Brussels Development Briefing n.33

Drivers of success for agricultural transformation in Africa 2nd October 2013

http://brusselsbriefings.net

African agriculture in a changing global context: lessons learned.Steve Wiggins, ODI.

African agriculture in a changing global context: lessons learned

Steve WigginsOverseas Development Institute

HOW DISAPPOINTING IS AFRICA’S AGRICULTURAL RECORD?

Familiar graph:Food Production per cap, since 1960s

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Africa South America

Asia

Gro

ss P

rodu

ction

Per

Cap

Inde

x 19

61/6

3 =

100,

3 y

ear m

ovin

g av

.

Not so familiarAgricultural Output, Africa, since 1960s

19621964

19661968

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

2010 100

200

300

400

Africa, all Eastern

Middle Northern

Southern Western

Gros

s Pro

ducti

on, c

onst

ant p

rices

, 3YM

A, in

dexe

d to

19

61/6

3

Less familiarAgricultural Growth Rates

Africa Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa -

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00 Growth Rate, Year, 61/3 to 09/11Growth Rate, Year, 81/3 to 09/11

GHANA: WHAT CAN BE DONE

8

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

2.6 % year

5.1 % year1974 1982

3 .1% year

1991/1992 1998/1999 200620

30

40

50

60

70 Poverty, rural

Poverty, cocoa producers

Poverty, national

Pove

rty

Inci

denc

e (%

)

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Underweight, % U5s

Food Supply, kcal/cap/day

No secrets to agricultural development!

Rural Investment Climate• Doesn’t have to be perfect!

Rural Public Goods• Roads, power, irrigation, etc.• Education, Health, Water• Research & Extension

SE Asia: 3 preconditions for ↑growth& ↓povertyMalaysia ex 1958, Indonesia ex 1967, Vietnam ex 1986, Cambodia ex 1999 (?)

Macroeconomic stabilitylow inflation, currency overvaluation

Economic freedomfor farmers & entrepreneurs

Pro-poor public spendingon agriculture, public services, rural infrastructure

Source: Henley & van Donge 2012

SE Asia: yes & no

Coalitions for shared growth

Authoritarian ruleForeign aidElimination of corruption Liberalised financial systems Privatised utilities Indigenous bourgeoisieIndustrial policy