ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IN WILDLIFE CONSERVATION

John F. Organ1,2, Daniel J. Decker3, Shawn J. Riley4, John E. McDonald, Jr. 1,2, and Shane P. Mahoney5

1U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service2University of Massachusetts, Amherst3Cornell University4Michigan State University5Newfoundland and Labrador Dept. of Environment and Conservation

Adaptive ManagementAdaptive Management

►Arose out of the wildlife profession’s search for Arose out of the wildlife profession’s search for better solutions to increasingly complex better solutions to increasingly complex conservation challengesconservation challenges

►Primary Principle:Primary Principle: Decision makers should learn from their Decision makers should learn from their

management interventions and apply that management interventions and apply that knowledge to development of more effective knowledge to development of more effective management interventions in the futuremanagement interventions in the future

““Learning by doing”Learning by doing”

UncertaintyUncertainty

►Driving force behind adaptive managementDriving force behind adaptive management Dynamic nature of animal populationsDynamic nature of animal populations Dynamic nature of ecosystemsDynamic nature of ecosystems Dynamic nature of human social systemsDynamic nature of human social systems Uncertainty over disease etiology (white-nose Uncertainty over disease etiology (white-nose

syndrome)syndrome)

Whenever uncertainty exists, there is no guarantee that a Whenever uncertainty exists, there is no guarantee that a “smart choice” will lead to a good outcome or “smart choice” will lead to a good outcome or consequence.consequence.

1. Epistemological: 1. Epistemological: arising as a result of a lack of arising as a result of a lack of

knowledge about facts.knowledge about facts.

2. Linguistic: 2. Linguistic: failure to communicate clearly; ambiguity in failure to communicate clearly; ambiguity in how uncertainty is expressed e.g., what does it mean that how uncertainty is expressed e.g., what does it mean that an event is “likely” to happen; or “something probably an event is “likely” to happen; or “something probably won’t happen.” Or, use of vague terms such as “healthy won’t happen.” Or, use of vague terms such as “healthy wildlife population.”wildlife population.”

From: Burgman, M. A. 2005. Risks and decisions for conservation and environmental From: Burgman, M. A. 2005. Risks and decisions for conservation and environmental management. Cambridge University, Cambridge, England, UK.management. Cambridge University, Cambridge, England, UK.

Types of UncertaintyTypes of Uncertainty

Environmental UncertaintiesEnvironmental Uncertainties

Environmental variation: uncertainty about Environmental variation: uncertainty about weather and climateweather and climate

influences biological processes and induces influences biological processes and induces stochasticity in habitat and population dynamicsstochasticity in habitat and population dynamics

Also introduces stochastic behavior in human Also introduces stochastic behavior in human dimensions (e.g., rain on an opening day of a hunting dimensions (e.g., rain on an opening day of a hunting season.season.

Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:177-199.26:177-199.

Structural uncertainty: Structural uncertainty: limited knowledge about limited knowledge about underlying sociological and biological mechanisms, and underlying sociological and biological mechanisms, and about relationships between management actions and about relationships between management actions and desired outcomes.desired outcomes.

Managers generally have imperfect information or Managers generally have imperfect information or understanding about the system under management.understanding about the system under management.

Structural UncertaintiesStructural Uncertainties

Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:177-199.

Partial observability: Partial observability: reflects imprecision in the reflects imprecision in the monitoring of a sociological and biological systems.monitoring of a sociological and biological systems.

Uncertainty arises from inability to “perfectly” Uncertainty arises from inability to “perfectly” assess pertinent variables for management. That is, assess pertinent variables for management. That is, we can only view a limited number of variables and we can only view a limited number of variables and even those are usually measure without either even those are usually measure without either accuracy or precision.accuracy or precision.

Limited Data UncertaintiesLimited Data Uncertainties

Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:177-199.

Partial controllabilityPartial controllability: : expresses recognition that expresses recognition that management decisions only partially control the actual management decisions only partially control the actual magnitude of the corresponding action [e.g. harvest magnitude of the corresponding action [e.g. harvest regulations control actual harvest rates (and harvest regulations control actual harvest rates (and harvest effects) only within certain limits of precision.effects) only within certain limits of precision.

Especially pertinent with “volunteer” participants – Especially pertinent with “volunteer” participants – recreationalists – in management system.recreationalists – in management system.

Just because an agency issues Just because an agency issues xx number of permits number of permits does not mean that does not mean that x x number of animals are number of animals are harvested. Human behavior is critical affected by harvested. Human behavior is critical affected by social and environmental context.social and environmental context.

