adaptation committee - cop23.unfccc.int€¦ · the process to formulate and implement naps. to...

TenthmeetingoftheAdaptationCommitteeBonn,Germany,13‐16September2016

Methodologiesforassessingadaptationneedswithaviewtoassistingdeveloping

countryParties,withoutplacinganundueburdenonthem

Backgroundnote

Mandate1.1. TheConferenceoftheParties(COP),byitsdecision1/CP.21,requestedtheAdaptationCommittee(AC),takingintoaccountitsmandatesanditssecondthree‐yearworkplan,andwithaviewtopreparingrecommendationsforconsiderationandadoptionbytheConferenceofthePartiesservingasthemeetingofthePartiestotheParisAgreement(PA)atitsfirstsession(CMA1),toconsidermethodologiesforassessingadaptationneedswithaviewtoassistingdevelopingcountryParties,withoutplacinganundueburdenonthem.1

2. Further,theAC,togetherwiththeLeastDevelopedCountriesExpertGroup(LEG)andincollaborationwithothers,hasbeenmandatedtodevelopmethodologiesandmodalitiesforsomeofthekeyprocesses(e.g.globalstocktake)emanatingfromthePA.ItisthereforeopportunefortheACtoconsidermethodologiesforassessingnationaladaptationneedswithinthecontextoftheserelatedprocessesandindeedParties’reportingobligationsundertheConvention,sothatrelevantassessmentsandprovisionofinformationcanbestreamlined,andnationalleveladaptationplanningandimplementationcanbebettersupportedbycoherentandcomprehensiveassessmentresults.

3. ThisbackgroundnoteintendstoprovideinitialinputstothediscussionsoftheACatitstenthmeetingonthismandatefromCOP21.Specifically,itpresentstheresultofaninitialdeskreviewonrelevantexistingmethodologiesandtheirapplicationsinassessingadaptationneeds(section2),includingasetofindicativeexamplesofsuchapplications(annex),andoutlinespossiblenextstepsfortakingthistaskforward(section3).

Methodologiesforassessingadaptationneeds–summaryofan2.initialdeskreview

2.1. Scopeoftheinitialdeskreview

4. WithoutattemptingtoprejudgethedecisionthattheACwouldtakeafterconsideringthismandateatits10thmeeting,thescopeoftheinitialdeskreviewcarriedoutwithinthisbackgroundnotereflectswhatthesecretariatunderstandstobeausefulstartingpointtoassisttheAC.Specifically,theterm“methodology”inthiscontextisunderstoodtobeasetorsystemofmethodsandtoolsusedtoguidetheactivities/tasksrequiredtoassessadaptationneeds.Withineachmethodologicalframework,thereare

1Decision1/CP.21,paragraph42(b).

AdaptationCommittee AC/2016/13

5September 2016Agendaitem4(b)

RecommendedactionbytheAdaptationCommittee

TheAdaptationCommittee(AC),atitstenthmeeting,willbeinvitedtoconsiderthedraftbackgroundnotewithaviewtoagreeingonnextstepstotakethistaskforwardasdescribedinsection4.

AC/2016/13 AdaptationCommittee

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methodsandtoolstofacilitateandenablespecificactivitiesandtasks.2Inaddition,adaptationneeds,forthepurposeoftheinitialdeskreview,3areunderstoodtoincludetheneedsfor:

a) adaptationaction;

b) financialsupport;

c) technologicalsupport;and

d) capacity‐buildingsupport.

5. Further,withinthecontextoftheConvention,theassessmentofadaptationneedstakesplacebothatglobalandnationallevels.Atagloballevel,theUNFCCCprocessutilizesinformationprovidedbyPartiesandotherrelevantsourcestoassesstheneedsforadaptationactionandsupportindevelopingcountries,inordertoassistdevelopingcountriesinmeetingsuchadaptationneeds.Similarly,Partiesassesstheirnationalneedsforadaptationactionandsupport,withinthebroadcontextofotherrelevantcontextsbothunderandoutsidetheConvention(e.g.theprocesstoformulateandimplementnationaladaptationplans(NAPs),adaptationcommunications,nationallydeterminedcontributions,nationalcommunications,andnationaldevelopmentplanningetc.).

6. Thereisarangeofon‐goingandemergingeffortswhichcouldpotentiallycontributetothedevelopment,refinementandapplicationofmethodologiesforassessingadaptationneeds,bothunderandoutsidetheConvention.ToassisttheACinitsconsiderationofthemethodologies,aninitialdeskreviewwascarriedouttosurveymajormethodologiesfor,andassociatedapplicationsin,assessingadaptationneeds,withaviewtoinitiatingdiscussionsonthismandate.

7. Theinitialdeskreviewinthisbackgroundnotefocusesonmethodologiesforassessingadaptationneedsatnationallevel,giventhatgloballevelassessmentundertheUNFCCCprocesswouldbebasedonnationallevelinformationprovidedbyPartiesandotherrelevantsourcesincludingtheIPCCassessmentreports.Inthisconnection,nationalleveladaptationneedsassessmentwouldbeakeyandintegralpartoftheprocesstoformulateandimplementNAPs.Toassistleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)withtheirNAPs,theLEG,followingasetofinitialguidelines,4developedtechnicalguidelines(UNFCCC,2012).Inadditiontoprovidingtechnicalguidanceonspecifictasks,theseguidelinesofferabroadframeworkforPartiestonavigatethroughaseriesofstepsintheadaptationprocess,includingassessingadaptationneeds(seefigure1below).

