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©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Absorbing the Network Impact of Video
Kevin Morgan Director - Marketing
October 9, 2013
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Global Market Trends
Broadband / Ethernet Access ◦ Exponential growth in bandwidth access ◦ IP traffic will increase 4x over next five years ◦ VoIP proven and continues significant growth
Mobility ◦ Mobile data demand growing 15-25x over next
three years ◦ Users have growing number of end-points
3 to 5 devices per person Smartphone, iPad, laptop, machine-to-machine
Cloud Services & Applications ◦ Shift to cloud computing drives demand for
Enterprise and SMB connectivity
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
New Devices and Applications
New Mobile Devices ◦ iPad, tablets, smart phones, etc..
New Applications ◦ Video, gaming, etc.. ◦ Cloud services ◦ Voice over Wi-Fi
Major Usage Changes ◦ Netflix is now 30% of Internet
traffic ◦ Over 50% of the 800M Facebook
users are active daily ◦ Over 350M users access
Facebook on their mobile device ◦ Two-way video chat
• Skype • Apple’s Facetime
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mobility Demand is Exploding
5B Mobile Phones Globally Smart phones are Pervasive True Mobility is no Longer a
Convenience ◦ Voice over Wi-Fi, Facetime
New Devices Rely on Wireless Connectivity ◦ iPads
Mobile Data Traffic is Growing Exponentially
Wi-Fi Data Offload to Fixed Network is Necessary
Source: FCC
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Cloud is the Future
IDC estimates the market for public cloud products and services will grow to $56 billion by 2014
Amazon’s S3 Cloud Storage Service skyrocketed from 262 billion in 2010 to over 566 billion in 2011 ◦ Over 370,000 requests per
second Small business public cloud
computing spending is estimated to reach $6 billion by 2014 ◦ (Source: In-Stat - December 2010)
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Areas of Focus
Broadband Solutions ◦ Fiber-to-the-Home, Ultra Broadband
Mobile Infrastructure ◦ Fixed access from exchange to cell tower ◦ Optical access, Carrier Ethernet access,
Broadband access Cloud Connectivity
◦ Enterprise converged access ◦ Hosted service provider solutions ◦ Carrier Ethernet, broadband connectivity ◦ Virtualization enables unlimited scalability
Broadband
Cloud
Mobility
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It’s a video-centric world
In 2015, the Exabyte equivalent of all movies ever made
will cross the global IP network every five minutes.
Source: Cisco VNI Report 2011
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Operators’ Competitive Landscape
100Mbps is the next speed milestone – numerous national goals
DOCSIS 3.0 means 100Mbps over cable is here today FTTH overbuild still requires significant capital and
installation expense (and time) FTTH is challenging in some installation situations – the
customer cannot be connected profitably
Providers need a way to serve those customers with fiber services but with
reduced cost and installation time
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Internet data traffic growth
Video
File Sharing
Video traffic is growing faster than
all other data sources
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Mobile Data Traffic is growing fast!
Mobile Data is nearly doubling every year
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Mobile Data Breakdown
Mobile Video
Mobile video is growing faster than all other mobile data sources
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mobile data offload is real
Mobile traffic offload onto Wi-Fi is growing which is going to impact broadband networks
Growing % of mobile data offload
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Multiple Drivers for Edge Transformation All Segments Services are Scaling
Business Services
Metro Ethernet Services
100Mbps – 10Gbps
Mobile
Backhaul 4G/LTE Backhaul
Ethernet over Fiber
Residential Broadband
FCC Mandate for 100Mbps per Home
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Residential Broadband: History and Trends
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
bps
Speed
Usage
Peak Speed1 Gbps
AvePeak Usage:1 - 5 Mbps
Headed Toward 1 Gbps
But Usage only 1-5 Mbps (0.1 - 0.5 %)
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Access Network Traffic Projections
Internet traffic data ◦ Cisco VNI, Procera,
Sandvine, other sources ◦ Reported as aggregate
totals (e.g., Petabytes per month per region)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Cisco Procera Sandvine
Traf
fic (k
bps)
Web/email/data File sharing Gaming Video/VoIP Internet video Other
314 kbps287 kbps
172 kbps
236 kbps (service provider data)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Dow
nstr
eam
traf
fic (k
bps)
Internet video Web, email, data File sharing Gaming Video/VoIP
Per-subscriber traffic – Upstream and downstream
Busy Hour traffic (BHOL) – Enables sizing of access
networks
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0.10.20.40.81.63.16.3
12.525.050.0
100.0200.0400.0800.0
1,600.0
1 Mbps 5 Mbps 10 Mbps 20 Mbps
Me
gab
its
pe
r se
con
d
FTTN-VDSL2 10G DOCSIS 3.0 -8ch DOCSIS 3.0 - 24ch
Ethernet FTTH FTTH- GPON
Realized Speeds from Broadband Access
Both GPON and Ethernet FTTH can provide 1 Gbps speeds ◦ Good for 10+ years
DOCSIS performance drops as load increases above projection
FTTN-VDSL2 has plenty of capacity, but is limited by peak speed ◦ Need to address top
speed limit
Realized Speed
Load per subscriber
2020 Projection
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Raising the bar with FTTH
CO ADSL Basic (up to 24Mbps) Basic service for Brownfield Low Cost
FTTN Fast (10-40Mbps) Good Premium Brownfield Mid Cost in Brownfield
FTTC Very Fast (40Mbps-80Mbps) Good For Premium Brownfield Mid Cost in Brownfield $$$
$$
$
GbE
GbE
ADSL2+
DP
DP
DP
X-connect
X-connect
DSLAM
Pwr
Pwr
Smaller, closer, bonding, vectoring
FTTH Extremely Fast (100Mbps-10Gbps+) Ideal for Greenfield $$$$
