AGAINST THE APOCALYPSE: A Theoretical Scenario Planning For a Zombie Epidemic in the Philippines

A Seminar Paper submitted in partial fulfilment of Political Science 198

University of the Philippines Manila

Alen Auric S. SantosResearcher

Clarinda L. BerjaResearch Adviser

March 2014

Abstract

Have you ever wondered why, in most cases, humanity fails to respond correctly during a

zombie pandemic in films? The scenario is almost always portrayed as a total collapse of the system

without any semblance of government. Now imagine if the zombie pandemic scenario actually

happened in the real world. How would the government react? Would the responses be effective or

would it ultimately end like in the movies? Whether the results would be good or bad, this scenario

would undoubtedly be one of the worst case scenarios - a disaster of absolutely epic proportions.

The study aims to identify and evaluate government responses to a zombie pandemic – a

perfect example of large scale health emergency. The study uses secondary sources to create a zombie

pandemic scenario which is the most plausible among those portrayed in pop culture. A basic model for

scenario planning is then applied to the primary responding government agencies which are the Bureau

of Quarantine and the Health Emergency Management Staff of the Department of Health. The plans are

then subjected to response reliability measures wherein failure modes are identified and analysed with

respect to our scenario.

The method revealed that the government agencies treat a zombie epidemic as another highly

communicable disease. This suggests that there current mechanisms are enough to mitigate the

damages that the disease would bring. However, the failure modes identified for the scenarios are likely

to happen in a zombie epidemic. This would imply that the current mechanisms, while decent, are not

enough and needs improvement. The method also exposes several problems in the current system that

hinders the effective execution of the mechanisms that are in place. Among these problems are the

structural limitations of the agencies, lack of budget for proper training and the tendency for political

grandstanding by politicians.

The data gathered suggests that the Philippines is not ready for a zombie pandemic, and

probably, so is the rest of the world. However, there are issues in the system that must be addressed;

thus policy recommendations are made. Zombies or no zombies, fixing the rough edges of the system

before the disaster happens is substantially better than making up for the damages caused by the same

problems in the first place.

Introduction

There are many types of disasters, natural or man-made, that may occur and often times, they

are unpredictable and dangerous. This fact should be in the calculation and expectation of the

government in planning for their responses. However, among these disasters, health related

emergencies are often under prioritized in planning as such events seldom happen. Though in an

economical perspective, it is a logical move as natural disasters especially typhoons are more prevalent

in the country. The study is under the assumption that government resources are limited. Using that

assumption, it is only logical to hypothesize that as the government focuses on natural disasters

responses to health related disasters would be underdeveloped.

In response to this, the study aims to identify and evaluate government responses to a large

scale health emergency. In order to provide a more dynamic study, the health emergency chosen for

this scenario planning is a zombie apocalypse scenario as portrayed by popular culture. A zombie

pandemic scenario is chosen for the following reasons: Firstly, it is something that the world knows

about, but has never experienced before; therefore it makes it a suitable representative for future

outbreaks of unknown diseases. Secondly, such a scenario would invoke a more dynamic approach in

responses, not only in the Department of Health, but in the government as a whole. Thirdly, the

projected magnitude of such an event would classify it to be a worst-case scenario, therefore would be

greatly instrumental in testing current government institutions, policies, and responses.

There is no perfect system and the same could be said in government disaster response. It is

vital to identify the problems that might be encountered during such events and devise plans to counter

said problems. The government has two options with regard to health emergency measures. Firstly, the

government retains the current measures. This would ensure resources would be allocated to other

avenues. Secondly, the government improves the measures. This, of course, would come at the cost of

reallocating resources.

Research Questions

This study aims to measure readiness for a zombie pandemic in a bureaucratic level. The

assumption is that between the two paths that the government might take regarding health emergency

measures, it would take the more passive approach which is to retain the current mechanisms. The

study asks four fundamental questions:

1. How do we define and operationalize a Zombie pandemic?

2. What are the current measures that the government can do in the event of a zombie

apocalypse?

3. Are these measures reliable and effective?

4. What are the issues and problems that hinder effective response?

Significance of the Study

The study identifies and evaluates response procedures with regards to health emergencies.

This would enlighten the readers regarding the measures that the government takes. The study also

recognizes other problems that the agencies face. The study would yield significant data for the

improvement of responses and services by the government.

The recent Yolanda typhoon incident in Tacloban provided a window to see how devastating the

effects of slow and disorderly responses are. Though, government measures are in place, execution was

on a whole new playing field. The Tacloban incident was at the scope of a city. Imagine if the same is for

multiple regions. One can only imagine the level of devastation that it would cause, at the same time the

paralysis of the mechanisms established by the government. The researcher believes that answering the

question of how the government would react on a worst-case scenario is very relevant to the issues

regarding the country’s disaster management.

Limitations of the Study

The study uses a relatively new framework of theoretical scenario planning. By itself, the study

has the following limitations:

The scenario and responses discussed here are all theoretical; there is no guarantee that the

mechanisms identified would go according to plan.

Theoretical Scenario planning, by nature, is “assumption-heavy”. All actions and reactions are

based on intelligent assumptions.

The study focuses on the primary agencies that would be involved in the scenario. Other factors

such as population resiliency and interaction with other organizations are not tackled

The research is a qualitative study. There are no exact measurements of the factors and

dynamics that are identified.

Review of Related Literature

The zombie is surely one of the most recognized creatures in popular culture. They are generally

described as the dead that came back to life and craves human flesh and brains. Historically, the zombie

was not the flesh eating corpses that we know of today. According to the documentary Zombies: A

Living History, there are several cultures around the world which describes a zombie-like creature.

Although the origins and purposes of the creatures are different, they had two things in common: they

are undead and they are dangerous to humans. This only shows that since the beginning of civilizations,

the undead was a concern for humans.

The question now remains: why is a zombie, a zombie? Dr. Steven Schlozman of the Harvard

Medical School wrote several books on the topic of zombies and has had made a name for himself as

“Dr. Zombie”. In his book, The Zombie Autopsies: Secret Notebooks from the Apocalypse, he gave a very

detailed definition of what he believes the zombie would be like, using a medical perspective.

The first thing Schlozman took note of is how these creatures moved. "The first thing you would

notice is a shuffling gait, difficulty walking well, difficulty with balance, difficulty with knowing where

your body is in space. Those problems would be rooted in the cerebellum, a region at the bottom of the

brain responsible for motor skills and coordination.” (Schlozman, 2011) This would imply that real life

zombies would most likely be slow and uncoordinated.

The next symptom that Schlozman tackled is the zombie’s infamous trait of relentlessness.

