advanced manufacturing innovation center (amic) · impact of the 4th industrial revolution- big...
TRANSCRIPT
“This study was prepared under contract with the St. Louis Economic Development Partnership, Missouri, with financial support from the Office of Economic Adjustment, Department of Defense. The content reflects to views of the St. Louis Economic Development Partnership and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Office of Economic Adjustment.”
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING INNOVATION CENTER (AMIC)
November 16 2017
DRAFT
2
DRAFT
AGENDA
Project Initiation: Introduction & Economic Context
Interviews and Visioning
Site Selection
Space and Functional Programming
Conceptual Design
Cost Estimate
01
02
03
04
05
06
3
DRAFT
THE CRITICAL PATH AMIC QUESTIONS
What does industry need?
At what do the regions industries excel?
Who is the Champion?
What manufacturing innovation model do we pursue?
Who are other public, workforce, and higher education partners?
Where does consequential funding come from?
What about all that expensive fabrication equipment?
Does “place” matter?
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
4
DRAFT
“Building new markets is slow, hard work. You don’t just wake up one morning and say....
... I think I’ll take the Chinese market today.”
Philip Hammond British Chancellor of the Exchequer
5
DRAFT
....”You build. You build your product’s presence, your business, your networks, your distribution capability, confidence in your brand.”
It all takes time
6
DRAFT
01 ECONOMIC INTRODUCTION
7
DRAFT
MFG MARKETS ARE IN TRANSITION
US Manufacturing is recovering Growing Robustly, but very different from what it was 10 years ago ٠ 2.5% growth in output/ 1.1% growth in jobs
Impact of the 4th Industrial Revolution- big data, advanced materials, additive manufacturing
Food manufacturing and water
Impact of recent environmental regulation enforcement in China
There is no level playing field for global manufacturing
US manufacturing workforce policy is pivoting, but how to replace retiring workers remains the big question
01
02
03
04
05
06
8
DRAFT
1997
$3.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
$5.5
$6.0
$6.5
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
OUT
PUT
($ T
rillio
ns)
EMPL
OYM
ENT
Manufacturing Output Pre-Recession
Manufacturing Output Post-Recession
Manufacturing Employment Pre-Recession
Manufacturing Employment Post-Recession
$6.5 18
Manufacturing Output Pre-Recession
Manufacturing Output Post-Recession
Manufacturing Employment Pre-Recession
Manufacturing Employment Post-Recession
NATIONAL MANUFACTURING OUTPUT VS. EMPLOYMENT
Policy implications of divergence between output and employment in manufacturing
01
9
DRAFT
1.2%
1.6%
1.8%
2.9%
2.9%
3.8%
4.1%
4.4%
8.9%1.6%
PLASTICS MFG.
CHEMICALS MFG.
-2.0
%
TEXTILES MFG.
1.0%
METALS MFG.
0.7%
MACHINERY MFG.
1.3%
FOOD MFG.
WOOD MFG.
COMPUTER MFG.
ELECTRICAL MFG.
MISCELLANEOUS MFG.
-0.3
%0.
3%
MINERALS MFG.
2.0%
TRANSPORTATION MFG.
