Activities in the Fiscal Year 2005in Korea

The 11th AIM International Workshop Feb. 19-21, 2006

NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Tae Yong Jung (World Bank, USA)Dong Kun Lee (Seoul National University, Korea)So Won Yoon (Seoul National University, Korea)

Eun Young Kim (Seoul National University, Korea)

Contents

1. Introduction1. Introduction

2. General Situation 2. General Situation

3. Current Policies3. Current Policies

5. Conclusion5. Conclusion

4. Scenario Setting & Results4. Scenario Setting & Results

1. Introduction

The deterioration of air quality from rapid industrialization and the soaring number of vehicles on the road is one of the most striking changes that Korea experienced during the process of achieving unprecedented economic and social growth.

The MoE sets up air quality improvement targets on 6 major air pollutants including carbon dioxide, ozone, and particulate matters, but also introduced practical measures to pave the way towards achieving these goals.

Special Measures for Metropolitan Air Quality Improvement, a landmark policy that stipulates emission standards, a total air pollution load management system, an emissions trading system, and the supply of low emission vehicles.

To analyzes the practical policies related to low emission vehicles scenarios along with projections of key determinants in the transport sector in this area.

2. General Situation

Air quality in MA (metropolitan area) in Korea : the lowest among the OECD countries96% in the rate of the number of ozone warning, 80% in the rate of excess environmental standard of NO2 and 64% of PM are happed in MA ('02)

71

20 20

40

2837

25 2229 30

01020304050607080

S e o u l ( '01) Lo n d o n ('01) P a r i s ( '01) T o k y o ('00) Ne w

Y o r k ('97)

TSP(㎍/㎥) NO2(ppb)

2. General Situation

Korea USA England Japan Germany

Number of vehicle per 1km road

142 34 84 63

10,220

199

Travel distance (km) per one

vehicle

21,266 20,313 16,503 -

Number of V./km Road & Travel distance

Main device each vehicleMain device each vehicle

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

ICV(Internal Combustion Vehicle)

HEV(Hybrid Eclectic Vehicle)

FCV(Fuel Cell Vehicle)

Enginesmall GeneratorBattery

EngineMotor/GeneratorPCU(Power Control Unit)Battery/HV Relay

Fuel CellMotorPCU(Power Control Unit)Battery/HV Relay

FCV

HEVICV

Mega Trend of Car IndustryMega Trend of Car Industry

High voltage Engine

Extinction

2. General Situation

2. General Situation

Electric V. H V. Fuel Cell V. Hybrid V.

Mileage(km) 215 350 355(H 350bar) Superior than general V.

Maximum Speed (kph)

125 226 140 165

Price 495 (ten thousand yen)

960(ten thousand

yen)/year(lease cost)

226(ten thousand yen)

Ref. : KISTI(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information) , 2004

Comparison with low emission Vehicles

3. Current Policies

Hybrid car – The first Korean-made hybrid car

¥"Click¥" starts operation on November 8, 2004. Four hybrid-powered vehicles were delivered to the Ministry of Environment

– Supply plan : ‘04-’06 : 780, ’07 : 1,195 ’08 2,195

– The Ministry plans to provide financial assistance of 28 million Korean won in supplying hybrid cars to the Korean National Police Agency, Metropolitan Governments, NGOs, the Ministry of Transportation and Construction, and the Ministry of Health and Welfare.

Small passenger car (1,400cc)

Hybrid Gasoline vehicle

Total (g/㎞) 0.199(100) 0.315(158) 0.95(477)

CO 0.160 0.258 0.86

NOx 0.025 0.031 0.02

HC 0.014 0.026 0.07

Fuel Efficient (㎞/ℓ) 18.9 13.1 7.2

Air pollutant emission(㎏)

3.98 6.3 19

Energy use(ℓ) 1,058 1,527 2,778

Cost of energy use/year(1000won)

1,587(100) 2,291(144) 4,167(263)

Air pollutant Emission

Large passenger

car (3,500cc)

3. Current Policies

Comparison between hybrid V. and gasoline V. low emission V.

