advantage answers environment warming samford 2012

8/14/2019 Advantage Answers Environment Warming Samford 2012

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SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 1

Advantage Answers Warming/Environment

Advantage Answers Warming/Environment.......................................................................................................1War turns environment........................................................................................................................................... 2*Air Pollution........................................................................................................................................................... *Ama!on.................................................................................................................................................................."*#ees........................................................................................................................................................................ $*#iodiversit%............................................................................................................................................................&*'oral....................................................................................................................................................................... (*Dead )ones........................................................................................................................................................... 1*+ono,ulture.......................................................................................................................................................... 11*-,eans..................................................................................................................................................................12*-il Deenden,%....................................................................................................................................................1*-il So,0s............................................................................................................................................................. 1"*-!one.................................................................................................................................................................... 1$*-%gen.................................................................................................................................................................. 1&*Pesti,ides Endo,rine disrutors3........................................................................................................................14*Pollution............................................................................................................................................................... 2*P%tolan0ton......................................................................................................................................................22

*****Warming 5rontline.......................................................................................................................................2"Et 61 ,ant solve innovation saring................................................................................................................2$Et 62 no one will model....................................................................................................................................2&Et 6 Warming is natural ,%,le........................................................................................................................2(Et 6" 7oo 8ar gone............................................................................................................................................


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War turns environment

War destroys the environmentMcNEELY 2002 9e88re%: 'ie8 S,ientist at IU';: 'onserving te Pea,e: www.iisd.org/d8/22/envse,or indire,t: 8or eamle troug tea,tivities o8 re8ugees. Sometimes tese ima,ts ,an =e deli=erate: and a new word as =een added to temilitar% vo,a=ular%? @e,o,ide: te destru,tion o8 te environment 8or militar% uroses ,learl% deriving 8romte @s,or,ed eart aroa,o8 earlier times. Westing 1(&$3 divides deli=erate environmental maniulations during wartime into two=road ,ategories? tose involving massive and etended ali,ations o8 disrutive te,niBuesto den% to te enem% an%a=itats tat rodu,e 8ood: re8uge: ,over: training grounds and staging areas 8or atta,0sC and tose involvingrelativel% small disrutive a,tionstat in turn release large amounts o8 @dangerous 8or,es or =e,ome sel8generating. An eamle o8 te latter is te release o8 eoti, mi,roorganisms or sreading o8 landmines o8 wi,over 1 million now litter a,tive and 8ormer war !ones around te world>Strada: 1(($3.

Nuclear war destroys the environmentNIANI !""2+oti: Pro8essor at Wa%ne State: ives in te #alan,e? 7e 'old War and Ameri,an Politi,s 1("F1((1:tt?//www.is.wa%ne.edu/mnissani/ageu=/'G2.tml37ere will =e 8ewer eole and less industrial and ,ommer,ial a,tivit% long a8ter te war: en,e some serious environmental treats will =e ameliorated.#% 0illing =illions and destro%ing industrial in8rastru,tures: nu,lear war migt: 8or instan,e: alt or slow down te suse,ted trend o8 glo=al warming.

-n =alan,e: owever: tewarHs overall environmental ima,t willalmost ,ertainl%=e on te negative side. adioa,tive8allout will ,ontaminate soils and waters . We sall ro=a=l% learn to adJust to tese new ,onditions: eras =% sunning ,ertain regionsor =% ,arr%ing radioa,tivit% meters ever%were we go te wa% our an,estors ,arried sears. Still: tis will lower te Bualit% o8 uman li8e. ;u,learelosions migt ,reate immense Buantities o8 dust and smo0e. 7e dust and smo0e migt =lan0et: dar0en:and ,ool te entire lanet. Altoug te etent o8 te damage is un,lear:2" it would =e 8ar more severe duringte growing seasonlate sring and summer in te nortern latitudes. -ne 'assandran and ,ontroversial redi,tion sounds a =it li0e te eerietwiligt des,ri=ed in G. K. WellsH The Time Machine. 7is Lnu,lear winterL roJe,tion 8ore,asts 8ree!ing summertimetemeratures:2F temorar% ,limati, ,anges e.g.: violent storms: dramati, redu,tions in rain8all3: lowere88i,ien,ies o8 lant otos%ntesis: disrution o8 e,os%stems and 8arms: loss o8 man% se,ies: and te deat o8millions o8 eole 8rom starvation and ,old.Gowever: even tese essimists ee,t a return to normal ,limati, ,onditions witin a 8ew%ears.2$a:2&
http://www.is.wayne.edu/mnissani/pagepub/CH2.htmlhttp://www.is.wayne.edu/mnissani/pagepub/CH2.html


3/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment

#Air $ollution

Alt causes $a%istan

Clean Air Initiatives Last date cited 2006@Pa0istans air ollution levels on te rise tt?//www.,leanairnet.org/,aiasia/1"12/arti,le&1"2.tmla,,essed $/2(/(3 S'

Air pollution levels in Pakistans highly populated cities are among the highest in the world.And the levels are on the rise,raising healthconcerns, says a Pakistan government report.The levels of ambient particulates, smoke particulates and dust, which cause respiratory diseases, aretwice the worlds average and more than five times as high as that in industrialised and Latin American countries, says the Economic urveyof Pakistan !""#$!""%, released in &une. The survey found that pollution levels in Pakistans cities had either crossed safe limits or reached the threshold value, with the presence of suspended

particulate matter 'spm( in the ambient air being very high. The report says the ma)or sources of spm in the country are vehicles, industry, burning of

solid waste, brick kilns and natural dust.*rowing energy demand, increasing industrial and domestic demand and a fast growing transport sector contribute to the pollution. +ncities, widespread use of low uality fuel, combined with a dramatic e-pansion in the number of vehicles on roads, is a ma)or contributor. The number of vehicles has )umped from ". million

to about /." million in !" years 0 an overall increase of over /"" per cent, the report says. ince 12", a ma-imum growth has been seen in two$stroke vehicles and a !"" to 3"" per cent

increase in diesel trucks and buses. uspended particles were primary pollutants with ground level o4one being a secondary pollutant, says 5ohammad Aib, coordinator of Pakistan 6lean Air

7etwork. 8arachi alone has 3#,""" registered and !#,""" unregistered two$stroke rickshaws plying on the roads. An estimated #"",""" rickshaws ply all over the country.

Even & air 'ollution is im'ossi(le to %ee' in chec% with unilateral action let alone theglo(al sco'e) $ollution (lows into our country *rom othersStricherz 4Min,e: s,ien,e autor 8rom te universit% o8 Wasingtons o88i,e o8 ;ews and In8ormation @Dirt% air 8rom Asia ,an us U.S. air ollution to unealt%levels Ntt?//news.=iomedi,ine.org/=iolog%news2/Dirt%air8romAsia,anusUSairollutiontounealt%levels2"441/O 5e=ruar% 1 a,,essed $/2(/(3 S'

