Understanding Change:Smart Grids - A Grand Challenge

for Complex Engineering Systems

Adrian V. GheorgheC4UC and Old Dominion University

Norfolk, Virginia

Assisted by Hal Warren

The Electrical Grid: A Large, Fragmented, Complex Critical

Infrastructure

Extraordinary Threats

Risk Perception Black Swan Events Feral Events

Low Probabilities – High Consequences

Space Weather

The distortion of the Earth's magnetic field caused by a corona mass ejection (CME) (p, e)

A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms

A rapidly changing geomagnetic field over large regions will induce Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (i.e. GIC a quasi-DC

current) to flow in the continental interconnected Electric Power Grids

Storm causes Geomagnetic Field Disturbances from Electrojet Current

that couples to Power Systems

Currents in Electric Mains andGround Induced by Ionosphere Electric Currents

Damaged GSU

Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) flow has potential to cause wide-spread catastrophic damage to key Generator Step

UP (GSU) transformers Causing Restoration Problems

Salem Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer Failure, March ‘89

Increased hum from magnetostriction (the slight change of length exhibited by a ferromagnetic object when magnetized)

Station 3 Gen Transformer 4 HV winding failure

Station 3 Gen. Transformer 5 evidence of overheating

Courtesy Eskom, Makhosi, T., G. Coetzee

Overview of South Africa EHV Transformer Failures due to Oct-Nov 2003 Geomagnetic Storms

Failures linked to Long Duration / Low Intensity GIC Exposure

Starfish Prime HEMP (7/8/1962)

Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) effects Generates an Earth-surface potential (1-10 V/km) Drives a quasi-DC ground current (10-100A ~DC) Duration 2-4 hours

High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) from nuclear weapon effects are more intense 10X voltage (10-100 V/km) 10X current (~1000A ~DC)(0.1 Hz) 10-15 minutes/burst

Smart Grid Benefits More efficient transmission of electricity Quicker restoration of electricity after power disturbances

caused by Space Weather, severe storms, earthquakes, and terrorist attacks, etc.

Reduced operations and management costs for utilities, and ultimately lower power costs for consumers

Reduced peak demand, which will also help lower electricity rates

Increased integration of large-scale renewable energy systems Better integration of customer-owner power generation

systems, including renewable energy systems That is, a smarter grid will add resiliency to our electric

power system

The Smart Grid

Protection of the Power Transformer using Smart Grid

Switching

The E+I paradigm

Energy-Plus-Information

Within each company: operations, maintenance… Along the supply chain Prosumers with other stakeholders Among prosumers/companies For market transactions

EEnergy

Info

E

I

(E)+(I)

support associationisolation blending

(E+I)

digitization

T

Smart Grid Technologies are Supported on a Platform of

IC/ICS

Information Communications (IC) synonymous term for Information and Communication Systems (ICS)

NIST Smart Grid Framework

Smart Grid Information Networks

Dormant Threats

”If you want to hit a country severely you hit its power and water supplies. Cyber technology can do this without shooting a single bullet.”

• Isaac Ben-IsraelIsraeli military scientist, general and politician, currently the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, both at the Israel Ministry of Science and Technology

Consequences of Pervasive ICS

ICS security requirements not always explicit Standards lagging behind (IEC, ISO 7799)

Vulnerabilities During whole life-cycle: design process, implementation, operation,

maintenance. ICS security policies and management

Threats: All on-line systems are exposed to malicious actions

(terrorism, organized crime, activists) Connectiveness: gate to insider threats Complexity: human errors, systemic failures Use of technologies with improper protection (wireless,

internet …)©2009 A. Gheorghe All Rights Reserved

Security Requirements Undermined by Security

Threats

Security Solution = Technologies and Policies

Complex Problems

“We cannot solve problems by using the

same kind of thinking we used when we

created them.”