Natural gas bus – MOE has started operating natural gas

vehicles (NGVs) in replacement of diesel buses with long operation length and high emissions discharge.

– As of May 2004, 4,876 diesel vehicles were replaced with NGVs, and 20,000 diesel vehicles, which account for 48% of the total diesel vehicles nationwide, will be replaced with NGVs by 2007.

– as a policy to control in-use diesel vehicles that are not subject to the replacement, the Ministry is promoting another project to encourage the attachment of Diesel Particulate Filters (DPF) and Diesel Oxidation Catalysts (DOC).

3. Current Policies

4. Scenario Setting

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

No policy ICV FCV R&D ICV promote HEV ICV

No policy HEV FCV R&D HEV promote HEV HEV

No policy FCV FCV R&D FCV promote HEV FCV

%

Ref : Market Share - James Sweeney, Stanford University

Precondition for setting Scenario – Sc 1 : No policy– Sc 2 : FCV R&D– Sc 3 :Promote HEV

projection of number of HEV

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

no policy FCV R& D Promote HEV

Projection of market shareProjection of number of HEV in Korea

– GRDP

Precondition for setting Scenario

4. Scenario Setting

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

man woman

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0-4

age

5-9a

ge10

-14a

ge15

-19a

ge20

-24a

ge25

-29a

ge30

-34a

ge35

-39a

ge40

-44a

ge45

-49a

ge50

-54a

ge55

-59a

ge60

-64a

ge65

-69a

ge70

-74a

ge75

-79a

ge

abov

e 80

age

1980 man 1980 woman 2030 man 2030 woman

(thousand pop.)

Precondition for setting Scenario - Population

4. Scenario Setting

4. Scenario Setting

Ref : Market Share - James Sweeney, Stanford University

Scenario Setting

Scenario Description

No change Present share will not change by 2030

compete New car, hybrid car, fuel cell car compete by 2030

HEV Hybrid electric vehicle will take 21.8% shares in 2030

HEV & FCV

Hybrid electric vehicle and fuel cell vehicle will take 26%, 7.7% shares in 2030

Promote HEV

Hybrid electric vehicle will take 100% shares in 2030

Keep the present (2001)Energy Consumption

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

10 6̂ GJ

AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_3 JEEP_1 JEEP_3 JEEP_5 LARG_1 LARG_3 LARG_5 LBUS_1

LBUS_3 MBUS_1 MEDI_1 M EDI_3 M TA1_1 M TA2_1 SBUS_1 SBUS_3 SBUS_5 SHIP_1 SHIP_2

SM AL_1 SM AL_3 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1 TRU1_3 TRU1_5 TRU2_1 TRU3_1

Energy Consumption

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

10 6̂ GJ

AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CMAL_3 CM AL_4 JEEP_1 JEEP_3 JEEP_4 JEEP_5 LARG_1 LARG_3

LARG_5 LARG_6 LBUS_1 LBUS_2 LBUS_3 MBUS_1 M BUS_2 MEDI_1 M EDI_2 MEDI_3 M EDI_4

M EDI_6 M TA1_1 M TA1_2 M TA2_1 M TA2_2 SBUS_1 SBUS_2 SBUS_3 SBUS_4 SBUS_5 SHIP_1

SHIP_2 SMAL_1 SM AL_2 SMAL_3 SM AL_4 SM AL_7 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1 TRU1_2

TRU1_3 TRU1_5 TRU1_6 TRU2_1 TRU2_2 TRU3_1 TRU3_2

Compete

4. Scenario Results

Energy Consumption

Energy Consumption

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

10 6̂ GJ

AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_2 CMAL_3 CMAL_4 CM AL_7 JEEP_1 JEEP_2 JEEP_3

JEEP_4 JEEP_5 JEEP_6 LARG_1 LARG_2 LARG_3 LARG_4 LARG_5 LARG_6 LARG_7

LBUS_1 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M BUS_2 MEDI_1 MEDI_2 M EDI_3 M EDI_4 MEDI_8 M TA1_1

M TA1_2 MTA2_1 M TA2_2 SBUS_1 SBUS_2 SBUS_3 SBUS_4 SBUS_5 SBUS_6 SHIP_1

SHIP_2 SMAL_1 SM AL_2 SM AL_3 SMAL_4 SM AL_9 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1

