Presented at: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Washington, DC

Afghanistan’s

Youth Bulge Dilemma

Richard Cincotta

The Stimson Center

rcincotta@stimson.org

Frankly, I’ve never understood why we give a damn whether a girl goes to school in Afghanistan or not.

That’s not a national interest of the United States.

It’s no interest to the United States.

MICHAEL SCHEUER Former-head of a CIA special unit Conference on US Foreign Policy JUNE 28, 2006

Cartoon by: John Deering, Arkansas Gazette, 2001

To the Taliban: Give us Osama Bin Laden or we’ll send your women to college.

Transitional Population age structures

2010

Age structural transition

Data: UN Population Division, 2013

Data: UN Population Division, 2013

Zone of instability:

• high risk of civil conflict

• low probability of attaining FH’s “Free” status

• high risk of losing FH’s “Free” status

Age structural transition

Fertility by Region

Northern 4.9

North Eastern

5.1

Eastern 5.6

Capital 5.1 Highland

4.6

Southern 4.7

Western 4.9

Eastern 5.5

Afghanistan 5.1

TFR for women age 15-49 for the 3-year period before the survey

South

Central

Measure DHS, 2011

Pashtun-speaking region

Fertility by Background Characteristics

4.8 5.2

5.4 5.0

5.3

2.8 3.6

4.4 4.7

5.3

5.2 4.7

5.1

RichestFourthMiddle

SecondPoorest

HigherSecondary

PrimaryMadrassa

No education

RuralUrban

Afghanistan

RESIDENCE

EDUCATION

WEALTH

TFR for women age 15-49 Measure DHS, 2011

EDUCATION

INCOME

Families with FEW

CHILDREN

Youthful

Intermediate

~Stable

Youthful

~Risk

1. LONG TERM Goal: The middle of the age-structural transition,

reducing the risk of political violence. [women’s issues] 1. SHORT TERM Goal: Immediate end to armed conflict. [men’s

agenda]

1. THE DILEMMA: Are they compatible?

The Youth Bulge Dilemma:

Age structures: 2010

Data: UN Population Division, 2010 Rev.

Age structures: 2030

Data: UN Population Division, 2010 Rev. (medium fertility variant)