"You'd also notice they're not very bright, They don't seem to know what they're doing. Those

symptoms would indicate some damage or abnormality in the frontal lobe, which also controls

impulsivity. You've never seen a hesitant zombie." (Schlozman, 2011)

Schlozman also tried to explain the zombies aggressiveness. He came up with two hypotheses:

“The undead are not only dumb and impulsive, but also angry, which could be a sign of overexcited

amygdalae, the pair of almond-shaped regions of gray matter deep inside the brain. But maybe zombies

are angry because they simply can't get enough to eat.” (Schlozman, 2011)

Schlozman claims that the zombies’ hunger is the most complicated symptom to explain from a

clinical standpoint. “The idea of being insatiably hungry and ill — that's a hard one to pull off, but you

can do it. There are certain viruses and also certain lesions that can affect a region of the brain — the

ventromedial hypothalamus — that affect satiety, and that affects the sense that you've eaten enough."

(Schlozman, 2011)

Schlozman also acknowledges the fact that zombies are the least of our problems during a

zombie apocalypse. He notes that the lack of cooperation is the greatest issue that needs to be

conquered first. He even used zombie movies to solidify his point. “Zombie movies would be much less

exciting if they were just about the lumbering, flesh-eating corpses. That would be like a story about

snails. They just would bump into each other, and it would be boring. A good zombie movie with a

happy ending tends to have humans overcoming their petty differences and banding together to quell

the unstoppable tide of the undead. In the real world, those Hollywood-style dramas often play out on

the international stage.” (Schlozman, 2011) Schlozman cited the 2003 outbreak of SARS which infected

about 8,000 people worldwide, and took the lives of about 800. The claimed that the main difficulty was

that China, the origin of the virus, did not cooperate, thus delaying treatment. He also noted that by the

time the H1N1 flu virus caused a swine flu outbreak in 2009, international cooperation was smoother.

China, learning its lesson from 2003, was much more cooperative with the World Health Organization.

This lesson is and would be vital if ever a zombie pandemic appears according to Schlozman.

How fast exactly does a zombie plague spread? The question is answered by four Canadian

mathematicians by the persons of Philip Munz, Ioan Hudea, Joe Imad and Robert Smith. In their paper,

entitled When Zombies Attack!: Mathematical Modelling of an Outbreak of Zombie Infection, they

calculated the spread of the infection, along with the mathematical implications of possible actions

against the pandemic. The outbreak model is based on the idea that zombies reproduce by killing

humans. Zombies, however, do not affect other zombies or the people who died of natural, non-zombie

related causes. Therefore, in theory, as long as there are humans and they are left vulnerable to at least

one zombie, then the outbreak continues. The model suggests that if humans and zombies coexisted,

without any other variables like defensive measures, then it would lead to the annihilation of the human

race. Figures show that a single zombie can reproduce to numbers as high as 500,000 in a week if left

unchecked. “In the basic model outbreak scenario, susceptible (humans) are quickly eradicated and

zombies take over.” (Hudea et. al., 2009) Hudea et. al. also considered the more realistic and popular

belief that there is a latency period between infection and zombiefication. The findings are almost the

same. The human race would still be annihilated, but it would take twice as long.

The interesting models in the study are the “solution” models. Hudea et. al. described three

possible scenarios: quarantine, treatment and eradication. Surprisingly, the three have very different

outcomes. Quarantine measures, in theory, would yield a result of extinction of the humans in the

quarantine, however the protected areas would be safer. However, Hudea et. al. considered that the a

real life quarantine would be nearly impossible to do in practice, hence a new calculation with new

findings. The practical quarantine would delay the outbreak but ultimately, humans would be

annihilated.

The model with treatment came with the assumptions that 1. It would be in the middle of the

pandemic that a cure would be developed, 2. The cure would return zombies to their original human

state and 3. Treated zombies would not be immuned to rezombification. According to this model,

human and zombies would co-exist with a crucial balance brought by the cure. Humans would continue

to exist in the long run, but only a fraction of their original number.

The extermination model was the most interesting proposal made by Hudea et. al. According to

this model, if humans would exterminate zombies at a steadily increasing rate (under the assumption

that each skirmish would be successful), then zombies would be eradicated within 10 days. This

according to the models is the best course of action to stop a zombie apocalypse.

The next question to be asked is: how exactly would governments react in the event of a zombie

apocalypse? This is answered by Daniel Drezner, a Professor of International Politics. In his book,

Theories of International Politics and Zombies, he explains that different theories in international

relations would yield different solutions to the problem. Drezner conceptualized this topic because: "In

the event of a zombie plague, the existing zombie canon is conspicuously silent on international

relations and foreign policy implications, despite it being common sense that such an occurrence would

warrant massive governmental intervention.” (Drezner,2011) Drezner also is amused that the social

sciences have not yet conducted studies on the possibility of a zombie apocalypse, but have made

studies about UFO’s. He explains that the concept of a zombie is as much as a threat to humans as the

theoretical aggressive extra-terrestrials.

Drezner explains that, in the international level, government responses are critically limited by a

zombie apocalypse. Diplomacy would be useless as an option. Obviously there is no use negotiating with

the undead. Nuclear deterrence, a fundamental theory of international relations since the beginning of

the Cold War, would also be futile during a zombie outbreak. Drezner (2011) explains that “Nuclear

deterrence relies on fear of overwhelming, devastating retaliation to prevent or reduce the likelihood of

conflict. But zombies don’t know fear.” Drezner also shows humorous logic and common sense as

shown by his hypothesis: “If any government was so foolhardy as to launch a first strike, it would create

the only thing worse than an army of the living dead: a mutant, radioactive army of the living dead.”

(Drezner, 2011)

Drezner’s (2011) view on Domestic Politics and Bureaucratic Politics, suggests the likelihood of

“rally round the flag” effect in the wake of a zombie apocalypse. Just like a Martial Law declaration,

there would be a strengthening of executive authority to confront the imminent threat. This event

would most likely lead to the breakdown of the balance of powers of the branches of government.

Drezner (2011) also discusses how politicized staffing of institutions (resulting from electoral

considerations) could hinder governmental response to zombie crises. Elected officials are not

particularly competent in handling such specific scenarios. If the head of a particular government unit is

powerless in a scenario, the rest of the system would fall with him. This reminds us of the recent

Yolanda incident in the Visayas region wherein politicians were baffled on what to do during the

incident. Thus bureaucratic politics would and should be taken into special consideration in this study -

as Drezner claims: “If both domestic political pressures and bureaucratic politics play a role in affecting

government policies, their combined effect could be disastrous.”

The topic of zombies aside, how exactly should the world handle pandemics? The World Health

Organization substantiates that preparedness for pandemics is vital in order to reduce the transmission

rate, minimize the number of cases and deaths, and to reduce the social and economic impact of an

epidemic. Though most preparedness plans are for Influenza cases, the World Health Organization

(WHO) argues that pandemics in general have a huge impact in society caused by the globalization

movement. The WHO cited the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) case in 2003, which caused

panic around the world. The WHO noted that the economic losses and social interruptions were far out

of proportion to the number of cases and deaths.