Management UncertaintiesManagement Uncertainties

Adapted from: Nichols, Johnson, and Williams. 1995. Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:177-199.Systematics 26:177-199

Adaptive Management ProcessAdaptive Management Process

►Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis►Objective SettingObjective Setting►Model Development and PredictionModel Development and Prediction► Identification and Selection of AlternativesIdentification and Selection of Alternatives►MonitoringMonitoring► ImplementationImplementation►Assess and AdjustAssess and Adjust► IterationIteration

Situation Situation AnalysisAnalysis

Fundamental Fundamental Objective(s)Objective(s)

Enabling Enabling ObjectivesObjectives

ObjectivesObjectives

Model Model DevelopmentDevelopment

Competing Competing ModelModel

Competing Competing ModelModel

Management Management AlternativesAlternativesImplementationImplementation

Assess & Assess & Adjust Adjust

MonitorMonitor

Stakeholder Stakeholder EngagementEngagement

IterateIterate

Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis

►Define and/or scope the problemDefine and/or scope the problem

►““Get your house in order”Get your house in order”

►Phase 1: Assess the management challenge and Phase 1: Assess the management challenge and social-ecological contextsocial-ecological context

►Phase 2: Engage stakeholdersPhase 2: Engage stakeholders

Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis

►Phase 1:Phase 1: Newfoundland caribou exampleNewfoundland caribou example

►Dramatic decline in caribou attributed to black Dramatic decline in caribou attributed to black bear, Canada lynx, and coyotebear, Canada lynx, and coyote

►Others suggest land uses are problemOthers suggest land uses are problem►Others think climate change is responsibleOthers think climate change is responsible

Phase 1Phase 1

►Phase 1:Phase 1: Newfoundland caribou exampleNewfoundland caribou example

►Biologists scoped all existing knowledgeBiologists scoped all existing knowledge►Initiated new studiesInitiated new studies►Developed conceptual model of systemDeveloped conceptual model of system►Identify potential stakeholders and needed Identify potential stakeholders and needed

expertiseexpertise

Stakeholder Stakeholder SatisfactionSatisfaction

Woodland Woodland Caribou Caribou PopulationPopulation

Calf Calf PredationPredation

Black Black BearBear

CoyoteCoyote

Canada Canada LynxLynx

MooseMooseHabitat Habitat ChangesChanges

Timber Timber ExtractionExtraction

Energy Energy ExtractionExtraction

Other Other UsesUses

OutfittersOutfitters

Resident Resident HuntersHunters

Tourist Tourist HuntersHunters

Cultural/HeritageCultural/Heritage

Climate Climate ChangeChange

Phase 2Phase 2

►Phase 2:Phase 2: Stakeholder engagementStakeholder engagement

►Stakeholder is any person who affects or is Stakeholder is any person who affects or is affected by the wildlife issueaffected by the wildlife issue Determining appropriate scale of stakeholder Determining appropriate scale of stakeholder

engagement importantengagement important Stakeholder engagement can affirm the management Stakeholder engagement can affirm the management

needneed Enlist local knowledgeEnlist local knowledge Foster trust and ownershipFoster trust and ownership

Objective SettingObjective Setting

►Objectives should be:Objectives should be: Clearly definedClearly defined AchievableAchievable Measurable within a specific time frameMeasurable within a specific time frame

Should represent Desired Future ConditionShould represent Desired Future Condition

Fundamental Objectives Fundamental Objectives

►Fundamental ObjectivesFundamental Objectives Cumulative outcomes of management that define the Cumulative outcomes of management that define the

desired future conditiondesired future condition Ideally, defined by stakeholdersIdeally, defined by stakeholders Should have at least one Enabling Objective linked to itShould have at least one Enabling Objective linked to it

►Enabling ObjectivesEnabling Objectives Focus on particular management intervention designed Focus on particular management intervention designed

to contribute towards achieving the Fundamental to contribute towards achieving the Fundamental ObjectiveObjective

ImpactsImpacts

►ImpactsImpacts

Significant beneficial and detrimental effects of Significant beneficial and detrimental effects of human-wildlife engagementhuman-wildlife engagement

These focus on the future conditions most desiredThese focus on the future conditions most desired

Model DevelopmentModel Development► A Model in the context of Adaptive Management is:A Model in the context of Adaptive Management is:

““a plausible representation of a dynamic natural resource system.”a plausible representation of a dynamic natural resource system.”

