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© Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company | [email protected] | Tel: +971-2-694 3816 | Fax: +971-2-6425773
Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company www.adwec.ae
Mr Keith Miller Director of Planning and Studies
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity and Water Demand Forecasts
ADWEC Website Presentation
Table of Contents
2
Main purpose of this presentation is to present ADWEC’s latest demand forecasts that were finalised in February 2013.
ADWEC’s demand forecasts will next be updated in February 2014.
Existing 400kV circuits Existing 220kV circuits Existing 132kV circuits ADNOC 132kV circuits
Power Station Sub-Station
ADNOC Oil & Gas Plant EMAL Smelter
Under Construction Planned
Abu Dhabi
Region
Bu Hasa (ADCO Load) 1
09
MW
Status as of 31/12/2013 along with ADNOC, Masdar, ENG, GCC & EMAL interconnection.
3,7
29
MW
18
6 M
W
14
,34
0 M
W Asab
(ADCO Load)
Liwa
Sila
Mirfa Tarif
Dhabiya (ADCO Load)
Ramah
Wagan
Sanaiya
Al Ain
Shahama
Samha
Hayer
Dubai
TOTAL (GROSS MW)
Khazna
4,6
51
MW
2,4
30
MW
Dhayd
Al Oha Dahma
Arad
Mazyad Al Ain SW
E48
Mussaffah
GIC
Central
Rumaitha (ADCO Load)
Liwa West (Eradah)
September 2, 2013
Ghayathi
ONGS (ADCO Load) Bab
(ADCO Load)
ASGS II (ADCO Load)
200 MW
2,9
75
MW
Ajman
Umm Al Quwain
Ras Al Khaimah
Warsan
Taweelah
Qidfa
Sweihan
UAN
Wathba
Bahia
Tawian
Madinat
Zayed
Salamat
Zakher
25
6 M
W
Shamkha
Umm El Oush
EMAL 1,962 MW
Delma
Fujairah
Galailah
Sahil (ADCO Load)
Elixier 2
NGI Plant
(ADCO
Load)
GUP-TAKREER (ADNOC) 664 MW
Sharjah
X
Shah
Hameem
Qusahwira (mobile)
Industrial City
City Center
Hamraniya
Saadiyat Island
Lulu Island
Bahrani Island
Reem Island Al Gurm E19
Mina (ADST)
E48
Taweelah
Khalifa B
Airport UAN
Yas
Bahia
Mahawi
Mina (ADST)
To Shuweihat
GIC
Steel Factories
Mussafah
Industrial
To Central
Airport
Saadiyat
Yas Island
(2011)
(S1)SCIPCO = 1615 MW (S2) RPC = 1627 MW (S3) SAPCO = 1647 MW (S3) - 493 MW in 2013
(B) TAPCO = 2220 MW (A1) GTTPC = 1671 MW (A2) ECPC = 760 MW
(F1) ESWPC= 861 MW (F2) FAPCO = 2114 MW
Khorfakkan
AMPC
APC
Al Ain
Region
Western Region
(Al Gharbia)
Sir Baniyas
Shuweihat
Qusawira (ADCO)
Wasit
Mina Al Saqr
Masafi
Kalba
Dibba
Dhadna
Munay
Hamda
SEWA Network
Sep -12
Sep -12
May -12
Jan-14
Sep-12
Aug -12
Shams1 (Masdar) 100 MW (Oct-12)
Peak time cap-50 MW
May-12
Mussafah Grid
Habshan (ADCO Load)
Khowr Khawer
3
39
MG
D
91
6 M
GD
20
2 M
GD
1600 mm
1400 mm
1200 mm
1000 mm
900 mm
800 mm
600 mm
500 mm
Pumping Station (PS)
Desalination Plant
Proposed PS
Under Construction / Proposed
(NTS) Includes planned extensions as of 29/02/2012, excluding isolated Plants and Al Ain Network.
