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Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture

Federal Reserve Bank of New York 10th Floor, Paul Volcker Boardroom

Monday, August 6, 2018 AGENDA 10:30am Welcome and Review of Council Charter & Antitrust Guidelines,

Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President

10:40am-11:00am The National Economy, Richard Peach, Senior Vice President

11:00am-11:20am International Update, Matthew Higgins, Vice President

11:20am-11:40am Regional Update, Jason Bram, Officer

11:40am-12:00pm 12:00pm 12:15pm 12:15pm-1:55pm

Facilitated Discussion, Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President Adjourn to NWC Room-10F Lunch Round Table Discussion with John Williams, President and Michael Strine, First Vice President Introductory Remarks and Welcome from President Williams Group Discussion

Your experiences provide insight into current economic conditions. In considering each question, please reflect on the experiences of your firm, firms of similar size, and firms in your industry. Please provide a rationale for each answer. Sales Have sales volumes increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? What are your expectations for the second half of 2018? Investment Has investment (e.g. plant, equipment, technology) increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? What are your expectations for the second half of 2018?

Employment Has employment increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? Have you faced any recent labor shortages that have limited the ability to meet demand? Please explain. What are your employment expectations in the second half of 2018?


Federal Reserve Bank of New York 10th Floor, Paul Volcker Boardroom

Monday, August 6, 2018 Prices Have input prices increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? What are your expectations for the second half of 2018? Have prices of products/services sold increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? Do you expect prices of products/services sold to increase in the second half of 2018? Financing Conditions Over the past two quarters, please describe financing conditions for firms of your size and in your industry. How have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed (tightened, eased, not changed)?

Outlook What is the most significant business opportunity you see in 2018? What is the chief growth barrier or concern facing your firm in 2018? Concluding Remarks from President Williams

2:00 pm Adjourn


Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Monday, August 6, 2018

ATTENDEE LIST Council Members Donnel Baird Founder & CEO BlocPower Adenah Bayoh Founder Adenah Bayoh & Companies Kevin Ellis CEO Cayuga Milk Ingredients Gabriel Hernández Co-Founder and Head of Tax Division BDO Puerto Rico

Sarah LaFleur Founder & CEO MM.LaFleur Ranjini Poddar Founder & CEO Artech Information Systems, LLC Waleska Rivera President Danosa Caribbean, Inc.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

John Williams Michael Strine Jack Gutt Kausar Hamdani Richard Peach Matthew Higgins Sandra Lee Anand Marri Claire Kramer Mills Rosanne Notaro Jason Bram Edison Reyes

President First Vice President EVP, Communications & Outreach SVP, Communications & Outreach SVP, Research & Statistics VP, Integrated Policy Analysis VP, Executive Office VP, Outreach & Education AVP, Outreach & Education AVP, Legal Officer, Research & Statistics Associate, Outreach & Education

The views expressed here are those of the presented and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

US Macro Overview Richard Peach, Senior Vice President

Presented to Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture August 6, 2018

-5-4-3-2-10123456

-5-4-3-2-10123456

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Growth of Real GDP Four Quarter Percent Change Four Quarter Percent Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

2

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Real PCE and the Personal Saving Rate 12 Month % Change %

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

(left axis)

Personal Saving Rate (right axis)

3

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1980 1990 2000 2010

Household Liabilities over Disposable Income Ratio

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.


Ratio

4

Single Family Housing Market

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

020406080

100120140160180200220

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Index Level Months

Source: CoreLogic, National Association of Realtors, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Single Family House Price Index

(Left Axis)

Months’ Supply

(Right Axis)

5

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018

Housing Starts and Existing Homes Sales Per Capita Units Units

Source: BLS, Census Bureau, NAR


Housing Starts

Existing Home Sales

.0178 (average over 1968-2003)

.009 (average over 1968-2003)

6

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Business Fixed Investment Four Quarter Percent Change Four Quarter Percent Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis


7

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Manufacturers’ New Orders of Nondefense Capital Goods Millions of Dollars

Source: Census Bureau; Haver Analytics.


Nondefense Capital

Goods ex. Aircraft

(Left Axis)

Nondefense Capital Goods

(Right Axis)

Millions of Dollars

8

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

4 Quarter % Change 4 Quarter % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Federal

State and Local

Real Government Consumption and Gross Investment

9

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Real Imports and Exports 4-Quarter Percent Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.