The WHO made a checklist for member states to help them prepare for possible epidemics;

though the list is primarily for influenza outbreaks. However, the WHO acknowledges the peripheral

nature of a “one-size-fit-all” approach and encourages the member states to formulate their own

preparedness plan. In fact, the WHO promotes the idea of a multisectoral approach. A multisectoral

approach means the involvement of the various levels of government along with various experts in

different fields, medical personnel, and the local community itself. The WHO also acknowledges the

difficulty of actually implementing a comprehensive preparedness plan. The scenario that a country

would be fully prepared is “unrealistic, unless the country has a small population with a centralized

government and stable bureaucracy” (WHO,2005). There is also the problem of resource allocation.

Some of the countermeasures for pandemics would require considerable investment from the state.

This is essentially a problem for most states wherein the resources are generally allocated to more

concrete projects and debt servicing. The WHO also considered the timeframe for the pandemic plan.

They claim that it would take weeks and even months to fully deploy a detailed and comprehensive

pandemic plan.

Measuring disaster preparedness is never easy. There are several models to use such as Gillespie

and Streeter’s (1987) quantitative model used to measure preparedness through various indicators. On

the other hand, Jackson (2008) stresses the issue on quantitatively measuring disaster preparedness. He

claims that the main flaw of a quantitative measure is the lack of measure of its actual effectiveness.

Jackson (2008) argues that a quantitative measure provides the inputs for a disaster response; however

this does not equate to outcomes. A quantitative measure alone does not answer the fundamental

question of policy makers: “How certain should we be that the systems we have can respond to the

damaging effects when called upon?” Jackson (2008) advocates the use of qualitative methods to

support the initial data; hence the concept of Response Reliability Assessment. Assessing response

reliability requires determining what might go wrong and anticipating the impact it might have on the

operation (Mayer, 2005 as cited in Jackson, 2008).

Theoretical Framework

Scenario planning is a strategic development tool used to make dynamic long-term plans. It is a

method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and

important driving forces affecting the system.

Scenarios provide alternative outlooks of the future. They identify significant events, key actors

and their motivations, and they convey how the system functions. Creating scenarios can help us

explore what the future might look like and determine the likely changes we should do to optimize living

in it.

“The thought processes involved in getting to the scenarios have the dual purpose of increasing

knowledge of the environment in which you operate and widening the participant’s perception

of possible future events – encouraging them to ‘think the unthinkable’. For each of these

worlds, appropriate action plans can be considered. Asking the key question, ‘what do we need

to do (now) to be ready for all scenarios?’, can then inform the formulation of strategies to cope

with these differing pictures of the future (or at least to address the maximum number of

possibilities).” (Bellis et. al, 2008)

Creating scenarios do require a bit of creativity. “Scenario creation can involve participants using

a mix of storytelling, visualization and enactment techniques. By fully engaging in the process and, to

some extent, living it participants can really begin to understand the consequences of a scenario.” (Bellis

et. al, 2008) Scenarios should have purpose; therefore they must have an element of plausibility in

them. Bellis et. al (2008) suggest that some level of ‘discomfort’ with the scenario is reasonable as they

“can be a development and projection of smaller issues and challenges that occur in the present day.”

In this case, scenarios can help to detect and anticipate the system’s potential shortcomings in

terms of flexibility and ability to react to developments and challenges. Scenario Planning can be used to

consider potential issues and situations in a context that provides the luxury of careful thought and

iterative planning rather than ‘firefighting’ at the point at which a weakness unexpectedly makes itself

known.

Older methods for strategy development assume that organizations would play a great part in

defining its environment. Older models assume organizations can mould the future of the system they

are in. Scenario planning however assumes that change in the system in inevitable. The future can differ

greatly from what the organizations have planned for. The scenario planning framework dictates that

organizations should adapt with these changing circumstances.

The scenario planning method is based on “creating a series of ‘different futures’ generated

from a combination of known factors, such as demographics, with plausible alternative political,

economic, social, technical, legal and environmental (PESTLE) trends which are key driving forces.”

(Bellis et. al, 2008) The goal is to craft different events by analyzing these driving forces. The technique

poses several short comings which include anticipatory thinking elements that are difficult to formalize.

This is due to factors such as subjective interpretations of facts, shifts in values, new regulations or

inventions.

It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper

understanding of central issues important to the future of the organization. Although the method is

most widely used as a strategic management tool, it can also be used for enabling other types of group

discussion about a common future.

Research Design

There are several ways of scenario planning. However, according to Slaugter (2004) organization

leaders tend to focus on the empirical aspect of scenario planning. This creates a lack of structure

approach in dealing with social realities at the system. In dealing with such a perspective, this study uses

a qualitative approach on scenario planning. The study would use Conway’s (n.d.) 5 stage model for

scenario planning to provide a general gist of the Zombie Pandemic Scenario. Conway (n.d.) argues that

her model incorporates all the basic components of scenario planning but acknowledges that variations

depend on the organization leader’s approach to the problem. Conway (n.d.) names the 5 stages as

Orientation, Exploration, Synthesis, Action and Evaluation.

Orientation is the determination of a focal issue, event or decision wherein the process is

anchored to. This stage pertains to the disaster preparedness standpoint wherein the agencies would

act. By default, this refers to the issue of Zombie Pandemic which is the focus of this study.

Orientation Exploration Synthesis

Evaluation Action

Basic Scenario Planning Model

The Exploration stage is the identification and analysis of the unknowns and pre-set conditions

around the system. The elements here are identified as critical uncertainties and predetermined

elements. These elements would be held in great consideration in the latter stages of the process.

Synthesis, as the name suggests, is the building of the scenario itself. This study uses an

inductive process of scenario planning which according to Davis (2002), is the exploration of drivers,

processes and trends within the system. The study would focus on two aspects of a zombie pandemic

which are Quarantine and Management.

The Action stage focuses on the identification of robust action and the creation of potential

strategic options in response to the synthesized scenario. This study uses key informant interviews on

experts on health emergency management to create viable scenario patterns.

The Evaluation stage is the process of determining if the Action taken is approaching the

intended goal. This stage is often neglected as it takes a considerable amount of time and resources to

implement. This part of the study uses the framework of Faith, Jackson and Willis (2010) in their work

Evaluating the Reliability of Emergency Response Systems for Large-Scale Incident Operations. The idea

is to identify and failure modes. Failure modes are incidents during the response mechanisms which

would cause a component to fail. If a component fails then the entire system is jeopardized.

Identification of these failure modes would give actors the opportunity to prevent these incidents by

providing additional input in their scenario plans. The Response Reliability concept is a qualitative model

which would peek into the aspects that cannot be measured in the system.

Data for the orientation, exploration and synthesis stage would be obtained from the analysis of

secondary data sources. The data for the action stage would be obtained through key informant

interviews with experts of the field. The evaluation stage is fairly difficult as response reliability

measures are non-existent for our scenario. Jackson (2008) argues that an alternative could be the

assessment of probability failure modes. The fact that our scenario does not have real world data still

remains. Jackson’s (2008) alternative is simply the “estimation solicited from the experts in the field.”

Data Collection

Orientation Stage

The idea of a Zombie Apocalypse is probably one of the most well-known concepts in the world.