Albert Einstein

• That is, anyone's knowledge and understanding is limited to his own experience, training, education, and information sources

• Therefore, we must continue the advancement of science and knowledge, which expands the inventory of possible solutions to any problem often in COMPLEX ways

CIP-DSS History

9-11 terrorist attacks on U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Need for risk assessment and management

tools to protect the nation’s critical infrastructure

Desire for “spreadsheet” table showing “risks” for many different “targets” and many different kinds of “attacks/failures”

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Critical Infrastructure Sectors

Agriculture and Food

Banking and Finance

Chemical

Commercial Facilities

Communications

Critical Manufacturing

Dams

Defense Industrial Base

Emergency Services

Energy

Government Facilities

Healthcare and Public Health

Information Technology

National Monuments and Icons

Nuclear Reactors, Materials and Waste

Postal and Shipping

Transportation Systems

Water

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Infrastructure Interdependencies

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DHS view of “Risk” Threats:

weapons of mass destruction (chem/bio/nuke); physical attack/disruption/failure; cyber attack/disruption/failure; major accidents; insider/outsider malevolent attack; natural disasters

System Vulnerabilities: physical; human; cyber; intellectual; dependencies;

interdependencies

Consequences: loss of life; economic loss; environmental degradation; loss of

property; loss of reputation/morale

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Critical Infrastructure Protection – Decision Support System (CIP-DSS)

Consists of a suite of interdependent infrastructure models

Simulates propagation of disruptions across infrastructures

Enables analysis of consequences in a complex “system of systems”

Offers risk-informed decision support to help identify investment strategies and other options to manage risk

Source: B. Bush

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CIP-DSS Vision

Source: B. Bush

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CIP-DSS Project Architecture

Source: B. Bush

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Example: Telecom Disruption

Source: B. Bush

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C4UC

A non-profit and non-partisan think tank that:1) Offers products and services to solve clients’ problems in the area of global change and risk

We provide insight to our constituents in a time of increasing complexity and decreasing understanding We help our constituents understand the ripple effects of their actions and how specific changes, events, and phenomena affect them We do this by building on an existing massive intellectual and financial investment in systems models and deep data assets, cross-connected by a unique software framework We use these assets in conjunction with an advanced decision-making tool and integrated visual analytics which allows our constituents an intuitive grasp of impact, alternative paths, and implications

2) Conducts independent research in partnership with other scientific organizations Applied Research in Modeling and Simulation Research in Global Complexity and Interconnectedness

3) Provides education and training to raise awareness on The value of wide thinking Global change and risks in times of increasing complexity and decreasing understanding The ripple effects of actions and how specific changes, events, and phenomena affect them

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FOCUS AREAS SERVICES AND PRODUCTS

Client Delivery (business sustainment / money making activities)

SERVICES– Problem formulation– Team facilitation– Decision support– Solution communication– Investigate of specific Issues – Strategic reviews to Identify formerly

unseen problems on the horizon

– Stress tests of strategic plans– Watch services to monitor how these

problems change over time– Facilitation of access to our models &

data– Subscription Service to our models and

data

PRODUCTS– Software (new models)– Access to our models & data

– Frameworks and approaches

R & D – Model development– Database development– Tool building and development– White papers

– Applied research in modeling and simulation

– Research in global complexity and interconnectedness

Education (non-profit activities)

– Education and awareness for general public

– Executive training

– Training modules– Keynote and motivational speeches

C4UC

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Nominal Organization

C4UC team is comprised of a dedicated and accomplished team of individuals that care about the mission and the consequences of no action.

David M. HammondChief Operating Officer

W. Bradley HoltzChief Strategist

Dr. John CummingsChief Scientist

Silvana Nani Director of Business

Development

Dr. Phares Noel Constituent Advocate

Dr. David UllmanDirector of Decision

Science

Mike Riddle Director of Meta-

Model Architecture

Joseph Juhnke Director of

Visualization

Dr. Miriam HellerDirector of Model and Data Integrity

Dr. Adrian V. GheorgheInt’l Science Director

Don Richardson Outreach

Dr. Marie-Michelle Strah Grants

Board of Direction Brad Holtz, Chair

Dr. Richard H.F. JacksonDavid Hammond

John VoellerChuck House

Board of Business AdvisorsDr. Oleg Shilovitsky

Dr. Marie-Michelle StrahScott Brinks

Robert Courtland, Esq.Dana K. 'Deke' Smith, FAIA

Board of Science AdvisorsDr. Robert ‘Doc’ HallDr. Jim Peerenboom

John GageDick Morley

Dr. Richard H.F. Jackson Chief Executive Office

Carolyn Castillo Business Planning

Brian SeitzEnterprise Architect

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Dr. Richard H.F. Jackson, Chief Executive Officer Founding Director, FIATECH and former Director, Manufacturing Engineering, NIST

