AFTER IRENE: JOSE, KATIA, LEE, MARIA, NATE, OPHELIA,

PHILIPPE---FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN

AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE 2011 SEASON?

AUGUST 28 - NOVEMBER 30, 2011

Dr. Walter Hays,

Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

2011 FORECAST

2011 FORECAST

LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SHIFTED AS THE SEASON PROGRESSED

• EARLY SEASON: Western Gulf of Mexico and the southern portion of the Caribbean [with USA impacts along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.]

• MID-TO-LATE SEASON: The eastern Gulf and Caribbean [with USA and Canadian impacts from the Florida Peninsula to the Carolinas, New England, and the Maratimes.]

IRENE: 2011’s NINTH STORM

A “BIG” and DISASTROUS STORM

1,0000 - 1330 km (600 - 700 mi) Wide

First Hurricane ( 950 mb)

$Tens of Billions in damage

AUGUST 21: TROPICAL STORM IRENE OVER PUERTO RICO BEFORE BECOMING HURRICANE

FRIDAY MORNING, AUG 26: EYE OF STORM EAST OF FLORIDA

IRENE’S LANDFALL RAIN MAP

AUG 26: PRE-LANDFALL FORECAST

AUG 27: FORECAST AFTER 7:30 AM LANDFALL IN OUTER BANKS, NC

AUG 28: FORECAST OF IRENE’S PATH

AUG 28: FORECAST OF IRENE’S WINDS

IRENE CONTRIBUTED TO RAINFALL ON EAST COAST: AUG 16-30

Loss estimates (still being tallied ) indicate that Irene will almost certainly rank

among the nation's costliest natural disasters.

Irene was blamed for at least 45 deaths in the

continental U.S., plus one in Puerto Rico and seven more in the Dominican Republic

and Haiti.

Irene caused power failures to 6.69 million

homes and businesses.

Experts warned that the flooding that followed Irene

could cause a surge of mold, which can, mean coughing

(e.g., “Katrina cough”), sneezing and wheezing for

those with allergies

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency has

registered more than 48,000 Hurricane Irene disaster survivors for individual

assistance as of Sept 5th.

2011’s TENTH STORM

TROPICAL STORM JOSE

FORMED LATE SUNDAY (AUGUST 28th NEAR BERMUDA

AUGUST 28: VIEW OF ATLANTIC BASIN FROM SPACE

AUG 28: TROPICAL STORM JOSE DRENCHES BERMUDA BEFORE DYING

2011’s ELEVENTH STORM

TROPICAL STORM KATIA

FORMED ON AUGUST 30th AND DEVELOPED INTO SECOND

HURRICANE OF SEASON ON AUG 31

AUG 31: KATIA BECAME A CAT 3 HURRICANE

THE QUESTIONIn view of what Hurricane

Irene did to the Eastern USA an Atlantic Canada, will

Katia make landfall in the USA? Where?

SEPTEMBER 1: KATIA BECAME A CAT 3 HURRICANE

SEPTEMBER 2: KATIA, ON LINE BETWEEN DAY AND NIGHT IN SOUTHERN ATLANTIC

SEPTEMBER 2Forecast models on Sept 2

indicated that Katia will likely be 1666 km (1,000 mi) east of

Miami by Tuesday, the day after Labor Day, with a

possible track towards Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

SEPT 3: KATIA LIKELY TO MISS EAST COAST

SEPT 4: STATUS OF KATIA

• Hurricane Katia could reach Category 3 status, with winds of 185 kph (111 mph) or more, by Monday afternoon (Sept 5), but with uncertainty about whether it will make landfall in the United States.

KATIA ON SEPT 5

SEPT 5: FORECAST FOR KATIA (A CAT 3 HURRICANE)

SEPT 7: KATIA (A CAT 1 HURRICANE) SW OF BERMUDA

SEPTEMBER 7:Wind and rain from Katia

could still affect USA’s East Coast as it moves northward and its remnant eventually affects Ireland and the UK.

