adaptation au changement climatique: les messages clés de la contribution ar5 gtii
TRANSCRIPT
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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
Atelier Événement parallèle COP22: Sensibilisation sur le Rôle, Activités et Conclusions du GIEC
HILMI K.
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Atelier Événement parallèle COP22: Sensibilisation sur le Rôle, Activités et Conclusions du GIEC
RAPPORTS AR5
www.ipcc.chWGI WGII/PartA WGII/PartB WGIII SYR
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Part A: Global and Sectoral AspectsContext for the AR5Natural and Managed Resources and Systems, and Their UsesFreshwater resources - Terrestrial and inland water systems Coastal systems and low-lying areas Ocean systems Food security and food production systems Human Settlements, Industry, and InfrastructureUrban Areas Rural Areas Key economic sectors and services Human Health, Well-Being, and SecurityHuman health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits Human security Livelihoods and poverty AdaptationAdaptation needs and options Adaptation planning and implementation
Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits Economics of adaptation Multi-Sector Impacts, Risks, Vulnerabilities, and OpportunitiesDetection and attribution of observed impacts Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development Part B: Regional AspectsRegional context Regional ChaptersAfrica Europe Asia Australasia North America Central and South America Polar Regions Small Islands The Ocean Annexes
Chapitres AR5/WGII
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Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation
Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk
Risk Level withHigh Adaptation
Risk-LevelVeryLow Med
VeryHigh
4°C2°C
Present
Long Term(2080-2100)
Near Term (2030-2040)
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The Ocean (WGI/AR5)
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The Ocean (WGI/AR5)
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The Ocean (WGI/AR5)
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The Ocean- Projections (2050-2100)
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The Ocean- Projections (2050-2100)
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Impacts (WGII/AR5)
GIEC/WGII/CHAP6
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Table SM30-4 | Projected changes in sea surface temperature (SST ºC) over the next 90 years for ocean sub-regions (Figure SM30-1) from AOGCM model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/). Simulations were available for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5…. The table is divided into two sections: “Nearterm (2010 – 2039)” (the average change in SST over the next 30 years) and “Long-term (2010 – 2099)” (the total change over 2010 – 2099, which was calculated by adding the average change of the three 30-year periods from 2010 to 2099). This is a simplifi ed method to account for slight non-linearity in SST change over the 90-year period.
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Benazzouz et al. (2013, 2015)
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Caranza (2008)
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Modified from Caranza (2008)
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Physical environ-ment
Fish stocks
Ecosystem
Coastal in-frastructure and fishing options
Inland fish-ing opera-tions and
livelihoods
Climate change impacts on fisheries
Ocean acidification
Warming of upper ocean layers
Higher water temperature
Salination + stratification
Sea level rise
Changes in ocean cur-rents and coastal up-welling
More extreme (floods, drou-ghts, storms) and ENSO events
Less predict-able seasons
Changing level of precipitation
IMPACTS Pot. outcomes for fisheries
Helping mecanisms
Knowledge base
studies on presu-mable impacts of CC early warning system new techologies adapt. measures
Governance: policy, legal and
implementation framework
planning and adaptation to CC Climate proofing of national strategies institutional de-velopment (cooper.)
Capacity building
Awareness raising Training
Fin. Mechanisms Microcredit PES Assurances against extreme events
Negative effects on calciferous animals including slowed rates of coral growth
Shifts and changes indistribution ofplankton, inverte- brates, fishes
Changes in timing ofproductivity
Declines in levels ofproductivitycalciferous marine ressources coastal fisheries target species also lake and river productivity coral-reef fisheries
Increased costs cost of adaptation increased risks of storms => costs of insurance and from damages
Increased vulnera-bility riparian, floodplain and coastal house- holds greater risks reduced diversity of rural livelihoods reduced income
Polewards shift:plankton and species Changes in timing of phytoplankton blooms Changing in zooplankton composition
Changes on physiology and sex ratios altered timing of spwaning, migration and peak abundance Incresed invasisve species, diseases and algal blooms Increased coral bleaching
Loss of coastal habitats Saline intrusion into freshwater habitats Loss of harbours, homes, tourist infras. Increased exposures of coastal areas to storm damage
Effects on abundance of species and fish recrutement
Changes in lake water levels, dry water flows in rivers Fewer days for fishing, increased risk of accidents Damage to productive assets + homes Aquaculture installations at greater risk of damage, damage of equipement and stuff of artisanal fishers
Decreased ability to plan seasonal livelihood activities
Decrease of precipitation => reduced oportunities for fishing and aquaculture, decrease of see water levels
Type of changes
Climatic drivers
Adaptation measures
Flexibility (types of gear, fished species, allocations that are harvested)Diversify livelihoods (e.g. IAA)Programs which address habitat and ecosystems: coastal management, wet-lands policies, resto-ration initiatives , codes of conductPlanning processes: integrate sustainable coastal livelihoods framework in fish-eries policies and programs Benefit from poten-tially new advan-tages (new species)Infrastructure (buil-ding new , restoring) => consider CCEarly warning sys-tem (storms etc. => radio, sms)Incentives for long-term sustainable re-ssource use: territ-orial use rights, co-mmunity quotas, long term exclusive rightsOrganization in e.g. Cooperatives
Source C. de Fontaubert, BM
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1880
1930
1930
1983
1983 2015
Source NASA/NOAA
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Merci de votre attention