8/8/2019 Adaptations to Climate Change of Poor Thai Farmers - paper

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Oloy|o|djaw |j Gbdfo|` Geoac` jhYjj} \eod Ho}f`}w

Wjfgeod Kd|wpgeja

\eodboal L`x`bjyf`a| ]`w`o}ge Daw|d|p|`

Hj}

Owdoa L`x`bjyf`a| Moan

Ajx`fm`} =

8/8/2019 Adaptations to Climate Change of Poor Thai Farmers - paper

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Omw|}og|

Ow gjpa|}t wd|po|dac da Wjp|e`ow| Owdo }`cdja" \eodboal weo}`w |e` }`cdjaw edce

xpba`}omdbd|t |j gbdfo|` geoac`! @xdl`ag`w wejs |`fy`}o|p}` }dwdac" l`gbdadac }odahobb da

c`a`}ob }`wpb|dac da fj}` h}`qp`a| oal y}jbjac`l l}jpce|w! O}`ow wp}}jpaldac Moacnjn oal|e` Wjp|e o}` yo}|dgpbo}bt o| }dwnw |j eo{o}lw" mp| |e` Aj}|e oal Aj}|e`ow| }`cdjaw o}` fj}`

xpba`}omb` ow |e`t ejw| fjw| jh |e` gjpa|}tw yjj} yjypbo|dja" `wy`gdobbt |ejw` da oc}dgpb|p}ob

w`g|j}! Oloy|o|dja jh yjj} ho}f`}w dw |e`}`hj}` oa dfyj}|oa| dwwp` |eo| a``lw y}jy`}

o||`a|dja! \edw }`yj}| }`xd`sw wjf` jh |e` w|pld`w da |edw o}`o da \eodboal" oal ldwgpww`w

wjf` }`g`a| l`x`bjyf`a|w |eo| o}` }`bo|`l |j oloy|o|dja |j gbdfo|` geoac` da \eod oc}dgpb|p}`!

D| dw hjpal |eo| \eod ho}f`}w eox` bdfd|`l oloy|o|dja goyomdbd|t" da |e` w`aw` |eo| |e`t goa

oloy| |j fdb`" mp| aj| `u|}`f`" gbdfo|` geoac`! Sd|ejp| fokj} olkpw|f`a| oal*j} `u|`}aob

e`byw" |e` bdx`bdejjlw jh yjj} ho}f`}w o}` o| }dwn! J}coadg oc}dgpb|p}` y}jxdl`w o m`||`} gejdg`

|eoa gjax`a|djaob ho}fdac y}og|dg` da mj|e fd|dco|dja oal oloy|o|dja! J|e`} f`geoadwfw

wejpbl obwj m` `agjp}oc`l" dagbpldac gjffpad|t&mow`l oloy|o|dja" s`o|e`} dawp}oag`"mdj`a`}ct" oal fo}n`|&mow`l yotf`a| dag`a|dx`w hj} `axd}jaf`a|ob w`}xdg`w!

8/8/2019 Adaptations to Climate Change of Poor Thai Farmers - paper

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\omb` jh Gja|`a|

Da|}jlpg|dja !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?

Dfyog|w jh gbdfo|` geoac` ja oc}dgpb|p}` !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!=

Gbdfo|` Geoac` da \eodboal oal Dfyog|w ja Oc}dgpb|p}` !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!7Oloy|dja |j Gbdfo|` Geoac` mt \eod Ho}f`}w !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!8

]`g`a| L`x`bjyf`a|w da Gbdfo|`&W`awd|dx` Oc}dgpb|p}ob Y}og|dg`w !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!4

J}coadg Oc}dgpb|p}` !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 4

Gjffpad|t&mow`l Oloy|o|dja !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 4

Dawp}oag` ocodaw| Gbdfo|` Geoac`!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ?9

Y}j|`g|dac |e` Yjj}`w|!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ?9

Mdj`a`}ct !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ?9

Yotf`a| hj} @axd}jaf`a|ob W`}xdg` !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ?9

]jb`w jh Y}dxo|` W`g|j} !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ??

