NEXTNOMICS Economic, Strategy and Development Advisory

Who We Are About Us: NEXTNOMICS provides integrated economic, strategy and development advisory services to private and public sectors in Nigeria and the rest of middle Africa. Insights: We apply economics insights, information and ideas to public policy, business and development issues recognizing the interaction and interface of markets, institutions, strategies, and policies. Our Vision: Middle Africa’s premier integrated economic, business, and development advisory firm. Our Mission: Enabling businesses and governments with economic advisory services for the transformation of enterprises and economies in Nigeria and Middle Africa. Our Core Values: Professionalism Passion Integrity Reliability

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KEY OBJECTIVES TO:

• Government: Inform and influence policy decision makers in governments with the insights on which to shape policy and strategic decisions using primarily economics and management analytical tools.

• Business: Combine a deep and rigorous business analytics with a real world practical understanding of commercial organizations to help private sector clients design strategy and make optimal decisions to keep ahead of the competition.

• Development Partners: Fostering inclusiveness and sustainable development by providing capacity and capital advisory services and solutions to development partners promoting shared prosperity.

NEXTNOMICS Unique Service Offerings

Our services are anchored on unique expertise:

• Economics: Tailored macroeconomics and industry briefings and insights on country and global events and their impacts on businesses

• Strategy: Business intelligence and executive engagement on competition, strategy, scenarios, market scoping, and feasibility studies

• Policy: Expert advice and testimony to support public sector in designing and implementing institutions, policies and regulations

• Inclusiveness: Assistance to development partners in the design, execution, monitoring and evaluation of programs and projects

• Partnership: Strategic local experience and partnerships with international business, development, and economics consultancies

Unique Expertise

Specific Industry Focus

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Anchored on: • Unrivalled expert analysis based on economic principles and global practices; •Applying unparralleled local experience and evidence; •engaging stakeholders on insights drawn from expertise and experience; and

•execution based on integrated solutions for transformative business and development outcomes.

• Dr. Temitope Oshikoya, Founder, CEO/Chief Economic Strategist, Nextnomics is a seasoned economist, policy analyst,

chartered banker, and certified management accountant. With over two decades of experience in senior management spanning several sectors, he has held several notable positions in private sector, public sector, consulting, academia, at national and international levels. He served as Director-General/CEO of the West African Monetary Institute, appointed by the Authority of Heads of States of Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, and The Gambia; and worked with governors of Central Banks and Ministers of Finance. He has served as Group Head of Public Sector at Ecobank Transnational Incorporated covering 35 African countries, and a $2.5 billion business; pioneer Chief Economist at Africa Finance Corporation; a Director at the African Development Bank, and a consultant to the World Bank. Temitope has also served on the Board of Directors of several organizations in Africa including ARM Securities, East African Development Bank and African Capacity Building Foundation; and as First Vice President and member of the Governing Council of Nigerian Economic Society.

• He is a widely published leader of thought in his field with over 50 published articles and 2 books and also having served on editorial boards of professional journals including the Journal of African Economies, Journal of African Finance and as Editor of the African Development Review. He served as Joint Coordinator of African Competitiveness Report of ADB, World Economic Forum, and World Bank; and of African Economic Outlook of ADB, OECD, and UNECA. His Op-ed and commentaries have appeared in The Guardian, This Day, Business Day, and The Banker of Financial Times.

• He holds PhD/MA in Economics from McMaster University, Ontario; MBA, Finance from the University of Liverpool; a B.Sc. first class honour degree in Economics from Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria; and an Accounting certificate from the University of California, Los Angeles extension program. He is a fellow of the Chartered Institute of Bankers (FCIB), England and Nigeria; and member, Institute of Certified Management Accountants (CMA), USA. He has professional training in Competitive Strategy at INSEAD, Risk Management and Corporate Governance at United Nations Institute of Training/Research, Banking Valuation, Corporate Finance and IFRS with Euro-Money.

