aerosols and adjoint modeling · 2009-02-06 · daven henze aerosols and adjoint modeling . aerosol...
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University of Colorado, Boulder
WRF-Chem Data Assimilation Workshop, NCAR
Daven Henze
Aerosols and
Adjoint Modeling
Aerosol (PM2.5) Data Assimilation
• PM2.5 is key component of - air pollution - climate forcing
• Current models suffer from large uncertainties - sources - mechanisms
• Observations widespread - surface networks: IMPROVE, CASTNet, STN... - remote: chemical precursors (SO2, NO2,
NH3,...) - remote: optical properties (MODIS to APS)
Aerosol adjoint modeling
Areas of development:
• Aerosol microphysics
• Heterogeneous chemistry and thermodynamics
• Radiative transfer
NO2 (g) HNO3(g) NO3-(s)
Aerosol Microphysics
Aerosol dynamics equation (mass-based formulation):
Condensation / Evaporation
Coagulation Nucleation Loss (deposition)
Developed adjoints for several model formulations of aerosol microphysics
Aerosol Microphysics
Box model tests of inverse modeling capabilities:
IC for ideal multi-component mixture with explicit growth
IC, coagulation kernal and growth parameter
Henze et al. (2004) Sandu et al. (2005)
PM2.5 in a global model: heterogeneous chemistry and thermodynamics
SO2 SO2 + OH
HNO3 NO2 + OH
SO2 + O3 , H2O2
N2O5 + H2O
NOx
NH3
SO42-
NO3-
NH4+
gas-phase thermodynamics
aerosol chemistry
Emissions
H2SO4
wet and dry loss
• Forward model v6-02-05 (Park et al., 2004) • GEOS assimilated meteorology • Global (4°x5°), 30 vertical levels • HOx - NOx - HC gas-phase chemistry • Inorganic aerosol (secondary) • Carbonaceous aerosol (primary) • built manually & automatically (TAMC, KPP)
• Additional developers - K. Singh (GEOS-4), P. Eller, A Sandu (KPP), K. Bowman (TES) - M. Kopacz (CO) - C. Shim (2°x2.5°)
GEOS-Chem Adjoint
Calculates sensitivity of PM2.5 concentrations w.r.t precursor emissions, initial conditions and rxn rate coefs
GEOS-Chem adjoint: Inorganic PM2.5
(thermo only)
Adjoint model validation (Henze et al., 2007)
GEOS-Chem adjoint: Inorganic PM2.5
(thermo only)
Adjoint model validation (Henze et al., 2007)
Constraining U.S. NH3 emissions (Henze et al., 2008)
Radiative Flux (forward calculation)
Chemical Transport Model
Mie Code
Aerosol concentrations
optical properties
Radiative Flux (forward calculation)
Chemical Transport Model
Mie Code
Aerosol concentrations
optical properties
Radiative Transfer Code
TOA upward SW fluxes
Radiative Flux Sensitivity
LIDORT Spurr, 2002
Jacobian calculation
GEOS-Chem Adj Henze et al., 2007
Mie Derivative
[SIA]*, [BC]*
Grainger et al., 2004
Radiative forcing sensitivity by sector, species and location
BC fossil fuel BC bio fuel
NH3 anthropogenic SO2 shipping
Yearly average sensitivities for several sectors:
Aerosol adjoint modeling
Areas of development:
• Aerosol microphysics
• Heterogeneous chemistry and thermodynamics
• Radiative transfer
PM2.5 4D-Var with GOCART: Dubovik et al., 2008
Aerosol adjoint modeling
Areas for development:
• Aerosol microphysics
• Heterogeneous chemistry and thermodynamics
• Radiative transfer
Aerosol adjoint modeling
Areas for development:
• Aerosol microphysics
• Heterogeneous chemistry and thermodynamics
• Radiative transfer
• Meteorology
WRF-Chem
Future Directions
Areas for development:
• Integration of microphysics with chemistry adjoints
• Implementation with WRF-Chem
• Effects of aerosols on photolysis
• Organic aerosol
The end
AQ Attainment
Emissions
Consider metric of PM2.5 air quality,
July
Nonattainment
Effectiveness = adjoint sens =
Effectiveness
GEOS-Chem adjoint: Inorganic PM2.5
Aerosol Microphysics
Box model tests of inverse modeling capabilities:
IC for real multi-component mixture with explicit growth
IC, coagulation kernal and growth parameter
Henze 2005 (M-Thesis) Sandu et al. (2005)
Forward sensitivity
The change in all , or some , is calculated separately for one .
Adjoint sensitivity
Adjoint sensitivities propagate from one , or , to all .
Ideal for calculating the sensitivity of a few things with respect to many things.
Testing the Adjoint Model: Gradient Check
Check gradient using finite difference calculation
Component-wise analysis affords domain wide points-of-comparison
model response (radiative forcing)
control parameter (emissions)
adjoint sensitivity
Testing the Adjoint: single processes, 1 week
(thermo only)
(chem only)
Validating Radiative Forcing Sensitivity
Finite difference
Adjo
int
Anth BC Emis Anth SOx Emis
- Truncation of phase moments bias - Lookup table for Mie calculation variance
Validating Radiative Forcing Sensitivity
ignore
Phase function coefficients for SIA(Dwet)
Dmax
Dmin
Validating Radiative Forcing Sensitivity
Mie results for extinction at discrete mode diameters:
AQ Attainment
Nonattainment Emissions Effectiveness
Januar
y
Effectiveness of emissions controls have critical spatial, seasonal, sector and chemical variability
(NH4+)2SO4
2- (mw = 132) 2NH4+NO3
- (mw = 2x80) West et al. 1999; Vayenas et al., 2005; Pinder et al., 2007