]`h`}`ag`w !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ?=

Bdw| jh \omb`w oal Hdcp}`w

\omb` ? ]dw`w jh \`fy`}o|p}` da \eodboal !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7

Hdcp}` ? Gbdfo|` Eo{o}l Dal`u da Wjp|e`ow| Owdo !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! w`awd|dxd|t ow |e` l`c}`` |j sedge o wtw|`f dw ohh`g|`l" `d|e`} olx`}w`bt j} m`a`hdgdobbt" mt

gbdfo|`&}`bo| l w|dfpbd?> oal oloy|dx` goyogd|t ow |e` omdbd|t jh o wtw|`f |j olkpw| |j gbdfo|` geoac`%dagbpldac gbdfo|` xo}domdbd|t oal `u|}`f`w$" |j fjl`}o|` |e` yj|`a|dob lofoc` h}jf d|" |j |on` olxoa|oc` jh

d|w jyyj}|pad|d`w" j} |j gjy` sd|e d|w gjaw`qp`ag`w!

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Hdcp}` = Gbdfo|` Geoac` Xpba`}omdbd|t Dal`u da Wjp|e`ow| Owdo

Wjp}g`; Tpwph oal E`}fdado =994$

\e`}` o}` `xdl`ag`w jh wjf` ob|`}`l s`o|e`} gjald|djaw }`wpb|dac h}jf gbdfo|` geoac`

da \eodboal |eo| ohh g| oc}dgpb|p}`! W`owjaw o}` aj| ow }`cpbo} ow da |e` yow|! Wpff`}w o}`

bjac`}! Wjp|e`ow| fjawjja o}` fj}` w`x`}` sd|e e`oxd`} mp| d}}`cpbo} }odaw" |eo| dw" e`oxt

}odaw ob|`}ao|` sd|e bjac wy`bbw jh aj }oda! Hbjjlw o}` fj}` w`x`}` oal jh|`a da wjf` yo}|w"

wpge ow da |e` Wjp|e! \edw t`o}" =9?9" eow ob}`olt sd|a`ww`l ja` jh |e` fjw| w`x`}` hbjjlw da

w`x`}ob t`o}w! Wjf` `w|dfo|`w o}` |eo| |e` ofjpa| jh }oda sdbb dag}`ow` mt =9 y`}g`a| da |e`

a`u| wdu|t t`o}w gjfyo}`l |j |e` bow| ja` epal}`l t`o}w!

Dag}`ow`l s`o|e`} xo}domdbd|t ob|`}w mdjldx`}wd|t" sedge fdce| gopw` `u|dag| dja jh

wjf` oadfobw oal yboa|w! Hj} }dg` ho}f`}w" |e` pwpob ho}fdac yo||`}aw o}` aj bjac`}

oyybdgomb`! Ja` w|plt |eo| wp}x`t`l ho}f`}w da Towj|ej}a y}jxdag` jh \eodboal l`fjaw|}o|`w

|edw hog| |eo| ob|`}`l }odahobb yo||`}a ohh`g|`l g}jy gpb|dxo|dja gtgb` w`` \omb` =$! ]odaw |eo|

gof` |jj wjja o| |e` m`cdaadac jh |e` gtgb` fol` wjdb y}`yo}o|dja ldhhdgpb|" sedb` yboa|dac

sow l`bot`l |eoa m`hj}` lp` |j wfobb`} ofjpa| jh gjaw`qp`a| }odahobbw! O| eo}x`w|dac |df`"

|jj fpge }oda ajs gopw`l so|`} bjccdac oal fjdw|p}d{`l c}odaw!

8/8/2019 Adaptations to Climate Change of Poor Thai Farmers - paper

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\omb` = Geoac`w da ]odahobb Yo||`}aw oggj}ldac |j ]dg` Ho}f`}w da Towj|ej}a

Y}jxdag` da =995

Wjp}g`; Wpyoyj}a Oapged}oge``xo oal \pb Ydano`s =994$

Oloy|dja |j Gbdfo|` Geoac` mt \eod Ho}f`}w

Da |edw w`g|dja" D hjgpw ja ejs bjs&dagjf` oal yjj} ho}f`}w goa oloy| |j gbdfo|`geoac`w pwdac wjf` b`wwjaw h}jf \eodboal! D m`cda sd|e o }`xd`s jh o wfobb y}jk`g| mt

Juhof Da|`}ao|djaob da \eodboalw Towj|ej}a y}jxdag`" sedge dw yo}|dgpbo}bt da|`}`w|dac!

Towj|ej}a dw ja` jh yjj}`w| y}jxdag`w da \eodboal! D| dw bjgo|`l da |e` Aj}|e`ow| }`cdja jh

\eodboal" se`}` fjw| oc}dgpb|p}ob og|dxd|d`w o}` |d`l |j s`o|e`}! ]oda&h`l }dg` ho}fdac dw |e`

fjw| y}`xob`a| jggpyo|dja ofjac |e` y}jxdag`w ho}f`}w" ow fjw| jh |e` o}`ow o}` jp|wdl`

wtw|`fdg d}}dco|dja o}`o!

