALL CAP
GROWTH
14.31%
SMALL CAP
GROWTH
4.15%
SMALL CAP
GROWTH
13.35%
SMALL CAP
GROWTH
7.05%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Historic volatility by standard deviation
S&P 500 Stock Index
1976-2007 14%
29%
44%
-2%
-17%
Lehman Aggregate
Bond Index 1976-2007
Stocks
Bonds23%
16%
9%
2%
-6%
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index, an unmanaged index, is made up of a representative list of
government, corporate, asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. The index is frequently used as a general measure of bond market performance. Standard &
Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500 Index), an unmanaged list of common stocks, is frequently used as a general measure of market performance. The index reflects
reinvestment of all distributions and changes in market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. You can not invest directly in an index.
Diversification options
Asset classes (stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, etc.)
Investment products (e.g. mutual funds, annuities, ETFs)
Tax characteristics (taxable, tax-deferred, tax-free)
Diversification does not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
Expected risk and return in any
single year
50% stocks/
50% bonds
This hypothetical example is provided for illustrative purposes only. It is not intended to represent the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy.
Investment products involve risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value.
On occasion returns may occur
above this point
On occasion returns may occur
below this point
Most of the time returns may
fall into this range
Some of the time returns may
fall into this range
Some of the time returns may fall
into this range
31.2%
19.8%
8.4%
-3%
-14.4%
65% stocks/
35% bonds
25.5%
16.6%
7.7%
-1.2%
-10.1%
Diversification can temper
market volatility
Performance of Stocks, Bonds and 50/50 Mix 1988 to 2007
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
1988 1998 2007
Past performance does not guarantee future results. These examples do not reflect sales charges, taxes or other costs associated with investing. Lehman
Brothers Aggregate Bond Index, an unmanaged index, is made up of a representative list of government, corporate, asset-backed and mortgage-backed
securities. The index is frequently used as a general measure of bond market performance. Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500 Index), an unmanaged list
of common stocks, is frequently used as a general measure of market performance. The index reflects reinvestment of all distr ibutions and changes in market
prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other fees. You can not invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index 50/50 MixLehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index
Rebalancing can keep you on plan
Initial allocation Rebalance backOne year later
50%
Bonds
50%
Stocks
50%
Stocks
50%
Bonds
40%
Bonds
60%
Stocks
Dollar-cost averaging – price rises
Average price: $15.00
Average cost: $14.19
Invested amount: $6,000.00
Ending value: $8,456.40
Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investors should consider their ability to continue investing
during periods of low markets. This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Dollar-cost averaging – market down,
then recovers
Average price: $15.00
Average cost: $13.85
Invested amount: $6,000.00
Ending value: $8,666.80
Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investors should consider their ability to continue investing
during periods of low markets. This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Dollar-cost averaging – market down,
partial rebound
Average price: $10.83
Average cost: $9.73
Invested amount: $6,000.00
Ending value: $6,166.70
Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investors should consider their ability to continue investing
during periods of low markets. This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Three different markets —
three positive results
Total invested – $6,000 in monthly $1,000 increments
Dollar-cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. Investors should consider their ability to continue investing
during periods of low markets. This illustration is hypothetical and is not a forecast or guarantee of specific investment results.
$10,000
$7,500
$5,000
Market goes up
$8,456
Market down:
full recovery
$8,667
Market down:
partial recovery
$6,167
Understanding emotional investing
Optimism
Relief
Hope―Things may be turning around.‖
Excitement
Thrill
Optimism
―Wow, I am
making money.
I feel good
about this
investment.‖
Euphoria Point of maximum financial risk
Fear
Denial―This is just a temporary setback.‖
Desperation
Anxiety
Panic
Capitulation
Despondency
―I think I need to sell.‖
Depression
Point of maximum financial opportunity
Source: Radarwire.com. A product of Simon Economic Systems, Ltd.
The average equity investor lags
the market
Equity market returns v. equity mutual fund investors’ returns
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Source: Dalbar, Inc., 2007 Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior for the period (1986 - 2006). Benchmark returns represented by total returns of the S&P 500.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Market Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged list of common stocks frequently used as a measure of market performance. You can
not invest directly in an index.
S&P 500 Index
11.8%
4.3%3.0%
Average equity
Fund investor
Inflation
How emotion can put investors on
the wrong path
Net inflows to equity mutual funds and subsequent
5-year returns
YearNet flows
(in $ billions)
5-year Avg.
Annual Return
1988 -$14.9 15.88%
2000 +$309.4 -2.30%
2002 -$27.6 6.19%
Source: Net inflows from Investment Company Institute. 5-year AATR represents total return of S&P 500 for five year period beginning in the year listed.
No taxes or fees are assumed. It is not possible to invest directly in the index.