Popular culture portrays the scenario as a world where humanity is in the brink of extinction. More

often than not, government responses in those works fail. This then causes societal collapse and the

eventual doomsday scenario. The setting of this study is at the stage wherein the outbreak is just

starting. This is the vital stage where government responses have maximum effectiveness.

Theoretically, this window of opportunity lies between the 1st day up to the second week.

According to the mathematical projections made by Hudea et. al. (2009) a zombie epidemic would reach

an uncontrollable level after two weeks – reaching as much as 500,000 infected by that time.

The study would focus on the two primary responders to such an event which are the Bureau of

Quarantine and Health Emergency Management Staff of the Department of Health.

Exploration Stage

There are many unknowns in a zombie pandemic scenario. The most basic unknown is

what exactly is the zombie pathogen? The questions like how does it spread? What are its properties?

How do zombies act? What is the cause? These factors among others are vital information that would

greatly benefit any response made by the health department. Unfortunately there is no definite answer

for these questions. The primary reason is that the scenario or something similar has never really

happened yet. In order to address this concern, the study turns to popular culture and various works

regarding the subject.

The first and most basic question if Zombies can really exist is answered by Scholzman (2011), a

medical doctor who took time to analyse the zombie tenet in a medical perspective, by saying YES, it can

happen. However, the possibility is highly improbable. Now that the probability of an actual zombie

pandemic is clear, next question is what exactly would be their characteristics? Scholzman (2011), a

medical doctor from Harvard, explains zombie behaviour by looking at their symptoms – and by doing so

creates the most accurate description that is closest to the most realistic scenario. The table below

summarizes Scholzman’s analysis of the Zombie tenet.

Can Zombies Exist? What Characteristics would they possess? Possible Origin Initial Outbreak

YES

Slow and uncoordinated, but capable of speed burst

Relentless and impulsive

Angry and Aggressive

Hungry Incapable of logical

thought Capable of

recalling memories

Magic and Demonic Summoning [Rejected]

Domestic

Contaminants (Radiation, Weapons etc)

International

Biological (Viruses and Bacteria)

Parasites [Rejected]

Aliens [Rejected]

Table of Zombie Characteristics and Details

The next big question is about the origin of the outbreak. Unfortunately, there would be no

definite answers here. The study turns to pop culture theory to provide general ideas on the origins of

the outbreak. The study From Voodoo to Viruses: The Evloution of the Zombie in Twentieth Century

Popular Culture by Twohy (2008) provides us a detailed report on how the Zombie tenet diversified

through the years. The study states that first use of the word zombie is in Haiti where medicine men

known as Voodoo witchdoctors reanimate a corpse to serve as a worker. They are generally harmless

and far from the zombie we know today. The study states that the first major zombie concept in popular

culture was made by George Romero in his movie Night of the Living Dead in 1968. Romero’s films

indicate that a space probe returning from Venus crashes into earth. The said probe carries space

radiation which then contaminates the planet. This radiation presumably causes mutation and

reanimates the dead. (Twohy, 2008) Romero’s film gives birth to the radiation class zombie.

The trend then shifted to more of a viral agent. Films like Resident Evil (2002) and 28 Days Later

(2002) are great examples of this type of origin. The usual trend for this type of origin is that the virus is

man-made and human error is the cause of the outbreak. There are also films of questionable plots

which include demonic possessions and alien invasions which would not be considered in this paper for

obvious reasons.

As for the location of the initial outbreak, the study categorizes two possible scenarios:

International and domestic outbreaks.

Another aspect of a potential zombie apocalypse is the mode of transmission of whatever is

causing it. This aspect of an outbreak would dictate the pace that responders would have to act within

the system. Twohy (2008) identifies three notable modes of transmissions that are prominent in pop

culture. The first mode of transmission is the classic “all corpses turn into zombies” tenet. This is best

represented by the series The Walking Dead (2010) wherein the characters discovered that their

comrades turn into the undead even without getting bit by them.

Notable Zombie Concepts

Description As Seen in

Set-up 1All corpses turn to zombies regardless of Cause of Death

Night of the Living Dead (1968), The Walking Dead (2010)

Set-up 2Bites instantly kill a victim and reanimates the corpse

Resident Evil (2002), World War Z (2013)

Set-up 3

Bites causes complications (coma, fever and/or other symptoms) then kills the victim and reanimates the corpse

REC (2007), Dawn of the Dead (2004)

Set-up 4Bites do not kill the victim but causes excessive aggression

28 Days Later (2002)

Summary of Twohy’s (2008) Analysis on Zombies in Popular Culture.

The second set-up is probably the most prominent concept in zombie lore. The second set-up is

the one where getting bitten would kill you within seconds and reanimate your corpse. This set-up is

best represented by the recent World War Z (2013). The third set-up is similar to the second in the

aspect that the contagion is transmitted through bites. The vital difference is that there is a buffer zone

wherein the disease does not kick in. This is represented by Dawn of the Dead (2004) wherein people

who were bitten in non-fatal areas survived for additional days continually getting worse. Ultimately

they succumb to the disease and turn into zombies. Scholzman (2009) also believes that this is likely the

type of transmission if ever an outbreak does occur. The fourth and final set-up is relatively new when

compared to its predecessors. This set-up actually does not kill the victims. As seen in 28 Days Later, the

zombies are not undead. They are just frenzied, animalistic people caused by a virus. Another notable

difference in this tenet is that the zombies do not eat their victims. The previous zombie concepts

propagate that zombies’ first instinct is to eat. The undead eats their victims at the same time

transforming them into their kind – with of course some exemption such as World War Z (2009). This

makes for a dilemma wherein zombies unknowingly choose between feeding and reproducing whenever

they victimize another. The fourth set up depicts zombies do not feed but only reproduce through

infecting others.

One aspect that would greatly benefit the study is the exploration of the political system in

which the actors operate. With respect to disaster preparedness and emergency response, the

Philippines has a negative image that Bankoff (2004) has dubbed as a “culture of disasters”. Bankoff

(2004)assumes that for Western cultures natural hazards and their consequences are ‘abnormal’

situations, since they inhabit less hazard-prone zones of the world. Whereas for the societies like that of

Philippine or of other developing countries, natural hazards and disasters are accepted as ‘normal’

aspects of daily life to which they have to adapt. Bankoff (2004) argues that this creates “cultural

manifestations” which compromise mechanism within the society. One particular aspect that Bankoff

(2004) discussed is the Philippines’ vulnerability to mass hysteria during times of disasters. He also

highlights the theory that since the Filipinos are so used to disasters they developed a fatalistic attitude

towards it. Filipinos tend to believe that all these are the natural “fated” course of life which would

explain the difficulty of some disaster mitigation prospects like relocation.

