africa research bulletin december 2012

AfricaResearchBulletin Political

Social andCultural Series

Volume 49 Number 11 November 1st–30th 2012

SIERRA LEONEHigh Poll Turnout

The election is seen as a test of stability;a consolidation of the peace establishedafter the brutal civil war.

The United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on November18th congratulated the people of SierraLeone for the peaceful and orderlyelections held on November 17th, thefirst one run entirely by the governmentsince the end of the West Africannation’s brutal civil war 10 years ago,in which around 50,000 people died.

The voter turnout was reportedly highfor the four elections – presidential,parliamentary, local council and may-oral, the results of which would not beknown for about 10 days.

“The high voter turnout and the remark-able calm displayed by the country’scitizens as they cast their votes are aclear manifestation of their desire forpeace, democracy and development,”said a statement issued by Mr. Ban’sspokesperson.

“As the country awaits the announce-ment of final results, the Secretary-Gen-eral calls on Sierra Leone’s politicalleaders, parties and their supporters toaccept the will of the people and to puttheir country above any other interestsso as not to jeopardise Sierra Leone’shard-won peace,” it added.

Mr. Ban also urged all sides to worktogether and uphold their commitmentto the people of Sierra Leone to bolsterstability and unity.

The elections were the country’s thirdsince the end of its civil war, and thesecond since the withdrawal of thepeacekeeping operation known as theUN Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAM-SIL) in December 2005. The vote is seenas an indicator of progress towardsrecovery. (UN News Service 18/11)

PANA(17/11) reported voters startedqueuing early, eager to prove to the worldthat democracy had come to stay in thecountry, and that they were ready toconsolidate the peace that had graduallyreturned since the end of the war in 2002.

Incumbent President Ernest Bai Koroma,who was seeking another five-year man-date, faced eight opposition candidates,the most prominent of whom was JuliusBio, a retired army general who oncebriefly served as the country’s head ofstate.

To win outright and avoid a runoff, acandidate had to garner 55% of thevotes.

Though the election campaign had beenlargely devoid of violence, the authori-ties took no chances, as security wastightened across the country of 6mpeople.

The sub-regional bloc, ECOWAS, whichplayed the lead role in restoring peace tothe country, sent 150 observers to mon-itor the election, headed by formerGhanaian president John Kufuor.

This issue pp. 19475–510

Egypt

Mursi’s New Powers 19482

Jihadi Organisations 19490

Gaza – Israel Mediation 19506

DR Congo

M23 Takes Goma 19487

Kenya

Policemen Massacred 19492

Sudan

Sabotage Plot Foiled 19502

Israel Bombs ArmsFactory 19507

Tunisia

Death of HungerStrikers 19505

Contents

Continental Alignments 19477

Internal Developments 19479

National Security 19486

Military 19504

Overseas Relations 19505

Social and Cultural 19508

Rates 19509

Index 19510

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Nat. ParkRokelRiver

MakeniKambia

LungiLunsar

ShengeBonthe

Magburaka

TaiaRiver

Bo

KoiduSewaRiver

Kenema

SIERRA LEONE

Freetown

Guinea

LiberiaMoaRiver

Sulima

Sherbo I.

Atlantic Ocean

TurtleIslands

BananaIslands

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125 mi

125 km

Published monthly since 1964 http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/arbp

© Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2012. ISSN 0001 9844

In its preliminary report on November19th, ECOWAS hailed the elections asbeing free, fair and credible: “The vastmajority of the qualified Sierra Leoneanpopulation, who wished to do so, wereprovided the required freedom and spaceto exercise their constitutional rights tovote or to be voted for.”

The mission said, however, that therewere ‘‘a few isolated incidents that couldhave marred the smooth and peacefulconduct of the polls.’’ (PANA, 17,19/11)

A coalition of non-governmental organ-isations, National Election Watch, saidthe voting went well, with some delays inopening polling stations. (BBC NewsOnline 17/11)

Nine parties contested the presidentialelection, but the biggest test for thecountry would be for one of the twomain parties that have moved in and outof power since independence from Brit-ain in 1967 to accept defeat.

Richard Howitt, head of a EuropeanUnion (EU) observer mission, urged aspeedy announcement of results to avoidpotential violence.

“At this stage the integrity (of the count)appears to be very high,” he told AFP.

“A lot of people have said they are veryconcerned about reactions as resultsbecome known and that could be aflashpoint in terms of potential conflictbetween rival groups of supporters.

“I am concerned an undue delay inresults being announced could risk con-flict in a society where rumour plays abig role. There are some risks at themoment for Sierra Leone.”

The incoming government will be taskedwith stewardship of a lucrative windfallfrom a boom in the country’s miningindustry, notably iron-ore, and possibleoil production.

Though still one of the world’s poorestcountries, Sierra Leone is rich in mineralresources and massive iron-ore stores are

expected to add 21% growth in 2012 toits US$2.2bn gross domestic product,the International Monetary Fund (IMF)estimates.

If well-managed, these resources couldchange the fortunes of a nation whichhas one of Africa’s lowest life expectan-cies at 47 years, according to the WorldBank, and highest rates of maternalmortality. Youth unemployment levelshover at 60%. (© AFP 17/11 2012)

Koroma Wins

As the country awaited the results, onNovember 19th, Julius Bio complainedthat his party had evidence of poll fraud.

“There (is) evidence of rampant ballotstuffing in several polling centres, espe-cially in the northern region, Konoand Freetown with full complicityof NEC (National Electoral Commis-sion) staff,” Bio said in a press state-ment.

Following the complaints, the head ofthe election commission, ChristianaThorpe, said around 10% of the votesfrom the tightly contested elections hadbeen set aside because of alleged fraud.She said the votes might have to berecounted following the opposition’sallegations.

Although the results had been expectedby November 24th, public anxietyabout the delay started to grow. Thegovernment’s Office of National Secu-rity, along with the UK and US embas-sies, appealed to people to stay calmwhile the election commission dealtwith the complaints.

“Out of the 9,493 polling stations, 90%of polling station results have beenprocessed,” Ms Thorpe said in a state-ment.

“The remaining 10% of… results havebeen quarantined and may require open-ing of [the] affected ballot boxes and arecount of the ballot papers.”

On November 23rd, the NECannounced that President Ernest BaiKoroma had won the presidential elec-tion outright, receiving almost 59% ofthe votes cast. Julius Maada Bio took38% of the ballots, with an averageturnout of 87.3%.

This will be Koroma’s second and finalterm in office. His supporters flooded thestreets of the capital as news of hiscomfortable win became known. (BBCNews Online 22,23/11)

In response, Bio denounced the electionas riddled with fraud.

“The process was fraudulent and theresults do not reflect the will of SierraLeoneans,” he said.

Sierra Leone

Presidential Election – National Results

After counting results from 97.6% (9,269) of all polling stations, excluding those that wereinvalidated, the average national turnout was 87.3%.

Total number of valid votes: 2,350,626

Total number of invalid votes: 108,898 (4.7%)

Candidate Party Votes Percentage

Ernest Bai Koroma All People’s Congress (APC) 1,314,881 58.7%Joshua AlbertCarew

Citizens Democratic Party (CDP) 22,863 1.0%

Gibrilla Kamara Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 8,273 0.4%Kandeh BabaConteh

Peoples Liberation Party (PLP) 6,144 0.3%

Charles FrancisMargai

People’s Movement for Democratic Change(PMDC)

28,944 1.3%

Eldred Collins Revolutionary United Front Party(RUFP) 12,993 0.6%Julius Maada Bio Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) 837,517 37.4%Mohamed Bangura United Democratic Movement (UDM) 5,069 0.2%James Obai Fullah United National People’s Party (UNPP) 5,044 0.2%

(www.nec-sierraleone.org/ 22/1l)

Main Presidential Candidates

Ernest Bai Koroma: Aged 59, Koroma is aTemne, one of the two largest ethnicgroups in Sierra Leone, born in northernMakeni in 1953. After graduating hetaught briefly before going into the insur-ance business.

Having joined the APC as a student in1974, Koroma was elected its leader in therun up to the 2002 presidential elections,which he lost against outgoing PresidentAhmad Tejan Kabbah.

His running mate is vice-president SamuelSam-Sumana.

Julius Maada Bio: Bio was born in 1964 inthe BontheDistrict. He is an ethnicMende.He joined the army, graduating in 1987 andlater served in the west African blocECOWAS Peacekeeping Force (ECO-MOG) in neighbouring Liberia.

After the 1992 coup he served as Ministerof Information and Broadcasting.

Following the transition to democracy in1996 he left the country and earned amasters degree from the School of Inter-national Service at the American Univer-sity in Washington in the United States.

Bio’s running mate is Dr Kadi Sesay, auniversity lecturer and rights campaigner.(© AFP 15/11 2012)

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© Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2012.

19476 – Africa Research Bulletin

“The party has raised concerns aboutelectoral irregularities including fakedand unstamped reconciliation andresults forms, pre-marked ballotpapers, ballot stuffing and over-votingin Kono (diamond-rich east), thewestern area and the northernprovince.

“These and many more instances ofmalpractice undermines the credibilityof the results,” he added.

Bio did not indicate what his next movewould be in challenging the results buturged his supporters to “remain calmand law abiding.”

International observers widely praisedthe poll as free, peaceful and well-conducted. They did, however, notesome shortcomings in the votingprocess and said that Koroma enjoyedan unequal playing field given that hedominated media coverage and had usedstate resources for campaigning. (© AFP24/11 2012)

CONFERENCES ANDCOMMISSIONS

AFRICAN UNIONMali Readmitted

A national body to open talks witharmed groups must be set up.

The African Union has readmitted Mali,after suspending it from the pan-Africanbloc following a March coup by armyofficers (p. 19183), and has backedplans for the authorities to recapturethe north from radical Islamists (seep. 19496).

On October 25th the AU also endorseda plan urging the “restoration of stateauthority of the northern part of thecountry”. The plan, which calls for freeelections in Mali early in 2013, is to bepresented to the United Nations (UN)Security Council for endorsement.

During a meeting in Bamako to devisea strategy to defeat rebels in the north,attended by the UN, the AU, Mali andthe Economic Community of WestAfrican States (ECOWAS), the AUcalled for Mali’s authorities to set upa national body to open talks with anyarmed groups in the north “willing toengage in dialogue to find the politicalsolution to the crisis”.

On October 25th the AU named formerBurundi president Pierre Buyoya as itsHigh Representative for Mali and theSahel. The two-time president will workwith an AU mission soon to open inBamako. (© AFP, Addis Ababa 25/10)

New Representative for Somalia: The AUnamed Mahamat Saleh Annadif of Chadas the new special representative forSomalia, shifting Boubacar GaoussouDiarra of Mali to the Great Lakesregion. As part of his mission, Annadifwill head the 17,000-strong AU Mission(Amisom).

Annadif is a former Chadian presiden-tial chief of staff and foreign minister,

who stepped down earlier in 2012 aftercorruption allegations, but was latercleared of the charges. (© AFP, AddisAbaba 2/11)

IN BRIEFEAC: The East African Community’s longsearch for the ultimate goal of politicalFederation is starting to take shape.

Member States have broken new groundswith a proposal by a team of experts to adopta structure similar to the Tanzanian model(Tanganyika/Zanzibar) headed by a singlepresident, ruling for a year. (The Standard,Nairobi 13/11)

POLITICALRELATIONS

AFRICASoutherly Migration

Only 5% of African migrants go to theWest, 95% migrate within Africa.

Thousands of illegal immigrants fromthe north of sub-Saharan Africa come toMessina, a small South African townnear the border with Zimbabwe, over-land every year. Some take a plane fromSenegal to Democratic Republic ofCongo, another to Lubumbashi, andthen wander around Zambia and Zim-babwe for a month. Zimbabwean peoplesmugglers charge a few hundred rand tocut through three barbed-wire fencesand get them across the Limpopo.

In the past, migrants looked to Europe.But emigration is now economic ratherthan cultural. Immigration requirementsin Europe have become tougher andMoroccans, Kenyans and Angolans nowlook towards the emerging economies,especially South Africa, the centre offuture growth.

Some migrants, too poor to fly, traveloverland. There are dozens of transportcompanies ready to help. A passport anda vaccination certificate are all Ivoiriansneed to travel in the Economic Commu-

nity of West African States (ECOWAS),and 75,000 CFA francs and a five-dayjourney through Ghana, Togo, Benin andNigeria will get them to the coastal townof Calabar on the border of Cameroon.There, most of them, being unable toafford a visa, will go underground.Many of the transport companies havea web of contacts highly experienced ingetting people across borders, stretchingas far as Kinshasa.

The journey to Johannesburg is usuallyinterrupted at stop-off points wheretravellers stay from a few days to a fewyears while they save the money tocontinue.

Every year, 25,000 West Africans—almost all men—try their luck on theoverland route to South Africa. So do20,000 Ethiopians and Somalis and hun-dreds of thousands of Zimbabweans andMozambicans. For many, the journeystops in Gabon, Angola or EquatorialGuinea, which have become so rich fromoil. (Le Monde Diplomatique, November)

REFUGEESBurundi

More than a thousand return homealmost every day.

Close to 8,000 former refugees returnedfrom Mtabila refugee camp in Tanzaniain the first two weeks of November, onconvoys organized by UNHCR, theInternational Organization for Migra-tion (IOM) and other partners. Theywere taking advantage of a last oppor-tunity for assistance to make the jour-ney, having lost their refugee status inTanzania. A further 2,715 are beingallowed to remain in the country asrefugees.

The decision followed interviews withsome 40,000 Burundian refugees con-ducted by panels made up of UNHCRstaff and Tanzanian government officialsover 11 months, giving consideration todevelopments in Burundi since they flednearly 20 years ago.

All returnees are registered by UNHCRand receive a month’s food ration as wellas a small cash grant. They also receive anumber of useful household items, suchas sleeping mats, mosquito nets, buckets,jerry cans, some clothing and sanitary

Continental Alignments

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November 1st–30th 2012 Africa Research Bulletin – 19477

materials, and begin the process ofgetting a vital government ID card.(UNHCR 14/11)

Ethiopia

Massive refugee camps, the size of cities,do untold environmental damage.

Ethiopians would like to continue to begood Samaritans to the hundreds ofthousands seeking refuge from droughtand conflict in neighbouring Somalia,but massive camps in fragile environ-ments have done irreversible damage,turning wooded areas into barren land.The situation has sparked concernamong both the government and thepeople sharing space with the refugees.

Ethiopia’s Somali region is now home tothe world’s second-largest refugee com-plex, Dollo Ado, and it saw the world’slargest influx of Somali refugees in 2012.

Melkadida, a rural settlement in south-ern Ethiopia, about 75km from Somaliaand from Dollo Ado, offers a vividillustration of the problems. Until 2011,Melkadida’s 20,000-odd residents ledlives largely untouched by development,with few shops and no school or clinic.

Then drought struck the Horn of Africain 2011, driving more than 40,000Somali refugees into their kebele, orneighbourhood. Their arrival, and thesubsequent attention of the internationalaid community, brought positive devel-opments, including a school and medicalfacilities. But it also did considerableharm, destroying the environment andintroducing a culture of consumerismand waste.

Somalis continue to arrive in Dollo Ado,driven by poor rains and the threat ofthe insurgent group al Shabaab at home.Their numbers have fallen from the peak2,000 per day in July 2011 to an averageof 30 per day.

By October 2012, more than 25,000Somalis had fled to Ethiopia – makingit the largest recipient of Somali refugeesin the region so far, according to UN-HCR. There are five camps already fulland a sixth camp is being planned. (UNhumanitarian analysis and news service, IRIN12/11)

SOUTH SUDAN –SUDANAgreement Under Threat?

A seemingly intractable argument iscausing concern.

The African Union Peace and SecurityCouncil (AUPSC) gave Sudan andSouth Sudan six weeks to reach a dealon the flashpoint state Abyei, officialssaid on October 24th.

The disputed border remains a majorsticking point in the talks, as violencehas erupted sporadically in several flash-point states. Both sides accuse the otherof supporting rebel groups.

The AU has called on Sudan to negoti-ate with one of the principle rebelgroups, the Southern People’s Libera-tion Movement-North (SPLM-N), andcondemned Khartoum for not movingahead with peace talks. (© AFP, AddisAbaba 24/10)

Intractable conflicts surfaced during theAUPSC examination of the recent AddisAbaba agreement (p. 19443) andobservers see little scope for progress,warned The Citizen (Khartoum).

Observers warned that this lack ofagreement could derail the recent agree-ments. The outstanding issues will nowbe in the hands of the United Nations’Security Council (UNSC), which sourcessay will likely adopt the solution pro-posed by the AU. Others, however, warnthat any solution may be stalled bydivisions within the UN. (The Citizen,Khartoum, 8/11)

Khartoum insists that the SPLA-N bedisarmed before normalising relations.

However, that is not in Juba’s gift:SPLA-N has its own independent struc-ture and programme. Moreover, as theSPLA-N and its Darfur and other alliesin the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF)now control at least half of the Sudaneseside of the border, any attempt by Jubaor Khartoum to demilitarise it wouldmean little. Again, Juba complains ofinternational double standards andargues that it is paying the price offailed CPA implementation – the inter-national failure to democratise Sudan, asthe CPA promised. (Africa Confidential16/11)

By November 26th, the two presidentshaving engaged in two days of extensivediscussions, the crisis showed signs ofeasing. It was agreed to speed up dia-logue on the issue of Abyei in order toreach a deal that brings stability andsecurity to the region. (Suna news agencywebsite, Khartoum 26/11)

WESTERN SAHARAUN Envoy’s Tour

His mission to facilitate negotiationsmade no progress.

United Nations envoy Christopher Rosson November 15th wrapped up hismonth-long regional tour aimed atrekindling stalled Western Sahara peacetalks.

Ross visited Morocco, Algeria, Maurita-nia, France and Spain to evaluate five

years of negotiations, examine causes offailure to make progress and look aheadto see how they can change.

His purpose was to amend the approachof negotiations in order to achievesomething tangible toward the desiredgoal, which is self-determination of theSahrawi people.

Ross said he backed a solution thatwould allow for the building of a unifiedMaghreb and enhancing security andstability in the Maghreb and the Sahel.In a region in transition, a conflict suchas the one in the Western Sahara “can-not be allowed to stand still”, he said,urging the parties “to move swiftly intoserious negotiations”.

Moroccan King Mohammed VI reiter-ated the kingdom’s commitment to find-ing a solution to the conflict overWestern Sahara “as part of Morocco’sproposal for general autonomy”,according to MAP.

A few days after the meeting, Moham-med VI said in a speech to mark the 37thanniversary of the Green March thatannexed Western Sahara, that theautonomy plan was “consistent withinternational legitimacy” and “wouldgrant all the region’s populations exten-sive administration of their localaffairs”.

He added, “Morocco confirms its keendesire to proceed with the negotiationson the basis of the criteria and objectivesdefined by the Security Council, andwhich have been confirmed to me by HisExcellency Mr. Ban Ki-moon, the UNSecretary-General.”

Ross spent three days in Laayoune (orEl Ayoun), the main city in WesternSahara, where he met with members ofpro-Moroccan groups as well as pro-Polisario Front associations, the localgovernor and tribal leaders, AFPreported. (Magharebia.com 15/11)

Sahrawi citizens, “eager to assert theirright to free expression and to indepen-dence,” the Polisario Front reported,clashed with Moroccan police in Laayo-une during Ross’s visit.

In May (p. 19263), Morocco demandedRoss’s replacement as envoy, accusinghim of being “unbalanced and biased”but Ban Ki-moon refused, and UNofficials in turn accused Morocco ofseeking to undermine the work of thepeacekeeping mission.

The Polisario Front, supported byneighbouring Algeria, controls a smallpart of the desert interior and hasbases over the border around Tindouf.The UN brokered the 1991 ceasefirebut a settlement of the conflict remainselusive.

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19478 – Africa Research Bulletin Continental Alignments

Morocco has proposed broad autonomyfor the region under its sovereignty butPolisario rejects the plan and insists onwhat it says is the right of the Sahrawipeople to self-determination through areferendum. (© AFP, Algiers 2/11)

The UN has been involved in mediationefforts to find a settlement in WesternSahara since 1976. A UN peacekeepingforce, known as the UN Mission for theReferendum in Western Sahara (MI-

NURSO) has also been in place since1991.

The envoy said the current status quo isthreatened by developments in WestAfrica’s Sahel region, which has seenthe growing presence of Islamist extrem-ists and militants, including a branch ofAl-Qaeda.

Ross said Spanish officials were “keen”to contribute to the mediation effortsand he would also make stops in Paris,Washington D.C., London and Moscowwhere he plans to address the issue withhis counterparts in those Western capi-tals before returning to North Africa.(UN News Service 13/11)

IN BRIEFEritrea – Kenya: Eritrean President IsaiasAferwerki has asked Kenya to lift a visareferral demand slapped on its nationals afterthe expiry of a visa abolition agreementbetween the two countries.

Eritrean truck drivers and travellers areamong those affected by the agreement, withat least 300 truck drivers now stranded on theUgandan side of the common border.

Kenya has been acting tough on the securityfront after a series of attacks by the Somali

fundamentalists, Al Shabaab, which Eritreahas been accused of backing. (PANA, Nairobi29/10)

Rwanda, Peace Award: Rwandan PresidentPaul Kagame was voted African Peace Per-sonality, winning the 2012 award after anonline vote by African students/youth acrossthe continent.

Kagame was shortlisted for the prestigiousaward alongside President, Ernest Bai Koro-ma of Sierra Leone, President Ellen JohnsonSirleaf of Liberia, and, former president ofNigeria, Olesugun Obasanjo.

Kagame was recognized for his ingenuity andstyle of leadership to unite the people ofRwanda and seek peaceful means to stabilisethe country after the 1994 genocide againstthe Tutsi. (The New Times, Kigali 30/10)

South Sudan – Uganda: Tension is mountingat the Elegu border post in Atiak sub-county[northern Uganda] after authorities in SouthSudan ordered a stop to developments, claim-ing that the area belongs to their country.

The South Sudanese claim that the construc-tion of a border market and other permanentstructures on “their land” is a breach of “bi-lateral understanding” between the two coun-tries.

The border currently boasts a high-level oftrade between the two countries. (DailyMonitor website, Kampala 23/11)

GOVERNMENTAPPOINTMENTS

COTE D’IVOIREGovernment Dissolved

The move reflects differences over adraft marriage law.

President Alassane Ouattara on Novem-ber 14th dissolved the governmentformed in March and charged withreviving the country after the politicaland military crisis of 2010–2011, thepresidency said.

The head of the president’s office,Amadou Gon Coulibaly, later explainedat a press conference that the dissolutionwas the consequence of growing differ-ences among the governing parties –Ouattara’s RDR, former president HenriKonan Bedie’s PDCI and the smallUDPCI party.

“PDCI and UDPCI parliamentarygroups voted against” a draft marriagelaw submitted by the government whenit was examined by a parliament com-mittee on November 13th, said Ouatt-

ara’s chief of staff. The contentioustext gives both a man and womanequal footing in a marriage.

“This is a problem as it affects thesolidarity” expected from a governmentcoalition, he added.

The outgoing government, formed onMarch 13th, was led by prime ministerJeannot Kouadio Ahoussou (PCDI) whoalso served as Justice Minister.

Coulibaly said Ouattara had made con-tacts with the leaders of the parties that sofar backed the government to form a newadministration, but did not give a datewhen a new cabinet would be presented.

On November 21st former ForeignMinister Daniel Kablan Duncan wasappointed Prime Minister.

The 69-year-old is from the PCDI party.He is a trained economist who alreadyserved as prime minister under KonanBedie between 1993 and 1999.

Observers say the former premier,Ahoussou, had failed to make his markon the political scene and was overshad-owed by a powerful president, autono-mous ministers and Guillaume Soro, hispredecessor and ex-rebel chief whotoday heads the national assembly and

maintains a powerful presence, espe-cially on security matters. (© AFP 14,21/11 2012)

Duncan’s government was published bythe online website of the government-owned newspaper, Fraternit�e Matin, onNovember 22nd as follows:

President of the Republic, Minister ofDefence: Alassane OuattaraPrime Minister, Minister of the Economyand Finance: Daniel Kablan DuncanMinisters of StateInterior and Security: Hamed BakayokoForeign Affairs: Charles Koffi DibyPlanning and Development: Albert MabriToikeusseEmployment, Social Affairs and ProfessionalTraining: Moussa DossoMinistersGuardian of the Seals, Justice, HumanRights and Public Liberties: Gn�en�emaMamadou CoulibalyIn the Prime Minister’s office, in charge ofEconomy and Finance: Nial�e KabaAfrican Integration and Ivorians Abroad:Ally CoulibalyOil, Mines and Energy: Adama ToungaraEnvironment, Town Cleansing andSustainable Development: R�emy AllahKouadioEconomic Infrastructure: Patrick AchiPublic Health and Administrative Reform:Konan GnamienNational Education and Technical Instruc-tion: Mme Kandia Kamissoko CamaraTrade, Industry and the Promotion of SMEs:Jean-Louis BillonHigher Education and Scientific Research:Ibrahima Ciss�e BacongoTransport: Gaoussou Tour�e

Canary Islands(Spain)

Boujdour

AtlanticOcean

Boukra Semara

Laayoune

GueltaZemmur

Ad Dakhla

200 km

200 mi

Bir Gandouz

WESTERNSAHARA

S A H A R A

Mauritania

Morocco

Algeria

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Animal and Fishing Resources: KobenanKouassi AdjoumaniHealth and the Fight Against AIDS: MmeRaymonde Goudou CoffieAgriculture: Mamadou Sangafowa CoulibalyConstruction, Housing, Town PlanningDevelopment: Mamadou SanogoIndustry: Jean-Claude BrouSolidarity, the Family, Women and Chil-dren: Anne D�esir�ee OulotoCulture and Francophonie: Maurice Band-amanPosts, ICT, government spokesman: BrunoNabagn�e Kon�eWater and Forests: Mathieu Babaud DarretCommunications, deputy governmentspokesperson: Mme Affoussiata BambaLamineTourism: Roger KakouPromotion of Youth, Sports and Leisure:Alain Michel LobognonDeputy Minister in the President’s office, incharge of Defence: Paul Koffi KoffiSecretary General of the President’s Office:Amadou Gon Coulibaly(www.fratmat.info/ 22/11)

THE GAMBIASeries of Changes

President Jammeh makes severalappointments within a month, includinga female Foreign Minister.