2Forexample,toassesstheimplicationsofclimatechangefortheeconomicviabilityofafarm,apossiblemethodologycouldbeatop‐downapproach,followingtheprocessofconstructinglocallevelclimatechangescenariosfromglobalclimatemodels,assessingimpactsofprojectedclimatechangeonfarm‐leveleconomicindicessuchascashcropyieldsandlivestockoutputsetc.Inperformingtheseassessmenttasks,methodsandtoolssuchasdownscaling(ofclimatemodelsandtheiroutputs),cropmodelingandeconomicevaluationtoolswouldbeused. 3ThisisnotintendedtoprejudgetheoutcomeoftheAC’sdiscussionsonthescopeofadaptationneedswithinthismandateduringAC10. 4Theinitialguidelinesarecontainedintheannextodecision5/CP.17.


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Figure1.PotentialkeyelementsandstepswithinanationaladaptationplanprocessasoutlinedintheNAPinitialandtechnicalguidelines

Source:Adoptedfromtable1ofUNFCCC,2012

8. Theremainderofthissectionreviewsrelevantmethodologiesalongthefourcategoriesofadaptationneeds:needsforadaptationactions,forfinancialsupport,fortechnologicalsupport,andforcapacity‐buildingsupport.Table1belowprovidesabriefsummaryofthekeyfeaturesofmethodologiesreviewedundereachcategory.ItalsohighlightsareaswherelimitationsexistiftheresultsfromtheadaptationneedsassessmentsweretosupporttherelevantprovisionsundertheConvention.

2.2. Methodologiesforassessingneedsforadaptationactions

9. Untilrecently,workonadaptationtoclimatechangehasbeendominatedbyassessmentsofclimatechangeimpactsandvulnerability.Consequently,alargenumberofmethodologicalapproaches,methodsandtoolshavebeendevelopedandappliedinclimatechangeimpactsandvulnerabilityassessments,atdifferentscalesandindifferentsectors.Theseapproachesinclude,amongothers:

a) “Impacts‐based”approachfocusingprimarilyonthebiophysicalclimatechangeimpactstowhichsocietiesandnaturalsystemsneedtoadapt(Carteretal.,1994;ParryandCarter,1998).Thisapproachaimstoevaluatetheimpactsofclimatechangeunderagivenscenarioandtoassesstheneedforadaptation(and/ormitigation);

b) “Vulnerability‐based”approachfocusingonthepropensitytobeharmed,thenseekingtomaximizepotentialbenefitsandminimizeorreversepotentiallosses(Adger,2006);

c) “Adaptation‐based”approachexaminingtheadaptivecapacityandadaptationmeasuresrequiredtoimprovetheresilienceorrobustnessofasystemexposedtoclimatechange(SmitandWandel,2006);

d) “Risk‐based”approachfocusingonsupportingdecisionmakingwhichcanbecharacterisedbylargeuncertainties,longtimeframes,opportunitiesforlearningovertime,andtheinfluenceofbothclimateaswellasothersocioeconomicandbiophysicalchanges(IPCC,2014).


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10. Theconceptualizationofriskandvulnerabilityinthepast15yearsorsohadledtomoreholisticandintegratedapproachestoassessment,underariskmanagementframeworkasshowninfigure2below.Ariskmanagementmethodologicalframeworkallowsfortheintegrationofclimatescienceandinsightsfrompractitionersandotherstakeholders.Italsounderlinesadaptationasaniterativeriskmanagementprocess,withlearningfrommonitoringandevaluationaswellasnewscientificinsightsinformingsubsequentround(s)ofadaptationneedsassessmentandadaptationplanning.

Figure2.Ageneralriskmanagementframeworkincludingtheriskandadaptationassessments(denotedassteps3,4and5)

Source:UKCIP,2011

11. Applicationsoftheseapproacheshavebeenwidespread,coveringglobal(e.g.UNEP,2014)aswellasnational(e.g.thoseconductedaspartofthenationalcommunicationstotheUNFCCC,andsubsequentlyasabasisfortheformulationofNAPsandothernationalclimatechange/adaptationprogrammes/projects)andlocallevelassessments.Inresponsetotheneedformoreintegratedassessmentinordertobepolicyrelevant,theemergentriskmanagementframeworkdoesrepresentapossiblewayforwardinassessingneedsforadaptationmeasuresandactiontoaddressclimaterisks.