Synthesis Stage

Scenario Planning Synthesis of this study utilizes an inductive structure which indicates that the

contingency would be panned according to the number of possible scenarios based on the Exploration

stage. The importance of having such a structure is that the actors would act according to the scenario

that would develop. This would create for a versatile plan in case the event happens. The possible

scenarios are as follows:

The flowchart provides a simple structure to follow to create a pandemic plan. The concept is

simple, each partition represents an unknown variable of the event discussed in the exploration stage. A

scenario would be selected by choosing one possible option in each category. The process starts upon

the recognition of a zombie-like disease. This is by default the only option. The next step is identifying

the location of the initial outbreak. There are two options in this stage: domestic and international. The

next step is identifying what kind of zombies the world is dealing with (for reference the table is at the

exploration stage). The chart provides a total of 16 different scenarios.

Action Stage

Bureau of Quarantine

The Bureau of Quarantine’s basic mandate is to “provide maximum security against the

introduction and spread of infectious diseases from foreign countries.” (Oba, 2014) The agency

particularly looks out for ERID’s (Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases) and PHEIC’s (Public

Health Emergencies of International Concern) – both of which are defined by the WHO. The bureau

endeavours to do its mandate with minimal interference to travel and trade. Dir. Oba reiterates the

importance of this concept by describing the the effects of the AH1N1 scare in 2009 on the Aviation

Industry:

“Sino ang naapektuhan ng malaki? Aviation. Kasi nga flat world na tayo, ang exchange of everything is a matter of hours. Hindi ko alam ang exact figures pero aabot ng 50% ang bagsak. The best talaga ang border closure. Kaso ang border closure kahit nga selective, malaki ang dagok sa ekonomiya. Let’s say papapasukin ko lang ang oil, rice at kung papasok yun i-quaquarantine muna depending on the disease. After noon wala na. Kapag nangyari yun, ang aviation industry magbibilang muna ng poste. Marahil may makakain nga, may kuryente, may maiinom sa ganitong sitwasyon, the rest naman walang trabaho. Hindi naman pupwede iyon. So ang panukala ngayon ay i-highten ang surveillance measures at rapidly contain. Tuloy ang trabaho, tuloy ang negosiyo, Kapag may nakita tsaka i-contain. Til now, after noong pandemic ng h1n1, yaan ang kalakaran.” (Oba, 2014)

Quarantine measures in the Philippines are actually one of the most advanced in the region. This

is due to the fact that the entire process has an implementing legislation. RA 9271 or the Quarantine act

of 2004, mandates that all the measures taken by the agency would be supported. The fact that there is

a strong foundation for quarantine procedures in the country, it attracted foreign organizations in

creating pilot plans in the country.

“Since mayroon tayong policy which is RA 9271 (Quarantine Act of 2004), madali lang gawin ang mga measures dahil may batas na nag-gogovern. Nung nakita nilang meron tayong polisiya, kasi yung ibang bansa wala, dito nila ginawa yung template at dito pinilot yung public health contingency plan which is yung gumawa, ako.” (Oba, 2014)

These templates were instrumental in protecting the country against SARS in 2004 and Ah1n1 in

2009. These two diseases, however provided the start of a paradigm shift that focused on the aviation

aspect of travel. Dir. Oba explains that the paradigm shift is necessary as technology progresses:

“Right after SARS doon lang ng pagiisip ang buong mundo about a Public health emergency plan particularly sa Aviation kasi yung ang mabilisan ang exchange ng passenger, mabilis ang human contact. Oras lang, Segundo, minuto, nasa kabilang panig ka na ng mundo. Kasi nga flat world na tayo, ang exchange of everything is a matter of hours.”

The SARS outbreak proved to be instrumental in preparedness for health emergencies as the

world prepared itself for the next big pandemic which came 5 years later in the form of ah1n1 or Avian

Flu. The world, however, did not waste the last 5 years. The WHO along with its partner organizations,

created plans to mitigate the effects of such an event, especially in the Asia-Pacific Region.

“Ang WHO nagsimula sila dito sa Asia kasi ang takot nila dito magsisimula ang problema pero mali sila lahat. Sa takot nila na dito magsimula ang problema pinrepare nila tayo. After ng SARS dumating ang Avian flu h5n1. Nung naproproject na nila yung h5n1 sa ibon palang, ibon to ibon, ibon to tao pero never tao to tao. SO hanggang walang pang tao-to-tao, iprepare na natin. Nakita nila na birds are going to warm countries. Birds ang nagtratransmit at maraming tao sa asia ang kasama ang birds. Nakita nila na pag pumutok ang tao to tao, hindi natin macocontrol ang asia. Pagpumutok sa Asia, patay ang buong mundo. So nung nagkaroon ng scare, rapid containment ang approach. So halimbawa pumutok dito sa manila, sa port area, dapat walang papasok at lalabas dito sa port area para macontain agad ang problema. Kasi nga pag lumabas na di nila macocontrol ang problema. Nakita nila sa SARS. Walang experts, walang technology walang pera walang dami ng population na naka-control.

Sandamakmak ang ginawang exercises na ginawa sa Philippines na ginawa sa Candava, Pampanga. So there was coordination with the LGU’s pati sa mga regional offices ng DOH

hanggang sa central office. Gumagawa sila ng mga scenario tulad ng gusto mong zombie type kung paano macocontain yung simulated h1n1. Pinag-aralan yung definition ng quarantine zone. Pinag-aralan kung paano i-cocontain at padadalhan ng resources ang quarantine para mabuhay yung mga kinaquarantine mo” (Oba, 2014)

In terms of responses, to the threats of highly communicable diseases, the basic process is as follows:

The process starts after the DOH or the Bureau receives the notice of an emerging or re-

emerging disease reported at a specific country. The Bureau would then segregate and check all vehicles

and transports from the area.

The next step would be identifying passengers with symptoms or has been in the immediate

area where the disease was reported. All other passengers that do not satisfy these conditions would be

debriefed. The Bureau has the authority to ask where the passengers would be going and staying for

monitoring purposes. Dr. Oba explains the rationale behind this power:

“Kasi ang incubation period takes days so kung maexpose ang isang tao, not necessarily magkakasakit na. It would take days to develop tsaka ako magkakaroon ng signs and symtoms. So di siya naharang eh di nailabas niya na yung sakit.” (Oba, 2014)

Identification of Affected Areas

Identify passengers with symptoms Debrief plans of

passengers w/o symptoms

Hospitalize Suspected Passengers

Monitor and Evaluate the Condition of the

Basic Quarantine Process

These individuals would then be monitored for a specific duration until the health department is certain

that the individual would not develop the disease. Passengers who exhibit the symptoms however,

would be handed to the DOH and transported to a hospital. Proper measures would be taken to ensure

all protocol would be followed. An example of such protocol is the notification of the embassy that a

national has exhibited the symptoms of disease and appropriate actions are taken.