Towj|ej}a eow eol d|w weo}` jh ldhhdgpb| `uy`}d`ag` sd|e gbdfo|` geoac`! S`o|e`}

geoac`w o}` ob}`olt wejsa da \omb` = omjx`! Da |e` yow| h`s t`o}w" }odahobb m`gof` fj}`

pay}`ldg|omb` oal jh|`a |e`}` s`}` |df`w lp}dac eo}x`w|dac w`owjaw |eo| }odaw ldl aj| hobb ow

fpge ow |e`t pw`l |j! \e`}` sow obwj oa dag}`owdac }dwn |eo| l`y}`wwdjaw h}jf Wjp|e Gedao

W`o |j \eodboal m`gof` b`ww jh|`a" h}jf oa ox`}oc` jh jag` `x`}t t`o} |j omjp| jag` `x`}t

|e}`` t`o}w! \e`w` l`y}`wwdjaw o}` dfyj}|oa|" oal |e`t y}jxdl` }odahobbw da \eodboal"

`wy`gdobbt da |e` Aj}|e`ow| }`cdja!

Da =993&=995 " Towj|ej}a `uy`}d`ag`l ja` jh |e` bjac`w| l}jpce| w`owja da l`gol`w!

\e` l}jpce| wy`bb bow|`l h}jf Kpa` |j bo|` Opcpw|! Oggj}ldac |j |e` \eod F`|`j}jbjcdgob

8/8/2019 Adaptations to Climate Change of Poor Thai Farmers - paper

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L`yo}|f`a|" |e` =993 l}jpce| dw wjf`|edac |j m` `uy`g|`l cdx`a |e` hog| jh }dwdac

|`fy`}o|p}` oal geoac` da }odahobb yo||`}a! \e` l`bot jh }odahobb dw |e`}`hj}` bdn`bt |j }`y`o|

d|w`bh fj}` jh|`a da |e` hp|p}`! \edw sdbb ohh`g| |e` }dg` ho}f`}w" sedge }`y}`w`a| o}jpal 49

y`}g`a| jh |e` y}jxdag`w |j|ob yjypbo|dja! Ow fjw| jh |e` ho}f`}w c}js kowfda` }dg` sedge dw

bdce| w`awd|dx` oal |epw }`qpd}` o hdu |df`|omb` jh gpb|dxo|dja" yboa|o|dja" oal eo}x`w|dac" |e`

gbdfo|` geoac` eow |on`a o edce |jbb ja |e` y}jxdag`w ho}f`}w bdx`w!

Ow yo}| jh oa `hhj}| |j e`by Towj|ej}a ho}f`}w oloy| |j oal fd|dco|` |e` dfyog|w jh

gbdfo|` geoac`" Juhof Da|`}ao|djaob oal wjf` yo}|a`} w`| o ydbj| y}jk`g| da =995&=994"

hjgpwdac ja ejs j}coadg oc}dgpb|p}` goa e`by woh`cpo}ldac |e` ho}f`}w! Hdh|t&w`x`a j}coadg&

ho}fdac ejpw`ejblw" sd|e o |j|ob jh =50 m`a`hdgdo}d`w 03 h`fob`$" kjda`l |e` y}jk`g|! \e`

y}jk`g| og|dxd|d`w gjawdw|`l jh gbdfo|` geoac` dahj}fo|dja y}jxdwdja" bjoaw hj} so|`}

foaoc`f`a| yjal" pal`}c}jpal so|`}" so|`} ldw|}dmp|dja wtw|`f oal ypfy$" y}jfj|dja jh

g}jy ldx`}wdhdgo|dja x`c`|omb`" h}pd| |}``w$! @uy`}d`ag` weo}dac ofjac ho}f`}w sow obwj

`agjp}oc`l! D| wejpbl m` aj|`l |eo| l`wyd|` wfobb`} apfm`}w ofjac yo}|dgdyoa|w" sjf`a

s`}` og|dx`bt daxjbx`l da |e` y}jk`g|! O yjw|&y}jk`g| `xobpo|dja }`x`ob`l |eo| |e` yo}|dgdyo|dacho}f`}w s`}` wo|dwhd`l sd|e |e` y}jk`g| jp|gjf`w" ow hjjl m`gof` fj}` w`gp}`l" }dg` td`bl

sow aj| ow bjs ow |e`t h`o}`l o| |e` m`cdaadac jh |e` t`o}" oal |eo| so|`} foaoc`f`a| e`by`l

fd|dco|dac |e` dfyog| jh l}jpce|! Da oa da|`}xd`s sd|e ja` jh |e` yo}|dgdyo|dac ho}f`}w" we`

f`a|dja`l |e` dfyj}|oag` jh g}jy ldx`}wdhdgo|dja ow o }dwn foaoc`f`a| |jjb!