+ncreasing evidence clearly documents that air pollution from Asia can get caught up in an e-press transport system and cross thePacific 9cean to the :est 6oast of 7orth America in a matter of days. 7oug su, events aen in8reBuentl%: when large pockets of Asian

pollution do make it across, the effects on air uality this side of the Pacific can be dramatic: said Daniel 9a88e: an environmental s,ien,e ro8essorat te Universit% o8 Wasington: #otell. The most pronounced effects can push the levels of atmospheric o4one and small particulates beyond

limits set by the ;.. Environmental Protection Agency, which raises health issues8or tose wit resirator% ro=lems: 9a88e said 5rida% during a resentation ate Ameri,an Asso,iation 8or te Advan,ement o8 S,ien, e meeting in Seattle. Wen arti,ulates get as small as 1 mi,rons: a=out onetent te widt o8 a uman air: te% are small enoug to asstroug te nose and into te resirator% s%stem. At 2.F mi,rons or smaller te% ,an =egin to ave noti,ea=le ealt e88e,ts: arti,ularl% 8or eole wit ,onditions su, as astma. L7is ,learl% as ealtimli,ations: =ut itHs a rare event:L 9a88e said. LGow rare we donHt 0now 8or sure: =ut 8rom te re,ord it loo0s li0e itHs someting on te order o8 tree o,,urren,es ever% 8ive %ears.L -ne su, eventaened last summer: wen ollution 8rom Si=erian 8orest 8ires ,rossed te Pa,i8i, and =oosted levels o8 atmoseri, o!one: an imortant summertime ollutant: at stations in Wasington state and#ritis 'olum=ia. 5rom +a% 2& troug 9une (: sur8a,e o!one levels e,eeded te longterm average 8or +a% and 9une. -n 9une $: Enum,law: Was.: a=out F miles souteast o8 Seattle: re,orded aneigtour average o8 ($ arts er =illion: well =e%ond te EPA limit o8 4 arts er =illion. 7e data: wi, as not %et =een u=lised: indi,ates tat te lume 8rom te Si=erian 8ires ,ontri=uted a=out1F arts er =illion to tat reading. Anoter o,,urren, e ,ame in Aril 21: wen windstorms 0i,0ed u dust 8rom te Ko=i Desert in +ongolia and used it to more tan 1: 8eet in altitude: were it,ould =e ,atured =% strong winds and used dire,tl% a,ross te Pa,i8i,. In tat event: reorted last ;ovem=er in a aer u=lised in te Journal E-S 7ransa,tions: al8 te arti,ulate matter wassmaller tan 2.F mi,rons and al8 was 2.F to 1 mi,rons. +easurements were ta0en at 11 sites in te Interagen,% +onitoring Program 8or imroved Misual Environments networ0: sread trougout teUnited States in relativel% ristine environments: su, as national ar0s and wildli8e re8uges. eadings on Aril 1: 21: averaged a,ross te ,ountr% gave a value o8 nine mi,rograms er ,u=i, meter 8orarti,ulates 1 mi,rons or smaller. #% Aril 1$: te average rea,ed 1$ mi,rograms: even toug measuring stations tend to =e 8ar 8rom industrial ollution sour,es. L'learl% =% Aril 1$: tat dust 8rom

Asia was all over te United States: and it didnHt dissiate immediatel%:L 9a88e said. LIt didnHt go =a,0 down to nine until +a%: and tere were several uses o8 it ,oming a,ross.L #e8ore 21: arti,ulate

measurements 8rom te 11 interagen,% networ0 sites dating =a,0 to te mid1(4s sow Just one ,omara=le event: in 1((4. Asian pollution comes across on winds pulled by

a sort of high$speed conveyor belt, with a low$pressure system over the Aleutian +slands and a high$pressure cell near


4/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment "

#Ama+on

,e*orestation declining in the Ama+on now-ett .utler4/1/20tt?//news.monga=a%.,om/2&/41ama!on


5/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment F

sa%s. #ot s,ientists sa% te argument tat te ,ure 8or ,an,er ,ould =e idden in a rain8orest lant or animal wilelausi=le is also =ased on 8alse s,ien,e =e,ause te sea olds more m%steries o8 li8e tan te rain8orests . And =otsa% 8earstat man is destro%ing tis raw sour,e o8 medi,ine are un8ounded =e,ause te rain8orests are remar0a=l%ealt%. L7e% are Just a=out te ealtiest 8orests in te world. 7is stu88 a=out tem vanising at an alarmingrate is a ,on =ased on =ad s,ien,e:L +oore sa%s.


6/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment $

#.ees

?oney(ees are not %ey to survivalIN=E1NA=I;NAL ?E1AL, =1I.&NE >)2)200 tt?//www.it.,om/arti,les/a/2&/F//ealts,ien,e/;AS'IUSGone%=eesWeird.37e s,ientist wo wrote te aer: Ste8an Qimmel: emailed 7e Asso,iated Press to sa% tat tere is Lno lin0 =etween our tin% little stud% and te ''D

enomenon ... an%ting else said or written is a lie.L And U.S. Deartment o8 Agri,ulture to =ee resear,er 9e88 Pettis laugsat te idea: =e,ause wenever e goes out to investigate dead =ees: e ,annot get a signal on is ,ell one =e,ause te ives are in su, remoteareas. Also on te Internet is a Buote attri=uted to Al=ert Einstein on ow umans would die o88 in 8our %ears i8not 8or one%=ees. It is wrong on two ,ounts. 5irst: Einstein ro=a=l% never said it: a,,ording to Ali,e 'alari,e:autor o8 L7e Ruota=le EinsteinL and 8ive oter =oo0s on te %si,ist . LIHve never ,ome a,ross it in an%ting Einstein aswritten:L 'alari,e said. LIt ,ould =e tat someonead made it u and ut EinsteinHs name on it.LSe,ond: it is in,orre,ts,ienti8i,all%: Pettis said. 7ere would =e 8ood le8t 8or umans =e,ause some 8ood is windollinated .

No im'act to honey(ee dieo**MI=? 200 Geater: Slate: 9ul% 1: tt?//www.slate.,om/id/21&F/agenum/23#ut is ''D su, a traged% 7e one%=eema% =e te onl% inse,t ever etended ,arismati, mega8auna status: =ut itHs alread% gone8rom te wild and it wasnHt even native to ;ort Ameri,a to =egin wit 3. Sure: it ma0es one%: =ut we alread% get most o8 tat8rom overseas. Wat a=out te T1".$ =illion in L8ree la=orL ItHs more eensive tan ever? In te last tree %ears: te ,ost to rent a ive during te

'ali8ornia almond =loom as triled: 8rom TF to T1F. Kood ting te one%=ee isnHt te onl% inse,t tat ,an ollinate our,ros. In te last de,ade: resear, la=s ave gotten serious a=out ,ultivating oter inse,ts 8or mass ollination .7e% arenHt at te oint %et were te% ,an rovide all o8 te ,ountr%Hs ollination needs: =ut te%Hre getting tere. 7is %ear te 'ali8ornia Almond #oardtwotimed te one%=ee wit -smia lignaria>te =lueor,ard =ee? Desite ''D: te% ad a re,ord arvest.*

Im'act is em'irically denied4massive dieo**s have occurred in 'ast;L,1;Y, 200 Dr. #enJamin P. -ldro%d is wit te #eaviour and Keneti,s o8 So,ial Inse,ts a=orator%: S,ool o8 #iologi,al S,ien,es:Universit% o8 S%dne%: PoS #iolog%: 9une: tt?//www.u=med,entral.ni.gov/arti,lerender.8,giartid14(24"3

Some winter losses are normal: and =e,ause te roortion o8 ,olonies d%ing varies enormousl% 8rom %ear to%ear: it is di88i,ult to sa% wen a ,risis is o,,urring and wen losses are art o8 te normal ,ontinuum. Wat is,lear is tat a=out one %ear in ten: aiarists su88er unusuall% eav% ,olon% losses. 7is as =een going on 8or along time. In Ireland: tere was a @great mortalit% o8 =ees in (F: and again in ((2 and 1"" V. -ne o8 te most 8amous events was in te sring o81($: wen most =ee0eeers on te Isle o8 Wigt United Qingdom3 lost all o8 teir ,olonies V". Ameri,an =ee0eeers also su88er eav% losses

eriodi,all%. In 1(: in te 'a,e valle% o8 Uta: 2 ,olonies were lost to a m%sterious @disaearing disease 8ollowing a @ard winter and ,oldsring VF. +ore re,entl%: tere was an in,ident in 1((F in wi, Penns%lvania =ee0eeers lost FX o8 ,olonies V$.