8.9%
4.5%
4.4%
4.4%
4.1%
3.8%
2.9%
2.9%
1.8%
1.6%
1.2%
0.2%
-0.7
%
-1.1
%
0.3%
0.2%
,670
2016
,293
2015
,537
2014
,922
2013
,945
2012
,497
2011
,496
2010
EmploymentOutput
NATIONAL MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT & OUTPUT CAGR (2010-2016)
Food and Beverage MFG has been the most consistently growing sector, but growth in output per worker is modest
01
Transportation MFG has grown strongly, but change is in the air02
10
DRAFT
1.1%
1.9%
US
St. Louis MSA
Manufacturing Employment CAGR (2010-2016)
Source: BLS QCEW
1.5%
1.1%
ST. LOUIS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT CAGR (2010-2016)
For St. Louis, manufacturing growth post recession has been impressive, faster than US average
01
Aerospace and automotive have led the way 02
11
DRAFT
12 13
95%
100%
105%
$0
$1,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
F/A-18, EA-18, C-17, AS OF MAY 2017; EXCLUDES FOREIGN MINISTRY SALES
12 13
5%
0%
5%
$0
$1,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
14 15 16 17 18 19 20Aircraft Purchases
Modifications of In-Service Aircraft
RDT & E
US NAVY/ USAF AIRCRAFT PROCUREMENT
Department of Defense Funding for F/A-18 has improved since we last talked ٠$4.8 billion more new builds budgeted FY 15-18 + $650 million less in airframe mods
01
Buys the region some time; F-15 and F/A-18 will eventually go away
02
12
DRAFT
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1180%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
Decrease from 1989 Peak
Decrease from 2012 Peak
CHANGE IN DEFENSE OUTLAY FROM PEAK YEAR1989 AND 2012
While DoD funding is beginning to improve toward 2012 threshold, the pace of recovering remains behind the 1989 trajectory
01
Defense contractors remain under pressure 02
13
DRAFT
31%OF TOTAL REGIONAL
OUTPUT IS MANUFACTURING & LIFE
SCIENCES
OUTPUT PER WORKER IS 3XALL JOBS
MANUFACTURING
$640,000
ALL WORKERS
$178,000
OUTPUT PER WORKERSOURCE: IMPLAN
$306BILLION
TOTAL OUTPUT FOR
ST. LOUIS
14
DRAFT
METALS MFG 36%
FOOD MFG 18%
OTHER 18%
LIFE SCIENCES SERVICES 28%
$96 BILLION
LIFE SCIENCES MFG (4%)
Metal Fabrication, including aerospace, automotive, and associated tooling is highly concentrated in St. Louis
01
Metal Fabrication is the single largest regional cluster in terms of output, larger than the plant and life sciences....
02
15
DRAFT
STL PLANT AND LIFE SCIENCES ECOSYSTEM
The region has spent 20 years investing in plant and life sciences and tech, and is now reaping the rewards for a focused strategy....
In comparison, manufacturing is highly fragmented...
16
DRAFT
FUNDERS
PARTNER COMPANIES
FACILITIES
COM-MUNITY
CIVIC
Emerson
Boeing
General Motors
Anheuser-Busch InBev
Monsanto Co.
Mallinckrodt
Nestle Purina PetCare Co.
US Steel
Sigma-Aldrich (MilliporeSigma)
Gilster-Mary Lee Corp.
WestRock
Graybar Electric Company Inc.
True Manufacturing Company Inc.
DRS Sustainment
Olin Brass
Zoltek Companies Inc.
HBM Holdings
GKN Aerospace North America
Brick City Makes
Manufacturing Inc. @ Ranken
STL Venture Works
Cortex St. Louis
Tech Shop
Missouri S&T - Center for Aerspace
Manufacturing
SLU Boeing Supply Chain
Center
Yield Lab
Ameren Missouri
World Trade Center
Midwest Manufacturing Leaders Group
St. Louis Makes
Metropolitan Manufacturers'
Association
Missouri Association of Manufacturers
St Louis Economic
Development Partnership
Missouri Technology Corporation
Regional Business Council
St Louis Freightway
St. Louis Regional Chamber
Bi-State Developoment
Agency
BioSTl
St. Louis Development Corporation
US Small Business Adminstration
Missouri Enterprise
St Clair County
Economic Development
Regional Business Council
TALENT & TRAINING Ranken Technical
Institute
Wash U-Institute of Materials Science
& Engineering
SLU
SIUE
SLATE
Lewis & Clark Community
College
Wash U-Aero-space Research
& Education Center
Southwest Illinois
College
St. Louis Community
College
Vatterott Educational
Centers
REGIONAL MANUFACTURING ECOSYSTEM MAP TODAY
17
DRAFT
FUNDERS
PARTNER COMPANIES
AMIC
FACILITIES
COM-MUNITY
CIVIC
Emerson
Boeing
General Motors
Anheuser-Busch InBev
Monsanto Co.
Mallinckrodt
Nestle Purina PetCare Co.
US Steel
Sigma-Aldrich (MilliporeSigma)
Gilster-Mary Lee Corp.
WestRock
Graybar Electric Company Inc.
True Manufacturing Company Inc.
DRS Sustainment
Olin Brass
Zoltek Companies Inc.