Hdcp}` 7 O ho}f`} jy`}o|dac so|`} ypfy ow yo}| jh oloy|o|dja |j gbdfo|` geoac`

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Da wyd|` jh |edw Juhof dad|do|dx` oal d|w hoxj}omb` jp|gjf`w" d| wejpbl m` aj|`l |eo|

|e` oloy|dx` f`owp}`w da |edw y}jk`g| sow w|dbb bdfd|`l da wgjy`! @ug`y| hj} bjoa |j so|`}

foaoc`f`a|" sedge }`qpd}`w `u|`}aob wpmwdlt" fjw| jh |e` f`owp}`w oljy|`l mt |e` ho}f`}w

s`}` wjf`seo| |}old|djaob! Hj} `uofyb`" g}jy ldx`}wdhdgo|dja eow bjac m``a oljy|`l mt

ho}f`}w da foat o}`ow oal bjgo|djaw!

\e` n`t qp`w|djaw o}` |e`a ejs fpge ho}f`}w" `wy`gdobbt |e` yjj}`} ja`w" goa oloy|

|j gbdfo|` ja |e`d} jsa" oal seo| ndal oal sd|e seo| l`c}`` `u|`}aob e`byw goa e`by! O

ajx`b w|plt mt \jsaw`al `|!ob =994$ jhh`}w oa oaws`} |j |e` hd}w| qp`w|dja! \e` w|plt

gjfmda`w `gjajfdg fjl`b sd|e mdjyetwdgob fjl`b jh }dg` gpb|dxo|dja oal obbjsw hj}

w|jgeow|dg }`obd{o|dja jh o s`o|e`} c`a`}o|j}! \e`t gobdm}o|`l |e` da|`c}o|`l fjl`b da|j |sj

gbdfo|` geoac` wg`ao}djw fdbl oal w`x`}`$ ocodaw| |e` aj&gbdfo|` m`agefo}n! Ho}f`}w da |e`

fjl`b s`}` obbjs`l |j oljy|`l fd|dco|dja w|}o|`ct! \e` fjl`b pw`l o yoa`b lo|o jh hjp}

xdbboc`w da Wdwon`|" oaj|e`} yjj} Aj}|e`ow| \eod y}jxdag`! \e` n`t hdaldac sow |eo| ho}f`}w

eol bdfd|`l goyomdbd|t |j gjpa|`} |e` olx`}w` dfyog|w jh gbdfo|` geoac`" `wy`gdobbt se`a |e`

gbdfo|` geoac` sow `u|}`f`! \e` ho}f`}w s`}` fj}` omb` |j gjy` sd|e fdbl`} gbdfo|`geoac`" oal wjf`|df`w `x`a m`a`hd| h}jf d|" mt olkpw|dac |e`d} dayp| y}jg`ww da|j }dg`

gpb|dxo|dja! \edw gjydac yj|`a|dob sow" ejs`x`}" fj}` bdfd|`l hj} yjj} ho}f`}w!

D| wejpbl m` aj|`l |eo| \jsaw`al `|!ob fjl`b ldl aj| |on` da|j j|e`} m}jol`}

oloy|o|dja f`owp}`w wpge ow geoac` da g}jy |ty` j} fdc}o|dja! Ja` w|}dndac `b`f`a| jh |e`

Juhof y}jk`g| f`a|dja`l `o}bd`} dw |eo| obb yo}|dgdyo|dac ho}f`}w c}`s j}coadg }dg`! D sdbb

ldwgpww ejs j}coadg oc}dgpb|p}` goa y}jxdl` o m`||`} oal fj}` wpw|odaomb` wjbp|dja |j gbdfo|`

geoac` bo|`}! Ja fdc}o|dja" |e` }`g`a| Sj}bl Moanw Sj}bl L`x`bjyf`a| ]`yj}|

ognajsb`lc`w |edw ow ja` sot |j oxjdl gbdfo|` geoac` dfyog|w! \e`}` o}` yb`a|t j|e`}

oloy|o|dja oal fd|dco|dja y}og|dg`w obb jx`} |e` sj}bl!