2.3. Methodologiesforassessingfinancialsupportneeds

12. Assessingneedsforfinancialsupportentailsestimatesofthecostfornationaladaptationplansandprogramme,andavailabledomesticandinternationalresources.However,duetoahostofconceptualandtechnicalchallenges,5awidevarietyofmethodologieshavebeenadoptedbyPartiesinassessingtheirneedsforfinancialsupporttoimplementadaptationpoliciesandactionsundervariousnationalreportingprocesses(e.g.INDCsasreflectedinUNFCCC,2015;NAPs,nationalcommunications,NAPAsfromLDCsetc).AdetailedandmostrecentreviewofmethodologiesforassessingthecostsandbenefitsofadaptationandassociatedresultsfordevelopingcountriesisprovidedinEconadapt(2015).ThediversityinmethodologiesforassessingadaptationfinancialsupportneedshasbeenreflectedintheworkcarriedoutbytheStandingCommitteeonFinance(SCF)(e.g.UNFCCC,2014)andtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)(e.g.UNEP,2014).InspiteoftheeffortsoftheSCFinprovidinganoverviewoffinancialresourcescommitted/pledged/disbursedforadaptationincludingthroughitsbiennialanalysisandoverviewof5Someoftheconceptualchallengesincludethedefinitionofadaptationfinance(versusforexample,gooddevelopmentfinance);whiletechnicalchallengesincludetheuncertaintiesassociatedwithsectoralimpactsofprojectedclimatechange,theacceptablelevelofrisksinordertodefinethelevelofinterventionsrequired,aswellaskeyparametersforcostinginterventionssuchasthediscountingrateinestimatingthecostovertime.


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climatefinanceflows,6andofothers(e.g.UNEP,2016),informationonfinancialresourcesavailabletosupportadaptationremainspatchy,includingatnationallevel.Consequently,mostestimatesarelimitedtocostsofadaptation.

13. Withrelationtothe“demand”sideofadaptationfinance,reflectingtheprevailingadaptationfundingmechanismtodate,financialneedsforadaptationhaveoftenbeenestimatedataprogramme,projectoractivitylevel,onanadhocbasis.FinancialrequirementsareestimatedinthismannerformuchoftheNAPApriorityprojects,projectstobesupportedundertheLDCF,SCCFandtheinvestmentprogrammesinpilotcountriesofthePilotProgrammeforClimateResilienceundertheClimateInvestmentFund(seeA.2intheannexforanindicativeexample).Inaddition,aninvestmentandfinancialflowanalysisapproachwasappliedtoassesstheadaptationfinancialneedsatgloballevel,continentallevel(e.g.UNEP,2014)aswellasnationallevel(e.g.OECD,2008;UNFCCC,2007;WorldBank,2010;UNFCCC,2010;UNDP,2011).Morerecently,someParties,throughtheirINDCs,identifiedfinancialsupportneedsforadaptationatanationallevel,includingenvisagedfinancialsupportneedfromdomesticandinternationalsources.TheindividualfinancialsupportneedsasestimatedbyPartiesrangefromUSD100milliontoover200billionforthewholeINDCperiodandfromUSD10millionto3billionperyear(UNFCCC,2015).However,thereishardlyanydetailonthemethodologiesunderpinningtheseestimates

14. Assuch,thereareanumberofissueswiththeseexistingmethodologiesforassessingadaptationfinancialsupportneeds,includingadeficitinfinancialassessments(asopposedtoeconomic/costassessmentsofadaptationinterventions)toanalysethefinancialresourcesthatarepotentiallyavailabletosupportadaptation,alackoftransparencyindeterminingsomeofthekeycostingparameters(e.g.discountingrates,unitcostforcertaintypeofinfrastructure).

2.4. Methodologiesforassessingtechnologysupportneeds

15. Anumberofmethodologicaltoolshavebeendevelopedforassessingthetechnologyneedstosupportadaptation.ExamplesincludethosedevelopedundertheUNFCCCtoassistPartiesidentifytheirtechnologyneeds.Thetechnologyneedsassessment(TNA)providesthebasisforidentifyingaportfolioofenvironmentallysustainabletechnology.7TofacilitatetheTNAprocess,ahandbookwasdevelopedandoffersasystematicapproachforconductingTNAsinordertoidentify,evaluateandprioritizetechnologicalmeansforadaptationandmitigation.8Keystepsandconsiderationsasoutlinedinthehandbookaresummarizedinfigure3below.UndertheTNAprocess,countriescarriedout,tovariousextents,assessmentsoftechnologyneedsforadaptation.BuiltontheTNAresults,somecountriesdevelopedandcommunicateddetailedtechnologyactionplansforthedevelopmentandtransferofspecifictechnologies(UNFCCC,2013).AnillustrativeexampleofaTNAprocessisprovidedintheannex.

6DetailsonSCF’sbiennialassessmentreport2014aswellasonprogresstowardsthe2016reportareavailableat<http://www.unfccc.int/8043.php>. 7Availableat<http://unfccc.int/ttclear/templates/render_cms_page?TNA_home>. 8Thehandbookisavailableat<http://unfccc.int/ttclear/misc_/StaticFiles/gnwoerk_static/TNA_HAB_infobox_1/3a34f12bf10d4b7bae791d0d7ad572eb/c29096556b034760b94273b0124039ac.pdf>.


