advancing public relations measurement public relations measurement september 19, 2012 david geddes,...

© Geddes Analytics™ 2012. Not for distribution without permission.

Advancing Public

Relations Measurement September 19, 2012

David Geddes, Ph.D.

Managing Director

Geddes Analytics LLC

Chair, Institute for PR

Measurement Commission

2

Agenda

Part I: PR measurement today

▫ Standards

▫ A standard framework

Part II: PR measurement tomorrow

▫ Predictive analytics

▫ Building organizational value

© Geddes Analytics. Not for distribution without permission.

3

1 Begin with theory


4


Message

sender

Send

Originate

Encode

Transmission medium

or channel

1

2

3

Message

recipient

Receive

Understand

Decode

3

2

1

Noise

N N

N

5

2 Translate to practice


Activities

Outputs

Reception

Outtakes or

PR outcomes

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Send

Originate

Encode

Transmission

channel

Receive

Understand

Decode

Recip

ient

Sender

Act Business results

7

Activities

• What did you do?

• Control by PR

• Visible

• Operational efficiency

▫ Staff time

▫ Budget

• Use: PR group, CFO


Outputs

Reception

Outtakes

Comms results

Activities

Business results

8

Outputs

• Message availability

to target audiences

▫ Media analytics

▫ Social media analytics

▫ Other (events, etc.)

• Correlate with activities

• Use: Within PR group


Reception

Outtakes

Comms results

Activities

Business results

Outputs

9

Reception

• Handle PR outputs

• Manipulate outputs

• Involvement with

outputs

• Correlate with

activities

• Is this engagement?

• Use: Within PR group


Outputs

Outtakes

Comms results

Activities

Business results

Reception

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Outtakes

• Cognitive change

▫ Awareness

▫ Understanding

▫ Perceptions

▫ Advocacy

• Use: CMO, marketing

and communications

executives


Outputs

Reception

Comms results

Activities

Business results

Outtakes

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Communications

results

• Specific, desired

behaviors

• Precursor to business

value

• Link to outcomes, etc.

• Use: CMO, marketing

and communications

executives


Outputs

Reception

Outtakes

Activities

Business results

Comms results

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Business results

• Tactical, consumer results

• Strategic business results

• ROI

• Statistical methods

• Use: CEO, CMO, business

unit leaders


Outputs

Reception

Outtakes

Activities

Business results

Comms results

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3 Influence and

engagement


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Engagement 1

• Where does it fit?

▫ Reception

▫ Handling

• What is it?

▫ Precursor to cognitive

change

▫ Upstream


Outputs

Reception

Outtakes

Comms results

Activities

Business results

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Engagement 2


▫ Relevance

▫ Relationships

▫ Advocacy

• What is it?

▫ Result of cognition

▫ Downstream

▫ Precursor to results


Outputs

Reception

Outtakes

Comms results

Activities

Business results

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Influence 1


▫ Reception

▫ Information availability

• What is it?

▫ Precursor to cognitive

change

▫ Upstream


Outputs

Reception

Outtakes

Comms results

Activities

Business results

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Influence 2


▫ Outtake

• What is it?

▫ Result of cognition

▫ A new way of thinking

▫ Downstream

▫ Precursor to results


Outputs

Reception

Outtakes

Comms results

Activities

Business results


Predictive analytics

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The situation today

• Companies monitor traditional and social

media…

▫ But don’t know what media messages

actually change opinions and drives

behaviors


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The situation today

• Companies probe the marketplace via

surveys and media listening platforms,

but …

▫ Cannot look ahead

▫ Risk getting blindsided


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The situation today

• Monthly measurement reports give a look

backwards, but …

▫ Cannot evaluate possible scenarios


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Today’s challenge

Passive monitoring

Passive listening

Active communications

intelligence

Competitive advantage


▫ Analyze past data

▫ Understand what really drives change

▫ Link social / traditional media to business

outcomes

▫ Build systems to give a look ahead

▫ Facilitates responsive management

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Case studies

Toyota recall crisis

Consumer sentiment about the economy

Teenage smoking behavior


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1. Toyota recall crisis

• Key questions

1. What shapes opinion about the Toyota brand?

2. Can we predict brand reputation from media?

• Data

▫ Predictor variables

News, online, blogs, forums … no broadcast

▫ Dependent variable

Brand reputation


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All media

R2 = 0.84

Survey

− Model

Positive documents

Negative documents

Positive opinion

Neutral opinion

Negative opinion

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2. Consumer economic sentiment

• Key questions

1. What shapes consumer opinions about the economy:

media or marketplace experience?

2. Can we predict consumer sentiment from media alone?

• Data

▫ Predictor variables:

AP wire and Washington Post

▫ Dependent variable:

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

▫ 1977 to 2007


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Key results

▫ We can predict based

on media alone

▫ Models based work

over long time period

▫ Media play primary

role in shaping

opinion about their

economic well-being

▫ Shelf life of

information near zero

Training data

Test data

Training and test data

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3. Teenage smoking

Key questions

• Can we predict teenage

smoking behavior from

media alone?

• Does public policy affect

smoking behaviors?

• Do anti-smoking

campaigns work?

Data

• Predictor variables:

▫ Newspapers, Google

newsgroups

▫ 10 messages

▫ Cost per pack

• Dependent variable:

▫ Monitoring the Future

nationwide surveys

(http://monitoringthefutur

e.org/)

• 1991 to 2002


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Key results

▫ We can predict

behaviors based on

media alone

▫ Cost improves prediction

▫ Attitude that cigarettes

are hard to get improves

prediction

▫ Anti-smoking campaigns

and policy changes work

− Predicted smoking ☐ Reported smoking

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The InfoTrend™ Model


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Powerful yet simple: basic structure

Neutral Positive Negative

K3 K4

K2 K1

Negative message force

Positive message force

Step I


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Minimal ideodynamic model


Do not try

this at home

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Data requirements

Predictor variables

• Multi-channel

• Sentiment scores

• Messages tagged

Outcome variables

• Survey data

• Behavioral data

• Business data

• Must show change


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Concluding remarks


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What have we learned?

•Media Outcomes

▫ Sentiment

▫ Messages

•But … random variability

▫ What does this mean for

communications>


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Prediction and forecasting

© New York Times

• Early enough to take action

• Probable vs. improbable

• Scenario planning and

simulation

• Strategic responsiveness


• Michael Raynor. 2007. The Strategy Paradox: Why Committing to Success Leads to

Failure. New York: Doubleday.

advancing public relations measurement public relations measurement september 19, 2012 david geddes,...

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