► Two levels of models can be used:Two levels of models can be used: Overall management system model (why management is needed)Overall management system model (why management is needed) Specific model focused on known and hypothesized relationships Specific model focused on known and hypothesized relationships

between alternative management actions and the enabling objectives between alternative management actions and the enabling objectives (how management will be achieved)(how management will be achieved)

► Having both levels of models provide:Having both levels of models provide:►Better structure to guide and communicate thinkingBetter structure to guide and communicate thinking►Increased decision-making capacityIncreased decision-making capacity►Increased rates of learningIncreased rates of learning

Identification and Selection of Identification and Selection of AlternativesAlternatives

►Different approaches to accomplishing Enabling Different approaches to accomplishing Enabling ObjectivesObjectives

►PredictionsPredictions If we conduct Alternative A, we expect Outcome XIf we conduct Alternative A, we expect Outcome X

►Involve StakeholdersInvolve Stakeholders Informs social acceptability of methodsInforms social acceptability of methods Can contribute creative ideas for a broader suite of Can contribute creative ideas for a broader suite of

optionsoptions

MonitoringMonitoring

►Critical to the Adaptive Management ProcessCritical to the Adaptive Management Process►Learn from Management and use that Learn from Management and use that

knowledge to improveknowledge to improve►Each intervention is treated as an experimentEach intervention is treated as an experiment

Results measuredResults measured Applied back to modelsApplied back to models Improve modelsImprove models Refine management interventionsRefine management interventions

ImplementationImplementation

►Decision-Making ProcessDecision-Making Process Incorporate scientifically-derived knowledge and Incorporate scientifically-derived knowledge and

experience-based insightsexperience-based insights Can be informal or highly rigorousCan be informal or highly rigorous Social acceptability a key criterionSocial acceptability a key criterion Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of the Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of the

wildlife resource must not be compromisedwildlife resource must not be compromised Wildlife managers must inform stakeholders as to Wildlife managers must inform stakeholders as to

acceptable limits of managementacceptable limits of management

ProblemProblem

ObjectivesObjectives

AlternativesAlternatives

ConsequencesConsequences

Tradeoffs & Tradeoffs & OrganizationOrganization

Decide & Decide & Take Take ActionAction

TriggerTrigger

Mandates:Mandates:Laws, Laws, PoliciesPolicies

Consider:Consider:Uncertainty Uncertainty & Linked & Linked DecisionsDecisions

Modeling Modeling ToolkitToolkitDataData

Values:Values:Preference Preference scales, scales, objective objective weights & weights & risk attitudes risk attitudes

SDM SDM Analysis Analysis ToolkitToolkit

Structured Decision MakingStructured Decision Making

Assess and AdjustAssess and Adjust

►Use Monitoring information to compare model Use Monitoring information to compare model predictions with actual responsespredictions with actual responses

►Fosters learning by assessing effectiveness of Fosters learning by assessing effectiveness of management approachmanagement approach

►Knowledge gained used to adjust system modelKnowledge gained used to adjust system model

IterationIteration

►Essentially a management cycle:Essentially a management cycle: Monitor resultsMonitor results Evaluate effectivenessEvaluate effectiveness Refine ModelsRefine Models Refine AlternativesRefine Alternatives Intervene/ImplementIntervene/Implement Monitor………Monitor………

Passive or Active Adaptive ManagementPassive or Active Adaptive Management

►Distinguished by degree to which they Distinguished by degree to which they emphasize the reduction of uncertaintyemphasize the reduction of uncertainty

►Difference in emphasis on learning in the Difference in emphasis on learning in the objectivesobjectives

►Both pursue the same rigorous processBoth pursue the same rigorous process

Active Adaptive ManagementActive Adaptive Management

►Pursues the reduction of uncertainty (learning) Pursues the reduction of uncertainty (learning) through managementthrough management

Objective is to learn; resource-related outcome is a Objective is to learn; resource-related outcome is a useful by-productuseful by-product

Passive Adaptive ManagementPassive Adaptive Management

►Pursues a resource-related objectivePursues a resource-related objective

Objective is to have a resource outcome; learning is a Objective is to have a resource outcome; learning is a useful by-productuseful by-product

SUMMARYSUMMARY

►Adaptive Management is an effective method to:Adaptive Management is an effective method to:

Deal with uncertaintyDeal with uncertainty

Learn from management actionsLearn from management actions

Be more effective in achieving desired results from Be more effective in achieving desired results from managementmanagement