TOTAL
Abu Dhabi
Region
Dubai
Al Ain Mirfa
Shuweihat
UNIT 5
Shoubaisi Abu Al
Abyad
Tarif
New
Mirfa PS
Madinat Zayed
Liwa
Wagan
Jurf
Sila
PS1
PS2
Sih Shoib
29
7 M
GD
Qidfa
Break
Tanks
Ghayathi
Adla
September 2, 2013
UNIT 3
Sweihan UAN
Al-Saad
Ajban
Taweelah
Sharjah
Jazirat Al-
Hamra
Ramah
Al-Maha
Forests
14
5 M
GD
Abu Dhabi (AD) Island
UAN
LULU
ISLAND REEM ISLAND
N-4927
Apr 2012
N-5807
N-4268
N-4381
Nov 2012
Bani
Yass
Mussaffah
Samha
Abu Dhabi
Island
UNIT 4
N-2622
N-4383 (AD Isl. Network)
UNIT 1
UNIT 2
N-6043 (UAN PS)
N-4268.2 Dec. 2012
(S1) SCIPCO = 101 MGD (S2) RPC = 101 MGD
(B) TAPCO = 162 MGD (A1) GTTPC = 84 MGD (A2) ECPC = 51 MGD
(F1) ESWPC =101 MGD (F2) FAPCO = 132 MGD
23
3 M
GD
AMPC
APC
Jebel Ali
Al Ain
Region
Western Region
(Al Gharbia)
N-7894
Nov 2013
Fujairah
N-6850
Mar 2013
Ras Al
Khaimah
N-7396 Nov 2013
N-W-12-0016-MA
Mar 2014
N-11328
Feb. 2016
SADIYAT ISLAND
4
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity Demand Forecast
5
ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecasting Approach
Exports (supplied to Northern Emirates by ADWEA)
Non-Oil & Gas
Non-ADNOC (Residential, Industry, Government, Commercial)
Oil & Gas
ADNOC (supplied to ADNOC by ADWEA)
Common Assumptions (to all ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecasts)
Emirate of Abu Dhabi Economy
6
Electricity Demand Forecast Definitions
Long-Term Trend (7.4% 1990-2006)
7% Non-Oil Forecast Non-Oil : 7% p.a.
Auxiliaries : 7% p.a. 2013 - 2020
Short-Term Trend (9.4% 2007-2012)
9.4% Non-Oil Forecast Non-Oil : 9.4% p.a.
Auxiliaries : 9.4% p.a. 2013 – 2020
Baseline Forecast Non-Oil: Projects Based
Auxiliaries : Model 2013 – 2030
Common Assumptions Oil: ADNOC Demands
Exports (including losses)
F1 & F2 common assumptions for Production / Auxiliaries / Pumping
7
ADWEC Demand Forecasting Data Process
Distribution Companies
Transmission Company
ADWEC
8
Demand Forecast
• Constraints • Meetings • Finalisation
of Results • Distribution
Data Collection
• Developers • TRANSCO • Discos • UPC • Others
Verify Data • Site visit • MEED
Projects • Media /
Clipping • Daily Report
Analysis • Population
Growth • 3 kW per Capita • Common
assumptions • Bottom up
Model
Population Model Project Model
Existing Area Forecast
Mega and Industrial Projects Forecast
AD Emirates Demand Forecast
ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecast Data Collection Process
9
Demand Forecasting Process
10
• ADWEC prepares an annual electricity demand forecast until 2030, which is then used to plan new generation capacity and fuel requirements etc. A similar process is undertaken for water.
• The Bottom Up Model adds up all new projects’ demands in the Emirate, and is the most suitable approach for forecasting electricity demand since it relates individual projects’ demand to total electricity demand.
• ADWEC’s Electricity Demand Forecast is classified according to the following categories:-
1. ADNOC
2. Industry
3. Workers Camps
4. Transportation (Identified Projects)
5. Residential / Commercial Identified* Projects
6. Residential / Commercial others
(*Identified projects are mostly mega projects, but they also include some smaller projects, e.g. 5 – 10 MW for which specific information exists but are too small to call ‘mega projects’.)
• Developers are requested to submit to ADWEC yearly updates on their Demand Forecast.