NEXTNOMICS Unparalleled Experience Founder/CEO

Mr. Kehinde Durosinmi-Etti (ACCA, B.Sc.) is currently the Chief Executive Officer of Variant Advisory, which provides financial transaction and business

strategy solutions to clients. He served as the Chief Executive Officer and Group Managing Director of Skye Bank Plc from August, 2010 to July, 2014. He also served as the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of EIB International Bank Plc, Midas Merchant Bank, and Lagos Building Investment Co. Limited. Heis a fellow of the Chartered Association of Certified Accountants (ACCA), United Kingdom and holds a Bachelors Degree in Economics from the University of Ibadan.

Professor Osita Ogbu (PhD, M.A., OON), a former Chief Economic Adviser to the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and Chief Executive Officer of National Planning Commission, November 2005 to November 2006, has a wealth of economic policy, public sector and international experience. He currently serves as Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of African Development Solutions International (ADSI) and Chairman, Governing Council of Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER). He obtained a BSc Degree in Economics from University of Nigeria, Nsukka; and an M.A and Ph.D. Degrees in Economics from Howard University, Washington DC, USA.

Deji Alli (CMA, B.Sc., MFR) is the Founder, CEO and Managing Director of Asset & Resource Management Co Ltd ("ARM"), a diversified financial services group with subsidiaries in asset management, investment, pensions, private equity, properties, real estate, and infrastructure financing. Since founding ARM in 1994, he has managed the firm to becoming one of Nigeria's largest and most prominent asset management companies with total assets of over US $3 billion under management. His prior work experience includes six years in the asset management business with Prudential Portfolio Managers Limited, UK, following which he joined the African Development Bank (ADB) where he was a member of the team responsible for managing the institution's US$8 billion Debt Portfolio. Deji has a post-graduate degree in Finance from the University of Lagos; and is an Associate member of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants.

Mr. Rotimi Olugbohungbe (FCA, M.Sc., ACIT, CISA) is the Chief Executive Officer of Counterhouse Consultants Limited, a multi-solution consulting company, with over twenty years working experience spanning banking, audit, tax, consulting, accounting, IT and training. He has served as a Consultant to the World Bank on economic reforms and on the Investment Climate Program (ICP) team for Nigeria; and to DFID on tax reforms for sub- Saharan Africa. A Fellow of the Institute of the Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), he obtained a B.Sc. Accountancy degree from University of Nigeria, Nsukka and Masters Degree in Computer and Information Science from Lead City University, Ibadan. He is also a member of Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria, Association of Certified Fraud Examiner, Information Systems Audit and Controls Association (ISACA).

Mr. Ejeviome Eloho Otobo (M.P.A., B.Sc.) is a non-Resident Senior Fellow on Global Economy, Peace and Security at the Global Governance Institute (GGI), based in Brussels, Belgium. He was previously the Director and Deputy Head of the Peace Building Support Office (PBSO) at the United Nations (UN) Headquarters in New York. He served as Deputy Director for Policy Analysis and Monitoring in the Office of the Special Adviser on Africa (OSAA) at the UN and served ex-officio secretary to the UN Secretary-Generals Advisory Panel on International Support to NEPAD. Mr. Otobo had a distinguished career the Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and was appointed Ambassador-in-situ. He has been a guest lecturer at the New School University, New York; Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs; and the University of California, Berkeley. Mr. Otobo holds a BA in Sociology from the University of Lagos, and an MA in Public Administration from the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

NEXTNOMICS Unrivaled Partners Senior Advisory Partners

Shared Prosperity: Algeria versus Nigeria

*Temitope Oshikoya

“Regardless of how fast GDP grows, an economic system that fails to deliver gains for most of its citizens, and in

which a rising share of the population faces increasing insecurity is, in a fundamental sense, a failed economic

system. And policies, like austerity, that increase insecurity and lead to lower incomes and standards of living for

large proportion of the population are, in a fundamental sense, flawed policies.” Joseph E. Stiglitz, Economics Nobel

Prize winner and former Chief Economist of the World Bank, in The Age of Vulnerability, Project Syndicate, Oct. 13,

2014.