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Figure2.Keystepsinatechnologyneedsassessment

Source:UNDP,2010

2.5. Methodologiesforassessingcapacitysupportneeds

16. AsreportedbymanydevelopingcountryParties,thelackoftechnicalandinstitutionalcapacityremainsamajorbarriertoadaptationplanningandimplementation.Hence,theassessmentofcapacity‐buildingsupportneedsisanimportantpartofadaptationneedsassessment.

17. Methodologiesforassessingcapacity‐buildingsupportneedsgenerallyconsidercapacity‐buildingneedsatthreelevels(e.g.UNFCCC,2012;WorkingGrouponClimateChange,2004):

a) Individuallevel:assessingtheneedsagainsttherequiredtechnicalexpertiseandprofessionalskills

b) Institutionallevel:assessingtheneedsagainsttherequiredefficiencyofinstitutionalandmanagementstructure,human,financialandinformationalresources,aswellasessentialinfrastructure;and

c) Systemiclevel:assessingtheneedsagainsttherequiredenablingenvironmentincludingthelegalframework.

18. DevelopingcountryParties,throughtheirNAPs,INDCsandNationalCommunications,haveidentifiedtechnicalaswellasinstitutionalcapacity‐buildingsupportneedsforadaptationatallthesethreelevels.Effortssofar,however,havebeenfocusingonidentifyingtechnicalcapacity‐buildingsupportneeds(e.g.thoseassociatedwithanalyticalactivitieswithintheadaptationplanningprocesssuchasclimatemodelling,scenariodevelopment,downscaling,riskassessment,costbenefitanalysis).9InformulatingitsNationalAdaptationPlan,BurkinaFasodevelopedaninventoryofrelevantcapacitiescurrentlyavailableandthoseyetneededinkeysectors/themes.Alistofactions/solutionstoaddressidentifiedcapacitygapswassubsequentlydrawnup(seeAnnex,section4fordetails).

19. Inaddition,Partieshavehighlightedtheroleofsouth‐southcooperationinstrengtheningcapacitythroughsharingofexperiencesandmutuallearning(e.g.UNFCCC,2015).Inadditiontoidentifyingcapacity‐buildingsupportneedsthroughnationalreportinginstruments,thecapacity‐buildingframeworksunder9Inadditiontotechnicalexpertise,theprovisionofandaccesstodata,informationandknowledgeareconsideredtobepartoftechnicalcapacity.


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theConvention10provideopportunitiesforPartiesandotherstakeholderstoreviewprogressmadeinimplementingcapacitybuildingactivitiesandhighlightgapsincapacitybuildingsupportincludingcapacitygapsinaccessingadaptationfunds.11Capacity‐buildingneedsidentifiedthroughtheexistingnationalreportingprocessesareeithertask‐(e.g.engagingstakeholders,downscalingofclimatemodels)ortargetgroup‐(e.g.governmentaldepartment,technicalpersonnel)‐focused,insteadofoutputoroutcome‐oriented.Thiswouldmaketrackingprogresstowardsaddressingidentifiedcapacity‐buildingneedschallenging.

Table1.Asummaryofkeyfeaturesofmethodologiesreviewed

Existingmethodology IllustrativeApplications

KeyIssues/Limitations

Needsforadaptationaction

Frameworksfornationaladaptationplanningandprogramming;

Approachesforimpacts,vulnerabilityandadaptationassessments:

•“Impact‐based”approach;

•“Vulnerability‐based”approach;

•“Adaptation‐based”approach;

•“Risk‐based“approach.

FormulationofNAPs,nationalclimatechange/adaptationprogrammes;

Assessmentscarriedoutwithinthecontextofnationalcommunications

Highlydiverseinscope,selectionofscenarios,timeframeandmetricsofimpacts

Noreferencetoacommonglobalwarminggoal(e.g.2oC);

Lackinacommonbaselineandtimehorizon(e.g.2030);

Inconsistencyintheconsiderationofotherrelevantnational(e.g.developmentplanning)andinternational(e.g.SDGs,DRR)processes;

Linkstomeasurablemetrics/indicators

Needsforfinancialsupport

Programme‐based,project‐oractivity‐basedestimates;

Investmentandfinancialflowanalysis

CostingofpriorityprojectsinNAPAsandinSPCRbyPPCRpilotcountries;

Globalassessment(e.g.OECD,2008;UNFCCC,2007)

Nationalassessments(e.g.WorldBank,2010;UNFCCC,2010;UNDP,2011)

OverallcostsinINDCsandBURs

Largelylimitedtoeconomicassessmentsofadaptationcostswithinsufficientfinancialassessments;

Majorassumptions(e.g.uncertainties,discountingrates,baseline,timescale,spatialscaleandboundariesetc)

Lackofconsiderationofopportunity/transactioncosts;

Lackoftransparencyintheuseanddocumentationoftheunderlyingcosting

10Forexample,undertheDurbanForumoncapacity‐buildingadoptedatCOP17,annualin‐sessionmeetingsareheldforPartiesandotherstakeholdersengagedincapacity‐buildingtoreviewprogress,sharegoodpracticesandhighlightgapsincapacity‐buildingformitigationandadaptation. 11Forexample,asetofcriticalcapacitygapsrelatedtotheaccesstoandmanagementofAdaptationFundwereidentifiedbytheAdaptationFundsecretariatattheDurbanForummeetinginMay2016<http://unfccc.int/files/cooperation_and_support/capacity_building/application/pdf/df5_ms_silvia_mancini.pdf>.