President Yahya Jammeh swore intooffice two new cabinet ministers onNovember 6th.

Mass Axi Gaye, formerly ambassador toSenegal, was appointed the Fisheries andWater Resources Minister. Susan Waffa-Ogoo, who until recently was Gambia’sPermanent Representative to the UnitedNations, was sworn in as the newMinister of Foreign Affairs and Gambi-ans in the Diaspora.

AFP added that Waffa-Ogoo is the firstwoman to hold the post during Jammeh’s18-year rule. She replaces MomodouTangara, who has been appointed Minis-ter of Higher Education, Research, Sci-ence and Technology, a post that hadbeen vacant since September.

Wafa-Ogoo served as Tourism and Cul-ture Minister from 2005 to 2008 and wasalso briefly Gambia’s high commissionerto India.

Jammeh often shakes up his cabinet, inwhat observers have described as a signof paranoia, and runs several key min-istries himself.

PANA reported on November 14th thatBala Garba Jahumpa had been appointedMinister of Information and Communi-cation Infrastructure with effect from the12th. He was previously ambassador toSpain. The country had been without anInformation Minister since the dissolu-tion of the last cabinet after the 2011presidential election. (PANA, 6,14/11;© AFP 2/11 2012)

Meanwhile,Hamat Bah, the leader of theoppositionNationalReconciliationParty(NRP), has called on Nigerian President,Goodluck Jonathan, to step in and helpGambia start “national dialogue”.

Mr. Bah’s call came on the heels of therelease of 27 prisoners by PresidentYahya Jammeh which he said shouldbe the beginning of a “genuine nationalreconciliation programme.”

According to the opposition leader, sucha programme should revolve around a“national dialogue” across the board –involving politicians, civil society groups,professional bodies, among others.

Other political observers have alsopointed out the need for dialoguebetween the Gambian government andthe opposition. (PANA, Dakar 5/11)

The government list is now as follows:

President: Sheikh Alhaji Capt Yahya A. J. J.JammehVice-President: Isatou Njie-SaidyMinistersAgriculture: Solomon OwensBasic and Secondary Education: Fatou Lam-in FayeFinance and Economic Affairs: Abdou Kol-leyFisheries and Water Resources: Mass AxiGayeForeign Affairs, International Cooperationand Gambians Abroad: Susan Waffa-OgooForestry and the Environment: Fatou NdeyeGayeHealth and Social Welfare: Fatim BadjieHigher Education, Research, Science andTechnology: Momodou TangaraInformation and Communications: BalaGarba JahumpaInterior: Ousman SonkoJustice and Attorney-General: Lamin A.M.S. JobartehPetroleum: Teneng Mba JaitehPresidential Affairs and National AssemblyMatters, Secretary-General and Head of theCivil Service: Njogou Lamin BahTourism and Culture: Fatou Mass Jobe-NjieWomen’s Affairs: Isatou Njie SaidyWorks, Construction and Infrastructure:Francis Liti MbogeYouth and Sports: Alieu K. Jammeh(gambia.gov.gm)

LIBYACabinet Approved

Will the new team endure and meet themultiple and complex challenges itfaces?

Libya’s General National Congressapproved a new government led by PrimeMinisterAli Zidane onOctober 30th. Thevote came a day after protesters, unhappyat the make-up of the proposed cabinet,disrupted proceedings.

Zidane’s list includes a mixture of liberalfigures and Islamists as he tries to build acoalition acceptable to all parties. Only

two-thirds of the assembly’s 200 mem-bers attended the session on October31st, and after the vote the sessionabruptly adjourned for prayers.

The head of Congress and Libya’sinterim leader, Mohammed Magarief,said he had been advised by securityguards to end the session early.

About 100 protesters stood outside theCongress building, but there was norepeat of earlier disturbances.

The new government has representativesfrom the two biggest blocs in the Con-gress – the Alliance of National Forces,led by liberal former Prime MinisterMahmoud Jibril, and the Muslim Broth-erhood’s Justice and Construction Party.

Mr Zidane said he had tried to strike abalance between Libya’s differentregions in making the appointments.

According to his list, the defence andinterior ministries would be headed byministers from the eastern city of Beng-hazi, considered to be the cradle of the2011 revolution that ended MouammarGaddafy’s rule.

Two women are also among the minis-ters proposed by Zidane. (BBC NewsOnline 31/10)

AFP (31/10) said that the new govern-ment faces many challenges in a countrystill awash with arms and struggling forreconciliation more than a year after theend of the armed uprising. Its chief taskis organising fresh elections within 12months on the basis of a new constitu-tion.

Most of the new cabinet was sworn in onNovember 14th at the National Assem-bly, although eight contested nomineeswere absent.

The new cabinet only included 23 of the31 nominated ministers. Eight otherswere not approved and four wererejected by Libya’s anti-corruptionbody.

The Integrity and Patriotism Commis-sion decided against candidates for theInterior Ministry, the Ministry of Elec-tricity, the Ministry of Higher Educationand the Ministry for Relations with theGNC. Members of Congress had reser-vations on the nominees for the Ministryof Agriculture, the Ministry of SocialAffairs, the Ministry of Religious Affairsand the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.(Magharebia.com 16/11; © AFP 31/10)

The new government is as follows:

Prime Minister: Ali ZidaneDeputy Prime MinistersAl-Sidiq Abd-al-Karim Abd-al-RahmanKarimAwad Ibrik al-Ba’asiAbd-al-Salam Muhammad al-Mahdi al-QadiMinisters

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19480 – Africa Research Bulletin Internal Developments

Justice: Salah Bashir A’bash MirghaniInternational Cooperation: MuhammadAmuhammad Abd-al-AzizMartyrs and Missing People: Sami MustafaAl-Sa’idiHigher Education: Abd-al-Salam Bashiral-DuwaibiLocal Administration: Abu-Bakr al-HadiMuhammadSocial Affairs: Kamilah Khamis Abdallahal-MuzainiCommunications: Usamah Abd-al-Ra’ufSayalaDefence: Muhammad Mahmud Musaal-BarghathiYouth and Sports: Abdallah MuhammadGhuaylahInterior: Ashur Sulayman Salih ShawaylEducation: Muhammad Hasan Abu-BakrAgriculture: Ahmad Ayad Ali al-ArufiForeign Affairs: Ali Sulayman al-UgaliFinance: Qilani Abd-al-Karim KilaniIndustry: Sulayman Ali Al-Latif al-FituriTourism: Akram Abd-al-Salam Bash ImamLabour and Rehabilitation: Muhammad al-Fituri Ahmad SuwalimTransport: Abd-al-Qadir Muhammad Ah-mad al-AyibEconomy: Mustafa Muhammad Abu-FunasOil: Abd-al-Bari Ali al-Hadi al-ArusiHealth: Nur-al-Din DaghmanElectricity: Ali Muhammad AmhariqWater Resources: Al-Hadi Sulayman HanshiReligious Endowments and Islamic Affairs:Abd-al-Salam Muhammad Abu-Sa’dHousing and Utilities: Ali Hasan al-SharifPlanning: Mahdi al-Tahir UgniyahCulture: Habib Muhammad AminMinisters of StateGeneral National Congress affairs: Mu’izFathi al-KhawjahAffairs of the Wounded: Ramadan AliMansur Zarmuh(WAL news agency, Tripoli 30/10)

Priorities

Security, national reconstruction, eco-nomic development and health are themain priorities of the new government,said Ali Zidane.

The Prime Minister also promised towork toward reconciling Libyans bypreserving justice and forgiveness,without neglecting the protection ofindividual rights. In this regard, hecalled on all national forces, religiousleaders, elders and civil society organi-sations to participate actively and effec-tively in the achievement of nationalreconciliation.

On foreign policy, he reiterated the com-mitment of his government to buildingstrong and successful relationships withsisterly and friendly countries. Theserelationships, he said, will be based onmutual respect and cooperation tostrengthen peace and international secu-rity, while preserving the Islamic, Araband African identity of Libya.

He said Libya would also comply withthe United Nations Treaties and allinternational agreements and conven-tions.

Zidane said Libya would maintainstrong links with Africa, and that itsrole in the continent would now beguided by new principles based onmutual respect, non-interference in theaffairs of other countries and coopera-tion with the African Union (AU).(PANA, Tripoli 16/11)

Federalist Demonstrations: Hundreds ofbackers of federalism gathered in Beng-hazi on November 2nd calling forautonomy for the oil-rich east. Morethan 1,000 demonstrators, demandinggreater autonomy for the Cyrenaicaregion, gathered outside the TibestiHotel after weekly Muslim prayers, anAFP journalist at the scene said.

Members of the movement would like tosee Benghazi become the economic cap-ital of Libya, with key institutions suchas the central bank and the ministries ofoil and finance based in the city.

The demonstrators also circulated astatement calling for a return to the1951 constitution and expressing sup-port for the new government of PrimeMinister Ali Zidane.

Libya was a federal union from 1951to 1963 under King Idris I, whichdivided the country into three admin-istrative states, Cyrenaica, Tripolitaniaand Fezzan.

Cyrenaica, which runs from the Medi-terranean coast south to Chad, com-prises roughly half of the country’sterritory and holds about three-quartersof Libya’s vast oil reserves.

Federalism backers feel the region wasneglected by Gaddafy’s regime. (© AFP2/11 2012) Prime Minister removed

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SENEGALGovernment Reshuffle

Ministers perceived not to haveperformed well are dropped.

According to a decree published onOctober 29th, President Macky Salldismissed his foreign and interior minis-ters in a major government reshuffle, justdays after admitting “errors” in manag-ing a violent protest against the deten-tion of a religious leader.

Foreign Minister Alioune Badara Cisseleaves the government and is replaced byMankeur Ndiaye, formerly Senegal’sambassador to France.

Retired army General Pathe Seck wasnamed as Interior Minister, replacingMbaye Ndiaye who came under heavycriticism over the violent pro-tests by hordes of devout disciples ofCheikh Bethio Thioune at the end ofOctober.

Thioune, a prominent leader of theMouride brotherhood, one of four Sufibrotherhoods followed in the 95% Mus-lim nation, had been arrested on April23rd after the death of two of hisdisciples during a brawl at his housethe previous evening.

The education, trade, infrastructure,sports and other portfolios were alsoshuffled.

Among the new arrivals is journalist andwriter Abdou Latif Coulibaly, who willhead up a new Ministry for the Promo-tion of Good Governance and be agovernment spokesman.

Sports Minister El Hadji Malick Gakouwas replaced days after national footballcoach Joseph Koto was sacked over aviolence-tainted 2013 Africa Cup ofNations qualifier against Cote d’Ivoireearlier in October. Senegal was formallydisqualified from the 2013 Nations Cupafter Ivorian players and fans weresubjected to a hail of stones, bottlesand chairs with fires lit in the stands andfirecrackers thrown.

World music icon Youssou Ndour seesthe culture brief removed from hisculture and tourism portfolio, one ofseveral such tweaks which sees thecabinet expand from 25 ministers to30. The reshuffle comes seven monthsafter Sall named Abdoul Mbaye asPrime Minister.

The new government list as published onthe official government website is asfollows:

Nigeria

Minor Cabinet Change: President Good-luck Jonathan, on October 31st, effected aminor cabinet reshuffle with the Ministerof State for Niger Delta Affairs, HajiaZainab Kuchi, swapping places with theMinister of State in the Ministry of Power,Mr. Darius Dickson Ishaku. The move wasreportedly because the President was dis-satisfied with Ishaku’s performance. Hehad taken over running the Power Minis-try when the substantive Minister, BarthNnaji, resigned in August over allegedconflicts of interest, but the tempo ofreform in the power sector and supply ofelectricity has stalled since then. (PANA,Abuja 31/10)

Olusola Saraki Dies: The politician, 79,who served as leader of the Senate from1979–83, died in Lagos on November 14thafter a brief illness. President Jonathandescribed Saraki as a “political colossus”who had worked with “political sagacity,dedication and wholesome commitment tothe service of his people” as he extendedhis condolences to his family. (PANA,Lagos 14/11)

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President: Macky SallPrime Minister: Abdoul MbayeMinistersAgriculture and Rural Equipment: Abdou-laye BaldeAnimal Husbandry: Aminata MbengueNdiayeCommunication, Telecommunications andthe Digital Economy: Cheikh MamadouAbiboulaye DieyeCivil Service, Labour and Relations withInstitutions: Mansour SyCulture: Abdoul Aziz MbayeDefence: Augustin TineEcology and Sustainable Development: AliHaidarEconomy and Finance: Amadou KaneEducation: Serigne Mbaye ThiamEnergy and Mining: Aly Ngouille NdiayeFisheries and Maritime Affairs: Pape DioufForeign Affairs and Senegalese Abroad:Mankeur NdiayeHealth and Social Action: Eva Marie CollSeckHigher Education and Research: Mary TeuwNianeInfrastructure and Transport: Alassane Thi-erno SallInterior: Pathe SeckJustice and Keeper of the Seals: AminataTourePlanning and Local Government: ArameNdoyePromotion of Good Governance: AbdouLatif CoulibalyRestructuring and Areas of Flooding: Kha-dim DiopSport: Mbagnick NdiayeMinister of State, Secretary-General of thePresidency: Aminata TallTourism and Leisure: Youssou NdourTown Planning and Housing: KhoudiaMbayeTrade, Industry and the Informal Sector:Malick GackouTraining, Learning and Crafts: MamadouTallaWater and Sanitation: Oumar GueyeWomen’s Affairs, Childhood and Women’sEntrepreneurship: Mariama SarrYouth, Employment and Promotion of CivicValues: Benoit SambouMinister Delegate to Economy and Financeresponsible for the Budget: Abdoulaye Dao-uda DialloMinister Delegate to Foreign Affairs andresponsible for Senegalese Abroad: Seyna-bou Gaye ToureGovernment Spokesman: Abdou LatifCoulibalyGovernment Secretary-General: SeydouGueye(www.gouv.sn/ 29/10)

CONSTITUTIONALCHANGES

EGYPTMursi’s New Powers

A storm of protest greets the move toexert control over all the state’s insti-tutions.

Opposition leaders in Egypt called forlarge protests after PresidentMohammedMursi passed a decree giving himselfsweepingnewpowers onNovember 22nd.

The decree states the president’s deci-sions cannot be revoked by any author-ity – including the judiciary.

It also opens the way for a retrial ofpeople convicted of killings duringEgypt’s 2011 uprising which toppledPresident Hosni Mubarak.

Mr Mursi’s critics denounced the moveas a “coup against legitimacy”. In a joint

news conference, Sameh Ashour, head ofthe lawyers’ syndicate, and key opposi-tion figures Mohamed ElBaradei andAmr Moussa accused Mr Mursi of “mo-nopolising all three branches of govern-ment” and overseeing “the totalexecution of the independence of thejudiciary”.

“We are calling on all Egyptians toprotest in all of Egypt’s squares onFriday [November 23rd],” they said.

Mr ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prizewinner, wrote on his Twitter accountthat the President had “appointed him-

Somalia

Lean Government

After a long delay, the Prime Minister, AbdiFarah Shirdoon, announced a cabinet con-sisting of just 10 ministers on November4th. Only three of the appointees were fromthe administration of former premierMuhammad Abdullahi. Abdihakim Muham-mad Haji Fiqi retains his post at the DefenceMinistry, while Abdullahi Abyan Nur wasappointed Minister for Justice, ReligiousAffairs and Endowment. Maryan Qasimwho was previously the Minister for Gen-der, is now the Minister for Development ofSocial Services. (Radio Bar-Kulan website,Nairobi 4/11)

Parliament endorsed all 10 ministers onNovember 13th, approving one of thesmallest ever cabinets for the war-ravagednation.

There are two women, including Somalia’sfirst female Foreign Minister, Fowsiyo YusufHaji Adan, who is from the self-declaredindependent state of Somaliland.

“Lawmakers have endorsed the new cab-inet with a majority vote, 219 membersout of the 225 who attended the sessiongave the ‘yes’ vote to the new cabinet,”said parliament speaker Mohamed OsmanJawari.

The new government faces tough challengesas it seeks to install order in a countrywracked by decades of war, and with Al-Qaeda-linked al Shabaab insurgents vowingto overthrow the Western-backed adminis-tration. (© AFP 13/11 2012)

The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moonwelcomed the swearing in of the newly-appointed Somali cabinet.

“This marks another important step in thedetermined efforts by Somalia’s new lead-ership to bring about a positive change inSomalia,” the UN Chief said.

The statement said the Secretary-Generaland his Special Representative in Somalia,Dr. Augustine P. Mahiga, look forward toworking with Somali President HassanSheikh and the government to implementthe six-pillar policy that will guide thecountry to democratic elections in the nextfour years. (PANA, Nairobi 16/11)

The government, as published on variouslocal websites, is as follows:

President: Hassan Sheikh MohamudPrime Minister: Abdi Farah Shirdoon,alias Saa’idMinistersDefence: Abdihakim Haji Mahmoud Haji,known as FiqiFinance and Planning: Mahmud HasanSuleyman AwilForeign Affairs: Fowsiyo Yusuf Haji AdanIndustry: Prof Ahmed Mahmud WehliyeInformation, Public Awareness and Co-ordination: Abdullahi Ciilmooge HirsiJustice, Religious Affairs and Endowment:Abdullahi Abyan NurLocal Affairs and National Security: Ab-dihakim Husein GuledNatural Resources: Abdirizaq UmarMuhammadPublic Works and National Reconstruc-tion: Muhiyadin Muhammad KalmoySocial Development: Maryan Kasim

Commenting on the new team, Africa Con-fidential noted that all the cabinet is drawnfrom a tight circle of Hassan Sheikh’s familyfriends, and his most trusted political allies.He risked appearing elitist and non-inclu-sive because he wanted to be sure of histeam. He is signalling that this governmentis here to stay and in no mood for compro-mise on sovereignty.

The ruling group has set up commissions atVilla Somalia to plan the restructuring ofkey ministries: the idea is to establish long-term administrative structures rather thanallow the ministries to respond in an ad hocfashion to the demands of the minister ofthe day. (…)

The new cabinet got mixed reviews. Dip-lomats and UN officials were pleasedwhen the appointments were finally madebut clan loyalists in Mogadishu werebitterly disappointed and claimed the cab-inet was too small and clan representationunacceptably minimal. (…) Some sayHassan Sheikh did not wish to make hisgovernment broader and more sociallyinclusive because he feared appointingministers whose loyalty he could not becompletely sure of in the long run. Prob-lems could emerge if he is trying toengineer a shift from clan politics to partypolitics. (Africa Confidential 16/11) PM

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self Egypt’s new pharaoh. A major blowto the revolution that could have direconsequences”.

On November 25th, 22 Egyptian rightsgroups called on Mursi to withdraw thedecree granting himself extensive newpowers, saying he had dealt a lethal blowto the Egyptian judiciary”.

The announcement of the decreesparked angry and violent demonstra-tions and attacks on Mursi’s Freedomand Justice Party (FJP) offices. Policefired tear gas to disperse crowds assupporters of the judges faced offagainst pro-Mursi demonstrators whotried to disrupt the meeting. (BBC NewsOnline 25/11)

BBC News Online (26/11) reported thatMursi had met with senior judges in aneffort to ease the crisis over the extent ofhis powers. The President said onNovember 25th that his decree wastemporary and not intended to concen-trate power in his hands.

He was committed to finding “commonground” with other parties, he said.He also hoped to reach consensus on anew constitution currently being drafted,he added, and the decree was intended toprevent democratically elected bodiesfrom being undermined.

While the Judges’ Club, which representsjudges throughout the country, calledfor a nationwide strike to protest againstthe decree, the top judicial body, theSupreme Judicial Council, appeared notto reject the decree outright, saying itshould only apply to “sovereign mat-ters”, and urged judges to return towork.

On November 25th, a teenager died and60 people were injured in clashes in theNile Delta town of Damanhour,between the President’s supporters andopponents. Other clashes saw policefiring tear gas in Cairo’s Tahrir Squarearea. However, the trouble had dieddown on November 26th and there wereno further reports of clashes. (BBC NewsOnline 26/11)

Transport Minister Resigns: PresidentMursi has accepted the resignation ofthe Transport Minister Rashad al-Ma-tini in relation to an accident in whicha train rammed into a school bus,killing 47 children and injuring 13others near Asyut. (Nile News TV, Cairo17/11)

ELECTIONS

GUINEAElectoral Commission

This is the first step towards preparinglong-delayed elections.

Guinea’s electoral commission has beensworn in and is ready to begin movingthe country towards long-delayed leg-islative elections. The opposition,which contested the commission’smembership, took part in the swear-ing-in on November 1st, but saidmajor hurdles remained before Guineacan hold a free, transparent poll.

The government-decreed membershiplist, which sparked a protest when itwas released on October 30th, includesnine of the 10 people delegated by theopposition. Under Guinean law thecommission is to have 10 membersfrom the ruling party, 10 from theopposition.

Fod�e Oussou Fofana, vice-president ofthe UFDG party, and a leading memberof Guinea’s opposition coalition, saysthe government’s move was aimed atprovoking the opposition. The govern-ment wants to give the internationalcommunity the impression that theopposition does not want to go toelections. Fofana adds that this is inpart why the opposition decided toparticipate in the launch of the electoralcommission.

Still, opposition members say the com-mission does not yet conform to the lawand they will continue their appeal to gettheir 10th member included.

Beyond membership issues, though, alongstanding grievance of the oppositionremains; the company that will manageelectoral lists. Guinea’s opposition formonths has argued that the currentoperator was unilaterally hand-pickedby President Alpha Cond�e and must be

replaced. Opposition leaders say thismust be one of the electoral commis-sion’s first priorities.

For its part the Guinean governmentsays it is committed to an election thatwill be free, fair and transparent.

Guinea was to have elected a parliamentsix months after President Cond�e cameto power at the end of 2010. Theincomplete political transition has somedonors suspending development assis-tance.

On November 1st, members of thecommission elected Bakary Fofana ascommission president. Long active inGuinean civil society, Fofana was aminister in a transitional government in2010.

The commission must now come upwith a timeline for legislative elections.(News Agencies 2/11) Cabinet reshuffle

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KENYAVoter Registration

This is the first test of unity since the2008 poll violence.

President Mwai Kibaki on November19th launched the registration of voters,

Egypt

November 22nd Declaration

� All investigations into the killing ofprotesters or the use of violence againstthem will be re-conducted; trials ofthose accused will be re-held.

� All constitutional declarations, laws anddecrees made since Mr Mursi assumedpower cannot be appealed or cancelledby any individual, or political or gov-ernmental body.

� The public prosecutor will be appointedby the president for a fixed term of fouryears, and must be aged at least 40.

� The constituent assembly’s timeline fordrafting the new constitution has beenextended by two months.

� No judicial authority can dissolve theconstituent assembly or the upper houseof parliament (Shura Council).

� The president is authorised to take anymeasures he sees fit in order to preservethe revolution, to preserve nationalunity or to safeguard national security.

Ghana

Presidential Candidates

Presidential and parliamentary electionsare to be held on December 7th, with thetwo main parties running almost neck andneck. However, the centre-left NationalDemocratic Congress (NDC) under Pres-ident John Dramani Mahama has main-tained a slight lead, according to local andinternational pollsters.

John Dramani Mahama of the NDC. Hecame to power on July 24th after the deathof President John Atta Mills.

Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of theNew Patriotic Party (NPP)

Henry Herbert Lartey

Papa Kwesi Nduom

Akwasi Addai Odike

Ayariga Hassan

Michael Abu Sakara Foster

Jacob Osei Yeboah

(Africa Confidential 16/11)

Former Vice President Dies: Aliu Mahama,66, died in hospital in Accra on November16th. President John Mahama declaredfive days of national mourning. His bodywas interred at Asomdwee Park. Mahamahad been vice-president for eight yearsunder former President John Kufuor.(PANA, Accra 17/11)

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targeting 18m people who will vote tochose his successor in March 2013.

Kenyan voters will also choose a newparliament, senate and local representa-tives during the March 4th vote.

In a speech urging Kenyans to registermassively for the polls, President Kibakiwarned of a crackdown against pre-election and post election violence aheadof the vote, the first of its kind under the2010 constitution and the first test ofnational unity since the 2008 violence.

The Independent Electoral and Bound-aries Commission (IEBC) launched theregistration as part of a 30-day plan tocompile a new voters’ register to replacethe one that existed in 2007, when thecountry last held its general election. TheIEBC is the seventh African electoralbody to adopt a voter registration planusing biometric voter registers. This willbe done through the 25,000 registrationcentres across Kenya.

President Kibaki assured the IEBC of itsplan to conduct free and fair polls,saying “We shall support the IEBC toconduct a free, fair, peaceful exercise.We will provide adequate security,financing, human and physical, to ensurethis is carried out as planned.”

Justice Minister Eugine Wamalwa saidthe government should call off its pend-ing military operation in the Rift Valleyto allow more people to register asvoters. The Kenyan government is plan-ning to deploy the military into Baragoi,in Samburu county, to counter an attackagainst the police, which left 46 policeofficers dead as they pursued cattlerustlers. (PANA, Nairobi 19/11)

PARTIES ANDPOLICIES

MALAWIUDF President

The son of former president Muluzi ispreparing his challenge.

The politburo of the opposition UnitedDemocratic Front (UDF) has resolvedto change the nomenclature of its leaderfrom national chairman to president.

This means the UDF’s newly-electedNational Chairman, Atupele Austin Mul-uzi, son of former President Bakili Mul-uzi, will now be referred to as President.Muluzi was elected at the party’snational convention on October 30th.

Muluzi is scheduled to contest the 2014presidential elections on the UDF ticket.He is likely to be standing againstPresident Joyce Banda of the PeoplesParty and former ruling Democratic

Progressive Party (DPP). (PANA, Blan-tyre 19/11)

On November 12th, Atupele Muluzi hadresigned his position as Economic Plan-ning Minister, after President Bandatold him he did not have what it tookto run for the highest office.