Benefits of a personalized financial plan
Focuses on your goals, not short-term market conditions
Assesses your risk tolerance
Employs time-tested disciplines to dampen market
volatility, such as rebalancing, dollar-cost averaging and opportunity
purchases
Takes taxes into consideration
Helps you neutralize the inclination to make emotional investment
decisions
Provides for review and rebalancing on a regular basis
A financial plan can help you feel more on track during
market turmoil*
*The Financial Planning Association® (FPA®) and Ameriprise® Value of Financial Planning Study, was conducted by Harris Interactive in June/July, 2008
among 3,022 adults. While market volatility was significant during the study period, subsequent financial developments, which may have affected
attitudes and behaviors, had not yet occurred. No estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated; a full methodology is available.
Steps you can take
Saving and Building
Market volatility may be a new
experience for you
Your portfolio may be heavily
weighted in equities
You may feel tempted to sit on the
sidelines for awhile until things
settle down
Smart choices in uncertain times
Stay invested so you don’t miss out on the upside
Dollar-cost average through your workplace retirement plan
Diversify your portfolio
Have a cash reserve
Missing the best days
S&P 500 Index 1977 - 2007
For illustrative purposes. The index reflects reinvestment of all distributions and changes in market prices, but excludes brokerage commissions or other
fees. The chart shows the S&P 500 total return. Dividends are reinvested. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.
All 7,571 Trading Days
Miss the Best 10 Days
Miss the Best 20 Days
Miss the Best 30 Days
Miss the Best 40 Days
0% 5% 10% 15%
12.90%
10.88%
9.40%
8.09%
6.89%
The benefits of diversification
Initial investment: $10,000
Hypothetical example. Rate of return is for illustration purposes only and is not meant to represent any specific investment. Yields are hypothetical compounded rates of return. The actual value and returns on most investments will fluctuate. It does not take into account any federal or state taxes that may apply. Diversification and asset allocation help spread risk throughout your portfolio, so that investments that do poorly may be balanced by others that do relatively better. Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee overall portfolio profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
6%
8%
12%
4%
Ben Kent
8%
LOSE
The benefits of diversification
25 years later, Kent has earned $23,367 more
Hypothetical example. Rate of return is for illustration purposes only and is not meant to represent any specific investment. Yields are hypothetical compounded rates of return. The actual value and returns on most investments will fluctuate. It does not take into account any federal or state taxes that may apply.
6%
$42,919
8%
12%
$66,286
4%
$42,500
$17,121
$6,665
Ben Kent
8%
*The Financial Planning Association® (FPA®) and Ameriprise® Value of Financial Planning Study, was conducted by Harris Interactive in June/July, 2008 among
3,022 adults. While market volatility was significant during the study period, subsequent financial developments, which may have affected attitudes and
behaviors, had not yet occurred. No estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated; a full methodology is available.
Preparing and protecting
You’ve experienced market
volatility before
Though time is still your ally,
retirement is closer so you have
less time to recover
You feel challenged to protect what
you have and grow your wealth
Smart moves in uncertain times
Rebalance your portfolio
Re-assess your risk tolerance
Reduce portfolio volatility
Raise cash to fill up reserves
Plan for five key risks in retirement and your
withdrawal strategy
Be flexible
Five key risks your retirement plan
should address
Market volatility
Longevity
Tax risks
Health care
Unexpected events
The Ameriprise Financial Retirement
Income Framework
Ameriprise Bank, FSB, member FDIC, provides certain deposit and lending products and services for Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Ameriprise Bank, FSB
products are FDIC-insured to at least $250,000 per depositor. Investment products, including shares of mutual funds, are not federally or FDIC-insured, are not
deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value. The
Ameriprise ONE® Financial Account is a brokerage account with cash management features. Investments, brokerage and investment advisory services are made
available through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC.
Sources of
Income
Short-Term Assets
Long-Term
AssetsContingent
Cash Flows
LegacyDreamsNeeds
Paycheck
Cash HubAmeriprise ONE®
Financial Account
Determining a safe rate of withdrawal
Portfolio of 50% stocks/50% intermediate-term bonds
For illustrative purposes only. Ameriprise Financial cannot guarantee financial results.
Source: Ibbotson Presentation Materials, © 2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Each hypothetical portfolio has an initial
starting value of $500,000. It is assumed that a person retires on December 31, 1972, and withdraws an inflation-adjusted percentage of the initial portfolio wealth
($500,000) each year beginning in 1973. Each monthly withdrawal is adjusted for inflation. Each portfolio is rebalanced monthly. Government bonds are guaranteed
by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while stocks are not guaranteed and have been more
volatile than the other asset classes. Sources of information:
Stocks: Standard & Poor’s 500®, which is an unmanaged group of securities and is considered to be representative of the stock market in general; bonds: five-year
U.S. Government Bond; inflation: Consumer Price Index.