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Existingmethodology IllustrativeApplications

KeyIssues/Limitations

methodology; Lackofcoherentandcomprehensivemethodologytoidentifyprivatesectorfinancialsupportonadaptation

Needsfortechnologicalsupport

Methodologicalframeworkfortechnologyneedsassessment(TNA)asincludedintheTNAhandbook,withaccompanyingtoolssuchasTNAssessandClimateTechWiki

TNAsandtechnologyactionplanspreparedbynon‐AnnexIParties

Moreattentionrequiredtoensureadaptationtechnologysupportneedsassessmentisanintegralpartofadaptationneedsassessment

Needsforcapacitybuildingsupport

Identifyingcapacitybuildingneedsatindividual,institutionalandsystemiclevels

Assessmentscarriedoutinnationalcommunications,NAPs,INDCs

Task‐ortargetgroup‐focusednatureofassessmentresultsleadingtodifficultyoftrackingprogressatnationallevel

2.6. Keyissuesforconsideration

20. Theinitialdeskreviewsuggeststhattherearemethodologicalframeworks,developedbothunderandoutsidetheConvention,thathavebeenandwouldcontinuetosupporttheassessmentofadaptationneeds.However,asdiscussedinSection2above,differentmethodologiesweredevelopedwithinaspecificcontextandtoserveparticularpurposes,hencehavetheirownstrengths.Andatthesametime,asshownintable1above,thereareanumberoflimitationsifthesemethodologiesweretobeappliedtosupportnationalleveladaptationneedsassessmentsthatwouldsupporttheimplementationofthevariousadaptationprovisionsunderthePA.Therefore,theACmayfocustheirconsiderationandrecommendationsonidentifyingthestrengthsandlimitationsof,andgapsinexistingmethodologies,andonpossibleapproachestoaddressthelimitationsofandgapsinexistingmethodologiesforassessingadaptationneeds.

21. InlightofthecurrentstateofmethodologicaldevelopmentandapplicationwithrelationtoadaptationneedsassessmentandthepotentialsynergisticrolethatanationaladaptationneedsassessmentcouldplayinfulfillingtherangeofnationaladaptationplanningandreportingobligationsunderthePA,theACmaywishtoconsideridentifyinganumberofhigh‐levelprinciplesfortheidentification/selection/refinementofrelevantmethodologies.Examplesofsuchprinciplesfortheidentification/selection/refinementandapplicationofmethodologiescouldinclude:

a) Practical(inordertoavoidplacingundueburdentodevelopingcountryPartiesrelatedtointensedataacquisitionandhighdemandfortechnicalexpertise);

b) Flexible(inordertoaccommodatethewidediversityoflevelsindataandcapacityavailability);

c) Comprehensive(tocoverallkeyeconomicsectorsandnaturalsystemswithinacountry);

d) Integrated(tobeabletoaccountfortheinteractionsbetweensocio‐economicandenvironmental/climaticparametersandprocesses);

e) Conducivetotransparentreporting(e.g.onkeyassumptionsandtreatmentofuncertainties);

f) …


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Possiblenextsteps3.22. Takingintoaccountinformationcontainedinthisbackgroundnote,theACmaywishtodiscussandagreeonaworkplantowardsthedevelopmentofrecommendationsasmandatedbytheCOP.Inparticular,theACmayconsider:

a) Scopeofthemandate:shoulditbelimitedtoadaptationactionorincludeadaptationactionandsupportforadaptationaswell?

b) Scopeoftherecommendations:shouldtheybelimitedtohigh‐levelprinciplesasdiscussedinparagraph 21aboveorshouldtheACaimtorecommendgoodpracticesinselectingandapplyingexistingmethodologies,andconcreteactions(e.g.forCGE,LEG,SCForTEC)inordertoaddressthelimitationsidentifiedthroughconsideringexistingmethodologiesandtheirapplication?

c) Anyadditionalinputsand/oranalysiswhichwouldbehelpfulindevelopingtherecommendations,particularlyviewsfromPartiesontheutilitiesandlimitationsofexistingguidelinesforNAPs,V&AassessmentswithintheNCs,TNAsetc.),through,forexample,solicitinginputsfromparticipantsatrelevanteventsand/orfurtheranalysingspecificmethodologies(e.g.ontheirstrengthsandlimitationsintermsofdata,timeandtechnicalexpertiserequirement,applicablescalesetc.);

d) Aworkplanforthedevelopmentofrecommendationsincludingthepossibletimelineasoutlineintable2below.