“It is with enormous regret that I …resign from the post of Minister ofEconomic Planning, appalled and mor-tified by the verbal tirade on me byleaders of the (ruling) People’s Party,”he said.

President Banda was earlier quoted bystate media as telling a rally in southernMangochi, a district where Muluzi ispopular, that he does not even speak thelocal Yao dialect and “yet he wants tobecome president.”

Home Affairs Minister Uladi Mussa toldthe same rally that Atupele was serving“two masters” and that he shouldchoose between being a minister andresigning.

Atupele said the attacks showed thatBanda and some ministers “lacked thecourtesy, mutual respect and dignity thatis expected between colleagues.”

“As a matter of principle, I do notbelieve that I can continue to serve as amember of the cabinet with the honourand dignity that is a requisite for theperformance of such duties.”

He is the first minister to leave Banda’sinclusive government, which was formedseven months ago with the aim ofachieving economic recovery and regain-ing donor confidence. (© AFP 12/11 2012)

In a separate development, a UDFsplinter group announced it had formeda new party on November 6th. Address-ing a press conference in Blantyre,former UDF interim president FridayJumbe identified the new grouping as theLabour Party.

Jumbe was flanked by former seniorUDF officials, Zililo Chibambo, NicholasKachingwe and Joseph Kubwalo.

Jumbe was anointed by Muluzi as UDFacting president soon after the formerruling party’s National Chairman retiredfrom active politics. But soon after, twofactions emerged, one supporting Jumbeand the other backing Atupele Muluzi.

The Jumbe camp accused Muluzi ofworking behind the scenes to prop up hisson, while the Atupele camp accusedJumbe of inaction. Jumbe rejected sug-gestions that he had formed the newparty out of frustration.

“We haven’t formed the new party outof frustration,” he said. “We had sev-eral options, either to cease to be poli-ticians or to continue fighting with our

friends or to form a new party and wehave opted to form a new party.”(PANA, Blantyre 6/11)

Meanwhile, Dindi Gowa Nyasulu, presi-dent of the Alliance for Democracy(Aford), has retired from active politics,and resigned his post. Godfrey Shawahas been appointed by the party’s polit-buro to act as party president in hisplace. (PANA, Blantyre 25/11)

SOUTH AFRICAMixed Feelings Over Zuma

Looking ahead to the ANC conferencein December, Africa Confidential thinksthe President can outwit his detractors.

The re-election of President Jacob Zumaas African National Congress (ANC)President is an ‘unstoppable tsunami’,say his backers, yet many members of hisoriginal coalition of trades unionists andradicals now vehemently oppose him,reports Africa Confidential. His oppo-nents, Deputy President Kgalema Mot-lanthe and Human Settlements MinisterTokyo Sexwale, have failed to build thenecessary momentum.

Their best hopes now lie in two direc-tions – proving their claims of masselectoral fraud by Zuma’s party sup-porters and ensuring that on the dayenough ANC delegates will vote againsthim in the secret ballot, freed from thepressures of his campaign. Motlanthe’sand Sexwale’s campaign has been pla-gued by intimidation and poor tactics:they have not formed a team to confrontZuma, perhaps for fear of being labelleddivisive. The ANC’s culture of internalsecrecy and hostility to individualism,honed during the years of the apartheidpolice state, persists.

Zuma’s strong opponent, ANC NationalTreasurer Mathews Phosa, warned that‘the danger of contestation becomespersonal, disruptive and not in keepingwith the strong democratic values of ourmovement’. Although Sexwale is rich,his and Motlanthe’s supporters havelacked resources where they count, atthe party branches which control over90% of the 4,500 delegates to the ANCNational Elective Conference, onDecember 16th–20th in Mangaung (for-merly Bloemfontein).

Allegations of fraud have flooded intothe ANC’s Johannesburg headquarters.The main claims are that Zuma benefitsfrom fake members and branches, thatthose perceived to oppose his re-electionhave been mysteriously disqualified, andthat membership of pro-Zuma brancheshas been bumped up. Gauteng andEastern Cape provinces, which are bothopposed to Zuma, have complained toANC Secretary General Gwede Mant-

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ashe that some of their branches havenot been ‘recognised’ by his office, whichis in charge of branch audits. ANCEastern Cape Spokesman Mlibo Qobo-shiyane has laid a formal complaintabout defects in the audit process.Mantashe is Zuma’s strongest ally inEastern Cape and the opposition haswooed him without success.

Anti-Zuma activists have launched awebsite, www.forcesofchange.co.za, anda Twitter account, @ChangeANC. Thewebsite runs a lengthy critique ofZuma’s presidency, accusing him andhis family of grand corruption. It callsfor the election of Motlanthe as party

President, Phosa as Deputy President,Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula as Secre-tary General, Deputy SG Thandi Modiseas Chair and Sexwale as Treasurer. Thewebsite improbably argues that unlessZuma is ousted, the ANC may lose the2014 national elections. Everyone inMotlanthe’s camp denies being involved,as does the ANCYL. Perhaps theNational Intelligence Agency is on thetrail, concludes the journal. (Africa Con-fidential 16/11)

ZAMBIANo Official Opposition

Following parliamentary by-elections,no party has sufficient seats to fulfil therole.

Zambia’s former ruling Movement forMultiparty Democracy (MMD) has lostrecognition as leader of the opposition inParliament, Speaker of the NationalAssembly, Patrick Matibini, announced.

This follows the decline in the number ofthe MMD members of parliament in theHouse, following losses the party suf-fered in recent parliamentary by-elec-tions.

Matibini, who announced the revocationof the MMD’s recognition in the Houseon November 15th, said currently noneof the opposition parties had therequired 53 members to satisfy the quo-

rum as provided for under the Republi-can Constitution.

From the 150 seats in parliament, theMMD at the time it was recognised asthe official opposition political party onOctober 19th 2011 had 54 seats, fol-lowed by the United Party for NationalDevelopment (UPND) with 28, the Alli-ance for Democracy and Development(ADD) and the Forum for Democracyand Development (FDD) one each;Independent MPs three seats while theremaining seats belonged to the rulingPatriotic Front (PF).

The figures changed following by-elec-tions held in four constituencies. Thecurrent membership representation inthe House stands at MMD (51), UPND(30), ADD and FDD, both still with oneseat each, while Independent represen-tation has dropped to two seats. (PANA,Lusaka 15/11)

IN BRIEFRepublic of Congo: The first round of parlia-mentary by-elections in the constituencies ofDongou, Bouanela and Kelle, all in northernCongo, has been set for December 2nd.Voters will head to the polls again after theresults of the first election, won by the rulingparty, were annulled by the ConstitutionalCourt over alleged fraud and irregularities.(PANA, Brazzaville 31/10)

Guinea Bissau: The head of the NationalElection Commission (NEC), Desejado Limada Costa, has died in Portugal, where he hadbeen hospitalised since August. Da Costa hadled the NEC since 2008, and was consideredan ally of former prime minister CarlosGomes Junior, who was ousted in an April12th coup. (© AFP 22/10 2012)

Liberia: Thousands of members of the mainopposition Congress for Democratic Change(CDC) gathered in the capital on November7th to mark the one-year anniversary of adeadly police shooting during a disputedelection in 2011.

The justice ministry decided to let the rally goahead after the CDC vowed to defy a ban onthe gathering.

CDC leader and former football star GeorgeWeah addressed the families of those who losttheir lives when riot police opened fire on anopposition protest supporting a poll boycottover fraud accusations.

“They have gone from our sight but they willnever go away from our memory,” he toldthem via telephone from the United States. (©AFP 7/11 2012)

Mauritania: President Mohamed Ould Abde-laziz has returned home for the first time sincebeing wounded by one of his own soldiers inOctober (p. 194339). President Abdelaziz wasshot in the arm by a Mauritanian armysoldier in what the government said was anaccident.

He had been in France for six weeks receivingtreatment.

Thousands of people gathered at the airportto greet the president on his return to the

Sudan

Islamic Movement Leader

Government-linked Islamists in Sudan onNovember 19th chose a former cabinetminister as their head after reformers whofeel the regime has strayed from its Islamicfoundation were ignored, analysts said.

“The Shura Council of the Islamic Move-ment elected Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassanas the Secretary General”, the officialSUNA news agency reported.

Hassan, a regime loyalist, held the port-folios of finance and energy in the gov-ernment of President Omar al-Bashir, whoseized power in a 1989 Islamist coup.Hassan currently heads parliament’s eco-nomic committee.

“The election of the new secretary generalreinforces the government control… overthe Islamic Movement,” said Safwat Fa-nous, a political scientist at the Universityof Khartoum.

Hassan was the only candidate to lead theIslamic Movement after the withdrawal ofGhazi Salaheddine, a former presidentialadviser and moderate Islamist.

Fanous told AFP that Salaheddine wasbacked by a pressure group who believethe Islamic Movement should be autono-mous from the National Congress Party(NCP) regime.

“I think their major concern… is to makethe movement in charge of the govern-ment and its political party, and not theother way around,” he said.

Hassan’s acclamation followed a four-yearly Islamic Movement conferencewhich, analysts said, was dominated bysupporters of the regime despite calls fromthe Arab Spring-inspired reformers whosay corruption and other problems haveleft the African nation’s governmentIslamic in name only.

They have also questioned how muchlonger Bashir should remain in office.

Vice President Ali Osman Taha steppeddown after two terms as secretary general,and analysts see him as a possible succes-sor to Bashir. (© AFP 19/11 2012)

Tanzania

CCM Congress: Tanzania’s ruling Chamacha Mapinduzi (CCM) party held itseighth national congress in Dodoma fromNovember 11th-13th in order to elect itsnational chairperson and two vice-chair-persons for a five-year tenure. Members ofthe party secretariat and the secretarygeneral were also nominated. (PANA,Dar es Salaam 13/11)

The Guardian, Dar es Salaam (14/11),revealed that President Jakaya Kikwetewas re-elected national chairman, with DrAli Mohamed Shein and Philip Mangula asvice-chairmen for Zanzibar and TanzaniaMainland respectively. (PANA, Dar esSalaam 13/11; The Guardian 14/11)

Zanzibar Reshuffle: Zanzibar President DrAli Mohammed Shein has reshuffled hiscabinet dropping Minister without port-folio Mansoor Yussuf Himid.

According to a press statement, Dr Sheinappointed Shawana Bukheti Hassan Min-ister without portfolio. The Isles presidentalso appointed Mtumwa Kheir Mbarakfrom the opposition Civic United Front(CUF) Deputy Minister of Agriculture,Natural Resources and Mohammed SaidMohamed of the CCMDeputy Minister ofLivestock and Fisheries. (The Guardianwebsite, Dar es Salaam 17/10)

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capital Nouakchott. Large crowds also linedthe route between the airport and the presi-dential palace.

Reporters present said the 55-year-old leaderappeared to be in good health, and waved tocrowds from his car, though he gave nostatement. (BBC News Online 24/11)

Namibia: The Supreme Court on October 25thdismissed an application by nine oppositionparties contesting 2009 parliamentary electionresults, which gave President HifikepunyePohamba’s party a landslide victory. The

Supreme Court judge Peter Petrus Shivute, inhis ruling said that althoughmistakes had beenmade, the end result was not affected.

In 2009, the ruling SWAPO, in power sinceindependence in 1990, won more than 75% ofthe votes. (© AFP 25/10 2012)

Togo: Fifteen out of 17 National IndependentElectoral Commission (CENI) members weresworn into office on October 24th, withAng�eleDola Aguigah at the head of its executivebureau. The opposition Committee of Actionfor Renewal (CAR) withdrew its two represen-

tatives in protest at what it terms ‘bad prepa-rations for legislative and local elections’ thatshould have been held at the end of October.(republicoftogo.com 13/11; PANA 28/10)

Tunisia: A new party, called the DemocraticAlliance has been formed under the leadershipofMohamedKoumani. The grouping is seekinggenuine reform in the country, as many aredisappointed with the performance of thepolitical elite. (Al-Sharq al-Awsat website,London 11/11)

BENINPoison Plot Against President

Lucrative industrial contracts are citedbut the opposition suspects the allega-tions are a smear.

A presidential bodyguard was detainedand questioned in early November overan alleged plot to poison PresidentThomas Boni Yayi, the public prosecu-tor, Justin Gbenameto, said on Novem-ber 7th.

Bachirou Adjani became the fourth per-son to be detained over the mysteriousalleged plot to poison the Beninoispresident. The three others, arrested inOctober, were also close to Yayi.

The ex-Minister of Trade, MudjaidouSoumanou was arrested on October 21stand charged along with Yayi’s doctorIbrahim Mama Cisse and niece Zoube-rath Kora-Seke with criminal conspiracyand attempted murder. Prosecutors saythe three were promised CFA francs 1bn($2m) to carry out the plot to replaceYayi’s anti-pain medicine with poison,with the ex-minister acting as an inter-mediary.

Two others are wanted in the case,including the alleged mastermind, busi-nessman Patrice Talon, and his associateOlivier Boko. Talon is a former ally ofthe president but the two have sincefallen out. Both Talon and Boko arebelieved to be outside Benin and inter-national arrest warrants have beenissued against them.

Asked why Ajani was questioned, a closeadvisor of Yayi, who demanded ano-nymity, said it was due to recent “close-ness” between the bodyguard and Talon.There has been speculation that thealleged plot may have been linked tolucrative contracts involving the portand the cotton industry.

Soumanou claimed at the end of Octo-ber that he had been subjected to “psy-

chological torture” in prison, his lawyertold AFP, adding that his client is beingheld “in conditions that are exception-ally difficult, in total isolation, with noopportunity to communicate with hisfamily.”

Interior Minister Benoit Degla said thatSoumanou “is being held in normalconditions.”

The allegations have raised some suspi-cions in Benin that they are intended tosmear the president’s enemies, and mem-bers of the opposition have criticised thecase. Lazare Sehoueto of oppositioncoalition Build the Nation Union saidthat a vague statement by the interiorminister in August that spoke of analleged scheme to destabilise the countryhad led to suspicions. “We knew afterthey issued that statement… that a storywas on its way, and here we are,” hesaid.

Yayi, 60, is an economist who first tookoffice in 2006 and won re-election in2011 with 53% of the vote. (© AFP,Cotonou 24,30/10,7/11)

COTE D’IVOIREMilitary Accused of Abuses

A new report shows how far fromreconciliation the country remains.

The government on November 19thadmitted to possible military “slip-ups”following a wave of attacks by armedgroups and promised to launch aprobe, after a Human Rights Watch(HRW) report said the army wasresponsible for widespread humanrights abuses.

Given the “security situation” follow-ing the deadly attacks on the army inAugust and September and the “levelof human rights training” of thesecurity forces, “it’s possible thatthere were slip-ups”, Ivorian HumanRights Minister Gnenema Coulibalytold AFP.

The statement came after HRW releaseda 73-page report, A Long Way fromReconciliation, saying the country’s mil-itary was responsible for widespreadhuman rights abuses during a “brutalcrackdown” following the attacks on thearmy. “The abuses included arbitraryarrests, illegal detentions, extortions,inhuman treatment, and, in some cases,torture,” the rights organisation said in astatement.

Coulibaly credited the report in hispledge to launch an investigation toverify the allegations and, if necessary,hold the officers accountable.”We havenothing to hide nor anyone to protect,”he said.

The country’s security forces have sinceAugust been subject to deadly attacks byarmed groups, which the governmenthas blamed on supporters of formerpresident Laurent Gbagbo – a claimHRW deems “credible” but thatGbagbo supporters deny.

In October, Amnesty International saidmore than 200 people, including Gbagbosupporters, had been arbitrarily detainedin Cote d’Ivoire, and urged PresidentAlassane Ouattara to respect humanrights. Coulibaly said at the time that“when the security of the state is underthreat, the army will step in” before thepolice and judicial officials get involved.(© AFP, Abidjan 19/11 2012; HRW, Wash-ington 19/11)

The Gbagbos and the ICC

Laurent Gbagbo has lost his appeal tobe freed pending his trial for crimesagainst humanity at the InternationalCriminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, thecourt ruled on November 2nd. He wasfound fit to stand trial.

ICC prosecutors said his possible releaseon bail pending the confirmation ofcharges hearings would jeopardize inves-tigations into the crimes in Cote d’ Ivoireand that Gbagbo could flee if freed onbond pending the confirmation ofcharges. Practical adjustments will how-ever need to be made in order to enablehim to participate at the confirmation ofcharges hearing – shorter court sessions,rest breaks, video links.

National Security

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19486 – Africa Research Bulletin National Security

His wife and former first lady SimoneGbagbo began testifying on November13th in her trial for genocide, embezzle-ment and other charges in the Coted’Ivoire. She has been in custody in thenorthern town of Odienne since April2011. Meanwhile, the ICC announcedon November 22nd that it had unsealedan arrest warrant against her. An ICCstatement said that Simone was cited onfour counts of crimes against humanity,including murder, rape and other formsof sexual violence, other inhumane actsand persecution allegedly committed inthe territory of Cote d’Ivoire during theperiod between December 16th 2010,and April 12th 2011.

A court in Ghana on November 7thpostponed until December 20th anextradition hearing for Gbagbo’sspokesman, Justin Kone Katinan, wantedfor murder and economic crimes.(PANA, Nairobi & Abidjan 2,13,22/11; ©AFP, Accra 7/11) Unreformed army p. 19454

DR CONGOM23 Takes Goma

Fears of wider conflict erupting in thechronically unstable region grow and ahumanitarian catastrophe looms as tensof thousands are displaced.

Rebels in the eastern DemocraticRepublic of Congo were to withdrawfrom the key city of Goma by the end ofthe week, their military chief said onNovember 27th, after the group made astring of demands. M23 rebel leaderGeneral Sultani Makenga told AFP thepullout from the capital of mineral-richNorth Kivu province would be completeby the 30th.

Regional African leaders meeting at asummit in the Ugandan capital, Kam-pala on the 24th had set a deadline of the26th for M23 fighters to leave the city.

The latest deal was struck late on the26th in Kampala between Makenga andregional military commanders, who willvisit Goma on the 30th to monitorprogress of the promised withdrawal.

Among the rebels’ demands is freedomof movement for opposition standard-bearer Etienne Tshisekedi, 79, a formerprime minister who has been underunofficial house arrest since declaringvictory in flawed elections in 2011.

The rebels, whose capture of Goma onNovember 20th sparked fears of abroader conflict, are also demandingdirect talks with the President and thedissolution of the electoral commission.

The announcement follows earlier dec-larations by M23 political leader Jean-Marie Runiga that the rebels wouldwithdraw only if the government met

their demands. But Ugandan army chiefAronda Nyakairima said Makenga hadattached “no conditions” to the pullout.The rebels had however raised concernsabout the security of civilians in theareas they leave, he said.

“They are so concerned that maybe oncethey leave those areas some of theirpeople will be killed,” Nyakairima said.

The M23, which is largely made up ofethnic Tutsis, mutinied in April andseized Goma in a rapid advance.

In just a week, the rebels expandedtheir area of control from one smallcorner of North Kivu province tocover almost the entire province, anarea twice the size of Belgium and richin diamonds and precious metals, ©AFP reports (27/11).

Meanwhile another group, the Mai Maimilitia allied to the DR Congo govern-ment, was reportedly taking up posi-tions outside Minova, a town betweenBukavu and Goma, to help block anypossible advance by the M23. DRCongo army troops equipped withmachine guns and rocket launcherswere in Minova itself.

The African Union (AU) said on the26th it was considering the deploymentof an international “neutral force” to setup a corridor between the M23 and theDR Congo army.

The new fighting, as well as reportedatrocities including killings, rapes andabductions of civilians and recruitmentof child soldiers, has forced tens ofthousands of people to flee their homesin a spiralling humanitarian crisis. Ear-lier in the month, rebel military chiefMakenga was slapped with UnitedNations (UN) and US sanctions overthe alleged atrocities.

The M23 rebels have been blamed forhundreds of deaths since the formerarmy soldiers mutinied in April,unhappy with the outcome of a 2009peace deal that integrated them into theregular army. One of their leaders isBosco Ntaganda, a former army generalnicknamed the “Terminator” who iswanted by the International CriminalCourt (ICC) on charges of war crimesand crimes against humanity.

Besides Goma, the rebels also seizedSake, a strategic town on the way toSouth Kivu province and its capitalBukavu. The fighting triggered an exo-dus from Sake as the entire populationstreamed out and headed towards Gomasome 30km away, where tens of thou-sands of people are estimated to alreadybe sheltering in camps.

The UN expressed shock at the sight ofthousands of civilians fleeing the rebeladvance and appealed for access to help

those caught up in the violence. And inwhat would be a major first for itspeacekeeping operations, the UN saidon November 23rd it was consideringusing drones to monitor the fightingbetween the military and the M23 rebels.

The UN has issued a damning reportaccusing Rwanda, and to a lesser extentUganda, of backing the rebels. Bothcountries deny the allegations.

The region is home to a complex web ofCongolese and foreign rebel groups andmilitias, and the DR Congo andRwanda have long traded accusationsof bankrolling or arming one or more ofthese groups.

Adding to the instability in the region,the Rwandan army claimed on the 27ththat ethnic Hutu extremists based ineastern DR Congo crossed into Rwandaand attacked its forces along the border.Army spokesman Joseph Nzabamwitasaid Rwandan soldiers repelled around100 of the militiamen from the villages ofCyanzarwe and Bugeshi which he saidthey had attacked around dawn.

Calling themselves the DemocraticForces for the Liberation of Rwanda(FDLR), these fighters belong to a Huturebel group that fled Rwanda into DRCongo after minority Tutsi leader PaulKagame’s forces ended the 1994 geno-cide there. Believed to have between3,000 and 4,400 members, it is the mostpowerful rebel force in the region,according to the UN.

Kagame’s government accuses Kinshasaof backing the FDLR, while the DRCongo accuses Rwanda of backing theM23.

Protests

Violent demonstrations reportedlyerupted in several towns on November21st, with some protesters targetingUN missions after rebels took overGoma facing little or no resistancefrom UN peacekeepers and the regularDR Congo army, © AFP reported (22/11). UN peacekeepers deployed attackhelicopters in a vain attempt to haltthe rebel advance and it defended itspeacekeepers against criticism afterGoma fell, with a spokesman saying abattle for the city would have endan-gered civilians.

Congolese Prime Minister Augustin Ma-tata Ponyio said Kinshasa had “lost thebattle but not the war”, and insisted thecountry’s territorial integrity was “non-negotiable”.

The UN is also considering bringing inextra troops for the 17,500-strongMONUSCO peacekeeping mission;UN leader Ban Ki-moon is to recom-mend options to the Security Council

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soon. France has been among thosecalling for MONUSCO’s operationalmandate to be toughened so it cantake a harder line against the rebels.But UN officials say the peacekeepers,who come from nearly 50 countries,must not replace a national army. Inthe capital Kinshasa, some 1,500 kmwest of the troubled Kivu region,several thousand women including Jus-tice Minister Wivine Mumba Matipaand several lawmakers marched on the23rd to protest at the violence © AFPreported (24/11).

On the 24th, the authorities bannedprotests, citing the need to keep orderin what national police chief CharlesBisengimana called an “undeclared stateof war”.

The International Conference of theGreat Lakes (ICGL), which first mootedthe plan of sending a regional force toeastern Congo in July, has held severalhigh-level Summits to discuss the com-position of the neutral force.

At talks in Kampala on November 21st,Kabila and the leaders of Rwanda andUganda insisted rebels immediately pullout of Goma. In a joint statementPresident Kagame and Uganda’s Presi-dent Museveni “made it clear that even ifthere were legitimate grievances by themutinying group known as M23, theycannot accept the expansion of thiswar,” said a joint statement issued afterthe talks.

The United States also renewed callsfor M23 to halt their latest offensive.The European Union (EU), too,added its voice to the internationalchorus demanding that the rebels stoptheir advance, France 24 reported (23/11).

UN envoy Roger Meece accused therebels of carrying out “summary execu-tions” of local leaders in their advanceon Goma and said they were trying toset up “a formal administrative or gov-erning structure” in the region.

A Security Council resolution on the20th called for wider sanctions againstM23 leaders and condemned all externalsupport for the rebels.

The DR Congo government on the19th had dismissed a demand fromthe rebels for truce talks, saying thatthe insurgent force pushing towards thecity of Goma was a tool of neighbour-ing Rwanda. However, according toReuters (24/11), Kabila, whom itreported as saying was willing to hearthe rebels’ grievances, appointed a newinterim head of ground forces on the23rd. Gen. Francois Olenga Tete takesover from former army boss Gen.Gabriel Amisi, who was suspended on

the 22nd over charges he had soldarms to other eastern rebels.

Kabila – Between Rock and a HardPlace

The M23 counterattack has left it incontrol of Goma, the Congolese mili-tary humiliated and President Kabilarunning out of options, writes BenShepherd of Chatham House (22/11).The East African (24/11) agrees thatKabila is in a precarious position andsays the discontent that has dogged hispresidency has deepened. Whether heeventually caves in to the direct talksthe rebels have repeatedly demanded orsticks with Kinshasa’s political class,which is totally opposed to the idea,Kabila is trapped in a no-win situation.The Kinshasa elite fear the disintegra-tion of the DRC and are desperate tomaintain central control over itsfar-flung and fractious provinces.Anti-Rwandan feeling is deep andwidespread.

To survive politically, he will have tobreak ranks with the so-called Mobutu-ists around him who hold him hostage,and agree to M23′s demands—whichessentially are semi-autonomous controlof the Kivus, at least for now, whichthey had been granted under the March2009 agreement. But that can only comeafter calm returns; the current stormdirectly threatens President Kabila’shold on power. Kabila needs to rebuildconfidence among M23 and resume themilitary reforms he had started at thebeginning of the year that were intendedto bring all rank and file within theCongolese army, regardless of theirbackground, under his absolute com-mand as the Commander-in-Chief.