SEPTEMBER 8:Hurricane Katia continued to

move north between Bermuda and North Carolina

and did not threaten land.

2011’s TWELFTH STORM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 SOON TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM LEE

FORMING IN GULF OF MEXICO ON SEPTEMBER 2

SEPTEMBER 2: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 BECAME TROPICAL STORM LEE

SEPTEMBER 2: FLORIDA BEING SANDWICHED BY LEE AND KATIA

SEPT 2: Lee is about 295 km (185mi) miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, heading north at 3 kph (2 mph);

the slow pace means that it could be a SUPER SOAKER

rainmaker BEFORE AND AFTER landfall on Sept 3.

SEPT 2: Almost half the oil production in the Gulf of

Mexico and a third of natural gas output in Lee’s

path were shut down.

SEPT 2: Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour

declared a state of emergency in several

counties expected to be hit with heavy rain of 25 - 50

cm (10-20 in) as Lee nears.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared states of

emergency in ten Louisiana parishes, and officials

urged voluntary evacuations in parts of Lafourche Parish and

Grand Isle.

SEPTEMBER 3: FORECAST FOR LEE

SEPT 3:LANDFALL FOR LEE

• The storm is expected to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast late Saturday and turn east toward New Orleans, where it will provide the biggest test of rebuilt levees since Hurricane Gustav struck on Labor Day 2008.

SEPT 3: LEE: A SUPER SOAKER IN POINT AUX CHENES, LA

SEPT 3: LEE: A SUPER SOAKER IN MANDAVILLE, LA

SEPT 3: LEE: MANDAVILLE, LA

SEPT 3: LEE: RAIN LADEN CLOUDS IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: WATER RISING IN LONDON AVE CANAL

SEPT 3: LEE: LONDON AVE CANAL IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: FLOODING NEAR LONDON AVE CANAL IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: A SUPER SOAKER IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: POT HOLE IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: WIND DAMAGE IN NEW ORLEANS

SEPT 3: LEE: DOWNED TREE IN NEW ORLEANS

The prospect of flooding in low-lying New Orleans evoked 2005’s memories of Hurricane

Katrina, which flooded 80 percent of the city, killed 1,500 people, and caused more than

$80 billion in damage.

SEPT 4: At 8 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center said Lee's center had come ashore

on the Louisiana coast about 80 km (50 mi) west of Lafayette, LA with maximum sustained winds

of 75 kph (45 mph) headed north at 5 kph (3 mph)

As Lee weakens in the coming days, the system is expected to unleash heavy

rains over a wide area of the central Gulf Coast and the

Tennessee Valley as it moves northeastward.

LEE (SOURCE: NASA’S AQUA SATELLITE)

SEPT 4: NEW ORLEANS escaped without a Katrina-

type, breached-levee, flooding disaster and no deaths, but the

city had some local flooding and tens of thousands were

without power.

SEPT 4: Since Thursday (Sept 1), parts of New Orleans had as much as 37 cm (15 in) of rain; 40 cm (16 in) in nearby

Gretna, and over 27 cm (11 in) in parts of St. Bernard and

Jefferson parishes.

SEPT 4: OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION RESUMED

• Exxon Mobile and Royal Dutch Shell returned workers to some oil and natural gas platforms as Tropical Storm Lee moved out of the Gulf of Mexico, drenching LA, MS, and AL as it accelerated to the east-northeast.

SEPT 5: FLOODING IN BIRMINGHAM, AL

SEPT 5: FLOODING IN BIRMINGHAM, AL

SEPT 5: A RESCUE IN FLOODED BIRMINGHAM, AL

2011’s THIRTEENTH STORM

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WHICH WAS FORMING IN THE ATLANTIC ON

SEPTEMBER 3rd

BECAME TROPICAL STORM MARIA ON SEPTEMBER 7th

SEPTEMBER 3: HURRICANE KATIA, TROPICAL STORM LEE, AND PROBABLE

TROPICAL STORM MARIA

SEPTEMBER 7: TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORMS AND STARTS PATH