S` goa wpffo}d{` |e` oloy|dx` yj|`a|dob jh ho}f`}w" yjj} oal aja&yjj}" |j gbdfo|`

geoac`w ow hjbbjsw! Hd}w|" ho}f`}w wejpbl pw` wgd a|dhdg lo|o ja dfyog|w jh gbdfo|` geoac` ow

fpge ow |e`t goa" oal gjfmda` |edw sd|e |e`d} jsa dae`}d|`l najsb`lc` l`}dx`l h}jf bjac

edw|j}t jh gjfmo|dac sd|e gbdfo|` pag`}|oda|t! W`gjal" o y}jg`ww jh gja|dapjpw oloy|o|dja dw

a``l`l! \ed}l" dahj}fo|dja oal `uy`}d`ag` weo}dac ofjac ho}f`}w goa e`by wg}``adac oal

wy``ldac py jh oyy}jy}do|` olkpw|f`a| f`owp}`w! Hjp}|e" da |e` gow`w jh fj}` `u|}`f`

gbdfo|` geoac`" m}jol`} fd|dco|dja f`owp}`w wejpbl m` gjawdl`}`l!

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]`g`a| L`x`bjyf`a|w da Gbdfo|`&W`awd|dx` Oc}dgpb|p}ob Y}og|dg`w

Fpge dw a``l`l |j m` lja` |j e`by |e` yjj} ho}f`}w oloy| |j gbdfo|` geoac`! Da |edw

w`g|dja" D ldwgpww wjf` }`g`a| l`x`bjyf`a|w |eo| eox` yj|`a|dob da |edw }`co}l!

J}coadg Oc}dgpb|p}`J}coadg oc}dgpb|p}` mt d|w`bh goa fd|dco|` |e` gbdfo|` geoac`" ow |e` y}jlpg|dja

y}jg`ww daxjbx`w b`ww `fdwwdja jh c}``a ejpw` cow |eoa gjax`a|djaob" aja&j}coadg" oc}dgpb|p}`!

Pwdac b`ww ge`fdgob dayp|w obwj }`lpg` go}mja gja|`a| da wjdb" ow wejsa da Hdcp}` < m`bjs!

Hdcp}` < Wjdb Go}mja Gja|`a| jh J}coadg oal Aja&j}coadg Oc}dgpb|p}`

Wjp}g`; Wjdb Owwjgdo|dja" =994" gd|`l da!

J}coadg oc}dgpb|p}` obwj y}jxdl`w m`||`} oloy|o|dja |j gbdfo|` geoac`! Hj} `uofyb`"

j}coadg }dg` dw pwpobbt w|}jac`} oal fj}` }`wdbd`a| |j gbdfo|` xo}do|dja |eoa aja&j}coadg ja`w!

\e` wy}`ol jp| jh oyedlw oal s``xdbw" sedge o}` wjf`|df`w owwjgdo|`l sd|e gbdfo|` geoac`"

o}` obwj b`ww bdn`bt sd|e j}coadg oc}dgpb|p}`! Da fo}cdaob boalw" j}coadg oc}dgpb|p}` ho}fdac dw

pwpobbt fj}` y}jhd|omb`" ow |e` m`a`hd|w h}jf pwdac ge`fdgob h`}|dbd{`}w oal y`w|dgdl`w goa hobb

wej}| jh gjw| jh yp}geowdac |e`f! Gbdfo|`&}`bo|`l Yjx`}|t dw |epw b`ww y}`xob`a| ofjac

j}coadg ho}f`}w!

Gjffpad|t&mow`l Oloy|o|djaGjffpad|d`w goa e`by wy}`oldac oc}dgpb|p}ob y}og|dg`w |eo| o}` fj}` oloy|dx` |j

gbdfo|` geoac`w" fjw| aj|ombt mt weo}dac dahj}fo|dja oal `uy`}d`ag`w! J|e`} }`bo|`l

hpag|djaw o}` obwj yjwwdmb`" `wy`gdobbt |e` yjw|&gbdfo|` geoac` owwdw|oag`w! Da foat gow`w"

gjffpad|d`w goa og| ow oa `hh`g|dx` gjalpd| |j geoaa`b wjgdob woh`|t a`| owwdw|oag` h}jf |e`

g`a|}ob oal bjgob cjx`}af`a|w! Wjf` goa `x`a fjmdbd{` |e`d} jsa }`wjp}g`w |j fd|dco|` |e`

dfyog|w! Wjf` gjffpad|d`w goa obwj foaoc` ypmbdg oww`|w j} gjffja }`wjp}g`w wpge ow