David M. Hammond, Chief Operating Officer Senior Program Manager, US Coast Guard, Co-Founder and Executive Board Member, buildingSMART alliance, NIBS, and Co-Chair, Emerging IT, FFC, Nat’l Academy of Science

W. Bradley Holtz, Chief Strategy Officer co-founder & Chief Executive Officer, Cyon Research

Dr. John Cummings, Chief Scientist former Director of R&D, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Department of Homeland Security

Dr. Adrian V. Gheorghe, Int’l Science Director Senior Research Scientist, National Centers of System of Systems Engineering, and Editor-in-Chief, International Journal of Critical Infrastructure

Dr. Miriam Heller, Dir. of Model and Data Integrity Founder/Principal of MHITech, Systems and Adjunct Professor, Energy and Climate Program, Johns Hopkins University,

Dr. Phares Noel, Constituent Advocate Adjunct Professor Computer Science, U of Michigan-Flint, and former Platform Executive, Advance Manufacturing Engineering Chrysler Corporation

Dr. David Ullman, Director of Decision Science founder, Robust Decisions

Carolyn Castillo, Business PlanningFormer Program Management Specialist, Boeing and Senior Examiner for the California Council for Excellence

Joseph Juhnke, Director of VisualizationPresident & Chief Executive Officer, Tanagram

Silvana Nani, Director of Business Development Serial entrepreneur (domestic and international), former associate at Booz Allen, former managing partner at Domus-USA

Don Richardson, Outreach former Senior Director of Global Innovation and PLM, Microsoft

Mike Riddle, Director of Meta-Model Architecture author of the software on which AutoCAD was based (Interact) and co-founder, Autodesk

Brian Seitz, Systems Engineer former Chief Process Manager and Architect of IBM’s marketing process, and former Architecture and Methodology Senior Technologist, Microsoft

Roles and Responsibilities

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Partnership Agreements

Sandia National Labs (MOU) Argonne National Lab (MOU) Santa Fe Institute Stanford University MIT Los Alamos National Lab (Pending) International Partners? …

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Legal and Structural

Maryland Incorporation Filing [completed] IRS EIN [completed] D&B Number [completed] Establish Bank Account [completed] 501 (c) (3) filing IRS Form 1023 Filing (27mos) [in progress] Intellectual Property Agreements [in progress] Web Presence

Time to Wake Up – Jeremy Grantham,

GMO

Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has

caused a permanent shift in their value We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if

we did it quickly

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A Transformed World :National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2025

The Globalizing Economy The Demographics of Discord The New Players Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty? Growing Potential for Conflict Will the International System Be Up to the Challenges? Power-Sharing in a Multipolar World

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Global Risks 2011: World Economic Forum

Three important risks in focus: The “macroeconomic imbalances” nexus The “illegal economy” nexus The “water-food-energy” nexus

Five risks to watch: Cyber-security Demographic challenges Resource security Retrenchment from globalization Weapons of mass destruction

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Sustainable Energy Security: Lloyd’s

The changing dynamics of energy demand and resource availability

Climate change and the drive towards renewable energy

The risks associated with a new technology revolution

Risks to energy and transport infrastructure Challenges and risks for global businesses

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C4UC Contribution?

Establish relationships with “deep silo knowledge” partners Modeling and analysis Critical data and datasets Subject-matter experts

Build “internal” expertise Generalists and consultants Analysts Subject-matter experts when needed Operational team

Get started Solve some problems Write some papers and “thought pieces” Seek and earn recognition

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C4UC team can leverage the collective expertise, knowledge of the systems and players, and our Vision for a viable future to provide insight to decision makers and increase awareness and improve education among all audiences !