Algeria and Nigeria have a lot in common. Both are well-endowed in terms of geography, geology, and demography. Algeria has a total land area of 2.38 million sq km, more than twice Nigeria’s total land area; although Nigeria’s arable land use is 39% of its total compared to Algeria’s 3.2%, as much of it is desert. Both have extensive coast lines, while Nigeria’s water resources are more than twenty times that of Algeria. Nigeria’s population estimated at over 170 million people is more than four times that of Algeria at 38.8 million. Both countries have young population, with two out of three Nigerians below the age of twenty four years, while nearly half of all Algerians are below that age bracket (CIA, World Fact Book).

Best Practices in Central Banking

Temitope Oshikoya**

As the tidal wave of commentaries on the controversial Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

ebbs, we can begin to soberly reflect on the economic principles underlying the mandate, functions,

governance structure, independence and accountability in central banking. This article examines

some of these key issues drawing from economic literature, global practices, with the objective of

contextualizing central banking in Nigeria. The article also draws from my experience of having

headed an international organization, which worked with Governors of Central Bank in West Africa,

as well as having interacted with some peers and colleagues, who are Governors and Deputy

Governors of Central Bank in Eastern and Southern Africa.

SANE as Africa’s Growth Poles

By Temitope Oshikoya

MINT—Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey—economies have been dubbed as the next

frontiers of rapid economic growth by Jim O’Neill, previously with Goldman Sachs. However,

as this neologism becomes fashionable, we should note that there has been SANE---comprising

South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, and Egypt---meant essentially to galvanize Africa’s economic

renaissance, competitiveness, and integration into the global economy.

The SANE was first coined by me in an article which appeared in Africa Business of February,

2007 and in the African Competitiveness Report of the same year, published jointly by African

Development Bank, World Economic Forum, and World Bank. Since that first article, the

concept of SANE has been used much more by research scholars focusing on regional economic

and financial integration.

How not to manage the economy

Tuesday, 06 January 2015 00:00

Written by Temitope Oshikoya

“It is the Economy, stupid! “James Carville, President Bill Clinton’s Strategist. “It is

those who have no answers to the central question of the political economy who divert

attention by their inflammable recourse to religion and ethnicity.” Kayode Komolafe in

Now is the Time for the Big Issues, This Day, December 17, 2014

THE merchants of misery (MOM) are afraid of discourse on the worsening economic

facts and issues. It is the wobbling re-based economy which has suffered a hair cut of

$50 billion, stupid. It is the value of the Naira, which will hit N200 to $1 soon. It is the

stock market which has declined by almost one-third. It is the dwindling foreign

reserves of $35 billion, when it should be 4 times at about $135 judging by the

experience of Algeria and Angola over the past eight years. It is the inter-bank

borrowing rate, which shot to over 70% recently. It is the one-year Treasury bills true

yield now at 19%. It is the increasing real borrowing cost of over 20% for local

businesses. It is the rising and high misery index of 50, the third highest among 90

countries. It is the rising and high inequality, with nearly one-third of Nigeria’s wealth in

the hands of 15,705 people, less than 0.01% of the population. It is 100 million people

living below the poverty line. It is the high unemployment of 50% among the youth,

who are left at the bottom of the pyramid.

UNCOMMON INSIGTHS

Microeconomics of Banking and High Lending Rates

By Temitope Oshikoya*

Introduction

It has generally been observed that lending rates in Nigeria are very high. Maximum lending

rates to productive sectors of agriculture and manufacturing, in particular, small and

medium enterprises (SMEs), are as high as 30%. The issue of high lending rates has been a

subject of much public discussion especially in the context of macroeconomic and monetary

policy.

