africa’s heavy haul rail overview and outlook
TRANSCRIPT
01/2012
Africa’s Heavy Haul Rail Overview and Outlook
Heavy Haul Rail Africa, Cape Town 6-7 November 2012
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Content
Africa’s railway networks
Africa’s heavy haul rail network
Factors influencing heavy haul developments
Heavy haul network: A global perspective
Questions
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Africa’s rail networks Overview • 80 000 route kilometres • 7% of world’s total • North, west and eastern
systems are mainly stand-alone with little inter-connectivity
• Almost full railway interconnectivity within the SADC area, subject to axle load limitations
• South African network in excess of 20 000 kilometres: – Heavy haul corridors – General freight corridors – Branch line network
Luanda
Lobito
Walvis Bay Maputo
Beira
Nacala
Durban
Cape Town Saldana
Richards Bay
Lagos
Douala
Mombasa
Port Sudan
Alexandria
Dar es Salaam
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Africa rail network size and traffic by region
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Route-km Passenger-km net ton-km
Perc
ent
Regional Share of Network Traffic (%)
Southern Africa Central Africa East Africa West Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Southern Africa Central Africa East Africa West Africa
rout
e-km
(tho
usan
ds)
Route-Kilometres in Operation
General Bulk HH
Commodities transported by rail
generally reflect the economic structure
of the specific country
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140
Southern Africa Central Africa East Africa West Africa net t
onne
-km
(bill
ions
)
Freight Transport
General Mineral
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Africa rail network: status quo • Basic inland connectivity serving
ports • Most networks operate with
original facilities, with little upgrading and in poor condition
• Most lines are low-speed, small-scale, undercapitalized networks with diverse, low axle loads
• Not suited to modern logistics requirements
• Limited expansion in last decades
• Interest only to explore Africa’s vast mineral resources
Investment is required to sustain and expand
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Content
Africa’s railway networks
Africa’s heavy haul rail network
Factors influencing heavy haul developments
Heavy haul networks: A global perspective
Questions
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Africa’s heavy haul rail networks Overview
• Less than 10% of a total 80 000km is heavy haul
• Heavy haul lines mainly in South Africa and some West and North African countries
South Africa
Guinea
Gabon
Egypt Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
Mauritania
Countries with heavy haul lines
Heavy haul defined as a combination of: • 25t/axle or greater and • 20 million gross tons per
annum or in excess of 5000 gross tons per train
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Africa’s heavy haul rail network South Africa’s network: current state Coal export line @ 26tal
connecting coalfields in Mpumalanga via Ermelo to Richards Bay (~600km)
Iron ore export line @ 30tal connecting the iron ore mines in the Northern Cape to Saldanha (860km)
Source: TFR
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Africa’s heavy haul rail network South Africa’s network: future state
Source: TFR
Coal export line @ 26tal
Iron ore export line @ 30tal
Mn ore export line @ 26tal connecting the iron ore mines in the Northern Cape to Ngqura (1060km)
Waterberg Coal corridor @ 26tal connecting coalfields in Waterberg to Eskom and eastern seaboard ports (~1200km)
Upgraded HH lines
Minerals corridor from Limpopo @ 26tal to eastern seaboard ports
Domestic Fe and Mn ore corridors @ 26tal
Swazilink line @ 26tal
More than 300% HH route growth over next 7 years!
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Africa’s heavy haul rail network Current and future planned projects (In various feasibility stages)
South Africa: Various Investments
Botswana/ Namibia: Trans Kalahari 2000km railway: mine to coast
Sierra Leone: Iron Ore developments 200km railway
Gabon: Iron Ore & Manganese Projects 500km+ railway
Guinea: Iron ore project 650km railway
Botswana/ Zimbabwe/ Mozambique: ‘Transwana’ 1600 km
Liberia: Iron Ore development 200km railway
Mauritania: SNIM/Sphere iron ore project expansion, 650km railway
Cameroon: Iron ore project 500km railway
Mozambique: Coal projects 1000+km railway
Republic of Congo: Iron ore project 500km railway
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Africa’s heavy haul rail
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160
Africa by rail South Africa by rail
Heavy haul in Africa
net t
onne
-km
(bill
ions
) Freight by rail
20%
80%
Rail vs Road Annual Volumes
Rail Road
250Mtpa
1000Mtpa
More than 60% of rail by HH, this will
grow by an estimated 200%
over next 5-7 years
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Africa’s heavy haul rail network Outlook after implementing current/future projects
• North Africa remains an island
• North-South Corridor emerging in line with PIDA
• Central Africa’s position? • Strong emphasis on
unlocking coal, minerals and metals transport systems
• Heavy haul operations provide competitive logistics costs
Countries with heavy haul lines (After future projects)
South Africa
Guinea
Gabon
Egypt
Tunisia Algeria Morocco
Mauritania
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Countries with heavy haul lines (After future projects)
South Africa
Guinea
Gabon
Egypt
Tunisia Algeria
Morocco
Mauritania
Africa’s heavy haul rail network Regional network development opportunities
EAC
IGAD
SADC
ECOWAS
TAH
ECCAS
International Corridor Traffic (million ton)
<5 5 - 50
>50
Regional networks with heavy haul potential
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•
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• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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•
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20 324km
2341km 1020km
3140km
2710km
2040km
474km
2781km
3968km
4800km
4763km
858km
3505km 1300km
1650km
806km
1893km
953km
2745km
1266km
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Rail infrastructure The gauge factor
• Gauge and axle loading are not interdependent
• SADC regional network will naturally develop into a Cape gauge network
• West Africa could transform into a standard gauge system
• North-south corridor: cost versus benefits of gauge conversion
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Content
Africa’s railway networks
Africa’s heavy haul rail network
Factors influencing heavy haul developments
Heavy haul networks: A global perspective
Questions
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Factors influencing heavy haul development Criteria
• Market imperative • Volume imperative • Standardisation imperative • Political imperative • Country stability • Global cost competitiveness • Ability to provide integrated network • Supporting country infrastructure • Access to capital/ investor support • Capacity to develop, support and operate • Sustainable development
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SADC’s mineral resources: the market imperative
Africa’s global share of mineral production versus global reserves reveals the potential opportunities for growth of the extractive industries, especially for mining iron ore, manganese, gold and aluminium.