Electricity Demand Forecast Overview
11
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity Demand Forecast (Peak MW)
6,885
7,683
8,278
9,002
10,482
11,633
12,766
14,014
15,115
16,341
17,696
6,885
7,6838,278
8,982
10,196
11,605
12,599
13,936
14,845
15,69116,337
17,454
18,60019,248
20,151
20,888
21,870
22,765
23,846
24,887
26,363
6,885
7,683
8,278
8,823
10,095
11,005
11,860
12,788
13,523
14,330
15,209
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 : Emirate of Abu Dhabi
Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts (MW)
9.4% p.a. Non-ADNOC (2007-2012)
Baseline : Emirate of Abu Dhabi
7% p.a. Non-ADNOC (1990-2006)
12
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity Demand Forecast (Peak MW)
8,563
9,749
10,618
11,576
13,604
14,892
16,174
17,559
18,808
20,189
21,709
8,563
9,74910,618
11,556
13,322
14,864
16,009
17,481
18,541
19,54920,370
21,666
23,00223,860
24,983
25,955
27,185
28,344
29,702
31,040
32,824
8,563
9,749
10,618
11,400
13,222
14,273
15,280
16,350
17,238
18,208
19,258
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 : Global
Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts (MW)
9.4% p.a. Non-ADNOC (2007-2012)
Baseline
7% p.a. Non-ADNOC (1990-2006)
Global = Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Exports
13
1,3691,915
879
2,1211,377
3,990
100
592
920
1,803
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
2012 - 2015 2012-2020
MW
Cumulative Post-2012 Change in Peak Electricity Demand Forecast (MW)
Exports
Auxiliaries
Population Related
Industry
ADNOC
(ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Baseline Demand Forecast)
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity Demand Forecast
14
10,61811,556
13,322
14,864
16,009
17,481
18,54119,549
20,370
21,666
23,00223,860
24,98325,955
27,185
28,344
29,702
31,040
32,824
8,2788,982
10,196
11,605
12,599
13,93614,845
15,69116,337
17,454
18,60019,248
20,15120,888
21,87022,765
23,846
24,887
26,363
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Total External Flows
Western Region
Al Ain Region
Abu Dhabi Region
Global Demand (diversified)
Emirate of Abu Dhabi (diversified)
Abu Dhabi Region
Al Ain Region
Western Region
Exports
ADWEC Baseline Electricity Demand Forecast by Region (Peak MW)
15
8,2788,982
10,196
11,605
12,599
13,93614,845
15,69116,337
17,454
18,60019,248
20,15120,888
21,87022,765
23,846
24,887
26,363
10,61811,556
13,322
14,864
16,009
17,481
18,54119,549
20,370
21,666
23,00223,860
24,98325,955
27,185
28,344
29,702
31,040
32,824
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Total External Flows
Auxiliaries (Emirate of Abu Dhabi only)
Industry
Transport Identified Projects
Workers Camps
Residential / Commercial Other
Residential / Commercial Identified Projects
ADNOC
Emirate of Abu Dhabi (diversified)
Global Demand (diversified)
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
Industry
Exports
Residential / Commercial Non-Mega Projects
ADNOC
ADWEC Baseline Electricity Demand Forecast by Sector (Peak MW)
16
ADWEC Baseline Electricity Energy Demand Forecast (GWh)
67,742
78,611
87,911
94,902
103,540
109,548
115,307120,023
127,221
134,895139,689
145,944151,374
158,221
164,680
172,247
179,696
189,617
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ADWEC Baseline Electricity Gross GWh Demand ForecastGWh
17
ADWEC Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts Accuracy
Abu Dhabi System Forecast Actual Forecast – Actual Percent
2005 4,640 4,455 185 4%
2006 4,680 4,790 110 2%
2007 5,180 5,286 106 2%
2008 5,830 5,616 214 4%
2009 6,542 6,255 287 5%
2010 7,065 6,885 180 3%
2011 7,916 7,683 233 3%
2012 8,063 8,278 -215 -2.6%
Global Demand Forecast Actual Forecast – Actual Percent
2008 6,783 6,620 163 2%
2009 7,967 7,680 287 4%
2010 8,888 8,563 325 4%
2011 10,235 9,749 486 5%
2012 10,462 10,618 -156 -1.5%
Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts (MW)
ADWEC’s demand forecasts have proven to be very accurate 18
Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012
2005 / 2006 7,333 8,652 9,937 10,846
2006 / 2007 7,735 8,735 9,705 10,600
Actual Demand (Global) 7,680 8,563 9,749 10,618
Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts (MW)
ADWEC Long Term Demand Forecasts Accuracy
19
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Fuel Demand Forecast
20
Abu Dhabi
Bu Hasa
Includes planned extensions as of 31/12/2011 & excluding connections to retired plants.
