adapting to extreme weather: perspectives of social actors
DESCRIPTION
Adapting to extreme weather: perspectives of social actors. Eleftheria Vasileiadou, Matthijs Hisschemöller , Arthur Petersen, Channah Betgen , Wilco Hazeleger , Iris de Hoog , Erik, Min . Bridging the gap: Problem definition. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Eleftheria Vasileiadou, Matthijs Hisschemöller, Arthur Petersen, Channah Betgen, Wilco Hazeleger, Iris de Hoog, Erik, Min
Adapting to extreme weather: perspectives of social actors
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Bridging the gap: Problem definition
Uncertainties with respect to changes in extreme weather events
Need for robust adaptation governance
Adaptation options with different, even conflicting, outcomes
... Indicators of extreme events for evaluating adaptation options relevant to stakeholders and robust for modellers
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Research questions1. Which perspectives are perceived as most important for
adaptation to extreme weather events by different social actors?
2. To what extent do actors’ perspectives correlate to actor characteristics, such as their affiliation with specific sectors, level of concern and knowledge?
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Why perspectives of social actors?1. Robust adaptation strategies: scenario independent; beneficial
to society inclusion of stakeholders
2. Tapping in local and tacit knowledge
3. Ensuring collaboration in adaptation measures
The way to find out about this is through a research approach that focuses on identifying the underlying frames that shape social actors´ views and opinions rather than focusing on (volatile) opinions and preferences
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Perspectives, meaning…Underlying frames that we use to make sense of our observations
and experiences.
Personal construct theory with a focus on bipolar constructs
e.g. Wet vs. Dry
Safe for me vs. Dangerous for me
I can intervene vs. I cannot intervene
Constructs are both a result of one’s experiences and examination of people and places, as well as they shape how individuals frame their world and experiences.
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Determinants of differences in perspectivesAffiliation with economic sectors
Level of information
Involvement in events and workshops
Level of concern
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Case sectorsImmediate response to extreme weather:
public health (6); crisis management (5); water sector (6)
Affected by extreme weather:hospitality (6); recreation (9); transportation (5), Vulnerable
individuals (4)
Total: 41 interviews
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Repertory Grid TechniqueBipolar constructs can be found, using as probing devices the “elements”: instances of the topic under investigation.
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Example
How are two photos similar and different from the third?
1 2 3
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ProcedureSelect the 3 “most important constructs, for adaptation
to extreme weather events”Ranking on a 1-7 scale all photos on these selected
constructsFactor analysis of 121 constructs (PCA)Additional questions: How informed you feel? (1-7) How concerned you feel? (1-7), Have you participated before in relevant events?(0/1)
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FindingsComponent Variance
explainedInterpretation
Perspective 1 16% Very disastrous, rescue needed
Perspective 2 15% New versus old weather extremes
Perspective 3 12% Prepare for (material) damage
Perspective 4 12% People involved
Perspective 5 12% Beyond imagination
Perspective 6 6% Natural resources management
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Perspective 1 “Very disastrous, rescue needed!” (12 interviewees)
i.e. Very disastrous --------------------------------------- least disastrous
Rescue needed fast --------------------------------- help can wait
Violent/ you can do little about --------------------peaceful and calm
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Perspective 2 “New versus old weather extremes” (13 interviewees)
i.e. High temperatures ------------------------------low temperatures
No impact on transportation------------------ Impacts on transportation
Happens the recent years---------------------happens since long
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Perspective 3 “Prepare for (material) damage” (8 interviewees)
i.e. Damage on electricity infrastructure-------no damage on electricity infras.
Need to prepare ------------------------------- no need to prepare
Causes maximal damage ------------------- causes no damage
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Perspective 4 “People involved” (4 interviewees)
i.e. Health impacts-------------------------------- No health impacts
Induced by humans-------------------------- not induced by humans
Response with help-------------------------- no response with help
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Perspective 5 “Beyond imagination” (8 interviewees)
i.e. Extreme------------------------------------------------ not extreme
Complete disaster-----------------------------------not complete ramp
Not possible to intervene-------------------------- possible to intervene
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Perspective 6 “Natural resources management” (3 interviewees)
i.e. Related to water (shortage) -------------- not related to water (shortage)
Threat to food production------------------no threat to food production
Complex adaptation measures ----------simple adaptation measures
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Determinants Relation to
extreme weatherInformedness (AA=55%)
Prior event (Yes=41%)
Perspective 1 Affected 18
Responding 3
29% 14%
Perspective 2 Affected 11
Responding 5
59% 24%
Perspective 3 Affected 7
Responded 5
42% 8%
Perspective 4 Affected 3
Responding 7
80% 100%
Perspective 5 Affected 7
Responding 6
77% 78%
Perspective 6 Responding 4 60% 60%
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Adaptation governance immediate help and crisis management (perspective 1);
addressing heat waves and drought (perspective 2);
preparing infrastructure for storms (perspective 3);
addressing events that endanger human lives and have victims (perspective 4);
natural resource management and spatial planning (perspective 6).
Are robust strategies, covering multiple perspectives, possible?
Perspectives are cross-sectoral: Sector-specific strategies may be too limiting
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How do extremes change in the future?
• Coldest winter day in the year: 1oC to 2.9oC warmer• Hottest summer day in the year: 1oC to 3.8oC warmer
• Long periods of precipitation in winter: 4% to 12% increase
• Extreme storms in summer: 5% to 27% increase
• No insight for changes in wind extremes
KNMI’06 scenarios for 2050
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Communicating extremesWe need to re-think the role and impact of events and workshops:
participants use formal and elaborate perspectives, but they don’t necessarily feel the need to prepare!
They may feel more prepared, but less concerned about extreme weather!