Total Iron Ore seaborne supply by region
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Development of transport infrastructure Mining projects key driver
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M a l i N i g e r C h a d
B u r k i n a F a s o
C e n t r a l A f r i c a n R e p u b l i c
D e m o c r a t i c R e p u b l i c o f C o n g o
T a n z a n i a R w a n d a B u r u n d i
A n g o l a Z a m b i a
Z i m b a b w e N a m i b i a
B o t s w a n a S o u t h A f r i
c a S w a z i l a n d L e s o t h o
T u n i s i a A l g e r i a
M o r o c c o
B e n i n G h a n a T o g o I v o r y
C o a s t C o n g o G a b o n E q u a t o r i a l G u i n e a
N i g e r i a C a m e r o o n
L i b y a E g y p t M a u r i t a n i a
S u d a n E r i t r e a S e n e g a l
E t h i o p i a D j i b o u t i
G u i n e a
S o m a l i a K e n y a U g a n d a
• Projects in various planning phases
• Mining development linked to upgrade of transport infrastructure (rail and port)
• Funding: various private and institutional investors
• China and India involvement dominant
S i e r r a L e o n e
Concept Pre-feasibility Detailed Feasibility
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Africa heavy haul Global Landbridge?
Railways are more and more competing with
shipping lines
Saudi Landbridge
Eurasia Landbridge
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Factors influencing heavy haul development Infrastructure limitations
Luanda
Lobito
Walvis Bay Maputo
Beira
Nacala
Durban
Cape Town Saldana
Richards Bay
Lagos Douala
Mombasa
Port Sudan
Alexandria
Dar es Salaam Good Fair Poor
Luanda
Lobito
Walvis Bay Maputo
Beira
Nacala
Durban
Cape Town Saldana
Richards Bay
Lagos Douala
Mombasa
Port Sudan
Alexandria
Dar es Salaam 1067
1000
1435
Gauge Condition
Development of heavy haul networks will require drastic rehabilitation and upgrades of existing networks. In some
instances the development of new routes/ lines are recommended.
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Factors influencing heavy haul development Challenges and Interventions
• Geopolitics • Network disconnected • Lack of regional
integration • Low traffic-density/
volumes • Intermodal competition • Institutional
arrangements • Lack of investment/
finance • Infrastructure limitations
• AU regional integration • Financing/models • Africa heavy haul rail
master plan • Consultation with
stakeholders • Effective /efficient
regulations of rail operators/operations
• Institutional capacity to monitor performance of network
Challenges to expanding Africa’s network into HH
Interventions to expand Africa’s HH network
Expanding/Integration of Africa’s HH network
Volumes/PIDA Government Support
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Regional heavy haul development
• nn
Light axle loading
Low traffic volume
Mix general freight &
passenger
Upgraded HH
Technology overcome geometry
restrictions
Purpose built HH within
network constraints Axle loading, gradients and track gauge
Not industry std
Purpose built HH
Isolated lines Typically Std
gauge, traction optimisation & regeneration
benefits
Efficiency
Traffic mix Competing with road trucks
Potential for regional integration
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Content
Africa’s railway networks
Africa’s heavy haul rail network
Factors influencing heavy haul developments
Heavy haul network: A global perspective
Questions
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Heavy Haul expansion
1800’s : visions of transcontinental railways
Liberalisation of African nations
New world order emerging
Positive spirit of African Renaissance
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Where to from here?
Networkability Liberalisation
Globalisation
• Uni-gauge • Uni-profiles • Collaboration • Inter changeability
• Industrialisation of nations • Global market
development • Transformation of systems • Entrepreneurship
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Africa : heavy haul development Concluding remarks
• Rail is Africa’s competitive advantage • Heavy haul and standard gauge should be
considered for all new major expansions • Cost imperatives and rail technologies will drive
upgrading of existing strategic regional freight corridors to heavy haul
• Orchestrated planning and implementation required
• Africa is ready!
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01/2012
Content
Africa’s railway networks
Africa’s heavy haul rail network
Factors influencing heavy haul developments
Heavy haul networks: A global perspective
Questions