Asab
Liwa
Sila Shuweihat Mirfa
Tarif
Dhabiya
Al Ain
ADPS UAN
Dubai
Jebel Ali
Qidfa
Mussaffah
Habshan
Madinat
Zayed
Thammama C / Bab
(ADNOC)
To Oman Oil
Company Ruweis
(ADNOC)
Maqta
(ADNOC)
Taweela
h
1200 mm(48”) 1125 mm(45”) 1050 mm(42”)
900 mm(36”) 750 mm(30”) 600 mm(24”) 500 mm(20”) 450 mm(18”) 300 mm(12”)
ADNOC Gas line Power Stations
Gas Terminal ADNOC Plant
Under Construction DEL Gas line
Planned ADNOC to DEL transfer
Takreer
(ADNOC)
Ф40” (1000mm)
DEL-TRF
September 2, 2013
Saja
21
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Fuel Demand Forecast
The above fuel demand forecast are derived from ADWEC’s Winter 2012 / 2013 Electricity (MW and GWh) and Water Demand Forecasts.
Item Unit 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Global Yearly Gas Consumption Million scft 663,292 720,943 824,492 908,598 968,108 1,062,400 1,121,805 1,179,001 1,225,994
Average Daily Gas Consumption Million scft/day 1,812 1,975 2,259 2,489 2,645 2,911 3,073 3,230 3,350
Peak Daily Gas Consumption Million scft/day 2,288 2,448 2,668 2,947 3,149 3,427 3,619 3,803 3,955
Global Yearly Gas Consumption Billion BTu 693,140 753,385 861,594 949,485 1,011,673 1,110,208 1,172,286 1,232,056 1,281,164
Average Daily Gas Consumption Billion BTu/day 1,894 2,064 2,361 2,601 2,764 3,042 3,212 3,375 3,500
Peak Daily Gas Consumption Billion BTu/day 2,391 2,558 2,788 3,080 3,291 3,581 3,782 3,974 4,133
Item Unit 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Global Yearly Gas Consumption Million scft 1,298,221 1,375,157 1,422,600 1,484,819 1,538,519 1,606,502 1,670,420 1,745,426 1,819,088 1,917,593
Average Daily Gas Consumption Million scft/day 3,557 3,768 3,898 4,057 4,215 4,401 4,576 4,769 4,984 5,254
Peak Daily Gas Consumption Million scft/day 4,188 4,436 4,589 4,790 4,963 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Global Yearly Gas Consumption Billion BTu 1,356,641 1,437,039 1,486,617 1,551,636 1,607,752 1,678,795 1,745,589 1,823,970 1,900,947 2,003,885
Average Daily Gas Consumption Billion BTu/day 3,717 3,937 4,073 4,239 4,405 4,599 4,782 4,984 5,208 5,490
Peak Daily Gas Consumption Billion BTu/day 4,376 4,636 4,796 5,006 5,186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
- For the actual 2012 fuel split since the Fuel Section of the ADWEC Statistical Report 1998 – 2012.
- The 2012 actual values shown in the above table are the total fuel consumption in 2012 (e.g. gas, fuel oil, gas oil and other back up fuels etc) converted in standard cubic feet (scft) using a standard conversion factor of 1045 btu / scft.
22
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Water Demand Forecast
23
Water Demand Categories
Agriculture (Farms) Industrial
Domestic Villas and Shabiat Irrigation
24
Residential/Commercial Mega Projects Categories
Yas Island Raha Beach
Sadiyat Island Golf Gardens
25
Municipalities (Road Sides and Parks) Gardens
Forests Islands
Bulk and Other Categories
26
Abu Dhabi Emirate Localities (GIS)
27
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Global Water Demand Forecast (by Region)
690
759
810
878
934963
1,0041,036
1,0641,089
1,1111,135
1,1561,177
1,2001,221
1,2421,264
1,2851,307
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
MIGD
Abu Dhabi Region
Al Ain Region
Western Region
Exports
Auxiliaries
28
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Global Water Demand Forecast (by Sector)
690
759
810
878
934963
1,0041,036
1,0641,089
1,1111,135
1,1561,177
1,2001,221
1,2421,264
1,2851,307
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
MIGD
Bulk & Other
Domestic
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
VillasShabiat
AgricultureIndustry
Exports
Auxiliaries(Abu Dhabi)
29
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Global Water Demand Forecast
-0
7
-25 -39 -45 -36 -34 -39 -43 -45 -45 -42 -40 -40 -43 -46 -50 -54 -55 -55
690
759810
878
934963
1,0041,036
1,0641,089
1,1111,135
1,156 1,1771,200 1,221 1,242
1,264 1,285 1,307
690
752
835
917
978 9991,038
1,0751,107
1,1341,156 1,177 1,196 1,217
1,2431,267
1,2921,318
1,3401,362
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013 Water Demand Forecast (MIGD)
Change in Demand Forecast
ADWEC Winter 2012 / 2013
ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012
30
Thank You
31