.ees are uselessA: Wheat is %ey to glo(al *ood consum'tion6A1=E1 200! 'olin 'arter is wit te Deartment o8 Agri,ultural and esour,e E,onomi,s: U' Davis: 'I++Y7 World Weat -verview and-utloo0: www.,imm%t.org/esear,/E,onomi,s/ma/8a,ts


7/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment &

#.iodiversity

1. Impact is empirically denied years of species loss ith no impact

A!C "es # @#iodiversit% 'rasing Australia Wide: A#' ;ews Worldwide:tt?//www.a=,.net.au/news/stories/2(/$/1/2F("44".tm: AD? $//(3 A;

Australia has the worst record for mammal e-tinctions and near$e-tinctions of any developed nation in the world. And according tothe latest national audit of Australian biodiversity, the nation is still losing plant and animal species on a continental scale. The

Australian Terrestrial @iodiversity Assessment !"" has been finished for nine months, but is yet to beofficially released. Environment minister Peter *arrett>s office says it is out for peer review, but forest ecologis

avid Lindenmayer has told Badio 7ational @reakfast that government attempts to turn back the tide of species

losses are not working. C@iodiversity is not doing well in Australia, and it>s continued to do very badly for uite some time,C he

said. C:e are seeing massive crashes of mammal populations in northern Australia now ,and we>re not seeing those insouthern Australia because essentially mammals have gone from huge areas of woodlands, and we are starting tosee the bird populations crash .C According to 5r Lindenmayer, not even 1" per cent of mammal population numbers

that e-isted in northern Australia 1" to 1# years ago are left. +n =ictoria there are huge crashes in the number ofbirds. The *overnment has implemented a national biodiversity conservation strategy to try to reverse the trend.

2. "o Impact $ Corporations innovation solves !io% loss

&home # @Wol*gang ? =ourism re'orter B


8/31


Proponents of *59s have not been able to alleviate worries that transgenic foods have the potential for creating

une-pected reactions in humansunless these foods, which have never been seen before and thus not selected for human consumption by eons of evolution,

are tested rigorously in accordance with the universally recognised precautionary principle.7either have they been able to allay worries that non$

target populations might be negatively affected by genetic modification aimed at specific pests, as in the case of @t corn>s impact on

the monarch butterfly.7or have they dispelled the very real threat of loss of biodiversity posed by *59s. The risks are hardly trifling,

as noted by one accountF The effects of transgenic crops on biodiversity far e-tend the concerns already raised by monocropping

under the *reen Bevolution.7ot only is diversity decreased through the physical loss of species, but because of its >live> aspect, it has thepotential to contaminate, and potentially to dominate, other strains of the same species. :hile this may be a limited concern with respect to the contamination of anothe

commercial crop, it is significantly more worrisomewhen it could contaminate and eradicate generations of evolution of diverse and subtly differentiatedstrains of a single crop, such as the recently discovered transgenic contamination of landraces of indigenous corn in 5e-ico.G3H

1e)s'eciation will ra'idly *ill in the vacuumMc


9/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment (

#6oral1. "on$/ni/e maor coral loss no

&oon @3ohn )ana,er of (eor,ia &ech 5esearch and /-lications 7%iversity of plant$eatin, fishes may -e 8ey to recovery of coral reefs9 :http;s population, protect tropical shorelines from erosion, and harbor animals and plants with great potential to provide new

therapeutic drugs. ;nfortunately,reefs are no -eset -y pro-lems ran,in, from local poll/tion and overfishin, to

o/t-rea8s of coral disease and ,lo-al armin,.Although most scientists agree that reefs are in desperate trouble, they disagree strongly over the timingand causes of the coral reef crisis. This is not )ust an academic e-ercise, because different answers dictate different strategies for managers and policymakers intent on saving reef ecosystems.

The cover story published this month in *eology helps focus the debate. A team led by Bichard Aronson of the auphin +sland ea Lab in Alabama took cores through reef frameworks in

@eli4e to reconstruct the history of the reefs over the past several thousand years. Although some scientists have s/,,ested that reefs -e,an their

decline cent/ries a,o d/e to early overfishin,, AronsonBs team fo/nd that coral populations were healthy and vibrant untilthe 12"s, when they werekilled by disease and high sea temperatures. The research effort was supported by the 7ational *eographic ociety, the mithsonian +nstitutionand the 7ational cience Doundation. As Aronson points out, CProtecting fish populations is important in its own right, but it won>t save the corals. 6orals are being killed at an

unprecedented rate by forces outside local control.aving coral reefs means addressing global environmental issues$$climate change in particular$$at the highest levels ofgovernment.C


10/31


#,ead Gones

! tatus Huo solves- 7ertili+er use declining now-

Kina =eel !/2/200"sta88 writer: 'algar% Gerald:tt?//www.,anada.,om/,algar%erald/news/,algar%=usiness/stor%.tmlidaa"8,,e&(d,""1=1"28F=,881d8F3

7e glo=al e,onomi, re,ession is rede8ining norms ever%were and te agri,ultural se,tor is no e,etion. ItHs =e,ome a la,e o8 etremeswerein rea,tive mar0ets ,an evis,erate ,ommodities in te =lin0 o8 an e%e: and were demand d%nami,s see 8armers a=le to =u% 8ertili!er olding out

8or 8iresale ri,es wile tose wo want to =u% ,anHt: as a,,ess to ,redit as dried u. 7e latter demand s,enarioas ,ontri=uted to anun'recedented reduction in *ertili+er use (y *armers on a glo=al =asis tis 8all: wi, saw 'algar%

=ased Agrium: ;ort Ameri,aHs tirdlargest 8ertili!er rodu,er: sut in rodu,tion o8 nitrogen and osatesearlier tis mont at some o8 its ;ort Ameri,a 8a,ilities.Agrium isn9t alone. Plants in te U. Q. and teU. S. aveannoun,ed sutins 8or nitrogen and 8or urea: as well asosates and: in 'anada: otas.Klo=all%: outut o8 all treenutrients as =een trimmed. 5or Wilson: a veteran ,ommodities ,areer gu% woHs ridden out re,essions =e8ore: Ltoug none wit su, are,iitous dro:L te =iggest surrise o8 re,ent events was tat te 8armers would cut (ac% on their *ertili+er'urchase this *all to te degree te% ave. LItHs uneard o8:L Wilson said in a re,ent interview at AgriumHs

su=ur=an 'algar% eadBuarters.

2 $lan doesn5t solve- most dead +ones not in the &-

+i,ael .ernstein: /2(/20tt?//www.eure0alert.org/u=0 'ermanent andrecurring dead +ones e3ist worldwide: in,luding " in U.S. ,oastal waters.

