advertising did not win the elections (again)
DESCRIPTION
English summary of an article published in French on Belgian Federal Elections in 2010. My feeling is that it is not outdated.TRANSCRIPT
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Advertising did not win the elections (again)
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2003 2007 2010
0.88
1.06
1.29
€ per vote North
2003 2007 2010
0.470.32
0.44
€ per vote South
Source: CIM-MDB for media value, official results of Federal votes http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results
Media advertising value 3 times higher in the Flemish part
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1 voters out of 8 (12%) decides when in situation “in het stemhoekje zelf”
More than 1/3 (37%) only make their mind during the week of the vote
Source: http://politics.indigov.be/files/postelectoraalonderzoek_deel1.pdf
Cause or consequence ?
Late decision is frequent in Flanders
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Why bother with ad investments ?
Classic in advertising:
Share of Voice (contacts with the brand communication related to the total ad contacts in the category) should equate Share of Market (brand value or volume relative to the total category)
Even better :
Share of Voice (SOV) higher than Share of Market (SOM) =
validated recipe for further success(1 more point SOM for every 10 points
excess SOV)Les BINET et Peter FIELD, Marketing in the era of accountability, London, World Advertising Research Center, 2007, p. 44Peter FIELD « Marketing in a downturn : lessons from the past », Market Leader n°42 Autumn 2008, pp.30-31.
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Does the principle apply in Belgian politics ?
The case of the 3 last federal elections, for the Senate (= broad vote districts)
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North 2010: the winner in votes not the most visible in [media] advertising
Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €N-VA 31,7 13,3 0,54CD&V 16,1 16,6 1,33sp.a 15,3 20,0 1,69Open Vld 13,3 26,7 2,59Vlaams Belang 12,3 7,3 0,77GROEN! 6,3 10,2 2,10Lijst Dedecker 3,3 5,3 2,11PVDA+ 1,3 0,1 0,07LSP 0,2CAP 0,2
Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
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North 2007: Open VLD should have been the winner
Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €CD&V NVA 31,4 14,0 0,47Open Vld 20,1 48,7 2,57Vlaams Belang 19,2 2,0 0,11sp.a 16,2 22,3 1,46GROEN! 5,9 5,3 0,96Lijst Dedecker 5,5 6,1 1,19PVDA+ 0,8CAP 0,3NEE 0,3Stijn 0,3
Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
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North 2003: at that time, N-VA did invest much
Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €sp.a 24,9 17,1 0,60Open Vld 24,7 30,8 1,09CD&V 20,4 26,9 1,15Vlaams Belang 18,2 1,1 0,05N-VA 4,9 14,0 2,50GROEN! 4,0 10,1 2,24LSP 0,2Lijst Dedecker 0PVDA+
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Another source confirms N-VA votes in 2010 were the « most cost-effective »
Open-VLD
LDD
CD&V
Vlaams Belang
Groen!
SP.A
N-VA
2.67
2.58
2.26
2.06
1.87
1.87
0.70
€ per vote 2010 *
* Sum of all votes (Chamber+Senate) to total expenses Source: http://static.tijd.be/upload/nota_Maddens_2748288-114497.pdf
It also confirms Open VLD as heaviest investor relatively to its voters’ base.
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South 2010: like in Flanders, no correlationbetween media pressure and share of votes
% votes % media value Media value per vote €PS 35,7 13,4 0,18MR 24,3 36,4 0,66Ecolo 14,3 8,7 0,27CDH 13,5 41,2 1,34Parti Populaire 4,0 0,2 0,02WALLONIE D'ABORD 2,5PTB+ 2,1R.W.F. 1,6Front des gauches 1,1VIVANT 0,6MSplus 0,2
Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
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South 2007: MR leader in vote and #2 in « share of voice »
% votes % media value Media value per vote €MR 32,2 34,5 0,34PS 26,8 23,2 0,28CDH 15,5 39,0 0,81Ecolo 15,2 3,4 0,07FN 5,9R.W.F. 1,3PTB+ 0,8PC 0,8FORCE NATIONALE 0,6CDF 0,5
Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
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South 2003: PS gets the most votes compared to its media value
Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €PS 34,0 24,5 0,34MR 32,1 37,7 0,55CDH 14,6 25,6 0,82Ecolo 8,4 8,1 0,45FN 5,9VIVANT 1,5CDF 1,5 3,6 1,07R.W.F. 1,1PTB+ 0,8
Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB
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Too bad ! No correlation between SOV and SOM
in politics…
Surprise ?
At least 2 reasons for “failing” paid mediaadvertising success
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Reason # 1
Advertising more effectivein low involvement makets
where repetition is key
Politics is normally a high involvement universe
with selective perception or perceptive defenseto diverging opinions
Advertising may only be effective on « late decision-makers » or low commitment
votersJean-Noël KAPFERER Les chemins de la Persuasion. Le mode d’influence des media et de la publicité sur les comportements, Paris Dunod, coll. « Dunod Entreprise », 1986, p. 340 (ao)
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Reason # 2 Low sync between media used/allowedfor advertising for parties
and media that influence people’s votes
Main sources for opinion making:
news bulletins, debates, political programmes…
Mainly audio-visual mediaPrint ranked lower
Source : http://www.indigov.be/attachments/1279094718682/mail.html
Media used for paid advertising: mainly print except Vlaams Belang (Outdoor 45% of value) and CDH (18% Web)
News-papers
76%
Mag-azines12%
Free local press
6%Internet1%
Outdoor5%
Source : CIM MDB 2010. National
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Although not salient in paid media,
some parties *did attract large audiences
* at least one of them….
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Visibility on the Internet
Total « visitors » on n-va.be reached 80 k during the last elections month.
Only website of a political party to reach the Comscore publication threshold at that time !
Jun-2009
Aug-2009
Oct-2009
Dec-2009
Feb-2010
Apr-2010
Jun-20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Monthly visitors Website
Comscore = user centric panel also on Belgium. Reported sample size = 10,000 people
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Frequency of search queries
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Frequency of search queries: party or celebrity ?
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Media after all…
… but not only paid media advertising
If media did help win the federal elections
It is definitely not advertising in the media
Because winners were not the heaviest investors (as in 2003 and 2007)
N-VA (and PS ?) probably did stand out in the relevant media and at the right moments
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Media after all…
So maybe the « good old » share of voice/share of market ratio actually applies…
… but see it as a share of voice in all media:maybe the paid-for ones, but definitely also your own
contact points (Website, Facebook pages,…) and the earned media [editorial]
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As a conclusion
Like it or not, paid media advertising only does not win the elections
Media definitely matter, but as a broad aggregate of editorial (earned), owned souding boards and probably
conversation. In this respect, the best possible role of paid media advertising is accelerating the process.
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"La publicité n'a -de nouveau- pas gagné les élections" in Médiatiques n°47UCL- Observatoire du Récit Médiatique December 2010
Thank you !!
More [in French]: