africa’s emerging partnerships: the role of china · 2018-05-02 · trading profile •...

Africa’s Emerging Partnerships: The Role of China

African Economic Outlook 2010 Expert Meeting

Organised by the OECD, AfDB, UNECA and UNDP

12th October 2010, Paris, France

Hannah Edinger, Senior Manager, Frontier Advisory

Discussion Points

• Introduction to China-Africa Relations

• Trends in Commercial Engagement

• Trade

• Investment & Financing Activities

• Development Assistance

• Policy Issues

• Conclusion

Introduction to China-Africa Relations

The Role of China in Africa?

China in Africa

• The new colonialists?

• The new capitalists ?

• The new (last?) partners in Africa‟s

development?

Relevance of historical relations

• Commercial relations between China & Africa have gained significant

momentum in the last decade

• But trade relations date back several centuries, to the 8th Century, 14th-15th

Century

• Engagement & friendship post formation of People‟s Republic of China in 1949

• Since 1955 Bandung Conference in particular: Asian and African states re-

enforced non-alignment and greater economic and cultural cooperation

• Ideological solidarity for Africa, against colonialism & imperialism, backing newly

independent African states

• Support to African states to gain support for China in UN Security Council,

backed by infrastructure loans and agricultural cooperation

• Period characterised by ideological drivers as China sought political support

• With internal reforms post 1978 in China, support for Africa waned

• In the late 1990s support for Africa increased again as China‟s growth rate

escalated


Contemporary relations

• Since turn of the century there has been a shift in China‟s policy towards Africa

• As “China Inc.” started to internationalise after 1998, Africa became a strategic

focus for Chinese outward-bound companies, especially in the extractive

industries

• Beijing accorded Africa renewed political importance, based on geo-strategic

and commercial interests, rather than ideological ones

• Renewed focus between China and Africa resulted in conceptualisation in

FOCAC

• Vehicle to coordinate China‟s foreign policy objectives in Africa; roadmaps

of engagement

• Greater political and diplomatic engagement through FOCAC has paved

commercial relations & has facilitated inroads of Chinese companies into key

sectors


Source: IMF, EIU, Frontier Advisory analysis

Almost an absolute correlation

after 1999 – Coincided with

China‟s New Africa Policy

1996 1999 2007 Beginnings of a growth correlation

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010f

%

Africa real GDP growth China real GDP growth

Africa‟s growth is tracking the

V-shaped recovery of China

since mid-2008

1999-2008: Growth correlation of 0.919972!

China & Africa – the new growth coupling

China-Africa Trade Relations

Greater political ties paving way for trade relations

• DIRECT: Greater political and diplomatic engagement has paved the way for

increasing inroads of Chinese corporates into key sectors and trade

• INDIRECT: China‟s rise has further integrated Africa into the global trading

system given increasing trade with the continent

• Global economic and financial crisis has seen China displace key trade partners

of Africa: in 2009 China became the #1 trading partner of SA

• China became the second single largest trading partner of the continent end

2008

• This has increased Sino-African trade in two ways:

• Securing access to commodity resources and thus bolstering African

exports to China (resource-seeking)

• Brought the product supply chain of largely construction and engineering

companies to Africa; seeing increasing African imports of capital and

consumer goods (market-seeking)

Introduction to the Trading Relationship

Lower commodity prices informed lower trade values in „09

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

US

$ m

China's imports from Africa China's exports to Africa

Source: China Customs, World Trade Atlas;

Sandrey & Edinger (2010)

• Trade up from $3.9bn in

1995, to $106.8bn in 2008,

and down 15.7% to $90.01bn

in 2009

• Target of $100bn by 2010

• Chinese imports from Africa

down 24.34% due to lower

commodity prices

• Chinese exports to Africa

down only 6.18%

• Main imports into China

continue to be oil (66%)

• Africa mitigated some of the

losses of the crisis by

“running faster”

The trading relationship

Trading profile

• Africa‟s trading profile dominated by

resource exports and thus by key

economies

• In 2007, about 70% of exports made

up of crude oil

• In 2007, about 80% of all exports

constituted crude oil, iron ore, wood,

diamonds (highly concentrated)

• On imports side, key imports

include: machinery and capital

goods, consumer goods including

clothing & textiles, electronics, etc.

(more diversified)

Underpinned by resource exports

Source: World Trade Atlas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Pe

rce

nta

ge

(%

)

Exports of repaired imports Diamonds Wood Iron ore Crude Oil

Key trading partners

• Looking at Africa, trade is dominated

by resource-exporting countries

• 4 countries: Angola, South Africa,

Sudan and Nigeria together accounted

for 55% of Africa‟s trade with China in

2008

• Key exporters: Angola, South Africa,

Sudan, Congo (74.42% of total value:

$55.9bn)

• Key importers: South Africa, Nigeria,

Egypt, Angola (47.35% of total value:

$50.9bn)

And dominated by select partners

Source: China Customs, World Trade Atlas

Key partners in 2008 US$ bn Cum share

Angola 25.3 23.7%

South Africa 17.8 40.4%

Sudan 8.2 48.0%

Nigeria 7.3 54.9%

Egypt 6.2 60.7%

Algeria 4.5 64.9%

Congo 4.3 68.9%

Libya 4.2 72.8%

Morocco 2.8 75.5%

Eq Guinea 2.5 77.8%

Benin 2.4 80.1%

Gabon 1.9 81.8%

DRC 1.8 83.5%

Ghana 1.8 85.2%

Ethiopia 1.3 86.4%

Total Africa 106.8 100%

Africa‟s trade:

China vs the US

• How different is Africa‟s X

profile to China from its X

profile to the US?

• How different is China‟s X

profile to Africa from its X

profile to the world?

But shows striking similarities

Source: US Department of Commerce and World

Trade Atlas data, in Sandrey and Edinger (2010)

HS Sections

Africa to

China

Africa to

the US

China to

Africa

China to

World

Total $ billion 55,883 113,520 50,869 1,428,869

Mineral fuels 83.9% 86.1% 1.6% 2.5%

Precious metal 3.2% 4.2% 0.1% 0.6%

Textiles & articles 0.8% 2.0% 17.5% 12.5%

Transport 0.0% 1.7% 11.0% 5.0%

Base metals 4.6% 1.5% 13.9% 10.1%

Chemicals 0.7% 1.3% 4.6% 4.8%

Prepared food 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3%

Machinery & elect 0.7% 0.6% 31.8% 42.7%

Special 2.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1%

Vegetable fruit 0.3% 0.4% 1.5% 0.8%

Plastics & rubber 0.3% 0.3% 4.3% 2.9%

Wood 1.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8%

Animal prod 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6%

Misc man 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 5.8%

Footwear etc 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 2.5%

Stone/glass/ceramics 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 1.6%

Pulp & paper 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7%

Instruments 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 3.3%

Stone/glass/ceramics 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 1.6%

Key export & import partners

in 2008

• Oil exporters of Angola, Sudan,

Congo; recently also Libya

• Iron ore in the case of South Africa

• Large trade deficits for China in

terms of Angola, Sudan and Congo

• Imports from China in Nigeria and

Egypt dominated by construction

related materials, consumer and

capital goods

• South Africa near balanced trade

China-Africa Trade Figures

Source: World Trade Atlas

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Angola South Africa

Sudan Congo Nigeria Egypt

$m

Exports to China Imports from China

China‟s top trading

partners in 2009

• Top 10 trade partners include

US, Germany, Australia and

other Asian economies

• If Africa were a single

country, in 2009 it would

have been China‟s 7th largest

trade partner

Individual African states not significant

Source: China Customs Data, Frontier Advisory analysis

2009

Rank

Country/

region

Volume

(US$ bn)

% change

over 2008

1 United States 298.3 -10.6

2 Japan 228.9 -14.2

3 Hong Kong 174.9 -14.1

4 South Korea 156.2 -16

5 Taiwan 106.2 -17.8

6 Germany 105.7 -8.1

- Africa 90.1 -15.7

7 Australia 60.1 0.7

8 Malaysia 52 -3

9 Singapore 47.9 -8.8

10 India 43.4 -16.3

• Dramatic increase of direct trade between China and Africa

• Investments/credit lines/barter deals resulting in a surge of trade

• Some growing trade surpluses with China

• Largest for oil producers

• But large trade deficits with China

• Little trade in intermediate goods

• Exporting commodities to China (without adding much value)

• Importing consumer goods and capital goods into Africa

• China‟s trading partners in Africa highly concentrated

• 4 countries form bulk of trade

• Trade flows closely follow comparative advantages

• China exports labour-intensive manufactures and high-tech products

• Africa exports raw materials and mineral fuels

• Agricultural products not as prominent yet due to comparative advantages

• Competition of China re manufacturing capacity (particularly textiles) in Africa

and opportunities in third markets

Stylised Trade Facts

Several direct & indirect channels & effects

1) Growth of African exports to China complementary effect

2) Increased competition in third markets for Africa competitive effect

3) Increased Chinese competition in Africa competitive effect

4) Effects of FDI – competitive and complementary effects

5) Indirect impact through commodity prices

6) Increasing Chinese demand resulting in increasing global demand

7) Impact of Dutch disease/ postponed industrialisation/ “deagriculturalisation”


Direct & indirect impacts

in terms of TOTs

- Potential winners:

resource-rich countries

- Potential losers:

agric commodity

producers/textile

producers, oil importers

- Mixed:

cotton, metal or mineral

exporters but oil

importers


Measures facilitating trade

• Inroads of China Inc into Africa in various sectors

• Supply chain that follows facilitating imports into Africa

• Provision of export credit facilities

• Lack of industrial and supply-side capacity in Africa

• Preferential access of LDC products into China; but diplomatic offering has

limited economic benefits

• 440 products; 95% of all products by 2012

• Key exports (resources) already have almost duty-free access given the nature

of trade

• Average assessed duty is 0.83% for African exports at Chinese border

• But raw cotton attracts duties of about 40%

Market Access & Barriers

Measures hindering trade

• Barriers to trade for African products: tariff measures and non-tariff barriers to

trade

• Lack of FTA?

• SACU-China FTA benefits small but impact on “trade chilling”

• Dutch disease/ lack of investment into greater value-added exports

• Not competitive: inadequate infrastructure in Africa & high transaction costs

• Language and cultural differences

• Lack of understanding distribution channels & trust

• Anti-Chinese sentiment/ Misperceptions

Market Access & Barriers

China-Africa Investment and Financing

Activities in Africa

• Chinese overseas investment

especially encouraged since 1985

• SOEs designated and supported

by state to „go global‟

• More than 5,000 domestic Chinese

investment entities had by end

2006 established over 10,000

overseas enterprises in 170

countries

• More than 8,500 domestic Chinese

investment entities had by end

2008 established over 12,000

overseas invested enterprises in

174 countries

Chinese Outward FDI

2,855 5,498

12,261

17,634

26,506

55,907

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

US

$ m

Chinese Outward FDI (2003-2008)

Source: Ministry of Commerce of PRC, National Bureau of

Statistics of PRC, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, 2009

• Asia continues to be

destination of choice for

Chinese outward FDI

• Used to be followed by Latin

America but was displaced by

Africa in 2008 (due to large

inflows into South Africa that

year)

• But offshore financial hubs

skew distribution of Chinese

FDI by region

Chinese Outward FDI

Chinese Outbound FDI flows by region (2008)



78%

10% 7%

3% 1% 1% Asia

Africa

Latin America

Oceania

Europe

North America

• Previous years, SANE economies

used to be top recipients of

Chinese FDI

• FDI flows are resource-biased

looking at FDI recipients in last few

years

• Top African recipients in 2008 were

South Africa, Nigeria, Zambia,

Algeria

• But FDI figures perhaps understate

China‟s activity on the African

continent

Chinese Outward FDI

Chinese Outbound FDI flows to Africa (2003-2008)



74.81 317.43 391.68

519.86

1,574.31

5,490.55

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

US

$ m

• FDI to Africa has been

increasing rapidly but from a

very low base

• By 2006, 800 Chinese

companies in Africa, dominated

by activity of SOEs

• By 2008, 2,000 Chinese

companies in Africa including

also more small private

businesses

Chinese Outward FDI

Change in China‟s Outbound FDI Flows (2003-2008)



254%

504%

531%

1,858%

2,793%

5,661%

7,239%

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Latin America

Europe

North America

World

Asia

Oceania

Africa

%

Investment: Chinese companies‟ inroads into the continent

• Sino-African trade spurred by inroads of Chinese companies

• Investments of these companies in recent years mainly in extractive industries

but expanding and diversifying across sectors

• Chinese investments on the continent up significantly but from a low base

• But data issues: disaggregated and sector data not readily available

• By 2002: $982.7m cumulative Chinese FDI in Africa (2.6% of Chinese global

cumulative outward FDI)

• By 2007: $13.5bn cumulative Chinese FDI in Africa (14%) [Sources: Gu (2009),

UNCTAD (2009)]

• Investments and inroads supported by FOCAC commitments/3-year roadmaps

• Other sources of funding also ODA and remittances

• ODA supports JVs and inroads for Chinese companies and Chinese products

into continent

• Loan/debt financing, concessional lending, grants (in-kind), other aid

Chinese Outward FDI

A commercial opportunity

• US$93bn infrastructure financing and maintenance gap in Africa

• Most visible involvement of Chinese companies in construction

• Road, rail, ports, power, ICT, social infrastructure, etc. • China‟s power sector activity is substantial

• 2001-2006: EXIM Bank alone funded more than aggregate investment of all

ODA flows and private participation in infrastructure in Africa‟s power sector

(IMF, 2008)

• Increasing bidding and tendering for projects across continent

• Vital infrastructure packages and rollouts linked to mining rights and access to

key resources (Angola Model) largely supported by Chinese Government and

financial institutions -> secured project financing

• Addressing supply side constraints vs creation of platform for private sector

expansion

• Key players

• China EXIM Bank

• CDB/CADFund

Construction & Infrastructure

CADFund: the first Chinese equity investment fund

focusing on investments in Africa capitalised to the value

of US$1bn (and up to US$5bn)

The China Exim Bank: Currently the world‟s largest

export credit agency (ECA); China‟s leading policy bank

and sole provider of govt concessional loans to Africa

China Development Bank: dedicated to the mission of

strengthening the competitiveness of China and

supporting the State's medium-to long-term development

strategies and policies; investments into Africa; capitalised

CADFund

China Construction Bank: one of the four largest

commercial banks in China – world‟s second largest

bank by market cap; involved in mainly trade finance in

South Africa, but looking to build portfolio of projects

financed

Bank of China: a leading commercial banking group;

recently signed MoU with Ecobank in Ghana.

Chinese sources of financing & investment:

Banks

ICBC: world‟s largest bank by market cap bought a

20% stake in Standard Bank, to pursue, among other

things, joint project financing in key sectors in Africa

http://www.ccb.com/

http://www.boc.cn/index.html

Investment and diversification of mounting Chinese

foreign exchange reserves, through vehicles such as

SAFE Investment Company and China Investment

Corporation

Investments of high corporate savings of SOEs;

constituted 49% of total savings in China in 2008 (HH

savings 32%; govt savings 19%)

Small private investments by entrepreneurs and traders;

remittances; etc.

Chinese companies have been making inroads also on

the back of project financing extended by the AfDB, and

the World Bank. China is winning most of AfDB

contracts and is the largest single country winning

World Bank contracts in Africa

Chinese sources of financing & investment:

Other sources

High rate of Chinese corporate

savings

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Private sources of financing

Donor finance

Other Eg. Hong Kong-based China International Fund (private

bank? Fund management company?)

After an agreement was signed in April

2008 between the DRC Government and

EXIM Bank for an approximate investment

package deal of $9bn, opposition from the

IMF has led to the investment being

reduced to approx. $6bn

The “Angola Model” has become the

stereotypical financing arrangement of

China Inc in Africa – tying commodity off-

take arrangements to an infrastructure

rollout. This is linked to key infrastructure

corridor construction by Chinese firms into

the Angolan hinterland

Key infrastructure corridors?

West-East Transport Corridor?

A green revolution in Africa?

• Characteristics of the agric sector in China vs that in Africa - constraints

• The role of the right policy framework, technology, infrastructure & extension

• Chinese cooperation in SSA agric spans over 5 decades

• Highly uncoordinated in the past

• More than 200 agric cooperation programmes since 1960 in 40 states,

including agri-technology programmes

• More than 10,000 Chinese agric experts dispatched in Africa during this period

• About 300 Africans study agric courses in China every year

• Since 2000 also shorter agric training programmes for Africans in China

• Increasing dispatching of Chinese agric experts & technicians in Africa

• Increasing FOCAC commitments re to agricultural sector development in Africa

(both directly and indirectly)

• Land grabbing?

• Agricultural demonstration centre in more than 2 dozen countries

Agriculture & agro-processing

South Africa as a destination for Chinese capital

• Largest recipient of Chinese outward FDI (Std Bank-ICBC deal)

• Largest economy in Africa with most sophisticated markets

• Limited loans/credit lines/ODA and infrastructure projects from China

• Well-developed infrastructure

• Established institutional and regulatory frameworks

• Springboard into Africa

• Access to markets

• Access to technologies

• Access to management skills

• Building global capabilities

• Established and sizable companies for JV opportunities

• Investments beyond resources

• But local ownership and BEE requirements

• Anti-Chinese sentiment?

Key country activity

China-Africa Development Assistance Relations

What is Chinese ODA?

• Chinese definition of aid vs donor language

• Project specific, package deals, turnkey projects and not programmes

• Loan financing towards larger infrastructure projects traditionally ignored by

Western partners but seen as prerequisites for growth (transport & power)

• Size of aid, aid commitments vs disbursements? Transparency?

• Concessional loans of EXIM Bank

• Uncoordinated approach – multiple players

• Complexity – multidimensional approach of cooperation: high level exchanges,

coop in international affairs, trade and inv, agric & health, aid, education & science,

culture & sports

• Bilateral approach vs multilateralism of promoting interests of LDCs

• Conditions? One-China policy; tied aid; no strings attached policy

• Loan criteria? Depending on negotiations with host country and bargaining power of

that country (eg. Angola)

Development assistance

• Aid effectiveness

• Duplication of efforts and high transaction costs for recipient countries due to

multiple donor programmes, etc; China feels its aid is effective as it is on a turnkey

basis; signed Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness

• Move towards coordination of efforts with other donors and programmes?

• Debt sustainability

• Will new loans from China undermine debt sustainability of borrowing economies?

Projects undergo evaluation for approval: • robust project returns;

• consultations with IMF offices to be in line with debt sustainability framework;

• part of country‟s development plans.

• China accused of being a free rider


• China not regular participant in donor meetings yet

• Huge barrier of suspicion

• Best outcome from China emerging as a new partner for Africa:

• Other donors step up their game as China is challenging their practices

• Reforming some of existing mechanisms which currently fall short of longer

term solutions

• Effectively there is no conclusive evidence yet on what China means for Africa‟s

development

• Sustainability of aid projects but also of investments

• require training to strengthen sufficient ownership of projects

• strengthen capacity of local workers


Policy Issues

What does the road ahead look like?

How will China influence Africa‟s development?

• Will China be different? No conclusive evidence on what China means for

African development

• Will China underpin a new economic growth path for Africa? Is there an

emerging Beijing Consensus in Africa?

• How can projects and investments be aligned to development objectives and

become more sustainable?

• Which countries will be most/least affected? Small wins and growth hotspots

• What does China‟s presence mean for regional integration in Africa?

• Does Africa need a China engagement strategy?