D $o'ulation growth and 'ollution causes o* ul* o* Me3ico dead +ones4they don5t solve-

=i+on 2008 sta88: os Angeles 7imes: F/$/2"C eis

Pollution =rougt on =% raid oulation growt and develoment as ,aused o%gen levels in tewater to dro: rendering one large se,tion o8 te ,anal a Ldead !one.L

7e s,ene Lis rett% 8rigtening:L said Erli,: F$. 7e growing dead !one treatens not Just sea li8e Good 'anal as one o8 te ri,est sell8is =eds in PugetSound =ut te entire e,os%stem: a anol% o8 =irds and mammals: 8orests: and a vast networ0 o8 salmonri, rivers and streams. Also at sta0e is te ,analHsimage as a ristine outost: te last natural =arrier rote,ting te -l%mi, Peninsula 8rom te lagues o8 ur=an srawl. 7e ,anal ma0es u te eninsulaHs stillwild eastern edge: a water% sield against te westward us o8 eole and ma,ines. Kov. Kar% o,0e warned re,entl% tat te ,anal ,ould turn into a Ldead sea.LI8 tat aened: Wasington would lose Lone o8 its great Jewels:L said state 8iser% =iologist Duane 5agergren. 7e state also ,ould see te e88luen,e o8 srawl

tri,0le into te eninsula: one o8 te last great unsoiled areas in te West: e said. Dead !ones are ,reated =% large ,on,entrations o8eole and te ollution te% generate. esear,ers ave identi8ied dead !ones in os Angeles Gar=or:'esaea0e #a% and the ul* o* Me3ico.
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=aa4fcce7-90dc-4431-b104-2f5b3cff1df5http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=aa4fcce7-90dc-4431-b104-2f5b3cff1df5http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-03/acs-oz032906.phphttp://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=aa4fcce7-90dc-4431-b104-2f5b3cff1df5http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=aa4fcce7-90dc-4431-b104-2f5b3cff1df5http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-03/acs-oz032906.php


11/31


#Monoculture

Monoculture is sta(le4it is Just an e3tenstion o* 'lant mono)dominance that occurs in natureAKE1Y 200D Dennis: 5ounder o8 te 'enter 8or Klo=al 5ood Issues: @+imi,0ing ;ature to Eat Well: +ar,:tt?//www.,g8i.org/materials/arti,les/2/mar


12/31


#;ceans

@/: Massive conservation e**orts solving now

GinaGoodhill. Wednesday, January 7, 2009. Bush moves to conserve the Pacific Ocean.http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/!!"/!#/!$/%&'(#)*+".&,


13/31


#;il ,e'endency

@)): Even under (est case conditions the time *rame to their advantage is 20D0-#enJamin Q. Sovacool 200= Mirginia Pol%te,ni, Institute and State Universit%3. Energ% Poli,%: Molume F:Issue 11: ;ovem=er 2&. @Solving te oil indeenden,e ro=lem? Is it ossi=lett?//www.s,ien,edire,t.,om/s,ien,e


14/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 1"

#;il hoc%s

Multi'le chec%s to the im'act o* oil shoc%s-Fconomist 2011+ar, : 211: @7e 211 oil so,0:tt?//www.e,onomist.,om/node/14241&&"3

So 8ar: te so,0s to sul% have -een tiny. i=%as turmoil as redu,ed glo=al oil outut =% a mere 1X . In 1(&te 8igure was around &.FX. 7oda%s oil mar0et also has plenty of -/ffers. Kovernments ave sto,0iles: wi, te%didnt in 1(&.Commercial oil stoc8s are more ample tan te% were wen ri,es ea0ed in 24.Saudi Ara=ia: te ,entral =an0 o8 te oilmar0et: te,ni,all%as eno/,h spare capacity to rela,e i=%a: Algeria and a ,lut, o8 oter small rodu,ers. And teSaudis ave made clear that they are illin, to p/mp.

Even large shoc%s don5t cause maJor crises) 20!0 'rovesha'iro 2)"11 Vo=ert: ,airman and ,o8ounder o8 Sone,on: ': a rivate 8irm tat rovides advi,e andanal%sis to senior ee,utives and o88i,ials o8 U.S. and 8oreign =usinesses: governments: and nonro8itorgani!ations and 8ormer Under Se,retar% o8 'ommer,e 8or E,onomi, A88airs 8rom 1((& to 21: @7e ealE,onomi, Imli,ations o8 te Urising in Eg%t: tt?//ndn.org/=log/211/2/reale,onomi,imli,ationsurisingeg%t#ut in order to threaten the & and glo(al recoveries an oil 'rice s'i%e would have to (e (oth verylarge and 'ersistent)) *or at least *our)to)si3 months .e*ore this year5s unrest gri''ed =unisia

and Egy't oil 'rices in 20!0 had risen (y a(out 2 'ercent =hat cost the & nited tates anadditional 2 (illion *or oil im'orts an e3tra 0 (illion *or the E&5s oil im'orts and 2

(illion more *or a'an =hat5s not 'eanuts (ut it was still Just ri''les *or economies o* theirsi+e. Saudi Ara=ia is te onl% ,ountr% wit te ,aa,it% to engineer and maintain a ri,e si0e su88i,ient to wre,0 real e,onomi, avo, as it as te,aa,it% to revent an% oter oilrodu,ing ,ountr% 8rom tr%ing to do te same.

;il reserves and ;$E6 chec% the im'act o* any shoc%sEverly 2)2!11 VSteve: sta88 writer 8or te Qansas 'it% Star: @'risis in i=%a =rings worries: =ut not a ani,:over oil ri,es: tt?//www.0ansas,it%.,om/211/2/21/2$&242/li=%an,risis=ringsoil

worries.tml6i!!1K%=$K$)

-n +onda%: 8oreign oil ,omanies ulled emlo%ees out o8 i=%a amid mied reorts a=out ow mu, te unrest as a88e,ted oil rodu,tion. I8 tosesulies disaeared: te largest disrution would =e su88ered =% Euroe: wi, imorts 4 er,ent o8 i=%as oil. 7e United States ta0es onl% F

er,ent. =he strategic oil reserves in (oth Euro'e and the & are more than am'le to re'laceshort)term interru'tions =he & has emergency stoc%'ilesto meet te ,ountr%s demand 8or oil 8or 4 da%s. Also:commercial oil inventories are well a(ove normal =he disru'tion could (e *urther reduced (ythe ;rgani!ation o8 te $etroleumEorting6ountries: wi, as more ,aa,it% to rodu,e oil tan it now uses. Produ,tion ,aa,it% is te a=ilit% to si more oil witout aving to elore anddrill 8or more sulies. 7at sur'lus ca'acity is 8> million (arrels a day : or a=out trile i=%as rodu,tion.In the 'ast ;$E6has used its sur'lus ca'acity when there were serious disru'tions including when IraH invaded


15/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 1F

even in the middle case the oil shoc% would (e only o* similar magnitude to what was o(servedin 200>)200 when the glo(al economy continued steaming ahead with a ,$ growth rate o*a(out > 'er cent. Gowever: on te essimisti, ,ase: te T" a =arrel annual rise in oil ri,es: ersisting 8or a=out a %ear: ,ould ,ut glo=al KDPgrowt =% a=out 2 er ,ent: and tat would =e ver% ard 8or te world e,onom% to ,oe wit. ?ow li%ely is it that oil 'rices couldrise to !20 'er (arrel and then stay there 8or te =etter art o8 a 8ull %ear In m% oinion: this is not 'articularlyli%ely unless Saudi Ara=ia elodes. 7en: as te% sa%: all =ets are o88.


16/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 1$

#;+oneYour ;+one Im'acts are em'irically denied it5s all hy'e *ounded on *lawed evidence recorded

in the 05s and the "05sLie(erman 0#en ie=erman: a senior oli,% anal%st at te Geritage 5oundation: Setem=er 1(: 2&: Wasington 7imes: ln

7e international treat% to rote,t te o!one la%er turns 2 tis %ear. #ut is tere reall% mu, reason to,ele=rate Environmentalists ave made man% ao,al%ti, redi,tions over te last several de,ades. Mirtuall%none as ,ome to ass. Yet ea, time: te greens and teir oliti,al allies ro,laim vi,tor%: arguing teirreventive res,ritions averted disaster. Su, is te ,ase wit te 1(4& +ontreal Proto,ol -n Su=stan,es7at Delete 7e -!one a%er +ontreal Proto,ol3. &he l/rid predictions of ozone depletion$ind/ced s8in cancerepidemics ecosystem destr/ction and others havenBt come tr/e: 8or wi, +ontreal Proto,ol roonents ,ongratulatetemselves. !/t in retrospect the evidence shos ozone depletion as an ea,,erated threat in the first place.As tetreat% arties return to +ontreal 8or teir 2t anniversar% meeting it sould =e ,ause 8or re8le,tion: not,ele=ration: ese,iall% 8or tose wo oe to reeat tis Lsu,,ess stor%L in te ,ontet o8 glo=al warming. &hetreaty came a-o/t over le,itimate -/t overstated concerns that chlorofl/orocar-ons'5's: a tenwidel% used ,lass o8re8rigerants3 and other compo/nds ere risin, to the stratosphere and destroyin, ozone molec/les.7ese mole,ules:,olle,tivel% 0nown as te o!one la%er: sield te Eart 8rom e,essive ultraviolet# radiation UM#3 8rom te

sun. 7e +ontreal Proto,olHs rovisions were tigtened in 1(( and again in 1((2: ,ulminating wit a '5' =anin most develoed nations =% 1(($. So wat do we 0now now As far as ozone depletion is concerned the thinnin, ofthe ozone layer that occ/rred thro/,ho/t the 1#0s apparently stopped in the early 1##0s too soon to credit the )ontreal

rotocol. A 1((4 World +eteorologi,al -rgani!ation W+-3 reort said? LSince 1##1 the linear GdonardH trendo-served d/rin, the 1#0s has not contin/ed -/t rather total col/mn ozone has -een almost constant. Joever the same

report noted that the stratospheric concentrations of the offendin, compo/nds ere still increasin, thro/,h 1##. &his lends

credence to the s8eptical vie: widel% derided at te time o8 te +ontreal Proto,ol: tat natural variations =etterelain te 8lu,tuations in te glo=al o!one la%er. +ore imortantl%: te 8eared in,rease in ground level UM#radiation as also 8ailed to materiali!e. Keep in mind that ozone depletion in and of itself doesnBt really harm h/manhealth or the environment. It as the concern that an eroded ozone layer ill allo more of the s/nBs dama,in, ! rays to

reach the Farth that led to the )ontreal rotocol. !/t E)* concedes no statistically si,nificant lon,$term trends have -een

detected notin, earlier this year that o/tside the polar re,ions ozone depletion has -een relatively small hence in many

places increases in d/e to this depletion are diffic/lt to separate from the increases ca/sed -y other factors s/ch as

chan,es in clo/d and aerosol. In short the impact of ozone depletion on ! over pop/lated re,ions is so small itBs hard to

detect. "eedless to say if ! hasnBt ,one /p then the fears of increased !$ind/ced harm are /nfo/nded.Indeed: them/ch$hyped acceleration in s8in cancer rates hasnBt -een doc/mented. .S. "ational Cancer Instit/te statistics sho

mali,nant melanoma incidence and mortality hich had -een /nder,oin, a lon,$term increase that predates ozone depletion

has act/ally -een levelin, offd/rin, theutative ozone crisis. 5urter: no ecosystem or species as ever shon to -eserio/sly harmed -y ozone depletion. 7is is true even in Antar,ti,a: were te largest seasonal o!one losses: teso,alled Antar,ti, o!one ole: o,,ur annuall%. Also for,otten is a lon, list of tr/ly ridic/lo/s claims s/ch as the onefrom Al (oreBs1((2 -oo8LEart in te #alan,eL that than8s to the Antarctic ozone hole h/nters no report findin,-lind ra--itsM fisherman catch -lind salmon. -verall: te +ontreal Proto,ol isnHt ma0ing tese =ad ,onseBuen,esgo awa% te% were never o,,urring in te 8irst la,e.

;+one de'letion inevita(le=IME E,&6A=I;NAL &$$LEMEN= !)!)2008

Witout tis rote,tion: tere would =e little li8e on Eart. So: o!one is 8ormed =% UM: destro%ed =% UM: and in te ro,ess itrote,ts us 8rom UM. Wat tis means is tat tere is an Lo!one =alan,eL a state in wi, o!one is =eing ,reated and destro%ed at eBual rateswi, 0ees te o!one la%er in =eing. 7e =alan,e is naturall% 8ragile and 8lu,tuating: and an%ting tat usets itand in,reases te rate o8o!one destru,tion is otentiall% li8etreateningen,e te worr%: sin,e te 1(4s: a=out te e88e,t o8te release into teatmosere o8 ,loro8luoro,ar=ons '5's3: su, as tose used in aerosols: re8rigerators and air ,onditioners. 7ese inter8ere wit te o!one

=alan,e =% romoting ,omle ,emi,al rea,tions tat seed u te =rea0down o8 o!one. 7e ro=lem is aggravated =%te 8a,t tat '5's were used 8or man% %ears in te =elie8 tat te% were inert: wit no environmental enalties. 7eir ver% sta=ilit%: owever: means tat

even a8ter te% ave =een ased out: te% will remain in te atmosere 8or a long time .


17/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 1&

#;3ygen

No im'act to o3ygen4even i* every tree in the world was (urned o3ygen levels would remainhighN;WA< et al 200 David 9. ;owa0: ProJe,t eader: USDA 5orest Servi,e: ;ortern esear, Station F +oon i=rar%C o=ert Goen:#iologi,al S,ien,e 7e,ni,ian: USDA 5orest Servi,e ;ortern esear, Station F +oon i=rar%C Daniel E. 'rane: In8ormation 7e,nolog% Se,ialistUSDA 5orest Servi,e ;ortern esear, Station F +oon i=rar%. Ar=ori,ulture \ Ur=an 5orestr%: +a%:

tt?//nrs.8s.8ed.us/u=s/Jrnl/2&/nrs


18/31


#$esticides @Endocrine disru'tors:

No im'act to endocrine disru'tors- their evidence is Just 'anic and 'u(lic hysteria:.reithau't 2008Golger: PD 8rom U. D_sseldor8 Institute o8 En!%me 7e,nolog%: E+#-eorts: LA ,ause witout a diseaseL: F?1:tt?//www.nature.,om/em=or/Journal/vF/n1/8ull/&"$.tml3