When asked what the systemic problems are, the quarantine bureau itself has minimal

problems. However, the problems lie with their partner organizations. Dr. Oba is concerned that the

plans might be useless if staffs are undertrained to execute them. He indicated an example of such an

event:

“Dapat marunong sila mag-manage ng disease. After nung nangyari yung Davao Incident, hindi lang dapat safety ang alam ng crew kasi ayun ang mandate ng ICAO. Nung nangyari sa Davao, simpleng nag-overshoot lang yung eroplano, umiyak na yung crew, nataranta at di nakapag-announce yung piloto. Yung initial steps on emergency hindi nasunod. Resulta nun, di nakababa yung ibang eroplano at naapektuhan yung ekonomiya ng Davao. Nasira na tuloy yung imahe ng Pilipinas. Dapat in a matter of minutes dapat tapos na yun. Pero dahil sa katangahan, ang ugat talaga katangahan e. Marunong naman sila mag-demo. Sayaw lang pala yun it does not do anything. Yung actual na di nila magawa.That’s the failure of training without exercise.” (Oba, 2014)

There are also budgetary concerns as Dr. Oba explains the system regarding simulations in the

bureau. The Bureau of Quarantine, along with their partner organizations, relies on table-top

simulations. These are the absolutely minimum requirement in terms of simulations. This process

involves talking about protocols and procedures without actually practicing them. When asked what the

problem was, Dr. Oba simply replied with: “Kung may dalawang million lang tayo e, wala tayong

problema.”

There is also concern of Political Grandstanding wherein politicians and other bureaucrats may

interfere with the system.

“Pag gumawa ka ng Public Health Emergency Plan, hindi pwedeng magtatagal to kasi maraming utak na kasama. At bawat Pilipino, maraming nag-gagrandstanding. At yung mga nag-gagrandstanding yun yung mga walang alam. Yung tanong ng tanong yun yung di talaga alam ng gawin. Pero yung mga nagcocontribute, yun yung masarap kasusap. Basta dapat kilala mo silang lahat at mandato nila para pag nagkaroon ng emergency, tatahimik nalang sila at hindi na sila sasawsaw.Kkasi pag sumawsaw sila lalaki pa ang problema at iquaquarantine mo din sila. So it’s a matter of a CGR (Collaborative Governance Regime)Speaking of CGR, malaki ang difference ng Bureaucrats and the Politicians. Kasi ayan ang pinaka-mahirap i-manage. Bureaucrats ang mga intellectuals at ang Politicians, alam naman natin siguro kung ano sila. Pero sila ang masusunod kasi nasa kanila ang authority.” (Oba, 2014)

Disease Management: DOH-HEMS

The HEMS stand for Health Emergency Management Staff. They are the branch of the DOH

representing the agency in the National Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC). According to Dr. Law their

primary objective is to provide training and technical assistance to local government units in times of

health emergencies.

“So ang nagiging role naming talaga ay nagbibigay ng technical assistance to enhance overall capacity of the government as a whole, as health emergency managers, as leaders siyempre, and as responders.” (Law, 2014)

The technical assistance HEMS provide range from staff training to providing plans in case of

emergencies. In times of the actual disaster, HEMS transition into more of a supervisory role.

“Pero ang role naming ay overall coordination. So sana nakuha mo yung information na iyon. So ayun, ang role ng office naming ay yung large scale coordination. So when it comes to health, kami dito sa office ang nagoorchestrate. Pero marami ring experts na kinukuha at minomobilize. Pero sa emergency at disasters, ayun ang pinaka-program naming dito sa office.”

They are mandated by two legislation. Initially, EO 102 (Redirecting the Functions and

Operations of the Department of Health) created the office. The other legislation is RA 10121 (NDRRMC

Law) which gave the agency power as the disaster response part of the DOH.

In a zombie apocalypse scenario, HEMS would invoke DOH protocols on infectious diseases,

regardless of type. However, their jurisdiction lies only in a domestic setting as is the offices’ mandate.

When asked how different would the scenario be if it started outside the country, Dr. Law expresses

that there are little differences when it comes to their office.

“Halos ganoon din naman paghahanda mo. Kasi anything that can happen outside can happen inside. Pero pag inside dapat effective tayo sa containment response.” (Law, 2014)

The process is as follows:

The process starts as the NEC receives the first alert of a suspected case of a highly contagious

Mobilization of Resources

Initial report to the NEC*

An Examination Team would be sent

Team evaluates and takes samples

Laboratory Testing of Sample (RITM**)

Set-up Quarantine

Identification of the Disease

Propagation of Public Alert Messages

*National Epidemiology Center**Research Institute for Tropical

DOH Response Measure

disease. The NEC is connected to all hospitals in the country. Each of these hospitals is required as per

protocol to report cases of unusual diseases or re-emerging infectious disease.

Once the report has been made, the DOH would next send a team to examine and verify the

report. The team mobilized would be composed of experts from the agency. The investigation would use

case diagnosis wherein experts would try to identify the disease, its origin and other essential

characteristics.

The team would then evaluate the situation. If the number of affected would stay at a

manageable level, then hospital alert levels would rise but not at a dangerous level. If the situation calls

for it, the team can initiate quarantine protocol.

Samples would be taken as a sign of precaution to be transported to the RITM for identification

and testing. If equipment are insufficient for identification, then the DOH may send data to the WHO

and ask for assistance.

“May mga sakit kasi na tinatawag na Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Yun yung mga reportable diseases. So kung may country na may ganon, nirereport agad sa WHO at ang WHO naman ay gumagawa ng mga advisory. Yang WHO kasi ang international diba? Importante ang leadership nila as shown dun sa aH1N1.” (Law, 2014)

Next, the DOH would address the public regarding the nature of the disease and how to take

preventive measures against it. This step is crucial as it provides insurance to the public in order to

prevent panic and mass hysteria.

Lastly, the agency would then mobilize their resources for response and damage mitigation. The

primary concern is logistical organization to transport equipment, personnel, medicine, and vaccines to

affected areas. Other concerns are coordination with the NDRRMC for relief and WHO for research.

When asked what problems are currently in the system, the HEMS office indicates two main

points: Structural Jurisdiction and Political Grandstanding.

The structure of the department of health is devolved. This means that structure-wise, each

component of the department is autonomous with a particular mandate for each. Each office would

have jurisdiction only on a particular field and would require cooperation if the lines would be

encroached upon, thus slowing down the process considerably.

“Kasi ang structure ng health as you know is devolved diba? So ang reach ng administrative powers naming ay hanggang HD (Health Department) lang. Yung isang naidentify na mechanism na magamit, yung mga LGU’s. Kasi ang trabaho naming ay yung mag provide ng assistance yung mga region. Pero there was a mention of that, maraming mga coordinators naming ang nagbabanggit niyan na dapat may mechanism na kinokonekta sa DILG. Pero kasi what we have is may bureau kami dito sa DOH na focused on developing local health systems.” (Law, 2014)

This would mean that beyond the confines of the DOH, the HEMS office does not really have any

authority. This lack of authority would prevent effective pre-emptive response that would mitigate

damages. Dr. Law explains the structural problem they face:

“Kasi devolved nga eh. Yung Local government ang may say e. Minsan nga akala nila kaya nila pero para samin malaki na. As in malaki na ah. Di parin sila hihingi ng tulong. Kaya minsan hirap kami. Di naman pwedeng pumunta ka nalang doon to take over. Di naman yun acceptable. Minsan nga para sa perspective natin malaki na, igigiit nila na kaya nila. Ang definition ng disaster diba pag overwhelmed na sila, di na kaya ng resources nila, tsaka sila hihingi ng tulong. Ayun yung clear. Pero minsan hindi ganoon ang nangyayari.”