Imports (Left Axis)

Exports (Right Axis)

4-Quarter Percent Change

10

30

40

50

60

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

12 Month % Change Index

Source: Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

ISM Manufacturing Index

(Right Axis)

Industrial Production: Manufacturing

(Left Axis)

Manufacturing and ISM Manufacturing Index

11

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Labor Market Indicators Percent Percent


Unemployment Rate (Left Axis)

Labor Force Participation Rate

(Right Axis)

Employment to Population Ratio

(Right Axis)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Payroll Employment and Aggregate Hours 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change


Payroll Employment

Aggregate Hours


13

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Openings/Unemployed and Quits/Separations Percent Fraction

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Quits/Separations (Left Axis)

Job Openings/Unemployed (Right Axis)

14

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Annual % change Annual % change



Average Hourly Earnings

Employment Cost Index:

Private Sector Wages & Salaries

Growth of Average Hourly Earnings and ECI

15

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.

Core PCE Deflator

FOMC Objective for Headline PCE Inflation

Measure of Underlying PCE Price Inflation

16

-1.2-0.8-0.400.40.81.21.622.42.83.2

-1.2-0.8-0.4

00.40.81.21.6

22.42.83.2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Core PCE Deflator Inflation 12-Mo % Change

Source: BEA; Haver Analytics.

Core

Goods excl. Food & Energy

Services excl. Energy

12-Mo % Change

17

1

Global Economic Outlook

Small Business and Agricultural Advisory Council Matthew Higgins, 6 August 2018

The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System

Roadmap

Update on the global economic and industrial cycle

Inflation and labor market trends in the advanced economies

Implications of recent U.S. tariff measures

China’s development and policy challenges

2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

China

Percent SAAR

Other EMEs

Advanced Economies ex. U.S.

Sources: national sources, staff calculations. Q2 growth rates for most foreign economies reflect staff estimates.

Global GDP Growth

1.7

2.7

6.1

2nd quarter

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Percent SAAR

Global GDP Growth and Composite PMI

GDP Growth

Composite PMI

Correlation = 0.83

Sources: national sources, Markit Economics

July

Diffusion Index

3

47.5

50.0

52.5

55.0

57.5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Diffusion Index

Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs

Source: Markit Economics.

52.7

July

54.0

Services

Manufacturing

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

01-17 04-17 07-17 10-17 01-18 04-18 07-18

Percent positive or negative*

Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes

Advanced Economies

Emerging Economies

*Weighted by series’ historical FX impact

4

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Percent, CY/CY

Evolution of Global Market Growth Forecasts

20142013

2015

2012

Sources: Blue Chip Economics, Consensus Economics. Figures are GDP-weighted averages for five AEs (counting the euro area as one economy) and 25 EMEs.

2016

2017 20182019

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Percent change from year ago

G-3: Core Consumer Price Inflation

Japan

United States

Euro Area

Sources: BEA, Eurostat, BoJ. U.S. inflation measured using the PCE index.

1.9

1.1

0.2

5

2

4

6

8

10

12

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Percent change from year ago

G-3 Unemployment Rates

Japan

United States

Euro Area

Sources: BLS, CBO, Eurostat, BoJ.

Official NAIRU estimates

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Percent active, ages 25-54

Male Prime-Age (25-54) Labor Force Participation

Japan

United States

Euro Area

Sources: OECD, BLS.

95.6

88.9

91.5

6

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19


Female Prime-Age (25-54) Labor Force Participation

JapanUnited States

Euro Area

Sources: OECD, BLS.

78.7

75.3

79.7

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19


Mature Adult (55-64) Labor Force Participation

Japan

United States

Euro Area

Sources: OECD, BLS.

77.1

65.0

62.3

7

47.5

50.0

52.5

55.0

57.5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Diffusion Index

Manufacturing New Orders

Source: Markit Economics, JPMorgan.

