adbms sales forecasting and market research.ppt

7/29/2019 ADBMS sales forecasting and market research.ppt

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Advanced MarketingBiMBA 2006

Sales Forecasting and Market

Research


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2

Forecasted Sales reflect

1. The size of the target market

2. The marketing mix chosen for the

target market

3. The assumed number of competitors

and competitive intensity in the

target market


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3

Sales Forecasting

Key Terms in Forecasting

Market

Potencial MarketTarget Market

Market Penetration

Market Potencial


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Market Potencial

Tjere ate three aspects of market potencialMarket Enviornment

Market expenditure by industry

Market Demand


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Some more terms

Market Forcasts

Company Demand

Company forecasts


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SALES FORECASTING

Sales forecast Estimate of a firms revenue for aspecified time period.

QUALITATIVE FORECASTING

TECHNIQUES

Jury of Executive Opinion

Combines and averages the outlooks of top executives

from such areas as marketing, finance, production,

and purchasing.

Delphi Technique

Solicits opinions from several people, but it also gathers input from experts

outside the firm rather than relying completely on company executives.


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Sales Force Composite

Develops forecasts based on the belief thatorganization members closest to the marketplace offer

the best insights concerning short-term future sales.

Typically works from the bottom up.

Survey of Buyer Intentions

Gathers input through mail-in questionnaires, online

feedback, telephone polls, and personal interviews to

determine the purchasing intentions of a representative

group of present and potential customers.


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QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

Test Markets Gauges consumer responses to a new product

under actual marketplace conditions.

Allows researchers to evaluate the effects ofdifferent

prices, alternative promotional strategies, and

other marketing mix variations.


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Trend Analysis

Develops forecasts for future sales by analyzing

thehistorical relationship between sales and time.

Exponential Smoothing

Sophisticated method of trend analysis thatweighs each years sales data, giving greater

weight to results from the most recent years.


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Market Potencial Estimation

Y = n x ux p


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Making aSales Forecast

Market potential (M)

Proportion of market you are Targeting (T)

Extent of market Coverage (C)

Number ofUnits expected to sell per

customer during the year (U) Average Price per unit (P)

Sales Forecast is a function of:

Sales Forecast = M x T x C x U x P


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Marketing research Process of collecting and

using information for marketing decisionmaking.

Marketers use data from a variety of sources

to understand customers, target customersegments, and develop long-term customer

relationships.

Research is the primary source of informationused to make effective marketing decisions.


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WHO CONDUCTS MARKETING

RESEARCH?

Size and form of research often tied to

corporate structure.

Many firms outsource research needs.

Major U.S. marketing research firms include

ACNielsen

and Arbitron.

Syndicated Services

Organizations that regularly provide a

standardized set of data to all customers.
http://www.acnielsen.com/http://www.arbitron.com/http://www.arbitron.com/http://www.acnielsen.com/


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THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS

Usually follows a six-step process.

DEFINE THE PROBLEM

Well-defined problems are half-solve

Avoid confusing symptoms with problem itelf.

Loss of market share is a symptom;

reason for the loss is the problem.

Evaluate firms marketing mix and possiblechanges to the marketing environment.


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CONDUCT EXPLORATORY RESEARCH

Exploratory research Process ofdiscussing a marketing problem with

informed sources both within and outside

the firm and examining information fromsecondary sources.


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Using Internal Data

Research from customer surveys and

demographic data.

Sales analysis can compare expected

sales with actual sales and be analyzed in a

variety of ways, such as by customer type,

sales method, and others.

Accounting data provides information about

financial issues.

Marketing cost analysis evaluates expenses for

a variety of costs.


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FORMULATE A HYPOTHESIS

A tentative explanation for some specificevent.

Sets the stage for more in-depth research.

CREATE A RESEARCH DESIGN

A master plan or model for conducting

research.

Must ensure it will measure what researchers

intend to measure.


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COLLECT DATA

Secondary data Previously published

information.

Primary data Information collected

specifically

for the investigation at hand.

Primary costs more to gather but can be much

more valuable.


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INTERPRET AND PRESENT

RESEARCH INFORMATION Present in a format that allows managers

to

make effective judgments.

Researchers and end users must

collaborate toensure effectiveness of research.

Reports must be clear and concise.

Must ex lain technical terminolo .


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MARKETING RESEARCH METHODS

SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION

Secondary data comes from many sources.

Can be internal data or external data.

Government Data

CSO

Economic Survey

Finance minostry


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Private Data

Variety of sources:

Trade associations.

Business and trade magazines. Information gathered from scanning

technology.

Increasing use of radio-frequency

identification for inventory

control.