HBM Holdings
GKN Aerospace North America
Brick City Makes
Manufacturing Inc. @ Ranken
STL Venture Works
Cortex St. Louis
Tech Shop
Missouri S&T - Center for Aerspace
Manufacturing
SLU Boeing Supply Chain
Center
Yield Lab
Ameren Missouri
World Trade Center
Midwest Manufacturing Leaders Group
St. Louis Makes
Metropolitan Manufacturers'
Association
Missouri Association of Manufacturers
St Louis Economic
Development Partnership
Missouri Technology Corporation
Regional Business Council
St Louis Freightway
St. Louis Regional Chamber
Bi-State Developoment
Agency
BioSTl
St. Louis Development Corporation
US Small Business Adminstration
Missouri Enterprise
St Clair County
Economic Development
Regional Business Council
TALENT & TRAINING Ranken Technical
Institute
Wash U-Institute of Materials Science
& Engineering
SLU
SIUE
SLATE
Lewis & Clark Community
College
Wash U-Aero-space Research
& Education Center
Southwest Illinois
College
St. Louis Community
College
Vatterott Educational
Centers
REGIONAL MANUFACTURING ECOSYSTEM MAP
18
DRAFT
MANUFACTURING GROWTH RATE
Metric 2010 2015 CAGR
Population
Employment
GDP
R & D Funding
5,988,927
2,658,400
$255,865,000,0000
$4,464,770,500
6,076,204
2,796,900
$292,718,000,000
$5,545,616,100
0.3%
1.0%
2.7%
4.4%
R&D funding in Missouri has increased faster than most economic metrics
01
Positive R&D trends in the State bode well for innovation in Missouri
02
GROWTH RATE COMPARISON: 2010-2015 MISSOURI
19
DRAFT
Transitioning innovations from a theoretical state to a practical application is challenging
01
A resource gap between research and development complicates this process further
02
NATIONAL R&D FUNDING BY INNOVATION PROCESS PHASEPRE-COMMERCIALIZATION: 2015
VALLEY OF DEATH
BASIC RESEARCH
APPLIEDRESEARCH
PRE-DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT
$66 Billion $84 Billion $14 Billion $360 Billion
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
BILL
ION
20
DRAFT
Despite positive trends in R&D funding post-Recession, Missouri still receives less R&D funding per capita than the US
01
Universities in Missouri find R&D at a per capita rate comparable to the US average
02
All other major sources of R&D funding lag behind US per capita funding rates
03
PER CAPITA R&D RATES $1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,100
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0 TOTAL PRIVATE FEDERAL VENTURE CAPITAL ACADEMIC
MO 2010 MO 2015 US 2010 US 2015
21
DRAFT
MISSOURI TOTAL R&D FUNDING AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
Net gap of about $4.5 billion in R&D statewide01
2015
$6.0
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.0
$0.0 PRIVATE FEDERAL VENTURE CAPITAL ACADEMIC
$5.0
BILL
ION
22
DRAFT
CHALLENGES TO MANUFACTURING (BIG DATA)
BUSINESS CHALLENGES Finding and penetrating new markets
01
TECHNOLOGY IMPLEMENTATIONIntegration of software and hardware, and premature obsolescence of new equipment
02
ADDITIVE MANUFACTURINGTremendous potential and significant technical challenges; lack of standards
03
23
DRAFT
CHALLENGES TO MANUFACTURING (BIG DATA)
CHANGES IN STANDARDS Adjust to new standards; ISO 9001:2015
04
CYBERCRIMEGrowing importance of data in manufacturing has security implications
05
SUPPLY CHAIN COORDINATIONImpact of technology on supply chains
06
24
DRAFT
3D PRINTING/ ADVANCED MATERIALS Customization and improvements in product quality
01
LOGISTICS Improved transportation links and efficient supply chains
02
ADDITIVE MANUFACTURINGCloud computing, Internet of Things, Big Data, and Analytics
03
ENABLERS TO MANUFACTURING (BIG DATA)
25
DRAFT
STANDARDS Industry standards, replicable processes and replaceable parts
04
INDUSTRIAL HARDWAREAdvanced sensors and semiconductors
05
DEMOGRAPHICS + INFRASTRUCTUREAging population, obsolete infrastructure, and urbanization
06
ENABLERS TO MANUFACTURING (BIG DATA)
26
DRAFT
02 INTERVIEWS & VISIONING
27
DRAFT
INTERVIEWS AND VISIONING
Case Studies and Innovation Facilities Manufacturers Universities and Workforce Intermediaries
01 02 03
Three Categories of Interviews:
In what sectors do St. Louis firms have a clear competitive edge? What challenges are local manufacturers facing?
Who is our champion?
01
02
03
Critical Path Questions:
28
DRAFT
INTERVIEWS- THE FUTURE OF ADVANCED MANUFACTURING
29
DRAFT
The industry is being transformed by additive technologies, specifically how parts and castings are made.
There is a movement away from prototyping and moving directly to production work.
