age structure & the democratic future
DESCRIPTION
Richard Cincotta's presentation at the 30th Annual Monetary & Trade ConferenceTRANSCRIPT
Age Structure & the
Democratic Future
Richard Cincotta
The Stimson Center
Drexell U.
Philadelphia, PA 24 APRIL, 2012
Cincotta & Hummel, 2009
The Demographic Transition
Cincotta & Hummel, 2009
The world’s
country-level
age structures
2010
Richard Cincotta
DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2011
Four categories: four individual countries, 2010
Age structural Classes: Japan 1935 to 2025. Class
Median age range
Intermediate
25 – 35 yrs
Post-mature
45 – 55 yrs
Youthful
15 – 25 yrs
Mature
35 – 45 yrs
Cincotta, in press
(69.2 million) (104.4 million)
(Population)
(123.2 million) (120.8 million)
High incidence of intra-
state conflict
Rise of stable liberal democracy
Debt challenges Rapid econ. growth
Age Structure and Trends in State Behavior
15 25 35 45 55
Median Age
Trends in age-structural phases
Gains & Losses to Liberal Democracy
Data: UN 2010 Rev.
Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
Youthful
Youthful 5 yrs ago
Youthful states
Data: UN 2010 Rev.
Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
Youthful
Youthful 5 yrs ago
Youthful states
from Barnett, 2004
Youthful states
Data: UN 2010 Rev.
Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
Youthful
Youthful 5 yrs ago
Data: UN 2010 Rev.
Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
Youthful states
Youthful
Youthful 5 yrs ago
Data: UN 2010 Rev.
Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
Youthful states
Youthful
Youthful 5 yrs ago
Age structures: 2010
Age structures: 2030