adapting to climate change: assessing world bank group experienceadaptation for istanbul nov 5 2012
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Developing countries are not yet well adapted even to current climate risks: floods, droughts and storm. Yet those risks are becoming harsher as the world warms, climate extremes become more intense, and the oceans rise – the consequences of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation highlights the findings and lessons learned from the evaluation of World Bank Group Experience in Cliamte Adaptation.TRANSCRIPT
Slide 1
Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experience
Kenneth Chomitz, Senior Advisor, IEG kchomitz at worldbank.org ieg.worldbankgroup.org Istanbul, 6 November 2012
Using monitoring and evaluation to accelerate adaptation and development
Outline
In a nutshell: monitoring and evaluation can be a mechanism for accelerating adapation and making it more efficient.
Two kinds of climate risk Two kinds of (desirable) adaptation, with inspirational
examples of monitoring and evaluation Early lessons from national adaptation projects Recommendations for monitoring national progress
towards resilience.
World Bank Group accomplishments against strategic framework goals: highlights
Accomplished: Strong increase in attention to climate in CAS/CPS Upsurge in projects dealing with climate change Significant analytic work
Not accomplished: Initiating screening of projects for climate risks Setting up results framework that is outcome-oriented
Overall: Significant innovation and investment, but: Lack of strategic focus Lost opportunities to learn from projects
Three types of adaptation, with examples
Net benefits later Net costs later
Net benefits now (Adaptation to current climate variability)
Net costs now
Resilient adaption to climate variability: Capacity building Hydromet services
Maladaptation: Unsustainable extraction of groundwater
Anticipatory adaptation: Climate-proofing
long-lived infrastructure
Coastal zone planning
No adaptive benefit: Unsustainable groundwater extraction for uneconomic crops
Adapting to climate variability: examples of things we need to know
Sustainable land management (SLM) Median reported ERRs of 20% info on SLM impacts on water availability and sensitivity of
household income to droughts
Index insurance Apparent success in Mongolia, though sustainability in question Generally low uptake in many pilots, though replication
continues impacts of insurance on welfare; efficacy of selling to
households vs to banks.
Disaster risk reduction Cost-effectiveness and sustainability of soft vs. hard approaches.
Measuring project impacts on resilience is useful; measuring expenditure on adaptation is fruitless
Nicaragua Atencion a Crisis Program provided small grants to rural households for business investment
Rigorous randomized control trial evaluation Household income increased 8% compared to controls
AND Recipients were completely insulated against drought
shocks while control groups suffered Take-aways:
This doesnt look like a stereotypical adaptation project but it measurably boosted resilience
No meaningful way to allocate expenditure between poverty reduction and adaptation
Real time learning pays off: the Sujala (Karnataka watershed) project
M&E costs integrated into project Real-time feedback led to improvements in efficiency
and in targeting benefits to women and landless. Demonstration of 25% income gains, plus environmental
gains, led to scale up and replication of project Bottom line:
Costs are manageable (Bank spends $600m/year on knowledge!)
Techniques are known Benefits are large
Maladaptation: a cautionary tale
Trees in the drylands: sponges or vampires? Afforestation in the Loess Plateau: exotic species reduced
sedimentation, increase carbon storage but depleted groundwater.
Info needs: model and then monitor hydrological and social impacts of land management and forestry interventions
Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank
The need for anticipatory adaptation
NASA image created by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory, using data obtained from the University of Marylands Global Land Cover Facility
TA project in Indian Sundarbans addresses long term spatial development planning
Anticipatory climate adaptation and land use planning: biodiversity
Example: Western Cape Province, South Africa There are few examples of long-term success in shaping
land use patterns M&E needs: track the success of ongoing efforts --such
as India Coastal Zone Mgt, Western Cape, and other projects in influencing land use patterns.
Climate risk management in WBG projects
Currently, screening for climate risk is ad hoc World Bank
FY 11: 23 of 179 projects identify a climate risk; 1 a long-term risk.
Some hydropower projects did climate sensitivity analyses IFC:
has only looked at climate risks within the period of its investment exposure
climate risks not identified in hydropower However, climate risk analysis now enshrined in Performance
Standards; IFC has undertaken insightful analysis of how climate risks affect
private sector
Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank
Climate models: limited applicability to project
Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Divergence of precipitation forecasts for 2030s for 8380 basins
Num
ber o
f bas
ins
(max forecast min forecast)/current mean
Source: Data from Strzpek, McCluskey, Boehlert, Jacobsen and Fant 2011
Recommendation: climate risk management
Develop reference guidelines for incorporating climate risk management into project and program design, appraisal, and implementation. Not meant to be rigidly prescriptive Guidance on when to worry, what tools to use: The challenge is widely shared; Bank Group could
convene scientists, industry experts to formulate approaches
Introduction 3 Kinds ClimVar Maladaptation Anticipatory Adaptation National Projects Towards a Solutions Bank
National-level adaptation projects
Kiribati Colombia Caribbean
Lessons from national-level projects
A focus on current concerns has been more attractive than anticipatory adaptation to long-term transformational threats.
Adaptation issues are deeply interlinked with development issues.
Projects have tended to spread themselves across too many locations and issues, straining limited capacity.
A strong theory of change is needed to guide actions. Planning and execution need to be concurrent and
iterative. Coordination is best vested in a powerful central agency.
Recommendations Track national progress towards resilience
Measures of institutional capacity Agricultural research and extension service performance Hydromet system performance and use
Direct measures of household resilience Sensitivity of household consumption to weather shocks
Biophysical measures of resilience water consumption recurrent flooding Population and infrastructure exposed to storm surges and
floods
Recommendations: more attention to anticipatory adaptaiton
Promote attention to anticipatory adaptation to long-run climate change. Especially for: Urban coastal areas Floodplains Estuaries National biodiversity strategies
Please visit ieg.worldbankgroup.org to read the report. Contact: kchomitz at worldbank.org Thank you!
Image creative commons license K Chomitz
Adapting to Climate Change:Assessing World Bank Group ExperienceOutlineWorld Bank Group accomplishments against strategic framework goals: highlightsThree types of adaptation, with examplesAdapting to climate variability:examples of things we need to knowMeasuring project impacts on resilience is useful; measuring expenditure on adaptation is fruitlessReal time learning pays off: the Sujala (Karnataka watershed) projectMaladaptation: a cautionary taleThe need for anticipatory adaptationAnticipatory climate adaptation and land use planning: biodiversityClimate risk management in WBG projectsClimate models: limited applicability to project Recommendation: climate risk managementNational-level adaptation projectsLessons from national-level projectsRecommendationsTrack national progress towards resilienceRecommendations: more attention to anticipatory adaptaitonPlease visit ieg.worldbankgroup.orgto read the report. Contact: kchomitz at worldbank.org Thank you!