Table2.Possibletimelinetowardsthedevelopmentofrecommendations

What How Who WhenArevisedbackgroundnote

RevisethedraftbackgroundnotebasedonfeedbackfromanddecisionsbytheACatAC10,withagreedscopeofworkandnextsteps

SecretariatundertheguidanceoftheAC

By15October2016

Additionalinputstobeprovidedbyexperts

OrganizeascopingmeetingofrelevantexpertsincludingthosefromdevelopingcountryParties

ByendofJanuary2017

AdraftscopingpaperonrecommendationsfordiscussionatAC11

Takingintoaccountpossibleadditionalinputstobesolicitedandfurtheranalysistobecarriedout,prepareadraftscopingpaperoutliningthestrengthsandlimitationsofexistingmethodologiesinlightoftherelevantadaptationprovisionsundertheConventionandthePA,andproposeareaswithinwhichtheACmaywishtomakerecommendations


ByAC11

Arevisedscopingpaper

RevisethedraftpaperbasedonfeedbackfromanddecisionsmadebytheACatAC11


TwoweeksafterAC11

Draftrecommendations

Basedonthescopingpaper,prepareasetofdraftrecommendationsthattheACwouldpresenttoCMAonmethodologiesforassessingadaptationneedswithaviewtoassistingdevelopingcountryParties,withoutplacinganundueburdenonthem


ByAC12

Finalisedrecommendations

RevisethedraftrecommendationsbasedonfeedbackfromanddecisionsbytheACatAC12


ByCMA1


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References4.

Adger,W.N.2006.Vulnerability.GlobalEnvironmentalChange,16,268‐281.

Carter,T.R.,M.L.Parry,H.Harawasa,andS.Nishioka.1994.IPCCTechnicalGuidelinesforAssessingClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptations.CGER‐I015‐’94,ClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptations,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)/UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP),PublishedbytheDepartmentofGeography,UniversityCollegeLondon,London,UKandtheCenterforGlobalEnvironmentalResearch,NationalInstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,Tsukuba,Japan,59pp.

Parry,M.andT.Carter.1998.ClimateImpactandAdaptationAssessment:AGuidetotheIPCCApproach.Earthscan,London,UK,166pp.Smit,B.andJ.Wandel.2006.Adaptation,adaptivecapacityandvulnerability.GlobalEnvironmentalChange,16(3),282‐292.IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange).2014,ClimateChange2014:Impacts,Adaptation,andVulnerability,ContributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,CambridgeUniversityPress,CambridgeandNewYorkUKCIP.2011.MakingProgress:UKCIP&AdaptationintheUK.UKClimateImpactsProgramme(UKCIP),SchoolofGeographyandtheEnvironment,attheUniversityofOxford,Oxford,UK,99pp.UNDP.2010.Handbookforconductingtechnologyneedsassessmentforclimatechange.UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP),NewYork,USA.UNEP.2016.TheAdaptationFinanceGapReport2016.UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP),Nairobi,Kenya.Adigitalcopyofthisreportalongwithasupportingappendix(onlineonly)isavailableat<http://www.unep.org/climatechange/adaptation/gapreport2016/>.UnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgramme(UNEP).2014.AdaptationGapReport:apreliminaryassessment.Pp.88.Availableat<http://web.unep.org/adaptationgapreport/sites/unep.org.adaptationgapreport/files/documents/agr_full_report.pdf>.UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP).2014.AfricaAdaptationGapTechnicalReport:Climate‐changeimpacts,adaptationchallengesandcostsforAfrica.Pp.44.Availableat<http://www.unep.org/pdf/AfricaAdapatationGapreport.pdf>.UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC).2012.Technicalguidelinesfornationaladaptationplanprocess.Availableonlineat:<http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/07.pdf>.


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UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC).2015.Synthesisreportontheaggregateeffectoftheintendednationallydeterminedcontributions.Availableonlineat:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/07.pdf>UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC).2015.ThirdsynthesisreportontechnologyneedsidentifiedbyPartiesnotincludedinAnnexItotheConvention.Availableonlineat<http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2013/sbsta/eng/inf07.pdf>.GovernmentofBurkinaFaso.2015.BurkinaFasoNationalClimateChangeAdaptationPlan(NAP).Availableat<http://www4.unfccc.int/nap/Documents/Parties/PNA_Version_version%20finale%5BTransmission%5D.pdf>.RoyalGovernmentofBhutan.2013.TechnologyNeedsAssessmentandTechnologyActionPlansforClimateChangeAdaptation.Availableat<http://unfccc.int/ttclear/misc_/StaticFiles/gnwoerk_static/TNR_CRE/e9067c6e3b97459989b2196f12155ad5/80f54165656545208036620f04b9cf2b.pdf>.WorkingGrouponClimateChange(GEF/UNDPProjectNeedsAssessmentforCapacityBuildingattheNationalLevel).2004.OverallReport,Chisinau,Maldova.Availableat<https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwip‐b6rwfPOAhULwBQKHYdKAe0QFggoMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.undp.md%2Fpublications%2FNCSAreports%2Frap04_en.pdf>.