A high-ranking UDPF colonel told TheEastAfrican that M23 had strongergrounds to bargain than when they werejust controlling Rutshuru. “To get themto stop and even retreat from Goma willtake diplomatic skill on Museveni’s partand stronger assurances from Kabilathat, this time, he will deliver on whathe promises. There’s a precedent whereKabila has reneged on his promises, thereal reason why this conflict has re-emerged,” the officer said.

Accusation and Denials: Rwanda’sDouble Game

Rwanda has been accused by UN inves-tigators, human rights groups and theCongolese government of backing M23.The UN has issued a damning reportaccusing Rwanda, and to a lesser extentUganda, of backing the rebels, who itsays have murdered, raped and kid-napped civilians in their sweep acrossthe east. Both countries deny the allega-tions.

Analysts say there could be no otherexplanation for a force numbering nomore than 3,000 men being able tooverpower regular Congolese forcesand seize a such large chunk of land.

“If the M23 are indeed receiving weap-ons and training and even support fromRwandan frontline troops that wouldaccount for the ease for which they wentthrough that area,” said Peter Chalkfrom the RAND security researchgroup.

A panel of UN experts on DR Congohas said that Rwanda not only fundsand arms the M23 but also supervisesground operations, describing RwandanDefence Minister General James Kaba-rabe as the de facto head of the chain ofcommand. Their report named Ugandaas co-sponsor of M23, throwing fuel onthe fire caused by the experts’ earlieraccusation against Rwanda. Uganda hassince put on a show of outrage, threat-ening to pull its troops out of Somalia ifthe allegations are not withdrawn. ItsForeign Affairs Minister, Asuman Kiy-ingi, said Kampala had been “stabbed inthe back” by the UN. On November20th, Uganda blamed the escalation offighting in eastern Congo on the leakedreport, saying also it had damaged itsmediation efforts.

Probably in response to the UN groupof experts’ report, Uganda on November13th closed a border crossing near Bun-agana, where M23 has its headquarters.International Crisis Group (ICG) Congoanalyst Thierry Vircoulon said the movewould hurt M23 financially as it hadbeen taxing traffic at the crossing, butwould not of itself prevent continuedmilitary support from Rwanda.

The controversy over the leaked UNreport on the conflict continued mid-month as the UN Security Councildebated it yet again. The US was againstformal publication of the report by theGroup of Experts and Britain in favour,sources in New York told Africa Confi-dential. During the Security Councildiscussions, China and Russia were saidto be indifferent and France, silent. Thediscussions followed the November 12threport by the Chairman of the CongoSanctions Committee, AzerbaijaniAmbassador Agshin Mehdiyev. The onlymatter of substance agreed at the meet-ing was to add Sultani Makenga to theUN travel ban and asset freeze list.

Rwanda’s continuous denials are beinggiven little credence, reports The Times,London (24/11). Britain has describedthe allegations of Rwandan support as“credible and compelling”.

The Rwandan government has sustaineda double game in Eastern DRC, backingrebels while denying involvement to its

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international allies. But this has becomeincreasingly difficult to maintain, saysBen Shepherd of Chatham House. Com-pelling evidence has stacked up for theprovision of logistics, weapons, recruitsand even the active support of its armyto its Congolese allies. Aid has beensuspended or cut, and Kigali has facedunprecedented international scrutiny.

But this pressure has not resulted inthe hoped-for change of heart. Instead,Kigali has deployed a fierce rhetoric ofself-reliance, decrying external med-dling. And, rather than pulling theM23 back, it seems likely to have –at the very least – given its consent forthe M23 to take Goma, humiliating theCongolese government and forcingKabila to negotiate from a position

of weakness. Rwanda and the DRCare caught in a stand-off with bothplaying for high stakes; Kigali willlikely face further international appro-bation, and Kabila’s political base riskscrumbling underneath him. Both willbe hoping the other blinks first.

Ben Payton, an Africa analyst at riskconsultancy Maplecroft, writing forThisisAfrica (21/11) says the ability ofthe M23 to consolidate its dramaticvictory depends on its success in broad-ening its political base. Capturing Gomawill not solve the M23’s underlyingvulnerabilities. The deep mistrustbetween the group’s two leading figures– Bosco Ntaganda and Sultani Makenga– will continue to threaten the unity ofthe movement. Most seriously, thegroup’s greatest asset – the military andfinancial support supplied by Rwanda –is also the source of its greatest liability,namely its reputation locally as thepuppet of a foreign aggressor. As aresult, the group will face acute difficul-ties in attracting local support fromoutside the Rwandophone population,and will struggle to capture and holdhostile territory with limited manpowerand resources. This is particularly thecase since Rwanda is likely to comeunder intense international pressure tocurtail its support for the rebellion.

In Dr Congo, the risk of a coup is high,and will continue to grow if the M23inflicts further losses on the government,or if new rebel movements emerge toexploit the FARDC’s weakness else-where in the country, particularly inthe province of Katanga where there issignificant support for secession.Rwanda is unlikely to seek a furtherescalation for the time-being; it has nowachieved its main objective of establish-ing a buffer zone between itself and theKinshasa-based government, and islikely to be cautious in increasing itssupport for the M23. The actual over-throw of Kabila is far less central toRwanda’s interests, since a return to full-scale war for the first time since 2003would consume huge resources andundermine efforts to create a stablebusiness environment in Rwanda.

On November 20th, the ICG declared:“Regional and international actors mustnow prevent this turning into a newregional war.”

“Long-term solutions will require thatthe UN Security Council, AU andInternational Conference on the GreatLakes Region (ICGLR) ensure thatpeace agreements and stabilization plansno longer remain empty promises. Toachieve this, coordinated and unequivo-cal pressure on the Congolese govern-ment and the M23 rebel movement, aswell as the latter’s external supporters, is

required from international donors andregional actors,” ICG said.

Now the rebels have captured Goma andare willing to negotiate; the governmentshould honour this,” Angelo Izama,analyst and a fellow at the Open SocietyInstitute, told the Un humanitarian andnews analysis service, IRIN (21/11).(Sources as referenced in text) No break-

through p. 19456

Human Rights Abuses

M23 has, according to Jason Stearns,director of the Rift Valley Institute’sUsalama Project, forged alliances withnine armed groups in eastern DRC,including factions of the Raia Mutomb-oki (Angry Citizens) coalition, an anti-Rwandaphone Mai Mai, or rebel, groupnow allied with M23. Most of thesegroups have only a few hundred fightersbut they have managed to inflict somedefeats on an army preoccupied withM23.

Raia Mutomboki and their allies theMai Mai Kifuafua “arbitrarily exe-cuted” at least 264 civilians, including83 children, in Masisi between April andSeptember 2012. according to a reportby human rights investigators, releasedon November 14th. Many victims werehacked to death with machetes whileothers were burnt alive in their homesduring more than 75 rebel attacks onvillages in southern Masisi Territory,located in North Kivu province, thereport notes, according to a joint newsrelease from the UN Joint HumanRights Office (UNJHRO). In the newsrelease, UNJHRO also warned that theactual number of atrocities could be“considerably greater” because securityrestraints prevented the investigatorsfrom being able to confirm “many more”reports of human rights violations.

Noting a “significant increase” in humanrights violations throughout the Kivus,the Secretary-General’s Special Repre-sentative for DRC and head of MON-USCO, Roger Meece, warned that thesecurity situation could worsen.

The UN High Commissioner for HumanRights, Navi Pillay, called on the Con-golese authorities to take immediatemeasures to protect civilian populationsand to combat what she called “persis-tent impunity,” which she said “onlyserves to embolden the killers.”

“The systematic human rights violationscommitted by these armed groups,including the slaughter of so manychildren, are the most serious we haveseen in recent times in the DRC,” sheadded.

The human rights chief also said the UNwas ready to offer support to DRC’srecently launched judicial investigation

The UN Experts’ Report

The leaked UN Experts’ final report saysthat Rwanda commands and controlsM23, supported by deployments in Congoof the Uganda People’s Defence Forces(UPDF). UPDF officials allegedly sentweapons and troops to reinforce M23fighters during operations to seize keytowns in Rutshuru territory, in NorthKivu.

The experts also say that M23 leaderSultani Makenga procured weapons fromUPDF officers, returning from visits tothe Ugandan border town of Kisoro with12.7 mm. machine guns which theyreceived free of charge. They also say theUPDF deployed 600 troops in Busanza,Congo, to prepare for the attacks onRutshuru. Ugandan soldiers formed amixed brigade with RDF troops, totalling2,000 men and outnumbering the entirestrength of M23, which the report puts at1,250. The recruitment of fighters for M23is also under way in Uganda, they add.

The UN Experts name the key UPDFfigures as the Second Division Com-mander, Brigadier Patrick Kankiriho, andMajor Charles Mukasa, the 63rd BattalionCommander at Kisoro. The report saysthat support comes from the top and M23rebels meet weekly with President YoweriKaguta Museveni’s brother and militaryadvisor, Maj. Gen. Caleb Akandwanaho,better known as Salim Saleh. An M23delegation led by its political coordinator,Jean-Marie Runiga Lugerero, spentmonths in Kampala, the Experts report.

The chief point of contention between thetwo governments and the Experts is proof.Rwanda and Uganda protest that there isno concrete evidence because the experts’sources are anonymous. The Experts have,however, described the type of source theyhave relied on. They include: current andformer soldiers of the FARDC, RDF,UPDF and M23; diplomats, border offi-cials, local leaders, civilian eyewitnessesand members of the Congolese, Rwandanand Ugandan governments. (Africa Con-fidential 16/11) UN report p. 19455

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into the atrocities, noting that these“must lead to the prosecution of thoseresponsible for these acts and ensurejustice for the victims.”

The UN refugee agency, UNHCRwarned that fighting had blocked accessto all but one of the 31 camps fordisplaced people in North Kivu.

“The fact that there are now 2.4m IDPs[internally displaced persons] in theDRC, including more than 1.6m inthe Kivus, is a very bleak illustration ofthe dire humanitarian situation thecountry is facing,” the Director of Oper-ations for the UN Office for the Coor-dination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA), John Ging, told reporters atUN Headquarters in New York onNovember 5th. He noted that the UNand its partners had appealed for $791mto provide life-saving assistance to DRCongo in 2012 and have so far onlyreceived $429m. (UN News Service 5,16/11).

As Masisi finds itself surrounded bymilitary elements and mounting con-flict, humanitarian agencies growincreasingly concerned about its civil-ian population. Masisi is a transitcorridor for everything from mineralsto arms, and it is a former strongholdof CNDP. Currently under governmentcontrol, it is also home to the Allianceof Patriots for a Free and SovereignCongo (APCLS), an armed group nowallied with FARDC, the national army.

Northwest of Masisi town is the unpre-dictable Raia Mutomboki. To thenortheast is Mai Mai Cheka, which isknown for beheadings and is said to beengaging with M23. To the south, inMinova, is FARDC, which is alsoknown for rights abuses.

“It’s a terrible road, huge insecurity,tons of militia, hundreds of existingcamps–already it’s a catastrophe,” saidTariq Riebl, humanitarian coordinatorfor the NGO Oxfam.

Five camps for internally displacedpeople northeast of Masisi’s MushakiVillage have emptied out so far – at leastone due to pillaging by Raia Mutomboki– leaving 50,000 people pre-emptively onthe move.

Many of those who fled Masisi havearrived at Mugunga I and Lac Vertcamps just outside Goma.

“Insecurity is hampering aid efforts,with ongoing fighting and attacks pre-venting aid workers from reaching someareas for prolonged periods of time,”said an Oxfam statement (26/11).

On November 14th, the Jesuit RefugeeService (JRS) issued a public statementcalling for MONUSCO and the army tourgently intervene to stop “Congo’s

forgotten conflict” in Masisi. The orga-nization documented at least 18 tit-for-tat killings and the burning ofdisplacement camps and villages, some

despite “the presence of a MONUSCObase less than a kilometre away”. (IRIN27/11)

EGYPTJihadi Organisations On the Rise

Sinai Islamists are spreading inland.

Egyptian police have seized dozens ofbombs and arrested several people alleg-edly planning attacks in the country, theInterior ministry said on October 31st, inan apparent crackdown on militants,AFP reported (31/10).

The ministry said police found 83bombs in a car on a highway outsideCairo, and later arrested two menallegedly linked to them. At a Cairoapartment, they also seized half a kilo-gramme (one pound) of ball bearings,which can be used in bombs to causegreater damage and injury, and a man-ual on bomb manufacture. And theyseparately arrested two men with elec-trical circuit boards that could be usedin bombs.

The statement, which did not say whenthe arrests were made, also described anoperation in late October in which amilitant identified as K.A.A died in anexplosion during a police raid. State-runmedia published contradictory accountson the man’s identity, with some report-ing that he was an Al-Qaeda linkedLibyan and another saying he was Tuni-sian.

The Interior ministry issued a statementcriticising the conflicting accounts, butnot disclosing the man’s identity. AlJazeera Online (25/10) said he was aLibyan national, Karim Ahmad IsamMuhammad al-Azizi.

In a related raid, police arrested threesuspects, including a Tunisian, andseized a suicide bomb vest, explosivesand cell phone detonators, the Interiorministry statement said.

London-based newspaper Al-Hayatwebsite reported on October 27th that“Sinai Jihadis” had moved into theheart of Egypt. Al-Hayat said it hadlearned that the Egyptian IntelligenceDirectorate had taken over the dossierof the interrogation of five peopleaccused of terrorism, and who aresuspected of having links to the attackon the US embassy in Benghazi, Libya(see p. 19508)

Al Hayat quoted Islamic experts as con-firming the spread of jihadi organisationsin Egypt and the need to confront theirideology as well as revise the socialconditions that give rise to violence.

On November 17th local media reportedthat 25 foreigners – citizens of Spain,Britain, Turkey, Serbia and Indonesia –

DRC – Events in November

3rd: The African Union (AU) affirms itssupport for Uganda’s mediation amid arow over Kampala’s involvement inM23 activities.

13th: The UN and US order sanctionsagainst M23 head, Sultani Makenga.

14th: The UN says armed groups in theregion slaughtered over 200 peopleincluding scores of children betweenApril and September.

15th: The Congolese government snubs talkswith the rebels. Fighting breaks outbetween the army and the M23 nearGoma with both sides accusing eachother of fuelling hostilities.

16th: The regional government says 150 M23rebels have died in fighting with gov-ernment troops, but the M23 deniesthis and says its forces have killed ninegovernment soldiers. Congolese offi-cials say the rebels killed were wearingRwandan military uniforms.

17th: A spokesman for the UN peacekeepingforces in the region says the M23 rebelshave taken the town of Kibumba,25km from Goma. UN forces deployattack helicopters against the rebels.The Security Council, meeting in anemergency session strongly condemnsthe latest M23 attacks.

18th: UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moonsays UN forces will stay in Goma,after the rebels say they are closing inon the city.

19th: The rebels issue an ultimatum, warningthat they will continue to fight unlessthe government opens talks within 24hours. Kinshasa rejects their demands.The AU)”strongly condemns” the M23offensive and asks the group to “imme-diately and unconditionally” stop.Amid growing acrimony, Rwandaaccuses the DR Congo army of firinginto its territory, targeting the airportin the border town of Gisenyi.

20th: Rebel fighters move into Goma whose300,000 population is swollen by tensof thousands of refugees from fightingelsewhere in the region. A SecurityCouncil resolution calls for wider sanc-tions against M23 leaders and con-demns all external support for them.Resolution 2076 also condemns M23’shuman rights abuses. Targeted sanc-tions are imposed on the group’s lead-ership.

21st: M23 announces plans to march toKinshasa.

24th: At a summit in Kampala, regionalleaders urge the rebels to abandontheir war, giving them 48 hours towithdraw to at least 20km outsideGoma, while calling on the Kabilagovernment to take steps to resolve therebels’ “legitimate grievances”.

27th: The M23 military chief says rebels willwithdraw from Goma by the end of theweek, after the group makes a string ofdemands.

(© AFP and news agencies)

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suspected of terrorist links, who enteredEgypt as tourists, had been arrested onsuspicion of belonging to a terrorist cell.(Sources as referenced in text)

Coptic Clashes: Five Coptic Christianswere injured on October 29th in clasheswith Muslims at a church in a villagesouth of Cairo, security sourcessaid. The violence came on the eve ofthe vote for a new Coptic Pope (seep. 19508)

Sinai Sacking: Interior Minister AhmedGamal sacked the head of security inNorth Sinai, a day after an attack thatkilled three policeman in the peninsulasparked protests by their colleagues.

Gamal ordered that the head of security,Ahmed Bakr, be replaced by his deputyin response to complaints from policeover Sinai lawlessness. (© AFP, Cairo 29/10, 4/11 2012)

Anniversary Protests: Protesters clashedwith police in Cairo on November 19thleaving dozens injured on the first anni-versary of street battles in 2011 that left45 demonstrators dead, witnesses said.The clashes erupted when protesterstried to destroy a concrete barrier. Amedic said at least 10 policemen and 60protesters were wounded. State-run NileNews TV reported that “one protestorwas shot dead”. (© AFP, Cairo 19/11 2012;MENA 20/11) Demonstrators protest Islamist

power p. 19457

ETHIOPIAMuslim Protestors on Trial

Intolerance of Islam risks fuelling theradicalization the government seeks toavoid.

A packed court in Addis Ababa saw 29protestors face charges of ‘terrorist acts’on October 29th. Ethiopian law defines‘terrorism’ as including serious damageto property and the disruption of publicservices. Those found guilty face a min-imum 15 years’ imprisonment or death.The defendants all pleaded ‘not guilty’.One, Habiba Mohammed, is married toformer Civil Service Minister JunedinSado, who was recently suspended fromthe Oromo People’s Democratic Orga-nisation, part of the ruling EthiopianPeople’s Revolutionary DemocraticFront (EPRDF). She is also accused ofusing money from the Saudi ArabianEmbassy to fund terror groups and payfor protests.

The protestors accuse the government ofpromoting a version of Islam, Al Ah-bash, imported from Lebanon and com-plain that it manipulated the October7th elections to the Ethiopian IslamicAffairs Supreme Council. For the firsttime, these were held in local govern-

ment offices rather than mosques. Thegovernment says such allegations arefabricated by extremists, but it is worriedabout the influence of Salafists fromSomalia, Sudan and Saudi Arabia. Somecritics say the authorities’ heavy-hand-edness risks fuelling the very radicalisa-tion they wish to avoid.

Muslims make up some 34% of thepopulation. At least four people diedin Asasa, Oromia Region, in Aprilwhen protestors attacked a police sta-tion where an imam was detained. OnOctober 21st, three Muslims and apoliceman died in clashes in Gerba inAmhara (p.19466). In July, hundredswere injured and arrested – includingsome of those on trial in November –in disturbances around the Awaliamosque compound. Since then, someof the protestors have taken to wavingyellow placards, as a warning to gov-ernment. (Africa Confidential 2/11)

The government’s intolerance of Islamrisks radicalizing Muslims commentedAlemayehu Fentaw writing in AfricanArguments (16/11) pointing out that theEthiopian constitution provides for free-dom of religion and requires the separa-tion of state and religion… There is littleevidence to support the Government’sclaim that its own Muslim communityposes a legitimate threat to national andregional security… Since Ethiopia is acritical partner in the West’s ‘War onTerror’, the government… seeks to keepWestern support and aid flowingthrough characterizing the Muslim com-munity as linked to Islamic radicals.(African Arguments 16/11)

Amnesty International accused theauthorities of “committing humanrights violations in response to theongoing Muslim protest movement inthe country”. The organization said thepolice was using “excessive force”against peaceful demonstrators. HumanRights Watch says it is deeply con-cerned that Ethiopia’s government hasrepeatedly used terrorism-related pros-ecutions to clamp down on lawfulfreedom of speech and assembly.“Many of these trials have been polit-ically motivated and marred by seriousdue process violations,” a HRWresearcher, told IRIN. (IRIN, Addis Ab-aba 15/11)

On October 27th, the Charities andSocieties Agency (CSoA) shut down 10NGOs and cautioned 476 others. TheIslamic Religion Research Centre(IRRC) and Awelia School had theirregistration revoked, having “strayedfrom their mandate” and being“involved in religious activities”. (TheReporter, Addis Ababa 27/10).

ONLF Talks Stall: Hopes for animminent end to conflict in Ethiopia’s

Somali region were dashed in Octoberwhen talks between the governmentand the separatist OgadenNational Liberation Front (ONLF)broke down.

Hosted by Kenya in Nairobi, thenegotiations started in September, withEthiopia’s delegation led by DefenceMinister Siraj Fegessa and the ONLFteam headed by Abdirahman Mahdi,ONLF Foreign Secretary. They agreednegotiation process modalities and theinitial agenda, the ONLF said.

Despite optimism from both parties,the talks fell at the first hurdle, withthe government insisting the rebels firstaccept the country’s constitution, ademand rejected by the ONLF as abreach of the talks’ agreed modalities.(IRIN, Nairobi 29/10)

GUINEA BISSAU“Coup Mastermind” Arrested

Fear levels are high in the aftermath ofthe army barracks attack.

The October 21st attack – when soldiersstormed barracks near Bissau’s mainairport, targeting military figures andleaving six people dead – has provokedmore fear than the numerous coups andcounter-coups of recent years, reportedIRIN (9/11).

The transitional government brandedthe attack a coup attempt, and accusedformer colonial power Portugal of back-ing it in an attempt to propel formerPrime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior,who is in exile there, back into power.Africa Confidential (2/11) pointed outthat these accusations were “withoutevidence”.

Within days, alleged coup leader Cap-tain Pansau N’Tchama was arrested onthe island of Bolama, in the Bijagosarchipelago. He is expected to facea military court later in the year. Hewas arrested along with at least twoother suspects, Al Jazeera reported(28/10).

A government spokesman said Ntchamahad used a vehicle belonging to a former

GAMBIA SENEGAL

GUINEA

GUINEA-BISSAU

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Farim

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Fulacunda

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member of Gomes Junior’s governmentto carry out the attack. Ntchama was thehead of a commando unit believed tohave assassinated President Joao Ber-nardo Vieira in 2009. He had returned inOctober from Portugal where he hadbeen undergoing military training sinceJuly 2009, Al Jazeera reported securitysources as saying. The captain is also aformer associate of the governmentoverthrown in the April coup. Yet noone can explain why he should attempt asuicidal attack on one of the bestequipped and well manned bases, AfricaConfidential pointed out.

Although Guinea-Bissau’s history is lit-tered with coups, counter-coups andattempted coups, most ordinary Bissau-Guineans have not been involved ordirectly affected.

However, October’s attack has rampedup tensions, largely because it took placeduring a dedicated transition periodbacked by regional bloc the EconomicCommunity of West African States(ECOWAS) and designed to lead Gui-nea-Bissau towards fresh elections inApril 2013, said IRIN.

ECOWAS on November 11th extendedthe initial six-month mandate of itsmission in Bissau (ECOMIB) by anothersix months. The decision was taken atthe emergency summit of the WestAfrican leaders in Abuja Nigeria, a fewdays after ECOWAS and Guinea-Bissausigned the Status of Mission Agreement(SOMA) formalising the deployment ofthe force in May 2012.

The summit called upon the AfricanUnion (AU) to recognise the Transi-tional Government in Guinea Bissau,established with the facilitation of ECO-WAS.

‘‘In addition, they urge the AU tosuspend the sanctions imposed on Gui-nea Bissau as an encouragement to thetransitional authorities and in recogni-tion of the progress the country contin-ues to make towards forging a moreinclusive transitional government topave the way for the peaceful restorationof full constitutional order in the coun-try,’’ the communique said.

The summit was attended by 10 of the 15ECOWAS Heads of States from Nigeria,Benin, Senegal, Togo, Mali, BurkinaFaso, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Coted’Ivoire and Niger, as well as represen-tatives of the AU and the UN, amongothers, PANA reported (11/11).

ECOMIB troops have no clear duties andare poorly housed and supplied, AfricaConfidential pointed out. It said thatgovernment soldiers’ mistreatment ofopposition members (see below) exposesECOMIB’s impotence and the army’sclaims not to interfere politically.

Human Rights Setback

The attack also raised fears of risinghuman rights abuses: Two politicians,Yancuba Djola Indjai from the Solidarityand Labour Party (PST) and SilvestreAlves, leader of the Democratic Move-ment of Guinea Bissau (MDG) werebadly beaten by soldiers the day after thecoup attempt and a Portuguese journal-ist was expelled from the country. Thegovernment denied the involvement ofthe armed forces in beating up the twopoliticians and ‘vehemently condemnedsuch brutal actions” at a news confer-ence, Portuguese RTP Africa TVreported (23/10).

On November 6th Luis Ocante da Silva,who was an ally of the ex-army headJos�e Zamora Induta, was abducted fromhis home by a group of uniformed men,and was on November 9th reported tohave died from his wounds.

“The last time I saw this level of fearamong activists and commentators wasin the build-up to the civil war in the late1990s,” a former diplomat told IRIN oncondition of anonymity. “People arereally afraid to talk in public aboutpolitics or even initiatives,” he said. “Ithas also raised tensions between ethnic-ities as so many difficult questions reartheir heads regarding Bissau’s future.”

Since the April coup several sources saydrug trafficking hasmounted. Twoplanesfull of cocaine allegedly landed on themainland in late October/early Novem-ber: in Gabu, southeast of the capitalBissau on November 5th and in Catio,southwestern Bissau, the week before.

October’s events were a setback forhuman rights inGuinea-Bissau, say rightsgroups. Several arrests have been madesince N’Tchama was caught in late Octo-ber. At least two journalists have goneinto hiding, and – as yet unfounded –rumours of assassinations are circulating.

“Having human rights is one thing, butapplying them is something else entirely,Fernando Texeira, coordinator ofhuman rights group Casa dos Direitosin Bissau, said.

“We’re working on outreach projects toinform people that they have humanrights, but what kind of rights do theyreally have right now? We have to askourselves whether the future will bringtrue justice and liberty to Bissau,” saidTexeira.