Models and Methods

Focus on

Critical infrastructure systems

Interdependencies between coupled infrastructures

Performance measures for decision-making

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Types of Interdependencies

Type of Failure

Infrastructure Characteristics

State of Operation

Context/Performance

Coupling/ResponseBehavior

Loos

e/Ti

ght

Line

ar/

Com

plex

Es

cala

ting

C

asca

ding

Com

mon

Cau

se

Spatial

Temporal

Operational

Organizational

Economic

Legal/

Regulatory

Technical

Social/Political

Physical

Cyber

Logical

Geographic

Adaptiv

e

Infle

xible

Stressed/

Disrupted

Repair/

RestorationN

ormal

Business Public Policy Security EHS

Coupled Systems Framework

(after Rinaldi et al., 2002)

Models and Methods System Dynamics Models (CIPDSS) Agent Based Models (TRANSIMS) Economic Models

Input-Output Economic Models Computable General Equilibrium

Supply Chain (SuperNetworks) Probability, Risk & Decision Theoretic Models Sector Specific Models

Hydrological/Hydraulic Models Transportation Models

Network flows (Integrated Transportation) Land Use Models Continuum Models

Multiscale, multiphysics Models …

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**

Modeling Tools Inventory

Building an inventory of modeling tools

Sandia models: transportation, energy, economic, financial, chemical, agriculture and food, health, or integrated

Attributes: Product Name, Type of Capability, Purpose, Use 17 active + 4 inactive models 2 active Sandia models for use: FASTMAP for situational awareness and

mapping; other is workbench supporting FASTMAP; proprietary data 19 Models can be run by Sandia with caveats

Reference Management System

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SimSUWER Example: Problem Background

WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM

July 2003 - M. Heller ©

SimSUWER: Causal Loop Diagram

+

+

_

_

+

_

+

+

+

+

++

+

_

__

_

+

+

+_

+

_

_

_

+

+_

_

+

_

_

_

+

S SOs

Allocation toP reve ntive

Maintenance

Allocationto Publi cEducation

Allocation toRehabili tation

Subsidies

Allocationto Relie f

P reve ntiveRehabili tation

CorrectiveRehabili tation

AverageAnnual

Complaints

Funds

Revenue

CompletedRehabili tation

No n-I/IComplaints

Rain-InducedI/I

S anitarySewer Inputs

P reve ntiveRehabili tation

Unit Costs

CorrectiveRehabili tation

Unit CostsRates

TotalSewerInputs

Pena lties

PendingComplaints

Complaintsaddre ssed

Illegal / FaultyService Connections

Wet WeatherComplaints

Allocation toR&D

TechnologyAllocation toCorrective

Maintenance

SimSUWER Past and Future NSF funded $900K + City of Houston $500K

System Dynamics Model implemented in PowerSim 26 stocks; 42 flows: 122 auxiliaries, 56 constants and 295 links

representing interactions Six components: Inputs, Treatment, Relief Options, Finance, Indicators,

User Interface Model use and evaluation

Scenario analysis varying number of SSOs, annual complaints, wastewater fund behavior

Clarifier option dominated all others in all performance variables Way ahead: SimSUWER as foundation for Baltimore City’s SSO problem

Add climate change impacts, TMDLs issues, green infrastructure options Enhance with independencies to capture water-energy nexus effects Engage stakeholders for Robust Decision Making

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Why run simulations?

To support making decisions.

But, cant simulation results give the optimum

solution?Maybe in your perfect world, but

imperfect models are used to predict the future

The science that provides the data to the models is often

uncertain

Some things are not really modelable

There are many stakeholders

“When you cannot measure it…your knowledge is of

meager and unsatisfactory

kind” Lord Kelvin

“Oh, well, if you cannot measure,

measure anyhow”. Dr. Frank Knight

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”.

Niels Bohr

So what if there are many stakeholders?

They all value different things. These different value sets must be honored

What does it take to get stakeholder buy-in?

To make the decision “stick” you need to develop their buy-n

The stakeholders each interpret and believe the results of the simulations in

his/her own context

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C4UC Ecosystem

CLIENTS

PARTNERS (Science Community)

PARTNERS (Universities & Organizations)

STAKEHOLDERS (Strategic Partners)

ORGANIZATIONS

PUBLIC

Non For Profit Activities Sustaining Activities

Product

s &

Service

s

P&S, R&D,

White Papers

R&D, StudiesWhite Papers

R&D, Studies

White Papers

Education & Training

Education

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THANK YOU !