This change in how manufacturers are interfacing with suppliers has unbelievably simplified the process, improved quality and shortened lead times.
Getting this additive technology in the hands of the region would be an immense help.
Training is essential for the next generation of workforce in the industry.
Small and midsized manufacturers may not know what they don’t know.
INTERVIEWS- THE FUTURE OF ADVANCED MANUFACTURING
30
DRAFT
EMERGING REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATORS
Impact and interest of our major manufacturing employers
Role of workforce intermediaries- Ranken Tech and Manufacturing Inc.
Emerging networks- St. Louis Makes/ Midwest Manufacturing Leaders/ SLU Supply Chain Center
Federal support and evolution of Manufacturing USA
Intangibles ٠BioStl ٠Wash U Aerospace Research & Education Center ٠Missouri S&T ٠Innovation Triangle: NGA/ Cortex/ Ranken
01
02
03
04
05
31
DRAFT
Track 01 Incubator Model
Track 02 Innovation/ Research Model
Manufacturing Incubator (ICNC)• Basic incubator • Manufacturers rent space• Business support services are
offered at the site, but the site does not engage in any research itself.
Manufacturing USA Model (LIFT)• Public-private partnership, non-profit organization• Hierarchy of membership• Research conducted by all members- only 1 type
Hybrid Model (CCAM)• Public-private partnership, private leader• Tiered membership system• 2 research types: generic and directed
Research Center Model (AMRC)• Private-university partnership• Tiered membership system• 3 research types: generic, directed, and innovative
CASE STUDIES
32
DRAFT
01
02
04
01 02 03 04 05
Advanced Manufacturing Research CenterCommonwealth Center for Advanced Manufacturing Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation Institute Lightweight Innovations for Tomorrow Oregon Manufacturing Innovation Center
03
05
CASE STUDIES
33
DRAFT
01Advanced Manufacturing Research Center (AMRC)
02Commonwealth Center for Advanced Manufacturing (CCAM)
03Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation Institute (DMDII)
04Lightweight Innovations for Tomorrow (LIFT)
05Oregon Manufacturing Innovation Center (OMIC)
CASE STUDIES
34
DRAFT
Advanced Materials Research Center(AMRC)
Sheffield, England
Commonwealth Center for Advanced Manufacturing (CCAM)
Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation Institute(DMDII)
Lightweight Innovations for Tomorrow (LIFT)
Oregon Manufacturing Innovation Center(OMIC)
Disputanta, Virginia Chicago, Illinois Detroit, Michigan Scappoose, Oregon
$9.3 million $17.6 million $31 million $58 million $4.2 million
48,000 sf 62,000 sf 94,000 sf 100,000 sf 33,800 sf
Location
Project Costs
Building Gross Area
Public/ Private Funding
100%/ 0% 28%/ 72% 100%/ 0% 50%/ 50% 50%/ 50%
University Partners
University of Sheffield
Old Dominion University University of VirginiaVirginia Commonwealth University Virginia State University Virginia Tech
Iowa State UniversityNorthwestern UniversityUniversity of Illinois-ChiUniversity of Illinois-UrbUniversity of Michigan
University of Michigan EWI Worldwide Ohio State University
Oregon Tech Institute Oregon State University Portland State University
Corporate Partners
Boeing Rolls-Royce
Rolls-Royce Siemens Canon
Dow General ElectricRolls-Royce
Boeing General Electric Alcoa
Boeing
Research Focus
High performance machining, milling, and composites
Manufacturing sys-tems, surface engi-neering, and coatings
Systems engineering, future factory, product development, and digital design
Melt processing, powder processing, thermo-mechanical processing, novel/ agile processing
Additive processes, hard metal manufacturing, automation and optimization, large integrated structures
CASE STUDIES
35
DRAFT
EQUIPMENT
36
DRAFT
03 LOCATION FRAMEWORK
37
DRAFT
LOCATION FRAMEWORK
Use Case Studies to identify salient factors that influence Innovation Center location decision Identify St. Louis neighborhoods with characteristics that align with Case Study insights