The Casa dos Direitos building, whichwas once Bissau’s main jail, includes aroom that is equipped with seats and aprojector for talks and debates, he said.“We planned to invite people to comeand speak about human rights andpolitics, but people are afraid… Nobodyfeels comfortable discussing their polit-

ical views with people they don’t knowor trust at the moment.”

Guinea Bissau ranks 176 out of 187countries on theUNhuman developmentindex; just over half of the adult popula-tion is literate; life expectancy at birth is48 years. After months of on-off strikingby teachers, schools remain closed despitean agreement having been signed betweenteachers and the transition government,IRIN reported. (Sources as referenced intext) Raid on elite barracks p. 19457

KENYAMassacre of Policemen

North-eastern residents flee fearing abacklash as the army is called in after42 policemen are killed by cattlerustlers.

The death toll from a weekend ambushon Kenyan police officers in the north ofthe country – the deadliest ever – hadrisen to 42 by mid-November. “We havenever lost such a big number of officers,”AFP (12/11) quoted a police source assaying on condition of anonymity.

107 officers hunting cattle thieves wereambushed by gunmen onNovember 10thin Baragoi, Samburu County, a remotedistrict in Kenya’s arid north. The groupof rustlers police were pursuing werealready suspected of killing 13 people ina raid onOctober 30th. Police set out afterthe rustlers when a deadline for the returnof the cattle expired. The rustlers alsostole firearms from the slain officers, whowere from the regular and administrationpolice, GSU and the anti-stock theft unit,before fleeing into Suguta Valley,the Daily Nation (19/11) reported.

The National Security Council, chairedby President Mwai Kibaki, then author-ised the deployment of the military intoSamburu, PANA reported (14/11).Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF) Infor-mation Operations Commander, Col.Cyrus Oguna, said the force receivedorders to deploy to Samburu countywhere it would mount a security opera-tion to disarm locals. It would exercisewhat they called the “principle of min-imum force, with utmost considerationand concern for innocent civilians,”

The national security council said themilitary would provide support to thepolice in apprehending the bandits andrecovering stolen animals and arms. Res-idents in Baragoi, the main town inSamburu North district, said there hadbeen abig build-up of police officers in thetown.

The joint military-police operationcreated massive panic in Turkana Southand Central constituencies after reportsof the deployment reached the villages.

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MPs from Turkana County called a pressconference to condemn the use of themilitary. They said the President “willtake full responsibility” as the Com-mander in Chief for any human rightsviolations that will be wrought on inno-cent people in the region, including tor-ture, The Standard reported (16/11).

Meanwhile, the Kenyan authoritiescharged local government officials andelected leaders in Samburu with 32counts of murder. The local chiefs andfour area councillors were charged incourt with murder. The reason for theircharges were unknown. The suspectswere detained for 14 days to allow forinvestigations.

Lack of Security Capacity Exposed

Cattle theft and the ensuing clashesbetween rival pastoralist groups claimdozens of lives every year in northernKenya. However, it is rare for policeofficers to be attacked. The violence wasnot believed to be linked to politics, butit raised concerns over security and alack of police capacity in volatile areasahead of elections due to take place inMarch, said AFP.

Wilfred Kapondi, chairman of the par-liamentary committee on security, saidthat the attack had “exposed our secu-rity force’s lack of capacity”. “It is timethey took serious action and ensure thepolice have adequate machinery to dealwith criminals,” Kapondi told reporters.

Privately-owned daily newspaper TheStandard (13/11) called the police mis-sion a “doomed” one. It said thatmany ofthose killed by armed so-called Ngorokobandits were “fresh out of college.” TheStandard was “baffled” that police offi-cers drawnmainly fromNakuru, andveryunfamiliar with the rugged and hillytopography of Suguta valley and sur-rounding areas, were sent on this missionwithout air or even intelligence cover.TheStandard said that policemen had been“slaughtered” adding that “top govern-ment officials should hang their heads inshame” that the bodies of the fallen wereleft to decompose in open trucks amidclaims a helicopter to transport them hadbroken down.

British High Commissioner in KenyaChristian Turner said that the massacrewas a clear indication that many illegalgroups in the country possessed hugearsenals capable of destabilizing secu-rity. KBC Radio, Nairobi (18/11)reported him as saying that his gov-ernment was ready and willing to trainlocal police officers in disarmament sothat the exercise could be conducted ina more humane way without infringingon the human rights of the suspectsand the innocent people as well.

The Daily Nation later reported (19/11)that the cattle rustlers in Baragoi wereusing women and children as humanshields to avoid arrest. Rift Valley Pro-vincial Police boss John M’Mbijjiwe,who was leading the crackdown, toldthe Nation that they were having diffi-culty separating women and childrenfrom the suspects hiding in the SugutaValley.

However, he said only 35 security agentswere killed, although independentsources put the toll at 41 or 42. A policechopper had been conducting aerialsurveillance in Suguta Valley in prepa-ration for a swoop by a joint force of thepolice and the army.

Meanwhile, hundreds of residents werefleeing Baragoi for Maralal Town, astension continued to rise in the area andmore police officers continued to arrivein the township, which was beingpatrolled day and night.

A senior police officer told the Nationthat Turkana South MP JosephatNanok and his Turkana Central coun-terpart Ekwee Ethuro would be chargedin court with incitement to violence. Thedetectives were also expected to interro-gate Labour minister John Munyes whotold a press conference at ParliamentBuildings after the massacre that policeshould have sought their help to con-vince the rustlers to return the animalsinstead of planning the military opera-tion.

Mr Nanok, who is also Forestry assis-tant minister, warned that PresidentKibaki risked being taken to the Inter-national Criminal Court for authorisingthe deployment of the army. (Sources asreferenced in text)

Garissa Killings

Kenyan military officers heading to amission area in Somalia, avoided return-ing fire to minimize collateral damage inGarissa, when gunmen opened fire, kill-ing three of the five officers, the militarysaid on November 19th.

The KDF said communication equip-ment used by the terror suspects wereseized after the joint military and thepolice crackdown was launched. Therewas heavy gunfire around Garissa townafter the army officers came under fire.The streets across the town weredeserted as the crackdown continued.

At least 35 people sustained seriouswounds after being beaten by the jointmilitary and police patrols. Dozens ofcivilians were shown on local televisionstation passing through a joint securitycheckpoint, hands raised in the air.

The Garissa Provincial hospital received35 victims of the crackdown, most of

them having suffered head injuries. Onevictim said he recalled receiving kicksand blows before one officer remarked:“You are used to killing police officers,today, you did it to the wrong people.”

KDF Information Commander, Col.Oguna, said the five officers who cameunder fire were part of an African UnionMission in Somalia (AMISOM) contin-gent joining the operation in sector II, insouthern Somalia, PANA reported (19/11).

Fresh violence broke out on November20th, with one person killed and sevenothers shot and wounded, officials said,a day after security forces cracked downon rioters.

Several other people were also hospita-lised, some of them after being beatenwith clubs by security forces in a crack-down following the killing of the threesoldiers.

Kenya Red Cross said that one personhad died and 48 others – including sevenwith gunshot wounds – were beingtreated at Garissa hospital. However,“relative calm and normalcy” hadreturned to the town by late afternoon,it added in a statement. Garissa’s mainmarket was torched during the violence.

The government however, was taken totask on November 22nd over allegedbrutality and destruction by the militaryin Garissa in an emotional session ofparliament, Capital FM Radio, Nairobireported.

The Cabinet on November 22ndapproved the establishment of aninquiry into the killing of security offi-cials and the subsequent destruction ofproperty in both Baragoi and Garissa.

President Mwai Kibaki chaired themeeting at the State House Nairobi,which also approved the reconstructionof the destroyed Garissa market andhelp for the traders to resume operationsas soon as possible.

A grenade attack on a church in Garissahad wounded seven people on Novem-ber 4th. (© AFP, Nairobi 4/11; PANA, 19/11; Capital FM 22/11)

Eastleigh Bomb: Clashes erupted in amainly Somali area of Nairobi onNovember 19th after a deadly busbombing, the latest attack blamed onsympathisers of Somalia’s al-Qaeda-linked al Shabaab.

Police and hospital sources also said afurther two people had succumbed totheir injuries from the November18thbus bombing in the capital’s Eastleighdistrict, bringing the death toll to nine.This was later amended to 10.

Police used tear gas and fired into the airto contain rioting in Eastleigh after non-

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Somali Kenyans turned on Somalis andattacked their shops and stalls, accusingthem of responsibility for the bomb.(© AFP, Garissa & Nairobi 19,20/11)

MRC Leader Freed: Mombasa Republi-can Council (MRC) leader OmarMwamnuadzi has been released on bondafter spending 25 days in Shimo la TewaPrison. Also set free was his wife Maim-una Mwavyombo who was capturedtogether with her husband and twochildren on October 15th at Kombaniin Kwale County.

The leader, who faces seven charges, andhis family had been unable to pay Shs1m ($12,000) each as bail for more thanthree weeks.

Three other MRC leaders, spokesmanMohamed Rashid Mraja, Secretary-General Hamza Randu and Salim Ham-isi Mlamba who heads MRC’s council ofelders remain incarcerated. (The Standard13/11)

A grenade attack in the coastal city ofMombasa on November 16th left fourpeople seriously wounded, including alocal chief, a government official said.(© AFP, Mombasa 16/11 2012) Warning to

separatists p. 19458

LIBYASafe to Return?

Bani Walid is shakily coming back tolife but tensions remain.

In October, the desert town of Bani Waliwas a war zone. By mid-November itwas coming back to life, reported Mag-harebia.com with citizens able to resumetheir normal activities

“Every day is better than the previousone and steadily improving. The securitycommittee controls all the intersectionsof the city, which is protected by thenational army and the security forces,”Local Governance Minister Mohamedal-Hrari told Deutsche Welle.

Troops loyal to the Libyan governmentcaptured the flashpoint city on October24th. Hundreds of loyalist fighters,mostly from the rival town of Misrata,AFP reported, entered the town andhoisted the national flag atop aban-doned buildings. Later that day Libyanarmy chief-of-staff, Yussef al-Mangouch,officially announced the end of all mil-itary operations in the town, despitesome pockets of resistance.

Government spokesman Nasser al-Manaa said that about 100 suspectswere arrested in Bani Walid in connec-tion with crimes committed during the2011 revolution – namely combatantswho sided with Gaddafy forces. Speak-ing at a news conference, Manaa also

gave a death toll of 50 governmentforces killed and said hundreds werewounded in the battles with “well-trained combatants in Bani Walid whopossessed modern weapons.”

Defence Minister Osama al-Jueili gave ableak assessment of conditions in thetown on October 29th saying that armedgroups were preventing families fromreturning home. “The town is com-pletely empty except for a small numberof people who are living in tragic con-ditions; there is no activity; the impact ofshelling is visible everywhere,” the min-ister said.

Some 500 homes were burned in the cityduring the recent clashes between Lib-yan government-controlled forces andformer Gaddafy loyalists. “We havetasked a committee drawn from fourengineering offices to fully survey dam-aged homes and dwellings in the city.Victims will have their rents covered forthree months,” Dr. al-Hrari said.

The army is in control of the city and thepopulation is now less worried, accord-ing to Mouin Chernam, Director of thePolitical Section of the United NationsMission in Libya, quoted byMagharebiaon November 20th.. He also noted thatdisplaced people were returning toschools and hospitals were becomingfully functional.

With the reactivation of the police andjudicial services, things will quicklyimprove,” Colonel Mohammed Jeraasaid.

The Bani Walid clashes exacerbatedtribal tensions and underscored the dif-ficulties of achieving national reconcili-ation. Tribal elders and commanders inthe town had repeatedly called intoquestion the neutrality of the army,which is still being formed, and accused“lawless Misrata militias” of seeking todestroy Bani Walid. (Magharebia.com 20/11; © AFP Bani Walid 24,29/10 2012)

Twenty-four Libyans wounded in theBani Walid fighting were flown to Italyon November 22nd for treatment there.There were several hundred casualties inthe October fighting, among fighters onboth sides and the town’s residents.Precise numbers of dead and wounded,however, have not been divulged.(Libyan Herald 22/11)

Armed clashes broke out on November10th between armed elements in theneighbouring towns of Kabau and Tijiwith dozens said killed or injured. (AlWatan 10/11)

Protests Law

The national assembly announced onNovember 13th the ratification of a lawgoverning the organisation of protests

that could lead to jail sentences, follow-ing a series of security breaches at itspremises.

The spokesman of the General NationalCongress, Omar Hmeidan, said the lawwas passed due to the “exceptionalcircumstances” of the country, addingthat it did not aim to restrict the right todemonstrate, but was a measure tocombat chaos.

The law stipulates that organisers mustgive the authorities 48-hour notice onthe place and time of the event. Offend-ers are liable to a prison sentence of upto six months and a fine of up to LibyanDinars 5,000 (about $4,000). The sen-tence could be higher if the demonstra-tor is armed.

Protesters and gunmen have stormed theassembly on several occasions in pastweeks, with some entering as far as thechamber where sessions are held anddisrupting a session to vote on a newgovernment. The security of the site hasbeen of concern for the 200 members ofthe assembly, with one bloc floating theidea of shifting meetings to the east ofthe country until safety can be guaran-teed.

Nearly 100 gunmen backed by heavyweapons kept the national assemblyunder siege on November 1st in protestat the new premier’s cabinet lineup andalleged links of some ministers to Gad-dafy’s regime.

Rival militias fired guns and rocket-propelled grenades at each other inTripoli on November 4th and set fire toa former intelligence building. At leastfive people were wounded and a straybullet entered a hospital in the heart ofthe city. Residents rushed to arm them-selves, saying calls to police had goneunheeded. After more than 12 hours, thearmy moved in to restore order. (© AFP,Tripoli 6,13/11 2012; The Independent, London4/11)

Trials: A Benghazi military council sen-tenced five former Gaddafy regime offi-cers to death, Libya Herald reported onNovember 8th. The officers were con-victed of committing war crimes, humanrights violations and rape during the2011 Libyan revolution. Three otherofficers received ten-year prison sen-tences.

Meanwhile, a Benghazi court orderedthe interrogation of former LibyanNational Transitional Council (NTC)chief Mustafa Abdel Jalil over the 2011killing of rebel commander Abdul FattahYounes, Tripoli Post reported. (Maghare-bia.com 9/11)

Moammer Gaddafy’s last prime ministerbecame the highest ranking formerregime official to go before Libyan

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judges, in a brief court appearance onNovember 12th. Al-Baghdadi al-Mahm-udi “is accused of committing prejudicialacts against the security of the state andfinancial crimes”. The trial wasadjourned until December 10th. (AFP,Tripoli 12/11)

Political Killings: The body of Abdelbas-set bin Naama, a member of the transi-tional council that governed the countryafter the ouster of Gaddafy, was foundon November 5th in Tripoli. He hadbeen shot in the head and his bodymutilated. The prosecutor general said aspecial committee had been created toprobe the death. Bin Naama was one ofthe founding members of a rebel brigadein Tarhuna, 120 km southeast of Tripoli,and had fought to free his town from theformer regime.

In a separate incident in the eastern cityof Benghazi, the body of retired colonelAbdelkarim Mahfud, who had joined the2011 revolt in its early stages, wasdiscovered on his farm. (© AFP, Tripoli6/11 2012) Deadly clashes p. 19458

MALITouaregs Battle Islamists

Momentum to reclaim the north growsbut attempts to bring Ansar Dine andthe Touareg MNLA on side provokedisagreement.

Dozens of people – some of themunarmed – were killed in a remote partof northern Mali as Islamist fightersbacked by al-Qaeda in the Land of the

Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) routedTouareg rebels, AFP (20/11) quoted asecurity source as saying on November20th.

The Malian security source called thekillings “a real massacre” and said thebodies of some of those slain in violencethat began on November 16th still dot-ted the arid village of Menaka, in thenortheastern Gao region, just above theNiger border.

“Unarmed people were shot in coldblood,” the source said. “There needs tobe a genuine international investigationto find out what happenedat Menaka.” Other witnesses and fightersconfirmed that dozens had been killed.

The latest violence in northern Mali, inthe hands of Islamist rebels since shortlyafter a March coup in Bamako, comesamid growing international momentumto reclaim the sparsely populated desertland.

A hodgepodge of Islamist and Touareggroups, some homegrown, others for-eign, have seen alliances rise and falter inthe months of chaos. A small but wellarmed network of extremists has contin-ued to dig in across Mali’s lawless desert.“The strength of the core fighters fromvarious nationalities of all movements isestimated to be between 2,500 and 3,000coming from Africa, Europe and Asia,”an ECOWAS (Economic Community ofWest African States) battle documentsaid. A list of weapons available to themincluded anti-aircraft guns and surface-to-air missiles.

Several dozen Algerian jihadists arrivedin Timbuktu to reinforce the AQLIMcamp, who have toughened their appli-cation of strict Islamic law, AFP (25/11)quoted a security source as saying. Headded that the fabled city of Timbuktuwas “increasingly becoming the head-quarters of AQLIM in northern Mali.”Timbuktu residents said sharia law inthe city was being tightened withtelevisions confiscated and women notwearing veils arrested. Africa Report(29/10) said hundreds of jihadists fromnorthern African countries and Sudanhad been flocking into northern Malibut the MNLA denied the reports.

Starting on November 16th, local Toua-reg rebels who want to establish theindependent homeland called Azawadbattled with the Islamist group, theMovement for Oneness and Jihad inWest Africa (MUJAO), which is backedby AQLIM.

The fighting was focused in Ansongo,about 200 km west of Menaka, and inMenaka itself, where the Touareg rebelshad hoped to establish a base fromwhich to launch counter-offensivesagainst the Islamists.

A lawmaker for the Menaka district,Bajan Ag Hamato, said some of hisfellow Touareg had been killed “defend-ing the town against MUJAO”, includ-ing local political leader Alwabegat AgSalakatou and six of his entourage.

He said that although they had beenlabelled as members of the Touaregrebels’ Azawad National LiberationMovement (MNLA), “in reality theywere local patriots who wanted todefend their town”. It was not immedi-ately possible to confirm who had beenkilled in the violence. A security sourcefrom Niger said four seriously injuredMNLA fighters had been evacuated toNiger’s capital Niamey.

The MNLA had previously claimed itsfighters killed 65 MUJAO and AQLIMmembers, suffering just one death and 13injuries on its side, but MUJAO said itkilled more than 100 MNLA fightersand took 20 prisoners.

The fighting picked up again on Novem-ber 19th as the Islamist groups werebolstered by reinforcements, witnessestold AFP, saying the MNLA werechased from the town.

A regional security source on November20th said the Islamists controlled mostof Menaka.

The MNLA initially fought alongsidethe Islamist groups now controllingnorthern Mali, but the more secularTouareg fighters were soon sidelined.

Mauritanian analyst Cheikh Ould Mo-hamed Harma said that the “MNLA inparticular wants today more than ever toattract attention to itself as an effectiveforce in combating terrorism in theAzawad region so as to impose itself asa part of solution to the Malian crisis.”

“MUJAO is currently going through acrisis, and is heading towards demobili-sation and a split,” Nigerien ForeignMinisterMohamed Bazoum said Novem-ber 14th in Paris. Bazoum’s comments

Madagascar

Military Operation Out of Control

The rampaging security forces must bebrought under control in the south of thecountry, Amnesty International said afterwidespread state killings of civilians overcattle theft, and a failure to protecthundreds from mass communal murder.

Official sources have claimed that ongoing‘Operation Tandroka’, which started inSeptember, has seen 40 cattle thieves(dahalos) killed and 76 arrested in thesouthern region of Anosy. Cattle-rustlinggangs reportedly killed 14 state securityofficers earlier in the year.

However, witnesses have told AI thatelderly people, the physically disabled,children, and others unable to flee theirhomes were burned alive when securityforces indiscriminately set fire to villagesas part of the military operation.

There are even allegations of extrajudicialexecutions with the Special InterventionForces involved. (Amnesty International19/11)

ALGERIA

Taoudenni

Timbuktu

Mopti

HomboriTondo

Ségou

Kayes

Kita

Koutiala

Sikasso

Kidal

Gao

NIGER

BURKINA FASO

Niger

Senegal

Niger

18

24

400

200

2000

0 400 mi

km6

0

12

TOGOGHANA

BENIN

6CÓTE D’IVOIRE

12

12

GUINEA

12

24

MAURITANIA

S A H A R A

18

SENEGAL

BAMAKO

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came just days after a senior leader fromthe terror group defected, handing him-self in to Nigerien authorities in Niamey.Hicham Bilal was once the MUJAOcommander in Gao, Magharebia.comreported (19/11) (see box).

Also on November 20th, one person waskilled and three others injured as arocket-propelled grenade they were car-rying accidentally exploded in the court-yard of Iyad Ag Ghaly, the leader ofAnsar Dine, according to an electedofficial from the Kidal region north ofGao. (© AFP, Bamako 20/11 2012; Mag-harebia.com 19/11)

West African Security Plan Agreed

No one could accuse West Africa ofrushing into a war in northern Mali,commented Africa Confidential (16/11). Itis eight months since the putsch bydissident soldiers in Bamako againstPresident Amadou Toumani Tour�e andthe subsequent takeover of the north byjihadist militias. It was not until Novem-ber 11th that ECOWAS met in Abujaand finally agreed to send in troops:3,300 from Nigeria, Niger, Senegal andBurkina Faso. They will fight beside the5,000 Malian soldiers who will lead thecampaign to reconquer the three north-ern provinces: Timbuktu, Gao and Ki-dal. France, Britain and Germany areoffering 200 military trainers and airsupport. Neighbouring Algeria andMauritania won’t join the campaignbut have promised not to obstruct itand may help with logistics, AfricaConfidential said.

News agencies added that attempts toflesh out combat plans have snagged onthe reluctance of some countries to pitchtheir troops into a conflict with noobvious exit strategy, insiders added.Algeria, a key regional power, “had notwarmed to the idea of intervention,” anEcowas negotiator said. Although theyare not members of ECOWAS, Algeriaand Mauritania share thousands ofkilometres of borders with Mali acrossthe Sahara. They also both have sub-stantial and vital desert training, militaryofficials say.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clintontravelled to Algiers on October 29th topress the authorities to support theECOWAS initiative. But Algiers stillhopes dialogue will succeed. ForeignMinister Mourad Medelci said onNovember 20th that it was “Malianswho would only reap adverse results”from a military intervention.

The military plan has been accepted byECOWAS and the Peace and SecurityCouncil of the African Union (AU). AUCommission Chair, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, was in Paris in late Novembermeeting top officials at the same time as

Niger’s President, Mahamadou Issoufou,who had already toured Europe to alertgovernments to the growing securitythreats in the Sahel. Next stop was theUnited Nations (UN) Security Council,which asked to see the detailed plan byNovember 26th. It is also expected toback it unanimously and offer finance.France wants the soldiers to move assoon as possible, Britain and the UnitedStates argue for better if lengthier prep-aration. Military action is unlikelybefore January at the earliest, AfricaConfidential said.

UN special envoy for the Sahel regionRomano Prodi said, however, expertsthought it could take until September2013 for troops to be ready for deploy-ment, AFP reported (19/11). “It isnecessary to prepare for military actionto be credible. My mission is to doeverything to ensure peace and avoidwar,” the former Italian premier said.

This timeline was confirmed by a Ba-mako-based diplomat, citing seasonrains. “The majority view is that militaryintervention is unlikely to take placebefore September. Before then, the morepeople who can be removed from thebattlefield through negotiations, the bet-ter,” he said.

European Union (EU) Foreign ministerson November 19th agreed in principle tosupport the ECOWAS plan and to senda military training mission to Mali.Under the plan, some 250 Europeanofficers would be sent to train Maliancombat units and help restructure thecountry’s weakened army in a missionthat could start as early as January andlast through the year. The trainingmission, to cost some €5 to 6m year,would run in conjunction with theECOWAS/AU plan. (Sources asreferenced in text)

Talk and/or Fight?

The difficult balancing act to try andrestore state authority is a mix ofattempted negotiations and a militaryoperation. While some have presentedthe military intervention as a fait accom-pli, divisions still remain on whether it isthe best solution. The ECOWAS plan isfor a “two-pronged approach”. RomanoProdi said, after talks with AlgerianPresident Abdelaziz Bouteflika, it was“a last resort”, Algerian news agency,APS reported (8/11). “We still have thechance to work for peace,” Prodi wasquoted as saying.

Facing the spectre of military action,both the MNLA and Ansar Dine, havesaid they are ready for talks – the AnsarDine called on November 6th for otherfighters to join it in political dialogueand said it “rejects all forms of extrem-ism and terrorism”. But the Touaregs’

weakened position could hamper anybid for a peaceful resolution and therehave been no contacts for talks withMujao and AQLIM.

Observers have warned that divisions inthe region over how to act pose signif-icant challenges to a military interven-tion. Mali’s other significant neighbour,Mauritania, like Algeria, favours calledfor dialogue to solve the crisis. There isalso a lack of cohesion in Bamako,where an interim regime has failed toassert itself and the former junta holdssignificant sway.

ECOWAS is pushing the Mali govern-ment to offer the MNLA autonomy inexchange for joining the fight against thehardline al Qaeda-linked terrorists. Italso hopes to persuade moderate mem-bers of Ansar Dine to join forces withthe Touaregs.

Burkinabe Foreign Minister Djibril Bas-sol�e, mediating between the Mali gov-ernment and northern-based groups,said: “Mali cannot accept the impositionof sharia [law] through arms. But theycan look at a form of autonomy, decen-tralisation or power-sharing if AnsarDine and the MNLA lay down theirweapons. Both groups have reiteratedtheir willingness to cooperate with thegovernment on that basis.”

“The idea is that after the liberation ofthe north, Mali will give Azawad someautonomy. The most likely model is[neighbouring] Niger, where the Toua-regs of Agadez and Zindar are semi-autonomous,” said a senior ECOWASnegotiator who confirmed the plan hadbeen tabled.

A spokesman for Ansar Dine, SanadOuld Bouamama, told Al-Arabiya (6/11)that external military intervention risksturning northern Mali “into anotherSomalia”. He said France should takethe blame if negotiations failed.

French President Francois Hollande saidhe opposed talks with groups “linked toterrorism” in Mali’s north, but did notspecify to which groups he was referring.

