african agricultural development: lessons and challenges
TRANSCRIPT
African agricultural development:
lessons and challenges
Steve
Wiggins Overseas
Development Institute
Outline
3� years History … optimism & pessimism
Performance since 1990: what do weknow?
Policy: less discord, but a big challenge
HISTORYFLUCTUATING PERCEPTIONS OF AFRICAN AGRICULTURE
Optimism: vent for surplus 1880s - 1930
Ecological pessimism: Machakos, Kenya 1930s
Machakos redeemed, 1991
Sahel1968-
73• Desertification???
Africa’s dreadful 97�s
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
19
62 1
96
4 19
66 1
96
8 19
70 1
97
2 19
74 19
76 1
97
8 19
80 1
98
2 19
84
Gro
ss
Pro
dn
Food
Per
Cap
In
dex
1961/6
3 =
100, 3
year
movin
g a
v.
AfricaSouth America Asia
Explaining failure of 70s & 80s
•Variable rainfall, Infertile soil
•Disease•Distance•Neo-Malthusianism
& Eco-Doom
Geography&
environment
'Only to feed her growing population at the present level of per capita food consumption, Africa would thus need to increase her food production at a rate of, say, 3.2 per cent per year for several decades in succession. This is of course an impossible challenge for her to meet.'• (Platteau 1990: 290-1)
Hostage to fortune
Explaining failure of 70s & 80s
•Land tenure•Institutions:
finance, risk
Geography (2):exceptionalism
•Dependency•Squeeze on peasants•[Cash crops vs food
crops]
External condition
s, internal
structures
Explaining failure of 70s & 80s
•Public marketing
boards•Negative protection
•Urban bias
Policyfailin
gs
Exportables-60%
-50%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
10%
195
5 195
7 195
9 196
1 196
3 196
5 196
7 196
9 197
1 197
3 197
5 19
77
197
9 198
1 198
3 198
5 198
7 198
9 199
1 199
3 199
5 199
7 199
9 200
1 200
3 200
5
Net
Rate
of A
ssis
tan
ce
to
A
gri
cu
ltu
reAfrica: net rate of assistance to agriculture
All agriculture
1990sAgriculture lost to sight!
Ideas & lessons → ag lost to sight
•Poverty traps?•Owing to:
•High T costs?
•Government failure?
•Real costs?
(Factor) Market failings
BUT TIMES CHANGE …… OPTIMISM RETURNS
Africa, SS, economic growth 1996 to 2008
79 to 95:0% per cap
growth 96 to 08:
3.2% per cap.
-0.50
-0.40
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
0.10
Average NRA for 1970/85 compared to 2000s
1970 to 85
200 to 2010
60
85
2000
Jan
2001
Jan
2002
Jan
2003
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
Inde
x de
flate
d by
US
GD
P de
flato
r160
Commodity Food and Beverage Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes Food and Beverage Price Indices
135
Commodity Agricultural Raw Materials Index, 2005 = 100, includes Timber, Cotton, Wool, Rubber, and Hides Price Indices
110
Abundant land!