52.5

July

50.3

New Export Orders

New Orders

Recent U.S. Tariff Measures

Product Rate

Value affected

($ bn)

Share of U.S.

imports

Enacted

Steel 25% 29 1.2%

Aluminum 10% 23 1.0%

Various 25% 50 2.1%

Proposed

Various 10% 200 8.5%

Source: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

8

Capital goods29%

Intermediate goods47%

Others1%

Consumer goods23%

Notes: Based on July 10 list. Harmonized System [HS] 8-digit tariff code is converted to Broad Economic Categories (BEC) code, using the correspondence table at https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/classifications/correspondence-tables.asp.

Sources: United States International Trade Commission (USITC) Dataweb. Others include BEC 7 (Health, pharmaceuticals, education, cultural, sport), 12 and 32 (services in food and beverages, and services in construction, wood, glass, stone, metals, housing and furnitures) and HS codes that have no match with BEC code.

Total = $197 bn

U.S. imports from China subject to Section 301 tariffs by type $U.S. bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Percent at purchasing power parity

Real GDP per Capita Relative to United States

China

Brazil

Korea

Sources: Penn World Tables, IMF World Economic Outlook database.

Turkey

9

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

Percent of GDP

Credit to Private Nonfinancial Sector

Other EMEs

China

Sources: OECD, BLS.

Advanced Economies

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Percent change from a year earlier

China: Total Financing Growth

Sources: CEIC, PBoC, Moody’s.

Adjusted for local gov’t bond swaps

Reported TSF

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Percent change from a year earlier

China: Fixed Asset Investment

Source: Monthly index computed from official year-year year-to-date changes. Real series deflated by linearly interpolated quarterly FAI price series.

Real

Nominal

Regional Economic Conditions Jason Bram, Research Officer

Small Business & Agriculture Advisory Group Meeting – August 6, 2018

The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to June 2018

AL

Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.

AK FL

HI

PR

AZ AR

CA CO

CT NJ DE MD

GA

ID

IL IN

IA

KS KY

LA

ME

VT NH MA RI MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE NV

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

1

Recent Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of June 2018

AL

Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2%


AK FL

HI

PR

AZ AR

CA CO

CT NJ DE MD

GA

ID

IL IN

IA

KS KY

LA

ME

VT NH MA RI MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE NV

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

2

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions Diffusion Index

60

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

2007 2008 2009

Shading indicates NBER recession

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Business Leaders Survey

Current Economic Conditions

Jul

3

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Business Leaders Survey

Future Economic Conditions FRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead

Diffusion Index

Jul

4

9,275

9,400

9,525

9,650

9,775

Jan16 |

Jul16 |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 |

Early Benchmark

Estimate

Official BLS

Estimate 4,275

4,350

4,425

4,500

4,575

Jan16 |

Jul16 |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 |

2,285

2,300

2,315

2,330

2,345

Jan16 |

Jul16 |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 | 4,025

4,075

4,125

4,175

4,225

Jan16 |

Jul16 |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 |

Total Employment in Thousands, Jun 2018 (QCEW Q42017)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations.

FRBNY Early Employment Benchmark

New York State

Upstate NY

New York City

New Jersey

5

458

462

466

470

474

Jan16 |

Jul16

Official BLS

Estimate |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 |

Early Benchmark

Estimate

525

530

535

540

545

Jan16 |

Jul16 |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 |

313

316

319

322

325

Jan16 |

Jul16 |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 | 556

560

564

568

572

Jan16 |

Jul16 |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 |




Syracuse

Albany Rochester

Buffalo

6

825

850

875

900

925

Jan16 |

Jul16 |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 |

Early Benchmark

Estimate Official

BLS Estimate

33

35

37

39

41

Jan16 |

Jul16 |

Jan17 |

Jul17 |

Jan18 |

Jul18 |




U.S. Virgin Islands Puerto Rico

7

80

85

90

95

100

105

115 110

120

2007 2008 2009 2019

Total Employment


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New York

New York City

United States

New Jersey

Puerto Rico

Seasonally Adjusted Index

Jun

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.

Index (Dec2007=100)

8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990


1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

New York State

New York City

United States

New Jersey

Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted

Jun


Percent

9

55

60

65

70

1990


1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

New York State New York City

United States New Jersey

Labor Force Participation Seasonally Adjusted

Jun


Percent

10

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

United States

Albany

Rochester

Upstate NY

Buffalo

Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted

Index (Mar2006=100) 160

Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).