Hollande was speaking after meetingPresident Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz ofMauritania, AFP reported.

One of the many problems with grant-ing the Touaregs any kind of auton-omy in exchange for their support isthat it could embolden dozens ofseparatist movements across WestAfrica, the Guardian, London, pointedout (22/11). Similar separatist groupsin the region, such as Morocco’sPolisario Front and Senegal’s Casa-mance militants, who have fought hardto redraw Africa’s colonial borders,will be following the developmentsclosely.

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MNLA spokesperson Moussa Ag Acha-ratoumane said the group was willing to“put differences on hold” and unite in amilitary alliance against al-Qaeda affili-ates.

Moderates could weaken Islamistgroups by splintering them but the blazeof renewed fighting in late Novemberhighlighted the risks of backing anyrebel group. “It’s a very, very delicatequestion who to let onside. It’s a mar-riage of convenience but there aregroups with vested interests who maywork with the government now, turnagainst them tomorrow,” an Africandiplomat also involved in the talks said.

Meanwhile, a coalition of Malian polit-ical parties and a citizen’s associationbased in the Islamist-occupied north onNovember 25th objected to Algeria andBurkina Faso’s role in mediating theircountry’s crisis, saying they were givingtoo much leeway to the armed groups.

The Union of Patriotic Democrats forthe End of the Crisis (ADPS) – acoalition of political parties and associ-ations – demanded that Mali’s interimgovernment “officially and publicallyreject” Burkinabe President Blaise Com-paore’s role as chief mediator.

The group accused Compaore of pro-moting the interests of Touareg sepa-

ratists and Ansar Dine and giving“carte blanche to these deserters andcriminals who have the blood of hun-dreds of civilians and soldiers on theirhands.”

Burkina Faso’s Le Republicain newspa-per (15/11) warned that Ansar Dinemay be insincere in the negotiations.

Frenchman Kidnapped: The delay in aplanned international offensive came asFrench President Hollande confirmed aFrench national had been kidnappedon November 20th in the south-westMali town of Kayes, near the borderwith Senegal and Mauritania. Francehas been using drones for surveillancein Mali but will not send groundtroops.

MUJAO spokesman Abu Walid Sahra-oui said the group claimed responsibilityfor the kinapping of 61-year old GilbertoRodriguez Leal, who was born in Portu-gal but is a French citizen.

“With God’s blessing, the mujahedin areholding a Frenchman, whose countrywants to lead armies against the Muslimpeople,” Abdoul Hicham, a top MUJAOleader, told AFP.

The kidnapping brings to 13 the numberof hostages held by hardline Islamists inthe region: nine other Europeans, beingheld by AQLIM and three Algerians,abducted by MUJAO.

Gilberto said he blamed France’s foreignpolicy for his abduction and urged Paristo respond to his captors’ demands, in avideo shown on November 26th. Thevideo, published by Mauritanian newswebsite Alakhbar, showed a bespecta-cled, unshaven man with white hairflanked by two men carrying rifles andwearing beige uniforms, independentonline news reported (26/11).

Mali’s prime minister, Cheick ModiboDiarra, arrived in Paris on November26th to hold talks with Foreign ministerLaurent Fabius about the possible mili-tary intervention. (Sources as referenced intext)

NIGERIAConditional Ceasefire Offer

The government is wary, concernedBoko Haram no longer acts as oneentity.

A man claiming to be speaking on behalfof Jama’atu Ahlis Sunnah Lidda’awatiwal Jihad (Boko Haram) told journalistsin Maiduguri, via a teleconference heheld on November 1st, that the sect wasready for a ceasefire on four conditions,which included the release of all itsmembers from detention, reported DailyTrust, Abuja (2/11).

Mali in Brief

2nd: Ansar Dine sends delegations to Algeriaand Burkina Faso to hold peace talks.

6th: Ansar Dine, which has occupied key citiessuch as Timbuktu for seven months, callsfor dialogue and a halt to hostilities. Ajihadist described as “French-African”arrested in the centre of Mali allegedlyseeking to join the armed extremists hasbeen identified by France as Ibrahim AzizOuattara. He was travelling on falsedocuments and freely expressed his wishto “die a martyr.” Regional securitysources warn that French citizens orAfricans living in Europe are attemptingto sign up with the jihadists.EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashtonvisits Algiers to discuss Mali, on thesecond leg of a tour to press Europeanconcerns about security in the region.

7th: Ansar Dine spokesman Mohamed AgAharid warns in Ouagadougou that anymilitary intervention in Mali would “setthe region ablaze.”

8th: Ex-Guinean transitional leader GeneralSekouba Konate, who is supervising mil-itary preparation, meets chief regionalmediator Burkina Faso’s Blaise Compa-ore to discuss “the juxtaposition of themilitary intervention and the ongoingdialogue.” Red Cross says in Geneva thatsome 500,000 people can no longer sus-tain themselves in north Mali amid secu-rity risks, food shortages and thebreakdown of political structures.Hicham Bilal, head of a MUJAO katiba(batallion) says he has defected andreturned to his home country of Niger,slamming the extremists he worked withas “lunatics”. Bilal spoke to AFP fromNiamey where he says he is “in the handsof authorities”, saying many of the menfrom his brigade had defected with him. Akatiba can count up to 100 fighters.“These lunatics from MUJAO are notchildren of God, they are drug traffickers.They do everything which goes againstIslam and to them, a black man is inferiorto an Arab or a white,” he said.

11th: West African leaders at an emergencysummit agree on a 3,300-strong force towrest control of northern Mali fromIslamist extremists as fears grow overrisks they pose to the region and beyond.

12th: Algeria renews its call for a politicalsolution. “We have not stopped emphas-ising that a way out of the crisis, throughdialogue between the Malian authoritiesand the rebel groups in the north, iscompletely possible,” Foreign ministryspokesman Amar Belani said.

13th: Religious leaders from Algeria, Mali,Niger, Mauritania and Nigeria launchthe “League of the Ulemas of the Sahel”in respnse to the Mali crisis in order “topreach peace in the region”. The Leagueunequivocally condemned AQLIM,MUJAO and Boko Haram.

14th: Ansar Dine says for the first time it isready to help rid the region of “terror-ism” and “foreign groups”. It renouncesthe goal of imposing sharia across Mali,saying it only wanted to keep it in itsstronghold of Kidal.

15th: Foreign and Defence ministers from fiveEuropean countries – Germany, Poland,Spain, Italy and France meet to discuss aEuropean mission aimed at trainingMalian troops.

16th: New fighting and a crackdown on womenfor not wearing veils by Islamist militantsin Timbuktu mar peace moves by AnsarDine and MNLA. Touareg warlordMoussa Ag Assarid says the MNLA haslaunched an “offensive” to retake the keynorth-central region of Gao from Islamistrebels. A Burkina security source said theMUJAO attacked some MNLA fightersand “took a lot of prisoners and twovehicles. There were some dead.” BlaiseCompaore holds joint talks with AnsarDine and the MNLA in Ouagadougou.

18th: Malian Prime Minister Cheick ModiboDiarra says that the government willeventually hold talks with Ansar Dineand the Touareg MNLA, because theyare both homegrown movements andthese “people … are our compatriots.”AQLIM and MUJAO are both made upmainly of foreign fighters. MUJAOclaims victory over the MNLA sayingthey have driven Touareg-led rebels outof the desert town of Menaka.

26th: Diarra arrives in France for talks onmilitary intervention. (AFP, BBC NewsOnline, PANA, Magharebia.com Nov)

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The man, who gave his name as AbuMuhammad Ibn Abdulaziz and isthought to be Boko Haram’s second incommand, said the group was willing tolay down arms and dialogue throughintermediaries.

He said he was speaking on behalf ofgroup leader Abubakar Shekau. Hisclaim could not be authenticatedbecause since the reported killing of thesect’s spokesman Abul Qaqa two monthsago, the group has not contacted jour-nalists through their usual means ofsending emails and holding teleconfer-ences.

Abu Abdulaziz listed the four ceasefireconditions as follows:

� Payment of compensation to the group andthe rebuilding of their places of worship thatwere destroyed during the 2009 uprising;

� Release of their detained members;� Prosecution of former Borno State governor

Ali Sheriff; and� Rehabilitation of their families.

He said as soon as the conditions weremet, the group would cease fire and beready for a meeting with the FederalGovernment which should be held inSaudi Arabia, to finalise issues relating todialogue and full restoration of peace.

He said the government should nomi-nate former military head of state andpresidential candidate of the Congressfor Progressive Change (CPC) GeneralMuhammadu Buhari; Dr Shettima Mon-guno; a former Yobe State Governor,Bukar Ibrahim; Ambassador Gaji Galti-mari; Aisha Alkali Wakil, and her hus-band, Alkali, as ‘trusted’ Nigerians withwhom it would be ready to negotiate.

The spokesman added that the grouphad mandated four members, besideshimself, to mediate on its behalf: AbuAbbas; Sheikh Ibrahim Yusuf; SheikhSani Kontogora; and Mamman Nur, thealleged mastermind of the 2011 bombingof the UN in Abuja (Vol. 48, p. 18954).

In an initial reaction to the reportedoffer of dialogue, Presidential spokes-man Reuben Abati said, “If what theproposed ceasefire is intended to achieveare the objectives of peace and security,then it is a welcome development.”

Within days, however, it became appar-ent that the Federal Government hadconsiderable misgivings. When PresidentGoodluck Jonathan’s predecessor,Umaru Musa Yar’Adua tried to strike adeal with the then fledgling sect byreleasing some of its members, the sectregrouped and re-launched its offensive,said Sunday Vanguard (4/4).

Another factor affecting the govern-ment’s decision is the belief that theleadership of Boko Haram may not be intotal control of some of the members.

A significant number of criminal activ-ities are carried out in various parts ofnorthern Nigeria and attributed to thesect but are later denied by the sect’sleadership.

The government reasons therefore thatany form of talks opened between it andBoko Haram might not yield the desiredresult as there were now establishedsplinter groups that sometimes operatedindependently of the sect’s high com-mand.

Neither does the government trustsome of the people proposed by thesect. Sunday Vanguard was led tounderstand that one of the personsproposed for the talks may have linkswith al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb(AQLIM) and, therefore, may not betrusted as a mediator.

The Christian Association of Nigeria(CAN) objected to the inclusion ofBuhari, querying what motive BokoHaram might have for putting himforward. It said in a statement: “Gen-eral Buhari, as I read in the newspa-pers, had said that if he was notdeclared president of Nigeria in 2011,he will make Nigeria ungovernable forDr Goodluck Jonathan. Other peoplealso said so.”

Buhari is said to have declined the offerto participate.

The proposal may have been killed offalmost immediately, however, by themurder of General Muhammed Shuwa(rtd).

Gen Shuwa was shot dead at his home inMaiduguri. He is regarded by the Nige-rian military as a war hero, and played akey role in crushing Biafran separatistsduring Nigeria’s brutal civil war in the1960s.

No group claimed the attack but thesecurity forces came down heavily onpotential Boko Haram supporters. Theysaid the attack on Shuwa resembledthose previously claimed by the group,who have often targetted notable gov-ernment and military figures, and calledinto question the group’s genuinenesswhen stating a willingness for negotia-tions.

In retaliation security forces killed a topBoko Haram commander, Ibn SalehIbrahim, in the north-eastern city ofMaiduguri, in an exchange of gunfire,during which a number of civilians werealso killed. The operation was supportedby armoured personnel carriers andhelicopters.

Army spokesman Lt. Col. Sagir Musaclaimed Mr Ibrahim had been responsi-ble for the assassination of retired Gen-eral Shuwa following an order from MrShekau.

Fear gripped Maiduguri on November3rd with young men fleeing after thealleged execution style killings of around40 young men, mostly teenagers, whoresidents said were rounded up and shot.

Residents spoke of a heavy militarypresence and said that various townneighbourhoods had been under siegesince the death of Shuwa. They saidtroops conducted raids in Maiduguri,separated males in their teens andtwenties from older men and shot them,reported © AFP (3/11).

While some urged government to goahead with the dialogue, others cau-tioned against the idea saying it wouldbe counter-productive. The Presidencyis reported, however, by Vanguard (4/11) to have said that if the BokoHaram sect is genuinely ready fordialogue to end the spate of suicidebomb attacks in many parts of North-ern Nigeria, the Federal Governmentwill oblige the group but not withunjust preconditions.

Boko Haram’s demand for the release oftheir detained members as a precondi-tion for the negotiation is not accept-able.

Amnesty International charged Nigeria’ssecurity forces with committing massiverights violations, including summaryexecutions, in their campaign to crushthe Islamists. PANA said Nigeria hadrejected the allegations.

In its report AI documented a series ofalleged extra-judicial killings by the mil-itary and police in Maiduguri, sayingsuch conduct had fuelled further attacksand deepened a cycle of violence.

A suicide attacker drove a car bomb intoa Nigerian church on October 28th,sparking fierce reprisals that saw aChristian mob burn a man alive in aday of violence that killed at least 10people and wounded 145.

Christian youths took to the streets ofthe northern city of Kaduna withmachetes and sticks after the blast,targeting those they believed to be Mus-lims as anger again boiled over due torepeated church bombings in recentmonths.

Nigerians have grown increasingly frus-trated with security forces’ inability tostop Boko Haram attacks, and therehave been warnings of more reprisals ifthe violence continued.

Some Evangelical church leaders inNigeria have said Christians may beforced to defend themselves if somethingis not done to address the unrest.

A Kaduna-based rights activist, ShehuSani, issued a statement after the vio-lence saying “our churches and mosques

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have now become a hostile arena forderanged and murderous psychopaths.

“The government of Nigeria must wakeup and live up to its duties and consti-tutional responsibilities,” he said. “Wemust find a lasting solution to thiscarnage and arbitrariness” (� AFP 28/10).

It is not always clear whether the attacksare the work of Boko Haram, or whatmotivated them. On November 11thgunmen killed five Christians, who wereethnic Igbos, in Gaidam in volatile Yobestate. They could have been killed eitherfor being Christian or Igbo (� AFP 11/11).

In Nasarawa State renewed violence wasethnic. About 10 persons and the districthead of Gidan-Rai, Zhe Meri, werekilled in Agyaragu as relations betweentwo ethnic groups, Eggon and Alago,degenerated into clashes (This Day 23/11).

“Rebirth of Biafra”

On November 5th police arrested 101alleged members of a secessionist move-ment based in the country’s southeast inthe latest such sweep in the region,authorities said.

According to police, the alleged mem-bers of the “Biafra Zionist Movement”(BZM) were found in possession ofsecessionist emblems.

They had staged a march in the city ofEnugu, a major town in the southeast,early in the day.

“A magistrates’ court in Enuguremanded in custody the suspects whowere earlier arrested… for illegal assem-bly,” police spokesman Ebere Amaraizutold AFP.

He said that BZM was a faction of thebanned Movement for the Actualisationof the Sovereign State of Biafra (MAS-SOB). (© AFP, Lagos 5/11)

Among those arrested was the leader ofBZM, Benjamin Onwuka. His group is afaction of the Ralph Uwazuruike-ledMASSOB. The two pro-Biafra organi-sations have been having a strainedrelationship since the formation of thenew group.

Onwuka, who proclaimed himself thepresident of the Biafran Republic, saidthe ministers who would conduct theaffairs of his government would beannounced in due course.

After a rally that lasted for about anhour, Onwuka and his members,mostly elderly men in their 60s,embarked on a peaceful procession toOgbete Main Market area acknowledg-ing cheers from residents and motoristsalong the road.

Onwuka said the life and property of theBiafran people were no longer safe andguaranteed in Nigeria, hence theirresolve to re-declare their independencewith effect from November 5th, 2012.(The Vanguard, Enugu 6/11)

RWANDAEight Years for Ingabire

All key opposition leaders are noweither in jail or exile.

The jailing of opposition politician Vic-toire Umuhoza Ingabire, who was seen asthe “last standing real opposition mem-ber”, has raised concerns that the gov-ernment is stifling democracy.

The High Court in Kigali handed MsIngabire, the head of the yet-to-be reg-istered Union of Democratic Forces-Inkingi (FDU Inkingi), eight years injail. She was convicted of two counts ofgenocide denial and conspiracy andplanning to cause state insecurity, andwas acquitted of four other charges thatincluded genocide ideology, promotingethnic divisionism and supporting armedgroups.

The sentencing followed a two-year trialin which the prosecution had sought alife imprisonment sentence.

High Court Judge Alice Rulisa, deliv-ered the verdict in the case in which MsIngabire, along with four others, facedcharges of terrorism, inciting citizensagainst the government, genocide denialand promoting the genocide ideologyand ethnic divisions.

Ms Ingabire joins Bernard Ntaganda, theformer leader of Parti Sociale Imberak-uri (PSI), who was sentenced to fouryears in jail for organising an illegalassembly and inciting divisions based onethnicity, and Deo Mushayidi, serving alife sentence on charges related to ter-rorism, genocide denial and treason.

Several other politicians, including for-mer President Pasteur Bizimungu andCharles Ntakirutinka, have been impris-oned for criticising the government andlater released on pardon or after serv-ing time. Mr Bizimungu and MrNtakirutinka were charged under thesame laws.

With Ms Ingabire’s jailing, key opposi-tion members in Rwanda are now eitherin jail or living outside Rwanda, some-thing Human Rights Watch (HRW) saysconfirms fears that the government isincreasingly becoming intolerant of dis-senting voices.

“The prosecution of Ingabire for ‘geno-cide ideology’ and divisionism illustratesthe Rwandan government’s unwilling-ness to accept the role of opposition

parties in a democratic society. Thecourts should not be used for suchpolitical purposes,” said Daniel Bekele,Africa director of HRW.

The rights group accused Rwanda ofusing anti-genocide laws to crush dis-sent, with all the politicians in questioncharged under the same laws. It notedthat the government has a duty toprevent hate speech. “However, theresponsibility to prevent violence shouldnot be used as an excuse for stiflingcriticism or prohibiting discussion ofcertain events nor should it be invokedas a pretext for delaying democraticreforms,” said Mr Bekele.

Rwanda’s Minister of Justice TharcisseKarugarama, who is also the AttorneyGeneral, said, “It should be noted that itwas a total of six charges and she wasacquitted on four after thorough inves-tigations and analysis of evidence.”

HRW argues that the sentencing of MsIngabire means that there is no func-tioning opposition party, with the rulingparty, the Rwanda Patriotic Front(RPF) dominating the political scenewithout any meaningful challenge fromother parties represented in parliament.

Two types of “opposition groupings”exist in Rwanda, with the one serving ina coalition with the ruling party notconsidered “true opposition” while thestronger ones led by Ingabire have all hadrun-ins with the government and the law.

Ms Ingabire’s FDU-Inkingi has beenunable to register as a political party,despite several attempts before the 2010elections.

Mr Ntaganda’s PSI split into two, withone part registered and the other remain-ing loyal to the detained politician.

Christine Mukabunani, the leader of theregistered breakaway PS Imberakuritold The EastAfrican that ‘opposition’does not mean to ‘break the laws of acountry’ as they are bigger than individ-uals or parties.

“When the actions of opposition aredeemed to be against the law, it is up thecourt to decide. Our job is to criticise thegovernment but not to fight laws,” MsMukabunani, also the spokesperson ofthe political parties’ forum said.

In April 2012, Ms Ingabire boycottedher trial mid-way through proceedings,after the court cut short a witness whoaccused the Rwandan authorities ofrigging evidence against her, citing ‘lackof independence’ of the courts. But thegovernment dismissed Ingabire’s claimsas ‘baseless’, at a time when the sectorhas been boosted by the internationalcommunity restoring confidence, send-ing several cases to be tried there. (TheEast African, Nairobi 6/11)

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As well as HRW, the InternationalFederation for Human Rights (FIDH)and Amnesty International denounced“the numerous irregularities that marredthe fairness of the trial”.

Upon hearing the verdict pronounced bythe High Court panel, Ian Edwards, aBritish attorney who worked on Ingabi-re’s defence team, said she would appeal.

“We thought shewould be acquitted of allcharges, but we will appeal, first to theSupreme Court and then, if that fails, wewill go to the African Court on Humanand People’s Rights,” he said, referring toa court based in the Tanzanian city ofArusha. (© AFP, Nairobi 3/11)

During the ruling, Rulisa averred thatthe judges took into account a letterwritten by Ingabire, to President PaulKagame seeking clemency. It is in thisletter that the three-person panel found amitigating factor, thereby reducing herjail term to eight, saying she hadexpressed remorse for the actions forwhich she was convicted.

The FDU condemned the conviction,claiming the court “process was marredby intimidation, interferences and unfair-ness”.

Prosecutor-General Martin Ngogaacknowledged, however, that the prose-cution was unhappy with the eight-yearjail term handed to Victoire Ingabire bythe High Court. Ngoga did not explicitlysay they would appeal against the verdict,saying they were still weighing theoptions.

“As a party to the case, we too have theright to challenge it (the decision) at ahigher level,” said Ngoga, in an exclusiveinterview held in his office in Kigali. (TheNew Times website, Kigali 2/11)

The umbrella body of genocide survi-vors, Ibuka (Kinyarwanda for “Remem-ber”), also protested that the eight yearsjail term was too short, saying the HighCourt ignored the gravity of the offencesfor which she was convicted. (The NewTimes, Kigali 3/11)

Journalist Jailed

The Committee to Protect Journalists(CPJ) has called for the release ofjournalist Gatera Stanley who was sen-tenced to one year in jail and fined30,000 Rwandan francs (US$50) forinciting divisionism. The CPJ urged thecourt of appeal to overturn the rulingand release the journalist who has beendetained since August 2012 for an articledeemed “discriminatory”.

Gatera Stanley, the chief-editor of [Kin-yarwanda language] newspaper Umusin-gi, was arrested following the publicationof an article entitled “How men pursuingTutsi women because of their beauty risk

getting in trouble”. Stanley was chargedon three counts: spreading divisionism,demeaning women and creating divisionbetween men and women in general.

The CPJ recalled that Umusingi hadbeen a target in the past. In February2011, the newspaper’s website was tem-porarily blocked after it published aninterview with the dissident RwandanGeneral exiled in South Africa, Kay-umba Nyamwasa.

Its founder and former director, NelsonGatsimbazi, fled the country in August2011 after being informedof his imminentarrest on accusation of divisionism basedonacomplaint lodgedbyanother journal-ist in 2008. (RNAnewsagency,Kigali 12/11)

SOMALIARoad to Baidoa

Amisom is hoping to keep Al Shabaabon the back foot.

On the road to Baidoa is the strategictown of Jowhar, which lies about 90 kmnorth of the capital, Mogadishu, and isone of Al Haraka al Shabaab al Muja-hideen (Al-Shabaab’s) last major bas-tions in southern Somalia. The SomaliNational Armed Forces, backed bythose of African Union Mission inSomalia (Amisom), were therefore head-ing to Jowhar, the provincial capital ofMiddle Shabeelle Region, southernSomalia, at the end of October.

Reports from the region, on November18th, confirmed that AU-backed Somaligovernment forces were on the verge oftaking control of Jowhar. According tolocal radio, coalition forces had reacheda locality 20km from the town.

“Some of the residents who spoke undercondition of anonymity told the radiothat tension is very high in the town “,added the source. (Radio Dalsan, Mogadi-shu 18/11)

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiriurged all Muslims to support Somalia’s

Islamist al Shabaab insurgents, the SITEIntelligence Group, which tracks theonline activity of terrorist groups,reported on November 6th.

Al Shabaab, battling the Western-backed government, has in recentmonths suffered several major setbacksand lost key assets, including the south-ern port of Kismayo (p. 19463).

“This is a flagrant Crusader invasion ofthe Muslim countries and it makes jihadobligatory on every Muslim who iscapable in Somalia and its surroundingsand in the rest of the world until theinvaders are expelled,” SITE quotedZawahiri as saying.

The website said al Shabaab, which isaffiliated to Al-Qaeda, had also postedseveral messages on the Internet vowingto intensify attacks in Mogadishu.

Al Shabaab once controlled up to 80%of southern and central Somalia and therecent African offensive dashed theirhopes of taking power. But analystshave warned that the group could dojust as much damage by reverting toguerrilla tactics and carrying out tar-geted attacks. A string of suicide attacksand bomb blasts, a bomb blast rockedthe parliament buildings on the 7th, havehit Mogadishu and other towns. (© AFP,Nairobi 7/11)

Security analysts at the South African-based think tank, the Institute of Secu-rity Studies, are warning that the waragainst the terror group may be far fromover.

In a report on conflict prevention andrisk analysis in Africa released at the endof October, the Pretoria-based groupsays the celebration over the fall ofKismayo may have been premature.

The report says all indications were thatremnants of the terror group that havebeen targeting Kenya in its revengeattacks (p. 19493), were planning anew round of war in their bid to retakethe coastal city.

The ISS analysts are now calling for newtactics to stop the terror group fromwaging fresh battle. “There are indica-tions that al Shabaab is planning toresort to unconventional warfare meth-ods, including deploying suicide bomb-ers and other guerrilla tactics, to makethe area ungovernable.”

The experts say the people of Kismayoremain concerned that al Shabaab hassimply blended into the local population.

The ISS group further observes thatKenyan troops and Amisom face thechallenge of securing Kismayo, as alShabaab left booby traps and unex-ploded improvised explosive devices,which are not always easy to identify.

SOMALIA

KENYA

Baidoa

JowhorMogadishu

Nairobi

ETHIOPIA

DJIBOUTI

Indian Ocean

(bbc.co.uk)

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The KDF is currently busy removingsuch devices from the town.

“It remains to be seen what al Shabaabwill do next, but it is probable that it willmove on to bigger towns, and startengaging in unconventional warfare,”wrote the ISS team.

According to ISS, the African Unionforces’ immediate challenge is to keepKismayo under control, and to win thehearts and minds of the people. Theexperts say the war in Somalia may betaking a new turn that Amisom has noteven seen the beginning of yet. (TheStandard website, Nairobi 27/10)

Armed clashes reportedly broke out inKismayo on November 23rd. Witnessessaid heavily armed unknown militiasstormed bases manned by Kenyan forcesin the heart of the city during the night,causing unconfirmed human losses.