GPON, NGPON, Active Ethernet
Opt. splitter
Ban
dwid
th
Ultra Broadband Ultra Fast (50Mbps to 100Mbps+) Ideal for Brownfield
GbE
$$
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Fiber Network Architectures
Passive Optical Network (PON) eliminates powered electrical devices between the optical source and destination
Active Optical Network (AON) (i.e., Active Ethernet) uses powered electrical devices with direct connection to customers
2.4Gbps shared downstream 1.2Gbps shared downstream Typical: 1 fiber/32 subscribers Less fiber required, less $
1 Gbps per subscriber upstream and downstream More fiber required, more $ Potentially better long term investment
AOE Management
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Central Office
PON: Evolution
ONT
ONT
Splitter
ONT
ONT
Splitter
More subs per fiber
Smaller & cheaper Outdoor -> Indoor Multi-purpose (wifi …) Certification / Interop
WDM 40-100G
OLT
Higher Density More links per card/system
FASTER !!! 1G-> 10G XGPON1, 10GEPON
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Need to think about the next bandwidth bottleneck
Enterprise
SMB
3G/4G Mobile Backhaul
Residential
GPON, GbE, AE, 10G
Packet Optical 40G, 100G and beyond
BW is exploding here This is the next bandwidth bottleneck
Aggregation
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WDM, OADMs & ROADMs
2.5 – 100Gbps
• WDM: carry multiple signals on same fiber
• OADM: add/drop λ – fixed configuration
• ROADM: add/drop λ– remotely configurable
ROADM OADM • Manual config change • Low $
Coarse WDM (8 λ) Dense WDM (40 λ)
Trends: Migrating from metro core to edge, 2-3 degrees, ROADM on a card, colorless …
OA
DM
ROADM • Dynamic & Flexible • Popular but $$$ (dropping)
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Converging Service Delivery & Transport
Access Aggregation
1GE
10GE, Wavelength
Fiber
or Copper
Enterprise
SMB
3G/4G Mobile Backhaul
Residential
Virtually Unlimited BW
Deploy packet optical technology at the edge of the network: “unlimited” bandwidth & new λ services
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Dealing with the BW Explosion
FTTH Ultra Fast (100Mbps-1Gbps+) Ideal for Greenfield Costly in some Brownfield
GPON Active Ethernet Opt. splitter B
andw
idth
XGPON, 10GEPON, WDM PON Faster (10Gbps+) Long Reach More customers per fiber
Opt. splitter (up to 256)
XGPON, 10GEPON WDM PON
Packet Optical at the Edge
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Access Evolution
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Access Evolution
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Traditional IP DSLAM
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FTTN to Residential and Businesses
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FTTN – Bonding and Vectoring gains
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FTTN – Bonding and Vectoring gains
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Vectoring
Helps manage crosstalk in binder groups to increase bandwidth
Works best on short loops
A system level approach is key
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Understanding Pairs and Binders
Typical 25-pair binder
Copper pair
100 Pair Cable (4 x 25 Pair Binders)
400 Pair Cable (4 x 100 Pair Cables)
Individual copper pairs are grouped in binders which are sometimes grouped together to form 100 pair and even 400 pair cables.
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Typical 25-pair binder
Copper pair
100 Pair Cable (4 x 25 Pair Binders)
400 Pair Cable (4 x 100 Pair Cables)
Pairs in the same binder are close enough to each other to cause cross-talk noise and distort neighboring signals
Understanding Pairs and Binders
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Fiber to the Home
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100 Mbps over Copper Pairs to MDU
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FTTB and G.fast - 1 Gbps to MDU
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Ethernet Services To Businesses
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Small Cell and Mobile Data Offload
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Access Evolution
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Optical
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Packet Optical Market Dynamic
Edge-Optimized Innovators
New Market
Entrants
First Movers
• Dynamic, Flexible networking applications
• Focused on Metro, Edge and Access network
• Right-sized, Rural U.S. focused platform
• Ethernet services component
• High Capacity, Static transport applications
• Focused on Core and Metro network
• Mid-sized, cost-effective platforms
• Added Ethernet services component
• High Capacity, Static transport applications
• Focused on Long Haul and Core network
• Large, high density platforms • Limited or non-existence
service delivery
Core/Long-haul Metro Edge/Access
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What makes a solution ‘Packet Optical’?
WDM/ROADM
OTN
Carrier Ethernet
SONET/SDH Typical Packet
Optical
Traditional Packet Optical solutions focused on Long Haul and Core Applications
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Traditional Packet Optical Solutions
7 ft
Designed for Traditional Applications
• Long Haul/Core transport • Optimized for high port and
wavelength counts • Very high throughput • Dedicated NMS & OSS
integration • High start-up cost & complexity
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Right Sized Packet Optical Solution
• Cost effective at low port counts • Edge optimized performance • Shared NMS/OSS with existing
access system • Low start-up cost and simple to
operate • Converged access & transport
• Long Haul/Core transport • Optimized for high port and
wavelength counts • Very high throughput • Dedicated NMS & OSS
integration • High start-up cost & complexity
7 ft
1 ½ ft
©2013 ADTRAN, Inc. All rights reserved.
Thank You!
Kevin Morgan, Director – Marketing
[email protected] Mobile: 256.694.3552