Endo,rine disrutors>or Hgender =endersH as te% are o8ten re8erred to =% te u=li,>ave =e,ome te 8o,us o8environmentalists and u=li, ealt advo,ates wo de,r% a slow oisoning o8 umans and te environment =% te,emi,al and ,onsumer goods industries. 7e term is a rater =road la=el 8or su=stan,es tat are a=le to inter8ere wit ormone re,etors or ormonalatwa%s in te ,ell. Endo,rine disrutors ave ,aused serious u=li, ,on,ern: =e,ause teir intera,tion wit te ormone s%stem ,ould otentiall%wrea0 avo, wit renatal and earl% develoment and a88e,t a wide variet% o8 organs. 7eo 'ol=orn: a resear,er 8or te World Wildli8e 5und: ainted a=lea0 i,ture o8 teir e88e,ts at a 21 meeting o8 te US Deartment o8 te Interior? L... tese ,emi,als ,an undermine te develoment o8 te =rain:and intelligen,e and =eaviour: and te endo,rine: immune and rerodu,tive s%stems. ... tere is now a growing ,olle,tion o8 studies revealing tat some

o8 tese ,emi,als ,an a88e,t our ,ildrenHs a=ilit% to learn: to so,iall% integrate: to 8end o88 disease and to rerodu,eL 'ol=orn: 213. Gowever: asu=li, 8ear mounted: te eviden,e 8or a ,reeing eidemi, ,aused =% endo,rine disrutors in te environment

remained elusive In 8a,t: earl% o=servations on wild and la=orator% animals sowed tat some ,omounds tat are a=le to intera,t witre,etor mole,ules: in arti,ular wit te oestrogen re,etor: eert e88e,ts on te rerodu,tive s%stem o8 tese animals. 7ese o=servations werea,,omanied =% reorts on te in,reasing in,iden,e o8 =reast and rostate ,an,er and de,lining male 8ertilit%: and it was onl% a matter o8 time =e8ore teress too0 u te issue and arents =e,ame ,on,erned a=out tis slow oisoning o8 teir ,ildren. Gowever: as u=li, 8ear mounted: te eviden,e 8or a,reeing eidemi, ,aused =% endo,rine disrutors in te environment remained elusive. Altoug most s,ientists now a,0nowledge tat man%

su=stan,es ,an ave an e88e,t on te uman endo,rine s%stem: more re,ent anal%sis as sown tat man% o8 te ,laims a=outealt e88e,ts were eiter e3aggerated or (ased on *lawed analysis o8 o=servations. As Steen G.Sa8e: Pro8essor o8 Meterinar% P%siolog% and Parma,olog% and o8 #io,emistr% and #io%si,s at 7eas A\+ Universit% 'ollege

Station: 7`: USA3ut it? L7e %otesis is o0a%: =utwe don9t even have a 'ro(lem.L

Even 'ro'onents o* the theory that endocrine threatened human health have recanted theirviews-.reithau't 2008Golger: PD 8rom U. D_sseldor8 Institute o8 En!%me 7e,nolog%: E+#-eorts: LA ,ause witout a diseaseL: F?1:tt?//www.nature.,om/em=or/Journal/vF/n1/8ull/&"$.tml3i,ard Sare: one o8 te original autors o8 te endo,rine disrutor %otesis: also a,0nowledged tat Lte

treat Vto uman ealt is minimal.L In 8a,t: a series o8 studies tat ,losel% investigated te original

u=li,ations ,laiming an in,rease in =reast and rostate ,an,er and a de,line in male 8ertilit% 8ound tat tis isnot so. LWe now 0now tat this is a(solutely not true:L Sa8e said a=out ealt advo,ates wo warn tatendo,rine disrutors ,ould ,ause a worldwide eidemi, o8 disorders and diseases. A,,ording to Witors,:man% o8 te original e'idemiological analyses were *lawed and la,0ed ,on8ounding 8a,tors.

Academic researchers can5t re'roduce the su''osed human health e**ects o* endocrinedisru'tors-.reithau't 2008Golger: PD 8rom U. D_sseldor8 Institute o8 En!%me 7e,nolog%: E+#-eorts: LA ,ause witout a diseaseL: F?1:tt?//www.nature.,om/em=or/Journal/vF/n1/8ull/&"$.tml3In 1(($:'ol=orn: togeter wit s,ien,e writers Dianne Dumanos0i and 9on Peterson +%ers:,omiled tese o=servations into te

=oo0 -ur Stolen 5uture and drew a straigt line =etween te e88e,ts o=served in wild animals and uman

ealt e88e,ts: in,luding =reast and rostate ,an,er and de,reasing male 8ertilit% ,aused =% de,reasing serm ,ounts:,r%tor,idism were one or =ot testi,les 8ail to des,end 8rom te =od%3 and %osadias de8ormation o8 te allus3. -8ten ,omared to a,el'arsonHs Silent Sring: 'ol=ornHs =oo0 ad an enormous ima,t on u=li, oinion and triggered intense media ,overage a=out te suse,ted eidemi, o8,an,ers and male in8ertilit%. 7e media o=tained 8urter ammunition wen 5red vom Saal and ,owor0ers at te Universit% o8 +issouri 'olum=ia: +-:USA3 sowed tat =isenol A #PA3: a ,ommonl% used ,omound 8ound in man% lasti,s: ,aused a=normal rostate growt and de,reased sermrodu,tion in rats at doses 8ar lower tan tose ,onsidered to =e sa8e ;agel et al: 1((&C vom Saal et al: 1((43. Patri,ia Gunt at 'ase Western eserveUniversit% 'leveland: -G: USA3 o=served tat #PA ,aused severe a=errations o8 te meioti, ,ell division in mouse oo,%tes in u to "X o8 all ,ases

Gunt et al: 23.Altoug industrial and a,ademi, resear,ers ave so 8ar 8ailed to rerodu,e vom SaalHs8indings: is wor0 as =e,ome te main argument 8or u=li, ealt advo,ates wo see0 to =an ,emi,als su,as #PA =e,ause te% ,an eert teir toi, e88e,ts at etremel% low doses. In 8a,t: a series o8 studies tat ,losel%investigated te original u=li,ations ,laiming an in,rease in =reast and rostate ,an,er and a de,line in male8ertilit% 8ound tat tis is not so.
http://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v5/n1/full/7400063.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v5/n1/full/7400063.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v5/n1/full/7400063.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v5/n1/full/7400063.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v5/n1/full/7400063.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v5/n1/full/7400063.html


19/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 1(


20/31


#$ollution

Ignore their 'ollution arguments4*ear o* 'ollutant ris%s would Justi*y wi'ing out all o*humanity and 'er*ect sa*ety is im'ossi(leIM;N " 9ulian: o=ert G. Smit S,ool o8 #usiness: Universit% o8 +ar%land: 7e Ultimate esour,e II? Peole: +aterials:and Environment: tt?//www.rsmit.umd.edu/8a,ult%/Jsimon/Ultimate


21/31


IM;N " 9ulian: o=ert G. Smit S,ool o8 #usiness: Universit% o8 +ar%land: 7e Ultimate esour,e II? Peole: +aterials: and Environment:tt?//www.rsmit.umd.edu/8a,ult%/Jsimon/Ultimate


22/31


#$hyto'lan%ton

It5s inevita(leA: ;+one de'letion inevita(le=IME E,&6A=I;NAL &$$LEMEN= !)!)2008

Witout tis rote,tion: tere would =e little li8e on Eart. So: o!one is 8ormed =% UM: destro%ed =% UM: and in te ro,ess itrote,ts us 8rom UM. Wat tis means is tat tere is an Lo!one =alan,eL a state in wi, o!one is =eing ,reated and destro%ed at eBual rateswi, 0ees te o!one la%er in =eing. 7e =alan,e is naturall% 8ragile and 8lu,tuating: and an%ting tat usets itand in,reases te rate o8o!one destru,tion is otentiall% li8etreateningen,e te worr%: sin,e te 1(4s: a=out te e88e,t o8te release into teatmosere o8 ,loro8luoro,ar=ons '5's3: su, as tose used in aerosols: re8rigerators and air ,onditioners. 7ese inter8ere wit te o!one

=alan,e =% romoting ,omle ,emi,al rea,tions tat seed u te =rea0down o8 o!one. 7e ro=lem is aggravated =%te 8a,t tat '5's were used 8or man% %ears in te =elie8 tat te% were inert: wit no environmental enalties. 7eir ver% sta=ilit%: owever: means tat

even a8ter te% ave =een ased out: te% will remain in te atmosere 8or a long time .