• Will Africa be led by the right leadership to gain from the opportunity China

presents?

• Greatest challenge to manage resource rents, to invest these LT and to

diversify economic base of economies

Diversification opportunities for Africa‟s economic profile

Three areas of support to increase Africa‟s economic activity

1) China‟s resource demand (both hard and soft commodities)

• Leverage China‟s resource demand by increasing local beneficiation and processing

capacity for key commodities instead of exporting raw commodity; positioning of

countries (eg. SA; Nigeria?)

• Role of agricultural sector?

2) China‟s constructive infrastructure rollouts

• Economic activity & competitiveness = hampered by inadequate transport, ICT,

power and water infrastructure resulting in high transaction costs

• Significant and large-scale infrastructure rollouts in power, road, rail, ICT lowering

transaction costs creating platform for private sector development & growth

• But are these rollouts part of greater country strategy?

3) China‟s rollouts of Special Economic Zones (SEZs)

• Creating of geographic dedicated zones conducive to investment, clustering of

activity, key infrastructure, export-orientated (manufactures), employment opp‟s

• Promote skills and technology transfers, establish

forward and backward linkages, increase forex earnings

Spillovers for Africa from China‟s engagement

Spillovers for Africa from China‟s engagement

China‟s impact on Africa‟s industrialisation?

• Aiding

industrialisation

versus

• Postponing

industrialisation &

diversification?

• China vs WTO

policies of the West?

Policy issues

Trade: Can Africa diversify its economic structure and

improve growth through trade with China?

• Trade creation vs trade diversion in terms

• Existing patterns of trade not in line with LT development objectives

• Need to diversify export base for LT growth and (industrial) development

• Trade policy measures in Africa reactive rather than proactive

• The role of trade preferences, addressing tariff and NTBs to trade • Lack of integration into global supply chains

• Supply-side constraints, particularly infrastructure and transaction costs

• The impact of Dutch disease – rising real exchange rate on exports

• Deindustrialisation? Destruction of industry that does exist due to imports of

cheaper Chinese products (despite the positive welfare effects); Or is it a form of

postponing industrialization in Africa?

• LT strategy – capacity building in labour-intensive industry to position long-term vis-

à-vis Chinese rising wage costs

• Defining the role of different stakeholders ito product

safety, standards and quality

Policy issues

Inadequate financial resources to finance LT development

• FDI and financing shortfall in a number of sectors • How to attract investment beyond raw material exports

• Creation of active assets & wealth creation

• Importance of channeling investment into local beneficiation

• Infrastructure investments and rollouts need to be part of greater country

development strategy

• Upping skills and technology base and stock in Africa – retaining skills

• Is Chinese investment and financing crowding out other sources of funds?

• Can Africa negotiate deals that are really best for not only the political elite?

• The role of SEZs/EPZs in creating incentives and spurring manufacturing activity,

backward & forward linkages, and regional integration

• Need to understand the interaction and interdependence between trade, aid and

investment

• Addressing issues of capacity, eg. Govt, supply of inputs

• Negotiation of contracts – potential debt build up?

• Standards, regulations, monitoring & enforcement

• Governance, transparency, etc.

Conclusion

Maximising the benefits and minimising the costs of

engagement

• What lessons and best practices can be learnt and applied from the

developmental experience of actors such as China?

• Understanding the direct but also the indirect effects of commercial relations

with China

• Understanding the competitive vs complementary effects and opportunities of

collaboration

• Understanding the diversity of actors in the engagement

• Creation of greater policy space for African countries, how best to leverage this

• Long-term sustainability of relationship

Overview of Discussion Thank You

Hannah Edinger Hannah Edinger

Senior Manager & Head of Research Research Associate

Frontier Advisory China Africa Network , GIBS

University of Pretoria

T +27 11 447 8038

F +27 11 447 8439 T +27 11 771 4332

E [email protected] F +27 86 638 2680

W www.frontieradvisory.com E [email protected]

Overview of Discussion

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africa’s emerging partnerships: the role of china · 2018-05-02 · trading profile •...

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