adaptive systems & interaction jonathan grudin, microsoft research ciiti 2007
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Adaptive Systems & InteractionAdaptive Systems & Interaction
Jonathan Grudin, Microsoft Research
CIITI 2007
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Reasoning About Nonlinear Growth
20 Years of Moore’s Law
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30 Years of Moore’s Law
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40 Years of Moore’s Law
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50 Years of Moore’s Law
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Impact of Hardware ChangesImpact of Hardware Changes
HardwareR&D
SoftwareR&D
UserInterfaceR&D
ConsumerBehavior
Organizational& InstitutionalBehavior
1970s 1985 2000 2015?
New Generation of Technology UsersNew Generation of Technology UsersNew technologiesNew technologies IM, text messaging, IRCIM, text messaging, IRC Tagging, weblogs, wikisTagging, weblogs, wikis GPS, real-time visualization, GPS, real-time visualization,
map mash-upsmap mash-ups Digital photos, music, videoDigital photos, music, video Digital places and spacesDigital places and spaces
New behaviorsNew behaviors Multimedia authoringMultimedia authoring Multi-taskingMulti-tasking Emotion & engagementEmotion & engagement Search, browse, assess, synthesizeSearch, browse, assess, synthesize
Adaptive Systems & InteractionAdaptive Systems & Interaction
search
machine learning
surface computing Bayesian principles
sharing and privacy
tablet computing
interruption and recovery
forecasting availability
technology adoption
notification systems
Categories of most weblogs todayCategories of most weblogs today– Public personal interactive diariesPublic personal interactive diaries– ‘‘A-list’ bloggers on politics, technology, events, cool A-list’ bloggers on politics, technology, events, cool
stuffstuff
Corporate use progressionCorporate use progression Incoming: event coverageIncoming: event coverage Incoming: monitor comments on your productsIncoming: monitor comments on your products Externally-facing: tremendous ability to put human face Externally-facing: tremendous ability to put human face
on your enterpriseon your enterprise Internally-facing: approach to project visibility and Internally-facing: approach to project visibility and
knowledge managementknowledge management
Weblogs in the Workplace
Managing Knowledge: Challenges & Managing Knowledge: Challenges & Potential SolutionsPotential Solutions
• Digital documents are difficult to find– Adding metadata is work– People disagree on labels
► Tagging – lightweight, visible, bottom-up (flickr, del.icio.us)– Is ontology overrated?
• Documents are difficult to assess– Context missing
► Project weblogs linked to document repository– Like a project “Read Me” file, or comments on code
• So people bypass system– Expertise locator software hasn’t succeeded
► Search technologies, browsing skills will contribute
JamBayesJamBayes Streaming IntelligenceStreaming Intelligence
projectproject
Machine learning & Machine learning & reasoning for traffic reasoning for traffic
Hosted in Hosted in SmartphlowSmartphlow
Considers: Considers: Traffic flows and current Traffic flows and current incidentsincidents
WeatherWeather
EventsEvents
Prediction of time until jams will appear
Times until traffic jams will disappear
• Event store• Learning• Reasoning
Multiple views on trafficMultiple views on traffic
Operator ID: NickOperator ID: Nick
Heading: INCIDENTHeading: INCIDENT
Message: INCIDENT Message: INCIDENT INFORMATIONINFORMATION
Cleared 1637: I-405 Cleared 1637: I-405 SBSB
JS I-90 ACC BLK RL JS I-90 ACC BLK RL CCTVCCTV
1623 – WSP, FIR ON 1623 – WSP, FIR ON SCENESCENE
Incident reportsIncident reports
WeatherWeather
Major eventsMajor events
Machine Learning for Machine Learning for Traffic PredictionsTraffic Predictions
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• Data store• Inference• User logs
• System-wide status & dynamics• Incident reports• Sporting events• Weather• Time of day• Day of week• Season• Holiday status
Surprise!
• Predictive models
JamBayesJamBayes and and SmartPhlowSmartPhlow