african thorpex status by aida diongue-niang senegal meteorological agency thorpex ar1 rapporteur...
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African THORPEX Status
By
Aida Diongue-Niang
Senegal Meteorological Agency
THORPEX AR1 Rapporteur
African THORPEX Regional Committee co-chair
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 1
ICSC-9
Relatively poor performance on modeling systems over Africa (particularly in Tropical Africa):
1.Misrepresentation of some key processes (NWP & Climate models )2.Poor observing network (+ transmission failure )
+ An important Gap in NWP model development and use in Africa
THORPEX-Africa: context and motivation
Impact on forecast and service delivery for societal and economic needs
THORPEX-Africa aims at contributing to : Improve forecasts and reduce the adverse effects of hydro-meteorological related natural disasters in Africa and Promote multidisciplinary collaboration between research, operations, applications and user communities through studies in line with societal and economical needs in Africa.
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DAOS1: Design of an
optimum network in Africa
DAOS2:Use of non
conventional observing systems
DAOS3: Improvement of
telecommunications facilities
PDP2: Contributing to the Development of Seamless forecast by filling the gap in
intraseasonnal timescales
PDP1: Predictive Skill of
high impact weather
SERA1: High-impact
weather database
SERA2: Forecast
verification and cost/benefit assessments
TIGGE
Predictability and
Dynamical Processes
Societal and Economic Research
Application
observing systems
3
HIWIS
3
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011
THORPEX-Africa Implementation, Plan, 2009
THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste
Sponsor (THORPEX Trust Fund, ICTP, GEO, RIPIECSA)
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Attended by :• Representatives of National Meteorological services
throughout the African continent (~20) and ACMAD• Representatives of major forecasting centres (ECMWF, NCEP,
UK Met Office METEO-France, DWD)• Research scientists (climate/meteorology, information
system, hydrology, socio-economic) from Africa, Europe and North America,
• Representatives of relevant programmes (AMMA, GEO, EUMETNET/GEONetCAst, JWGFR, SERA, THORPEX WG, MEDEX, WIS, SDS-WAS, UCAR Africa Initiative, etc)
THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste
Objectives
To have a better picture of HIW in Africa , their impact and the warning process used.
5ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011
To give a momentum to THORPEX-Africa planned activities regarding HIW Information system and predictability studies.
To identify tools and products available in/for African Met. Services for predicting HIW.
Pre-CAS-XV , Incheon , 17-18 November 2009 6
T
T
Tg
sS sSsS
Main High-impact WeatherIn AfricaFrom NHMS presentations
Dry spellsTropical cyclonesCyclogenesisFlooding and LandslidesStrong windsSand & Dust Episodes, Heat wavesFrost
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Tools for Predicting HIW /Assessing predictability
Hetegeneous level across the continent:
1. Use of few NWP global models products through EUMETCAST distribution
2. Use of more NWP products using also Internet for dedicated Web page and/or through Retim distribution
3. Additional diagnostics with regional/local models, research-developemnt activities, e.g. SAWS, Morroco, Algeria, Kenya Senegal
4. Systematic verification and feedback: only in few centres or in a framework pf projects (e.g. SWFDP)
5. Use of ensemble prediction: very rare, few countries mostly in Southern Africa with the SWFDP
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 7
Why A High-Impact Weather Predictability and Information System ?
The limitation of well documented cases of high impact events and data exchange within African sub-regions: a severe impediment to progress in reducing the adverse effects related to HIW
Need for a mechanism to collect and exchange high impact weather data facilitate processes/predictability studies, socio-economic research applications, forecast improvement and mitigation of detrimental effects of HIW. .Requirement to establish a database of key high-impact African weather events, consisting of observations, model outputs, event-documentation and associated predictability studies analyses, (evaluation, modelling) 8ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011
Approach for implementation
9
While seeking for funding start the work in parallel with a few selected case studies (on a sub-regional basis; north, west, central, east, southern Africa) with
data collection (both weather and impact data) to feed an interim information system
model assessment to predict high-impact weather on the other hand will be performed
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011
10
2009
2008
19972007?
20082009?
Representatives of Met Services proposed to work at sub-regional basis focussing first on flooding eventsbut also dust events & aerosols, dry spells, heat waves, marine hazards
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Coordi.West
Coordi.East& Centre
Coord. South
African RC
Coordi.North
Focal P. NMHS1
Focal P. NMHS2
Focal P. NMHSn
Case studies at regional level
OUAGADOUGOU
From Guillaume Nacoulma, Lamin Touray,
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September 2009 flooding in the Sahel
DAKAR ROSSO
13
01 September 2009 0600
Flash Flood in Burkina Faso, September 1st 2009
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 13
261mm in 10 hours. 2/3 of the annual mean
Flooding in Senegal
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 14
02 September 2009 2100
2 weeks of wet spell
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 17
SST Anomalies Third August decad (2009 vs Climatology)Pattern of enhancement of monsoon circulation at subseasonal timescale
2009 Anomalously Wet in Western WAM Region
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 18
AMO
Sutton and Hodson 2005
Link to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation?