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Annex:Indicativeexamplesofassessingadaptationneeds

Assessingtheneedsforadaptationaction1.1. Inrecognitionoftheimportanceofadaptationinthecountry’sclimatechangeagenda,Mexicoincludedanadaptationcomponentaspartofthecountry’sINDC.12ThelistofadaptationactionscommunicatedwithintheINDCwasbasedontheSpecialProgramonClimateChange(PECC)2014‐2018.ThePECC,akeypolicyplanninginstrument,wasderivedfromMexico’sGeneralLawonClimateChangeandisalignedwiththeNationalDevelopmentPlan(PND),theCross‐SectoralProgramsofthefederalgovernmentandSectoralProgramsoffederalministries.Theassessmentofadaptationactionneedsconsideredawidevarietyofinformationandanalyticalsources,includinginformationoncurrenttrendsinclimateconditions,hazardsandassociatedvulnerabilities,onprojectedchangesinkeyclimaticparameters,andonimplicationsofprojectedchangesforkeyeconomicsectorsandvitalinfrastructureinthecountry.13

2. Takingintoaccountgenderequityandhumanrights,Mexicoidentified,andcommunicatedthroughitsINDC,alistofadaptationactionsfortheperiodof2020‐2030,underthreebroadclusters:

a) Adaptationforthesocialsector(vulnerablecommunities):actionsrangingfromguaranteeingaccesstofoodandwaterthroughintegralwatershedmanagement,biodiversityandlandconservation,torelocatingpopulationlivingindisasterproneareasthroughlanduseregulations;

b) Ecosystem‐basedadaptation:actionsincludingconservingandrestoringecosystemsthroughthepromotionofbiologicalcorridorsandsustainableproductionactivities;

c) Adaptationofstrategicinfrastructureandproductivesystems:actionsrangingfrom“climateproofing”publicinvestmentininfrastructure,toguaranteeingintegralmanagementofwaterresourcesfordifferentusers.

3. Inadditiontoadaptationactionstobeundertaken,theneedsidentifiedarealsoassociatedwithspecifictimeframe(theperiodof2020‐2030)andtargetsforsomeactions.Suchtargetsinclude:“Reduceatleastby50percentthenumberofmunicipalitiesinthecategoryof“mostvulnerable”inthePECC2014‐2018andavoidanyotherMunicipalityfallingintothiscategory”;“Reacharateof0percentdeforestationbytheyear2030”;and“Guaranteeurbanandindustrialwastewatertreatment,ensuringquantityandgoodqualityofwaterinhumansettlementslargerthan500,000inhabitantsandtomonitortheirperformance”.

Assessingtheneedsoffinancialsupportforadaptation2.4. WithinthecontextofthePilotProgrammeforClimateResilience(PPCR),afundingwindowundertheClimateInvestmentFund,14pilotcountriesreceiveassistanceindevelopingandimplementingprogrammestointegrateclimateresilienceintodevelopmentplanningacrosssectorsandstakeholderthrough,amongothers,pilotinginnovativepublicandprivatesectorsolutionstopressingclimate‐relatedrisks.ToaccessthePPCRsupport,eachpilotcountrypresentsanationalclimateresilienceinvestmentplanoutliningthepriorityprojectsandactivitiestoenhanceclimateresiliencewithinthecountryandassociatedfinancialrequirements.

5. Inmostcases,thefinancialneedsfordevelopingandimplementingtheresilienceprogrammeareestimatedatproject/activitylevel,takingintoaccountthecurrentlevelofcostsforcomparableprojects/activities.Table3belowprovidesanindicativeexampleofhowfinancialrequestsweremadeforprojects/activitiesunderthePPCR.

12<http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Mexico/1/MEXICO%20INDC%2003.30.2015.pdf>. 13<https://www.iea.org/media/workshops/2015/15thghgtradingworkshop/ShorteditionofPECC_Englishversion.pdf>. 14FurtherdetailsonthePPCRareavailableat<http://www‐cif.climateinvestmentfunds.org/fund/pilot‐program‐climate‐resilience>.


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Table3.AnIndicativeExampleofFinancialRequestsunderthePPCR(a)

Project/ProgrammeConceptTitle

MDB RequestedPPCRAmount(MillionUSD)

ExpectedCo‐financing(MillionUSD)

Preparationgrantrequest(MillionUSD)

TotalPPCRrequest(MillionUSD)

Total Grant Loan

InvestmentComponentI:PromotingClimate‐ResilienceofWaterResourcesandRelatedInfrastructure(USD33Million)Project1:ClimateRiskManagementandRehabilitationofSmall‐andMedium‐scaleIrrigationSchemesintheTonleSapBasin

ADB 19.00 7.00 12.00 63.00 0.60 19.00

Project2:EnhancementofFloodandDroughtManagementinPursatandKratieProvinces

ADB 14.00 6.00 8.00 35.00 0.60 14.00

(a) Source:AdaptedfromTable2in“ClimateInvestmentFund,2011,StrategicProgrammeforClimateResilience,Cambodia”.Availableat<https://www‐cif.climateinvestmentfunds.org/sites/default/files/meeting‐documents/ppcr_4_spcr_cambodia_0.pdf>.