01
02
Intent:
Align workforce and higher education participation
Allow for future expansion & manufacturing preservation
Create deliberate serendipity/ place matters
01
02
03
Insight: The private sector needs to contemplate locations that:
38
DRAFT
SITE CRITERIA -DETERMINED BY CASE STUDY RESEARCH
• Affordable and available building/land
• Site that can accommodate an existing or new 40,000- 60,000 sf building and parking
• Adjacent to land or buildings that can be re-purposed for growth
• Zoned for industrial/ manufacturing and can be zoned as an innovation district
• Site can be accessed easily by semi-trailer
• Local government support/ access to financial resources
• Physical proximity to partner companies
• Physical proximity to workforce training/ education
• Physical proximity to urban core/ transit
39
DRAFT
LOCATION CATEGORIES
Infill
Redevelopment
Academic/ Workforce
Industrial/ Aerospace
01
02
03
04
40
DRAFT
LOCATION CATEGORIES | INFILL
39N Monsanto
CORTEX FOX PARKBrick City Makes
41
DRAFT
LOCATION CATEGORIES | REDEVELOPMENT
ST LOUIS PLACERanken
ST LOUIS PLACE WELLSTONNGA
42
DRAFT
LOCATION CATEGORIES | ACADEMIC + WORKFORCE
FLORISSANT VALLEYSt. Louis Community
College
EAST ST LOUIS GRAND CENTERSt. Louis UniversityEast St Louis
Community College
43
DRAFT
LOCATION CATEGORIES | ACADEMIC + WORKFORCE
GRAND CENTER CLAYTONWashington UniversitySLEDP Grand
44
DRAFT
LOCATION CATEGORIES | INDUSTRIAL + AEROSPACE
EAST ST LOUIS East St. Louis Airport
WENTZVILLE AIRPORT NORTHBoeing GM
45
DRAFT
04 SPACE & FUNCTIONAL PROGRAM
46
DRAFT
SPACE & FUNCTIONAL PROGRAM
Use Case Studies to identify main program areas essential to the function needs of the Innovation CenterDevelop final space and functional program needs based on local building code and zoning requirements
01
02
Intent:
High Bay Space- joint use manufacturing equipment
Specialty Labs- specific company owned equipment for testing and research
Workplace- collaborative working, teaming, and meeting spaces
01
02
03
Three Main Program Areas:
47
DRAFT
PROPOSED AMIC PROGRAM
Open Workstations Conference/ Teaming Support Circulation/ Lobby
5,000 sf 5,000 sf 5,000 sf 5,000 sf
TOTAL 45,000 sf
High Bay SpaceSpecialty Labs
20,000 sf 5,000 sf
WORKPLACE
High Bay Space
Spec. Labs Workstations Teaming Support Lobby/ Circ
Workplace
48
DRAFT
05 CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
49
DRAFT
CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
Generate preliminary massing and layout based on various Case Study models Develop a conceptual design responding to the specific space and functional program identified for the facility
Convey a new aesthetic to represent how innovation and emerging technology are transforming the advanced
01
02
03
Intent:
Site Plan
Exterior Perspective
Lobby View
High Bay View
01
02
03
04
Conceptual Design:
50
DRAFT
SITE PLAN
0
5
5
15
30
60
PLAZA/ ENTRY
MAIN ENTRY SERVICE ENTRY
SERVICE DOCKS
GAS/ WASTE/ LIQUIDS STORAGE
0
5
5
15
30
60
PLAZA/ ENTRY
MAIN ENTRY SERVICE ENTRY
SERVICE DOCKS
GAS/ WASTE/ LIQUIDS STORAGE
51
DRAFT
FLOOR PLAN
0
5
5
15
30
60
HIGH BAY SPACE
WORKSPACE
LOBBY/ COLLABORATION
TRAINING ROOM
SPECIALTY LAB
SPECIALTY LAB
SPECIALTY LAB
SPECIALTY LAB
STORAGE
ELECFIRE
PUMP
0
5
5
15
30
60
PLAZA/ ENTRY
MAIN ENTRY SERVICE ENTRY
SERVICE DOCKS
GAS/ WASTE/ LIQUIDS STORAGE
52
DRAFT
EXTERIOR PERSPECTIVE
MATERIAL STUDIES
53
DRAFT
LOBBY/ COLLABORATION
54
DRAFT
HIGH BAY SPACE
55
DRAFT
06 CONCEPTUAL COST
56
DRAFT
POLICY 1. Focus on metals and additive MFG
2. Focus on “pre competitive research”
PARTNERS 1. A private sector champion and several partners
2. One or more universities
3. One or more workforce intermediaries
PHASE I FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK 1. Staffing 10 to 20 people
2. Labor budget: $750k to $1.5 million
3. Total operating budget: $1.5 million to $3 million
4. Capital costs: $12-16 million (building and site)
5. Operating equipment: $5 million
57
DRAFT
QUESTIONS