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
Withdrawal Rates
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
An individual who began taking inflation-adjusted withdrawals
of 5% at age 65 in 1972 would have seen their portfolio last
until approximately 1995 at age 88.
*The Financial Planning Association® (FPA®) and Ameriprise® Value of Financial Planning Study, was conducted by Harris Interactive in June/July, 2008 among
3,022 adults. While market volatility was significant during the study period, subsequent financial developments, which may have affected attitudes and
behaviors, had not yet occurred. No estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated; a full methodology is available.
Accessing and preserving
your money
Your retirement security is
challenged by market volatility
Portfolio losses can leave a lasting
mark in retirement
You might think that stocks are no
longer appropriate for your portfolio
Smart moves in uncertain times
Know your risk tolerance
Be realistic about your withdrawals
Understand the impact of volatile markets
Maintain a sufficient cash reserve
Plan for the unexpected
Be flexible
The impact of volatility on income portfolios
Beginning value $100,000
YearAnnual return
End value w/$5,000 withdrawals*
1 20% $114,000
2 6% $115,540
3 0% $110,540
4 -6% $99,208
5 -20% $75,366
Sarah starts retirement Bill starts retirement
YearAnnual return
End value w/$5,000 withdrawals*
1 -20%
2 -6%
3 0%
4 6%
5 20%
YearAnnual return
End value w/$5,000 withdrawals*
1 -20% $76,000
2 -6% $66,740
3 0% $61,740
4 6% $60,144
5 20% $66,173
Distributions occur at the beginning of each year. This illustration is hypothetical and is not meant to represent any specif ic investment.
The Ameriprise Financial Retirement
Income Framework
Ameriprise Bank, FSB, member FDIC, provides certain deposit and lending products and services for Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Ameriprise Bank, FSB
products are FDIC-insured to at least $250,000 per depositor. Investment products, including shares of mutual funds, are not federally or FDIC-insured, are not
deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value. The
Ameriprise ONE® Financial Account is a brokerage account with cash management features. Investments, brokerage and investment advisory services are made
available through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC.
Sources of
Income
Short-Term Assets
Long-Term
AssetsContingent
Cash Flows
LegacyDreamsNeeds
Paycheck
Cash HubAmeriprise ONE®
Financial Account
Determining a safe rate of withdrawal
Portfolio of 50% stocks/50% intermediate-term bonds
For illustrative purposes only. Ameriprise Financial cannot guarantee financial results.
Source: Ibbotson Presentation Materials, © 2005 Ibbotson Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. Each hypothetical portfolio has an initial
starting value of $500,000. It is assumed that a person retires on December 31, 1972, and withdraws an inflation-adjusted percentage of the initial portfolio wealth
($500,000) each year beginning in 1973. Each monthly withdrawal is adjusted for inflation. Each portfolio is rebalanced monthly. Government bonds are guaranteed
by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while stocks are not guaranteed and have been more
volatile than the other asset classes. Sources of information:
Stocks: Standard & Poor’s 500®, which is an unmanaged group of securities and is considered to be representative of the stock market in general; bonds: five-year
U.S. Government Bond; inflation: Consumer Price Index.
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
Withdrawal Rates
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
An individual who began taking inflation-adjusted withdrawals
of 5% at age 65 in 1972 would have seen their portfolio last
until approximately 1995 at age 88.
Chances of success based
on withdrawal rate
Probability of Success
Withdrawal Rate
Indices: cash—30-day T bills
Bonds—US Intermediate Govt., plus Median Premium of LEHB Agg Index to 1976, then LEHB Agg Index
Stocks—CRSP NY/AM/NM 1-10 TR
For illustrative purposes only. Ameriprise Financial cannot guarantee financial results.
Conservative
Moderate Conservative
Moderate
Moderate Aggressive
Aggressive
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Chances of success based
on withdrawal rate
Portfolio Composition Cash/Bonds/Equities
3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Conservative: 20/45/35 99% 84% 48% 16% 0% 0% 0%
Mod. Cons.:15/35/50 99% 87% 61% 29% 10% 0% 0%
Moderate: 10/25/65 99% 88% 68% 40% 19% 7% 0%
Mod. Agg.: 10/15/75 99% 88% 70% 46% 25% 11% 0%
Aggressive: 10/0/90 98% 88% 73% 52% 32% 18% 0%
Chance of
Success
(liquidity
through
retirement)
Annual Withdrawal Rate
For illustrative purposes only. Ameriprise Financial cannot guarantee financial results.
Six steps to consider taking now
1. Diversify, diversify, diversify
2. Rebalance or review your asset allocation
3. Dollar-cost average
4. Avoid market timing, but prepare for opportunities
5. Don’t let your emotions affect your financial future
6. Get or review your financial plan
Next steps
Let’s get started.
Financial planning services and investments offered through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC.
© 2008 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
[Benjamin Glover 919-227-3170