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hdwe w|jgnw$! Ow gbdfo|` geoac` fot gopw` lofoc` |j gjffja oww`|w ow s`bb" |edw goyomdbd|t

wejpbl m` pw`hpb ow s`bb! Ejs`x`}" |e`}` w``f |j m` bdfd| jh gjffpad|d`w |j l`ob sd|e

`u|}`f` gbdfo|` geoac`w" m`gopw` |e` olkpw|f`a|w a``l`l da wpge bo}c` wgob` o}` aj| seo|

fjw| gjffpad|d`w eox` `uy`}d`ag`w! Sj}bl Moan =9?9$ gobbw hj} o wgobdac py |e`

gjffpad|t&mow`l wpgg`ww |j fj}` sdl`bt pw`!

Dawp}oag` ocodaw| Gbdfo|` Geoac`

\e`}` dw o c}jsdac da|`}`w| |j `fybjt hdaoagdob daajxo|dja |j e`by fd|dco|` gbdfo|`

geoac` olx`}w` dfyog|w" fjw| aj|omb` dawp}oag` wge`f`w! S`o|e`} dawp}oag` dw gb`o}bt o

y}df` `uofyb` jh wpge `hhj}|w! Cdx`a |eo| ho}f`}w o}` pwpobbt omb` |j gjy` sd|e fdbl gbdfo|`

geoac`" mp| aj| sd|e `u|}`f` ja`w" |e` fj}` wpd|omb` dawp}oag` wge`f`w o}` |ejw` dawp}dac

ocodaw| go|ow|}jyedg }dwnw0!

Wjf` dad|dob o||`fy|w da |edw o}`o eox` obwj m``a dfyb`f`a|`l da \eodboal! \e`

Sj}bl Moan bopage`l s`o|e`} dawp}oag` wge`f` o h`s t`o}w mogn! D| dw wjf`seo| }`g`dx`l

so}fbt mt |e` cjx`}af`a| oal yjbdgtfon`}w! \e` gp}}`a| \eod y}df` fdadw|`} f`a|dja`l|eo| da |e` bjac }pa s`o|e`} dawp}oag` sdbb }`ybog` |e` g}jy y}dg` cpo}oa|`` wge`f` gp}}`a|bt

da ybog`! \edw sdbb m` o cjjl fjx`" ow dawp}oag` dw fj}` fo}n`|&mow`l" fj}` `hh`g|dx`" oal

m`||`} |o}c`| |j |e` yjj} ho}f`}w!

Y}j|`g|dac |e` Yjj}`w|

\e` s`bb najsa hog| |eo| yjj} hofdbd`w o}` fj}` xpba`}omb` |j gbdfo|` geoac`w gobb hj}

wy`gdob |}`o|f`a| |jso}l |e`f! Cpo}oa|`` jh hjjl wphhdgd`agt" `d|e`} |e}jpce gowe j} da&

ndal |}oawh`} h}jf |e` cjx`}af`a|w" j} sd|e e`byw h}jf gjffpad|d`w" wejpbl m`

dfyb`f`a|`l! Fj}` c`a`}obbt" o fj}` gjfyb`|`" y`}eoyw padx`}wob" s`bho}` wtw|`f dw }`qpd}`l

da j}l`} |j fon` wp}` |eo| |e` yjj}`w| o}` aj| b`h| jp| jh |e` woh`|t a`|!

Mdj`a`}ct

Ja` }`g`a| l`x`bjyf`a| dw mdj&`a`}ct g}jyw! Cdx`a fjw| bjac&|`}f hj}`gow| jh edce

y}dg` jh hjwwdb&mow` `a`}ct" d| dw `axdwdja`l |eo| y}jlpg|dja mdj&`a`}ct g}jyw sdbb `uyoal`l"

oal m`gjf` fj}` yjypbo} ofjac ho}f`}w! D| dw w|dbb aj| gb`o} seo| |e` a`| dfyog|w ja

c}``aejpw` cow jh |e`w` g}jyw o}`! OLM=994$" gd|dac w|pld`w da Dalja`wdo" hjpal |eo|

mdj`b`g|}dgd|t goa }`lpg` GJ= `fdwwdja mt 09&?50 |G*eo! OLM=994$ gja|dap`w |j f`a|dja

\eodboal ow eoxdac w|}jac yj|`a|dob da |edw o}`o cdx`a d|w s`bb l`x`bjy`l oc}dgpb|p}ob w`g|j}!

