Adaptive Disaster Risk Reduction

PD. Dr.-Ing Joern Birkmann

Head of Section, UNU-EHSBonn, Germany

Global Risk Forum Davos 2012

A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events

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Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common

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There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these

extremes

New challenges for DRR

Need for adaptive DRR and adjustments of international response

◯ Increase planning horizon and work with multi-hazard approach

◯ Improve the consideration of future CC-hazards into response & reconstruction

◯ Rethink: time and spatial scales of DRR

◯ Evaluate the adaptiveness of DRR measures (e.g. EW, evacuation concepts etc.)

Humanitarian aid & DRR

Revisit existing norms and management approaches in times of crises and disasters

Strengthen the focus on how disasters might also function as a catalyst for change and resilience building

Evaluate the adaptiveness of DRR measures (e.g. EW, evacuation concepts etc.)

Improve the link between crises management, rehabilitation and climate resilient development

More strategic evaluation, e.g. establishment of DRR-CCA checklist

Potential to extend standards, e.g. SPHERE, to coordinate action of climate change and development stakeholders?

Incorporate DRR and CCA in bilateral agreements

Analysis of tools - priorities

Key thematic areas(based on HFA & Cardona et al.

2005)

Selected priority tools based on expert inteviews

Identification and understanding of risk

Risk and vulnerability assessment

Reduction of underlying risk factors

Planning and social development

Disaster preparedness and emergency management

Early warning systems (EWS)

Institutional capacities and financial mechanisms

National policy and legal frameworksand financial mechanisms

Adapting DRR tools

Risk and vulnerability Assessment• Resolution of CC projections• Accounting for different and dynamic exposure •Scenarios of vulnerability•Coping and adaptation capacities.• Timescales•Creeping changes

Specific types of urban development and rural-urban migration might increase the exposure of people to floods (example Mekong Delta VN)(Photo: Krause 2012)

Increasing exposure of people and assets has been the major cause of changes in disaster

losses (IPCC 2012)

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Challenges for Adaptation and DRR

The main challenge for local adaptation to climate extremes is to apply a balanced portfolio of approaches as a one-size-fits all strategy may prove limiting for some places and stakeholders. (IPCC 2012, p. 295)

While structural measures provide some protection from disasters, they may also create a false sense of safety. (IPCC 2012, p. 293)

Conflicts between governmental and non-governmental strategies and norms can generate additional vulnerabilities. (IPCC 2012, p. 86)

(Photos: Birkmann 2011; Map Source: Garschagen et al. 2012)

Conclusions

•We observe an emerging cooperation between Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation research (IPCC SREX). This cooperation has also to be strengthened in various countries, e.g. between different ministries (MoNRE – MARD).

•Exposure and vulnerability are dynamic. Hence we need also to develop different scenarios for vulnerability and risks (in addition to climate change scenarios).

•Vulnerability and risk assessment as well as adaptation strategies need to combine different data and knowledge sources as well as methodologies.

•Lastly, we have to critically review DRR measures that worked in the past (e.g. dyke construction), but might not work in the future.

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PD Dr. Joern Birkmann

UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITYInstitute for Environmentand Human Security (UNU-EHS)

Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10

53113 Bonn, Germany

Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0208

Fax: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299

E-Mail: birkmann@ehs.unu.edu