.: ,estroys 'hyto'lan%ton,E$A1=MEN= ;7 ENKI1;NMEN=AL $1;=E6=I;N 200+ontgomer% 'ount% +D DEP: @Kround evel -!one:

August 1: tt?//www.montgomer%,ount%md.gov/detml.asurl/,ontent/de/aB/o!one.as3As te stratoseri, o!one la%er is deleted: iger UM= levels rea, te earts sur8a,e. In,reased UM= ,an lead to more ,ases o8 s0in,an,er: ,atara,ts: and imaired immune s%stems. +an% o8 our essential ,ros: su, as ,orn: =arle%: os:

weat and so%=eans: ma% =e,ome damaged: de,reasing teir %ield. P%tolan0ton: a lant in te o,ean: also isa88e,ted. Deletion o8 tis imortant lin0 in te marine 8ood ,ain ,ould redu,e te num=er o8 8is in teo,ean. It also ,an in,rease te level o8 ,ar=on dioide in te atmosere =e,ause %tolan0ton a=sor=s ,ar=ondioide in teir 8ood and energ% ma0ing ro,esses.


23/31



24/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 2"

#####Warming 7rontline

! massive structural (arriers to international law that (loc% sharing innovations

Andrews !0VAr 1: tt?//www.tee,ologist.org/trial


25/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 2F

dioide in,reases alone. Warming o* the oceans is a trend that cannot easily (e reversed warm o,eans ,ould =e,ooled onl% i8 te atmosere a=ove tem were signi8i,antl% ,ooler. Un8ortunatel%: te o,eans are su, a uge eat sin0: ,overing a=out twotirds o8 te

Earts sur8a,e. We ,ant easil% ,ool te atmosere enoug to =egin ,ooling te o,eans. Even with reduction in manmade 6;2emissions atmos'heric amounts would not level o** *or a(out 200 years and tem'eratures

would continue to increase *or another 200 years Even with no *urther manmade emissions itwould ta%e hundreds to thousands o* years to cool our environment to levels o* a century ago

> ?umans can ada'tLom(erg 5!0V#Jorn: ead o8 te 'oenagen 'onsensus 'enter: /1(: @'ars: #om=s: and 'limate 'ange:tt?//www.lom=org.,om/d%n/8iles/newsP o* the world5s land mass . 7e IEA said it was ne,essar%to re,al,ulate all glo=altemerature data in order to assess te s,ale o8 su, eaggeration. Klo=altemerature data will ave to =e modi8ied i8 similar ,limatedate ro,edures ave =een used 8rom oter

national data =e,ause te ,al,ulations used =% '-P1F anal%sts: in,luding 8inan,ial ,al,ulations: are =ased on Gad'U7 resear,. Wat te ussians are suggesting ere: in oter words: is tat theentire glo(al tem'erature record used (y the I$66 to in*orm world government 'olicy is acroc%. As i,ard ;ort sa%s? 7is is serial.


26/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 2$

E3t Q! can5t solve innovation sharing

E3tend our Andrews evidence it5s one o* their !A6 authors and it indicates that there arestructural (arriers in international legal codes that ma%e the dissemination o* newtechnologies s'eci*ically those related to climate change nearly im'ossi(le

Also *rom your !A6 author licensing changes %ey you can5t access innovation sharingAndrews !0VAr 1: tt?//www.tee,ologist.org/trial


27/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 2&

E3t Q2 no one will model

E3tend our .arton evidence he5s a senior *ellow at the .roo%ings Institute ) he indicates that6hina India and the develo'ing world dwar* the & in car(on emission 7urthermore none o*them will get on (oard with cutting emmissions they all care too much a(out develo'ment tosto' 'olluting

India ill not c/t emissions hich ill h/rt its development&ransnational Instit/te =

3/ne ='A worldwide fellowship of committed scholar$activists, 'httpFwww.tni.orgdetailNpage.phtmlMactNidO1%2/2( ET

+ndia is likely to cut a sorry figure on climate change issues during and after the * summit at s fifth largest emitter of

greenhouse gases '*s visit to *ermany $$ironically, on :orld Environment ay $$

senior officials made it clear that "e %elhi stic8s to its stand that it is the developed orld hich ca/sed climate chan,e

thro/,h its ind/strial activitiesM the on/s to reverse the dama,e lies on the developed co/ntries . inghsaidF C%/e care

m/st -e ta8en not to allo ,roth and development prospects in the developin, orld to -e /ndermined or

constrained.C ingh emphasi4ed the Cprinciple of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capabilities between the developed and developing

worldC. his is shorthand for demanding that the ind/strialized co/ntries co/,h /p the -/l8 of the costs for reversin, climatechan,e. inghaddedF C...more and not less development is the best way for developing countries to address themselves to the issue of preserving the environment and

protecting the climate.C his means +ndia will demand special concessions for the developing countries like patent$free technology transfer in respect of Cclean energyC,

and financial assistance, including venture capital funding, to make a transition towards reduced greenhouse gas emissions.C:ith such a stonewalling and negative

approach, +ndia won>t emerge from the *$ meeting smelling of roses,C says


28/31


-/ild are decentralized effectively /ncontrolled and we learned that less than ' percent of China+s coal$fired electricity plants are

even fitted ithordinary s/lf/r dioide control e/ipment. Even for the ones with 9! scrubbers, its an open uestion whether those with the euipmen

actually use it. Some say if America /st sets the eample every-ody else ill follo. !/t a real poll/tant s/lf/r dioide is a fine

indicator of ho ,ood$eample strate,y doesn+t or8 at all. America has -een scr/--in, s/lf/r dioide o/t of smo8estac8s for

more than 20 years -eca/se it+s a real poll/tant -/t China still ref/ses.


29/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment 2(

E3t QD Warming is natural cycle

E3tend Q D Warming is a natural cycle the


30/31

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers Warming/Environment

E3t Q8 =oo *ar gone

Ftend the Jyndman evidence e+re too far ,one to t/rn the tide in the armin, -attle this evidence indicates

that even if ,lo-al emission rates ere c/t to zero today it o/ld still -e h/ndreds of tho/sands of years -efore

armin, ent -ac8 to 7safe9 levels.

"o c/shion left to i,,le o/t of armin, e+re too far ,one

'ratt !!David:etin0ing a @sa8e ,limate? ave we alread% gone too 8ar David Sratt on te atest Gansen et Sato Paer.tt?//www.,limatesos,anada.org/=log/211/2/1&/retin0ingasa8e,limateavewealread%gonetoo8ardavidsrattontelatestansenetsatoaer/

It is ard to argue tat an%ting a=ove te Golo,ene maimum o8 around .F degrees a=ove te reindustrialtemerature3 ,an reserve a sa8e ,limate: and tatwe have already gone too *ar. 7e notion tat 1.F' is asa8e target is out te window: and even 1 degree loo0s li0e an una,,eta=l% ig ris0. ;ASA ,limate ,ie8 9ames Gansensa%s?At ,urrent temeratures: no @,usion le8t to avoid dangerous ,limate ,ange @] even small glo=al

warming a=ove te level o8 te Golo,ene =egins to generate a disroortionate warming on te Antar,ti, andKreenland i,e seets.