Ejs`x`}" o }`g`a| w|plt da \eodboal KCW@@ =9?9$ }`x`obw o yjwwdmdbd|t |eo| wjf` jh |e`w`

g}jyw fdce| y}jlpg` a`| yjwd|dx` c}``aejpw` cow`w!

Yotf`a| hj} @axd}jaf`a|ob W`}xdg`

Ja` ajx`b dl`o |j fd|dco|` |e` gbdfo|` geoac` dw |j cdx` dag`a|dx` |j ho}f`}w oal

aja&ho}f`}w$ |j oljy| j} }`h}oda h}jf og|dxd|d`w |eo| o}` fj}` j} b`ww$ `axd}jaf`a|ob h}d`albt!

Hj} `uofyb`" yotf`a|w o}` fol` |j ho}f`}w sej oljy| oc}j&`gjbjcdgob y}og|dg`w |eo| `aeoag`

0 W``" hj} uofyb`" |e` Go}}dm`oa Go|ow|}jye` ]dwn Dawp}oag` Hogdbd|t %Sj}bl Moan" =9?9" mju =!?9$!

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}`wdbd`ag` |j |e` `gjbjcdgob wtw|`f! Hdcp}` 0 wejsw |e` m`a`hd| jh wpge yotf`a| wge`f` da

Adgo}ocpo! Ob|ejpce foat ho}f`}w w|jyy`l |e` y}og|dg`w |e`t s`}` yodl hj} jag` |e`

yotf`a| w|jyy`l" wjf` }`wpf`l jag` |e`t }`gjcad{`l |e` bjac&|`}f m`a`hd| jh |e` y}og|dg`w!

Hdcp}` 0 ]`w|j}dac l`c}ol`l yow|p}` da Adgo}ocpo pwdac yotf`a|w hj} `axd}jaf`a|ob

w`}xdg`w

Wjp}g`; Da|`}ao|djaob Moan hj} ]`gjaw|}pg|dja oal L`x`bjyf`a|" Sj}bl Moan" gd|`l da Juhof =994$!

\e` omjx` l`x`bjyf`a|w wejpbl m` gjawdl`}`l da olld|dja |j pwpob olxdg`w ja yjbdgt

f`owp}`w wpge |ou yjbdgt" m`||`} boal oal ho}f foaoc`f`a|" }`cpbo|j}t f`owp}`w oal

da|`}ao|djaob gjjy`}o|dja da fd|dco|dja `hhj}|w!

]jb`w jh Y}dxo|` W`g|j}

Y`}eoyw |e` fjw| y}jfdwdac o}`o jh ypmbdg y}dxo|` yo}|a`}wedy dw da s`o|e`} dawp}oag`

wge`f`w! Fjw| wge`f`w daxjbx` y}dxo|` w`g|j}" ow |e` hdaob oal wjf`|df`w da|`}f`ldo|`

dawp}`}w! Cjx`}af`a|w goa pw` |ou fja`t |j mpt g}jy dawp}oag` gja|}og|w" sedge goa m`

l`wdca`l ow oa jy|dja gja|}og|w |}dcc`}`l mt gbdfo|`&}`bo|`l daldgo|j}w wpge ow }odahobbw!

Ob|`}ao|dx`bt" o gjfyb`|`bt fo}n`|&mow`l wge`f` goa m` l`x`bjy`l" se`}` daldxdlpob ho}f`}w

yp}geow` |e` dawp}oag` gja|}og| |e`fw`bx`w! Geoalo}o| `|!ob =993$ y}jxdl`w o |e`j}`|dgobmognc}jpal ja gjald|djaw pal`} sedge wpge wge`f`w goa `udw|!

Oaj|e`} }`g`a| l`x`bjyf`a| |eo| goa m` hd||`l da|j |e` gbdfo|` geoac` gja|`u| dw |e`

gjag`y| jh wjgdob `a|`}y}dw`w W@$" sedge dw c`||dac fj}` o||`a|dja da \eodboal! D| dw xd`s`l ow

eoxdac yj|`a|dob hj} wpw|odaomb` oal t`| `hh`g|dx` f`oaw |j fd|dco|` |e` `axd}jaf`a| dfyog|w

jh `gjajfdg og|dxd|d`w! D| dw wpw|odaomb` m`gopw` |e`w` `a|`}y}dw`w }pa ja y}jhd|" j} o| b`ow| aj&

bjww" mowdw! Ow y}dxo|` `a|d|d`w" |e`t o}` obwj fjw|bt `hh`g|dx`" oxjdldac foat }`l |oy`w hog`l

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mt ypmbdg oc`agd`w! Foat wjgdob `a|`}y}dw`w o}` ob}`olt hjgpwdac ja dfy}jxdac `axd}jaf`a|w"

wj |j w|``} |e`f da|j gbdfo|` geoac` fd|dco|dja oal oloy|o|dja sdbb aj| m` ldhhdgpb|!