This creates for a situation where local government units may continue to act on their own and only

request help from the national government when the situation is already unsalvageable especially in the

scale of our scenario. As for protocol, the current system is as such:

“Kaialangan may request, may declaration. Kaya nga yung kay Roxas diba, ganoon yun? Peronasa batas naman na pag 2 regions na ang affected, national na yun. Pero ayun nga. Ang primary role namin is to support or augment. Pero kung kailanganin sa field dapat ready. Papasok ka doon ng walang report pero nakikita mo sa tv malaki na, di ka pa ba bababa? So ganun yon. Ayan nga yung inaasikaso naming ngayon. Yung rules of engagement. Ano yung criteria? Ano yung indicators. Basta kung papaano kami makakaresponde kaagad. Protocol-wise

naman kasi di ka pwedeng basta-basta nalang pumasok. Kailangan pa ba ng letter? Dapat talaga i-refine yun.” (Law, 2014)

With regards to Political Grandstanding, the pressure would come from two aspects. Firstly, it is

with incompetent politicians.

”Di naman mawawala yun. Mga Political Grandstanding. Ayan yung tanong eh. Sino ba talaga dapat magdedecide, yung mga nasa position o yung mga sa tingin mong may alam talaga, yung experts talaga. Kadalasan naman yung may position diba? Halimbawa ikaw boss ko, ako mas may alam, ikaw parin masusunod.” (Law, 2014)

The consequences of mismanagement due to incompetent politicians are quite severe. The best

example given by Dr. Lao is the Yolanda Incident where political grandstanding caused strain in the relief

system. Another aspect of Political Grandstanding that would strain the system is media pressure.

Reports made by members of the media may induce public anxiety especially in times of national

disasters. However, Dr. Law also acknowledges the importance of crucial and responsible reporting.

“Ang problema talaga ay kung nagkasabay-sabay sila at nagkagulo. Lalo na yung may intense media pressure. Basta ayun yun mga napapanuod natin sa TV – yung worst case scenario. Minsan kasi yung pressure diba? Pero I think na-manage naman nila ng maayos yun nung nakaraan. Nabigyan ng tamang information yung mga tao. Di sila nagpanic, at alam nila kung ano dapat gawin as far as health is concerned. Yung tipong pag nagkaroon ka ng ganitong symptoms, patingin ka ng maaga.”

Evaluation Stage

BoQ Response Reliability

Interestingly enough, the failure modes of the Bureau of Quarantine’s response mechanism

apply to the system itself and not in any specific component. There are three main points wherein the

system may fail.

The Bureau of Quarantine’s foremost data source is the World Health Organization. Quarantine

relies on the knowledge about the disease. Dr. Oba recalls the past experiences of the SARS outbreak

wherein:

“Yung dumating yung SARS, lahat blinded. Lahat hindi alam ang gagawen – even the USA, even the WHO. Wala silang guidelines, walang simple measures. Wala siyang masabi sa contracting states. Hingan mo siya ng tanong, ang isasagot sayo: “nag-aaral pa kami.”” (Oba, 2014)

The mere fact that the WHO cannot give a definite answer in the earlier phases of the pandemic

explains how and why the disease became successful in its own right. The best counter-measure for

which is the selective quarantine of anything that comes from the affected area. The trade-off of course

is economic in nature. Another aspect of this is the world’s lack of measures for BNRC (Biological,

Nuclear, Radiological and Chemical) cases.

Identification of Affected Areas

Identify passengers with

symptomsDebrief plans of passengers w/o

symptoms

Hospitalize Suspected Passengers

Monitor and Evaluate the

Condition of the

Quarantine Failure Modes

Unidentifiable Symptoms/ Misdiagnosis

Passengers Break Quarantine

Unreliable Staff

The possibility of passengers breaking quarantine comes in two prospects: by force and by

stealth. The prospect by force is through rioting and escaping the quarantine zone. The HEMS office

warns against this by reminding that:

“Public health issue yan e. Parang may mga kami na pwedeng gamitin. Especially sa mga quarantine. Pwede kang ipaneutralize ka sa pulis pag di ka susunod.” (Law, 2014)

People can also break the quarantine by using means that are not supervised by the government such as

the illegal crossing for borders using small boats in the Mindanao Area.

The last issue is the inability of staff to perform their duties. It is not necessarily the bureau’s

staff, which tends to focus on their partners. Again we refer to the Davao incident:

“Dapat marunong sila mag-manage ng disease. After nung nangyari yung Davao Incident, hindi lang dapat safety ang alam ng crew kasi ayun ang mandate ng ICAO. Nung nangyari sa Davao, simpleng nag-overshoot lang yung eroplano, umiyak na yung crew, nataranta at di nakapag-announce yung piloto. Yung initial steps on emergency hindi nasunod. Resulta nun, di nakababa yung ibang eroplano at naapektuhan yung ekonomiya ng Davao. Nasira na tuloy yung imahe ng Pilipinas. Dapat in a matter of minutes dapat tapos na yun. Pero dahil sa katangahan, ang ugat talaga katangahan e. Marunong naman sila mag-demo. Sayaw lang pala yun it does not do anything. Yung actual na di nila magawa.That’s the failure of training without exercise.” (Oba, 2014)

DOH-HEMS Response Reliability

Failure modes are defined as “incidents during the response mechanisms which would cause a

component to fail.” (Faith et. al, 2010) These are the problems identified by HEMS office that might

happen during a zombie pandemic.

The initial concern for Dr. Law was the safety and security of medical personnel. Dr. Law

highlighted the fact that health workers are people too. There are two possible reasons how teams and

responders would disappear: abandonment and the possibility of them contracting the disease.

“Kung gaanon ang scenario kailangan mo na ng tao. Lahat magiging victims na e. Pati mga doctor matatakot. Magiging survival mode na. Pag nawala yung health workers, yung nagkasakit din o kaya naman natakot din.” (Law, 2014)

However this can be remedied by transferring work force from other areas. The concern is that

transferring workers would contribute to the consumption of the already limited resources.

“Nareremedyohan naman yan. Pwede kumuha ng tao sa ibang areas. Ang problema kung sa sobrang laki paralyzed din yung other areas. Kung ganoong na, Irereport sa WHO para sila naman magpadala ng teams na pupunta dito. Ang problema talaga pag kulang sa tao at resources.” (Law, 2014)

The next failure mode is the failure of quarantine. Like most diseases, a zombie epidemic would

be easier to manage if confined to a single area. Dr. Law, stressed the importance of a quarantine in this

kind of situation.

