Adaptation to Climate Change: The Argentine experience

Vicente Barros UBA (AIACC LA 26), Hernan Carlino (Secretary of Environment and Sustainable Development) and Daniel Perczyk (Di Tella Institute)

Project : Regional and Environmental Agenda for Project : Regional and Environmental Agenda for Governability and Sustainable DevelopmentGovernability and Sustainable Development

Precipitation change

Annual precipitation trend1960-2000 mm / year

- 70 - 65 - 60 - 55 - 50 - 45 - 40

Tendencia AN U AL - O C -SE (Sum a Pesados)

- 40

- 35

- 30

- 25

- 20

This is an important change in climate conditions that already occurred

It could provide some experience

To see

• Adaptation or not

• Where and in which sectors?

• How successful was ?

- 7 5 - 7 0 - 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5

- 5 5

- 5 0

- 4 5

- 4 0

- 3 5

- 3 0

- 2 5

- 2 0

                                                     

 

FIRST FIRST CASECASE

Isohyets in Isohyets in mmmm

black : black : 1950-19691950-1969

red:red: 1980-19991980-1999

Adaptation to new conditions

AGRICULTURE INFRASTRUCTURE

Successful Still to come

• Wetter conditions in the central part of Argentina, together with a rapid adoption of new technologies allowed the expansion to the west of the agriculture frontier

• This adaptation was autonomous, done by the private sector, and stated even before the advice of the agriculture experts

• The features of this adaptation, autonomy and speed, were favored by the short cycle of the agriculture activity, mainly cereals and other grains

Autonomous adaptation

- Resulted from massive individual options

- It came after the change

It could lead to wrong decisions (In the long term) if the change ends being transitory

In this case: deforestation of the Monte

Activities with long-term implications

• Require planning

Example: Infrastructure

It should be designed for the future

In this case:

The adaptation was delayed:

problems in roads, bridges, etc.

Best example is the Picasa Lagoon:

railroad and a main road was cut for many years

Lack of awareness in the technical spheres, and even in the scientific community

May-32

Nov-35

Abr-46

Abr-51

Mar-59

Abr-61

Abr-65

Mar-66

Mar-77

Jul-83

Feb-90

Jun-92

Mar-95

Mar-97

Ene-98

May-98

Abr-31

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ene-31 Ene-36 Ene-41 Ene-46 Ene-51 Ene-56 Ene-61 Ene-66 Ene-71 Ene-76 Ene-81 Ene-86 Ene-91 Ene-96 Ene-01

Fecha

Cau

dal (m3 /s

)

Ciclo Medio Ciclo Seco Ciclo Húmedo

A different reaction:A different reaction:The largest discharges in the ParanáThe largest discharges in the Paraná

(Jaime & Menéndez, INA)(Jaime & Menéndez, INA)

 

El Niño 1997-98 El Niño 1997-98 flood flood (UBA Project on (UBA Project on floods)floods)

A public adaptation policy was implemented after the great floods of the great tributaries of the Plata River during

1982/83 and 1992

Structural measures (defenses), and an Alert System was organized and improved since then. As a result of this adaptation policy, damages of the 1997/1998 flood were considerable lower ( 700 M U$D) than in 1982/83 event (1300 U$D)

What was different in this case?

• There were :

Public

Technical

International

and Political

AWARENESS about

El Niño

Other case with

No important or adequate responses

Number of events with precipitation greater than 100 mm in no more than two days (16 stations of the Center and East of Argentina)

Precipitation over 150 mm: rate between the annual frequency of the 1983/2002 and the 1959/1978 periods

• There were not enough AWARENESS

• In the Public

• Not even between hydrologists and climatologists

About the unnamed cause of this problem

Main Conclusion:Awareness of climate changes seem have been determinant for public

and private responses

It may be other conditionings:

social, economic, structural or even cultural barriers

Floods risk maps 2070

How results of AIACCProjectswill result in adaptation to Future Changes?

Adaptation to Global change is an important issue in the construction of

the

Official Argentine environmental AgendaOfficial Argentine environmental Agenda

In which awareness should be a key In which awareness should be a key elementelement

Due to Climate changeSome Public Policies has to evolve from theestimation of risk to the management of uncertainties. This implies an economic cost as planning has to assumeMore costs Or more risks

• Investment to reduce uncertainty is likely more profitable than investment in

infrastructure alone

• This means investment in climate change research is highly profitable

• Particularly, it is necessary to reduce future uncertainty: better climate scenarios