We5re to *ar gone sea level changes 'rove we5re already in ra'id *eed(ac% warming'ratt !!David:etin0ing a @sa8e ,limate? ave we alread% gone too 8ar David Sratt on te atest Gansen et Sato Paer.tt?//www.,limatesos,anada.org/=log/211/2/1&/retin0ingasa8e,limateavewealread%gonetoo8ardavidsrattontelatestansenetsatoaer/

@Eart toda% is oised to eerien,e strong amli8%ing olar 8eed=a,0s in resonse to moderate additionalwarming. We are eras alread% a 8ew tents o8 a degree a=ove te Golo,ene maimum: and te s%stem seems to =e in te earl% stages o8 raid,ange. It is widel% ee,tedAr,ti, seai,e will =e totall% lost in summer wit a 8ew %ears to a de,ade or so:eras at less tan 1' or warming . Mer% 8ew s,ientists tin0 Kreenland would =e sta=le in an Ar,ti, wit littleor no summer seai,e: and oinion is slit as to weterit is ast its tiing oint alread%.

M$R Inevita(le can5t solve *or glo(al warming it is going to continue *or the ne3t !000 yearsoloman et al 200Susan: ;-AA s,ientist: De,em=er1$: @Irreversi=le ,limate ,ange due to ,ar=on dioide emissions:tt?//www.nas.org/,ontent/earl%/2(/1/24/412&211$.a=stra,t3

In a rater startling stud%: ;ational -,eani, and Atmoseri, Administration ;-AA3scientists sta8e the claimthat even if it ere possi-le to stop all poll/tants from enterin, the atmosphere from here forard the dama,e ca/sed -y

them is done and ill contin/e to -e done for 1000 years . Stud% autor Susan Solomon and er ,olleagues aint a=lea0 outloo0 8or te 8uture i8 manmade ,limate ,ange is true. Pu=lised in Pro,eedings o8 te ;ationalA,adem% o8 S,ien,essaid tat hile the dama,in, effects of some poll/tants s/ch as methane and nitro/s oide can -ereversed in the short term that isn+t the case ith car-on dioide @C*2 ?. &he a/thors say that C*2 emissions are set to

7irreversi-ly chan,e the planet9 and there is 7no ,oin, -ac8.9 *ceans are c/rrently a-sor-in, m/ch of the planet+s heat as

ell as the ecess C*2 and at some point -oth the heat and C*2 ill -e released into the atmosphere . &hat process ill last

for h/ndreds of yearsa,,ording to Solomon. eople have ima,ined that if e stopped emittin, car-on dioide that theclimate o/ld ,o -ac8 to normal in 100 years or 200 years. Ehat eBre shoin, here is thatBs not ri,ht . ItBs essentially an

irreversi-le chan,e that ill last for more than a tho/sand years.

,on5t (uy their try or die claims) warming is irreversi(le and we can5t contain itoloman et al 50VSusan: ;-AA s,ientist: De,em=er 1$: @Irreversi=le ,limate ,ange due to ,ar=on dioideemissions: tt?//www.nas.org/,ontent/earl%/2(/1/24/412&211$.a=stra,t

It is sometimes imagined that slow 'rocesses such as climate changes 'ose small ris%s on the(asiso8 te assumtion that a choice can always (e made to Huic%ly reduce emissions and 5ig. ".
http://www.climatesoscanada.org/blog/2011/02/17/rethinking-a-safe-climate-have-we-already-gone-too-far-david-spratt-on-the-latest-hansen-et-sato-paper/http://www.climatesoscanada.org/blog/2011/02/17/rethinking-a-safe-climate-have-we-already-gone-too-far-david-spratt-on-the-latest-hansen-et-sato-paper/http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.abstracthttp://www.noaa.gov/http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.abstracthttp://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.abstracthttp://www.climatesoscanada.org/blog/2011/02/17/rethinking-a-safe-climate-have-we-already-gone-too-far-david-spratt-on-the-latest-hansen-et-sato-paper/http://www.climatesoscanada.org/blog/2011/02/17/rethinking-a-safe-climate-have-we-already-gone-too-far-david-spratt-on-the-latest-hansen-et-sato-paper/http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.abstracthttp://www.noaa.gov/http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.abstracthttp://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.abstract


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Illustrative irreversi=le ,limate ,anges as a 8un,tion o8 ea0 ,ar=on dioide rea,ed. Uer3 #est estimate o8ee,ted irreversi=le dr%season re,iitation ,anges 8or te regions sown in 5ig. : as a 8un,tion o8 te ea0,ar=on dioide ,on,entration during te 21st ,entur%. 7e BuasieBuili=rium '-2 ,on,entrations sown,orresond to "X remaining in te long term as dis,ussed in te tet. 7e re,iitation ,ange er degree isderived 8or ea, region as in 5ig. C see also 5ig. S. 7e %ellow =o indi,ates te range o8 re,iitation ,angeo=served during t%i,al maJor regional drougts su, as te dust =owl in ;ort Ameri,a 23. ower3'orresonding irreversi=le glo=al warming =la,0 line3. Also sown is te asso,iated lower limit o8 irreversi=le

sea level rise =e,ause o8 termal eansion onl% =ased uon a range o8 .2 .$ m/b'3: 8rom an assessmenta,ross availa=le models F3. Smaller values =% X3 8or ee,ted warming: re,iitation: and termal sea levelrise would =e o=tained i8 ,limate sensitivit% is smaller tan te =est estimate wile larger values =% FX3

would =e ee,ted 8or te uer end o8 te estimated li0el% range o8 ,limate sensitivit% "(3 tere=% reverse an%arm witin a 8ew %ears or de,ades. We ave sown tat tis assumtion is in,orre,t 8or ,ar=on dioideemissions: =e,ause o8 te longevit% o8 te atmoseri, '-2 ertur=ation and o,ean warming. Irreversi(leclimate changes due to car(on dio3ide emissions have already ta%en 'lace and *uture car(ondio3ide emissions would im'ly *urther irreversi(le e**ects on the 'lanet: wit attendant longlega,ies 8or ,oi,es made =% ,ontemorar% so,iet%. Dis,ount rates used in some estimates o8 e,onomi, tradeo88s assume tat more e88i,ient ,limate mitigation ,an o,,ur in a 8uture ri,er world: =ut negle,t teirreversi=ilit% sown ere. Similarl%: understanding o8 irreversi=ilit% reveals limitations in trading o8greenouse gases on te =asis o8 1%ear estimated ,limate ,anges glo=al warming otentials: KWPs3:

=e,ause tis metri, negle,ts ,ar=on dioides uniBue longterm e88e,ts. In tis aer we ave Buanti8ied owso,ietal de,isions regarding ,ar=on dioide ,on,entrations tat ave alread% o,,urred or ,ould o,,ur in te,oming ,entur% iml% irreversi=le dangers relating to ,limate ,ange 8or some illustrative oulations andregions. 7ese and oter dangers ose su=stantial ,allenges to umanit% and nature: wit a magnitude tat isdire,tl% lin0ed to te ea0 level o8 ,ar=on dioide rea,ed.

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