TRU1_2 TRU1_3 TRU1_4 TRU1_5 TRU1_6 TRU2_1 TRU2_2 TRU3_1 TRU3_2

HEV

Energy Consumption

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

10^6 GJ

AIR_1 AIR_2 CMAL_1 CM AL_2 CM AL_3 CM AL_4 CM AL_6 CMAL_7 JEEP_1 JEEP_2 JEEP_3

JEEP_4 JEEP_5 JEEP_6 LARG_1 LARG_2 LARG_3 LARG_4 LARG_5 LARG_6 LARG_7 LARG_8

LBUS_1 LBUS_2 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M BUS_2 MEDI_1 M EDI_2 MEDI_3 M EDI_4 M EDI_8 MEDI_9

M TA1_1 M TA1_2 MTA2_1 M TA2_2 SBUS_1 SBUS_2 SBUS_3 SBUS_4 SBUS_5 SBUS_6 SHIP_1

SHIP_2 SM AL_1 SM AL_2 SM AL_3 SMAL_4 SM AL_6 SM AL_9 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1

TRU1_2 TRU1_3 TRU1_4 TRU1_5 TRU1_6 TRU2_1 TRU2_2 TRU3_1 TRU3_2

HEV & FCVEnergy Consumption

4. Scenario Results

Energy Consumption

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

10^6 GJ

AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_3 CM AL_7 JEEP_1 JEEP_2 JEEP_3 JEEP_4 JEEP_5

JEEP_6 LARG_1 LARG_3 LARG_5 LARG_7 LBUS_1 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M BUS_2 M EDI_1

M EDI_3 M EDI_8 M TA1_1 M TA1_2 M TA2_1 M TA2_2 SBUS_1 SBUS_2 SBUS_3 SBUS_4

SBUS_5 SBUS_6 SHIP_1 SHIP_2 SM AL_1 SM AL_3 SMAL_9 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2

TRU1_1 TRU1_2 TRU1_3 TRU1_4 TRU1_5 TRU1_6 TRU2_1 TRU2_2 TRU3_1 TRU3_2

Promote HEV

4. Scenario Results

Energy Consumption

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

10 6̂ GJ

BAU compete HEV HEV&FCV Promote HEV

Energy Consumption

CO2 Emiss ions

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

130000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

10 8̂gCO2

BAU compete HEV HEV&FCV Promote HEV

CO2 Emissions

4. Scenario Results

NOx Emissions

4. Scenario Results

NOx Emiss ions

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

10 8̂gNOx

BAU compete HEV HEV&FCV Promote HEV

SO2 Emissions

4. Scenario Results

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

BAU compete HEV HEV&FCV Promote HEV

10 8̂gSO2

5. Conclusion

InvestmentInvestment TechnologyTechnology PoliciesPolicies

•The environmental policies and measures would be shifted to more market-oriented approaches rather than the conventional ‘command-

and-control’ type •Policy balance among sectors and policy integration is considered in more systematic way to achieve

multi-targets and goals.

•The environmental policies and measures would be shifted to more market-oriented approaches rather than the conventional ‘command-

and-control’ type •Policy balance among sectors and policy integration is considered in more systematic way to achieve

multi-targets and goals.

• Current Technology Level: Fuel cell car is very promising for the

future cars, but high cost.• Hybrid Car market will

be expanded for the immediate future

•.

• Current Technology Level: Fuel cell car is very promising for the

future cars, but high cost.• Hybrid Car market will

be expanded for the immediate future

•.

• Next Generation Core Technology Development :Future Vehicle Technology Basic infra & Roadmap 590 Bill. Won• Strategy Development for Technology Co-operations with Major Auto manufacturers and Auto Market Expansion• Strategy for China-Japan-Korea Collaboration

• Next Generation Core Technology Development :Future Vehicle Technology Basic infra & Roadmap 590 Bill. Won• Strategy Development for Technology Co-operations with Major Auto manufacturers and Auto Market Expansion• Strategy for China-Japan-Korea Collaboration