Local residents reported that the attackraged on for several hours and theKenyan army managed to fend off theassault from their positions.

Since the city fell, such attacks againstthe coalition troops have been on therise. (Shabelle media network 24/11)

Kenyan Defiance

Disputes over politics and money, espe-cially income from Kismayo and Mog-adishu ports, threaten President HassanSheikh Mohamud’s new order, saidAfrica Confidential.

Kenya’s defiance of the Somali govern-ment on the ban on charcoal exportsfrom Kismayo threatens the cohesion ofAmisom. It will also test the mettle ofthe UNMonitoring Group, which has todecide if Kenya has defied the UNSecurity Council Resolutions and shouldbe sanctioned.

On paper, Kenya is now a fully partic-ipating, although late-arriving, memberof Amisom and its generals sit alongsidethose from Uganda and Burundi (andMogadishu’s own officers) in planningand strategy sessions. So do Ethiopia’sofficers, although they refuse to acceptthe constraints of joining Amisom anddeploy their forces at will.

The position of Kenya is more complexstill. In recent weeks, the KDF in Kis-mayo have flouted the charcoal exportban and allowed Kenyan companies,such as SIFA, linked to the nephew ofthe Deputy Speaker, Farah MaalimMohamed (Ogaden/Awlihan) to profitfrom such exports.

Kenya is allowing Somali charcoalexports, although President Mohamudhas expressly forbidden them, and mostexperts believe that businesses linked toAl Shabaab will benefit. It seems that the

KDF wants to help its Ras Kamboniallies to raise money through charcoalexport taxes; Kenyan business peopleand some KDF officers are also believedto be earning commissions.

A lack of action on charcoal couldundermine Amisom’s position. It couldalso be used by Al Shabaab to supportits claims that the real aim of Kenya’sforces in Somalia is to grab land.

Hassan Sheikh seems short of new ideasabout how to handle the conflict inKismayo. He may also become hostageto his Hawiye clan politics, just as heneeds to prove himself as a nationalleader. If the Kismayo conflict flaresagain over the distribution of commercialspoils andMadobe’s leadership style, thatwould provide Al Shabaab with a goldenopportunity to rebuild support in LowerJuba. (Africa Confidential 16/11)

Journalists Targetted

Somalia’s journalists are reeling from astring of attacks; including assassina-tions as well as those caught up in bombblasts or killed reporting on frontlinebattles against al Shabaab.

Even two comedians who poked fun atthe Islamists have been murdered.

Several killings are blamed on al Sha-baab, but other murders are alsobelieved to be linked to struggles withinthe multiple factions in power.

International press rights groups haverepeatedly voiced their concern, withReporters Without Borders (RSF) warn-ing Somalia “cannot continue to beabandoned… to the killers who aredecimating civil society.” It has called2012 the “deadliest year” on record, witha toll of 16 killed.

In the war-ravaged streets of Mogadi-shu, there seems little end in sight to thewave of killings.

“Journalists are constantly targeted andbeing killed,” said Ibrahim Mohamed,from the Somali National Union ofJournalists.

“What worries us most is that the crimesare done with impunity… nobody hasbeen tried for the murders,” Mohamedsaid, adding that seven journalists havefled into exile since September alone,while others have quit their jobs. (© AFP,Baidoa 2/11)

The Somali president has ordered that acommission to investigate the killing ofjournalists be set up. (Radio Daljir, Gaalk-acyo 24/11)

Ugandan Troops: Throughout Novemberthere was talk of Uganda pulling out itstroops from Somalia. It was with reliefthat the US lauded Uganda’s extendedrole in restoring peace in Somalia, pri-

vately-owned Shabelle website reportedon November 21st. (Shabeelle Media Net-work website, Mogadishu 21/11)

SOUTH SUDANHuman Rights Warning

A weak legal system and recourse to thedeath penalty is causing concern.

Rights groups sent a letter to SouthSudan’s Foreign Minister Nhial DengNhial asking for the world’s newest UNmember to vote for a moratorium on thedeath penalty at an upcoming meeting,because flaws in its legal system cannotguarantee the “basic rights” of peoplebeing sentenced to death.

“South Sudan has continued to use thedeath penalty despite well-documentedweaknesses in the country’s legal system,which prevent it from ensuring the basiclegal rights of people accused of crimes”,Amnesty International (AI), HumanRights Watch (HRW) and local civilsociety groups said on November 6th ina joint statement.

The rights groups say “the vast majority”of around 200 death row inmates “shack-led and crowded into cramped and dirtycells” never had a lawyer, “leaving manyunable to adequately prepare theirdefence or to appeal convictions”.

The groups are also concerned about thelackof informationabout those sentencedto death, their trials and executions.

South Sudan is in a process of buildingits police force and judiciary fromscratch.

While over two thirds of the UN’s 137members and the African Union’s 54states have abolished the death penalty,most recently Burundi, Cote d’Ivoire,Gabon, Rwanda, Senegal and Togo,South Sudan is among the few that stillpractises it. (© AFP, Juba 5/11)

The US Department of State voicedconcern about the expulsion of UNMission in South Sudan (UNMISS’s)human rights investigators. The Jubagovernment expelled three UNMISSstaff in October, for releasing “an unver-ified human rights violation report”.

UNMISS described the decision as aviolation of South Sudan’s commitmentsto the UN charter. Human rights mon-itoring, investigation and reporting arethe core element of the UNMISS man-date. (Miraya FM website, Juba 7/11)

Security Tightened

Meanwhile security is still being tightenedafter coup rumours (p. 19464). A sourceclose to the Sudan People’s LiberationArmy (SPLA) says therewasnoplot, onlyanger about dismissals and relocation of

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troops after budget cuts caused by the lossof most government revenue after Janu-ary’s suspension of oil production.

If therewas a plot, said anSPLAsource, itwas foiled at a very early stage. MilitaryIntelligence has been busy, trying toascertain the source of the rumours.Officers swept across Jonglei, thenmovedto Malakal, interrogating and arrestingsuspects. Many soldiers, including someMI officers, are detained or under housearrest,AfricaConfidentialwas told.Manypoliticians were called in by PresidentSalva Kiir Mayardit or their state gover-nors and warned. Those too powerful toaccept a warning were put under surveil-lance. (Africa Confidential 2/11)

SUDANSabotage Plot Foiled

Ex-spy chief and senior army officersare arrested on suspicion of “incitingchaos”.

Sudan’s National Intelligence and Secu-rity Services (NISS) announced onNovember 22nd it had “foiled a sabotageplot aimed at bringing about securitydisturbances in the country led by figuresfrom the opposition forces”.

The brief statement carried around5a.m. local time by Sudanese MediaCenter website, that is believed to berun by NISS, quoted a security source assaying that arrests were made thatincluded civilian and military individu-als. (Sudan Tribune, Khartoum 22/11)

The government later announced that 13servicemen and civilians had beenarrested. Salah Gosh, former head ofthe intelligence and security agency, wasarrested on suspicion of ‘inciting chaos’,‘targeting’ some leaders and spreadingrumours about President Omar HassanAhmed al-Bashir’s health. Other detain-ees included Maj-Gen Adil Al-Tayyibfrom military intelligence, and BrigMuhammad Ibrahim Abd-al-Jalil,known as ‘Wad Ibrahim.’

They were accused of “planning to incitechaos in Sudan at a very sensitive time”,the Information and Culture MinisterAhmed Bilal Uthman, said. “The situa-tion is now totally stable.”

Witnesses described seeingarmoured vehicles and troops in thetightly controlled centre of the capital,Khartoum, in the early hours of Novem-ber 22nd, although news agencies saidthere was no increase in security later on.

The plot was orchestrated to take placeearlier but was delayed to November22nd, Bilal Uthman said at a newsconference. “The government decidedto nip this attempt in the bud as aprecautionary measure, after observing

an exchange of communications in con-nection with the matter, to save thecountry from anarchy,” said the minis-ter. He added, “The relevant authoritiesgathered evidence which showed inten-tion to create instability and targetSudan’s leaders”.

“What is happening does not pose anythreat to the stability of the country nordoes it have any extension within thearmy, or security, or popular defence,”the minister assured.

The thwarted attempt did not exceed thestage of communication among theplotters who were arrested, said QutbiAl-Mahdi, member of the rulingNational Congress Party (NCP) Lead-ership Office. He added that only alimited number of people were involvedin the move and it did not reflectdivisions within the party. He affirmedthat Mr Gosh had been previouslysacked from the party and was no longeranything to do with it. Al-Mahdi saidthat none of the party’s leaders wascomplicit in the coup. (Sudan Vision web-site, Khartoum 22/11)

Bashir has maintained a near 25-yearhold on power, even as a series ofuprisings troubled the country’s poorborder areas, including the conflict-tornregion of Darfur.

But Sudan has been stuck in economiccrisis since the south, the source of mostof its known oil-reserves, declared inde-pendence in 2011 under the terms of apeace deal.

High prices for food and other basicshave added to widespread public angerover losing the south and have embold-ened opposition activists to call forprotests. Analysts say the crisis has alsoexacerbated divisions in the government.

Small demonstrations against cuts in fuelsubsidies and other austerity measuresbrokeoutacross Sudan in June(p. 19320)but decreased after a security crackdownand the start of theMuslim fastingmonthof Ramadan. (Al-Jazeera, Khartoum 22/11)

Upsurge of Violence in Darfur

Peacekeepers who reached the village ofSigili in Sudan’s Darfur, where 13 peoplewere reportedly killed by a militia, foundit deserted, with houses burnt and ani-mals dead in the street, UNAMIDreported on November 8th.

International peacekeepers on Novem-ber 12th expressed grave concern aboutan upsurge of violence in Sudan’s Dar-fur, after they airlifted people woundedin recent clashes.

The fighting on November 9th betweengovernment forces and “an armed group”near Shangil Tobay “is part of a largerpattern of conflict in the area in recent

months,” said the African Union-UnitedNations Mission in Darfur (UNAMID).

Rebels from the Justice and EqualityMovement (JEM) said earlier that onNovember 9th they attacked a largegovernment convoy travelling northfrom Shangil Tobay, which is about 50kilometres (30 miles) south of El Fasher,the state capital of North Darfur.

They said they captured one armouredvehicle and destroyed others, whileseizing trucks and cars as well as equip-ment, weapons and ammunition.

JEM said its forces worked with theSudan Liberation Army (SLA’s) MinniMinnawi faction in the attack which“captured a number of governmenttroops” and inflicted heavy losses.

Since July, civilians have been increas-ingly at risk from inter-communalfighting, harassment by militia groups

Tanzania

Sheikh Ponda Refused Bail

Police in Dar es Salaam on November 2ndused tear gas to disperse groups of Mus-lims attempting to hold demonstrationsaimed at seeking the release of controver-sial cleric Sheikh Ponda Issa Ponda. Abouta dozen people were arrested.

Businesses around the city centre came toa standstill with hundreds of police offi-cers and members of the military deployedto the streets.

After Friday prayers, anti-riot policeordered the gathering would-be demon-strators off the streets using loudspeakersbefore lobbing tear-gas cannisters at thosewho defied their orders.

The city has been tense following Octo-ber’s arrest of Ponda (p. 19465), the headof the Jumuiya ya wa Islamu, or the“community of Islam”, a group not recog-nised by the Tanzanian government. He isaccused of inciting violence during Octo-ber demonstrations in the economic cap-ital Dar es Salaam. (© AFP, Dar esSalaam 2/11)

Sheikh Ponda, Mkadam Swalehe and 49followers appeared before the KisutuResident Magistrate’s Court for the sec-ond time on November 15th.

Sheikh Ponda denied all charges in con-nection with committing conspiracy, tres-pass, criminal possession and stealingmaterials worth TShs59.6m from Agritan-za Limited. Before the arraignment ofSwalehe, Sheikh Ponda was facing thefifth charge of inciting people to commitan offence alone.

All accused persons were bailed except forSheikh Ponda and Swalehe.

The case was adjourned until November29th, the day witnesses from the prosecu-tion side were due to testify. (TanzaniaDaily News 16/11)

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and sporadic clashes between rebel andgovernment troops, particularly inNorth Darfur, UN chief Ban Ki-moonsaid in a quarterly report issued onOctober 16th..

Though violence is down from its peak,various overlapping conflicts continue inthe form of banditry, inter-Arab andtribal disputes as well as government-rebel clashes in the far-west region.(© AFP, Khartoum 8, 12, 18/11)

TUNISIAState of Emergency Extended

Ennahda vows to crack down on radicalSalafists.

Tunisian President Moncef Marzoukiextended the country’s state of emer-gency from November 1st through Jan-uary, continuing special interventionpowers for the police and army after arecent series of Islamist attacks.

Extensions of the state of emergency,which has been in place since January2011, had only been made for 30 days ata time since July.

Authorities had pointed to the shortenedextensions as a sign of improving secu-rity, but the announcement of a three-month extension will likely raise fears ofa deteriorating situation in Tunisia,which is still dealing with instabilityunleashed by the revolution. (Tunis Afri-que Presse, Al-Jazeera 31/10)

Hundreds of Salafists demonstrated inTunis on November 6th to demand therelease of those detained in sweepingarrests in recent months, especially aftera September attack on the US embassy(p. 19434).

“We are not extremists, we are Mus-lims,” shouted the demonstrators, gath-ered outside the justice ministry amidheavy security.

The Salafists, who follow an ultra-orthodox form of Sunni Islam, claimthey are victims of repression. They sayaround 900 fellow hardliners have beendetained since an uprising ousted presi-dent Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January2011, followed by an amnesty for polit-ical prisoners, notably Islamists.

The justice ministry denies that figure,saying 150–200 people have beenarrested in connection with violenceblamed on the Islamists, most of themfollowing the US embassy attack, inwhich four of the assailants were killed.

“We are the most committed to reform;we protect the security and interests ofour country. As proof of this, we havecome here today to draw the world’s

attention to the injustice that we havesuffered,” Khamis al-Majeri, one of thegroup’s leaders, told AFP.

A Salafist imam, Nasreddine Aloui, hasdeclared war on Ennahda, Tunisia’s rul-ing Islamist party. Aloui has taken overas the new imam of the Ennour mosquein the Tunis suburb of Manouba,although he has not been sanctioned bythe state, which holds the right to makeappointments.

His predecessor died of wounds sus-tained when he took part in a Salafistattack on two police posts a week earlier.

Religious Affairs Minister Nourredine el-Khadmi said that Aloui had not beenappointed by his ministry and wastherefore illegitimate. He added thataround 100 mosques in Tunisia areunder the full control of Salafists, andrejected what he said was Aloui’s “call toviolence.”

Meanwhile, Abu Iyed, speaking for theSalafist group Ansar al-Sharia (Partisansof Islamic Law), sought to defuse thecontroversy, saying Tunisia is not theplace for holy war.

Ennahda has vowed to crack down onthe radical Salafists after being sharplycriticised for failing to rein them infollowing a wave of violence that culmi-nated in the embassy attack. (© AFP,Tunis 6/11)

Hunger Strikers Die

Mohamed Bakhti, a prominent figure inTunisia’s Salafist movement, died onNovember 17th, nearly two months afterlaunching a hunger strike following hisarrest for an attack on the US embassy,his lawyer said.

His was the second death, after anothermember of the Islamist movement,Bechir Gholli, died two days earlier.

The lawyer had warned that Bakhti, whowas suffering from a brain haemmor-rhage, was in critical condition forseveral days.

Bakhti and Gholli started their hungerstrike in late September, days after theirarrest for the September 14th attack.

They insisted they were innocent andprotested over the conditions of deten-tion, while the Salafist movementcharged it was being victimised by theauthorities.

Bakhti was considered a senior figure inthe jihadist movement and close to AbuIyad, the alleged organiser of theembassy attack who is on the run.

He was jailed for 12 years in 2007 forbloody clashes between the army andIslamists in Soliman, near Tunis, underBen Ali’s regime but released under an

amnesty declared after the 2011 revolu-tion. (ahram.org 17/11)

After the latest death, a justice ministryofficial said that three of the 56 Tunisianprisonersonhunger strikewere ina“moreor less worrying condition,” havingrefused to eat for exactly one month.

Negotiations are taking place with thedetainees, their families and civil societygroups to persuade them to call off theirhunger strike, he told AFP. (© AFP, Tunis17/11)

IN BRIEFAlgeria: AQLIM-linked militants killed twosoldiers in an ambush near Boumerdes onOctober 18th, El Watan reported. Le Soird’Algerie said the five militants belonged to anoffshoot of AQLIM holed up in the moun-tainous Djerrah area.

Eight men convicted of murdering business-man Hend Slimana have been sentenced todeath by the court of Tizi Ouzou, the APSagency reported. Some of them had confessedto being members of AQLIM. (© AFP,Algiers 20,25/10)

Burundi: At least nine gunmen were shot deadin clashes with security forces in late October,officials said on October 24th, with a newrebel group – Murundi People’s Front, ‘theSaviours’ (FPM-Abatabazi) – claiming ninesoldiers were also killed and 17 wounded.

“Unidentified gunmen entered the town ofBuganda, then went into Murwi from neigh-bouring DR Congo,” Anselm Nsabimana,governor of northwestern Cibitoke region,said. Rebel deputy commander Ntwari Israelsaid “the armed struggle to liberate the peopleof Burundi from the yoke imposed by [Pres-ident] Pierre Nkurunziza” had begun.(© AFP, Bujumbura 24/10 2012)

The appeal hearing resumed on November7th for journalist Hassan Ruvakuki jailed forlife on terrorism charges for planning thendocumenting a rebel attack in the east of thecountry. (© AFP, Gitega 7/11; RFI 9/11)

Cameroon: Security forces used teargas todisperse about a thousand opposition sup-porters in Douala on November 7th protest-ing against President Paul Biya as he marked30 years in power.

Opposition MP Jean Michel Nintcheu, said “alarge number of well-armed police and gen-darmes deployed by the repressive regime ofBiya used water cannon, teargas and otherweapons to disperse and brutalise thousandsof our activists.” (NA, Douala 7/11)

Central African Republic: A police officer andtwocivilians, includinga child,were killed in anattack by armed men in the village of Libi nearthe capital Bangui, police saidNovember 14th.An army vehicle transporting troops was alsoattacked, but the soldiers fired back and forcedthe attackers to flee. (© AFP, Bangui 14/11)

Republic of Congo: Torture has become rou-tine and systematic in prisons and policestations, according to a November 2nd reportby the Congolese Observatory for HumanRights (OCDH) based on a series of fieldinvestigations OCDH conducted, with finan-

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cial support from the European Union (EU),between 2010 and 2012.

The accusations are rejected by the govern-ment, which said, “Congo has signed andratified the convention against torture andinhuman and degrading treatment.” (IRIN,Brazzaville 7/11)

Equatorial Guinea: A human rights lawyerwho was detained in the notorious BlackBeach prison after visiting a client was freedafter being held in solitary confinement fornine days. Fabian Nsue had gone to theprison in Malabo to visit Agustin EsonoNzogo Nsang, a schoolmaster with ties tothe opposition who was arrested in Octoberon what the opposition says are trumped-upcharges of embezzlement. (© AFP, Libreville5/11)

The Gambia: Former Foreign Minister Mam-boury Njie, who was sacked in late Augustafter only four months in the job, was releasedon police bail from jail on November 5th afterbeing arrested the previous week, police said.

Local media suggested he was fired forcriticising President Yahya Jammeh’s decisionto execute nine death row inmates in August,which prompted an international outcry. (©AFP, Banjul 5/11 2012)

Malawi: A former top aide of late presidentBingu wa Mutharika and a policeman havebeen arrested for the murder of studentactivist Robert Chasowa who was killed in2011, a police spokesman said. Noel Mas-angwi, a top official of the DemocraticProgressive Party (DPP), was arrestedtogether with five others, including police

officer Stanford Horea. (© AFP, Blantyre24/10 2012)

Morocco: German police have arrested aman in connection with a deadly suicidebombing in Casablanca in 2003 that left 45people dead, including the 12 bombers, andmany injured. The suspect, reported to be a37-year-old French national of Moroccanorigin, was detained at Munich airport afterRabat issued an international arrest war-rant. (BBC News Online 30/10)

Eight people suspected of plotting attacksagainst strategic sites were arrested Novem-ber 5th, less than a week after the kingdomannounced it had dismantled a “terrorist”cell. The latest arrests targeted a groupcalled Ansar al-Sharia in the Islamic Mag-hreb, dismantling the cell whose eight mem-bers planned to “commit acts of sabotageagainst strategic sites,” said an interiorministry statement. (© AFP, Rabat 5/112012)

A cell active in recruiting young menabsorbed with al Qaeda ideas with the aimof sending them for jihad in the Sahel(particularly Mali) was dismantled in lateNovember. (MAP, Rabat 24/11)

Niger: Five Nigerien aid workers who wereabducted in Niger in mid-October, whileworking for the charity Befen, have beenfreed alive, while a sixth aid worker, aChadian who worked for Alerte-Sante, diedduring the kidnapping after being shot bythe Al-Qaeda-linked kidnappers. The kid-nappers had reportedly been targeting anItalian anthropologist who was working for

aid group Doctors Without Borders (MSF).

(© AFP, Niamey 3/11)

Senegal: President Macky Sall on October26th admitted to “errors” in managing aviolent protest against the detention of areligious leader.

Three people were injured and 127 carsseriously damaged after hordes of devoutdisciples of Cheick Bethio Thioune swarmedthe capital, Dakar, smashing in car windows,setting others on fire and sowing panic in thestreets. Senegal police have arrested 33 peoplein connection with the protest.

Thioune, a prominent leader of the Mouridebrotherhood, one of four Sufi brotherhoodsfollowed in the 95% Muslim nation, wasarrested on April 23rd after the death oftwo of his disciples during a brawl at hishouse the previous evening. He was chargedwith complicity to murder along withseveral of his followers. (© AFP, Dakar26/10)

South Africa: Sixteen Western Cape townswere hit by violent protests during Novemberover farming wages and working conditions,resulting in two deaths and extensive damageto property.

On November 16th, protesters looted shopsand torched businesses in the Hex RiverValley and roads in the province, includingthe N2, were blockaded with rocks andburning tyres. The Coalition of Farm WorkerRepresentatives then gave government aDecember 4th deadline to institute a wage ofR150 per day, concede to worker demandsand release arrested workers. (SAPA, News24 19/11)

ALGERIAGerman Arms Deal

The latest purchases are for local use,while an agreement with the US has aregional bearing.

TheEchourouk El Youmiwebsite (11/11)reported that the German Rheinmetallcompany, which specialises in the pro-duction of vehicle parts and defenceequipment, plans to produce 1,200armoured vehicles of the renowned Fuchsmodel for Algeria at the cost of €195mover the next 10 years. All of the vehiclesare reportedly for use in Algeria.

Der Spiegel magazine, quoting govern-ment sources, said the company had in2011 endorsed the delivery of 54armoured vehicles of that type at a costof €195m (US$248m) and has alsoendorsed the delivery of other vehiclesat the cost of €286m. Berlin has alsounderwritten a €2.13bn deal for twowarships. (Echourouk El Youmi, Algiers 11/11; Der Spiegel Online 12/11)

Meanwhile Al Jazeera (15/11) revealsthat the US has allowed Algeria accessto a high-tech security system, linkingintelligence services in Europe andAfrica and helping them track downarmed groups, particularly in northMali.

The system, to which other Africancountries will have access, helps thempre-empt terrorist attacks and stop thespread of terrorism to other countries inthe continent, according to Algeriannewspapers cited by Al-Jazeera.

Algerian political scientist, MustaphaSaid, said there was a “deep-rooted”security partnership between the USand countries in North Africa and theSahel dating back to the 2002 Pan-Sahel Initiative and the 2006Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Initia-tive.

“In the wake of the Mali crisis, therehave been efforts in the context of thatsecurity partnership to make use ofAmerican high-tech capabilities, suchas radar systems, which can monitor

movements of terror and organizedcrime groups in the event of a militaryaction in north Mali,” he said.

Under an agreement between Algeria,Mauritania, Mali and Niger, the fourcountries are to make use of “foreignlogistic, technical and intelligenceresources”, mostly from the US, heexplained.

Al-Jazeera asked whether allowing Alge-ria to join the high-tech system is anattempt to make it play a role in theimminent offensive in Mali that goesbeyond logistic support.

“Through security partnership, Algeriacontributes to global counterterrorismefforts by sharing information and data,he answered.

During the last meeting of the EconomicCommunity of West African States(ECOWAS) held in Bamako, he said,Algeria stated clearly that it will makeuse of the intelligence sharing scheme.

Said recalled that under the 2002security partnership, the US has givenUS$100m in annual counterterrorismassistance to seven countries, three inthe Maghreb region and four in sub-Saharan Africa. (Al-Jazeera TV, Doha 15/11)

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19504 – Africa Research Bulletin Military

GUINEA BISSAUArmy Reform

ECOWAS support is aimed at creatingstability and an environment conduciveto holding elections.

Chronically unstable Guinea-Bissaureceived US$63m on November 7thfrom the Economic Community of WestAfrican States (ECOWAS) to help thecountry reform its army as it recoversfrom an April coup.

The aid was handed over to transitionalauthorities in a ceremony in Bissauattended by ECOWAS Commissionchief Kadre Desire Ouedraogo and Gui-nea-Bissau’s Foreign Minister FaustinoFudut Imbali.

The transitional authorities and ECO-WAS also formalised the presence of a638-strongarmedwestAfricanforce inthecountry.Theforce,knownasECOMIB, ischarged with securing transition bodies.

It replaces a contingent ofAngolan troopswhose presence in the country wasstrongly opposed by the military,prompting an army junta to overthrowthe government of Carlos Gomes Junioron April 12th, in between two rounds of apresidential election. ECOWAS, ofwhichGuinea-Bissau is a member, condemnedthe putsch but later accepted an agree-ment between the junta and politiciansand lifted sanctions against the country.