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Online Sources of Secondary Data Online databases.

Research aggregators acquire, catalog,reformat, segment, and resell premium research

reports.

Internet discussion groups, chat rooms, and

newsgroups.


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SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

Sampling Process of selecting surveyrespondents or research participants.

Populationtotal group of people a

researcher wants to study.

Researchers rarely sample the entire

population.


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Probability sample Sample that gives every

member of the population a chance of being selected.

Simple random sampleevery member of relevantgroup has

equal opportunity to be sampled.

Nonprobability sample Sample that involves

personal judgment somewhere in the process.


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PRIMARY RESEARCH METHODS

Choice of method depends on the issues under study and the decisions

marketers need to make.


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Observation Method

Researchers view the overt actions of subjects beingstudied.

Example: Counting the number of cars that pass by a

potential

restaurant location.

Use increasingly sophisticated ways of tracking

behavior.

In response to digital video recording, Nielsen Media

Research has changed the way it reports television

viewership.


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SURVEY METHOD

Researchers must ask questions to get information on

attitudes, motives, and opinions.

Telephone Interviews

Quick and inexpensive way of getting a small

quantity of relatively impersonal information.

Many people refuse to take part or are reluctant

to give personal information over the phone.

Not a viable option in international markets where

phone usage is rare.

Personal Interviews

Allow researchers to obtain detailed information and ask follow-up

questions.

May use mall intercepts, interviews conducted in shopping malls.


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Focus Groups

Focus group Simultaneous personalinterview of a small group of individuals,

which relies on group discussion about a

certain topic. Encourage general discussion of a selected

topic.

Valuable for exploratory research, such asnew product development.

Drawback is potential lack of honesty due to

peer pressure.


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Mail Surveys

Cost-effective means that allows respondents

anonymity.

Response rates typically lower than for personal

interviews and are time-consuming.

May be subject to bias through self-selection.


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Fax Surveys

Limited household use makes getting a good sample difficult.

Federal junk fax law limits fax transmissions for commercial

purposes.

Online Surveys and Other Internet-Based Methods

Allows researchers to speed the survey process, increase samplesizes, ignore geographic boundaries, and dramatically reduce costs.

Marketers are experimenting with Web questionnaires and

electronic bulletin boards.

No standard has developed for measuring Web use.

Some software can monitor a users viewing habits and display

targeted banner ads.


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Experimental Method

Least used method.

Controlled experimenta scientific investigation in which a researcher

controls or manipulates a test group and compares the results with those of a

control group.

Most common use is for test marketingintroducing a new product in a

specific area and then observing its degree of success.

Can be expensive and allow competitors to learn about new products

quickly.

Alternatives include computer modeling software, regional product

launches, and limiting product to a single retail outlet to allow for carefulevaluation.


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CONDUCTING INTERNATIONAL MARKETING

RESEARCH

Follow same basic steps as for domestic marketing research.

U.S. Department of Commerce offers reports and guides about almost

every country in the world.

Export America and Overseas Business Reports.

Researchers must be aware of cultural and legal environments.

May have to adapt research methods to local conditions.

Example: Focus groups may be difficult to organize in countries

where violence and kidnapping are common.
http://www.export.gov/exportamerica/http://www.export.gov/exportamerica/


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INTERPRETIVE RESEARCH

Provides insight into consumer behaviour and the

ways consumers interact with brands.

Researcher spends time studying the culture, calledethnographic research.

Focus is on understanding the meaning of the

product or consumption in the consumers life. Cost is higher than other forms of research.

Captures what consumers actually do, not just what

they say they do.


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COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY IN

MARKETING RESEARCH

MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEMS (MIS)

A planned, computer-based system designed to provide decision makers

with a continuous flow of information relevant to their areas of

responsibility. Well-constructed MIS is the companys nerve center because it continually

monitors marketing environment and provides instantaneous information.

MARKETING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (MDSSs)

Marketing decision support system (MDSS) Marketing information

system component that links a decision maker with relevant databases and

analysis tools.

Develops raw data into information useful for decision making.


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DATA MINING

The process of searching through computerized data files to detect

patterns.

Focuses on identifying relationships that are not obvious to marketers.

Efficient way to sort through huge amounts of data and make sense of it.

Example: NACCO Industries uses data mining to scan warrantyclaims for common problems.

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE

Process of gathering information and analyzing it to improve business

strategy, tactics, and daily operations.

COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE

A form of business intelligence that focuses on finding information about

competitors using published sources, interviews, observations by salespeople

and suppliers in the industry and other sources
http://www.nacco.com/http://www.nacco.com/

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