May

11

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Index (Mar2006=100) 120



2010 2011 2012 2013

United States

NYC Metro

Fairfield

Westchester

Rockland

May

12

New Jersey

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006 2007 2008 2009


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Suffolk United States

Nassau Queens

Manhattan


Index (Mar2006=100) 180


Kings

May

13

Update on Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands

• Irma & Maria caused substantial damage and disruption: – Widespread damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, crops, etc.

– More than 1,000 lost lives, attributable to the storms, in Puerto Rico.

– Puerto Rico’s power outage has been the biggest, by far, in US history.

• How is the recovery proceeding? – How severe were job losses and how much of a rebound have we seen?

– What industries were most affected in both areas?

– How many people left following the storms?

– What can satellite imagery of nighttime lights tell us about the persistence and geographic breadth of the disruption?

14

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30Months Before/After Hurricane

Employment Paths After Hurricanes Index (Month Before Hurricane = 100), Seasonally Adjusted

US Virgin Islands (Irma/Maria – Sep. 2017)

US Virgin Islands (Marilyn – Sep. 1995)

US Virgin Islands (Hugo – Sep. 1989)

New Orleans Metro (Katrina – Aug. 2005)

Puerto Rico (Maria – Sep. 2017)

15

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's economy.com Data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff

200

207

214

221

228

235

242

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18

Puerto Rico: Recent Employment Trends Thousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted

Government (right scale)

Private Sector (left scale)

16

10.0

10.2

10.4

10.6

10.8

11.0

11.2

11.4

11.6

11.8

12.0

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18

Government (right scale)

Private Sector (left scale)

US Virgin Islands: Recent Employment Trends Thousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted

17

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18

Puerto Rico Job Shortfall by Sector Since Maria Thousands of Jobs lost since Aug. 2017 (Before Maria), S.A.

Leisure & Hospitality

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Education & Health Govt.

All Other Private

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's economy.com, FRBNY Staff Calculations Data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff

Net Job Shortfall (June): 20,000 or 2.3%

18

Net Job Shortfall (June): 3,500

or 9.0%

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18

USVI Job Shortfall by Sector Since Maria Thousands of Jobs lost since Aug. 2017 (Before Maria), S.A.

Leisure & Hospitality

Retail Trade

Education & Health

Govt.

All Other Private

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's economy.com, FRBNY Staff Calculations Data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff

19

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Sep.

Dec.

Oct. For the 12 months ending in April, 165,000 more people flew out of than into Puerto Rico—

about 105,000 above trend.

Apr

Net Domestic Air Passengers to (from) Puerto Rico 12-Month Rolling Sum

20 Note: Airports are Luis Munoz Marin Intl Airport in San Juan, Mercedita Intl Airport in Ponce, and Rafael Hernandez Intl Airport in Aguadilla . Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and FRBNY staff calculations.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18

2017-2018 Monthly FlowsUsual Monthly Flows

Gross Domestic Air Passengers to Puerto Rico

21 Note: Airports are Luis Munoz Marin Intl Airport in San Juan, Mercedita Intl Airport in Ponce, and Rafael Hernandez Intl Airport in Aguadilla. Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and FRBNY staff calculations.

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Sep.

Dec.

Oct. For the 12 months ending in

April, 13,000 more people flew out of than into the US Virgin Islands.

Apr

Net Domestic Air Passengers to (from) USVI 12-Month Rolling Sum

22 Note: Airports are Cyril E King Airport in St. Thomas and Henry E Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix. Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and FRBNY staff calculations.

23

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18

2017-2018 Monthly FlowsUsual Monthly Flows

Gross Domestic Air Passengers to US Virgin Islands

Note: Airports are Cyril E King Airport in St. Thomas and Henry E Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix. Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and FRBNY staff calculations.

Regional Recap • New York City remains the leader in job growth in the region.

• Areas adjacent to NYC have also seen fairly strong growth, while most of upstate NY has seen little or no job growth.

• Northern NJ has remains on a modest growth trajectory.

• Housing markets remain fairly robust in New York City and parts of upstate New York.

• Puerto Rico’s economy, though still weak, appears to have rebounded much of the way from hurricanes Irma & Maria.

• In contrast, the Virgin Islands’ economy has lagged—in part due to its high dependence on tourism.

24

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