The interim government is planning tohold elections in 2013. (© AFP 7/11 2012)Coup Mastermind Arrested p. 19491

IN BRIEFAfrican Union: The AU held a simulatedtraining programme, code-named OperationNjiwa, at the Eastern Africa Standby Brigadeheadquarters, to gauge the readiness of itspolice and civilian components, ahead of theformal launch of the African Standby Force(ASF).

African countries aim to launch the ASF,comprising of regional armies, which will bedeployed to maintain continental peace andstability. (PANA, Addis Ababa 30/10)

Comoros: A court on November 2nd acquit-ted the former head of the army, GeneralSalimou Amiri, of complicity in the murderof a high-ranking officer, Combo Ayouba onJune 13th 2010 during a crisis between themilitary hierarchy and former presidentAhmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi.

Three other soldiers accused of carrying outthe murder were also acquitted, though theprosecutor had asked for the death penaltyfor one of them and lifelong forced labour foranother. (© AFP 2/11 2012)

ECOWAS: The 5th MEDays internationalforum ended on November 17th in Moroccowith the Tangier Declaration proposing anew global security strategy based on regio-nal co-operation and the pooling of defenceefforts.

The statement from forum attendees encour-aged ECOWAS to take the lead in resolvingthe Mali crisis. The declaration also urged theArab League, the EU and other internationalpartners to support initiatives aimed at boost-ing Maghreb integration. (Magharebia.com18/11)

Ghana: President John Mahama has inaugu-rated two surveillance aircraft at TakoradiAir Force base, and two vessels, GNS NaaGbewaa and GNS Yaa Asantewaa, at SekondiNaval Base, Western Region, to enhance theprotection of the country’s marine and airspace. The surveillance aircraft for the AirForce and the two vessels for the Ghana Navyare to ward off piracy, illegal bunkering, drugtrafficking and illegal fishing. (Daily Graphic,Accra 20/10)

Kenya: A global private defence firm hasestablished a military-vehicles manufacturingplant in Mombasa, as it aims to tap into thegrowing security needs of the region’s gov-ernment defence forces and peacekeepingmissions.

Osprea Logistics, with headquarters in theUK, says it is setting up a US$42m facilitythat will initially assemble Mamba Mk5armoured trucks before moving to othermilitary products.

Mk5 can carry 11 passengers, withstand tripleanti-tank land-mines and large improvisedexplosive devices, and can deliver an opera-tional range of over 600 kms.

Production will start in January 2013, with 30units being manufactured each month. (DailyNation website, Nairobi 14/11)

Liberia: A squad of 558 Chinese troopsassigned for the United Nations-mandatedpeacekeeping mission (UNMIL) arrived onNovember 13th. A second squad was due toarrive 10 days later.

Comprising 275 engineers, 240 members ofthe infantry and 43 medical staff, all from theBeijing Military Area Command, the troopswill assume an eight-month-long mission inLiberia, replacing a previous Chinese peace-keeping team.

Their duties will include constructing roads,bridges and bunkers, repairing houses andairports, maintaining water and electricitysupply facilities, transportation, as well asmedical treatment and epidemic prevention.(Xinhua news agency, Beijing 13/11)

Mauritania: A top-level French military dele-gation ended a four-day visit to Nouakchotton November 8th that focused on terrorismand the conflict in Mali.

The delegation was led by General BrunoCl�ement-Boll�ee, head of Security andDefence Co-operation at the French ForeignMinistry. The French officials met Maurit-anian army chiefs, as well as with Maurit-anian Interior Minister Mohamed OuldBoilil.

Over the previous year, France gave Mauri-tania €2.6m in defence assistance. (Maghare-bia.com 9/11)

Rwanda: Belgium has stopped military coop-eration with Rwanda, Pieter De Crem, theBelgian Minister of Defence, told parliamenton November 7th.

The decision follows a report by UN expertsaccusing the Kigali regime of providing armsand troops to the DR Congolese rebel groupM23. According to the report, the M23 ispurportedly controlled by the Rwandan Min-ister of Defence, James Kabarebe. (PANA,Brussels 9/11)

AFRICA – USReaction to Obama’s Victory

While there remains doubt over thePresident’s first-term record, the elec-tion result was celebrated across thecontinent.

African heads of states on November 7thwelcomed Barack Obama’s sweepingvictory and vowed to strengthen co-operation, hoping that the US would

continue to play a positive role in thecontinent’s development.

Obama’s unwillingness to visit Africancountries during his first term raisedmany questions on whether the Africancontinent is among his priorities. Hespent less than 24 hours in sub-SaharanAfrica – a flying visit to Ghana in 2009.

Lindiwe Zulu, international relationsadviser to South Africa’s President JacobZuma, and openly pro-Obama, hopedthat over the next four years Africa

would occupy a higher space in hisagenda. “We are hoping that this timearound he will even be able to visitSouth Africa, because if he doesn’t, wewon’t forgive him for that!”

Zuma offered his own congratulations.“We value our relations with the UnitedStates and look forward to strengthen-ing bilateral co-operation in the years tocome,” he said.

Barack Obama’s victory was immenselypopular across the continent, nowheremore so than in Kogelo, the Kenyanvillage where his late father was born,reported The Guardian, London (7/11).Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki said itwas “a well deserved victory” adding

Overseas Relations

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that “Kenya, as always is proud of ourassociation with you,”

The chorus of congratulation was joinedby Nigerian President Goodluck Jona-than, whose own election campaign bor-rowed conspicuously from Obama’s.

Egypt’s Islamist President MohamedMursi hailed his US counterpart’s re-election and said he hoped it wouldstrengthen the “friendship” betweentheir two countries. Despite the fall ofits key regional ally, president HosniMubarak, Egypt remains the secondlargest recipient of US foreign aid –after Israel – totalling $1.5bn a year,mostly for its military.

AFP quoted African Union (AU) chair-man Thomas Boni Yayi as urging thenewly re-elected President to show morecommitment to resolving crises on theAfrican continent.

Hillary Clinton has coordinated USdiplomacy on Mali with US Ambassa-dor to the UN, Susan Rice, who isnow frontrunner to take over from heras Secretary of State in January. Rice,a former Assistant Secretary of Statefor Africa and an Africa specialist onthe National Security Council, is wellknown on the continent, writes PatrickSmith in his Africa Confidential blog(13/11). She takes a robust line withSudan’s Islamist regime; in Kigali she isseen as a good friend of Rwanda asother Western governments pull backon diplomacy and aid after successiveUN reports accused Kigali of backingfor militias in eastern DR Congo (seep. 19487).

South Africa’s Business Day said MrObama’s eloquent and conciliatoryacceptance speech will surely have raisedhopes that more can be achieved in asecond term. (Sources as referenced in text)

EGYPT – GAZA – ISRAELCairo Brokers Fragile Truce

Egypt mediates, staging a powerfulcomeback on the international stageand winning praise from the US, Israeland Hamas.

An Egyptian-brokered truce deal cameinto effect on November 21st endingeight days of bloodshed, with bothIsrael and the ruling Hamas movementin Gaza claiming victory while remain-ing wary. In Gaza, Hamas declared theday to be a public holiday to mark theend of hostilities, announced in Egyptby Foreign Minister Mohammed KamelAmr at a news conference with USSecretary of State Hillary Clinton. MsClinton pointedly praised the “respon-sibility and leadership” of EgyptianPresident Mohammed Mursi, who

played a key role in applying pressureto Hamas. Hamas is an offshoot ofEgypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, which isclosely aligned with Mursi.

The deal – brokered by the new Islamistgovernment – signals the shifting polit-ical landscape of the region, according toThe Times, London (22/11). Just monthsinto his role as Egypt’s first democrati-cally elected leader, Mursi became themain interlocutor between Israel andHamas, as Israel pummeled the enclavewith airstrikes and Gaza-based militantsfired rockets at southern Israeli towns.Violence had continued to the lastmoments before the truce. At least 112Palestinians and three Israelis were killedduring Israeli air strikes against Gaza,which were launched in a bid to stopmilitants firing rockets into the Jewishstate.

Details leaked to the Egyptian mediasaid the ceasefire was a four-point planunder which Israel and the Palestiniangroups both commit to cease all hostileactivity in Gaza or around its borders,and Israel will lift border controls,easing restrictions on the movementof goods and people in and out ofGaza.

The United Nations (UN) SecurityCouncil urged both sides to respect thehard-won ceasefire deal while hailingEgypt for mediating an end to thebloodshed, AFP reported (22/11).Under the agreement Egypt will nowplay a key role in implementing peacebetween the two sides.

Addressing reporters in Cairo, Hamasleader Khaled Meshaal declared: “TheIsraeli conspiracy has failed. Theywanted to conduct an election campaignand they wanted to test Egypt.” Egypt“did not forget its status as an Arabnation,” he went on.

The bargain that was struck betweenIsrael and Hamas marks a powerfulcomeback by Egypt on the interna-tional stage. The country has longprided itself on being the central arbi-ter of diplomatic and cultural power inthe Middle East but had becomeincreasingly irrelevant under HosniMubarak. The Israeli bombardmentof Gaza posed a major challenge forthe Mursi presidency. He had to listento popular opinion that he supportHamas and the Palestinian cause in away that Mubarak never did, and thecountry’s powerful military would notaccept that Egypt’s ties with the USand Israel be jeopardised.

The rapid changes in Egypt have left theUnited States and Israel with a lesspliant but potentially stronger partner,analysts say, as Mursi can claim to speakfor the Egyptian people in a way Mu-

barak never could. And Egypt’s pledgeto underwrite the cease-fire may lay thefoundations for Cairo to serve as atrusted go-between in any future peacenegotiations, writes Michael Birnbaumof the Washington Post in The Indepen-dent, London (22/11).

Mursi managed to keep Israel’s trustwhile still reflecting Egyptian publicopinion, which long chafed at Muba-rak’s deferential approach to the neigh-bour across the Sinai desert.

This time around, Egypt came downfirmly on the side of Palestinians, whilestill keeping its peace with Israel andshuttling between the warring sides. Hisrapid response to the escalation in Gazamay also have been intended to com-pensate for a controversial letter he hadsent to the Israeli President, ShimonPeres, for the accreditation of the newEgyptian ambassador to Israel a fewweeks earlier. The very friendly languageof the letter, which was signed off with“Your faithful friend”, caused angryreactions in Egypt and led to accusationsthat Mursi was no different from Mu-barak.

“Egypt’s new government is assumingthe responsibility and leadership that haslong made this country a cornerstone ofregional stability and peace,” Secretaryof State Clinton said at the November21st press conference. Israel offeredcautious support, promising to “give achance” to the Egyptian proposal. IsraeliPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid: “I would like ... to express myappreciation for the efforts of Egypt toobtain a cease-fire,” he said in Jerusa-lem.

Mursi had been quick to condemn theIsraeli assault, calling it a “flagrantaggression against humanity”, buyinghimself time with his own public towork diplomatic channels to end thehostilities. The President recalled hisambassador from Tel Aviv and sent hisprime minister to Gaza on November16th in the midst of the fighting.

US officials say President Obama hadbeen impressed by Mr Mursi’s pragma-tism and honesty during the crisis andnow considered him a trusted partner.

“The feeling here was that he came in asa bit of an unknown quantity,” said anObama administration official. ButMursi came through, the official said,on both Gaza and the storming of theUS embassy in Cairo in September(p. 19434).

The ceasefire may yet break down, butanalysts believe that Mr Mursi couldbecome a key mediator between thetwo bitter enemies. (Sources as referencedin text) Sinai military offensive p. 19385

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19506 – Africa Research Bulletin Overseas Relations

SUDAN – ISRAELBombing of Weapons Facility

An Israeli attack on a Khartoum armsfactory highlights its tougher line inAfrica and growing Sudanese ties withIran.

Taken by surprise, Khartoum officials atfirst offered contradictory explanationsfor a devastating attack on the ElYarmouk arms factory in Khartoum ataround midnight on October 23rd-24th.After emergency discussions, the regimeblamed Israel and complained to theUnited Nations (UN) Security Council.Although Iran and Arab governmentscondemned the attack, there was littlereal Arab support and virtually nonefrom elsewhere.

The trigger for the bombing of the ElYarmouk Industrial Complex was anattack on Israel from Gaza using Suda-nese-made rockets, a senior Sudaneseopposition source claimed. As always,Israel declined to confirm or deny theattack but one serving official told AfricaConfidential that the reason was devel-opments in the Sinai Desert, whereal Qaeda and other jihadists had builtup bases as Egypt’s former regime underPresident Hosni Mubarak was losingcontrol.

“We need time to understand exactlywhat happened here, but the role ofSudan is clear: it is a dangerous terroriststate,” the Israeli Defence Ministry’sDirector of Policy and Political MilitaryAffairs, Major General (Retired) AmosGilad, told Israeli Army Radio.

After a strike against a Sudanese armsconvoy in January 2009, the then IsraeliPrime Minister, Ehud Olmert, said: “Weoperate in every area where terroristinfrastructures can be struck. We areoperating in locations near and far, andattack in a way that strengthens and

increases deterrence. There is no point inelaborating. Everyone can use theirimagination. Whoever needs to know,knows.” At the time, Khartoum’sNational Congress Party (NCP) regimehad kept quiet about the attack untilrelatives of the victims leaked it. Thesilence was later seen as an admissionthat the NCP was moving weapons viaSinai to the ruling Hamas in Gaza.

Meteor Rockets

This time, say opposition and othersources, the rockets for Gaza were Shi-hab (meteor), probably Shihab-3. Thesehave a 1,280km range. Some observersdoubted that such rockets would bedestined for Gaza or that Iran wouldallow such a powerful weapon to bemade in Sudan. Others counter that Iranneeds a reliable manufacturing centre incase of an Israeli attack. The SundayTimes, London listed Israel’s attack forceas eight F-15I aeroplanes, four carryingtwo one-tonne bombs, escorted by fourfighters; two CH53 helicopters, in casecrew rescue were required; one Boeing707 tanker, to refuel the jets and chop-pers over the Red Sea; and crucially, aGulfstream G550 ultra-long-range elec-tronic warfare jet. This was to jamSudan’s radar. Photographs released bythe United States-based Satellite SentinelProject show the main target as a 60-metre shed in the north-east of the vastYarmouk Complex and some 406.5m.containers, monitored days earlier. SSPalso noted “at least six” 16m impactcraters. Most of Yarmouk was nottargeted but it was damaged by a mas-sive fire that reignited the next day andagain on October 29th. Khartoum saidthat two people were killed and manyinjured but did not mention deaths atthe factory itself. Local reports claimedat least seven Iranian engineers died. Theregime still has rocket storage facilitiesnear Kenana, in White Nile State, saysAfrica Confidential. There were reports

in White Nile thata convoy of weap-ons had beenbombed somethree weeks ear-lier, a Sudanesesource told theLondon-basedpublication. Reu-ters quoted “Wes-tern intelligencesources” as con-firming this.

The NationalSecurity andIntelligence Ser-vice (NISS)quickly cordonedoff the area,refusing accesseven to police.

NISS officials locally blamed the attackon the Sudan People’s LiberationArmy, which only served to enhancethe image of regime disarray, since theSPLA (North or South) has no air-power. Khartoum State Governor Ab-del Rahman el Khidr then explainedthat the fire had spread because of“dry grass”, after which the SudanArmed Forces Spokesman, LieutenantColonel Sawarmi Khalid Saad, blameda welder. The NCP Spokesman, Pro-fessor Badr el Din Ahmed Ibrahim,offered yet another version and it washours before Culture and InformationMinister Ahmed Bilal Osman blamedIsrael.

Sudanese reacted with derision: “Thegovernment spends its energy on crush-ing the people not defending the coun-try,” one commented. Most of Sudan’sweapons – manufactured or imported(mainly from China, Iran, Russia, Bela-rus and Ukraine) – have been used athome. Khartoum’s growing militarycooperation with Iran suggests it wantsto build a serious arms export industry.Sudan’s relations with Iran – militaryand other – were active from soon afterthe 1989 coup but grew strongly after the2008 and 2009 defence agreements. In2008, the then Iranian Defence Minister,Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, describedSudan as “the pivot of Iran-Africarelations”. Under President MahmoudAhmadinejad, Iran’s push into Africa hasgrown rapidly. Israel monitors the tiesbetween Tehran and Khartoum: “Weknow that it is also involved in shippingarms and weapons to Libya throughDarfur. From Darfur, weapons also goto Chad and Mali. Meanwhile, Irancontinues to increase its interests in theregion through business links and sup-port of domestic wars,” an official said.

After the Yarmouk bombing, the Khar-toum government emphasised its sup-port for Palestine and Muslim causes butbarely mentioned Iran. Tehran hadother ideas. “A task force of the 22ndIranian army docked in Sudan thismorning,” the Iranian Students’ NewsAgency reported (29/10). The task forcecomprised “a helicopter fleet anddestroyer ships, which have been sentto Sudan with a message of peace andsecurity to the neighbouring countriesand also of confronting terrorism.”

Khartoum again declared itself at warwith Israel. It also complained to theUN Security Council, where Ambassa-dor Dafa’allah el Haj Ali Osman told theCouncil that Israel “was the main factorbehind the conflict in Darfur”. (AfricaConfidential 2/11)

On November 2nd, South Africa’sDepartment of International Relationsand Cooperation issued a statement on

SAFAT COMPOUND FOR AIRCRAFTWadi Seidna Air Base

Nile

Um Bedda Halfaya

E. Nile

20 km10 miles

Souk El ArabiKhartoum International Airport

Soba

Salha

El Hillael Jadida

White N

ile

Blue Nile

Tuti l.

KhartoumNorth (Bahri)

Omdurman

KHARTOUM

KAFOURI FACILITY

EL ZARGHA PLANT

EL YARMOUK ARMS FACTORY COMPOUND

IBRAHIM SHAMS EL DINCOMPOUND

(Africa-confidential.com)

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its official website condemning in thestrongest terms the attack on the Al-Yarmuk ammunitions facility by anIsraeli military aircraft. (Department ofInternational Relations website, Pretoria 2/11)Military relations with Iran Vol. 48 p. 19030

IN BRIEFAfrica – UN: Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Gabon,Kenya and Sierra Leone were among thoseelected to the United Nations Human RightsCouncil on November 12th. Amnesty Inter-national said the UN should only elect thosestates able to show commitment to humanrights and singled out Cote d’Ivoire inparticular as falling short on this front.(Amnesty International, PANA 11/11)

DR Congo: The US on November 5th urgedthe DR Congo to investigate an attack on apioneering doctor and founder of a rapevictims clinic. Denis Mukwege was forced toflee the country after the attempt on his life in

late October, and has sought refuge in Swe-den. At a press conference in early November,he criticized the Kinshasa government and itsneighbours for not doing enough to stop theviolence in his country.

Mukwege founded the Panzi hospital andfoundation in Bukavu to help the thousandsof women who have been raped in the easternDR Congo by members of local and foreignarmed groups, as well as by army soldiers.Every year, the hospital’s main programmefor the victims of sexual violence treatsaround 3,000 women. (© AFP 6/11; US StateDepartment 5/11)

Libya – US: General David Petraeus hasclaimed that he always believed the USambassador to Libya was murdered during a“terrorist attack”, even though the Obamaadministration initially described the killingdifferently, reports The Independent, London(16/11). In closed-doors testimony on CapitolHill, the former head of the CIA reportedlytold lawmakers that his agency’s draft “talk-ing points” on the September 11th Benghazi

tragedy were edited by other security agenciesbefore being shared with the White House.

The claim will give fresh legs to conspiracytheories already swirling around the death ofthe Ambassador, Christopher Stevens. It alsoappears to contradict the evidence that Gen.Petraeus gave at a hearing in September.(Sources as referenced in text) US embassy

attack rethink p. 19470

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius saidon November 12th his country could helpLibya tackle security issues. The first repre-sentative of a foreign government to addressthe Libyan national assembly, Fabius said: “Ipropose scaling up our security and defencecooperation to help you build the army andpolice forces that Libya needs.”

Fabius said France was also ready to helpLibya, a transit point for thousands of sub-Saharan African migrants seeking a better lifein Europe, to monitor its borders. (© AFP12/11)

RELIGIONEgypt

The enthronement of a new religiousleader comes at an uncertain time forthe country’s Christians.

In an elaborate ceremony, Wagih Sob-hy Bakky Suleiman, a 60-year-oldtrained pharmacist who headed a med-icine factory until 1986, was chosen onNovember 4th as the 118th pope tolead Egypt’s Coptic Church in a linedating back to the origins of Chris-tianity and to Saint Mark, the apostleand author of one of the four Gospels,who brought the new faith to Egypt.He will head the largest Christianminority in the Middle East under thename Tawadros II. He succeeds PopeShenuda III, who headed the churchfor four decades. Shenuda died inMarch leaving behind a communityanxious about its status under anIslamist-led government.

The new pope obtained a clerical degreein 1985 and was made a monk in 1988at Saint Bishoy monastery in WadiNatrun, northeast of Cairo. In 1997he was consecrated bishop. Tawadros IIworked with the powerful Bishop Pa-chomius, who was appointed actinghead of the church after the death ofShenuda III.

Noted for his knowledge of theology, hefavours a more pastoral role for theChurch and rarely involves himself inpolitical matters, according to AFP (5/11).

Despite the optimistic words of Patri-arch Kyrillos VI, a former Pope whoonce claimed that Egypt’s Muslims andChristians were one people “worship-ping the same God in two differentways”, many Copts are feeling increas-ingly isolated, writes The Independent,London (4/11).

The process of writing a new constitu-tion has been dominated by an Islamist-led assembly, while elections since thefall of the old regime have revealedrobust support for fundamentalistswanting to shoehorn sharia law ontothe political agenda.

In addition, the poll comes after years oftensions over church-building permitsand the highly combustible issues ofconversions and intra-religious loveaffairs.

Tawadros’ official biography stresses hiswish for good relations with Muslims,saying he has “asked the media toaccentuate common values between thetwo religions to avoid extremism andconsolidate national unity.”

Copts, who make up six to 10% of the83m population, have regularly com-plained of discrimination and marginal-isation, even under the secular regime ofpresident Hosni Mubarak.The subse-quent rise of Islamists, and the electionof the country’s first Islamist president,Mohamed Mursi, have sparked fears offurther persecution at home despiteMursi’s repeated promises to be a pres-ident “for all Egyptians”. Mursi had sentTawadros a congratulatory message, theofficial MENA news agency reported.

He wished the new pope “success in hisefforts to achieve unity for the Egyptianpeople”.

Pope Tawadros II said he would reject aconstitution still in the making if itimposed a religious state, newspapersreported on November 6th.

Copts have suffered an increase inattacks that killed dozens of Christiansafter the overthrow of Mubarak andmany had opposed Mursi’s election inJune. Shenuda III had beseeched Chris-tians to be patient in confronting sectar-ian strife, but many have cast doubt onsuch calls for restraint as the attacksmultiplied. Five Coptic Christians wereinjured on October 28th in clashes withMuslims at a church in a village south ofCairo, security sources said. The vio-lence took place as Muslim villagersattempted to block access to the churchas the Coptic faithful arrived fromthroughout the area to attend Sundaymass.

Bishop Morcos, chairman of thechurch’s influential media committee,recently told the state-owned Al-Ahramweekly “we reject the notion of a reli-gious state that would prevent us fromexercising our freedom as Copts”

“The state should be ruled by law andnot religion,” he said.

Mursi has pledged to allow the Chris-tians equal rights, but the once bannedMuslim Brotherhood to which Mursibelongs has repeatedly said it wants togradually impose an Islamic state.

Tawadros II was formally enthronedon November 18th as Pope of Alexan-dria and Patriarch of All Africa in theHoly See of St Mark the Apostle at aceremony lasting nearly four hours,attended by the nation’s Muslim prime

Social and Cultural

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19508 – Africa Research Bulletin Social and Cultural

minister and a host of cabinet ministersand politicians. (Sources as referenced intext)

NigeriaAbuja’s Archbishop, bridge-builderbetween Christianity and Islam,becomes a Cardinal.

The Nigerian archbishop named byPope Benedict XVI to the Vatican’sCollege of Cardinals in late October saidhis appointment was “a great honour toAfrica”.

John Olufemi Onaiyekan, the archbishopof Abuja, was one of six non-Europeanprelates nominated by the pope to theelite body that remains heavily weightedin favour of Europe.

Onaiyekan has won widespread respectfor his efforts to ease religious tensionsin Nigeria, Africa’s most populousnation, where divisions have led todeadly clashes.

He has used the pulpit to speak againstmisgovernance and build bridgesbetween Islam and Christianity in acountry almost evenly divided betweenthe two faiths.

With Nigeria facing a deadly insurgencyby Islamist extremist group Boko Ha-ram, a number of Evangelical leadershave ominously raised the possibility ofChristians being forced to defend them-selves.

Onaiyekan has however been a voice ofreason and has urged calm, saying BokoHaram extremists were not representa-tive of average Muslims in the country.

He co-chairs a key inter-religious forumwith Nigeria’s top Islamic leader,Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar.

Joseph Faniran of the Catholic Instituteof West Africa said Onaiyekan “richlydeserves” the appointment.

Onaiyekan, who holds a doctorate inbiblical theology, was ordained as aCatholic priest in 1969 and appointed

by the late Pope John Paul II as apermanent member of the Synod ofBishops in Rome. (© AFP, Lagos 24/102012)

SwazilandThe Anglican Church of SouthernAfrica consecrates its first womanbishop in Africa.

Ellinah Wamukoya, 61, became Africa’sfirst Anglican woman bishop on Novem-ber 17th, BBC News Online reported (20/11). David Dinkebogile, who led theceremony, stressed that the gatheringwas to consecrate a bishop “not a blackwoman, not an African, not a Swaziwoman”.

She was to be “pastor to all, to men andwomen, to black and white, to Swazisand all others in her diocese,” he said.

Bishop Wamukoya is a former mayor ofSwaziland’s economic capital, Manzini,the AFP news agency reported.

Her consecration comes as the Churchof England faces controversial issues,and voted on November at its GeneralSynod against the ordination of womenbishops, to the dismay of many withinthe Church – including Justin Welbyrecently named as the next Archbishopof Canterbury – and the establishment.(Sources as referenced in the text)

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