Mobilization of

Initial An Examination Team Team evaluates and Laboratory Testing of

Set-up Quarantine

Identification of the Propagation of Public

*National Epidemiology Center**Research Institute for Tropical Medicine

DOH Failure Modes

Team Disappears

Quarantine Fails

Public Panic and Hysteria

Insufficient Resources

“Number 1 na problema kung sobrang laki ng magnitude niya. Ang problema talaga ay kung nagkasabay-sabay sila at nagkagulo. Lalo na yung may intense media pressure. Basta ayun yun mga napapanuod natin sa TV – yung worst case scenario. Problema din diyan yung security diba? Lalo na sa quarantine.”

Most experts, such as Hudea et. al (2009) however, argues that there is no perfect (local) quarantine.

However, Dr. Oba (2014) argues that the Philippines naturally has that in the form of the stopping power

of water. The Philippines, as an archipelago, can create a perfect quarantine. The cost is that it is

logistically improbably especially if it involves major islands such as Luzon.

Another failure mode is the Panic and hysteria caused by the disease. Dr. Law stresses the

importance of having control over the general populace in this kind of situation. Dr. Law emphasizes

that the government should in fact keep the “lifelines” running as long as possible.

“Ang magpapalala talaga ay yung kawalan ng lifelines. Yun yung kuryente, communications. Mga tipong ganun. Pag nawala yang mga yan mahirap na. Sa tingin ko nga mga tao problema rin yan e. Pagnagkaroon ng breakdown ng society, may panic at chaos. Yung tipong dudumugin yung mga pharmacies, drug stores, labs, para makuha yung mga vaccines. Yun mga worst case mga yun.”

The final and most crucial failure mode is the scenario of insufficient resources. HEMS anticipate

the event of a zombie pandemic scenario as one of national concern. The sheer magnitude of

stakeholders in such an event would be a logistical nightmare for the health office.

“Kasi sa ganyan resources ang kailangan mo e. Kailangan ng manpower. Kung gaanon ang scenario kailangan mo na ng tao.Lahat magiging victims na e. pati mga doctor matatakot. Magiging survival mode na. National Event kasi yan, pag nangyari yan kukuha ka ng resources, ieexhaust mo talaga. Pero kukulangin ka talaga. Lalo na pag maraming na test na positive, lahat yun mapipilitan kang iaccomodate. Magkakaroon ng medical surge. Lahat yun gagamutin o kaya bibigyan ng gamot.” (Law, 2014)

When asked what can be improved the HEMS office gave a clear and definite answer. Though for this

answer, the office used the lens acquired from the experience of Typhoon Yolanda:

“May 5 areas kasi na tinitignan. Kasi sa planning, maganda na worst-case scenario ang tinitignan. Yun nga yung nangyari sa Yolanda. Una yung Logistics, dapat kumpleto talaga yan. Gamit, sasakyan. Pangalawa yung mga policies. Dapat balikan at ayusin kung paano ma-implement. Kasi minsan di nakakarating sa baba e. Tapos baka kailangan pang gumawa.

Kailangan pag-aralan. Next ay yung mga response teams. Dapat hindi si parang dukha, may proper equipment, prepared psychologically. Isa pa yung Systems. Yung tipong communications. Halimbawa maraming mga boss, sino na ba yung masusunod, in what instance? May mga plan naman pero dapat mas refined. Meron din dapat mga drills and resources para ma-praktis lahat ng mga to. Pero maganda nga yung mga partnerships. Malaki kasi talaga naiitutulong niyan. Sa Yolanda, yung mga foreign. Pero ok din yung inter-agency.” (Law, 2014)

Analysis

Both the Bureau of Quarantine and DOH-HEMS have solid and reliable measures to prevent and

mitigate the damages that would be caused by pandemics. In fact, our quarantine is one of the most

advanced in the region. Work has also been started to improve and explore possibilities in health

emergency management.

If we look at the procedures and failure modes of each office, we can see that these generally

are failure modes for regular communicable diseases. The problem is that if we take into consideration

that our scenario is a zombie pandemic, then almost all of the failure models are satisfied by the

scenario synthesized.

Failure ModelProbability

of Occurrence

Explanation

Quarantine

Non-Diagnosable Disease HighToo many unknown mechanisms about the disease

Conscious breaking of quarantine Mid The sheer magnitude would collapse the system (Hudea et. al, 2009)

Unreliable Staff High There is no training and module for a zombie apocalypse scenario

DOH-HEMSTeam Disappears High

The possibility of teams not returning are uncertain but the possibility is there

Quarantine Fails High The sheer magnitude would collapse the system (Hudea et. al, 2009)

Public Panic Very High Given the Filipino Culture of Disasters, it is highly possible (Bankoff, 2004)

Insufficient Resources Very High Budgetary and logistical experience shown in Yolanda response

However, Faith et. al (2010) reminds us that even if a failure model is satisfied, it does not

necessarily mean that the component would immediately fail.

Other interesting findings are the current problems that each agency or office are facing.

Surprisingly both identify a problem of political grandstanding wherein politicians’ actions create

unneeded stress and pressure for the think tanks in the bureaucracy. Budgetary concerns are also aired

as increased budget would increase efficiency in performance and eliminate a failure mode of unreliable

staffing.

Another similarity is the structural challenges both offices have. For Quarantine, it is more of a

coordination issue with the many partner organizations. This is outweighed however, by the legal

mandate of the organization. Problems arise when each component of the system are unaware of the

command structure and mandates of their partners. On the other hand, DOH-HEMS, problem is that

they have no jurisdiction outside their department because of the devolved structure of the agency. This

of course is resolved by creating projects that would partner themselves with the LGU’s as Dr. Law

suggested.

“Pero sa ngayon, we’re trying to institutionalize, so hinahanap na rin namin. Pero tama, dapat ilink ng maayos sa DILG.” (Law, 2014)

The good thing is that each agency has projects to develop policy and provide services better.

This would indicate that improvements are on the way. The important factor here is the support of the

government and our partners in the international system.

Factoring in the details gathered, the presumption is that if a zombie pandemic would emerge,

the Philippines is not ready for such an event – as is all other countries for that matter. But the trends

indicate that as time increases, so will our capabilities to respond to such an event.

Conclusion and Recommendations

This research has found anticipated results after drafting a Zombie pandemic scenario,

recognising government actions, determining failure modes and comparing the failure modes to the

projected zombie pandemic scenario. The research shows that ultimately, the Philippines is unready for

such an event. However, it is highly likely that the rest of the world isn’t either.

The researcher would like to propose two recommendations for future studies. Firstly, the study

indicates that the front lines for health emergencies (or any other disaster for that matter) are LGU’s. It

would be beneficial if there would be comprehensive and detailed studies about the actual

preparedness level of LGU’s as compared to the data given by the DILG. Secondly, this study only

focused on the primary actors during a pandemic. It would be beneficial if a similar study would be

conducted including all components of the NDRRMC.

This study has been a theoretical simulation for an unknown disease that might emerge in the

possible future. The Philippines has always had an ad hoc and reactionary stance in policy making. The

researcher urges policy makers to act now. We do not have to wait for such an event to happen before

we do something about it. Zombies or no zombies, preparedness for pandemics in general would be

beneficial for the country and the people it represents.

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