]`h`}`ag`w

Owdoa L`x`bjyf`a| Moan" =994! \e` @gjajfdgw jh Gbdfo|` Geoac` da Wjp|e`ow| Owdo; O]`cdjaob ]`xd`s!

Mplledao Apa|oxj}ono}a oal L`geo}p| Wpnnpfaj`l! =9?9! Ejs Wpw|odaomb` Oc}dgpb|p}`Y}jxdl` |e` Wjbp|djaw |j Bjs Go}mja oal Bjs ]dwn Wjgd`|t" Yoy`} y}`w`a|`l lp}dac|e` H}oagj&\eod W`fdao} ja Hjw|`}dac @gjajfdg C}js|e |e}jpce Bjs Go}mjaDad|do|dx`w da \eodboal" =0 =8 H`m}po}t =9?9" Gepbobjacnj}a Padx`}wd|t" Moacnjn"\eodboal

Geoa|o}o| W!" Ge}dw|jye`} M! Mo}}`||" Oal}`s C! Fpl` oal Gobpf C! \p}x`t! =993! Pwdacs`o|e`} dal`u dawp}oag` |j dfy}jx` l}jpce| }`wyjaw` hj} hofda` y}`x`a|dja"

Of`}dgoa Kjp}aob jh Oc}dgpb|p}ob @gjajfdgw" L`g" =993

G}p{" ]`u Xdg|j}" Edl`j Eo}owoso" Fp}o}d Bob" Weojejac Sp" Tp}dk Oajneda"Mo|dfoYpawobfoo" Towpwed Ejalo" Fjw|oho Koho}d" Gjacudoa Bd oal Acpt`a EppAdae! =993! -Owdo!- Da Gbdfo|` Geoac` =993; Dfyog|w" Oloy|o|dja oal Xpba`}omdbd|t!Gja|}dmp|dja jh Sj}ndac C}jpy DD |j |e` Hjp}|e Oww`wwf`a| ]`yj}| jh |e`Da|`}cjx`}af`a|ob Yoa`b ja Gbdfo|` Geoac`" `l! F!B! Yo}}t" J!H! Goa{doad" K!Y!Yobp|dnjh" Y!K! xoa l`} Bdal`a oal G!@! Eoawja"

]jw`a{s`dc" G!" O! Dcb`wdow" U! M! Toac" Y!]! @yw|`da" oal @! Gedxdoa" @! =99?! -Gbdfo|`Geoac` oal @u|}`f` S`o|e`} @x`a|w"- da Cbjmob Geoac` ( Epfoa E`ob|e" ==$; 49!

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Wpgeo}d| Njja|ononpbxjac! =9?9! Dfyog|w jh Gbdfo|` Geoac` ja Etljbjct oal Oc}dgpb|p}`da \eod$" o yoy`} y}`w`a|`l o| Gbdfo|` \eodboal Gjah`}`ag` =9?9" Opcpw| =9?9!

Wpyoyj}a Oapged}oge``xo oal \pb Ydano`s! =994! Juhof Ldwow|`} ]dwn ]`lpg|dja oalGbdfo|` Geoac` Oloy|o|dja ]`wjp}g`w; Gow` W|plt Kowfda` ]dg` da |e` S``ydacYboda; Oloy|dac ]dg` Ho}fdac |j Gbdfo|` Geoac` da Aj}|e`ow| \eodboal"! Juhof

CM!\jsaw`al" ]" H`bna`}" Kjea" oal Nofdbto \o{edmot`xo! =994! Dfyog|w jh Gbdfo|` Geoac`

ja ]dg` Y}jlpg|dja da \eodboal" Of`}dgoa @gjajfdg ]`xd`s; Yoy`}w ( Y}jg``ldacw=994" 44;=" =90=?9

Tpwph" O}d`h Oawej}t" oal E`}fdado O! H}oagdwgj! =994! Gbdfo|` Geoac` Xpba`}omdbd|tFoyydac hj} Wjp|e`ow| Owdo" @gjajft oal @axd}jaf`a| Y}jc}of hj} Wjp|e`ow|Owdo!

Sj}bl Moan! =9?9! Sj}bl L`x`bjyf`a| ]`yj}| =9?9; L`x`bjyf`a| oal Gbdfo|` Geoac`!