Assessingtheneedsoftechnologysupportforadaptation3.6. Inconductingitsnationaltechnologyneedsassessment(TNA)forclimatechangeadaptation,BhutanformulatedanationalTNAtaskforce,consistingof35membersfromgovernmentalagencies,civilsocietyandprivatesector,toensureengagementandinputsfromallrelevantstakeholdergroups.Intheprioritizationofsectorsandalternativetechnologies,theTNAprocessgavedueconsiderationofnationaldevelopmentobjectivesandpriorities,andwasguidedbyprinciplesoftransparencyandinclusiveness.AsillustratedinfigureA1below,theTaskForce,throughaniterativeonlinescoringprocess,firstidentifiedthreeprioritysectorsfortheTNA:waterresources,agriculture,andnaturaldisastersandinfrastructure.Potentialtechnologicaloptionsforeachofthethreesectorswerethenidentifiedandprioritizedusingasetofweightedcriteria:

a) Benefits–contributionstothecountry’ssocio‐economicdevelopmentandnaturalenvironment;

b) Relevance–climatevulnerabilityreductionpotential;

c) Appropriateness–technologymaturityandpotentialscaleofdeployment;and

d) Cost.


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Figure3.TheTNAProcess(RoyalGovernmentofBhutan,2013)

7. Threetechnologiesforeachofthethreesectorswereidentified,basedonthecriteriaaboveaswellasfurtherdiscussionswithsectoralexpertsandstakeholders(seetable4).Oncethesectoraltechnologieswereidentified,theTaskForcedecidedtofurtherfocusonone,insteadofthree,technologicalsolutionforeachsectorsothatmore–depthanalysesandtechnologyactionplanscouldbedeveloped.Consequently,asetofthreeprioritytechnologieswereselectedforsuchfocusedeffort(seetable4).

Table4.TechnologiesIdentifiedthroughtheTNAProcessinBhutan(a)(b)

Sector PrioritizedTechnologyWaterresources Efficientirrigationmethods

Micro/Minihydropower Solarpower(Photovoltaic)

Agriculture Agro‐forestry Developmentofdroughtresistantand

pestresistantvarietiesofcrops SlopingAgricultureLandTechnology

(SALT)Naturaldisasterandinfrastructure Real‐timeweatherstationsandweather

forecasting(multi‐range) Climateresilientroads Communitybasedearlywarning

systems

(a) Source:RoyalGovernmentofBhutan,2013.(b) Italicizedentriesdenotetechnologiesbeingselectedformorein‐depthanalysesandtechnologyactionplanning.


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Assessingtheneedsofcapacitybuildingforadaptation4.8. InformulatingitsNAP,followingafour‐elementframeworkasincludedintheLEG’sinitialguidelinesfortheformulationofnationaladaptationplans,15BurkinaFasocarriedoutanassessmentofcapacityneeds.Aninventoryofcapacitiesavailableandcapacitygapsispreparedbasedoninputsfrom12governmentministries(seetable5below).Entriesintheinventoryincludedtypicaltechnicalitemssuchascapacitytointegrateadaptationintodisasterriskmanagementplansaswellasthoseofaninstitutionalnaturesuchasthestrengtheningofengagementbykeystakeholdergroups.Basedonthiscapacitiesinventory,alistofactions(solutions)wasidentifiedtoaddressthecapacitygaps(seetable6below).

Table5.Anexcerptofthecapacitiesinventory(a)

Capacitiesavailable CapacitiesneededCompetentenvironmentalandsustainabledevelopmentmanagementstructureformallyavailableatnationallevel(SP/CONEDD)

Databaseonimpactsofclimatechangeforeachregionof

NationalstructureinchargeofdisasterandhumanitariancrisispreventionavailableintheformoftheNationalEmergencyAidandRehabilitationCouncil(CONASUR)withitsownpermanentsecretariat

BurkinaCapacity‐buildingforbetterintegrationoftheclimatechangeadaptationdimensionindisasterprevention,preparationandresponseplans

DatabaseonimpactsofclimatechangeavailablefromthreeNAPAprojects

Climatemodelsonreduced(regional)scale

Long‐termclimateprojectionspreparedbytheLAMEavailable(upto2100)

Designationbythegovernmentofacompetentministry(forexampletheMEDD)todrivesectoralpolicyreviewwithaviewtotakingaccountofclimatechangeadaptation

(a) Source:derivedfromTable3inGovernmentofBurkinaFaso,2015

Table6.Anexcerptofthecapacitiesneedsandpossiblesolutions(a)

Capacityneeded PossiblesolutionDatabaseonimpactsofclimatechangeforeachregionofBurkina

Createafreely‐accessibledatabaseontheimpactsofclimatechangeforeachregionImproveexistingdatabases

Climatemodelsonreduced(regional)scale FormulateregionalclimatemodelsDesignationbythegovernmentofacompetentministry(forexampletheMEDD)todrivesectoralpolicyreviewwithaviewtotakingaccountofclimatechangeadaptation

MinistryofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmenttofileareporttotheCouncilofMinisters

Involvementandmobilisationoftheprivatesector

Organiseinformationandawareness‐raisingworkshopsontheimpactsofclimatechangeontheeconomyfortheprivatesectorundertheaegisoftheChamberofCommerce,IndustryandHandicrafts(CCIA)andtheNationalCouncilofEmployersofBurkinaFaso(CNPB)

(a) Source:derivedfromTable4inGovernmentofBurkinaFaso,2015

15Annextodecision5/CP.17.