East Africa Case (Heavy rainfall in October 1997)
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October 1997 rainfall for Ethiopia, Tanzania, Kenya
2 to 10 times the October mean!
From Babu (Ethiopia), Changa’a (Tanzania), Mwangi (kenya) and Morel (La Réunion)
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 20
LONGITUDE (Degree)
LA
TIT
UD
E (
De
gre
e)
OLR Average
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300October 1989-2008 (W/m²)
LONGITUDE (Degree)
LA
TIT
UD
E (
De
gre
e)
OLR Anomalies
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
(W/m²)
October 1997
Seasonal context of the East African EventBessafi (La Reunion)
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 21
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07-4
-2
0
2
4MEI
Clim
ate
ind
ex
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07-4
-2
0
2
4SOI
Clim
ate
ind
ex
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07-4
-2
0
2
4NAO
Year
Clim
ate
ind
ex
89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07-4
-2
0
2
4IOD
Year
Clim
ate
ind
ex
15°S-10°N/30°E-45°E15°S-10°N/30°E-45°E
15°S-10°N/30°E-45°E 15°S-10°N/30°E-45°E
a) b)
c) d)
Rainfall
HIW event in the context of 1997 EL Nino event and anomalies in the Indian Ocean
Climate indexesRainfall
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 22
two jets associated with strong positive PV anomalies. dynamical forcing over north tropical area
Vertical cross section zonal wind and PV anomalies
November 2008 flooding in South Africa
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 23
Heavy rainfall events in some parts of South Africa on the 11 and 12th November. death of 27 people in Western Cape province. Most provinces in the interior of South Africa experienced convective rainfallwith many lightning strokes recorded. The main weather events that caused this were cut off low, troughs, fronts and surface lows
(Ngwana, South Africa)
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 24
Flooding in November 2008 in South Algeria
190mm at Aïn Sefra, leading to flooding of the of the rivers El Beridj et Mouileh causing crossing the town of Aïn Sefra2 deaths, displaced people, closed roads, etc
Benrekta, Algeria)
Status of case studies • Progress has been slow in 2010-2011• Phase 1: i)synoptic analysis, ii)extremeness analysis,
iii)conceptual model still not completed• Problems of resources: human for animation; funding for
networking, training • Structural problems: poor operational environment, lack of
skill, limited human resources, poor interaction with universities
• Low involvement and commitment at higher level in NHMSs
TO FOLLOW-UP Invite THORPEX working groups, PDP, TIGGE to be involved in
African THORPEX case studies. Need of minimum of resources to enable people interacting
while seeking in parallel for more resources ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 25
Status of the interim database
• One Terabyte (1 TB) of disk space allocated by ICTP but there is the need to design the database and frame the associated metadata.
• ICTP can help build the database that can be transferred to another African centre. This will require a person dedicated for this purpose who can go and work at ICTP as a visitor for a specified period of time.
• To Follow-up and given minimum of resources• Inviting SERA to be involved in the database design
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 26
Way forward: Implementation activities
Linking THORPEX-Africa research to operations• Design a template on (HIW) events and encourage and
promote reporting of HIW close to near real-time and near real-time model verification if access to more products from global centres is enabled. Feedback to be provided.
• Customized TIGGE products for validation & application in Africa ? Working with the TIGGE WG and the SWFDPs in Southern Africa and with RSMCs in other regions?
Continue to seek for funding Training on NWP and ensembles forecasting and TIGGE
dataset.
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 27
Membership
• In the terms of reference of the regional committee , it was stated that, after 4 years (then December 2011), half of the members should step down and replaced by new members.
• The membership should be kept at ten or below.
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 28
Current Membership1. Ernest Afiesimama, Meteorological Agency, Nigeria, (JSC)
2. Amare Babu, National Meteorological Service, Ethiopia
3. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman, Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration (GIMPA) Accra, Ghana, (SERA)
4. Arona Diedhiou, Institute for Research and Development (IRD), France
5. Aida Diongue-Niang, Meteorological Agency, Senegal, co-chair
6. Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, African Centre of Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD), Niger
7. Joseph Katongo KANYANGA, Zambia Meteorological Department
8. Benjamin Lamptey, Regional Maritime University, Accra, Ghana, co-chair
9. Abdellah Mokssit, Meterological Office, Morocco
10. Zilore Mumba, African Centre of Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD), Niger to be replaced by his scuccessor at ACMAD
11. Isaac Ngwana, South African Weather Service
12. Franklin Opijah, University of Nairobi, Kenya
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 29
Meeting in Early 2012?
• Last formal regional committee meeting: July 2008• A Regional Committee (RC) meeting conjointly with small
workshop involving some RC members and others resource persons in January/February 2012.
• The RC meeting to present the status of THORPEX and way forward to members particularly the newly appointed ones and discuss the specific work assigned to each member of the RC.
• Small workshop to develop templates to be submitted to NHMSs indicating HIW for further study, to discuss and advance case studies, to develop programs to derive products (TIGGE, Deterministic global models).
ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 30