This article brings a perspective relying on the microeconomics of banking, micro-

foundations of finance and financial economics and their implications for bank behavior to

the public discourse on high lending rates. The article also draws from expertise as an

economist and a chartered banker with hands-on banking experience, and high level policy

exposure, having interacted with governors of central banks of several African countries.

The Central Bank’s capitulation By Temitope Oshikoya “The CBN has adopted a number of monetary policy frameworks over the years in response to the changing macroeconomic conditions. Due to monetary policy lags (time of policy initiation, time of policy implementation and the eventual outcome), the CBN has moved from a short-term monetary policy framework to medium-term monetary policy framework.” Understanding Monetary Policy Series No. 3, 2011, the CBN.

In response to the realized and expected shocks to the Nigerian economy, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in the Communiqué No.98 of its meeting of 24-25 November, 2014, puts in place drastic measures. It raises Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 12 per cent to 13 per cent, increases private sector’s Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) from 15% to 20%; and devalues the official exchange rate of the naira from N155 to N168 per US$1. Extraordinary measures for extraordinary times. Such times put frameworks under enormous pressures, and could lead to capitulation and adoption of panicky measures. At such times, the test of credibility is not to lose sight of institutional frameworks geared towards achieving medium to long term objectives for the welfare of Nigerians. The measures taken by the MPC of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are best examined within the context of its institutional monetary policy framework and objectives. In its “Understanding monetary policy,” document of 2011, the CBN states that its monetary policy is based on four main pillars: inflation as a monetary phenomenon, inflation targeting to anchor public expectations of future inflation, pro-active rule based monetary policy, and CBN’s independence.

WEFA and the imperatives of a developmental state Temitope Oshikoya

The World Economic Forum in Africa (WEFA) held in Abuja had come and gone. The convening power of

WEFA was amply demonstrated in Abuja. Over 1,000 participants descended on the political capital city

of Nigeria from 7 to 9 May, 2014. There were Presidents (17 Heads of Government and State) and

Ministers, Captains of Industries and Bankers, rich billionaires and young entrepreneurs, academicians

and civil societies, and global media moderators.

Many participants and observers may see the WEFA in Abuja as a Forum simply for networking, wheeling

and dealings; after all, $68 billion of worth of deals were announced. From the prism of an economist,

however, the most significant insight of the various sessions, themes, and discussions is that the WEFA

in Abuja actually reinforces the importance and role of a developmental state in Nigeria and the rest of

Africa. The developmental state imperatives gleaned from WEFA can be summed up in six Is: Inequality,

Insecurity, Incentives, Institutions, and Investment.

State of the union Daniel Maalo | 06/07/2010 12:00 am

Dr Temitope Oshikoya, director-general of WAMI

West Africa's second monetary union project remains years behind its original schedule but recent progress towards

convergence and the accession of a sixth member state have provided it with some much-needed momentum. Writer

Daniel Maalo

The Unholy Trinity and Nigeria’s Misery Index

By Temitope Oshikoya

The new Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, outlined his agenda for the CBN on 5th June, 2014. The two key

themes of his speech are essentially, first, managing the unholy or impossible trinity or trilemma in the short term and while, second, tackling the

very high misery index of Nigeria over the longer term. In the near term, most financial analysts are likely to focus more on the first theme,

especially in the light of the achievements of the immediate past Governor Lamido Sanusi on price and exchange rate stability, and the

remarkable dexterity with which the acting Governor Alade had restored calm to the financial markets in the past few months.

UNCOMMON INSIGTHS

Contact Us: Address: NEXTNOMICS, 3rd Floor, Africa Re Building, 1679 Karimu Kotun Street, Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria. Phone: +234 (1) 2705560 Ext. 614 Phone: +234 (0) 703 463 2219 Email: info@nextnomics.com

Web: www.nextnomics.com

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