Agriculture back on agendaMaputo Declaration 2003
CAADP ex
2003 AGRA
Regional Economic Integration
RECENT PERFORMANCE(A) REGIONAL & COUNTRY STATS
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
AFR
ICA
EA
ST
MID
DL
E NO
RT
H SO
UT
H
WE
ST
Avera
ge
An
nu
al G
row
th
Rate
, %
Africa, Growth Agricultural Production, 1990/11
Ag PIN
Ag PIN per cap
60
50
40
30
20
10
70
600
400
200
800
1,000
1,200
Incre
ase
, %
Av
Valu
e P
rod
n C
ult
ivate
d
Lan
d, U
S$/h
a, con
sta
nt
04/0
6 v
alu
e1990/922009/11
Increase, %
- -Africa
Eastern
Middle
Northern Southern
Western
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Incre
ase
seen
1990/9
2 t
o
2009/1
1, %
Valu
e p
er
EA
P A
g, In
t$
con
t 04/0
6Growth of agricultural labour
productivity, Africa, 1990/92 to 2009/11
1990/922009/11Change
- -Africa
Eastern
Middle
Northern Southern
Western
MICRO STUDIES
Returns good, Incomes rising …
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
3,000
3,500
Tef Wheat
Chickpeas
Lentils
Onion
Tomato
Green pepper
Lume, Gross Margin, US$/ha
Drivers of change oftenprivate & internal
Often initiative from SF & traders
Public — Gov’t & NGO — can help, but not always necessary
Stimulus often from domestic markets, not exportsDomestic marketing demands less stringent
CautiousCommercialisation•Small areas switched to
crops formarket•SF rarely sacrifice food
crops•SF intensify
• fertiliser, (sometimes) improved seed & agro- chemicals
• hired labour•Biggest Step? Irrigation
Gradual,
marginal
changes
Active Labour, Landmarkets …
•2010: 82 days•2012: 138 days
2010
2012
Lume: > 90%
households hired labour: days
annual household
:% households renting in land
13%45%
200340
US$ per hectare
But sticky Capital Mkts
•NOT: credit from Banks, advances from input dealers, traders or processors
Working K from
SF savings
•BUT may• slow process• limit degree• restrict which
households participate
Lack of credit not a
barrier
In sum:Progress, if not
dramatictransformation
POLICY: WHAT TO DO?
No secrets: consensusRural Investment Climate• Doesn’t have to be perfect!
[Rodrik]
Ghana ex 1983: Fast agri
growth Fast falling poverty
0
1
2
3
5
4
-3 .1% year
1961
/62
1962
/64
1964
/66
1966
/68
1968
/70
1970
/72
1972
/74
1974
/76
1976
/78
1978
/80
1980
/82
1982
/84
1984
/86
1986
/88
1988
/90
1990
/92
1992
/94
1994
/96
1996
/98
1998
/00
2000
/02
2002
/04
2004
/06
2006
/08
Agric
ultu
re g
ross
pro
d: B
ill U
S$
2000
2.6 % year
5.1 % year
1974 1982
20
30
40
50
60
70
1991/1992
1998/1999
2006
Povert
y In
cidence
(%
)
Poverty, rural
Poverty, cocoa producers
30.3
17.3
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
35302520151050
Kca
l / d
ay
/
cap
Maln
utr
itio
n
Prevale
nce
(%
)
U5 Underweight (DHS)Food supply (kcal/capita/day) (kcal)
Consensus• Bullet slide 22RputrVael rPduabnlaic
Goods
•Roads, power, irrigation, etc.
•Education, Health, Water
•Research & Extension
36
Big ChallengeFailings in rural markets:
solutions?
State intervention?
e.g. Fert Sub
InstitutionalInnovation e.g.Contracts, Co-
ops, etc.
37
Public direction: Malawi’s fert.subs
-
0.50
1.51.00
1.0
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.003.5
0.0
0.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
20
01
/20
02
20
02
/20
03
20
03
/20
04
20
04
/20
05
20
05
/20
06
20
06
/20
07
20
07
/20
08
20
08
/20
09 20
09
/20
10 20
11
/20
12
20
12
/20
13
Yie
ld,
ton
ne/h
a
Pro
du
cti
on
, M
to
nn
es
Marketing Years, May to April
ProductionYield t/ha
(Private) Subs
• One Acre Fund 130k SF Kenya, Rwanda Seed, Fert,
Insurance,Mktg
Lean admin
US$50 per SF?
Institutional innovation …… levering in private capital
•Contracting
Lower T-costs
•Underwriting ruralbanking
Reduce risk
•Patient capital, challengefunds
Initial learning,
high K costs
Conclusions (1)
Reality & perceptions on the
move …sense of proportion:
Asia’s great lesson for Africa
not always appreciated
Conclusions (2)
•Africa diverse: much to learn from
•Initiatives … not documented, still less evaluated
•Need library of workingmodels
Learning!
Conclusions (3)
• Progress being made
• Elephant traps avoided?
• Demand surging• Factor market
initiatives
• SF enterprise
Reasons for cautio
usoptimism
Africa’s greater challenge?
manufacturing & the urban economy